Phenotypic plasticity alone cannot explain climate‐induced change in avian migration timing

Recent climate change has been linked to shifts in the timing of life-cycle events in many organisms, but there is debate over the degree to which phenological changes are caused by evolved genetic responses of populations or by phenotypic plasticity of individuals. We estimated plasticity of spring arrival date in 27 species of bird that breed in the vicinity of an observatory in eastern North America. For 2441 individuals detected in multiple years, arrival occurred earlier during warm years, especially in species that migrate short distances. Phenotypic plasticity averaged −0.93 days °C⁻¹ ± 0.70 (95% CI). However, plasticity accounted for only 13–25% of the climate-induced trend in phenology observed over 46 years. Although our approach probably underestimates the full scope of plasticity, the data suggest that part of the response to environmental change has been caused by microevolution. The estimated evolutionary rates are plausible (0.016 haldanes).     

Phenological shifts in North American red squirrels: disentangling the roles of phenotypic plasticity and microevolution

Phenological shifts are the most widely reported ecological responses to climate change, but the requirements to distinguish their causes (i.e. phenotypic plasticity vs. microevolution) are rarely met. To do so, we analysed almost two decades of parturition data from a wild population of North American red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus). Although an observed advance in parturition date during the first decade provided putative support for climate change‐driven microevolution, a closer look revealed a more complex pattern. Parturition date was heritable [h² = 0.14 (0.07–0.21 (HPD interval)] and under phenotypic selection [β = ?0.14 ± 0.06 (SE)] across the full study duration. However, the early advance reversed in the second decade. Further, selection did not act on the genetic contribution to variation in parturition date, and observed changes in predicted breeding values did not exceed those expected due to genetic drift. Instead, individuals responded plastically to environmental variation, and high food [white spruce (Picea glauca) seed] production in the first decade appears to have produced a plastic advance. In addition, there was little evidence of climate change affecting the advance, as there was neither a significant influence of spring temperature on parturition date or evidence of a change in spring temperatures across the study duration. Heritable traits not responding to selection in accordance with quantitative genetic predictions have long presented a puzzle to evolutionary ecologists. Our results on red squirrels provide empirical support for one potential solution: phenotypic selection arising from an environmental, as opposed to genetic, covariance between the phenotypic trait and annual fitness.     

Transgenerational and within‐generation plasticity shape thermal performance curves

Thermal performance curves (TPCs) compute the effects of temperature on the performance of ectotherms and are frequently used to predict the effect of environmental conditions and currently, climate change, on organismal vulnerability and sensitivity. Using Drosophila melanogaster as an animal model, we examined how different thermal environments affected the shape of the performance curve and their parameters. We measured the climbing speed as a measure of locomotor performance in adult flies and tested the ontogenetic and transgenerational effects of thermal environment on TPC shape. Parents and offspring were reared at 28 ± 0ºC (28C), 28 ± 4ºC (28V), and 30 ± 0ºC (30C). We found that both, environmental thermal variability (28V) and high temperature (30C) experienced during early ontogeny shaped the fruit fly TPC sensitivity. Flies reared at variable thermal environments shifted the TPC to the right and increased heat tolerance. Flies held at high and constant temperature exhibited lower maximum performance than flies reared at the variable thermal environment. Furthermore, these effects were extended to the next generation. The parental thermal environment had a significative effect on TPC and its parameters. Indeed, flies reared at 28V whose parents were held at a high and constant temperature (30C) had a lower heat tolerance than F1 of flies reared at 28C or 28V. Also, offspring of flies reared at variable thermal environment (28V) reached the maximum performance at a higher temperature than offspring of flies reared at 28C or 30C. Consequently, since TPC parameters are not fixed, we suggest cautiousness when using TPCs to predict the impact of climate change on natural populations.     

Snowshoe hares display limited phenotypic plasticity to mismatch in seasonal camouflage

As duration of snow cover decreases owing to climate change, species undergoing seasonal colour moults can become colour mismatched with their background. The immediate adaptive solution to this mismatch is phenotypic plasticity, either in phenology of seasonal colour moults or in behaviours that reduce mismatch or its consequences. We observed nearly 200 snowshoe hares across a wide range of snow conditions and two study sites in Montana, USA, and found minimal plasticity in response to mismatch between coat colour and background. We found that moult phenology varied between study sites, likely due to differences in photoperiod and climate, but was largely fixed within study sites with only minimal plasticity to snow conditions during the spring white-to-brown moult. We also found no evidence that hares modify their behaviour in response to colour mismatch. Hiding and fleeing behaviours and resting spot preference of hares were more affected by variables related to season, site and concealment by vegetation, than by colour mismatch. We conclude that plasticity in moult phenology and behaviours in snowshoe hares is insufficient for adaptation to camouflage mismatch, suggesting that any future adaptation to climate change will require natural selection on moult phenology or behaviour.     

Genome‐wide association mapping for phenotypic plasticity in rice

Phenotypic plasticity of plants in response to environmental changes is important for adapting to changing climate. Less attention has been paid to exploring the advantages of phenotypic plasticity in resource‐rich environments to enhance the productivity of agricultural crops. Here, we examined genetic variation for phenotypic plasticity in indica rice (Oryza sativa L.) across two diverse panels: (1) a Phenomics of Rice Adaptation and Yield (PRAY) population comprising 301 accessions; and (2) a Multi‐parent Advanced Generation Inter‐Cross (MAGIC) indica population comprising 151 accessions. Altered planting density was used as a proxy for elevated atmospheric CO₂ response. Low planting density significantly increased panicle weight per plant compared with normal density, and the magnitude of the increase ranged from 1.10 to 2.78 times among accessions for the PRAY population and from 1.05 to 2.45 times for the MAGIC population. Genome‐wide‐association studies validate three E nvironmental R esponsiveness (ER) candidate alleles (qER1–3) that were associated with relative response of panicle weight to low density. Two of these alleles were tested in 13 genotypes to clarify their biomass responses during vegetative growth under elevated CO₂ in Japan. Our study provides evidence for polymorphisms that control rice phenotypic plasticity in environments that are rich in resources such as light and CO₂.     

The biology hidden inside residual within‐individual phenotypic variation

Phenotypes vary hierarchically among taxa and populations, among genotypes within populations, among individuals within genotypes, and also within individuals for repeatedly expressed, labile phenotypic traits. This hierarchy produces some fundamental challenges to clearly defining biological phenomena and constructing a consistent explanatory framework. We use a heuristic statistical model to explore two consequences of this hierarchy. First, although the variation existing among individuals within populations has long been of interest to evolutionary biologists, within‐individual variation has been much less emphasized. Within‐individual variance occurs when labile phenotypes (behaviour, physiology, and sometimes morphology) exhibit phenotypic plasticity or deviate from a norm‐of‐reaction within the same individual. A statistical partitioning of phenotypic variance leads us to explore an array of ideas about residual within‐individual variation. We use this approach to draw attention to additional processes that may influence within‐individual phenotypic variance, including interactions among environmental factors, ecological effects on the fitness consequences of plasticity, and various types of adaptive variance. Second, our framework for investigating variation in phenotypic variance reveals that interactions between levels of the hierarchy form the preconditions for the evolution of all types of plasticity, and we extend this idea to the residual level within individuals, where both adaptive plasticity in residuals and canalization‐like processes (stability) can evolve. With the statistical tools now available to examine heterogeneous residual variance, an array of novel questions linking phenotype to environment can be usefully addressed.     

The role of phenotypic plasticity in responses of hunted thinhorn sheep ram horn growth to changing climate conditions

When phenotypic change occurs over time in wildlife populations, it can be difficult to determine to what degree it is because of genetic effects or phenotypic plasticity. Here, we assess phenotypic changes over time in horn length and volume of thinhorn sheep (Ovis dalli) rams from Yukon Territory, Canada. We considered 42 years of horn growth from over 50 000 growth measurements in over 8000 individuals. We found that weather explained a large proportion of the annual fluctuation in horn growth, being particularly sensitive to spring weather. Only 2.5% of variance in horn length growth could be explained by an individual effect, and thus any genetic changes over the time period could only have had a small effect on phenotypes. Our findings allow insight into the capacity for horn morphology to react to selection pressures and demonstrate the overall importance of climate in determining growth.     

Multiple simultaneous treatments change plant response from adaptive parental effects to within‐generation plasticity,in Arabidopsis thaliana

In general, studies on plant phenotypic plasticity concentrate on plant responses to different levels of a single environmental factor. Under natural conditions, however, multiple environmental factors often vary simultaneously. I studied the consequences for lifetime fitness caused by single treatments or treatment combinations by investigating patterns of phenotypic plasticity within and between generations. The parental plants (three genotypes of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana) received zero, one or two stress treatments at an early life‐stage. The treatments included wounding, shading, chilling, and their pairwise combinations. In the second generation, offspring of treated plants received either the parental or no treatment. Offspring of non‐treated plants were reared under all treatment conditions. Plants responded strongly to the treatments, especially through delayed reproduction, which positively affected lifetime fitness. Notably, treatment combinations triggered stronger plastic responses on average. Because the delay in reproduction was offset by a delay in senescence, the treatments resulted in a fitness gain instead of a loss. However, under adverse environmental conditions, this delay represents a potential fitness cost, especially when the time for reproduction is limited. The treatments ‘wounding’ and ‘shading’ triggered parental effects that increased fitness only in plants that themselves received the treatment. Untreated offspring of wounded or shaded parents performed like control plants. Also, these parental effects were not accompanied by potential fitness costs, such as delayed reproduction. Chilling triggered genotype‐specific parental effects that increased or reduced fitness. Of the treatment combinations only ‘wounding’ and ‘shading’ resulted in genotype‐specific parental effects that increased or reduced fitness independently of offspring treatment. These results suggest that the response of annual plants to treatment combinations triggers predominantly within‐generation plastic responses that include potential fitness costs, which cannot be inferred from studies that manipulate environmental factors individually. Therefore, single treatment studies likely underestimate the costs of plasticity in natural environments.     

Lower plasticity exhibited by high- versus mid-elevation species in their phenological responses to manipulated temperature and drought

Background and Aims Recent global changes, particularly warming and drought, have had worldwide repercussions on the timing of flowering events for many plant species. Phenological shifts have also been reported in alpine environments, where short growing seasons and low temperatures make reproduction particularly challenging, requiring fine-tuning to environmental cues. However, it remains unclear if species from such habitats, with their specific adaptations, harbour the same potential for phenological plasticity as species from less demanding habitats.Methods Fourteen congeneric species pairs originating from mid and high elevation were reciprocally transplanted to common gardens at 1050 and 2000 m a.s.l. that mimic prospective climates and natural field conditions. A drought treatment was implemented to assess the combined effects of temperature and precipitation changes on the onset and duration of reproductive phenophases. A phenotypic plasticity index was calculated to evaluate if mid- and high-elevation species harbour the same potential for plasticity in reproductive phenology.Key Results Transplantations resulted in considerable shifts in reproductive phenology, with highly advanced initiation and shortened phenophases at the lower (and warmer) site for both mid- and high-elevation species. Drought stress amplified these responses and induced even further advances and shortening of phenophases, a response consistent with an ‘escape strategy’. The observed phenological shifts were generally smaller in number of days for high-elevation species and resulted in a smaller phenotypic plasticity index, relative to their mid-elevation congeners.Conclusions While mid- and high-elevation species seem to adequately shift their reproductive phenology to track ongoing climate changes, high-elevation species were less capable of doing so and appeared more genetically constrained to their specific adaptations to an extreme environment (i.e. a short, cold growing season).     

Phenotypic plasticity in breeding plumage signals in both sexes of a migratory bird: responses to breeding conditions

Adaptive phenotypic plasticity may respond to present ambient conditions. Sexual and social signals in both sexes may express phenotype performance. Plumage signals that change discontinuously allow relating discrete variation to previous performance. Both sexes of the pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca present white patches on the wings and on the forehead, which constitute sexual and social signals. Forehead patches are moulted together with body plumage in Africa, while wing patches are partly moulted in Africa and partly in the breeding area soon after breeding. We studied individual inter‐year changes (corrected for regression to the mean) in the size of forehead and wing patches of both sexes in seven years for females or six years for males in two nearby study areas in central Spain. We found that initial signal extent strongly delimits the possible subsequent changes negatively. There is a negative association of male age with forehead patch changes. Cold and rainy springs are associated in females with decreases in both patch areas and vice versa, while no association with climate is observed in male wing patch changes. Cold pre‐breeding conditions predict positive changes in female wing and male forehead patches. Breeding success is positively associated with forehead patch changes in females. Late‐breeding males experience more positive changes in forehead patch size than early‐breeding males. Some of these trends can be explained by variable costs of breeding in certain conditions for subsequent signal production and/or maintenance, while absence of trends in some cases may be explained by sex differences in costs of breeding and interactions with phenotypic quality of breeders.     

Keeping up with a warming world; assessing the rate of adaptation to climate change

The pivotal question in the debate on the ecological effects of climate change is whether species will be able to adapt fast enough to keep up with their changing environment. If we establish the maximal rate of adaptation, this will set an upper limit to the rate at which temperatures can increase without loss of biodiversity.The rate of adaptation will primarily be set by the rate of microevolution since (i) phenotypic plasticity alone is not sufficient as reaction norms will no longer be adaptive and hence microevolution on the reaction norm is needed, (ii) learning will be favourable to the individual but cannot be passed on to the next generations, (iii) maternal effects may play a role but, as with other forms of phenotypic plasticity, the response of offspring to the maternal cues will no longer be adaptive in a changing environment, and (iv) adaptation via immigration of individuals with genotypes adapted to warmer environments also involves microevolution as these genotypes are better adapted in terms of temperature, but not in terms of, for instance, photoperiod.Long-term studies on wild populations with individually known animals play an essential role in detecting and understanding the temporal trends in life-history traits, and to estimate the heritability of, and selection pressures on, life-history traits. However, additional measurements on other trophic levels and on the mechanisms underlying phenotypic plasticity are needed to predict the rate of microevolution, especially under changing conditions.Using this knowledge on heritability of, and selection on, life-history traits, in combination with climate scenarios, we will be able to predict the rate of adaptation for different climate scenarios. The final step is to use ecoevolutionary dynamical models to make the link to population viability and from there to biodiversity loss for those scenarios where the rate of adaptation is insufficient.     

The early‐life environment and individual plasticity in life‐history traits

We tested whether the early‐life environment can influence the extent of individual plasticity in a life‐history trait. We asked: can the early‐life environment explain why, in response to the same adult environmental cue, some individuals invest more than others in current reproduction? Moreover, can it additionally explain why investment in current reproduction trades off against survival in some individuals, but is positively correlated with survival in others? We addressed these questions using the burying beetle, which breeds on small carcasses and sometimes carries phoretic mites. These mites breed alongside the beetle, on the same resource, and are a key component of the beetle's early‐life environment. We exposed female beetles to mites twice during their lives: during their development as larvae and again as adults during their first reproductive event. We measured investment in current reproduction by quantifying average larval mass and recorded the female's life span after breeding to quantify survival. We found no effect of either developing or breeding alongside mites on female reproductive investment, nor on her life span, nor did developing alongside mites influence her size. In post hoc analyses, where we considered the effect of mite number (rather than their mere presence/absence) during the female's adult breeding event, we found that females invested more in current reproduction when exposed to greater mite densities during reproduction, but only if they had been exposed to mites during development as well. Otherwise, they invested less in larvae at greater mite densities. Furthermore, females that had developed with mites exhibited a trade‐off between investment in current reproduction and future survival, whereas these traits were positively correlated in females that had developed without mites. The early‐life environment thus generates individual variation in life‐history plasticity. We discuss whether this is because mites influence the resources available to developing young or serve as important environmental cues.     

Behavioural responses to human‐induced environmental change

The initial response of individuals to human‐induced environmental change is often behavioural. This can improve the performance of individuals under sudden, large‐scale perturbations and maintain viable populations. The response can also give additional time for genetic changes to arise and, hence, facilitate adaptation to new conditions. On the other hand, maladaptive responses, which reduce individual fitness, may occur when individuals encounter conditions that the population has not experienced during its evolutionary history, which can decrease population viability. A growing number of studies find human disturbances to induce behavioural responses, both directly and by altering factors that influence fitness. Common causes of behavioural responses are changes in the transmission of information, the concentration of endocrine disrupters, the availability of resources, the possibility of dispersal, and the abundance of interacting species. Frequent responses are alterations in habitat choice, movements, foraging, social behaviour and reproductive behaviour. Behavioural responses depend on the genetically determined reaction norm of the individuals, which evolves over generations. Populations first respond with individual behavioural plasticity, whereafter changes may arise through innovations and the social transmission of behavioural patterns within and across generations, and, finally, by evolution of the behavioural response over generations. Only a restricted number of species show behavioural adaptations that make them thrive in severely disturbed environments. Hence, rapid human‐induced disturbances often decrease the diversity of native species, while facilitating the spread of invasive species with highly plastic behaviours. Consequently, behavioural responses to human‐induced environmental change can have profound effects on the distribution, adaptation, speciation and extinction of populations and, hence, on biodiversity. A better understanding of the mechanisms of behavioural responses and their causes and consequences could improve our ability to predict the effects of human‐induced environmental change on individual species and on biodiversity.     

Characterizing the contribution of plasticity and genetic differentiation to community‐level trait responses to environmental change

The match between functional trait variation in communities and environmental gradients is maintained by three processes: phenotypic plasticity and genetic differentiation (intraspecific processes), and species turnover (interspecific). Recently, evidence has emerged suggesting that intraspecific variation might have a potentially large role in driving functional community composition and response to environmental change. However, empirical evidence quantifying the respective importance of phenotypic plasticity and genetic differentiation relative to species turnover is still lacking. We performed a reciprocal transplant experiment using a common herbaceous plant species (Oxalis montana) among low‐, mid‐, and high‐elevation sites to first quantify the contributions of plasticity and genetic differentiation in driving intraspecific variation in three traits: height, specific leaf area, and leaf area. We next compared the contributions of these intraspecific drivers of community trait–environment matching to that of species turnover, which had been previously assessed along the same elevational gradient. Plasticity was the dominant driver of intraspecific trait variation across elevation in all traits, with only a small contribution of genetic differentiation among populations. Local adaptation was not detected to a major extent along the gradient. Fitness components were greatest in O. montana plants with trait values closest to the local community‐weighted means, thus supporting the common assumption that community‐weighted mean trait values represent selective optima. Our results suggest that community‐level trait responses to ongoing climate change should be mostly mediated by species turnover, even at the small spatial scale of our study, with an especially small contribution of evolutionary adaptation within species.     

Phenological plasticity is a poor predictor of subalpine plant population performance following experimental climate change

Phenological shifts, changes in the seasonal timing of life cycle events, are among the best documented responses of species to climate change. However, the consequences of these phenological shifts for population dynamics remain unclear. Population growth could be enhanced if species that advance their phenology benefit from longer growing seasons and gain a pre-emptive advantage in resource competition. However, it might also be reduced if phenological advances increase exposure to stresses, such as herbivores and, in colder climates, harsh abiotic conditions early in the growing season. We exposed subalpine grasslands to ~3 K of warming by transplanting intact turfs from 2000 m to 1400 m elevation in the eastern Swiss Alps, with turfs transplanted within the 2000 m site acting as a control. In the first growing season after transplantation, we recorded species’ flowering phenology at both elevations. We also measured species’ cover change for three consecutive years as a measure of plant performance. We used models to estimate species’ phenological plasticity (the response of flowering time to the change in climate) and analysed its relationship with cover changes following climate change. The phenological plasticity of the 18 species in our study varied widely but was unrelated to their changes in cover. Moreover, early- and late-flowering species did not differ in their cover response to warming, nor in the relationship between cover changes and phenological plasticity. These results were replicated in a similar transplant experiment within the same subalpine community, established one year earlier and using larger turfs. We discuss the various ecological processes that can be affected by phenological shifts, and argue why the population-level consequences of these shifts are likely to be species- and context-specific. Our results highlight the importance of testing assumptions about how warming-induced changes in phenotypic traits, like phenology, impact population dynamics.     

Plasticity results in delayed breeding in a long‐distant migrant seabird

A major question for conservationists and evolutionary biologists is whether natural populations can adapt to rapid environmental change through micro‐evolution or phenotypic plasticity. Making use of 17 years of data from a colony of a long‐distant migratory seabird, the common tern (Sterna hirundo), we examined phenotypic plasticity and the evolutionary potential of breeding phenology, a key reproductive trait. We found that laying date was strongly heritable (0.27 ± 0.09) and under significant fecundity selection for earlier laying. Paradoxically, and in contrast to patterns observed in most songbird populations, laying date became delayed over the study period, by about 5 days. The discrepancy between the observed changes and those predicted from selection on laying date was explained by substantial phenotypic plasticity. The plastic response in laying date did not vary significantly among individuals. Exploration of climatic factors showed individual responses to the mean sea surface temperature in Senegal in December prior to breeding: Common terns laid later following warmer winters in Senegal. For each 1°C of warming of the sea surface in Senegal, common terns delayed their laying date in northern Germany by 6.7 days. This suggests that warmer waters provide poorer wintering resources. We therefore found that substantial plastic response to wintering conditions can oppose natural selection, perhaps constraining adaptation.