Can the tropical conservatism hypothesis explain temperate species richness patterns? An inverse latitudinal biodiversity gradient in the New World snake tribe Lampropeltini

Aim  A latitudinal gradient in species richness, defined as a decrease in biodiversity away from the equator, is one of the oldest known patterns in ecology and evolutionary biology. However, there are also many known cases of increasing poleward diversity, forming inverse latitudinal biodiversity gradients. As only three processes (speciation, extinction and dispersal) can directly affect species richness in areas, similar factors may be responsible for both classical (high tropical diversity) and inverse (high temperate diversity) gradients. Thus, a modified explanation for differential species richness which accounts for both patterns would be preferable to one which only explains high tropical biodiversity.
Location  The New World.
Methods  We test several proposed ecological, temporal, evolutionary and spatial explanations for latitudinal diversity gradients in the New World snake tribe Lampropeltini, which exhibits its highest biodiversity in temperate regions.
Results  We find that an extratropical peak in species richness is not explained by latitudinal variation in diversification rate, the mid-domain effect, or Rapoport's rule. Rather, earlier colonization and longer duration in the temperate zones allowing more time for speciation to increase biodiversity, phylogenetic niche conservatism limiting tropical dispersal and the expansion of the temperate zones in the Tertiary better explain inverse diversity gradients in this group.
Main conclusions  Our conclusions are the inverse of the predictions made by the tropical conservatism hypothesis to explain higher biodiversity near the equator. Therefore, we suggest that the processes invoked are not intrinsic to the tropics but are dependent on historical biogeography to determine the distribution of species richness, which we refer to as the 'biogeographical conservatism hypothesis'.     

Latitudinal species diversity gradient of marine zooplankton for the last three million years

High tropical and low polar biodiversity is one of the most fundamental patterns characterising marine ecosystems, and the influence of temperature on such marine latitudinal diversity gradients is increasingly well documented. However, the temporal stability of quantitative relationships among diversity, latitude and temperature is largely unknown. Herein we document marine zooplankton species diversity patterns at four time slices [modern, Last Glacial Maximum (18 000 years ago), last interglacial (120 000 years ago), and Pliocene (~3.3–3.0 million years ago)] and show that, although the diversity‐latitude relationship has been dynamic, diversity‐temperature relationships are remarkably constant over the past three million years. These results suggest that species diversity is rapidly reorganised as species' ranges respond to temperature change on ecological time scales, and that the ecological impact of future human‐induced temperature change may be partly predictable from fossil and paleoclimatological records.     

Global patterns of stream detritivore distribution: implications for biodiversity loss in changing climates

Aim We tested the hypothesis that shredder detritivores, a key trophic guild in stream ecosystems, are more diverse at higher latitudes, which has important ecological implications in the face of potential biodiversity losses that are expected as a result of climate change. We also explored the dependence of local shredder diversity on the regional species pool across latitudes, and examined the influence of environmental factors on shredder diversity. Location World‐wide (156 sites from 17 regions located in all inhabited continents at latitudes ranging from 67° N to 41° S). Methods We used linear regression to examine the latitudinal variation in shredder diversity at different spatial scales: alpha (α), gamma (γ) and beta (β) diversity. We also explored the effect of γ‐diversity on α‐diversity across latitudes with regression analysis, and the possible influence of local environmental factors on shredder diversity with simple correlations. Results Alpha diversity increased with latitude, while γ‐ and β‐diversity showed no clear latitudinal pattern. Temperate sites showed a linear relationship between γ‐ and α‐diversity; in contrast, tropical sites showed evidence of local species saturation, which may explain why the latitudinal gradient in α‐diversity is not accompanied by a gradient in γ‐diversity. Alpha diversity was related to several local habitat characteristics, but γ‐ and β‐diversity were not related to any of the environmental factors measured. Main conclusions Our results indicate that global patterns of shredder diversity are complex and depend on spatial scale. However, we can draw several conclusions that have important ecological implications. Alpha diversity is limited at tropical sites by local factors, implying a higher risk of loss of key species or the whole shredder guild (the latter implying the loss of trophic diversity). Even if regional species pools are not particularly species poor in the tropics, colonization from adjacent sites may be limited. Moreover, many shredder species belong to cool‐adapted taxa that may be close to their thermal maxima in the tropics, which makes them more vulnerable to climate warming. Our results suggest that tropical streams require specific scientific attention and conservation efforts to prevent loss of shredder biodiversity and serious alteration of ecosystem processes.     

Large-scale phylogenetic analyses reveal the causes of high tropical amphibian diversity

Many groups show higher species richness in tropical regions but the underlying causes remain unclear. Despite many competing hypotheses to explain latitudinal diversity gradients, only three processes can directly change species richness across regions: speciation, extinction and dispersal. These processes can be addressed most powerfully using large-scale phylogenetic approaches, but most previous studies have focused on small groups and recent time scales, or did not separate speciation and extinction rates. We investigate the origins of high tropical diversity in amphibians, applying new phylogenetic comparative methods to a tree of 2871 species. Our results show that high tropical diversity is explained by higher speciation in the tropics, higher extinction in temperate regions and limited dispersal out of the tropics compared with colonization of the tropics from temperate regions. These patterns are strongly associated with climate-related variables such as temperature, precipitation and ecosystem energy. Results from models of diversity dependence in speciation rate suggest that temperate clades may have lower carrying capacities and may be more saturated (closer to carrying capacity) than tropical clades. Furthermore, we estimate strikingly low tropical extinction rates over geological time scales, in stark contrast to the dramatic losses of diversity occurring in tropical regions presently.     

Macroevolutionary thermodynamics: Temperature and the tempo of evolution in the tropics

An influential hypothesis proposes that the tempo of evolution is faster in the tropics. Emerging evidence, including a study in this issue of PLOS Biology, challenges this view, raising new questions about the causes of Earth’s iconic latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG).

Biologists have long puzzled over the spectacular diversity of animals and plants from Earth’s tropical regions. It is true that some tropical environments are not especially rich in species, and some groups of organisms show contrarian patterns with diversity peaks that occur far outside of the warm, humid tropics. Nonetheless, the big picture is clear: A vastly disproportionate fraction of Earth’s terrestrial biodiversity is concentrated in tropical rainforests, and warm water reef environments similarly account for a large fraction of marine diversity. The extremes of tropical diversity transcend the ability of most humans to process it: Some Amazonian rainforests, for example, contain more species of trees in just a few hectares than are found in the entirety of Europe or North America [1]. In general, the most diverse tropical rainforests support order-of-magnitude increases in species richness relative to otherwise comparable temperate zone communities across a wide range of organisms. Despite decades of study, however, the causes of this latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) remain elusive.One of the most prominent hypotheses for the LDG is, loosely speaking, the idea that biological processes speed up in the tropics, potentially due to the kinetic effects of temperature on the rates of organismal processes. It seems obvious that the pulse of life should be faster under a torrid tropical sun, and—to naturalists who’ve spent time in lowland rainforests in particular—such a view accords well with perceptions of the humid tropics as a raging, steamy mess of species interactions that collectively generate the tangled web that is tropical diversity. It is generally accepted that temperature can affect metabolic rate and many other biological processes, including those involving ecological interactions between species (e.g., competition, predation, and herbivory). The specific mechanisms connecting thermal energy to biodiversity remain unclear. For example, they might involve the influence of temperature on rates of molecular evolution, which might then influence rates of speciation [2]. Or, species in warmer environments might live closer to their optimal body temperatures, thus enabling them to allocate more resources to performance-associated functions and leading to a systematic upgrading in the intensity of antagonistic or coevolutionary interactions between species [3]. Regardless of the specific mechanism, the general idea is captured by Brown [4], who notes that “‘Diversity begets diversity’ in the tropics, because ‘the Red Queen runs faster when she is hot.’”Writing in PLOS Biology, Drury and colleagues [5] demonstrate that a central prediction of these “faster tropics” hypotheses fails to hold up. They predicted that, if certain types of ecological interactions between species are stronger in the tropics, then we should see a signal of those interactions in long-term patterns of trait evolution. In particular, the increased pressure to respond to species interactions in the tropics should result in faster overall rates of morphological evolution for tropical species. To test this hypothesis, the authors studied the rate of morphological evolution in birds, analyzing a large dataset on bill shape and body proportions from other recent studies [6] with a battery of sophisticated statistical models. These models allowed the rate of morphological change to differ systematically with latitude. Intriguingly, the models that best fit the data in some cases were those that allowed for strong interactions between species in driving patterns of divergence among closely related species that occupied that same biogeographic region (e.g., the neotropics). Thus, there is a partial signal of species interactions on the morphologies of species we see living together today, including those from both tropical and temperate regions. As suggested by the authors, these patterns might reflect a form of ecological character displacement, whereby morphologically similar species evolve differences that minimize their ecological overlap. But, surprisingly, the intensity of these effects shows no consistent relationship with latitude. The take-home message is that—at least for birds and the traits considered—species are not evolving more rapidly in the tropics.Drury and colleagues note that their results contradict recent articles that have documented differences in phenotypic evolutionary rates across latitude, although the studies referenced generally looked at different types of traits (e.g., birdsong). They suggest several potential reasons for the discrepancies between their results and those prior studies. But, critically, these earlier studies generally did not report faster evolution in the tropics, but faster evolution in the temperate zone. Hence, the results of Drury and colleagues and the earlier studies all converge to a similar and more general finding, which is that the warm tropics really aren’t so hot for macroevolution, at least as far as phenotypic evolutionary rates are concerned. By rejecting the simple explanations (faster evolution), new questions emerge about how and why tropical bird communities show such dramatic phenotypic and ecological diversity.Morphological evolution is not the only process that fails to show the expected pattern of “heating up” in the tropics. A number of recent studies have found that rates of species formation are either unrelated to latitude or slower in the tropics [7–9]. These results argue strongly against temperature kinetic models of biodiversity, whereby faster speciation emerges from the effects of warmer temperatures in the tropics on mutation and metabolic rates [10]. Many of the same causal pathways that predict increased rates of speciation as a function of temperature would also apply to rates of morphological evolution: Increased mutation rates in the tropics, for example, should accelerate the tempo of phenotypic evolution due to increased mutational variance in traits. But, regardless of whether we consider phenotypic evolution (as in Drury and colleagues) or lineage diversification, there is simply no evidence for faster evolutionary rates in the tropics.The results from Drury and colleagues [5] and other studies do not reject all possible causal pathways by which temperature or species interactions might facilitate high tropical diversity. Many phylogeny-based studies of species diversification and phenotypic evolution frame their interpretations through the lens of interspecific competition, ecological opportunity, and character displacement. Yet, numerous other types of interactions are relevant to global biodiversity patterns, and some of these interactions have scarcely been explored from a macroevolutionary perspective. Many such interactions have the potential to influence species richness and ecological diversity, perhaps through mechanisms that involve an indirect effect of temperature on equilibrium diversity levels. With more data on how host–pathogen, predator–prey, and other biotic interactions vary latitudinally, perhaps we will emerge with a greater understanding of the diverse mechanisms that contribute to the spectacular enrichment of tropical diversity.     

Type and spatial structure of distribution data and the perceived determinants of geographical gradients in ecology: the species richness of African birds

Aim Studies exploring the determinants of geographical gradients in the occurrence of species or their traits obtain data by: (1) overlaying species range maps; (2) mapping survey‐based species counts; or (3) superimposing models of individual species’ distributions. These data types have different spatial characteristics. We investigated whether these differences influence conclusions regarding postulated determinants of species richness patterns. Location Our study examined terrestrial bird diversity patterns in 13 nations of southern and eastern Africa, spanning temperate to tropical climates. Methods Four species richness maps were compiled based on range maps, field‐derived bird atlas data, logistic and autologistic distribution models. Ordinary and spatial regression models served to examine how well each of five hypotheses predicted patterns in each map. These hypotheses propose productivity, temperature, the heat–water balance, habitat heterogeneity and climatic stability as the predominant determinants of species richness. Results The four richness maps portrayed broadly similar geographical patterns but, due to the nature of underlying data types, exhibited marked differences in spatial autocorrelation structure. These differences in spatial structure emerged as important in determining which hypothesis appeared most capable of explaining each map's patterns. This was true even when regressions accounted for spurious effects of spatial autocorrelation. Each richness map, therefore, identified a different hypothesis as the most likely cause of broad‐scale gradients in species diversity. Main conclusions Because the ‘true’ spatial structure of species richness patterns remains elusive, firm conclusions regarding their underlying environmental drivers remain difficult. More broadly, our findings suggest that care should be taken to interpret putative determinants of large‐scale ecological gradients in light of the type and spatial characteristics of the underlying data. Indeed, closer scrutiny of these underlying data — here the distributions of individual species — and their environmental associations may offer important insights into the ultimate causes of observed broad‐scale patterns.     

Deep-sea nematode biodiversity in the Mediterranean basin: testing for longitudinal, bathymetric and energetic gradients

The knowledge of the processes controlling the spatial distribution of species diversity is one of the main challenges of the present ecological research. Spatial patterns of benthic biodiversity in the deep sea are poorly known in comparison with other ecosystems and this limits our understanding of the mechanisms controlling the distribution and maintenance of high biodiversity in the largest ecosystems of our biosphere. Although the Mediterranean basin covers <1% of the world ocean surface, none the less it hosts >7.5% of the global biodiversity. The high biogeographic complexity and the presence of steep ecological gradients contribute in making the Mediterranean a region of very high diversity. Here we report the results of an investigation on the patterns of nematode biodiversity in the deep-Mediterranean Sea, in relation with bathymetric, longitudinal and energetic gradients. Our results indicate that benthic biodiversity in the deep-Mediterranean decreases significantly with increasing depth. Moreover, at equally deep sites, nematode diversity decreased from the western to the eastern basin and longitudinal gradients were evident when comparing sites at 4000-m depth, with 3000-m depth. The analysis of the available energy (measured as labile organic matter content of the sediments) suggests that biodiversity patterns are not controlled by the amounts of food resources, but instead bio-availability is the key factor. A more detailed analysis revealed an extremely high deep-sea beta-diversity (turnover diversity), both among sites at different depths as well as at similar depths of different longitude or within the same basin. This new finding has not only important implications on the estimates of the overall regional diversity (gamma diversity), but also suggests the presence of high biogeographic complexity in the deep benthic domain of the Mediterranean Sea.     

The data void in modeling current and future distributions of tropical species

Conserving biodiversity in the face of climate change requires a predictive ecology of species distributions. Nowhere is this need more acute than in the tropics, which harbor the majority of Earth's species and face rapid and large climate and land‐use changes. However, the study of species distributions and their responses to climate change in high diversity tropical regions is potentially crippled by a lack of basic data. We analyzed a database representing more than 800 000 unique geo‐referenced natural history collections to determine what fraction of tropical plant species has sufficient numbers of available collections for use in the habitat or niche models commonly used to predict species responses to climate change. We found that more than nine out of 10 species from the three principle tropical realms are so poorly collected (n < 20 records) that they are essentially invisible to modern modeling and conservation tools. In order to predict the impact of climate change on tropical species, efforts must be made to increase the amount of data available from tropical countries through a combination of collecting new specimens and digitizing existing records.     

Climate and land-use interactively shape butterfly diversity in tropical rainforest and savanna ecosystems of southwestern China

Human-induced habitat conversion and degradation, along with accelerating climatic change, have resulted in considerable global biodiversity loss. Nevertheless, how local ecological assemblages respond to the interplay between climate and land-use change remains poorly understood. Here, we examined the effects of climate and land-use interactions on butterfly diversity in different ecosystems of southwestern China. Specifically, we investigated variation in the alpha and beta diversities of butterflies in different landscapes along human-modified and climate gradients. We found that increasing land-use intensity not only caused a dramatic decrease in butterfly alpha diversity but also significantly simplified butterfly species composition in tropical rainforest and savanna ecosystems. These findings suggest that habitat modification by agricultural activities increases the importance of deterministic processes and leads to biotic homogenization. The land-use intensity model best explained species richness variation in the tropical rainforest, whereas the climate and land-use intensity interaction model best explained species richness variation in the savanna. These results indicate that climate modulates the effects of land-use intensity on butterfly alpha diversity in the savanna ecosystem. We also found that the response of species composition to climate varied between sites: specifically, species composition was strongly correlated with climatic distance in the tropical rainforest but not in the savanna. Taken together, our long-term butterfly monitoring data reveal that interactions between human-modified habitat change and climate change have shaped butterfly diversity in tropical rainforest and savanna. These findings also have important implications for biodiversity conservation under the current era of rapid human-induced habitat loss and climate change.     

The biogeography of tropical reef fishes: endemism and provinciality through time

The largest marine biodiversity hotspot straddles the Indian and Pacific Oceans, driven by taxa associated with tropical coral reefs. Centred on the Indo‐Australian Archipelago (IAA), this biodiversity hotspot forms the ‘bullseye’ of a steep gradient in species richness from this centre to the periphery of the vast Indo‐Pacific region. Complex patterns of endemism, wide‐ranging species and assemblage differences have obscured our understanding of the genesis of this biodiversity pattern and its maintenance across two‐thirds of the world's oceans. But time‐calibrated molecular phylogenies coupled with ancestral biogeographic estimates have provided a valuable framework in which to examine the origins of coral reef fish biodiversity across the tropics. Herein, we examine phylogenetic and biogeographic data for coral reef fishes to highlight temporal patterns of marine endemism and tropical provinciality. The ages and distribution of endemic lineages have often been used to identify areas of species creation and demise in the marine tropics and discriminate among multiple hypotheses regarding the origins of biodiversity in the IAA. Despite a general under‐sampling of endemic fishes in phylogenetic studies, the majority of locations today contain a mixture of potential paleo‐ and neo‐endemic fishes, pointing to multiple historical processes involved in the origin and maintenance of the IAA biodiversity hotspot. Increased precision and sampling of geographic ranges for reef fishes has permitted the division of discrete realms, regions and provinces across the tropics. Yet, such metrics are only beginning to integrate phylogenetic relatedness and ancestral biogeography. Here, we integrate phylogenetic diversity with ancestral biogeographic estimation of lineages to show how assemblage structure and tropical provinciality has changed through time.     

Plankton dynamics under different climate conditions in tropical freshwater systems (a reply to the comment by Sarmento,Amado & Descy, )

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Host plant richness explains diversity of ectomycorrhizal fungi: Response to the comment of Tedersoo et al. (2014)

Exploring the relationships between the biodiversity of groups of interacting organisms yields insight into ecosystem stability and function (Hooper et al. 2000 ; Wardle 2006 ). We demonstrated positive relationships between host plant richness and ectomycorrhizal (EM) fungal diversity both in a field study in subtropical China (Gutianshan) and in a meta‐analysis of temperate and tropical studies (Gao et al. 2013 ). However, based on re‐evaluation of our data sets, Tedersoo et al. ( 2014 ) argue that the observed positive correlation between EM fungal richness and EM plant richness at Gutianshan and also in our metastudies was based mainly from (i) a sampling design with inconsistent species pool and (ii) poor data compilation for the meta‐analysis. Accordingly, we checked our data sets and repeated the analysis performed by Tedersoo et al. ( 2014 ). In contrast to Tedersoo et al. ( 2014 ), our re‐analysis still confirms a positive effect of plant richness on EM fungal diversity in Gutianshan, temperate and tropical ecosystems, respectively.     

Faster Speciation and Reduced Extinction in the Tropics Contribute to the Mammalian Latitudinal Diversity Gradient

The increase in species richness from the poles to the tropics, referred to as the latitudinal diversity gradient, is one of the most ubiquitous biodiversity patterns in the natural world. Although understanding how rates of speciation and extinction vary with latitude is central to explaining this pattern, such analyses have been impeded by the difficulty of estimating diversification rates associated with specific geographic locations. Here, we use a powerful phylogenetic approach and a nearly complete phylogeny of mammals to estimate speciation, extinction, and dispersal rates associated with the tropical and temperate biomes. Overall, speciation rates are higher, and extinction rates lower, in the tropics than in temperate regions. The diversity of the eight most species-rich mammalian orders (covering 92% of all mammals) peaks in the tropics, except that of the Lagomorpha (hares, rabbits, and pikas) reaching a maxima in northern-temperate regions. Latitudinal patterns in diversification rates are strikingly consistent with these diversity patterns, with peaks in species richness associated with low extinction rates (Primates and Lagomorpha), high speciation rates (Diprotodontia, Artiodactyla, and Soricomorpha), or both (Chiroptera and Rodentia). Rates of range expansion were typically higher from the tropics to the temperate regions than in the other direction, supporting the “out of the tropics” hypothesis whereby species originate in the tropics and disperse into higher latitudes. Overall, these results suggest that differences in diversification rates have played a major role in shaping the modern latitudinal diversity gradient in mammals, and illustrate the usefulness of recently developed phylogenetic approaches for understanding this famous yet mysterious pattern.     

Biodiversity mediates top–down control in eelgrass ecosystems: a global comparative‐experimental approach

Nutrient pollution and reduced grazing each can stimulate algal blooms as shown by numerous experiments. But because experiments rarely incorporate natural variation in environmental factors and biodiversity, conditions determining the relative strength of bottom–up and top–down forcing remain unresolved. We factorially added nutrients and reduced grazing at 15 sites across the range of the marine foundation species eelgrass (Zostera marina) to quantify how top–down and bottom–up control interact with natural gradients in biodiversity and environmental forcing. Experiments confirmed modest top–down control of algae, whereas fertilisation had no general effect. Unexpectedly, grazer and algal biomass were better predicted by cross‐site variation in grazer and eelgrass diversity than by global environmental gradients. Moreover, these large‐scale patterns corresponded strikingly with prior small‐scale experiments. Our results link global and local evidence that biodiversity and top–down control strongly influence functioning of threatened seagrass ecosystems, and suggest that biodiversity is comparably important to global change stressors.     

Prospects for tropical forest biodiversity in a human-modified world

The future of tropical forest biodiversity depends more than ever on the effective management of human-modified landscapes, presenting a daunting challenge to conservation practitioners and land use managers. We provide a critical synthesis of the scientific insights that guide our understanding of patterns and processes underpinning forest biodiversity in the human-modified tropics, and present a conceptual framework that integrates a broad range of social and ecological factors that define and contextualize the possible future of tropical forest species. A growing body of research demonstrates that spatial and temporal patterns of biodiversity are the dynamic product of interacting historical and contemporary human and ecological processes. These processes vary radically in their relative importance within and among regions, and have effects that may take years to become fully manifest. Interpreting biodiversity research findings is frequently made difficult by constrained study designs, low congruence in species responses to disturbance, shifting baselines and an over-dependence on comparative inferences from a small number of well studied localities. Spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the potential prospects for biodiversity conservation can be explained by regional differences in biotic vulnerability and anthropogenic legacies, an ever-tighter coupling of human-ecological systems and the influence of global environmental change. These differences provide both challenges and opportunities for biodiversity conservation. Building upon our synthesis we outline a simple adaptive-landscape planning framework that can help guide a new research agenda to enhance biodiversity conservation prospects in the human-modified tropics.     

How are biodiversity and carbon stock recovered during tropical forest restoration? Supporting the ecological paradigms and political context involved

To meet agendas for biodiversity conservation and mitigation of climate change, large-scale restoration initiatives propose ecological restoration as an alternative that can reconcile these two objectives. In ongoing ecosystem restoration, increased diversity is always associated with increased productivity (and consequent carbon stock), which is among the most important ecosystem functions. The ecological paradigm of this association is that ecosystem biodiversity (B) is positively related to both ecosystem functions and services (EF and ES). However, BEF and BES relationships vary spatially and temporally, which makes understanding these relationships relevant and important for practical restoration actions. In this study, we asked how biodiversity and carbon stock recovery occurs during tropical forest restoration. We reviewed literature of the relationships between BEF and BES in the context of ecological restoration and asked whether ecological restoration can recover both. In addition, we conducted a metadata analysis of studies on the recovery of biodiversity and biomass in regenerating tropical forests (n = 83) to find the best model that describes this relationship. In general, studies showed that ecosystem biodiversity and productivity are positively related, and that restoration can recover both. We found an asymptotic and positive correlation between biodiversity and biomass in tropical forests, suggesting limitation of the mutual gains of these two ecosystem properties during restoration. We discuss these results in the context of ecological theory and the practice of ecological restoration.     

Global patterns in peatmoss biodiversity

DNA sequence data from the nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacers (ITS) and the trnL-trnF chloroplast DNA regions were used to quantify geographical partitioning of global biodiversity in peatmosses (Sphagnum), and to compare patterns of molecular diversity with patterns of species richness. Molecular diversity was estimated for boreal, tropical, Neotropical, nonboreal (tropical plus Southern Hemisphere), Old World and New World partitions, based on a total of 436 accessions. Diversity was partitioned among geographical regions in terms of combined nuclear and chloroplast sequence data and separately for the ITS and trnL-trnF data sets. Levels of variation were estimated using phylogenetic diversity (PD), which incorporates branch lengths from a phylogenetic tree, and the number of polymorphic nucleotide sites. Estimates of species richness suggest that peatmoss diversity is higher in New World than Old World regions, and that the Neotropics constitute a "hotspot" of diversity. Molecular estimates, in contrast, indicate that peatmoss biodiversity is almost evenly divided between New and Old World regions, and that the Neotropics account for only 20-35% of global peatmoss diversity. In general, levels of tropical and boreal peatmoss molecular diversity were comparable. Two species, S. sericeum from the Old World tropics and S. lapazense from Bolivia, are remarkably divergent in nucleotide sequences from all other Sphagna and together account for almost 20% of all peatmoss diversity, although they are represented by only three of the 436 accessions (0.7%). These species clearly demonstrate the nonequivalence of species biodiversity value.     

Predicting Plant Diversity Patterns in Madagascar: Understanding the Effects of Climate and Land Cover Change in a Biodiversity Hotspot

Climate and land cover change are driving a major reorganization of terrestrial biotic communities in tropical ecosystems. In an effort to understand how biodiversity patterns in the tropics will respond to individual and combined effects of these two drivers of environmental change, we use species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated for recent climate and land cover variables and projected to future scenarios to predict changes in diversity patterns in Madagascar. We collected occurrence records for 828 plant genera and 2186 plant species. We developed three scenarios, (i.e., climate only, land cover only and combined climate-land cover) based on recent and future climate and land cover variables. We used this modelling framework to investigate how the impacts of changes to climate and land cover influenced biodiversity across ecoregions and elevation bands. There were large-scale climate- and land cover-driven changes in plant biodiversity across Madagascar, including both losses and gains in diversity. The sharpest declines in biodiversity were projected for the eastern escarpment and high elevation ecosystems. Sharp declines in diversity were driven by the combined climate-land cover scenarios; however, there were subtle, region-specific differences in model outputs for each scenario, where certain regions experienced relatively higher species loss under climate or land cover only models. We strongly caution that predicted future gains in plant diversity will depend on the development and maintenance of dispersal pathways that connect current and future suitable habitats. The forecast for Madagascar’s plant diversity in the face of future environmental change is worrying: regional diversity will continue to decrease in response to the combined effects of climate and land cover change, with habitats such as ericoid thickets and eastern lowland and sub-humid forests particularly vulnerable into the future.     

Morphological disparity opposes latitudinal diversity gradient in lacertid lizards

While global variation in taxonomic diversity is strongly linked to latitude, the extent to which morphological disparity follows geographical gradients is less well known. We estimated patterns of lineage diversification, morphological disparity and rates of phenotypic evolution in the Old World lizard family Lacertidae, which displays a nearly inverse latitudinal diversity gradient with decreasing species richness towards the tropics. We found that lacertids exhibit relatively constant rates of lineage accumulation over time, although the majority of morphological variation appears to have originated during recent divergence events, resulting in increased partitioning of disparity within subclades. Among subclades, tropical arboreal taxa exhibited the fastest rates of shape change while temperate European taxa were the slowest, resulting in an inverse relationship between latitudinal diversity and rates of phenotypic evolution. This pattern demonstrates a compelling counterexample to the ecological opportunity theory of diversification, suggesting an uncoupling of the processes generating species diversity and morphological differentiation across spatial scales.     

Climate change and tropical biodiversity: a new focus

Considerable efforts are focused on the consequences of climate change for tropical rainforests. However, potentially the greatest threats to tropical biodiversity (synergistic interactions between climatic changes and human land use) remain understudied. Key concerns are that aridification could increase the accessibility of previously non-arable or remote lands, elevate fire impacts and exacerbate ecological effects of habitat disturbance. The growing climatic change literature often fails to appreciate that, in coming decades, climate-land use interactions might be at least as important as abiotic changes per se for the fate of tropical biodiversity. In this review, we argue that protected area expansion along key ecological gradients, regulation of human-lit fires, strategic forest-carbon financing and re-evaluations of agricultural and biofuel subsidies could ameliorate some of these synergistic threats.