Abundance and habitat relationships of breeding birds in the Sky Islands and adjacent Sierra Madre Occidental of northwest Mexico

The Sierra Madre Occidental and neighboring Madrean Sky Islands span a large and biologically diverse region of northwest Mexico and portions of the southwestern United States. Little is known about the abundance and habitat use of breeding birds in this region of Mexico, but such information is important for guiding conservation and management. We assessed densities and habitat relationships of breeding birds across Sky Island mountain ranges in Mexico and adjacent portions of the Sierra Madre from 2009 to 2012. We estimated densities at multiple spatial scales, assessed variation in densities among all major montane vegetation communities, and identified and estimated the effects of important habitat attributes on local densities. Regional density estimates of 65% of 72 focal species varied significantly among eight montane vegetation communities that ranged from oak savannah and woodland at low elevations to pine and mixed‐conifer forest at high elevations. Greater proportions of species occurred at peak densities or were relatively restricted to mixed‐conifer forest and montane riparian vegetation likely because of higher levels of structural or floristic diversity in those communities, but those species were typically rare or uncommon in the Sky Islands. Fewer species had peak densities in oak and pine‐oak woodland, and species associated with those communities were often more abundant across the region. Habitat models often included the effects of broadleaf deciduous vegetation cover (30% of species), which, together with tree density and fire severity, had positive effects on densities and suggest ways for managers to augment and conserve populations. Such patterns combined with greater threats to high‐elevation conifer forest and riparian areas underscore their value for conservation. Significant populations of many breeding bird species, including some that are of concern or were not known to occur regionally or in mountain ranges we surveyed, highlight the importance of conservation efforts in this area of Mexico.     

Holocene altitudinal shifts in vegetation belts and environmental changes in the Sierra Madre Occidental, Northwestern Mexico, based on modern and fossil pollen data

A modern pollen rain study was performed in a 300 km-long altitudinal transect (~ 28° N latitude) from 300 to 2300 m elevation. The higher elevation modern communities: epithermal oak–pines, pine–oak forest, pine forest, and mixed conifer forest were easy to distinguish from their pollen content. In contrast, lower elevation subtropical communities: thornscrub and tropical deciduous forest were difficult to separate, because they share many pollen taxa. Nevertheless we identify high frequencies of Bursera laxiflora as an important component of the tropical deciduous forest.Additionally, fossil pollen was analyzed at three sites located between 1700 and 1950 m altitude at ~ 28° latitude north in the Sierra Madre Occidental of northwestern Mexico. The sites were in pine–oak (Pinus–Quercus), pine, and mixed-conifer forests respectively. Shifts in the altitudinal distribution of vegetation belts were recorded for the last 12,849 cal yr BP, and climate changes were inferred. The lowest site (pine–oak forest) was surrounded by pine forest between 12,849 and 11,900 cal yr BP, suggesting a cold and relatively dry Younger Dryas period. The early Holocene was also cold but wetter, with mixed conifer forest with Abies (fir) growing at the same site, at 1700 m elevation, 300 m lower than today. After 9200 cal yr BP, a change to warmer/drier conditions caused fir migration to higher elevations and the expansion of Quercus at 1700 m. At 5600 cal yr BP Abies was growing above 1800 m and Picea (spruce) that is absent today, was recorded at 1950 m elevation. Fir and spruce disappeared from the 1950 m site and reached their present distribution (scattered, above 2000 m) after 1000 cal yr BP; we infer an episodic Holocene migration rate to higher elevations for Abies of 23.8 m/1000 cal yr and for Picea of 39.2 m/1000 cal yr. The late Holocene reflects frequent climate oscillations, with variations in the representation of forest trees. A tendency towards an openness of the forest is recorded for the last 2000 yrs, possibly reflecting human activities along with short-term climate change.     

Relative importance of long‐term changes in climate and land‐use on the phenology and abundance of legume crop specialist and generalist aphids

Abstract Insect populations are prone to respond to global changes through shifts in phenology, distribution and abundance. However, global changes cover several factors such as climate and land-use, the relative importance of these being largely unknown. Here, we aim at disentangling the effects of climate, land-use, and geographical drivers on aphid abundance and phenology in France, at a regional scale and over the last 40 years. We used aerial data obtained from suction traps between 1978 and 2015 on five aphid species varying in their degree of specialization to legumes, along with climate, legume crop area and geographical data. Effects of environmental and geographical variables on aphid annual abundance and spring migration dates were analyzed using generalized linear mixed models. We found that within the last four decades, aphids have advanced their spring migration by a month, mostly due to the increase in temperature early in the year, and their abundance decreased by half on average, presumably in response to a combination of factors. The influence of legume crop area decreased with the degree of specialization of the aphid species to such crops. The effect of geographical variation was high even when controlling for environmental variables, suggesting that many other spatially structured processes act on aphid population characteristics. Multifactorial analyses helped to partition the effects of different global change drivers. Climate and land-use changes have strong effects on aphid populations, with important implications for future agriculture. Additionally, trait-based response variation could have major consequences at the community scale.     

Evolutionary drivers of phylogeographical diversity in the highlands of Mexico: a case study of the Crotalus triseriatus species group of montane rattlesnakes

Aim To assess the genealogical relationships of widespread montane rattlesnakes in the Crotalus triseriatus species group and to clarify the role of Late Neogene mountain building and Pleistocene pine–oak forest fragmentation in driving the diversification of Mexican highland taxa. Location Highlands of mainland Mexico and the south‐western United States (Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona). Methods A synthesis of inferences was used to address several associated questions about the biogeography of the Mexican highlands and the evolutionary drivers of phylogeographical diversity in co‐distributed taxa. We combined extensive range‐wide sampling (130 individuals representing five putative species) and mixed‐model phylogenetic analyses of 2408 base pairs of mitochondrial DNA to estimate genealogical relationships and divergence times within the C. triseriatus species group. We then assessed the tempo of diversification using a maximum likelihood framework based on the birth–death process. Estimated times of divergences provided a probabilistic temporal component and questioned whether diversification rates have remained constant or varied over time. Finally, we looked for phylogeographical patterns in other co‐distributed taxa. Results We identified eight major lineages within the C. triseriatus group, and inferred strong correspondence between maternal and geographic history within most lineages. At least one cryptic species was detected. Relationships among lineages were generally congruent with previous molecular studies, with differences largely attributable to our expanded taxonomic and geographic sampling. Estimated divergences between most major lineages occurred in the Late Miocene and Pliocene. Phylogeographical structure within each lineage appeared to have been generated primarily during the Pleistocene. Although the scale of genetic diversity recognized affected estimated rates of diversification, rates appeared to have been constant through time. Main conclusions The biogeographical history of the C. triseriatus group implies a dynamic history for the highlands of Mexico. The Neogene formation of the Transvolcanic Belt appears responsible for structuring geographic diversity among major lineages. Pleistocene glacial–interglacial climatic cycles and resultant expansions and contractions of the Mexican pine–oak forest appear to have driven widespread divergences within lineages. Climatic change, paired with the complex topography of Mexico, probably produced a myriad of species‐specific responses in co‐distributed Mexican highland taxa. The high degree of genetic differentiation recovered in our study and others suggests that the Mexican highlands may contain considerably more diversity than currently recognized.     

Spatio‐temporal scaling of biodiversity in acoustic tropical bird communities

Automated analysis of acoustic communities is a rapidly emerging approach for the characterization and monitoring of biodiversity. To evaluate its utility, we should verify that such ‘bioacoustics’ can accurately detect ecological signal in spatiotemporal acoustic data. Targeting the ‘Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project’ sites in Brazil, we ask: What is the relative contribution of the spatial, temporal and habitat dimension to variation in bird acoustic communities in a previously fragmented tropical rainforest? Does the functional diversity of bird communities scale similarly to space and time as does species diversity, when both are recorded by bioacoustics means? Overall, is the imprint of landscape fragmentation 30 years ago still audible in the present‐day soundscape? We sampled forty‐four sites in secondary forest and 107 sites in old‐growth forest, resulting in 11 000 h of audio recordings. We detected 60 bird species with satisfactory precision and recovered a linear log–log relation between sampling time and species diversity. Sites in primary forest host more species than sites in secondary forest, but the difference decreased with sampling time, as the slope was slightly higher in secondary than primary forests. Functional diversity, as exposed by vocalizing birds, accumulates faster than does species diversity. The similarity among local communities decreases with distance in both time and space, but stability in time is remarkably high: two acoustic samples from the same site one year (or more) apart prove more similar than two samples taken at the same time but from sites situated just a few hundred meters apart. These findings suggest that habitat modification can be heard as a long‐lasting imprint on the soundscape of regenerating habitats and identify soundscape–area and soundscape–time relations as a promising tool for biodiversity research, applied biomonitoring and restoration ecology.     

Application of a Gondwanan perspective to restore ecological integrity in the south‐western Australian global biodiversity hotspot

Bounded by ocean and desert, the isolated, predominately Mediterranean‐climate region of south‐western Australia (SWA) includes nine bioregions (circa 44 million hectares). The ecological integrity of the landscapes in this global biodiversity hotspot has been compromised by deforestation, fragmentation, exploitation, and introduced biota. Nature and degree of transformation varies between four interconnected landscapes (Swan Coastal Plain; South‐west Forests; Wandoo Woodlands; and Great Western Woodlands). A Gondwanan perspective emphasizes a venerable biota and a cultural component to deep time. The particular importance of remnants and protected areas is recognized in restoring ecological integrity to Gondwanan landscapes. The nature and magnitude of the restoration task in these ancient, and neighboring, landscapes require higher levels of investment and more time than do recent landscapes. The protection, conservation, restoration, and rehabilitation of ecological integrity require multiple approaches in each landscape as well as consideration of the whole. Active conservation of biota and minimizing the impact of industrial‐ and agricultural‐use are priorities. Integrating a climate focus and rethinking fire are critical restoration considerations to future trajectories under anthropogenic climate change. A legislative mandate to coordinate industrial‐scale restoration and active conservation to build from protected areas must become a societal priority to restore ecological integrity.     

Projecting impacts of global climate and land‐use scenarios on plant biodiversity using compositional‐turnover modelling

Nations have committed to ambitious conservation targets in response to accelerating rates of global biodiversity loss. Anticipating future impacts is essential to inform policy decisions for achieving these targets, but predictions need to be of sufficiently high spatial resolution to forecast the local effects of global change. As part of the intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models of the Intergovernmental Science‐Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, we present a fine‐resolution assessment of trends in the persistence of global plant biodiversity. We coupled generalized dissimilarity models, fitted to >52 million records of >254 thousand plant species, with the species–area relationship, to estimate the effect of land‐use and climate change on global biodiversity persistence. We estimated that the number of plant species committed to extinction over the long term has increased by 60% globally between 1900 and 2015 (from ~10,000 to ~16,000). This number is projected to decrease slightly by 2050 under the most optimistic scenario of land‐use change and to substantially increase (to ~18,000) under the most pessimistic scenario. This means that, in the absence of climate change, scenarios of sustainable socio‐economic development can potentially bring extinction risk back to pre‐2000 levels. Alarmingly, under all scenarios, the additional impact from climate change might largely surpass that of land‐use change. In this case, the estimated number of species committed to extinction increases by 3.7–4.5 times compared to land‐use‐only projections. African regions (especially central and southern) are expected to suffer some of the highest impacts into the future, while biodiversity decline in Southeast Asia (which has previously been among the highest globally) is projected to slow down. Our results suggest that environmentally sustainable land‐use planning alone might not be sufficient to prevent potentially dramatic biodiversity loss, unless a stabilization of climate to pre‐industrial times is observed.     

The importance of long‐term social‐ecological research for the future of restoration ecology

In the face of rapid environmental and cultural change, long‐term ecological research (LTER) and social‐ecological research (LTSER) are more important than ever. LTER contributes disproportionately to ecology and policy, evidenced by the greater proportion of LTER in higher impact journals and the disproportionate representation of LTER in reports informing policymaking. Historical evidence has played a significant role in restoration projects and it will continue to guide restoration into the future, but its use is often hampered by lack of information, leading to considerable uncertainties. By facilitating the storage and retrieval of historical information, LTSER will prove valuable for future restoration.     

Modeling and empirical validation of long‐term carbon sequestration in forests (France, 1850–2015)

The development of appropriate tools to quantify long‐term carbon (C) budgets following forest transitions, that is, shifts from deforestation to afforestation, and to identify their drivers are key issues for forging sustainable land‐based climate‐change mitigation strategies. Here, we develop a new modeling approach, CRAFT (CaRbon Accumulation in ForesTs) based on widely available input data to study the C dynamics in French forests at the regional scale from 1850 to 2015. The model is composed of two interconnected modules which integrate biomass stocks and flows (Module 1) with litter and soil organic C (Module 2) and build upon previously established coupled climate‐vegetation models. Our model allows to develop a comprehensive understanding of forest C dynamics by systematically depicting the integrated impact of environmental changes and land use. Model outputs were compared to empirical data of C stocks in forest biomass and soils, available for recent decades from inventories, and to a long‐term simulation using a bookkeeping model. The CRAFT model reliably simulates the C dynamics during France's forest transition and reproduces C‐fluxes and stocks reported in the forest and soil inventories, in contrast to a widely used bookkeeping model which strictly only depicts C‐fluxes due to wood extraction. Model results show that like in several other industrialized countries, a sharp increase in forest biomass and SOC stocks resulted from forest area expansion and, especially after 1960, from tree growth resulting in vegetation thickening (on average 7.8 Mt C/year over the whole period). The difference between the bookkeeping model, 0.3 Mt C/year in 1850 and 21 Mt C/year in 2015, can be attributed to environmental and land management changes. The CRAFT model opens new grounds for better quantifying long‐term forest C dynamics and investigating the relative effects of land use, land management, and environmental change.     

Long‐term climate impacts on breeding bird phenology in Pennsylvania,USA

Climate change is influencing bird phenology worldwide, but we still lack information on how many species are responding over long temporal periods. We assessed how climate affected passerine reproductive timing and productivity at a constant effort mist‐netting station in western Pennsylvania using a model comparison approach. Several lines of evidence point to the sensitivity of 21 breeding passerines to climate change over five decades. The trends for temperature and precipitation over 53 years were slightly positive due to intraseasonal variation, with the greatest temperature increases and precipitation declines in early spring. Regardless of broodedness, migration distance, or breeding season, 13 species hatched young earlier over time with most advancing >3 days per decade. Warm springs were associated with earlier captures of juveniles for 14 species, ranging from 1‐ to 3‐day advancement for every 1 °C increase. This timing was less likely to be influenced by spring precipitation; nevertheless, higher rainfall was usually associated with later appearance of juveniles and breeding condition in females. Temperature and precipitation were positively related to productivity for seven and eleven species, respectively, with negative relations evident for six and eight species. We found that birds fledged young earlier with increasing spring temperatures, potentially benefiting some multibrooded species. Indeed, some extended the duration of breeding in these warm years. Yet, a few species fledged fewer juveniles in warmer and wetter seasons, indicating that expected future increases could be detrimental to locally breeding populations. Although there were no clear relationships between life history traits and breeding phenology, species‐specific responses to climate found in our study provide novel insights into phenological flexibility in songbirds. Our research underscores the value of long‐term monitoring studies and the importance of continuing constant effort sampling in the face of climate change.     

Global‐change drivers of ecosystem functioning modulated by natural variability and saturating responses

Humans are altering global environment at an unprecedented rate through changes in biodiversity, climate, nitrogen cycle, and land use. To address their effects on ecosystem functioning, experiments most frequently explore one driver at a time and control as many confounding factors as possible. Yet, which driver exerts the largest influence on ecosystem functioning and whether their relative importance changes among systems remain unclear. We analyzed experiments in the Patagonian steppe that evaluated the aboveground net primary production (ANPP) response to manipulated gradients of species richness, precipitation, temperature, nitrogen fertilization (N), and grazing intensity. We compared the effect on ANPP relative to ambient conditions considering intensity and direction of manipulations for each driver. The ranking of responses to drivers with comparable manipulation intensity was as follows: biodiversity>grazing>precipitation>N. For a similar intensity of manipulation, the effect of biodiversity loss was 4.0, 3.6, and 1.5, times larger than N deposition, decreased precipitation, and increased grazing intensity. We interpreted our results considering two hypotheses. First, the response of ANPP to changes in precipitation and biodiversity is saturating, so we expected larger effects when the driver was reduced, relative to ambient conditions, than when it was increased. Experimental manipulations that reduced ambient levels had larger effects than those that increased them. Second, the sensitivity of ANPP to each driver is inversely related to the natural variability of the driver. In Patagonia, the ranking of natural variability of drivers is as follows: precipitation>grazing>temperature>biodiversity>N. So, in general, the ecosystem was most sensitive to drivers that varied the least. Comparable results from Cedar Creek (MN) support both hypotheses and suggest that sensitivity to drivers varies among ecosystem types. Given the importance of understanding ecosystem sensitivity to predict global‐change impacts, it is necessary to design new experiments located in regions with contrasting natural variability and that include the full range of drivers.     

Responses of macroinvertebrate communities to long‐term flow variability in a Sonoran Desert stream

Current global models predict a hotter and drier climate in the southwestern United States with anticipated increases in drought frequency and severity coupled with changes in flash flood regimes. Such changes would likely have important ecological consequences, particularly for stream and riparian ecosystems already subject to frequent hydrologic disturbance. This study assessed the potential response of aquatic macroinvertebrates to interannual variation in hydrology in a spatially intermittent desert stream (Sycamore Creek, AZ). We compiled data on the recovery of macroinvertebrate communities following spring floods, with successional sequences captured 11 times over a 16‐year period (1983–1999). This period encompassed a transition from perennial to intermittent flow in this system, and included a record drought in 1989–1990. Results show that while the size of floods initiating sequences had little explanatory power, changes in macroinvertebrate community structure during postflood succession were closely associated with antecedent flooding and drought. Year‐to‐year differences in benthic communities integrated taxon‐specific responses to antecedent disturbance, including differential resistance to channel drying, use of hyporheic refugia, and variable rates of recovery once stream flow resumed. The long‐term consequences of drying on community structure were only evident during later stages of postflood succession, illustrating an interaction between flood and drought recovery processes in this system. Our observations highlight the potential for predicted climate changes in this region to have marked and long‐lasting consequences for benthic communities in desert streams.     

Biodiversity responses to land‐use and restoration in a global biodiversity hotspot: Ant communities in Brazilian Cerrado

Given that land‐use change is the main cause of global biodiversity decline, there is widespread interest in adopting land‐use practices that maintain high levels of biodiversity, and in restoring degraded land that previously had high biodiversity value. In this study, we use ant taxonomic and functional diversity to examine the effects of different land uses (agriculture, pastoralism, silviculture and conservation) and restoration practices on Cerrado (Brazilian savanna) biodiversity. We also examine the extent to which ant diversity and composition can be explained by vegetation attributes that apply across the full land management spectrum. We surveyed vegetation attributes and ant communities in five replicate plots of each of 13 land‐use and restoration treatments, including two types of native vegetation as reference sites: cerrado sensu stricto and cerradão. Several land‐use and restoration treatments had comparable plot richness to that of the native reference habitats. Ant species and functional composition varied systematically among land‐use treatments following a gradient from open habitats such as agricultural fields to forested sites. Tree basal area and grass cover were the strongest predictors of ant species richness. Losses in ant diversity were higher in land‐use systems that transform vegetation structure. Among productive systems, therefore, uncleared pastures and old pine plantations had similar species composition to that occurring in cerrado sensu stricto. Restoration techniques currently applied to sites that were previously Cerrado have focused on returning tree cover, and have failed to restore ant communities typical of savanna. To improve restoration outcomes for Cerrado biodiversity, greater attention needs to be paid to the re‐establishment and maintenance of the grass layer, which requires frequent fire. At the broader scale, conservation planning in agricultural landscapes, should recognize the value of land‐use mosaics and the risks of homogenization.     

Landscape dynamics in Mediterranean oak forests under global change: understanding the role of anthropogenic and environmental drivers across forest types

The Mediterranean region is projected to be extremely vulnerable to global change, which will affect the distribution of typical forest types such as native oak forests. However, our understanding of Mediterranean oak forest responses to future conditions is still very limited by the lack of knowledge on oak forest dynamics and species‐specific responses to multiple drivers. We compared the long‐term (1966–2006) forest persistence and land cover change among evergreen (cork oak and holm oak) and deciduous oak forests and evaluated the importance of anthropogenic and environmental drivers on observed changes for Portugal. We used National Forest Inventories to quantify the changes in oak forests and explored the drivers of change using multinomial logistic regression analysis and an information theoretical approach. We found distinct trends among oak forest types, reflecting the differences in oak economic value, protection status and management schemes: cork oak forests were the most persistent (62%), changing mostly to pines and eucalypt; holm oak forests were less persistent (53.2%), changing mostly to agriculture; and deciduous oak forests were the least persistent (45.7%), changing mostly to shrublands. Drivers of change had distinct importance across oak forest types, but drivers from anthropogenic origin (wildfires, population density, and land accessibility) were always among the most important. Climatic extremes were also important predictors of oak forest changes, namely extreme temperatures for evergreen oak forests and deficit of precipitation for deciduous oak forests. Our results indicate that under increasing human pressure and forecasted climate change, evergreen oak forests will continue declining and deciduous oak forests will be replaced by forests dominated by more xeric species. In the long run, multiple disturbances may change competitive dominance from oak forests to pyrophytic shrublands. A better understanding of forest dynamics and the inclusion of anthropogenic drivers on models of vegetation change will improve predicting the future of Mediterranean oak forests.     

Assessing long‐term effects of multiple,potentially confounded drivers in ecosystems from species traits

Although species traits have the potential to disentangle long‐term effects of multiple, potentially confounded drivers in ecosystems, this issue has received very little attention in the literature. We aimed at filling this gap by assessing the relative effects of hydroclimatic and water quality factors on the trait composition of invertebrate assemblages over 30 years in the Middle Loire River (France). Using a priori predictions on the long‐term variation of trait‐based adaptations over the three decades, we evaluated the ability of invertebrate traits to indicate the effects of warming, discharge reduction and water quality improvement. Hydroclimatic and water quality factors contributed to up to 65% of the variation in trait composition. More than 70% of the initial trait response predictions made according to observed long‐term hydroclimatic changes were confirmed. They supported a general climate‐induced trend involving adapted resistance and resilience strategies. A partial confounding effect of water quality improvement acting on trophic processes was also highlighted, indicating that improved water quality management can significantly help to reduce some adverse effects of climate change. This trait‐based approach can have wider implications for investigating long‐term changes driven by multiple, potentially confounded factors, as frequently encountered in the context of global change.     

Individual variation in behavioural responsiveness to humans leads to differences in breeding success and long‐term population phenotypic changes

Whether human disturbance can lead to directional selection and phenotypic change in behaviour in species with limited behavioural plasticity is poorly understood in wild animal populations. Using a 19‐year study on Montagu′s harrier, we report a long‐term increase in boldness towards humans during nest visits. The probability of females fleeing or being passive during nest visits decreased, while defence intensity steadily increased over the study period. These behavioural responses towards humans were significantly repeatable. The phenotypic composition of the breeding population changed throughout the study period (4–5 harrier generations), with a gradual disappearance of shy individuals, leading to a greater proportion of bolder ones and a more behaviourally homogeneous population. We further show that nest visit frequency increased nest failure probability and reduced productivity of shy females, but not of bold ones. Long‐term research or conservation programmes needing nest visits can therefore lead to subtle but relevant population compositional changes that require further attention.     

Global changes in soil stocks of carbon,nitrogen, phosphorus,and sulphur as influenced by long‐term agricultural production

Quantifying changes in stocks of C, N, P, and S in agricultural soils is important not only for managing these soils sustainably as required to feed a growing human population, but for C and N, they are also important for understanding fluxes of greenhouse gases from the soil environment. In a global meta‐analysis, 102 studies were examined to investigate changes in soil stocks of organic C, total N, total P, and total S associated with long‐term land‐use changes. Conversion of native vegetation to cropping resulted in substantial losses of C (?1.6 kg m^?2, ?43%), N (?0.15 kg m^?2, ?42%), P (?0.029 kg m^?2, ?27%), and S (?0.015 kg m^?2, ?33%). The subsequent conversion of conventional cropping systems to no‐till, organic agriculture, or organic amendment systems subsequently increased stocks, but the magnitude of this increase (average of +0.47 kg m^?2 for C and +0.051 kg m^?2 for N) was small relative to the initial decrease. We also examined the conversion of native vegetation to pasture, with changes in C (?11%), N (+4.1%), and P (+25%) generally being modest relative to changes caused by conversion to cropping. The C:N ratio remained relatively constant irrespective of changes in land use, whilst in contrast, the C:S ratio decreased by 21% in soils converted to cropping – this suggesting that biochemical mineralization is of importance for S. The data presented here will assist in the assessment of different agricultural production systems on soil stocks of C, N, P, and S – this information assisting not only in quantifying the effects of existing agricultural production on these stocks, but also allowing for informed decision‐making regarding the potential effects of future land‐use changes.     

Vegetation state changes in the course of shrub encroachment in an African savanna since about 1850 CE and their potential drivers

1. Shrub encroachment has far‐reaching ecological and economic consequences in many ecosystems worldwide. Yet, compositional changes associated with shrub encroachment are often overlooked despite having important effects on ecosystem functioning.
2. We document the compositional change and potential drivers for a northern Namibian Combretum woodland transitioning into a Terminalia shrubland. We use a multiproxy record (pollen, sedimentary ancient DNA, biomarkers, compound‐specific carbon (δ¹³C) and deuterium (δD) isotopes, bulk carbon isotopes (δ¹³Corg), grain size, geochemical properties) from Lake Otjikoto at high taxonomical and temporal resolution.
3. We provide evidence that state changes in semiarid environments may occur on a scale of one century and that transitions between stable states can span around 80 years and are characterized by a unique vegetation composition. We demonstrate that the current grass/woody ratio is exceptional for the last 170 years, as supported by n‐alkane distributions and the δ¹³C and δ¹³Corg records. Comparing vegetation records to environmental proxy data and census data, we infer a complex network of global and local drivers of vegetation change. While our δD record suggests physiological adaptations of woody species to higher atmospheric pCO₂ concentration and drought, our vegetation records reflect the impact of broad‐scale logging for the mining industry, and the macrocharcoal record suggests a decrease in fire activity associated with the intensification of farming. Impact of selective grazing is reflected by changes in abundance and taxonomical composition of grasses and by an increase of nonpalatable and trampling‐resistant taxa. In addition, grain‐size and spore records suggest changes in the erodibility of soils because of reduced grass cover.
4. Synthesis. We conclude that transitions to an encroached savanna state are supported by gradual environmental changes induced by management strategies, which affected the resilience of savanna ecosystems. In addition, feedback mechanisms that reflect the interplay between management legacies and climate change maintain the encroached state.

     

Precipitation and winter temperature predict long‐term range‐scale abundance changes in Western North American birds

Predicting biodiversity responses to climate change remains a difficult challenge, especially in climatically complex regions where precipitation is a limiting factor. Though statistical climatic envelope models are frequently used to project future scenarios for species distributions under climate change, these models are rarely tested using empirical data. We used long‐term data on bird distributions and abundance covering five states in the western US and in the Canadian province of British Columbia to test the capacity of statistical models to predict temporal changes in bird populations over a 32‐year period. Using boosted regression trees, we built presence‐absence and abundance models that related the presence and abundance of 132 bird species to spatial variation in climatic conditions. Presence/absence models built using 1970–1974 data forecast the distributions of the majority of species in the later time period, 1998–2002 (mean AUC = 0.79 ± 0.01). Hindcast models performed equivalently (mean AUC = 0.82 ± 0.01). Correlations between observed and predicted abundances were also statistically significant for most species (forecast mean Spearman′s ρ = 0.34 ± 0.02, hindcast = 0.39 ± 0.02). The most stringent test is to test predicted changes in geographic patterns through time. Observed changes in abundance patterns were significantly positively correlated with those predicted for 59% of species (mean Spearman′s ρ = 0.28 ± 0.02, across all species). Three precipitation variables (for the wettest month, breeding season, and driest month) and minimum temperature of the coldest month were the most important predictors of bird distributions and abundances in this region, and hence of abundance changes through time. Our results suggest that models describing associations between climatic variables and abundance patterns can predict changes through time for some species, and that changes in precipitation and winter temperature appear to have already driven shifts in the geographic patterns of abundance of bird populations in western North America.