Possible impacts of climate change on natural vegetation in Saxony (Germany)

Recent climate changes have had distinct impacts on plant development in many parts of the world. Higher air temperatures, mainly since the end of the 1980s, have led to advanced timing of phenological phases and consequently to an extension of the general growing season. For this reason it is interesting to know how plants will respond to future climate change. In this study simple phenological models have been developed to estimate the impact of climate change on the natural vegetation in Saxony. The estimations are based on a regional climate scenario for the state of Saxony. The results indicate that changes in the timing of phenophases could continue in the future. Due to distinct temperature changes in winter and in summer, mainly the spring and summer phases will be advanced. Spring phenophases, such as leafing or flowering, show the strongest trends. Depending on the species, the average timing of these phenophases could be advanced by 3–27 days by 2050. Phenophases in autumn show relatively small changes. Thus, the annual growth period of individual trees will be further extended, mainly because of the shift of spring phases. Frequent droughts in summer and in autumn can compensate for the earlier leafing of trees, because in this case leaf colouring and leaf fall would start some weeks earlier. In such cases, the growing period would not be really extended, but shifted to the beginning of the year.     

Environmental characteristics,landscape history and pressures on three coastal lagoons in the Southern Mediterranean Region: Merja Zerga (Morocco), Ghar El Melh (Tunisia) and Lake Manzala (Egypt)

Three North African coastal lagoons were selected as primary sites for integrated ecological and hydrological monitoring and modelling as part of the MELMARINA Project (see Flower & Thompson, 2009). The three sites, Merja Zerga (13.2 km², Morocco), Ghar El Melh (35.6 km², Tunisia) and Lake Manzala (c. 700 km², Egypt), are permanent water bodies with at least one well-defined connection with the sea. This article provides an account of each lagoon’s physical characteristics and recent development including the impacts of human activities. The two sites on the Mediterranean (Ghar El Melh and Lake Manzala) are characterised by small tidally driven variations in water level whilst Merga Zerga, on the Atlantic coast, experiences large tidally induced water level variations and so contains large inter-tidal environments. All the three lagoons receive freshwater inflows from their landward margins, varying in magnitude, seasonality and ecological significance. Freshwater inflows from drains strongly influence ecological conditions within Lake Manzala. All the three lagoons have significant biodiversity interest, especially for resident and migratory birds as well as fish, and support local human populations. Each lagoon experienced significant changes during the twentieth century possibly affecting declines in biodiversity value. These largely resulted from agricultural expansion and intensification and include reclamation and hydrological modifications which have both decreased freshwater inflows due to upstream diversions (Merja Zerga and Ghar El Melh) and increased the influx of freshwater through the return of irrigation drainage (Merja Zerga and Lake Manzala). All three sites experienced nutrient enrichment due to agricultural runoff and discharge of domestic wastewater. Industrial waste discharge is a particular, but not exclusive, problem for Lake Manzala. Problems of water quantity and quality will increase through the twenty-first century with increasing demands for water while effects of climate change will enhance freshwater scarcity. Conflicts between human and environmental uses of water will increase and unless improvements in water use efficiency and wastewater treatment can be brought about wetlands including coastal lagoons are likely to suffer further loss and degradation. These problems will be compounded by sea level rise. Guest editors: J. R. Thompson & R. J. Flower Hydro-ecological Monitoring and Modelling of North African Coastal Lagoons     

城市化进程中广州市景观格局的时空变化与梯度分异

以广州市为研究对象,利用1985、1990、1995、2000和2004五期遥感影像,研究了广州市20年来景观空间格局的时空变化特征.结果表明,广州市1985～2004年间景观格局变化明显,斑块数和斑块密度增加,斑块的形状更加不规则,景观结构更加复杂,景观各指数的动态变化反映了景观格局明显分异变化的特征,但变化速率、强度和发展态势在全市和不同行政区表现出梯度变化特征.番禺区受城市化过程和人类活动的干扰主要发生在1990年以后,花都区的重要城市化过程主要发生在1985～1995年间,但整体受干扰程度和幅度相对小.增城和从化的景观组分变化主要发生在1990～2000年间,城区受城市化过程影响表现出的趋势和整个研究区最相似,表现为受城市化干扰程度大、城市化过程时间长、开始时间早等特点,表明不同分区的景观格局呈现出不同的时空变化特征.     

Fine roots and ectomycorrhizas as indicators of environmental change

Abstract

Human-induced and natural stress factors can affect fine roots and ectomycorrhizas. Therefore they have potential utility as indicators of environmental change. We evaluated, through meta-analysis, the magnitude of the effects of acidic deposition, nitrogen deposition, increased ozone levels, elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, and drought on fine roots and ectomycorrhizal (ECM) characteristics. Ectomycorrhizal colonization was an unsuitable parameter for environmental change, but fine root length and biomass could be useful. Acidic deposition had a significantly negative impact on fine roots, root length being more sensitive than root biomass. There were no significant effects of nitrogen deposition or elevated tropospheric ozone on the quantitative root parameters. Elevated CO₂ had a significant positive effect. Drought had a significantly negative effect on fine root biomass. The negative effect of acidic deposition and the positive effect of elevated CO₂ increased over time, indicating that effects were persistent contrary the other factors. The meta-analysis also showed that experimental conditions, including both laboratory and field experiments, were a major source of variation. In addition to quantitative changes, environmental changes affect the species composition of the ectomycorrhizal fungal community.     

Childhood cancer and residential radon exposure – results of a population-based case-control study in Lower Saxony (Germany)

A population-based case-control study on risk factors for childhood malignancies was used to investigate a previously reported association between elevated indoor radon concentrations and childhood cancer, with special regard to leukaemia. The patients were all children suffering from leukaemia and common solid tumours (nephroblastoma, neuroblastoma, rhabdomyosarcoma, central nervous system (CNS) tumours) diagnosed between July 1988 and June 1993 in Lower Saxony (Germany) and aged less than 15 years. Two population-based control groups were matched by age and gender to the leukaemia patients. Long-term (1 year) radon measurements were performed in those homes where the children had been living for at least 1 year, with particular attention being paid to those rooms where they had stayed most of the time. Due to the sequential study design, radon measurements in these rooms could only be done for 36% (82 leukaemias, 82 solid tumours and 209 controls) of the 1038 families initially contacted. Overall mean indoor radon concentrations (27 Bq m^–3) were low compared with the measured levels in other studies. Using a prespecified cutpoint of 70 Bq m^–3, no association with indoor radon concentrations was seen for the leukaemias (odds ratio (OR): 1.30; 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.32–5.33); however, the risk estimates were elevated for the solid tumours (OR: 2.61; 95% CI: 0.96–7.13), mainly based on 6 CNS tumours. We did not find any evidence for an association between indoor radon and childhood leukaemia, which is in line with a recently published American case-control study. There is little support for an association with CNS tumours in the literature. Received: 14 December 1998 / Accepted in revised form: 10 June 1999     

黑河中游湿地景观破碎化与气候变化的关系

在遥感和GIS技术支持下,基于1975-2010年长时间序列遥感影像和气象数据资料,结合小波分析、趋势面模拟与空间插值法,选取斑块密度(PD)、斑块平均面积(MPS)、斑块形状破碎化指数(FS)等景观指数,分析了黑河中游的气候空间分布和变化特征,以及该区域湿地的景观破碎化;通过相关分析和多元逐步回归分析,探讨了黑河中游湿地景观破碎化与气候变化的关系.结果表明:1975-2010年,研究区降水量和气温的整体分布格局为高气温区低降水量、低气温区高降水量,且干转湿和冷转暖为其主要变化特征;内陆干旱地区气温对湿地动态变化的影响大于降水,降水对湿地的生态作用甚微;研究区湿地景观破碎化主要表现为MPS减小、PD上升以及FS增大,研究期间,湿地MPS减少48.95 hm2,PD上升0.006个·hm-2.     

基于移动窗口法的肃州绿洲化与景观破碎化时空变化

以甘肃省酒泉市肃州绿洲为例,以1990、1999和2010年3期Landsat TM/ETM同月相数据为数据源,基于Arc GIS与Fragstats软件,采用移动窗口法、转移矩阵和景观指数等开展绿洲化与景观破碎化的时空变化研究。结果表明:(1)肃州绿洲化过程主要表现为绿洲面积变化和内部土地利用类型之间的转化。绿洲面积变化以耕地、草地和城市建设用地等的增加为主;绿洲土地利用类型转换主要表现为耕地内部变化、草地与未利用地,城市建设用地与未利用地之间的转换等。(2)景观破碎化程度整体上呈减缓趋势,其剧变区多集中于绿洲边缘的银达镇、三墩镇、黄泥堡乡和下河清乡等,景观破碎化在空间上表现为由绿洲内部向边缘区转移。(3)以草地为主的绿洲荒漠过渡带是绿洲扩张和景观破碎化的多发区,更是维持绿洲稳定和可持续发展的关键子区。研究可为绿洲景观管理和可持续发展提供科学依据。     

Edge effects on the prevalence and mortality factors of Phytomyza ilicis (Diptera, Agromyzidae) in a suburban woodland

Although the effects of edges on the biotas of habitat patches have been widely discussed, there have been few empirical studies of the mechanistic basis of population and community differences between patch edges and interiors. This is particularly true of differential effects of edges on species' mortalities, and on interactions in insect populations and communities. Here we examine edge-associated differences in the prevalence and mortality factors of the holly leaf-miner Phytomyza ilicis , in a suburban woodland in Sheffield, U.K. Leaf miner prevalence was higher and survivorship to adulthood lower at the woodland edge. Natural enemies and other mortality factors contributed differently to total mortality at the edge and interior. Mechanisms underlying edge effects on P. ilicis arose from the interaction between microclimate, adult movement and host-plant quality. The differential induction of species mortality found, confirms the complexity of species' responses to habitat edges and the importance of understanding the effects of edges on species interactions.     

Habitat use for warren building by European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in relation to landscape structure in a sand dune system

Several conservation efforts are being made to recover European rabbit populations (Oryctolagus cuniculus) on the Iberian Peninsula. Some of them focus on burrow management; others involve building different types of warren. A few studies have examined site selection for warren building, and these studies have considered only warren placement within sites and not the broader area surrounding these locations. The objective of this study was to evaluate how landscape pattern determines habitat selection by rabbits for warren building at different spatial scales. Landscape, home range scale, and microhabitat were the spatial scales used in this study. Warrens were not uniformly distributed over the study area but, rather were concentrated in areas with a high abundance and cover of Retama monosperma and high vegetation cover. Rabbits preferred digging warrens in areas with low fragmentation and where patches are few, large, and contiguous. Based on our results, we suggest that a study of landscape structure should be carried out before design habitat management, recovery or translocation programs. Such studies will need to take into account the physiognomy and size, shape, and continuity of patches in fragmented landscapes. Rabbit conservation programs must address areas that provide not only the maximum potential rate of intake, but also good soil and vegetation cover conditions for warren building and suitable surrounding areas.     

Comparison of land use/land cover change and landscape patterns in Honghe National Nature Reserve and the surrounding Jiansanjiang Region,China

Land use and land cover change (LUCC) determines landscape patterns and affects the ability of ecosystems to provide the services and biodiversity on which humans ultimately depend. The Honghe National Nature Reserve is a biodiversity-rich area in the Jiansanjiang region of northeast China. In this study, the LUCC and landscape patterns were compared between the reserve and the Jiansanjiang region. With remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) procedures, satellite images from 1989, 2001 and 2010 were used to calculate dynamics of LUCC amplitudes, landscape pattern index, transition matrix. The influence of LUCC on the wetland landscape of the nature reserve was discussed in the context of broader LUCC analyses. The results showed that land uses in the studied regions changed remarkedly over the time period; swamp area declined significantly as arable land increased. The ecological landscape index showed that distinct landscape patches were small, scattered and highly fragmented, moving toward a more monotonous landscape. Anthropogenic activities such as farming directly decreased the wetland landscape diversity. Furthermore, anthropogenic factors diminished wetland areas indirectly through climatic factors, namely air temperature and precipitation levels. National and regional policies on agriculture and water use have been highly influential, and the Honghe National Nature Reserve is highly susceptible to land use changes in the surrounding Jiansanjiang region.     

Coexistence of wolves and humans in a densely populated region (Lower Saxony,Germany)

Since the first sporadic occurrences of grey wolves (Canis lupus) west of the Polish border in 1996, wolves have shown a rapid population recovery in Germany. Wolves are known to avoid people and wolf attacks on humans are very rare worldwide. However, the subjectively perceived threat is considerable, especially as food-conditioned habituation to humans occurs sporadically. Lower Saxony (Germany) has an exceedingly higher human population density than most other regions with territorial wolves; thus, the potential for human–wolf conflicts is higher. Using hunters’ wildlife survey data from 455 municipalities and two years (2014–2015) and data from the official wolf monitoring (557 confirmed wolf presences and 500 background points) collected between 2012–2015, grey wolf habitat selection was modelled using generalized additive models with respect to human population density, road density, forest cover and roe deer density. Moreover, we tested whether habitat use changed in response to human population and road density between 2012/2013 and 2014/2015.Wolves showed a preference for areas of low road density. Human population density was less important as a covariate in the model of the survey data. Areas with higher prey abundance (5–10 roe deer/km²) and areas with >20% forest cover were preferred wolf habitats. Wolves were mostly restricted to areas with the lowest road and human population densities. However, between the two time periods, avoidance of human density decreased significantly.Recolonization of Germany is still in its early stages and it is unclear where this process will halt. To-date authorities mainly concentrate on monitoring measures. However, to avoid conflict, recolonization will require more stringent management of wolf populations and an improved information strategy for rural populations.     

宜昌城区绿地景观格局与大气污染的关系

在湖北省宜昌市中心城区4种景观绿地分布格局分析的基础上,对比观测了各景观中的环境噪声和大气SO2、NOx、TSP含量。结果表明,以无绿化道路廊道和建筑铺装斑块为主要景观构成的对照景观绿地破碎化指数最高(18．1253ind·hm^-2),绿化覆盖率仅为1．00％,其景观中环境噪声较大、大气TSP含量高(0．4918mg·m^-3);大面积绿地斑块占优势的景观绿化覆盖率高(达43．59％),绿地破碎度指数最小(0．4539 ind·hm^-2),与对照景观相比,大气噪声减弱28．12％,TSP含量降低86．42％;中小面积绿地斑块和绿化廊道呈均匀分布的景观绿化覆盖率(11．34％)和绿地破碎度指数(2．7511 ind·hm^-2)均较低,与对照景观相比平均滞尘率为46．62％;以绿化廊道占绝对优势的景观绿化覆盖率仅为6．13％,绿地破碎度指数均较高(6．8700 ind·hm^-2),绿化廊道密度指数最大(0．8443hm·hm^-2),其景观中环境噪声、TSP和NOx含量分别比对照景观增加21．47％、5．08％和9．06％.可见,在城市景观中绿地斑块平均面积越大、破碎度指数越低,则其对大气污染净化的作用越大。     

Identifying drivers of species compositional change in a semi‐natural upland grassland over a 40‐year period

Question: Few long‐term studies exist with integrated vegetation and soil composition data, coupled with detailed environmental driver records. Can changes in community composition in an upland grassland be identified by revisitation after a 40‐year period and allow the main environmental drivers of change to be identified? Location: Snowdon, Wales, UK. Methods: Changes in plant community and soil composition were assessed by resurveying an upland Agrostis–Festuca grassland in 2008, 40 years after the original survey. PCA and ecological indicators were used to determine changes in plant community composition. Redundancy analysis (RDA) allowed the impact of soil chemical composition on the vegetation community to be assessed. Results: A significant shift in community composition was found between years. A 35% reduction in species richness and an increase in the grass:forb ratio, suggest significant ecosystem degradation. Indicator values suggest acidification of the community with an increased acidity preference of species recorded in 2008. However, soil pH measurements showed that soil pH had increased. RDA suggested that the main shifts in species composition were correlated with an increase in pH and a reduction in soil exchangeable base cation concentration. Clear ecosystem responses to climate, land‐use change or nitrogen enrichment were not observed. Conclusions: Shifts in vegetation and soil composition are clearly identifiable after 40 years. The shifts in community composition are consistent with ecosystem degradation due to acidification during the period between surveys. Ecological indicator values and soil chemical composition displayed differing degrees of change. Whilst soils appear to be recovering from historic effects of sulphur deposition, vegetation community composition changes appear to lag behind those in soil chemistry.     

Effects of roads on spatial distribution,abundance and mortality of brown hare (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Lepus europaeus</Emphasis>) in Switzerland

Brown hare populations (Lepus europaeus) are in decline throughout Europe since the 1960s, and numerous impact factors have been discussed in the literature. Although landscape fragmentation by roads is assumed to be one potential factor, the effects of roads on brown hare populations are poorly understood. We studied three potential effects of roads on brown hares asking: (1) Do roads affect the spatial distribution of hares due to disturbance effects? (2) Does road network density affect hare abundance due to barrier effects? (3) Does road network density affect road mortality rates in hare populations? The study is based on harvest statistics and spotlight taxations in Canton Aargau, Switzerland and was conducted at three different spatial scales. Spatial distribution was studied in plots established in varying distances parallel to roads, effects on abundance were analysed on the basis of raster grids, and road mortality was studied on the level of hunting districts. We show that (1) hares avoid the proximity to roads and prefer large non-fragmented areas over small isolated patches. (2) The density of freeways, federal and main roads has a negative effect on hare abundance. The density of unpaved field tracks has a positive effect probably because vegetation at field tracks contributes to the diet spectrum. (3) Effects of road network density on road mortality rates could not be shown, although road mortality has increased since the 1990s. We conclude that in debilitated populations, roads act as threatening factor for brown hare. We recommend establishing large un-dissected areas as a new category of wildlife refuge and to protect these areas from being further fragmented.