Reconstructing Mammalian Sleep Dynamics with Data Assimilation

Data assimilation is a valuable tool in the study of any complex system, where measurements are incomplete, uncertain, or both. It enables the user to take advantage of all available information including experimental measurements and short-term model forecasts of a system. Although data assimilation has been used to study other biological systems, the study of the sleep-wake regulatory network has yet to benefit from this toolset. We present a data assimilation framework based on the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) for combining sparse measurements together with a relatively high-dimensional nonlinear computational model to estimate the state of a model of the sleep-wake regulatory system. We demonstrate with simulation studies that a few noisy variables can be used to accurately reconstruct the remaining hidden variables. We introduce a metric for ranking relative partial observability of computational models, within the UKF framework, that allows us to choose the optimal variables for measurement and also provides a methodology for optimizing framework parameters such as UKF covariance inflation. In addition, we demonstrate a parameter estimation method that allows us to track non-stationary model parameters and accommodate slow dynamics not included in the UKF filter model. Finally, we show that we can even use observed discretized sleep-state, which is not one of the model variables, to reconstruct model state and estimate unknown parameters. Sleep is implicated in many neurological disorders from epilepsy to schizophrenia, but simultaneous observation of the many brain components that regulate this behavior is difficult. We anticipate that this data assimilation framework will enable better understanding of the detailed interactions governing sleep and wake behavior and provide for better, more targeted, therapies.     

On observation distributions for state space models of population survey data

1.?State space models are starting to replace more simple time series models in analyses of temporal dynamics of populations that are not perfectly censused. By simultaneously modelling both the dynamics and the observations, consistent estimates of population dynamical parameters may be obtained. For many data sets, the distribution of observation errors is unknown and error models typically chosen in an ad-hoc manner. 2.?To investigate the influence of the choice of observation error on inferences, we analyse the dynamics of a replicated time series of red kangaroo surveys using a state space model with linear state dynamics. Surveys were performed through aerial counts and Poisson, overdispersed Poisson, normal and log-normal distributions may all be adequate for modelling observation errors for the data. We fit each of these to the data and compare them using AIC. 3.?The state space models were fitted with maximum likelihood methods using a recent importance sampling technique that relies on the Kalman filter. The method relaxes the assumption of Gaussian observation errors required by the basic Kalman filter. Matlab code for fitting linear state space models with Poisson observations is provided. 4.?The ability of AIC to identify the correct observation model was investigated in a small simulation study. For the parameter values used in the study, without replicated observations, the correct observation distribution could sometimes be identified but model selection was prone to misclassification. On the other hand, when observations were replicated, the correct distribution could typically be identified. 5.?Our results illustrate that inferences may differ markedly depending on the observation distributions used, suggesting that choosing an adequate observation model can be critical. Model selection and simulations show that for the models and parameter values in this study, a suitable observation model can typically be identified if observations are replicated. Model selection and replication of observations, therefore, provide a potential solution when the observation distribution is unknown.     

Analysis of Video-Based Microscopic Particle Trajectories Using Kalman Filtering

The fidelity of the trajectories obtained from video-based particle tracking determines the success of a variety of biophysical techniques, including in situ single cell particle tracking and in vitro motility assays. However, the image acquisition process is complicated by system noise, which causes positioning error in the trajectories derived from image analysis. Here, we explore the possibility of reducing the positioning error by the application of a Kalman filter, a powerful algorithm to estimate the state of a linear dynamic system from noisy measurements. We show that the optimal Kalman filter parameters can be determined in an appropriate experimental setting, and that the Kalman filter can markedly reduce the positioning error while retaining the intrinsic fluctuations of the dynamic process. We believe the Kalman filter can potentially serve as a powerful tool to infer a trajectory of ultra-high fidelity from noisy images, revealing the details of dynamic cellular processes.     

Model‐based identifiable parameter determination applied to a simultaneous saccharification and fermentation process model for bio‐ethanol production

In this work, a methodology for the model‐based identifiable parameter determination (MBIPD) is presented. This systematic approach is proposed to be used for structure and parameter identification of nonlinear models of biological reaction networks. Usually, this kind of problems are over‐parameterized with large correlations between parameters. Hence, the related inverse problems for parameter determination and analysis are mathematically ill‐posed and numerically difficult to solve. The proposed MBIPD methodology comprises several tasks: (i) model selection, (ii) tracking of an adequate initial guess, and (iii) an iterative parameter estimation step which includes an identifiable parameter subset selection (SsS) algorithm and accuracy analysis of the estimated parameters. The SsS algorithm is based on the analysis of the sensitivity matrix by rank revealing factorization methods. Using this, a reduction of the parameter search space to a reasonable subset, which can be reliably and efficiently estimated from available measurements, is achieved. The simultaneous saccharification and fermentation (SSF) process for bio‐ethanol production from cellulosic material is used as case study for testing the methodology. The successful application of MBIPD to the SSF process demonstrates a relatively large reduction in the identified parameter space. It is shown by a cross‐validation that using the identified parameters (even though the reduction of the search space), the model is still able to predict the experimental data properly. Moreover, it is shown that the model is easily and efficiently adapted to new process conditions by solving reduced and well conditioned problems. © 2013 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 29:1064–1082, 2013     

On the practical identifiability of microbial growth models incorporating Michaelis-Menten type nonlinearities

The reason for difficulties in obtaining unique estimates of the parameters μ_m and K_s of the Michaelis-Menten equation are analysed for a microbial batch growth process. With the aid of simulation studies in which the influences of different types of noise on the parameter estimates are compared, it is shown that, although theoretically identifiable in the deterministic case with ideal measurements, the parameters cannot in general be correctly determined from noisy measurements. The difficulties are further illuminated by estimation examples using real data. It certain situations, in which the value of the ratio K_s/s_o is high or in which only few and noisy measurements are available, the linear approximation of the Michaelis-Menten equation gives a better fit. The practical difficulties in obtaining correct values of the model parameters do not limit the applicability of the Michaelis-Menten model, which in most cases explains the bacterial growth behavior excellently. Rather, they underline the fact that care must be taken when utilizing parameter estimates for biological interpretations.     

Improving Parameter Inference from FRAP Data: an Analysis Motivated by Pattern Formation in the <Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Drosophila</Emphasis> Wing Disc

Fluorescence recovery after photobleaching (FRAP) is used to obtain quantitative information about molecular diffusion and binding kinetics at both cell and tissue levels of organization. FRAP models have been proposed to estimate the diffusion coefficients and binding kinetic parameters of species for a variety of biological systems and experimental settings. However, it is not clear what the connection among the diverse parameter estimates from different models of the same system is, whether the assumptions made in the model are appropriate, and what the qualities of the estimates are. Here we propose a new approach to investigate the discrepancies between parameters estimated from different models. We use a theoretical model to simulate the dynamics of a FRAP experiment and generate the data that are used in various recovery models to estimate the corresponding parameters. By postulating a recovery model identical to the theoretical model, we first establish that the appropriate choice of observation time can significantly improve the quality of estimates, especially when the diffusion and binding kinetics are not well balanced, in a sense made precise later. Secondly, we find that changing the balance between diffusion and binding kinetics by changing the size of the bleaching region, which gives rise to different FRAP curves, provides a priori knowledge of diffusion and binding kinetics, which is important for model formulation. We also show that the use of the spatial information in FRAP provides better parameter estimation. By varying the recovery model from a fixed theoretical model, we show that a simplified recovery model can adequately describe the FRAP process in some circumstances and establish the relationship between parameters in the theoretical model and those in the recovery model. We then analyze an example in which the data are generated with a model of intermediate complexity and the parameters are estimated using models of greater or less complexity, and show how sensitivity analysis can be used to improve FRAP model formulation. Lastly, we show how sophisticated global sensitivity analysis can be used to detect over-fitting when using a model that is too complex.     

On the development and application of a continuous-discrete recursive prediction error algorithm

Recursive state and parameter reconstruction is a well-established field in control theory. In the current paper we derive a continuous-discrete version of recursive prediction error algorithm and apply the filter in an environmental and biological setting as a possible alternative to the well-known extended Kalman filter. The framework from which the derivation is started is the so-called 'innovations-format' of the (continuous time) system model, including (discrete time) measurements. After the algorithm has been motivated and derived, it is subsequently applied to hypothetical and 'real-life' case studies including reconstruction of biokinetic parameters and parameters characterizing the dynamics of a river in the United Kingdom. Advantages and characteristics of the method are discussed.     

RankAggreg, an R package for weighted rank aggregation

Background

Determining the parameters of a mathematical model from quantitative measurements is the main bottleneck of modelling biological systems. Parameter values can be estimated from steady-state data or from dynamic data. The nature of suitable data for these two types of estimation is rather different. For instance, estimations of parameter values in pathway models, such as kinetic orders, rate constants, flux control coefficients or elasticities, from steady-state data are generally based on experiments that measure how a biochemical system responds to small perturbations around the steady state. In contrast, parameter estimation from dynamic data requires time series measurements for all dependent variables. Almost no literature has so far discussed the combined use of both steady-state and transient data for estimating parameter values of biochemical systems.

Results

In this study we introduce a constrained optimization method for estimating parameter values of biochemical pathway models using steady-state information and transient measurements. The constraints are derived from the flux connectivity relationships of the system at the steady state. Two case studies demonstrate the estimation results with and without flux connectivity constraints. The unconstrained optimal estimates from dynamic data may fit the experiments well, but they do not necessarily maintain the connectivity relationships. As a consequence, individual fluxes may be misrepresented, which may cause problems in later extrapolations. By contrast, the constrained estimation accounting for flux connectivity information reduces this misrepresentation and thereby yields improved model parameters.

Conclusion

The method combines transient metabolic profiles and steady-state information and leads to the formulation of an inverse parameter estimation task as a constrained optimization problem. Parameter estimation and model selection are simultaneously carried out on the constrained optimization problem and yield realistic model parameters that are more likely to hold up in extrapolations with the model.     

The use of CO2 flux time series for parameter and carbon stock estimation in carbon cycle research

Data assimilation (DA) is increasingly being employed to estimate the parameters and states of terrestrial ecosystem models from eddy covariance measurements of net carbon (C) fluxes. The length of the observation time series used varies for each study. The impact of these differences has not been quantified explicitly. Therefore, in this study, we investigate the importance of the time series length relative to observation noise and data gaps. Different length synthetic time series are used to determine the parameter and C stocks of a simple ecosystem C model. Two commonly used DA schemes are tested: the sequential Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and a batch Metropolis Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Longer time series improve both the parameter and C pool estimates of the EnKF, while adversely affecting those of the Metropolis algorithm. For both DA approaches, the length of the time series has more influence on the parameter and pool estimates than the level of random noise or amount of data. In this study, the EnKF provides more robust parameter and C pool estimates than the Metropolis algorithm. Optimized parameters and states are often used as the basis for forecasting future responses. Despite having better parameter and C pool estimates, EnKF forecasts estimates have much larger uncertainties than the Metropolis algorithm forecast estimates. Finally, we suggest that the structure of simple box models, as used in this study, introduces a large degree of equifinality into DA. Neither DA scheme correctly accounts for the equifinality, but our results suggest that it is particularly problematic for the batch Metropolis algorithm.     

Dynamical estimation of neuron and network properties II: path integral Monte Carlo methods

Hodgkin–Huxley (HH) models of neuronal membrane dynamics consist of a set of nonlinear differential equations that describe the time-varying conductance of various ion channels. Using observations of voltage alone we show how to estimate the unknown parameters and unobserved state variables of an HH model in the expected circumstance that the measurements are noisy, the model has errors, and the state of the neuron is not known when observations commence. The joint probability distribution of the observed membrane voltage and the unobserved state variables and parameters of these models is a path integral through the model state space. The solution to this integral allows estimation of the parameters and thus a characterization of many biological properties of interest, including channel complement and density, that give rise to a neuron’s electrophysiological behavior. This paper describes a method for directly evaluating the path integral using a Monte Carlo numerical approach. This provides estimates not only of the expected values of model parameters but also of their posterior uncertainty. Using test data simulated from neuronal models comprising several common channels, we show that short (<50 ms) intracellular recordings from neurons stimulated with a complex time-varying current yield accurate and precise estimates of the model parameters as well as accurate predictions of the future behavior of the neuron. We also show that this method is robust to errors in model specification, supporting model development for biological preparations in which the channel expression and other biophysical properties of the neurons are not fully known.     

A self-organizing state-space-model approach for parameter estimation in hodgkin-huxley-type models of single neurons

Traditional approaches to the problem of parameter estimation in biophysical models of neurons and neural networks usually adopt a global search algorithm (for example, an evolutionary algorithm), often in combination with a local search method (such as gradient descent) in order to minimize the value of a cost function, which measures the discrepancy between various features of the available experimental data and model output. In this study, we approach the problem of parameter estimation in conductance-based models of single neurons from a different perspective. By adopting a hidden-dynamical-systems formalism, we expressed parameter estimation as an inference problem in these systems, which can then be tackled using a range of well-established statistical inference methods. The particular method we used was Kitagawa's self-organizing state-space model, which was applied on a number of Hodgkin-Huxley-type models using simulated or actual electrophysiological data. We showed that the algorithm can be used to estimate a large number of parameters, including maximal conductances, reversal potentials, kinetics of ionic currents, measurement and intrinsic noise, based on low-dimensional experimental data and sufficiently informative priors in the form of pre-defined constraints imposed on model parameters. The algorithm remained operational even when very noisy experimental data were used. Importantly, by combining the self-organizing state-space model with an adaptive sampling algorithm akin to the Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy, we achieved a significant reduction in the variance of parameter estimates. The algorithm did not require the explicit formulation of a cost function and it was straightforward to apply on compartmental models and multiple data sets. Overall, the proposed methodology is particularly suitable for resolving high-dimensional inference problems based on noisy electrophysiological data and, therefore, a potentially useful tool in the construction of biophysical neuron models.     

Optimal identification of biochemical reaction networks

Advances in biotechnology and computer science are providing the possibility to construct mathematical models for complex biological networks and systematically understand their properties. Traditional network identification approaches, however, cannot accurately recover the model parameters from the noisy laboratory measurements. This article introduces the concept of optimal identification (OI), which utilizes a global inversion algorithm to extract the full distribution of parameters consistent with the laboratory data. In addition, OI integrates suitable computational algorithms with experimental capabilities in a closed loop fashion to maximally reduce the breadth of the extracted parameter distribution. The closed loop OI procedure seeks out the optimal set of control chemical fluxes and data observations that actively filter out experimental noise and enhance the sensitivity to the desired parameters. In this fashion, the highest quality network parameters can be attained from inverting the tailored laboratory data. The operation of OI is illustrated by identifying a simulated tRNA proofreading mechanism, in which OI provides superior solutions for all the rate constants compared with suboptimal and nonoptimal methods.     

Practical limits for reverse engineering of dynamical systems: a statistical analysis of sensitivity and parameter inferability in systems biology models

The size and complexity of cellular systems make building predictive models an extremely difficult task. In principle dynamical time-course data can be used to elucidate the structure of the underlying molecular mechanisms, but a central and recurring problem is that many and very different models can be fitted to experimental data, especially when the latter are limited and subject to noise. Even given a model, estimating its parameters remains challenging in real-world systems. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of 180 systems biology models, which allows us to classify the parameters with respect to their contribution to the overall dynamical behaviour of the different systems. Our results reveal candidate elements of control in biochemical pathways that differentially contribute to dynamics. We introduce sensitivity profiles that concisely characterize parameter sensitivity and demonstrate how this can be connected to variability in data. Systematically linking data and model sloppiness allows us to extract features of dynamical systems that determine how well parameters can be estimated from time-course measurements, and associates the extent of data required for parameter inference with the model structure, and also with the global dynamical state of the system. The comprehensive analysis of so many systems biology models reaffirms the inability to estimate precisely most model or kinetic parameters as a generic feature of dynamical systems, and provides safe guidelines for performing better inferences and model predictions in the context of reverse engineering of mathematical models for biological systems.     

Adjoint multi-start-based estimation of cardiac hyperelastic material parameters using shear data

Cardiac muscle tissue during relaxation is commonly modeled as a hyperelastic material with strongly nonlinear and anisotropic stress response. Adapting the behavior of such a model to experimental or patient data gives rise to a parameter estimation problem which involves a significant number of parameters. Gradient-based optimization algorithms provide a way to solve such nonlinear parameter estimation problems with relatively few iterations, but require the gradient of the objective functional with respect to the model parameters. This gradient has traditionally been obtained using finite differences, the calculation of which scales linearly with the number of model parameters, and introduces a differencing error. By using an automatically derived adjoint equation, we are able to calculate this gradient more efficiently, and with minimal implementation effort. We test this adjoint framework on a least squares fitting problem involving data from simple shear tests on cardiac tissue samples. A second challenge which arises in gradient-based optimization is the dependency of the algorithm on a suitable initial guess. We show how a multi-start procedure can alleviate this dependency. Finally, we provide estimates for the material parameters of the Holzapfel and Ogden strain energy law using finite element models together with experimental shear data.     

Using the Kalman filter and dynamic models to assess the changing HIV/AIDS epidemic

Many factors, including therapy and behavioral changes, have modified the course of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in recent years. To include these modifications in HIV/AIDS models, in the absence of appropriate external data sources, changes over time in the parameters can be incorporated by a recursive estimation technique such as the Kalman filter. The Kalman filter accounts for stochastic fluctuations in both the model and the data and provides a means to assess any parameter modifications included in new observations. The Kalman filter approach was applied to a simple differential model to describe the observed HIV/AIDS epidemic in the homo/bisexual male community in Paris (France). This approach gave quantitative information on the time-evolution of some parameters of major epidemiological significance (average transmission rate, mean incubation rate, and basic reproduction rate), which appears quite consistent with the recent epidemiological literature.     

Optimal fed batch experiment design for estimation of monod kinetics of Azospirillum brasilense: from theory to practice

In this paper the problem of reliable and accurate parameter estimation for unstructured models is considered. It is illustrated how a theoretically optimal design can be successfully translated into a practically feasible, robust, and informative experiment. The well-known parameter estimation problem of Monod kinetic parameters is used as a vehicle to illustrate our approach. As known for a long time, noisy batch measurements do not allow for unique and accurate estimation of the kinetic parameters of the Monod model. Techniques of optimal experiment design are, therefore, exploited to design informative experiments and to improve the parameter estimation accuracy. During the design process, practical feasibility has to be kept in mind. The designed experiments are easy to implement in practice and do not require additional monitoring equipment. Both design and experimental validation of informative fed batch experiments are illustrated with a case study, namely, the growth of the nitrogen-fixing bacteria Azospirillum brasilense.