Exploring tree species colonization potentials using a spatially explicit simulation model: implications for four oaks under climate change

Climate change impacts tree species differentially by exerting unique pressures and altering their suitable habitats. We previously predicted these changes in suitable habitat for current and future climates using a species habitat model (DISTRIB) in the eastern United States. Based on the accuracy of the model, the species assemblages should eventually reflect the new quasi‐equilibrium suitable habitats (~2100) after accounting for the lag in colonization. However, it is an open question if and when these newly suitable habitats will be colonized under current fragmented landscapes and realistic migration rates. To evaluate this, we used a spatially explicit cell‐based model (SHIFT) that estimates colonization potentials under current fragmented habitats and several estimates of historical migration rates at a 1 km resolution. Computation time, which was previously the biggest constraint, was overcome by a novel application of convolution and Fast Fourier Transforms. SHIFT outputs, when intersected with future suitable habitats predicted by DISTRIB, allow assessment of colonization potential under future climates. In this article, we show how our approach can be used to screen multiple tree species for their colonization potentials under climate change. In particular, we use the DISTRIB and SHIFT models in combination to assess if the future dominant forest types in the north will really be dominated by oaks, as modelled via DISTRIB. Even under optimistic scenarios, we conclude that only a small fraction of the suitable habitats of oaks predicted by DISTRIB is likely to be occupied within 100 years, and this will be concentrated in the first 10–20 km from the current boundary. We also show how DISTRIB and SHIFT can be used to evaluate the potential for assisted migration of vulnerable tree species, and discuss the dynamics of colonization at range limits.     

Distribution of the genus Mallomonas (Synurophyceae) - ubiquitous dispersal in microorganisms evaluated

The neutral dispersal model in protists was suggested as a general principle resulting in either cosmopolitan or ecologically restricted distribution of individual species. The high local diversity results in "flat" species-area curves of individual protist groups. We investigated the local and regional diversity of the genus Mallomonas in the alluvial plain of upper Luznice in the Czech Republic. About 86.5% of species previously reported from all types of freshwater biotopes within the country were found in our investigated localities. However, there was a considerable increase of species numbers in relation to the total area of available habitats on the continent and global scales. In three species found in our localities, the floristic data indicate a possible geographically restricted distributional pattern. Here, we discuss possible reasons for this phenomenon.     

The distribution and dispersal of the introduced millipede, Ommatoiulus moreletii (Diplopoda: Iulidae), in Australia

The millipede, Ommatoiulus moreletii, is indigenous to South-Western Europe. The species has been introduced to Australia where it is in large numbers and constitutes a severe nuisance.
The distribution of O. moreletii in Australia is increasing. Man appears to be a major factor in the establishment of new outbreaks of the species. Individual outbreaks spread slowly but steadily (an expansion of up to 200 metres in radius per year).
The abundance of O. moreletii in Australia relative to its apparent rarity in Southwestern Europe cannot be explained by differences in general climate.
The variety of habitats colonized by O. moreletii in Australia is already wide and there is no reason to doubt that the species will continue to spread much further.     

No positive correlation between species and genetic diversity in European alpine grasslands dominated by Carex curvula

The distributional range of alpine plants experienced dramatic changes during the Quaternary ice ages. These changes offer many opportunities for studying the impact of habitat contraction and fragmentation on both species and genetic diversity. Here, we examined the amplified fragment length polymorphism-based genetic diversity in the sedge Carex curvula All. in relation to the species diversity of siliceous European alpine grasslands in which the sedge is dominant. We found no relationship or even a negative relationship between genetic and species diversity indices. Local species richness was associated with the regional pool size of siliceous alpine species, which was itself dependent on the extant area of suitable habitats for these species. Genetic diversity of C. curvula was primarily shaped by the presumed location of glacial refugia and the routes of post-glacial colonization. We conclude that the two levels of diversity are not positively correlated because genotypes and species do not respond similarly to the spatial dynamics of suitable habitats induced by Quaternary temperature changes.     

Genetic diversity and connectivity of deep‐sea hydrothermal vent metapopulations

Deep‐sea hydrothermal vents provide ephemeral habitats for animal communities that depend on chemosynthetic primary production. Sporadic volcanic and tectonic events destroy local vent fields and create new ones. Ongoing dispersal and cycles of extirpation and colonization affect the levels and distribution of genetic diversity in vent metapopulations. Several species exhibit evidence for stepping‐stone dispersal along relatively linear, oceanic, ridge axes. Other species exhibit very high rates of gene flow, although natural barriers associated with variation in depth, deep‐ocean currents, and lateral offsets of ridge axes often subdivide populations. Various degrees of impedance to dispersal across such boundaries are products of species‐specific life histories and behaviours. Though unrelated to the size of a species range, levels of genetic diversity appear to correspond with the number of active vent localities that a species occupies within its range. Pioneer species that rapidly colonize nascent vents tend to be less subdivided and more diverse genetically than species that are slow to establish colonies at vents. Understanding the diversity and connectivity of vent metapopulations provides essential information for designing deep‐sea preserves in regions that are under consideration for submarine mining of precious metals.     

Patterns of commonness and rarity in central European birds: reliability of the core-satellite hypothesis within a large scale

The frequency distribution of species’ area of occupancy is often bimodal, most species being either very rare or very common in terms of number of occupied sites. This pattern has been attributed to the nonlinearity associated with metapopulation dynamics of the species, but there are also other explanations comprising sampling artifact and frequency distribution of suitable habitats. We tested whether the bimodal frequency distribution of occupied squares in central European birds could be derived solely from the frequency distribution of species population sizes (i.e. the sampling artifact hypothesis) or from the spatial distribution of their preferred habitats. Both models predict high proportion of very common species, i.e. the right side of frequency distribution. Bimodality itself is well predicted by models based on random placement of individuals according to their abundances but neither model predicts the observed prevalence of rare species. Even the combined models that assume random placement of individuals within the squares with suitable habitat do not predict such a high proportion of rare species. The observed distribution is more aggregated, rare species occupying a smaller portion of suitable habitat than predicted on the basis of their abundance. The pattern is consistent with metapopulation processes involving local population extinctions. The involvement of these processes is supported by two further observations. First, species rarity is associated with significant population trend and/or location on the edge of their ranges within central Europe, both situations presumably associated with metapopulation processes. Second, suitable habitats seem to be either saturated or almost unoccupied, which is consistent with the predictions of the metapopulation model based on nonlinear dynamics of extinction and colonization. Although the habitat suitability is an important determinant of species distribution, the rarity of many species of birds within this scale of observation seems to be affected by other factors, including local population extinctions associated with fragmentation of species’ habitats.     

大沙鼠在中国的地理分布

搜集了大沙鼠在中国的分布资料，运用地理信息系统（ＧＩＳ）的叠加和空间分析功能，结合生境，利用１：４００００００比例尺中国植被图和１：１００００００比例尺中国草地资源图，对我国大沙鼠的地理分布进行了系统研究。根据大沙鼠对梭梭和盐爪爪盐漠，梭梭、红砂培漠，梭梭在乐漠，沙拐枣沙漠，茺漠盐生草 盐地要柳灌丛和柽柳包，极稀疏地柽柳沙漠，红砂砾漠、禾草拐枣沙漠，荒漠盐生草甸的盐地柽柳灌丛和柽柳包，极稀疏的柽柳     

When Local Extinction and Colonization of River Fishes Can Be Predicted by Regional Occupancy: the Role of Spatial Scales

Background

Predicting which species are likely to go extinct is perhaps one of the most fundamental yet challenging tasks for conservation biologists. This is particularly relevant for freshwater ecosystems which tend to have the highest proportion of species threatened with extinction. According to metapopulation theories, local extinction and colonization rates of freshwater subpopulations can depend on the degree of regional occupancy, notably due to rescue effects. However, relationships between extinction, colonization, regional occupancy and the spatial scales at which they operate are currently poorly known.

Methods

And Findings: We used a large dataset of freshwater fish annual censuses in 325 stream reaches to analyse how annual extinction/colonization rates of subpopulations depend on the regional occupancy of species. For this purpose, we modelled the regional occupancy of 34 fish species over the whole French river network and we tested how extinction/colonization rates could be predicted by regional occupancy described at five nested spatial scales. Results show that extinction and colonization rates depend on regional occupancy, revealing existence a rescue effect. We also find that these effects are scale dependent and their absolute contribution to colonization and extinction tends to decrease from river section to larger basin scales.

Conclusions

In terms of management, we show that regional occupancy quantification allows the evaluation of local species extinction/colonization dynamics and reduction of local extinction risks for freshwater fish species implies the preservation of suitable habitats at both local and drainage basin scales.     

Are land bird assemblages functionally saturated? An empirical test in Mexico

According to the model of ideal free distribution, few or no assemblages will contain unused resources as long as species are free to colonize areas where resources are available. Consequently, because several food resources for birds are available throughout Mexico (nectar, seeds and fruits, vertebrates, carrion and different types of invertebrates), we predicted that all assemblages from Mexico contain birds from the corresponding foraging guilds. However, severe climates may prevent colonization by certain birds. Thus, a second prediction was that, if assemblages with unused resources were found, these would be from localities with climates that pose extreme stress (either extremely high temperature and low rainfall, or extremely low temperature). We tested these predictions on bird assemblages from 77 localities that represent the entire range of climatic conditions found in Mexico. Only two assemblages containing unused resources were found. These were from the localities with lowest temperature and lowest rainfall, respectively. We observed that land bird assemblages in Mexico do not contain unused resources, except when climate selectively restricts colonization by species from certain foraging guilds. Therefore, we conclude that even assemblages with almost no species in common have a common guild structure based on food resources. Null models of competition would be more realistic if they were to incorporate such patterns in their regional species pools.     

Patterns of Orthoptera abundance and lesser kestrel conservation in arable landscapes

The lesser kestrel Falco naumanni experienced a marked decline during the second half of the 20th century due to changes in land use that influenced breeding success by reducing the abundance and quality of prey. However, the factors governing spatial and temporal variation of prey abundance around lesser kestrel colonies has not yet been investigated. We sampled Orthoptera abundance in the main crop types and edge habitats surrounding six lesser kestrel colonies in southern Spain. Samplings focused on Orthoptera because they constitute the main prey during the nestling period. Only those Orthoptera species that are known to be preyed by lesser kestrels were considered in this study. We found differences in prey density among localities, and crop types. Semi-natural habitats such as grasslands, fallow land, and field margins held the highest densities. However, prey abundance showed a complex pattern that was not possible to explain solely on the basis of crop composition around colonies. Factors determining productivity in individual fields like soil type and productivity or biocide input, and mean size of agricultural fields contributed to explain this complex pattern of prey abundance. Our results highlight the key role of semi-natural and edge habitats in farmed landscapes as prey reservoirs and corridors. Higher conservation priorities for these habitats are suggested to benefit foraging lesser kestrels, but many other farmland species that also experienced steep population declines due to decreasing food supply resulting from modern agriculture.     

Ectoparasite community structure on three closely related seabird hosts: a multiscale approach combining ecological and genetic data

Parasite communities can be structured at different spatial scales depending on the level of organization of the hosts; hence, examining this structure should be a multiscale process. We investigated ectoparasite community structure in three closely related seabird hosts, the Mediterranean Cory's shearwater Calonectris diomedea diomedea , the Atlantic Cory's shearwater C. d. borealis and the Cape Verde shearwater C. edwardsii . This community was composed of three lice ( Halipeurus abnormis , Austromenopon echinatum and Saemundssonia peusi) and one flea species ( Xenopsylla gratiosa ), and was considered at the infra-, component and regional community levels. We examined temporal and spatial structuring of the infracommunities, the influence of host aggregation and body condition on the component community, and the effect of genetic and geographic connectivity among host populations on the regional community. Ectoparasite infracommunities showed substantial species overlaps in temporal patterns of abundance, but species were spatially segregated within the host body. Within component communities, all ectoparasite species showed an aggregated distribution in abundance. However, aggregation patterns and their relationships with the spatial distribution of hosts within the breeding colony differed among ectoparasite species, mainly reflecting ecological differences between fleas and lice. At the regional scale, similarity in ectoparasite communities correlated with geographic distances among host colonies, but not with genetic distances. This result suggests differences in climate and habitat characteristics among host localities as a major determinant of regional communities, rather than host connectivity. Taken together, our results highlight the importance of the geographic distribution of host breeding colonies and the spatial segregation within the host body as key factors in determining ectoparasite community structure in Calonectris shearwaters.     

The rarity concept and the commonness of rarity in freshwater zooplankton

1. Regional distribution, frequency of occurrence and relative abundance were scored in 2467 Norwegian lakes for all the recorded 130 species of crustacean zooplankton. The majority of species were rare in the sense that 65% of species were recorded in fewer than 10% of localities. Only six species were recorded in more than 50% of localities, and the median number of species in a given locality was 14 (i.e. 10% of the total species pool). 2. Abundances of all species were scored according to the fraction of lakes in which they were recorded, their geographical range of distribution, and their numerical abundance. Typically the most rare species were rare by all three criteria, and vice versa for the common species, pointing to rarity as an inherent property of some species. For some species this rarity reflects being on the edge of their distributional range, while for others rarity seems to be a consequence of their life cycle strategies. 3. Some of the truly rare species have high dispersal rates and high colonization abilities, but are rapidly replaced by other species. Others are confined to specific habitats, often highly eutrophic, pointing to highly specialized niche adaptations. 4. A major cause for the few truly common species seems to be the limited number of species that are able to coexist within a given locality, reflecting ‘the ghost of competition past’ and predation pressure. 5. While species composition and species richness may reflect colonization abilities and stochastic events, the presence or absence of species is not only a random lottery but also a consequence of species‐specific attributes.     

Diversity, distinctiveness and conservation status of the Mediterranean coastal dung beetle assemblage in the Regional Natural Park of the Camargue (France)

The Mediterranean region as a whole has the highest dung beetle species richness within Europe. Natural coastal habitats in this region are among those which have suffered severe human disturbance. We studied dung beetle diversity and distinctiveness within one of the most important coastal protected areas in the west Euro‐Mediterranean region (the regional Park of Camargue, southern France) and made comparisons of dung beetle assemblages with other nearby Mediterranean localities, as well as with other coastal protected area (Doñana National Park, Spain). Our finding showed that: (1) The species richness of coastal habitats in the Camargue is low and only grasslands showed a similar level of species richness and abundance to inland habitats of other Mediterranean localities. The unique habitats of the coastal area (beaches, dunes and marshes) are largely colonized by species widely distributed in the hinterland. (2) In spite of their low general distinctiveness, dune and marsh edges are characterized by the occurrence of two rare, vulnerable, specialized and large roller dung beetle species of the genus Scarabaeus. As with other Mediterranean localities, current findings suggest a recent decline of Scarabaeus populations and the general loss of coastal dung beetle communities in Camargue. (3) The comparison of dung beetle assemblages between the Camargue and Doñana shows that, in spite of the low local dung beetle species richness in the Camargue, the regional dung beetle diversity is similar between both protected areas. Unique historical and geographical factors can explain the convergence in regional diversity as well as the striking divergence in the composition of dung beetle assemblages between both territories.     

Diversity patterns of stygobiotic crustaceans across multiple spatial scales in Europe

1. Using species distribution data from 111 aquifers distributed in nine European regions, we examined the pairwise relationships between local species richness (LSR), dissimilarity in species composition among localities, and regional species richness (RSR). In addition, we quantified the relative contribution of three nested spatial units – aquifers, catchments and regions – to the overall richness of groundwater crustaceans.
2. The average number of species in karst and porous aquifers (LSR) varied significantly among regions and was dependent upon the richness of the regional species pool (RSR). LSR–RSR relationships differed between habitats: species richness in karstic local communities increased linearly with richness of the surrounding region, whereas that of porous local communities levelled off beyond a certain value of RSR.
3. Dissimilarity in species composition among aquifers of a region increased significantly with increasing regional richness because of stronger habitat specialisation and a decrease in the geographic range of species among karst aquifers. Species turnover among karst aquifers was positively related to RSR, whereas this relationship was not significant for porous aquifers.
4. The contribution of a given spatial unit to total richness increased as size of the spatial unit increased, although 72% of the overall richness was attributed to among-region diversity. Differences in community composition between similar habitats in different regions were typically more pronounced than between nearby communities from different habitats.
5. We conclude by calling for biodiversity assessment methods and conservation strategies that explicitly integrate the importance of turnover in community composition and habitat dissimilarity at multiple spatial scales.     

Ecological niche modelling of montane mammals in the Great Basin, North America: examining past and present connectivity of species across basins and ranges

Aim The goal of this study was to determine the extent of suitable habitats across the basins and ranges of the Great Basin for 13 montane mammals in the present and during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). For all these mammal species, we test whether: (1) more suitable habitat was available in basin areas during the LGM; (2) suitable habitat shifted upwards in elevation between the LGM and the present; (3) more ranges have suitable habitat than are currently occupied; and (4) these species are currently restricted to suitable habitats at higher‐elevation range areas. We also examine whether and how much distributional response varies among these montane mammal species. Location The Great Basin of western North America. Methods We re‐examine the past and present distributions of 13 Great Basin montane mammals using ecological niche modelling techniques that utilize now widely available species occurrence data and new, fine‐scale past climatological GIS layers in the present and at the LGM. These methods provide an objective, repeatable means for visual comparison of past and present modelled distributions for species examined in previous biogeographical studies. Results Our results indicate greater areal and lower elevational suitable habitat in the LGM than at present for nearly all montane mammals, and that there is more suitable habitat at present than is currently occupied. Our results also show that lowland areas provide suitable dispersal routes between ranges for most of the montane mammals both at the LGM and at present. However, three of the 13 species have little to no predicted suitable habitat in the LGM near currently occupied ranges, in contrast to the pattern for the other 10. For these species, the model results support more recent long‐distance colonization. Main conclusions Our finding of suitable lowland dispersal routes in the present for most species supports and greatly extends similar findings from single‐species studies. Our results also provide a visually striking confirmation that changes in species distribution and colonization histories of Great Basin montane mammals vary in a fashion related to the tolerances and requirements of each of these species; this has previously been hypothesized but not rigorously tested for multiple montane mammals in the region.     

Colonization and dispersal in a social species, the Bechstein's bat (Myotis bechsteinii)

Metapopulation genetic models consider that colonization and dispersal are distinct behaviours. However, whether colonization and dispersal indeed reflect different biological processes in nature is unclear. One possibility to test this assumption is to assess patterns of autosomal and mitochondrial genetic structure in species with strict female philopatry, such as the communally breeding Bechstein's bat. In this species, mitochondrial DNA can spread only when females establish new colonies, and autosomal DNA is transmitted among colonies only when females mate with solitary males born in foreign colonies. Investigating the genetic structure among 37 colonies, we found that autosomal genes followed an island model on a regional scale and a model of isolation by distance on a larger geographical scale. In contrast, mitochondrial genetic structure revealed no pattern of isolation by distance at a large scale but exhibited an effect of ecological barriers on a regional scale. Our results provide strong empirical evidence that colonization and dispersal do not follow the same behavioural rules in this bat, supporting the assumption of metapopulation genetic models.     

Equilibrium or not? Modelling potential distribution of invasive species in different stages of invasion

Aim The assumption of equilibrium between organisms and their environment is a standard working postulate in species distribution models (SDMs). However, this assumption is typically violated in models of biological invasions where range expansions are highly constrained by dispersal and colonization processes. Here, we examined how stage of invasion affects the extent to which occurrence data represent the ecological niche of organisms and, in turn, influences spatial prediction of species’ potential distributions. Location Six ecoregions in western Oregon, USA. Methods We compiled occurrence data from 697 field plots collected over a 9‐year period (2001–09) of monitoring the spread of invasive forest pathogen Phytophthora ramorum. Using these data, we applied ecological‐niche factor analysis to calibrate models of potential distribution across different years of colonization. We accounted for natural variation and uncertainties in model evaluation by further investigating three hypothetical scenarios of varying equilibrium in a simulated virtual species, for which the ‘true’ potential distribution was known. Results We confirm our hypothesis that SDMs calibrated in early stages of invasion are less accurate than models calibrated under scenarios closer to equilibrium. SDMs that are developed in early stages of invasion tend to underpredict the potential range compared to models that are built in later stages of invasion. Main conclusions A full environmental niche of invasive species cannot be effectively captured with data from a realized distribution that is restricted by processes preventing full occupancy of suitable habitats. If SDMs are to be used effectively in conservation and management, stage of invasion needs to be considered to avoid underestimation of habitats at risk of invasion.     

Colonization of dynamic Mediterranean landscapes: where do birds come from after fire?

Aim Two main mechanisms may explain post‐disturbance species colonization patterns of early successional habitats such as those originated by wildfires. First, post‐disturbance colonization is not limited by the dispersal ability of the species to reach the newly created open areas and, secondly, colonization is limited by dispersal. Under the first hypothesis, we expect, at a regional scale, to find similar post‐disturbance communities to develop on recently burned sites. However, colonization limited by dispersal will lead to strong between‐site variations in species composition. Location To test these hypotheses, we studied the post‐fire colonization patterns of nine open‐habitat bird species in eight distantly located wildfires in the north‐eastern Iberian Peninsula. Methods We censused post‐fire bird composition by means of field transects and identified potential colonization sources from species–habitat suitability maps derived from atlas data. Results Our results showed strong significant differences in post‐fire species composition between burnt areas. Burnt areas located in areas with low probability of species presence before the fire event showed lower species occurrence and richness after the fire. Main conclusions These results do not support the idea that early successional stages and open habitats have a homogeneous community structure at regional scales and suggest that dispersal is a key constraint determining bird colonization of post‐fire habitats. Further attention should be paid to landscape heterogeneity as a key factor in determining population dynamics of open‐habitat species in the light of current and future land‐use changes in Mediterranean regions.     

Niche Conservatism and the Future Potential Range of Epipactis helleborine (Orchidaceae)

The aim of the present study was to evaluate the current distribution of suitable niches for the invasive orchid species, Epipactis helleborine, and to estimate the possibility of its further expansion. Moreover, niche modeling tools were used to explain its rapid expansion in North America and to test the niche conservatism of the species. The maximum entropy method was used to create models of the suitable niche distribution. A database of E. helleborine localities was prepared based on the examination of herbarium specimens, information from electronic databases as well as data gathered during field works. The differences between the niches occupied by native and invasive populations were evaluated using the niche overlap and niche identity test indexes. Moreover, the coverage of the most suitable habitats for the species was measured for three future scenarios as well as for the present time model. Populations of E. helleborine occupy North American west coast habitats very similar to those preferred by native, Eurasian populations, while the expansion in the east coast is related to the niche shift. The created models of suitable niche distribution indicate that the species does not realize its potential niche in the native range. The total surface of the habitats potentially available for E. helleborine will decrease in all climate change scenarios created for 2080.     

Equilibrium biogeography and the size of nature preserves: An avian case study

Summary The results of seven breeding bird censuses on an upland site in Connecticut from 1953 to 1976 are analyzed and related to changes in vegetation and surrounding urbanization during the same period. Turnover of breeding bird species on the old-field portion of the site was due to vegetational changes that caused the extinction of species preferring open shrub habitats and the colonization of species preferring forest. Turnover of breeding birds on the forest portion was due to its increasing isolation from similar forest habitat, resulting in the local extinction of forest interior species and the colonization of species characteristic of suburban habitats. The study site is too small for the preservation of forest interior bird species. It must be coordinated with larger preserves in a regional context if it is to be useful in preventing the regional extinction of forest interior bird species.