Using statistics to design and estimate vital rates in matrix population models for a perennial herb

Matrix population models are widely used to assess population status and to inform management decisions. Despite existing theories for building such models, model construction is often partially based on expert opinion. So far, model structure has received relatively little attention, although it may affect estimates of population dynamics. Here, we assessed the consequences of two published matrix structures (a 4 × 4 matrix based on expert opinion and a 10 × 10 matrix based on statistical modeling) for estimates of vital rates and stochastic population dynamics of the long-lived herb Astragalus scaphoides. We explored the ways in which choice of model structure alters the accuracy (i.e., mean) and precision (i.e., variance) of predicted population dynamics. We found that model structure had a negligible effect on the accuracy and precision of vital rates and stochastic stage distribution. However, the 10 × 10 matrix produced lower estimates of stochastic population growth rates than the 4 × 4 matrix, and more accurately predicted the observed trends in population abundance for three out of four study populations. Moreover, estimates of realized variation in population growth rate due to fluctuations in population stage structure over time were occasionally sensitive to matrix structure, suggesting differential roles of transient dynamics. Our study indicates that statistical modeling for choosing categories in matrix models might be preferable over expert opinion to accurately predict population trends and can provide a more objective way for model construction when the biological knowledge of the species is limited.     

Isolation and characterization of microsatellite loci in a polyploid alpine herb,Callianthemum miyabeanum (Ranunculaceae)

• Premise of the study: Nuclear microsatellite primers were developed to analyze the clonal diversity and population genetic structure of the endemic polyploid herb Callianthemum miyabeanum. • Methods and Results: Using a protocol for constructing microsatellite-enriched libraries, 15 primer sets were developed for use in C. miyabeanum. The number of alleles found ranged from five to 22. The estimated range of expected heterozygosities was 0.574 to 0.907, and the Shannon–Weiner diversity index ranged from 1.061 to 2.733. Cross-amplification of all loci was also successful in the closely related endemic species C. kirigishiense and C. hondoense. • Conclusions: The development of these microsatellite loci will facilitate a deeper understanding of the genetic diversity, mode of reproduction, and population structure of not only C. miyabeanum, but also the other Callianthemum species endemic to Japan.     

A hybrid zone dominated by fertile F1s of two alpine shrub species, Phyllodoce caerulea and Phyllodoce aleutica, along a snowmelt gradient

In alpine ecosystems, the steep environmental gradients produced by the difference in snowmelt timing create a dynamic selective regime for alpine plants. As these gradients directly alter flowering phenology, they can affect pollen-mediated gene flow among populations of single and related species. In northern Japan, we found a hybrid zone dominated by fertile F(1)s of two alpine shrub species, Phyllodoce caerulea and P. aleutica, along a snowmelt gradient. Seed germination confirmed the fertility of F(1) hybrid, making the rarity and absence of backcross and F(2) plants puzzling. The long-term clonal perpetuation of F(1) hybrids (at least a few thousand years ago) contributes the maintenance of this unique hybrid zone. The distribution patterns of chloroplast DNA haplotypes suggest that F(1) formation might be caused by directional pollen flow between parental species along the snowmelt gradient. Based on these results, we discuss the ecological and evolutionary significance of this unique hybrid zone.     

Potential impacts of climate change on stable flies, investigated along an altitudinal gradient

Adult populations of stable flies were sampled along an altitudinal transect in Reunion Island to determine whether higher temperatures were associated with: (a) higher numbers of flies; (b) a longer season of infestation, and/or (c) different responses to warming in the cosmopolitan Stomoxys calcitrans (L) and the tropical Stomoxys niger niger Macquart (Diptera: Muscidae). Flies of both species were trapped at seven farms situated at four altitudes (100-1600 m a.s.l.) over a 90-week period. For both species, there were no relationships between the maximum or mean fly abundance and altitude. Only minimum abundance in winter was significantly higher at lower altitudes. Maximum and mean abundances differed significantly between nearby farms under similar climatic conditions. Seasonal fluctuations in fly abundance changed along the gradient. At lower altitudes, population growth started earlier after the winter but abundance declined earlier in summer, which resulted in a shift of the season of infestation. Seasonal fluctuations of both species were strongly related to climate variables at high altitude, mainly temperature. However, climate variables explained a decreasing proportion of the variations in abundance at lower altitudes. Stomoxys calcitrans was the most abundant species overall, but the proportion of S. n. niger increased significantly at lower altitudes and this species became predominant at 100 m a.s.l. It is concluded that stable fly infestations are unlikely to worsen in response to global warming. Maximum abundance is limited by local factors, possibly larval resources, which suggests that adequate husbandry practices could override the impact of climate change. Because S. n. niger tends to be the predominant pest at elevated temperatures, it is recommended that this species should not be introduced in areas where climate is changing.     

藏北高寒草甸群落结构与物种组成对增温与施氮的响应

气候变暖和氮沉降增加作为全球环境问题,将严重影响陆地生态系统的结构与功能.研究发现,近几十年来青藏高原增温显著,其中冬季升温最明显.而已有的研究更多关注全年增温,对冬季增温研究较少.本文基于高寒草甸地区增温和氮素添加影响研究的不足,在青藏高原高寒草甸区开展模拟增温和氮添加试验,研究长期增温与氮添加对高寒草甸群落结构与物种组成的影响.试验布设于2010年7月,地点在西藏当雄高寒草甸区,共有3种增温方式:对照、全年增温、冬季增温;每种增温处理下设置5个氮素添加梯度:0、10、20、40、80 kg N·hm^-2·a^-1,系统研究气候变暖与氮添加对高寒草甸生态系统群落结构与物种组成的影响.结果表明: 2012—2014年,增温与施氮处理均显著影响群落总盖度:全年增温处理降低了群落总盖度;在不施氮处理下,冬季增温降低了群落盖度,但在施氮处理下,随着氮剂量的提高群落盖度逐渐升高.增温与施氮对不同功能群植物的影响不同,增温处理降低了禾草与莎草植物盖度,而施氮提高了禾草植物盖度.相关分析表明,植被群落总盖度与生长旺盛期土壤含水量呈正相关关系,推测在降雨较少的季节增温导致的土壤含水量降低是群落盖度降低的主要原因.半干旱区高寒草甸土壤水分主要受降雨的调控,未来气候变化情景下,降雨时空格局的改变会显著影响植被群落盖度及组成,且大气氮沉降的增加对植被群落的影响也依赖于降雨条件的变化.     

高山垫状植物团状福禄草开花面积与方位随海拔的变化及其适应性

作为高山生态系统中的奠基种(foundation species), 垫状植物自身种群的繁殖与扩张, 对高山生态系统功能稳定性起着关键作用。但是, 垫状植物如何在极端环境条件下实现资源的有效利用与分配, 达到繁殖最优化, 至今鲜为人知。该研究在滇西北白马雪山沿海拔梯度选择具有不同坡度及坡向的5个团状福禄草(Arenaria polytrichoides)种群, 调查、比较种群内、种群间以及具有不同性系统的植株个体之间的开花面积比、开花方位, 并分析不同生态因子对其开花特性的影响。结果表明: 随着海拔的升高, 团状福禄草个体变小, 其分配到开花的资源比例总体上随海拔上升呈现下降的趋势, 说明团状福禄草的繁殖分配受到由海拔所引起的生态因子的调控。但是, 部分低海拔种群内植物个体的繁殖分配显著低于部分高海拔种群, 说明海拔并非控制植物繁殖分配的唯一因素。此外, 植株开花总面积随植株个体增大而增加, 但开花面积比却随个体增大而变小, 说明植株分配到开花的资源增长速率可能低于植株个体的增长速率。在性别差异方面, 两性植株对开花的资源分配比例要显著高于雌性植株, 但是, 其差异程度受到海拔因素的影响。最后, 在同一种群内, 团状福禄草在冠层表面不同方位上的开花面积比存在显著差异性, 这种差异性在不同种群之间又具有不同的表现形式。     

高寒退化草地不同海拔狼毒种群花大小与叶大小、叶数量的关系

植物花大小与叶大小、叶数量的关系反映了植物长期与环境相互作用形成的外在形态方面的适应对策,不同生境中其生长关系的变异体现了植物对异质环境的适应方式。本文研究了祁连山北坡高寒退化草地4个不同海拔狼毒(Stellera chamaejasme)种群花大小与叶大小、叶数量的关系。结果表明:随着海拔的升高,草地群落的高度、密度和地上生物量均呈先升高后降低的倒U型分布;狼毒的地上生物量、株高和叶大小均呈减小趋势,而繁殖分配、花大小和叶数量均呈增大的变化趋势;在海拔梯度上,狼毒花大小与叶数量呈极显著正相关(P0.01),与叶大小呈不显著负相关(P0.05),说明狼毒种群花大小与叶数量具有显著的依赖关系;生境对狼毒花大小与叶数量之间的依赖关系产生显著影响,高海拔的环境胁迫导致狼毒个体减小,植株通过增加花大小和叶数量、减小叶大小的资源分配策略来保证物种的繁衍。     

Flower heliotropism in an alpine population of Ranunculus acris (Ranunculaceae): effects on flower temperature,insect visitation,and seed production

Some plants in arctic and alpine habitats have heliotropic flowers that track the sun. This results in a heating of the flower's interior, which may improve the possibilities for insect pollination and seed production. Here, I examine whether flower heliotropism in an alpine population of the self-incompatible Ranunculus acris L. (Ranunculaceae) enhances pollinator visitation and seed production. Flowers of Ranunculus acris tracked the sun during the day. Tracking accuracy was greatest during the middle of the day. The temperature elevation in flowers was negatively correlated with the flower's angle of deviation from the sun. Despite the increased temperature, insects did not discriminate among flowers on the basis of their angle of deviation from the sun, or tend to stay longer in the flowers aligned closest towards the sun. A tethering experiment was conducted on three groups of plants flowering at different times in the 1993 season and on one group the following season. Manipulation plants were constrained not to track the sun, whereas control plants tracked the sun naturally. Solar tracking had no effect on seed:ovule ratio, seed mass, or abortion rate in any of the groups. There is probably a very narrow range of weather conditions (cold, sunny, and calm) where flower heliotropism may enhance visitation rate to flowers and their seed production.     

Diversity and assemblage structure of phytophagous Hemiptera along a latitudinal gradient: predicting the potential impacts of climate change

Aims The aims were (1) to assess the species richness and structure of phytophagous Hemiptera communities along a latitudinal gradient, (2) to identify the importance of rare species in structuring these patterns, and (3) to hypothesize about how phytophagous Hemiptera communities may respond to future climate change. Location East coast of Australia. Methods Four latitudes within the 1150 km coastal distribution of Acacia falcata were selected. The insect assemblage on the host plant Acacia falcata was sampled seasonally over two years. Congeneric plant species were also sampled at the sites. Results Ninety‐eight species of phytophagous Hemiptera were collected from A. falcata. Total species richness was significantly lower at the most temperate latitude compared to the three more tropical latitudes. We classified species into four climate change response groups depending on their latitudinal range and apparent host specificity. Pairwise comparisons between groups showed that the cosmopolitan, generalist feeders and specialists had a similar community structure to each other, but the climate generalists had a significantly different structure. Fifty‐seven species were identified as rare. Most of these rare species were phloem hoppers and their removal from the dataset led to changes in the proportional representation of all guilds in two groups: the specialist and generalist feeders. Main conclusions We found no directional increase in phytophagous Hemiptera species richness. This indicates that, at least in the short term, species richness patterns of these communities may be similar to that found today. As the climate continues to change, however, we might expect some increases in species richness at the more temperate latitudes as species migrate in response to shifting climate zones. In the longer term, more substantial changes in community composition will be expected because the rare species, which comprise a large fraction of these communities, will be vulnerable to both direct climatic changes, and indirect effects via changes to their host's distribution.     

Climate warming alters effects of management on population viability of threatened species: results from a 30‐year experimental study on a rare orchid

Climate change is expected to influence the viability of populations both directly and indirectly, via species interactions. The effects of large‐scale climate change are also likely to interact with local habitat conditions. Management actions designed to preserve threatened species therefore need to adapt both to the prevailing climate and local conditions. Yet, few studies have separated the direct and indirect effects of climatic variables on the viability of local populations and discussed the implications for optimal management. We used 30 years of demographic data to estimate the simultaneous effects of management practice and among‐year variation in four climatic variables on individual survival, growth and fecundity in one coastal and one inland population of the perennial orchid Dactylorhiza lapponica in Norway. Current management, mowing, is expected to reduce competitive interactions. Statistical models of how climate and management practice influenced vital rates were incorporated into matrix population models to quantify effects on population growth rate. Effects of climate differed between mown and control plots in both populations. In particular, population growth rate increased more strongly with summer temperature in mown plots than in control plots. Population growth rate declined with spring temperature in the inland population, and with precipitation in the coastal population, and the decline was stronger in control plots in both populations. These results illustrate that both direct and indirect effects of climate change are important for population viability and that net effects depend both on local abiotic conditions and on biotic conditions in terms of management practice and intensity of competition. The results also show that effects of management practices influencing competitive interactions can strongly depend on climatic factors. We conclude that interactions between climate and management should be considered to reliably predict future population viability and optimize conservation actions.     

青藏高原东缘匍匐茎草本野草莓的分株种群特征及其沿海拔梯度的变化

对青藏高原东缘 5个不同海拔高度 ( 2 4 2 6m、2 75 0 m、32 0 0 m、3484m和 3944m)上旷地和林下遮荫条件下匍匐茎草本野草莓的分株种群特征进行了研究。结果显示 :无论在旷地或林下遮荫条件下 ,野草莓分株种群的密度随海拔升高显著减小 ,旷地条件下野草莓分株种群密度显著高于遮荫条件下的分株种群密度。不同海拔高度上 ,野草莓分株种群密度在不同光照条件下的变化存在显著差异。旷地条件下 ,随海拔升高其根冠比呈二次曲线变化。林下遮荫条件下 ,海拔 2 4 2 6m处的根冠比最低。光照条件的变化对野草莓分株种群的根冠比没有显著影响。运用空间自相关分析法 ( Moran` I)研究和 3944m处野草莓分株种群的空间分布格局 ,结果显示野草莓分株种群在多个尺度上呈现非随机分布格局 ,其中研究了海拔 348m处 d=1( 0 .2 m)尺度的集聚分布格局频率最高 ;与海拔 3484m相比 ,3944m处野草莓分株种群的集聚尺度更大。最后 ,结合克隆植物对环境的生态适应意义进行了讨论。     

Population dynamics of an endangered heathland shrub,Epacris stuartii (Epacridaceae): Recruitment,establishment and survival

The only known population of the endangered shrub Epacris stuartii Stapf was studied from 1994 to 2001 using demographic census techniques. The effects of substrate, a fire and a storm on the emergence and survival of seedlings and the survival of established plants of different sizes were examined using failure‐time analyses and logit‐linear models. Ninety‐five per cent of seedling emergence was delayed until the second post‐fire spring, an unusual response among species with persistent soil seed banks. Mortality of seedlings was extreme compared with larger‐seeded species, but diminished significantly with age. Seedling mortality varied significantly between substrates: 40% of seedlings persisted for more than 5 years in mineral soil, whereas less than 10% lived more than a year on rock and intermediate substrates. However, seedling numbers and local densities were lower on soils than other substrates. Background mortality of established plants was lower on soil and intermediate substrates (0.5% per year) than on rock (3% per year). Small plants may be more susceptible than large plants on rock, but not on soil. Both the fire and the storm resulted in elevated mortality of established plants. The population exhibited a variable response to fire, with plants on rock and intermediate substrates behaving as obligate seeders, whereas plants in soil resprouted. This appears to be the first report of microhabitat variation in fire response at sympatric scales. The effects of the storm were apparently independent of substrate and plant size. The essentially independent disturbance regimes comprising recurring fires and storms are likely to have a profound effect on the long‐term population dynamics of E. stuartii. Over the 7‐year census period, recruitment has failed to compensate for mortality, resulting in a 30% net decline in the population. The demographic census has proved to be crucial in the detection and diagnosis of this decline.     

Impact of river dynamics on the genetic variation of Gypsophila repens (Caryophyllaceae): a comparison of heath forest and more dynamic gravel bank populations along an alpine river

• Alpine rivers are, despite anthropogenic water flow regulation, still often highly dynamic ecosystems. Plant species occurring along these rivers are subject to ecological disturbance, mainly caused by seasonal flooding. Gypsophila repens typically grows at higher altitudes in the Alps, but also occurs at lower altitudes on gravel banks directly along the river and in heath forests at larger distances from the river. Populations on gravel banks are considered non‐permanent and it is assumed that new individuals originate from seed periodically washed down from higher altitudes. Populations in heath forests are, in contrast, permanent and not regularly provided with seeds from higher altitudes through flooding. If the genetic structure of this plant species is strongly affected by gene flow via seed dispersal, then higher levels of genetic diversity in populations but less differentiation among populations on gravel banks than in heath forests can be expected.
• In this study, we analysed genetic diversity within and differentiation among 15 populations of G. repens from gravel banks and heath forests along the alpine River Isar using amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLP).
• Genetic diversity was, as assumed, slightly higher in gravel bank than in heath forest populations, but genetic differentiation was, in contrast to our expectations, comparable among populations in both habitat types.
• Our study provides evidence for increased genetic diversity under conditions of higher ecological disturbance and increased seed dispersal on gravel banks. Similar levels of genetic differentiation among populations in both habitat types can be attributed to the species' long lifetime, a permanent soil seed bank and gene flow by pollinators among different habitats/locations.

     

Summer drought exposure,stand structure,and soil properties jointly control the growth of European beech along a steep precipitation gradient in northern Germany

Increasing exposure to climate warming-related drought and heat threatens forest vitality in many regions on earth, with the trees' vulnerability likely depending on local climatic aridity, recent climate trends, edaphic conditions, and the drought acclimatization and adaptation of populations. Studies exploring tree species' vulnerability to climate change often have a local focus or model the species' entire distribution range, which hampers the separation of climatic and edaphic drivers of drought and heat vulnerability. We compared recent radial growth trends and the sensitivity of growth to drought and heat in central populations of a widespread and naturally dominant tree species in Europe, European beech (Fagus sylvatica), at 30 forest sites across a steep precipitation gradient (500–850 mm year⁻¹) of short length to assess the species' adaptive potential. Size-standardized basal area increment remained more constant during the period of accelerated warming since the early 1980s in populations with >360 mm growing season precipitation (April–September), while growth trends were negative at sites with <360 mm. Climatic drought in June appeared as the most influential climatic factor affecting radial growth, with a stronger effect at drier sites. A decadal decrease in the climatic water balance of the summer was identified as the most important factor leading to growth decline, which is amplified by higher stem densities. Inter-annual growth variability has increased since the early 1980s, and variability is generally higher at drier and sandier sites. Similarly, within-population growth synchrony is higher at sandier sites and has increased with a decrease in the June climatic water balance. Our results caution against predicting the drought vulnerability of trees solely from climate projections, as soil properties emerged as an important modulating factor. We conclude that beech is facing recent growth decline at drier sites in the centre of its distribution range, driven by climate change-related climate aridification.     

Population structure and dynamics of an evergreen shade herb, Ainsliaea apiculata (Asteraceae), with special reference to herbivore effects

The population structure and dynamics of Ainsliaea apiculata, a forest understory evergreen herb widely distributed in Japan, was examined in a Chamaecyparis obtusa forest in Ibaraki Prefecture, central Japan (36°51N, 140°33E; 750 m a.s.l.). The mean population growth rate () calculated from the transition matrices for 4 years was 0.69 per year, predicting that the population size will decrease remarkably. There was a significant positive correlation between the survival of old leaves and the growth of new shoots in the following year. The shoots, especially new leaves, were damaged severely by herbivores (caterpillars of Leioptilus sp.). The survival rate of leaves formed in the previous spring to the next spring was remarkably low (41–54%). The growth of new shoots depended mainly on the reserves contained in old shoots, especially those in old leaves. New shoots of A. apiculata began to develop in spring, even though they were formed in autumn of the previous year. A defoliation experiment also showed that the removal of old shoots at the beginning of the growing season significantly inhibited the growth of new shoots. Damage to old shoots by herbivores severely influenced the growth and population dynamics of A. apiculata.     

Population demographic history of a temperate shrub,Rhododendron weyrichii (Ericaceae), on continental islands of Japan and South Korea

Continental islands provide opportunities for testing the effects of isolation and migration on genetic variation in plant populations. In characteristic of continental islands is that the geographic connections between these islands, which are currently distinguished by seaways, have experienced fluctuations caused by sea‐level changes due to climate oscillations during the Quaternary. Plant populations on the islands have migrated between these islands via the exposed seafloors or been isolated. Here, we examined the demographic history of a temperate shrub, Rhododendron weyrichii, which is distributed in the southwestern parts of the Japanese archipelago and on an island of South Korea, using statistical phylogeographic approaches based on the DNA sequences of two chloroplast and eight nuclear loci in samples analyzed from 18 populations on eight continental islands, and palaeodistribution modeling. Time estimates for four island populations indicate that the durations of vicariance history are different between these populations, and these events have continued since the last glacial or may have predated the last glacial. The constancy or expansion of population sizes on the Japanese islands, and in contrast a bottleneck in population size on the Korean island Jeju, suggests that these islands may have provided different conditions for sustaining populations. The result of palaeodistribution modeling indicates that the longitudinal range of the species as a whole has not changed greatly since the last glacial maximum. These results indicate that exposed seafloors during the glacial period formed both effective and ineffective migration corridors. These findings may shed light on the effects of seafloor exposure on the migration of plants distributed across continental islands.     

Microsatellite analysis of a population crash and bottleneck in the Mauna Kea silversword, Argyroxiphium sandwicense ssp. sandwicense (Asteraceae), and its implications for reintroduction

The Mauna Kea silversword, Argyroxiphium sandwicense ssp. sandwicense, has experienced both a severe population crash associated with an increase in alien ungulate populations on Mauna Kea, and a population bottleneck associated with reintroduction. In this paper, we address the genetic consequences of both demographic events using eight microsatellite loci. The population crash was not accompanied by a significant reduction in number of alleles or heterozygosity. However, the population bottleneck was accompanied by significant reductions in observed number of alleles, effective number of alleles, and expected heterozygosity, though not in observed heterozygosity. The effective size of the population bottleneck was calculated using both observed heterozygosities and allele frequency variances. Both methods corroborated the historical census size of the population bottleneck of at most three individuals. The results suggest that: (i) small populations, even those that result from severe reductions in historical population size and extent, are not necessarily genetically depauperate; and (ii) species reintroduction plans need to be conceived and implemented carefully, with due consideration to the genetic impact of sampling for reintroduction.     

Predicting the effects of climate change on population connectivity and genetic diversity of an imperiled freshwater mussel,Cumberlandia monodonta (Bivalvia: Margaritiferidae), in riverine systems

In the face of global climate change, organisms may respond to temperature increases by shifting their ranges poleward or to higher altitudes. However, the direction of range shifts in riverine systems is less clear. Because rivers are dendritic networks, there is only one dispersal route from any given location to another. Thus, range shifts are only possible if branches are connected by suitable habitat, and stream‐dwelling organisms can disperse through these branches. We used Cumberlandia monodonta (Bivalvia: Unionoida: Margaritiferidae) as a model species to investigate the effects of climate change on population connectivity because a majority of contemporary populations are panmictic. We combined ecological niche models (ENMs) with population genetic simulations to investigate the effects of climate change on population connectivity and genetic diversity of C. monodonta. The ENMs were constructed using bioclimatic and landscape data to project shifts in suitable habitat under future climate scenarios. We then used forward‐time simulations to project potential changes in genetic diversity and population connectivity based on these range shifts. ENM results under current conditions indicated long stretches of highly suitable habitat in rivers where C. monodonta persists; populations in the upper Mississippi River remain connected by suitable habitat that does not impede gene flow. Future climate scenarios projected northward and headwater‐ward range contraction and drastic declines in habitat suitability for most extant populations throughout the Mississippi River Basin. Simulations indicated that climate change would greatly reduce genetic diversity and connectivity across populations. Results suggest that a single, large population of C. monodonta will become further fragmented into smaller populations, each of which will be isolated and begin to differentiate genetically. Because C. monodonta is a widely distributed species and purely aquatic, our results suggest that persistence and connectivity of stream‐dwelling organisms will be significantly altered in response to future climate change.