Breaking the HxNy outbreak

The latest emergence of influenza A (H1N1) virus outbreak demonstrated how swiftly a new strain of flu can evolve and spread around the globe. The A/H1N1 flu has been spreading at unprecedented speed, and further spread within the countries being affected and to other adjacent or far way countries is considered inevitable due to the rapid emigration of infected individuals across the world. In this bioinformation, we discuss the mechanism of evolution of a new HxNy strain and the essential criteria for potentially breaking the outbreak of these extremely harmful and rapidly evolving viral strains in the near future by taking the recent H1N1 pandemic as a classical paradigm.     

Ecological outbreak dynamics and the cusp catastrophe

Many ecological processes exhibit trajectories which can be suitably represented by stable equilibria or smooth limit cycles. However, a third kind of ecological process involves intermittent, abrupt, and drastic changes in densities, here termed outbreak dynamics, which require different modelling frameworks. One such framework, the cusp catastrophe, is used here in a modelling study of a particular outbreak insect, the forest tent caterpillar. This model is then generalized to cover a set of related ecological systems. The particular form of the model for each system depends on whether the major controlling ecological variables are externally imposed, or are incorporated in the model equations. It is concluded that the simple cusp catastrophe is an appropriate metaphor for understanding outbreak dynamics.     

蝗虫的发生与防控

蝗虫暴发引起的灾害是全球重要的生物灾害,可影响到全世界十分之一的人口。自2019年,东部非洲、西亚、南亚多个国家遭遇严重的沙漠蝗虫灾害,这场蝗灾不但对该区域的粮食安全构成严重威胁,而且还有可能引发严重的人道主义危机。为了制定合理的防治方案,实施有效防控,避免大规模蝗灾的发生,需要掌握蝗虫的生物学、生态学、暴发和为害规律、防治策略和技术特点及其进展等。本文介绍了世界各地包括沙漠蝗、飞蝗、澳大利亚疫蝗在内的11种可以引起灾害的重要种类的主要分布、为害和特性,并对国内外蝗虫防治策略、技术进展进行了重点综述。最后,针对目前蝗虫防治存在的问题提出了相应建议。