人类活动与气候变化对洪湖春旱的影响

近年来洪湖地区干旱事件频繁发生,对该地区农业生产与生态环境造成了极大影响。利用1960—2011年气候资料、近30年洪湖水文、土地利用资料,采用湖泊水量平衡方法、统计学等方法,研究分析了人类活动和气候变化对洪湖春季干旱的影响。结果表明:伴随全球气候变化该地区年降水和夏季降水呈增加趋势,而春季降水尤其是春季少雨年的降水量减少趋势明显,其减少速率为12.57 mn/10a,达到了α=0.1显著水平;洪湖5月水位高度依赖春季降水,降水对它贡献率为0.36 m/100mm。近20年来,洪湖周边两县市水产养殖面积增加了7倍,在降水偏少时,农业灌溉需水量20a增加了4.14×10~8m~3以上;水产养殖消耗大量春季水资源,对洪湖5月水位的影响率为-0.158 m/10~4hm~2,达到了0.1的显著性水平。人类活动与气候变化是洪湖春旱增多加重两个重要原因,比较它们的变化量与影响率,人类活动对洪湖春旱的影响更大。为维护洪湖生态功能,减轻干旱影响,必须调整农业结构。     

Seasonal benthic nitrogen cycling in a temperate shelf sea: the Celtic Sea

Spring runoff often comprises the majority of annual discharge and riverine phosphorus (P) export due to sustained high flow, and the magnitude of spring runoff can be a strong predictor of receiving water summer harmful algal bloom severity. Yet the loading of reactive forms of P during this time period remains poorly-characterized in time, space and geochemical partitioning. Here, we explore the hypothesis that riverine dissolved and suspended sediment P loads during spring runoff have a particularly high proportion of potentially reactive species due to unique hydrologic pathways and P association with iron (Fe).The concentration, distribution and temporal dynamics of dissolved P (DP), dissolved and colloidal Fe, and redox sensitive suspended sediment P (RSP) and Fe during spring runoff and summer storms were compared in forested and agricultural catchments of the same watershed. The dominant carrier of RSP was Fe (oxy)hydroxides across land cover and season, but Fe (oxy)hydroxide particles and colloids in agricultural catchments were strongly enriched in RSP and DP during spring runoff and summer storms, particularly at the onset of snowmelt. In 2014, 83% of DP and 74% of RSP were delivered to Missisquoi Bay during spring runoff. Suspended sediment was significantly more redox sensitive than typically input to limnological models, suggesting that the reactivity of this load may be systematically underestimated. Changes in the timing, provenance and severity of spring runoff associated with climate or land cover change will have dramatic impacts on total riverine P loads and their potential reactivity in receiving water ecosystems.     

Extreme drought alters growth and interactions with exotic grasses,but not survival,for a California annual forb

Climate change will not only alter mean conditions, but increase the frequency and intensity of extreme events such as severe droughts. Yet the consequences of extreme drought for plant demography are poorly understood. We compared phenology, demographic rates and effects of competition with exotic grasses for the California annual forb Phacelia distans between a year with slightly below average precipitation (2011–2012) and one in extreme drought (2012–2013). We also contrasted these demographic responses with changes in seedling emergence rates and cover in the annual plant community. Early Phacelia mortality actually fell in the extreme drought year, as low October rainfall shifted germination to cooler conditions in November. Survival from mid December to flowering did not change between years. In contrast to expectations, competition with early-emerging exotic annual grasses did not reduce Phacelia spring survival in 2012–2013. A shorter window for fall germination that reduced priority effects may explain this result. Yet the 2012–2013 growing season ended a month earlier than in 2011–2012, significantly reducing Phacelia size at flowering and inflorescence production. Community seedling emergence and cover changed only weakly between the 2 years. Our results demonstrate the importance of within season precipitation patterns in determining whether a climatically extreme year will lead to extreme ecological outcomes. This work also illustrates how annual plant drought responses depend critically on germination behavior and phenology. An important future question is whether seed banks can sustain native forb population persistence through an extended drought with multiple years of low or failed reproduction.     

Demographic effects of prolonged drought on a nascent introduction of a semi-aquatic snake

Faced with a nascent introduction of a non-native species, conservationists need to quickly determine how a population performs in its new environment. Although correlative models can predict environmental suitability at a coarse scale, they often neglect short-term climatic variability, instead relying on long-term averages. Accurately projecting the fate of any particular introduction requires demographic data on how a population responds to a novel environment. The recent introduction of watersnakes (genus Nerodia) poses a risk to California’s already imperiled aquatic vertebrate fauna. Despite inhabiting a seemingly suitable climate, a non-native Nerodia sipedon population in central California is likely to have been affected by a prolonged extreme drought from 2012 to 2015. We studied the only known population of N. sipedon in California for 3 years from 2013 to 2015, and estimated its abundance and annual survival. Its abundance declined from a peak of 218 (95% Credible Interval 149–313) in August 2013 to 97 (80–119) in July 2015. Annual survival of N. sipedon from 2013 to 2014 (0.23, 0.13–0.39) and from 2014 to 2015 (0.29, 0.18–0.41) was lower than survival estimates reported from native populations. Snake body condition, the abundance of large adult females, and prey availability all declined throughout the study. We conclude that the population of N. sipedon declined from 2013 to 2015, likely due to decreasing habitat and prey availability from the prolonged regional drought. This study highlights the importance of the effect of climatic extremes on the trajectory of introduced populations in a novel environment.     

黄淮海地区干旱变化特征及其对气候变化的响应

为了探究气候变化背景下黄淮海地区的干旱特征,基于黄淮海平原34个气象站点的1961—2012年气象数据,使用相对湿润指数探讨分析了近50年黄淮海地区冬小麦生长季及4个季节干旱的时空变化及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明:(1)在整个分析期内(1961—2011)冬小麦生长季干旱减轻,但是在近20年干旱有了加重的趋势,且干旱加重的趋势是一种突变现象。(2)黄淮海地区1961年以来,春季、冬季以及冬小麦生长季内均表现为不同程度的干旱,干旱频率都达到90%以上,其中春、冬两季最为干旱,3个时段整个黄淮海中北部地区都为高频干旱区域,且4个季节及冬小麦生长季干旱程度与干旱频率的区域分布均表现为由南向北递增的趋势。(3)黄淮海地区的干旱特征对降水、太阳辐射和相对湿度这3个气候要素的变化最为敏感。     

Water quality of Loch Leven: responses to enrichment, restoration and climate change

It is usually assumed that climate change will have negative impacts on water quality and hinder restoration efforts. The long-term monitoring at Loch Leven shows, however, that seasonal changes in temperature and rainfall may have positive and negative impacts on water quality. In response to reductions in external nutrient loading, there have been significant reductions in in-lake phosphorus concentrations. Annual measures of chlorophyll a have, however, shown little response to these reductions. Warmer spring temperatures appear to be having a positive effect on Daphnia densities and this may be the cause of reduced chlorophyll a concentrations in spring and an associated improvement in water clarity in May and June. The clearest climate impact was the negative relationship between summer rainfall and chlorophyll a concentrations. This is highlighted in extreme weather years, with the three wettest summers having very low chlorophyll a concentrations and the driest summers having high concentrations. To predict water quality impacts of future climate change, there is a need for more seasonal predictions from climate models and a greater recognition that water quality is the outcome of seasonal responses in different functional groups of phytoplankton and zooplankton to a range of environmental drivers.     

Future vulnerability mapping based on response to extreme climate events: Dieback thresholds in an endemic California oak

Aim

This study presents a bioclimate modelling approach, using responses to extreme climate events, rather than historical distributional associations, to project future species vulnerability and refugia. We aim to illustrate the compounding effects of groundwater loss and climate on species vulnerability.

Location

California, USA.

Methods

As a case study, we used the 2012–2015 California drought and resulting extensive dieback of blue oak (Quercus douglasii). We used aerial dieback surveys, downscaled climate data and subsurface water change data to develop boosted regression tree models identifying key thresholds associated with dieback throughout the blue oak distribution. We (1) combined observed dieback–climatic threshold relationships with climate futures to anticipate future areas of vulnerability and (2) used satellite‐derived measurements of subsurface water loss in drought/dieback modelling to capture the mediating effect of groundwater on species response to climatic drought.

Results

A model including climate, climate anomalies and subsurface water change explained 46% of the variability in dieback. Precipitation in 2015 and subsurface water change accounted for 62.6% of the modelled probability of dieback. We found an interaction between precipitation and subsurface water in which dieback probability increased with low precipitation and subsurface water loss. The relationship between precipitation and dieback was nonlinear, with 99% of dieback occurring in areas that received <363 mm precipitation. Based on a MIROC_rcp85 future climate scenario, relative to historical conditions, 13% of the blue oak distribution is predicted to experience more frequent years below this precipitation threshold by mid‐century and 81% by end of century.

Main conclusions

As ongoing climate change and extreme events impact ecological processes, the identification of thresholds associated with observed dieback may be combined with climate futures to help identify vulnerable populations and refugia and prioritize climate change‐related conservation efforts.     

Effects of long-term experimental warming on plants and soil microbes in a cool temperate semi-natural grassland in Japan

To clarify the effects of long-term warming on ecosystem matter cycling, we conducted an in situ 7-year experimental warming (2009–2015) using infrared heaters in a cool temperate semi-natural grassland in Japan. We measured plant aboveground biomass, soil total C and N, soil inorganic N (NH₄ ⁺-N and NO₃ ^?-N), and soil microbial biomass for 7 years (2009–2015). We also measured heterotrophic respiration for 2 years (2013–2014) and assessed net N mineralization and nitrification in 2015. We found that warming immediately increased plant aboveground biomass, but this effect ceased in 2013. However, the soil microbial biomass was continuously depressed by warming. Soil inorganic N concentrations in warmed plots substantially increased in the later years of the experiment (2013–2015) and the potential net N mineralization rate was also higher than in the earlier years. In contrast, heterotrophic respiration decreased with warming in 2013–2014. Our observations indicate that long-term warming has a contrasting effect on plants and soil microbes. In addition, the warming could have different effects on subterranean C and N cycling. To enhance the accuracy of estimation of future climate change, it is essential to continuously observe the warming effects on ecosystems and to focus on the change in subterranean C and N cycling.     

Fourteen Annually Repeated Droughts Suppressed Autotrophic Soil Respiration and Resulted in an Ecosystem Change

Predictions of future climate over the next 100 years show that the frequency of long periods of droughts in summer will increase in the Netherlands. This study investigated the effect of 14 annually repeated droughts on soil respiration at a Dutch heathland. Field measurements of total soil respiration (R_S) and microbial respiration (R_H) were modeled to determine annual C losses and to derive root respiration (R_A) C losses. The application of repeated droughts resulted in suppression of the total soil C loss from 392 to 332 g C m^?2 year^?1 in 2010–2011 and from 427 to 358 g C m^?2 year^?1 in 2011–2012. The R_H was the greatest contributor to heathland soil C loss (74–76%) and this was suppressed when directly exposed to drought conditions, although not significantly reduced on an annual basis. Annual R_A was suppressed by 42% (2010–2011) and 45% (2011–2012) under repeated drought, indicating there was a greater effect of the repeated annual drought in roots than in microbes. Field observations of photosynthesis (P_G) showed paradoxical results, with significantly greater ecosystem P_G on the drought treatment than the control treatment. Inclusion of plant activity (P_G) as a variable did not improve the fit of the models used in this study. However, other changes in plant composition and structure, such as increasing moss cover on the drought treatment, were noted to have occurred during the 14 years of annually repeated drought and these long term trends may help explain the effects of climate change (drought) on soil processes.     

Field-scale analysis of miscanthus production indicates climate change may increase the opportunity for water quality improvement in a key Iowa watershed

The Raccoon River Basin is the primary source for drinking water in Iowa's largest city and plays a major role in the Mississippi River Basin's high nutrient exports. Future climate change may have major impacts on the biological, physiological, and agronomic processes imposing a threat to ecosystem services. Efforts to reduce nitrogen (N) loads within this basin have included local litigation and the implementation of the Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy, which suggest incorporating bioenergy crops (i.e., miscanthus) within the current corn–soybean landscape to reach a 41% reduction in nitrate loads. This study focuses on simulating N export for historical and future land use scenarios by using an agroecosystem model (Agro-IBIS) and a hydrology model (THMB) at the 500-m resolution, similar to the scale of agricultural fields. Model simulations are driven by CMIP5 climate data for historical, mid-century, and late-century under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 warming projections. Using recent crop profit analyses for the state of Iowa, profitability maps were generated and nitrogen leaching thresholds were used to determine where miscanthus should replace corn–soybean area to maximize reductions in N pollution. Our results show that miscanthus inclusion on low profit and high N leaching areas can result in a 4% reduction of N loss under current climate conditions and may reduce N loss by 21%–26% under future climate conditions, implying that water quality has the potential continue to improve under future climate conditions when strategically implemented conservation practices are included in future farm management plans.     

Monitoring Climate Sensitivity Shifts in Tree-Rings of Eastern Boreal North America Using Model-Data Comparison

The growth of high-latitude temperature-limited boreal forest ecosystems is projected to become more constrained by soil water availability with continued warming. The purpose of this study was to document ongoing shifts in tree growth sensitivity to the evolving local climate in unmanaged black spruce (Picea mariana (Miller) B.S.P.) forests of eastern boreal North America (49°N–52°N, 58°W–82°W) using a comparative study of field and modeled data. We investigated growth relationships to climate (gridded monthly data) from observed (50 site tree-ring width chronologies) and simulated growth data (stand-level forest growth model) over 1908–2013. No clear strengthening of moisture control over tree growth in recent decades was detected. Despite climate warming, photosynthesis (main driver of the forest growth model) and xylem production (main driver of radial growth) have remained temperature-limited. Analyses revealed, however, a weakening of the influence of growing season temperature on growth during the mid- to late twentieth century in the observed data, particularly in high-latitude (> 51.5°N) mountainous sites. This shift was absent from simulated data, which resulted in clear model-data desynchronization. Thorough investigations revealed that desynchronization was mostly linked to the quality of climate data, with precipitation data being of particular concern. The scarce network of weather stations over eastern boreal North America (> 51.5°N) affects the accuracy of estimated local climate variability and critically limits our ability to detect climate change effects on high-latitude ecosystems, especially at high altitudinal sites. Climate estimates from remote sensing could help address some of these issues in the future.     

Simulation of watershed hydrology and stream water quality under land use and climate change scenarios in Teshio River watershed,northern Japan

Quantitative prediction of environmental impacts of land-use and climate change scenarios in a watershed can serve as a basis for developing sound watershed management schemes. Water quantity and quality are key environmental indicators which are sensitive to various external perturbations. The aim of this study is to evaluate the impacts of land-use and climate changes on water quantity and quality at watershed scale and to understand relationships between hydrologic components and water quality at that scale under different climate and land-use scenarios. We developed an approach for modeling and examining impacts of land-use and climate change scenarios on the water and nutrient cycles. We used an empirical land-use change model (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects, CLUE) and a watershed hydrology and nutrient model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) for the Teshio River watershed in northern Hokkaido, Japan. Predicted future land-use change (from paddy field to farmland) under baseline climate conditions reduced loads of sediment, total nitrogen (N) and total phosphorous (P) from the watershed to the river. This was attributable to higher nutrient uptake by crops and less nutrient mineralization by microbes, reduced nutrient leaching from soil, and lower water yields on farmland. The climate changes (precipitation and temperature) were projected to have greater impact in increasing surface runoff, lateral flow, groundwater discharge and water yield than would land-use change. Surface runoff especially decreased in April and May and increased in March and September with rising temperature. Under the climate change scenarios, the sediment and nutrient loads increased during the snowmelt and rainy seasons, while N and P uptakes by crops increased during the period when fertilizer is normally applied (May through August). The sediment and nutrient loads also increased with increasing winter rainfall because of warming in that season. Organic nutrient mineralization and nutrient leaching increased as well under climate change scenarios. Therefore, we predicted annual water yield, sediment and nutrient loads to increase under climate change scenarios. The sediment and nutrient loads were mainly supplied from agricultural land under land use in each climate change scenario, suggesting that riparian zones and adequate fertilizer management would be a potential mitigation strategy for reducing these negative impacts of land-use and climate changes on water quality. The proposed approach provides a useful source of information for assessing the consequences of hydrology processes and water quality in future land-use and climate change scenarios.     

Hydrologic and water quality impacts of biofuel feedstock production in the Ohio River Basin

This study addresses the uncertainties related to potential changes in land use and management and associated impacts on hydrology and water quality resulting from increased production of biofuel from the conventional and cellulosic feedstock. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to assess the impacts on regional and field scale evapotranspiration, soil moisture content, stream flow, sediment, and nutrient loadings in the Ohio River Basin. The model incorporates spatially and temporally detailed hydrologic, climate and agricultural practice data that are pertinent to simulate biofuel feedstock production, watershed hydrology and water quality. Three future biofuel production scenarios in the region were considered, including a feedstock projection from the DOE Billion‐Ton (BT2) Study, a change in corn rotations to continuous corn, and harvest of 50% corn stover. The impacts were evaluated on the basis of relative changes in hydrology and water quality from historical baseline and future business‐as‐usual conditions of the basin. The overall impact on water quality is an order of magnitude higher than the impact on hydrology. For all the three future scenarios, the sub‐basin results indicated an overall increase in annual evapotranspiration of up to 6%, a decrease in runoff up to 10% and minimal change in soil moisture. The sediment and phosphorous loading at both regional and field levels increased considerably (up to 40–90%) for all the biofuel feedstock scenario considered, while the nitrogen loading increased up to 45% in some regions under the BT2 Study scenario, decreased up to 10% when corn are grown continuously instead of in rotations, and changed minimally when 50% of the stover are harvested. Field level analyses revealed significant variability in hydrology and water quality impacts that can further be used to identify suitable locations for the feedstock productions without causing major impacts on water quantity and quality.     

Effects of Warming and Nitrogen Addition on Plant Photosynthate Partitioning in an Alpine Meadow on the Tibetan Plateau

Quantifying plant carbon (C) allocation among different pools is critical for understanding and predicting how C turnover responds to global climate change in terrestrial ecosystems. A field experiment with increasing warming and nitrogen (N) was established to investigate interactive effects on plant C allocation in alpine meadows. Open-top chambers (OTCs) were used to simulate warming. In OTCs, daytime air and soil temperature at 5 cm depth increased by 2.0 and 1.6 °C, respectively, compared with ambient conditions, but soil moisture at 5 cm depth decreased by 4.95% (v/v) from 2012 to 2014. Warming reduced aboveground biomass by 38, 36, and 43% in 2012, 2013, and 2014, respectively, and increased belowground biomass by 64% and 29% in 2013 and 2014, respectively, and the root-to-shoot ratio was significantly increased. Specifically, warming increased the proportion of plant roots in the deep layers (10–20 cm). Both N addition and its combination with warming substantially enhanced belowground biomass. Pulse-labeling experiments for ¹³C revealed that warming reduced the translocation of assimilated C to shoots by 8.8% (38.7% in warming, and 47.5% in the control [CK]), and increased the allocation to root by 12.2% (55.5% in warming, and 43.3% in CK) after 28 days labeling. However, N addition increased the proportion of assimilated C allocated to shoots by 6.5% (54.0% in N addition, and 47.5% in CK), whereas warming combined with N addition reduced this proportion by 10.9%. A decline in soil water content in the surface layer may be the main cause of plants allocating more newly fixed photosynthate to roots. Therefore, plants promoted root growth to draw water from deeper soil layers (10–20 cm). We concluded that climate warming will change the allocation patterns of plant photosynthates by affecting soil water availability, whereas N addition will increase plant photosynthates aboveground in alpine meadows and thus will significantly affect C turnover under future climate change scenarios.

     

Weather underground: Subsurface hydrologic processes mediate tree vulnerability to extreme climatic drought

Drought extent and severity have increased and are predicted to continue to increase in many parts of the world. Understanding tree vulnerability to drought at both individual and species levels is key to ongoing forest management and preparation for future transitions in community composition. The influence of subsurface hydrologic processes is particularly important in water‐limited ecosystems, and is an under‐studied aspect of tree drought vulnerability. With California's 2013–2016 extraordinary drought as a natural experiment, we studied four co‐occurring woodland tree species, blue oak (Quercus douglasii), valley oak (Quercus lobata), gray pine (Pinus sabiniana), and California juniper (Juniperus californica), examining drought vulnerability as a function of climate, lithology and hydrology using regional aerial dieback surveys and site‐scale field surveys. We found that in addition to climatic drought severity (i.e., rainfall), subsurface processes explained variation in drought vulnerability within and across species at both scales. Regionally for blue oak, severity of dieback was related to the bedrock lithology, with higher mortality on igneous and metamorphic substrates, and to regional reductions in groundwater. At the site scale, access to deep subsurface water, evidenced by stem water stable isotope composition, was related to canopy condition across all species. Along hillslope gradients, channel locations supported similar environments in terms of water stress across a wide climatic gradient, indicating that subsurface hydrology mediates species’ experience of drought, and that areas associated with persistent access to subsurface hydrologic resources may provide important refugia at species’ xeric range edges. Despite this persistent overall influence of the subsurface environment, individual species showed markedly different response patterns. We argue that hydrologic niche segregation can be a useful lens through which to interpret these differences in vulnerability to climatic drought and climate change.     

Vulnerability of riparian ecosystems to elevated CO2 and climate change in arid and semiarid western North America

Riparian ecosystems, already greatly altered by water management, land development, and biological invasion, are being further altered by increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations ([CO₂]) and climate change, particularly in arid and semiarid (dryland) regions. In this literature review, we (1) summarize expected changes in [CO₂], climate, hydrology, and water management in dryland western North America, (2) consider likely effects of those changes on riparian ecosystems, and (3) identify critical knowledge gaps. Temperatures in the region are rising and droughts are becoming more frequent and intense. Warmer temperatures in turn are altering river hydrology: advancing the timing of spring snow melt floods, altering flood magnitudes, and reducing summer and base flows. Direct effects of increased [CO₂] and climate change on riparian ecosystems may be similar to effects in uplands, including increased heat and water stress, altered phenology and species geographic distributions, and disrupted trophic and symbiotic interactions. Indirect effects due to climate‐driven changes in streamflow, however, may exacerbate the direct effects of warming and increase the relative importance of moisture and fluvial disturbance as drivers of riparian ecosystem response to global change. Together, climate change and climate‐driven changes in streamflow are likely to reduce abundance of dominant, native, early‐successional tree species, favor herbaceous species and both drought‐tolerant and late‐successional woody species (including many introduced species), reduce habitat quality for many riparian animals, and slow litter decomposition and nutrient cycling. Climate‐driven changes in human water demand and associated water management may intensify these effects. On some regulated rivers, however, reservoir releases could be managed to protect riparian ecosystem. Immediate research priorities include determining riparian species' environmental requirements and monitoring riparian ecosystems to allow rapid detection and response to undesirable ecological change.     

Spring water deficit and soil conditions matter more than seed origin and summer drought for the establishment of temperate conifers

In anticipation of more severe summer droughts, forestry in temperate Europe is searching for drought-resistant ecotypes of native tree species that might maintain ecosystem services in the future. We investigated how spring precipitation and soil conditions interact with summer drought and affect the establishment of conifer seedlings from different climatic origin. Emergence, establishment and subsequent performance of seedlings originating from autochthonous, Central Alpine, continental Eastern European, and Mediterranean Pinus sylvestris and Picea abies populations were studied in the dry Alpine Rhine valley, Switzerland, at three sites with differing soil water holding capacities and in 3 years with contrasting weather conditions. In addition to this natural inter-annual variation, precipitation was manipulated within sites with throughfall reduction roofs. Seedling establishment and growth were principally affected by the spring weather in the year of emergence. In years with average to positive spring water balance, seedlings grown at the site with the highest water holding capacity had 2–5 times more aboveground biomass than seedlings grown at sites with less favourable soils. Effects of seed origin were marginal and only detectable at the drier sites: contrary to our expectations, seedlings from the Central Alpine Rhone valley, where the climatic spring water deficit is large, outperformed those from the Mediterranean. Consequently, plantation of non-native populations from dryer origin will mitigate the effects of increased summer drought at driest sites only, while the inter-annual variability of spring precipitation will continue to enable temperate conifers to regenerate on a wide range of forest soils independent of seed origin.     

Potential Impacts of Climate Warming on Water Supply Reliability in the Tuolumne and Merced River Basins,California

We present an integrated hydrology/water operations simulation model of the Tuolumne and Merced River Basins, California, using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) platform. The model represents hydrology as well as water operations, which together influence water supplied for agricultural, urban, and environmental uses. The model is developed for impacts assessment using scenarios for climate change and other drivers of water system behavior. In this paper, we describe the model structure, its representation of historical streamflow, agricultural and urban water demands, and water operations. We describe projected impacts of climate change on hydrology and water supply to the major irrigation districts in the area, using uniform 2°C, 4°C, and 6°C increases applied to climate inputs from the calibration period. Consistent with other studies, we find that the timing of hydrology shifts earlier in the water year in response to temperature warming (5–21 days). The integrated agricultural model responds with increased water demands 2°C (1.4–2.0%), 4°C (2.8–3.9%), and 6°C (4.2–5.8%). In this sensitivity analysis, the combination of altered hydrology and increased demands results in decreased reliability of surface water supplied for agricultural purposes, with modeled quantity-based reliability metrics decreasing from a range of 0.84–0.90 under historical conditions to 0.75–0.79 under 6°C warming scenario.     

Quantifying nitrogen leaching from diffuse agricultural and forest sources in a large heterogeneous catchment

Using mass budget and hydrological models, we quantified the contribution of major diffuse nitrogen (N) sources to surface water loading in a large heterogeneous catchment (upper Vltava river, Czech Republic, about 13,000 km²) over the last 52 years. The catchment reflects the typical development in central and eastern European countries, which witnessed socio-economic shifts from a market to a planned economy in the 1950s and back to a market economy in the 1990s. The former shift was accompanied by increasing N inputs to agricultural and forest areas with ranges for the 1950–1980s of 60–160 and 14–30 kg ha^?1 year^?1, respectively, and with intensive draining of waterlogged farmland. The shift in the 1990s resulted in ~40 and ~50 % reduction of N inputs to agricultural areas and forests, respectively, and farmland draining ceased. The N exports from agricultural land (E _AL ) and from forests (E _FO ) varied within 3–45 and 1.6–7.1 kg ha^?1 year^?1, respectively (with maxima in the 1980s). The E _AL and E _FO fluxes exhibited several similar patterns, being dominated by NO₃-N, increasing with N inputs, and having similar inter-annual variability related to hydrology. The N losses from forests were stable (19 % of N input on average), while those from agricultural land increased from ~10 % in the 1960s up to 32 % in the 2000s, due probably to the previous extensive drainage and tillage of waterlogged fields and pastures. These land use changes reduced the water residence time in agricultural land and induced mineralization of soil organic matter. Continuing mineralization of soil organic N pools thus was the most probable reason for the remaining high E _AL fluxes despite a ~40 % reduction in N inputs to agricultural land, while the E _FO fluxes decreased proportionally to the decreasing N deposition during 1990–2010.