Cancer mortality in a population-based cohort of American Indians – The strong heart study

BackgroundCancer mortality among American Indian (AI) people varies widely, but factors associated with cancer mortality are infrequently assessed.MethodsCancer deaths were identified from death certificate data for 3516 participants of the Strong Heart Study, a population-based cohort study of AI adults ages 45–74 years in Arizona, Oklahoma, and North and South Dakota. Cancer mortality was calculated by age, sex and region. Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess independent associations between baseline factors in 1989 and cancer death by 2010.ResultsAfter a median follow-up of 15.3 years, the cancer death rate per 1000 person-years was 6.33 (95 % CI 5.67–7.04). Cancer mortality was highest among men in North/South Dakota (8.18; 95 % CI 6.46–10.23) and lowest among women in Arizona (4.57; 95 % CI 2.87–6.92). Factors independently associated with increased cancer mortality included age, current or former smoking, waist circumference, albuminuria, urinary cadmium, and prior cancer history. Factors associated with decreased cancer mortality included Oklahoma compared to Dakota residence, higher body mass index and total cholesterol. Sex was not associated with cancer mortality. Lung cancer was the leading cause of cancer mortality overall (1.56/1000 person-years), but no lung cancer deaths occurred among Arizona participants. Mortality from unspecified cancer was relatively high (0.48/100 person-years; 95 % CI 0.32−0.71).ConclusionsRegional variation in AI cancer mortality persisted despite adjustment for individual risk factors. Mortality from unspecified cancer was high. Better understanding of regional differences in cancer mortality, and better classification of cancer deaths, will help healthcare programs address cancer in AI communities.     

The fall and rise of US inequities in premature mortality: 1960-2002

Background

Debates exist as to whether, as overall population health improves, the absolute and relative magnitude of income- and race/ethnicity-related health disparities necessarily increase—or derease. We accordingly decided to test the hypothesis that health inequities widen—or shrink—in a context of declining mortality rates, by examining annual US mortality data over a 42 year period.

Methods and Findings

Using US county mortality data from 1960–2002 and county median family income data from the 1960–2000 decennial censuses, we analyzed the rates of premature mortality (deaths among persons under age 65) and infant death (deaths among persons under age 1) by quintiles of county median family income weighted by county population size. Between 1960 and 2002, as US premature mortality and infant death rates declined in all county income quintiles, socioeconomic and racial/ethnic inequities in premature mortality and infant death (both relative and absolute) shrank between 1966 and 1980, especially for US populations of color; thereafter, the relative health inequities widened and the absolute differences barely changed in magnitude. Had all persons experienced the same yearly age-specific premature mortality rates as the white population living in the highest income quintile, between 1960 and 2002, 14% of the white premature deaths and 30% of the premature deaths among populations of color would not have occurred.

Conclusions

The observed trends refute arguments that health inequities inevitably widen—or shrink—as population health improves. Instead, the magnitude of health inequalities can fall or rise; it is our job to understand why.     

Social deprivation and premature mortality: regional comparison across England.

OBJECTIVE--To investigate the pattern and size of the relationship between social deprivation in electoral wards and premature mortality for each health region in England. DESIGN--Ecological study using 1981 census variables and data on mortality for 1981-5. SETTING--14 regional health authorities in England. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Mortality under the age of 65 years from all causes, coronary heart disease, and smoking related diseases in men and women. RESULTS--Increasing deprivation was significantly associated with mortality from all causes, coronary heart disease, and smoking related diseases. The relationship was linear with no apparent threshold. Correlation coefficients were generally greater for deaths from all causes and smoking related diseases and for men compared with women. The slope of the relationship between deprivation and mortality varied among regions. Variations in mortality still existed between regions for equal levels of deprivation. CONCLUSION--Deprivation of an area and premature mortality are strongly linked. The effects of deprivation can be seen throughout the range of affluence and are not limited to the poorest areas. Current targets for reducing coronary heart disease mortality may be achievable if the mortality in poor areas can be reduced to the rates in affluent areas.     

Cancer patterns in Canada.

Cancer is diagnosed in about 70 000 Canadians each year and is the leading cause of the loss of potential years of life before age 75 among women. Life-threatening forms of cancer will develop in at least one of every three Canadian newborns during their lifetimes if current cancer risks are not reduced. Lung and breast cancers are, respectively, the leading causes of premature death due to cancer among men and women. Compared with other countries Canada has low death rates for stomach cancer but high rates for certain smoking-related cancers (those of the lung and of the mouth and throat), leukemia and cancers of the colon, breast and lymphatic tissues. Newfoundland has the highest rates of death from stomach cancer and the lowest rates of death from prostatic cancer, whereas the western provinces have the opposite pattern. The rates of death from lung cancer among men are highest in Quebec, the province with the highest prevalence of smoking. In Canada the overall rates of death from cancer increased by 32% among men from 1951 to 1983. However, among women they declined by 12% from 1951 to 1976 and increased from 1976 to 1983, particularly among those aged 55 to 74. The rising rates of death due to lung cancer were primarily responsible for these increases. Lung cancer will likely displace breast cancer as the leading cancer killer of Canadian women by 1990. Given the relatively low survival rates for cancers caused by smoking and the lack of substantial improvement in rates for the most frequent types of cancer, preventive strategies that include effective measures to reduce tobacco consumption are urgently required.     

10 year follow up study of mortality among users of hostels for homeless people in Copenhagen

Objectives To investigate mortality among users of hostels for homeless people in Copenhagen, and to identify predictors of death such as conditions during upbringing, mental illness, and misuse of alcohol and drugs.Design Register based follow up study.Setting Two hostels for homeless people in Copenhagen, DenmarkParticipants 579 people who stayed in one hostel in Copenhagen in 1991, and a representative sample of 185 people who stayed in the original hostel and one other in Copenhagen.Main outcome measure Cause specific mortality.Results The age and sex standardised mortality ratio for both sexes was 3.8 (95% confidence interval 3.5 to 4.1); 2.8 (2.6 to 3.1) for men and 5.6 (4.3 to 6.9) for women. The age and sex standardised mortality ratio for suicide for both sexes was 6.0 (3.9 to 8.1), for death from natural causes 2.6 (2.3 to 2.9), for unintentional injuries 14.6 (11.4 to 17.8), and for unknown cause of death 62.9 (52.7 to 73.2). Mortality was comparatively higher in the younger age groups. It was also significantly higher among homeless people who had stayed in a hostel more than once and stayed fewer than 11 days, compared with the rest of the study group. Risk factors for early death were premature death of the father and misuse of alcohol and sedatives.Conclusion Homeless people staying in hostels, particularly young women, are more likely to die early than the general population. Other predictors of early death include adverse experiences in childhood, such as death of the father, and misuse of alcohol and sedatives.     

Physiological changes in successive pregnancies and birth‐order effects

Abstract

An analysis of mortality rates documents that the well‐established female advantage in mortality continues to increase. Data from the U.S. census show that the sex differential in mortality has increased from 1.69 in 1963 to 1.82 in 1976. The age groups which show the most pronounced changes are youth (15–24), young adults (25–34), and old persons (75–84). Following Enterline (1961), we assess the major causes of death within each of these age groups in terms of their relative contributions to changing sex ratios. The major factors among young persons, apart from declining maternal mortality, are found to involve violent deaths, especially traffic accidents and suicide. Among old persons, death rates in general have declined, but advances in medical technology appear to have been more beneficial for older women than for older men, supporting the hypothesis of a biological superiority among women. However, death rates for malignant neoplasms have increased for older women as well as older men, suggesting that changing life styles may eventually have an impact on female mortality. The data suggest a need for additional research concerning the increase in violent deaths among young women and the potential increase in cancer deaths among older women.     

Effectiveness of the public health policy for breast cancer screening in Finland: population based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness of screening for breast cancer as a public health policy. DESIGN: Follow up in 1987-92 of Finnish women invited to join the screening programme in 1987-9 and of the control women (balanced by age and matched by municipality of residence), who were not invited to the service screening. SETTING: Finland. SUBJECTS: Of the Finnish women born in 1927-39, 89893 women invited for screening and 68862 controls were followed; 1584 breast cancers were diagnosed. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Rate ratio of deaths from breast cancer among the women invited for screening to deaths among those not invited. RESULTS: There were 385 deaths from breast cancer, of which 127 were among the 1584 incident cases in 1987-92. The rate ratio of death was 0.76 (95% confidence interval 0.53 to 1.09). The effect was larger and significant (0.56; 0.33 to 0.95) among women aged under 56 years at entry. 20 cancers were prevented (one death prevented per 10000 screens). CONCLUSIONS: A breast screening programme can achieve a similar effect on mortality as achieved by the trials for breast cancer screening. However, it may be difficult to justify a screening programme as a public health policy on the basis of the mortality reduction only. Whether to run a screening programme as a public health policy also depends on its effects on the quality of life of the target population and what the resources would be used for if screening was not done. Given all the different dimensions in the effect, mammography based breast screening is probably justifiable as a public health policy.     

Trends in mortality among California physicians after giving up smoking: 1950-79.

A study was conducted to assess how lung cancer and other mortality trends among California physicians had been influenced by the high proportion who had given up smoking since 1950. Several sample surveys indicated that the proportion of California physicians who currently smoked cigarettes had declined dramatically from about 53% in 1950 to about 10% in 1980. During the same period the proportion of other American men who smoked cigarettes had declined only modestly, from about 53% to 38%. Using the 1950 American Medical Directory a cohort of 10 130 California male physicians was established and followed up for mortality till the end of 1979, during which time 5090 died. The information from follow up and death certification was exceptionally good. The standardised mortality ratio for lung cancer among California male physicians relative to American white men declined from 62 in 1950-9 to 30 in 1970-9. The corresponding decline in standardised mortality ratio was from 100 to 63 for other smoking related cancer, from 106 to 71 for ischaemic heart disease, and from 62 to 35 for bronchitis, emphysema, and asthma. The standardised mortality ratio remained relatively constant for other causes of death not strongly related to smoking. The overall ratio declined in all age groups at a rate of about 1% a year. The total death rate among all physicians converged towards the rate among non-smoking physicians. By the end of the study period physicians had a cancer rate and total death rate similar to or less than those among typical United States non-smokers. This "natural experiment" shows that lung cancer became relatively less common on substantial elimination of the primary causal factor, cigarette smoking. Other smoking related diseases also became relatively less common, though factors other than cigarette smoking may have contributed to this change.     

Premature Adult Death in Individuals Born Preterm: A Sibling Comparison in a Prospective Nationwide Follow-Up Study

BackgroundClose to one in ten individuals worldwide is born preterm, and it is important to understand patterns of long-term health and mortality in this group. This study assesses the relationship between gestational age at birth and early adult mortality both in a nationwide population and within sibships. The study adds to existing knowledge by addressing selected causes of death and by assessing the role of genetic and environmental factors shared by siblings.MethodsStudy population was all Norwegian men and women born from 1967 to 1997 followed using nation-wide registry linkage for mortality through 2011 when they were between 15 and 45 years of age. Analyses were performed within maternal sibships to reduce variation in unobserved genetic and environmental factors shared by siblings. Specific outcomes were all-cause mortality and mortality from cardiovascular diseases, cancer and external causes including accidents, suicides and drug abuse/overdoses.ResultsCompared with a sibling born in week 37–41, preterm siblings born before 34 weeks gestation had 50% increased mortality from all causes (adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR) 1.54, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.17, 2.03). The corresponding estimate for the entire population was 1.27 (95% CI 1.09, 1.47). The majority of deaths (65%) were from external causes and the corresponding risk estimates for these deaths were 1.52 (95% CI 1.08, 2.14) in the sibships and 1.20 (95% CI 1.01, 1.43) in the population.ConclusionPreterm birth before week 34 was associated with increased mortality between 15 and 45 years of age. The results suggest that increased premature adult mortality in this group is related to external causes of death and that the increased risks are unlikely to be explained by factors shared by siblings.     

Premature Mortality from Cardiovascular Disease in the Americas – Will the Goal of a Decline of “25% by 2025” be Met?

Background

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the underlying cause 1.6 million deaths per year in the Americas, accounting for 30% of total mortality and 38% of by non-communicable deaths diseases (NCDs). A 25% reduction in premature mortality due four main NCDs was targeted by the 2011 High-level Meeting of the General Assembly on the Prevention and Control of NCDs. While overall CVD mortality fell in the Americas during the past decade, trends in premature CVD mortality during the same period have not been described, particularly in the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean.

Methods

This is a population-based trend-series study based on a total of 6,133,666 deaths to describe the trends and characteristics of premature mortality due to CVD and to estimates of the average annual percentage of change during the period 2000–2010 in the Americas.

Findings

Premature mortality due to CVD in the Americas fell by 21% in the period 2000–2010 with a -2.5% average annual rate of change in the last 5 year—a statistically significant reduction of mortality—. Mortality from ischemic diseases, declined by 25% - 24% among men and 26% among women. Cerebrovascular diseases declined by 27% -26% among men and 28% among women. Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago, the Dominican Republic, Bahamas, and Brazil had CVD premature mortality rates over 200 per 100,000 population, while the average for the Region was 132.7. US and Canada will meet the 25% reduction target before 2025. Mexico, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Dominican Republic, Panama, Guyana, and El Salvador did not significantly reduce premature mortality among men and Guyana, the Dominican Republic, and Panama did not achieve the required annual reduction in women.

Conclusions

Trends in premature mortality due to CVD observed in last decade in the Americas would indicate that if these trends continue, the Region as a whole and a majority of its countries will be able to reach the goal of a 25% relative reduction in premature mortality even before 2025.     

Plasma cholesterol,coronary heart disease,and cancer in the Renfrew and Paisley survey.

The relation between plasma cholesterol concentration and mortality from coronary heart disease, incidence of and mortality from cancer, and all cause mortality was studied in a general population aged 45-64 living in the west of Scotland. Seven thousand men (yielding 653 deaths from coronary heart disease, 630 new cases of cancer, and 463 deaths from cancer) and 8262 women (322 deaths from coronary heart disease, 554 new cases of cancer, and 395 deaths from cancer) were examined initially in 1972-6 and followed up for an average of 12 years. All cause mortality was not related to plasma cholesterol concentration. This was largely a consequence of a positive relation between cholesterol values and mortality from coronary heart disease being balanced by inverse relations between cholesterol and cancer and between cholesterol and other causes of death. These changes were highly significant for coronary heart disease and cancer in men and significant for coronary heart disease and other causes of death in women. The inverse association between cholesterol concentration and cancer in men was strongest for lung cancer, was not merely a function of the age at which a subject died, was present for the incidence of cancer as well as mortality from cancer, and persisted when new cases or deaths occurring within the first four years of follow up were excluded from the analysis.     

Leading Causes of Death among Asian American Subgroups (2003–2011)

Background

Our current understanding of Asian American mortality patterns has been distorted by the historical aggregation of diverse Asian subgroups on death certificates, masking important differences in the leading causes of death across subgroups. In this analysis, we aim to fill an important knowledge gap in Asian American health by reporting leading causes of mortality by disaggregated Asian American subgroups.

Methods and Findings

We examined national mortality records for the six largest Asian subgroups (Asian Indian, Chinese, Filipino, Japanese, Korean, Vietnamese) and non-Hispanic Whites (NHWs) from 2003-2011, and ranked the leading causes of death. We calculated all-cause and cause-specific age-adjusted rates, temporal trends with annual percent changes, and rate ratios by race/ethnicity and sex. Rankings revealed that as an aggregated group, cancer was the leading cause of death for Asian Americans. When disaggregated, there was notable heterogeneity. Among women, cancer was the leading cause of death for every group except Asian Indians. In men, cancer was the leading cause of death among Chinese, Korean, and Vietnamese men, while heart disease was the leading cause of death among Asian Indians, Filipino and Japanese men. The proportion of death due to heart disease for Asian Indian males was nearly double that of cancer (31% vs. 18%). Temporal trends showed increased mortality of cancer and diabetes in Asian Indians and Vietnamese; increased stroke mortality in Asian Indians; increased suicide mortality in Koreans; and increased mortality from Alzheimer’s disease for all racial/ethnic groups from 2003-2011. All-cause rate ratios revealed that overall mortality is lower in Asian Americans compared to NHWs.

Conclusions

Our findings show heterogeneity in the leading causes of death among Asian American subgroups. Additional research should focus on culturally competent and cost-effective approaches to prevent and treat specific diseases among these growing diverse populations.     

Socioeconomic status during childhood and health status in adulthood: the Wrocław growth study

It has been widely observed that socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with frequency of cardiovascular disease. Both men and women of low socioeconomic position have increased risk of cardiovascular disease morbidity and premature death. In this study the relationship between SES in childhood, and health status at the age of 50 years was examined. Socioeconomic status in childhood was measured using objective (father's educational level and number of children in the family) and subjective (self-assessed SES in childhood declared in early adulthood) indicators. Data from the Wroclaw Growth Study were completed when subjects were 50 years old, and information concerning health status was added. The results indicated that the objective, universally used measures of SES in childhood such as father's educational level and size of family did not show any essential relationships with health outcomes in adulthood, both for men and women. By contrast, retrospective, self-assessed SES (as better, average or worse as compared with peers) in childhood was significantly associated with the appearance of cardiovascular disease among women aged 50 years. Women who at the beginning of their adult life declared better socioeconomic condition in childhood were significantly healthier at the age of 50 years (OR=3.43; p=0.02). Moreover, this appeared to be independent of BMI, SES and life-style in adulthood. For men, retrospective self-assessed SES showed no relation to health status at the age of 50 years. The gender differences in the relationships between self-assessed SES in childhood and health status in adulthood are explained by possible selective premature mortality among men from lower childhood SES and/or sex differences in cognitive abilities.     

Utero-vaginal aplasia (Mayer-Rokitansky-Küster-Hauser syndrome) associated with deletions in known DiGeorge or DiGeorge-like loci

Background

Persons affected by neurofibromatosis type 1 (NF1) have a decreased survival, yet information on NF1-associated mortality is limited.

Methods/Aim

The National Mortality Database and individual Multiple-Causes-of-Death records were used to estimate NF1-associated mortality in Italy in the period 1995-2006, to compare the distribution of age at death (as a proxy of survival) to that of the general population and to evaluate the relation between NF1 and other medical conditions by determining whether the distribution of underlying causes of NF1-associated deaths differs from that of general population.

Results

Of the nearly 6.75 million deaths in the study period, 632 had a diagnosis of NF1, yet for nearly three-fourths of them the underlying cause was not coded as neurofibromatosis. The age distribution showed that NF1-associated deaths also occurred among the elderly, though mortality in early ages was high. The mean age for NF1-associated death was approximately 20 years lower than that for the general population. The gender differential may suggest that women are affected by more severe NF1-related complications, or they may simply reflect a greater tendency for NF1 to be reported on the death certificates of young women. Regarding the relation with other medical conditions, we found an excess, as the underlying cause of death, for malignant neoplasm of connective and other soft tissue and brain, but not for other sites. We also found an excess for obstructive chronic bronchitis and musculoskeletal system diseases among elderly persons.

Conclusion

This is the first nationally representative population-based study on NF1-associated mortality in Italy. It stresses the importance of the Multiple-Causes-of-Death Database in providing a more complete picture of mortality for conditions that are frequently not recorded as the underlying cause of death, or to study complex chronic diseases or diseases that have no specific International Classification of Diseases code, such as NF1. It also highlights the usefulness of already available data when a surveillance system is not fully operational.     

Infant and early childhood mortality in the Sine-Saloum region of Senegal

Infant and early childhood mortality in Senegal's Sine-Saloum region was investigated through use o f data from a 1982-83 family health survey. The survey involved interviews with 1894 married women 15-44 years of age living in extended family residential units in rural areas. Given evidence of substantial underreporting of early deaths, at least among children born before 1980, an adjustment factor was applied to the survey data. Infant mortality was estimated to be about 113/1000 live births and mortality before age 5 years was 263/1000. Strong mortality differentials, particularly after infancy, were noted according to the 2 socioeconomic variables included in the analysis: type of house and father's occupation. The probability of dying at ages 1-4 years was 50% higher among children living in traditional homes than among those in modern homes as well as among children whose fathers' were engaged in primary sector occupations (farming, livestock, fishing). Infant mortality showed no sex differential, while mortality at ages 1-4 years was 18% higher among females. Diarrheal and respiratory diseases were the 2 leading causes of death, killing at least 15% of all children by 5 years of age. Tetanus was an important cause of death during infancy, while measles and malaria were significant causes only after the 1st birthday. For all causes of death, the effect of socioeconomic status is higher in early childhood than in infancy, presumably because of the protective effect of breastfeeding. 82% of children who died had fever during their terminal illness, 51% had diarrhea, 39% had a cough, and 14% a rash. At least some mortality in this area might be prevented through treatment of these symptoms. However, calculating the degree to which particular interventions such as oral rehydration for diarrhea would reduce mortality is a complex task, requiring knowledge of replacement mortality, effectiveness of interventions, and the numbers of mothers who would utilize them.     

Aspirin use and chronic diseases: a cohort study of the elderly.

OBJECTIVE--To evaluate the associations between the use of aspirin and the incidences of cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and other chronic diseases. DESIGN--Postal questionnaire survey to elicit details of aspirin use. SETTING--Californian retirement community. SUBJECTS--All 22,781 residents of the community (white, affluent, and well educated) were sent a questionnaire that included questions on medical history and the use of drugs such as analgesics, laxatives, and vitamin supplements. In all 61% responded (13,987, 8881 women and 5106 men; median age 73). They formed the cohort that was followed up for 6 1/2 years using discharge summaries from three hospitals serving the area and death certificates from the health department. Only 13 respondents were lost to follow up but seemed not to have died. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Incidences of cardiovascular diseases, cancers, gastrointestinal bleeding, ulcers, and cataracts were compared in participants who did and did not take aspirin daily. RESULTS--Age adjusted incidences were computed with an internal standard and five age groups. By 1 January 1988 there had been 25 incident cases of kidney cancer among all participants; 341 incident cases of stroke, 253 of acute myocardial infarction, 220 of ischaemic heart disease, and 317 of other heart disease were reported among respondents without a reported history of angina, myocardial infarction, or stroke. The incidence of kidney cancer was raised among those who took aspirin daily compared with those who did not take it, although the increase was significant only in men (relative risks = 6.3, 95% confidence interval 2.2 to 17, for men and 2.1, 0.53 to 8.5, for women). Those who took aspirin daily showed no increased risk of any other cancer, except colon cancer for both sexes combined (relative risk = 1.5, 1.1 to 2.2). The risk of acute myocardial infarction was reduced slightly among regular users of aspirin in men but not women. The risk of ischaemic heart disease was almost doubled in those who took aspirin daily compared with non-users (relative risks = 1.9, 1.1 to 3.1, for men and 1.7, 1.1 to 2.7, for women). Small, non-significant increased risks of stroke were observed in both sexes. CONCLUSION--The daily use of aspirin increased the risk of kidney cancer and ischaemic heart disease.     

Long term effects of hysterectomy on mortality: nested cohort study

Objectives To investigate the long term risk (mean > 20 years) of death from all causes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer in women who had or had not had a hysterectomy.Design Nested cohort study.Setting Royal College of General Practitioners'' oral contraception study.Participants 7410 women (3705 flagged at the NHS central registries for cancer and death who had a hysterectomy during the oral contraception study and 3705 who were flagged but did not have the operation).Main outcome measures Mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer.Results 623 (8.4%) women had died by the end of follow-up (308 in the hysterectomy group and 315 in the non-hysterectomy group). Older women who had had a hysterectomy had a 6% reduced risk of death compared with women of a similar age who did not have the operation (adjusted hazard ratio 0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.75 to 1.18). Compared with young women who did not have a hysterectomy those who were younger at hysterectomy had an adjusted hazard ratio for all cause mortality of 0.82 (0.65 to 1.03). Hysterectomy was not associated with a significantly altered risk of mortality from cardiovascular disease or cancer regardless of age.Conclusion Hysterectomy did not increase the risk of death in the medium to long term.     

Combined Impact of Lifestyle-Related Factors on Total and Cause-Specific Mortality among Chinese Women: Prospective Cohort Study

Background

Although cigarette smoking, excessive alcohol drinking, obesity, and several other well-studied unhealthy lifestyle-related factors each have been linked to the risk of multiple chronic diseases and premature death, little is known about the combined impact on mortality outcomes, in particular among Chinese and other non-Western populations. The objective of this study was to quantify the overall impact of lifestyle-related factors beyond that of active cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption on all-cause and cause-specific mortality in Chinese women.

Methods and Findings

We used data from the Shanghai Women''s Health Study, an ongoing population-based prospective cohort study in China. Participants included 71,243 women aged 40 to 70 years enrolled during 1996–2000 who never smoked or drank alcohol regularly. A healthy lifestyle score was created on the basis of five lifestyle-related factors shown to be independently associated with mortality outcomes (normal weight, lower waist-hip ratio, daily exercise, never exposed to spouse''s smoking, higher daily fruit and vegetable intake). The score ranged from zero (least healthy) to five (most healthy) points. During an average follow-up of 9 years, 2,860 deaths occurred, including 775 from cardiovascular disease (CVD) and 1,351 from cancer. Adjusted hazard ratios for mortality decreased progressively with an increasing number of healthy lifestyle factors. Compared to women with a score of zero, hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for women with four to five factors were 0.57 (0.44–0.74) for total mortality, 0.29 (0.16–0.54) for CVD mortality, and 0.76 (0.54–1.06) for cancer mortality. The inverse association between the healthy lifestyle score and mortality was seen consistently regardless of chronic disease status at baseline. The population attributable risks for not having 4–5 healthy lifestyle factors were 33% for total deaths, 59% for CVD deaths, and 19% for cancer deaths.

Conclusions

In this first study, to our knowledge, to quantify the combined impact of lifestyle-related factors on mortality outcomes in Chinese women, a healthier lifestyle pattern—including being of normal weight, lower central adiposity, participation in physical activity, nonexposure to spousal smoking, and higher fruit and vegetable intake—was associated with reductions in total and cause-specific mortality among lifetime nonsmoking and nondrinking women, supporting the importance of overall lifestyle modification in disease prevention. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Forecasting age-related changes in breast cancer mortality among white and black US women: a functional data approach

Background: The disparity in breast cancer mortality rates among white and black US women is widening, with higher mortality rates among black women. We apply functional time series models on age-specific breast cancer mortality rates for each group of women, and forecast their mortality curves using exponential smoothing state-space models with damping. Materials and Methods: The data were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program of the US [1]. Mortality data were obtained from the National Centre for Health Statistics (NCHS) available on the SEER*Stat database. We use annual unadjusted breast cancer mortality rates from 1969 to 2004 in 5-year age groups (45–49, 50–54, 55–59, 60–64, 65–69, 70–74, 75–79, 80–84). Age-specific mortality curves were obtained using nonparametric smoothing methods. The curves are then decomposed using functional principal components and we fit functional time series models with four basis functions for each population separately. The curves from each population are forecast and prediction intervals are calculated. Results: Twenty-year forecasts indicate an overall decline in future breast cancer mortality rates for both groups of women. This decline appears to be steeper among white women aged 55–73 and black women aged 60–84. For black women under 55 years of age, the forecast rates are relatively stable indicating there is no significant change in future breast cancer mortality rates among young black women in the next 20 years. Conclusion: White women have smooth and consistent patterns in breast cancer mortality rates for all age-groups whereas the mortality rates for black women are much more variable. The projections suggest, for some age groups, black American women may not benefit equally from the overall decline in breast cancer mortality in the United States.