Bayesian relaxed clock estimation of divergence times in foraminifera

Accurate and precise estimation of divergence times during the Neo-Proterozoic is necessary to understand the speciation dynamic of early Eukaryotes. However such deep divergences are difficult to date, as the molecular clock is seriously violated. Recent improvements in Bayesian molecular dating techniques allow the relaxation of the molecular clock hypothesis as well as incorporation of multiple and flexible fossil calibrations. Divergence times can then be estimated even when the evolutionary rate varies among lineages and even when the fossil calibrations involve substantial uncertainties. In this paper, we used a Bayesian method to estimate divergence times in Foraminifera, a group of unicellular eukaryotes, known for their excellent fossil record but also for the high evolutionary rates of their genomes. Based on multigene data we reconstructed the phylogeny of Foraminifera and dated their origin and the major radiation events. Our estimates suggest that Foraminifera emerged during the Cryogenian (650-920 Ma, Neo-Proterozoic), with a mean time around 770 Ma, about 220 Myr before the first appearance of reliable foraminiferal fossils in sediments (545 Ma). Most dates are in agreement with the fossil record, but in general our results suggest earlier origins of foraminiferal orders. We found that the posterior time estimates were robust to specifications of the prior. Our results highlight inter-species variations of evolutionary rates in Foraminifera. Their effect was partially overcome by using the partitioned Bayesian analysis to accommodate rate heterogeneity among data partitions and using the relaxed molecular clock to account for changing evolutionary rates. However, more coding genes appear necessary to obtain more precise estimates of divergence times and to resolve the conflicts between fossil and molecular date estimates.     

Bayesian estimation of species divergence times under a molecular clock using multiple fossil calibrations with soft bounds

We implement a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for estimating species divergence times that uses heterogeneous data from multiple gene loci and accommodates multiple fossil calibration nodes. A birth-death process with species sampling is used to specify a prior for divergence times, which allows easy assessment of the effects of that prior on posterior time estimates. We propose a new approach for specifying calibration points on the phylogeny, which allows the use of arbitrary and flexible statistical distributions to describe uncertainties in fossil dates. In particular, we use soft bounds, so that the probability that the true divergence time is outside the bounds is small but nonzero. A strict molecular clock is assumed in the current implementation, although this assumption may be relaxed. We apply our new algorithm to two data sets concerning divergences of several primate species, to examine the effects of the substitution model and of the prior for divergence times on Bayesian time estimation. We also conduct computer simulation to examine the differences between soft and hard bounds. We demonstrate that divergence time estimation is intrinsically hampered by uncertainties in fossil calibrations, and the error in Bayesian time estimates will not go to zero with increased amounts of sequence data. Our analyses of both real and simulated data demonstrate potentially large differences between divergence time estimates obtained using soft versus hard bounds and a general superiority of soft bounds. Our main findings are as follows. (1) When the fossils are consistent with each other and with the molecular data, and the posterior time estimates are well within the prior bounds, soft and hard bounds produce similar results. (2) When the fossils are in conflict with each other or with the molecules, soft and hard bounds behave very differently; soft bounds allow sequence data to correct poor calibrations, while poor hard bounds are impossible to overcome by any amount of data. (3) Soft bounds eliminate the need for "safe" but unrealistically high upper bounds, which may bias posterior time estimates. (4) Soft bounds allow more reliable assessment of estimation errors, while hard bounds generate misleadingly high precisions when fossils and molecules are in conflict.     

Molecular Clock Calibrations and Metazoan Divergence Dates

It has recently been argued that living metazoans diverged over 800 million years ago, based on evidence from 22 nuclear genes for such a deep divergence between vertebrates and arthropods (Gu 1998). Two ``internal' calibration points were used. However, only one fossil divergence date (the mammal–bird split) was directly used to calibrate the molecular clock. The second calibration point (the primate–rodent split) was based on molecular estimates that were ultimately also calibrated by the same mammal–bird split. However, the first tetrapods that can be assigned with confidence to either the mammal (synapsid) lineage or the bird (diapsid) lineage are approximately 288 million years old, while the first mammals that can be assigned with confidence to either the primate or the rodent lineages are 65 million years old, or 85 million years old if ferungulates are part of the primate lineage and zhelestids are accepted as ferungulate relatives. Recalibration of the protein data using these fossil dates indicates that metazoans diverged between 791 and 528 million years ago, a result broadly consistent with the palaeontological documentation of the ``Cambrian explosion.' The third, ``external' calibration point (the metazoan–fungal divergence) was similarly problematic, since it was based on a controversial molecular study (which in turn used fossil dates including the mammal–bird split); direct use of fossils for this calibration point gives the absurd dating of 455 million years for metazoan divergences. Similar calibration problems affect another recent study (Wang et al. 1999), which proposes divergences for metazoans of 1000 million years or more: recalibrations of their clock again yields much more recent dates, some consistent with a ``Cambrian explosion' scenario. Molecular clock studies have persuasively argued for the imperfection of the fossil record but have rarely acknowledged that their inferences are also directly based on this same record. Received: 26 January 1999 / Accepted: 14 April 1999     

Multiple fossil calibrations,nuclear loci and mitochondrial genomes provide new insight into biogeography and divergence timing for true seals (Phocidae,Pinnipedia)

Aim To better understand the historical biogeography of the true seals, Phocidae, by combining nuclear DNA (nDNA) and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) in a divergence time analysis using multiple fossil calibrations. Location Arctic, Antarctic, Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, Lake Baikal, Caspian Sea. Methods Fifteen nuclear genes totalling 8935 bp plus near‐complete mitochondrial genome sequences were used in a Bayesian divergence time analysis, incorporating eight soft‐bound fossil calibrations across the phylogeny. All species of true seals were included, plus the walrus, three otariids and seven carnivore outgroups. The majority of the nuclear sequences and four phocid mitochondrial genomes (plus three non‐phocid mitochondrial genomes) were newly generated for this study using DNA extracted from tissue samples; other sequences were obtained from GenBank. Results Using multiple nuclear genes and multiple fossil calibrations resulted in most divergence time estimations within Phocidae being much more recent than predicted by other molecular studies incorporating only mtDNA and using a single calibration point. A new phylogenetic hypothesis was recovered for the Antarctic seals. Main conclusions Incorporating multiple nuclear genes and fossil calibrations had a profound effect on the estimated divergence times. Most estimated divergences within Phocinae (Arctic seals) correspond to Arctic oceanic events and all occur within the last 12 Myr, a time when the Arctic and Atlantic oceans were freely exchanging and perennial Arctic sea ice existed, indicating that the Arctic seals may have had a longer association with ice than previously thought. The Monachinae (‘southern’ seals) split from the Phocinae c. 15 Ma on the eastern US coast. Several early trans‐Atlantic dispersals possibly occurred, leaving no living descendants, as divergence estimates suggest that the Monachus (monk seal) species divergences occurred in the western Atlantic c. 6 Ma, with the Mediterranean monk seal ancestor dispersing afterwards. The tribes Lobodontini (Antarctic seals) and Miroungini (elephant seals) are also estimated to have diverged in the eastern Atlantic c. 7 Ma and a single Lobodontini dispersal to Antarctica occurred shortly afterwards. Many of the newly estimated dates are used to infer how extinct lineages/taxa are allied with their living relatives.     

Molecular clocks do not support the Cambrian explosion

The fossil record has long supported the view that most animal phyla originated during a brief period approximately 520 MYA known as the Cambrian explosion. However, molecular data analyses over the past 3 decades have found deeper divergences among animals (approximately 800 to 1,200 MYA), with and without the assumption of a global molecular clock. Recently, two studies have instead reported time estimates apparently consistent with the fossil record. Here, we demonstrate that methodological problems in these studies cast doubt on the accuracy and interpretations of the results obtained. In the study by Peterson et al., young time estimates were obtained because fossil calibrations were used as maximum limits rather than as minimum limits, and not because invertebrate calibrations were used. In the study by Aris-Brosou and Yang, young time estimates were obtained because of problems with rate models and other methods specific to the study, and not because Bayesian methods were used. This also led to many anomalous findings in their study, including a primate-rodent divergence at 320 MYA. With these results aside, molecular clocks continue to support a long period of animal evolution before the Cambrian explosion of fossils.     

Fossil calibration of molecular divergence infers a moderate mutation rate and recent radiations for pinus

Silent mutation rate estimates for Pinus vary 50-fold, ranging from angiosperm-like to among the slowest reported for plants. These differences either reflect extraordinary genomic processes or inconsistent fossil calibration, and they have important consequences for population and biogeographical inferences. Here we estimate mutation rates from 4 Pinus species that represent the major lineages using 11 nuclear and 4 chloroplast loci. Calibration was tested at the divergence of Pinus subgenera with the oldest leaf fossil from subg. Strobus (Eocene; 45 MYA) or a recently published subg. Strobus wood fossil (Cretaceous; 85 MYA). These calibrations place the origin of Pinus 190-102 MYA and give absolute silent rate estimates of 0.70-1.31x10(-9) and 0.22-0.42x10(-9).site-1.year-1 for the nuclear and chloroplast genomes, respectively. These rates are approximately 4- to 20-fold slower than angiosperms, but unlike many previous estimates, they are more consistent with the high per-generation deleterious mutation rates observed in pines. Chronograms from nuclear and chloroplast genomes show that the divergence of subgenera accounts for about half of the time since Pinus diverged from Picea, with subsequent radiations occurring more recently. By extending the sampling to encompass the phylogenetic diversity of Pinus, we predict that most extant subsections diverged during the Miocene. Moreover, subsect. Australes, Ponderosae, and Contortae, containing over 50 extant species, radiated within a 5 Myr time span starting as recently as 18 MYA. An Eocene divergence of pine subgenera (using leaf fossils) does not conflict with fossil-based estimates of the Pinus-Picea split, but a Cretaceous divergence using wood fossils accommodates Oligocene fossils that may represent modern subsections. Because homoplasy and polarity of character states have not been tested for fossil pine assignments, the choice of fossil and calibration node represents a significant source of uncertainty. Based on several lines of evidence (including agreement with ages inferred using calibrations outside of Pinus), we conclude that the 85 MYA calibration at the divergence of pine subgenera provides a reasonable lower bound and that further refinements in age and mutation rate estimates will require a synthetic examination of pine fossil history.     

Integration of Bayesian molecular clock methods and fossil-based soft bounds reveals early Cenozoic origin of African lacertid lizards

Background  

Although current molecular clock methods offer greater flexibility in modelling evolutionary events, calibration of the clock with dates from the fossil record is still problematic for many groups. Here we implement several new approaches in molecular dating to estimate the evolutionary ages of Lacertidae, an Old World family of lizards with a poor fossil record and uncertain phylogeny. Four different models of rate variation are tested in a new program for Bayesian phylogenetic analysis called TreeTime, based on a combination of mitochondrial and nuclear gene sequences. We incorporate paleontological uncertainty into divergence estimates by expressing multiple calibration dates as a range of probabilistic distributions. We also test the reliability of our proposed calibrations by exploring effects of individual priors on posterior estimates.     

Biogeography and genome size evolution of the oldest extant vascular plant genus,Equisetum (Equisetaceae)

Background and AimsExtant plant groups with a long fossil history are key elements in understanding vascular plant evolution. Horsetails (Equisetum, Equisetaceae) have a nearly continuous fossil record dating back to the Carboniferous, but their phylogenetic and biogeographic patterns are still poorly understood. We use here the most extensive phylogenetic analysis to date as a framework to evaluate their age, biogeography and genome size evolution.MethodsDNA sequences of four plastid loci were used to estimate divergence times and investigate the biogeographic history of all extant species of Equisetum. Flow cytometry was used to study genome size evolution against the framework of phylogenetic relationships in Equisetum.Key ResultsOn a well-supported phylogenetic tree including all extant Equisetum species, a molecular clock calibrated with multiple fossils places the node at which the outgroup and Equisetum diverged at 343 Mya (Early Carboniferous), with the first major split among extant species occurring 170 Mya (Middle Jurassic). These dates are older than those reported in some other recent molecular clock studies but are largely in agreement with a timeline established by fossil appearance in the geological record. Representatives of evergreen subgenus Hippochaete have much larger genome sizes than those of deciduous subgenus Equisetum, despite their shared conserved chromosome number. Subgenus Paramochaete has an intermediate genome size and maintains the same number of chromosomes.ConclusionsThe first divergences among extant members of the genus coincided with the break-up of Pangaea and the resulting more humid, warmer climate. Subsequent tectonic activity most likely involved vicariance events that led to species divergences combined with some more recent, long-distance dispersal events. We hypothesize that differences in genome size between subgenera may be related to the number of sperm flagellae.     

Molecular dating and biogeography of the early placental mammal radiation

The timing and phylogenetic hierarchy of early placental mammal divergences was determined based on combined DNA sequence analysis of 18 gene segments (9779 bp) from 64 species. Using rooted and unrooted phylogenies derived from distinct theoretical approaches, strong support for the divergence of four principal clades of eutherian mammals was achieved. Minimum divergence dates of the earliest nodes in the placental mammal phylogeny were estimated with a quartet-based maximum-likelihood method that accommodates rate variation among lineages using conservative fossil calibrations from nine different nodes in the eutherian tree. These minimum estimates resolve the earliest placental mammal divergence nodes at periods between 64 and 104 million years ago, in essentially every case predating the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) boundary. The pattern and timing of these divergences allow a geographic interpretation of the primary branching events in eutherian history, likely originating in the southern supercontinent Gondwanaland coincident with its breakup into Africa and South America 95-105 million years ago. We propose an integrated genomic, paleontological, and biogeographic hypothesis to account for these earliest splits on the placental mammal family tree and address current discrepancies between fossil and molecular evidence.     

Fossil calibrations and molecular divergence time estimates in centrarchid fishes (Teleostei: Centrarchidae)

Molecular clock methods allow biologists to estimate divergence times, which in turn play an important role in comparative studies of many evolutionary processes. It is well known that molecular age estimates can be biased by heterogeneity in rates of molecular evolution, but less attention has been paid to the issue of potentially erroneous fossil calibrations. In this study we estimate the timing of diversification in Centrarchidae, an endemic major lineage of the diverse North American freshwater fish fauna, through a new approach to fossil calibration and molecular evolutionary model selection. Given a completely resolved multi-gene molecular phylogeny and a set of multiple fossil-inferred age estimates, we tested for potentially erroneous fossil calibrations using a recently developed fossil cross-validation. We also used fossil information to guide the selection of the optimal molecular evolutionary model with a new fossil jackknife method in a fossil-based model cross-validation. The centrarchid phylogeny resulted from a mixed-model Bayesian strategy that included 14 separate data partitions sampled from three mtDNA and four nuclear genes. Ten of the 31 interspecific nodes in the centrarchid phylogeny were assigned a minimal age estimate from the centrarchid fossil record. Our analyses identified four fossil dates that were inconsistent with the other fossils, and we removed them from the molecular dating analysis. Using fossil-based model cross-validation to determine the optimal smoothing value in penalized likelihood analysis, and six mutually consistent fossil calibrations, the age of the most recent common ancestor of Centrarchidae was 33.59 million years ago (mya). Penalized likelihood analyses of individual data partitions all converged on a very similar age estimate for this node, indicating that rate heterogeneity among data partitions is not confounding our analyses. These results place the origin of the centrarchid radiation at a time of major faunal turnover as the fossil record indicates that the most diverse lineages of the North American freshwater fish fauna originated at the Eocene-Oligocene boundary, approximately 34 mya. This time coincided with major global climate change from warm to cool temperatures and a signature of elevated lineage extinction and origination in the fossil record across the tree of life. Our analyses demonstrate the utility of fossil cross-validation to critically assess individual fossil calibration points, providing the ability to discriminate between consistent and inconsistent fossil age estimates that are used for calibrating molecular phylogenies.     

Multiple Miocene Melastomataceae dispersal between Madagascar, Africa and India

Melastomataceae sensu stricto (excluding Memecylaceae) comprise some 3000 species in the neotropics, 1000 in Asia, 240 in Africa, and 230 in Madagascar. Previous family-wide morphological and DNA analyses have shown that the Madagascan species belong to at least three unrelated lineages, which were hypothesized to have arrived by trans-oceanic dispersal. An alternative hypothesis posits that the ancestors of Madagascan, as well as Indian, Melastomataceae arrived from Africa in the Late Cretaceous. This study tests these hypotheses in a Bayesian framework, using three combined sequence datasets analysed under a relaxed clock and simultaneously calibrated with fossils, some not previously used. The new fossil calibration comes from a re-dated possibly Middle or Upper Eocene Brazilian fossil of Melastomeae. Tectonic events were also tentatively used as constraints because of concerns that some of the family's fossils are difficult to assign to nodes in the phylogeny. Regardless of how the data were calibrated, the estimated divergence times of Madagascan and Indian lineages were too young for Cretaceous explanations to hold. This was true even of the oldest ages within the 95% credibility interval around each estimate. Madagascar's Melastomeae appear to have arrived from Africa during the Miocene. Medinilla, with some 70 species in Madagascar and two in Africa, too, arrived during the Miocene, but from Asia. Gravesia, with 100 species in Madagascar and four in east and west Africa, also appears to date to the Miocene, but its monophyly has not been tested. The study afforded an opportunity to compare divergence time estimates obtained earlier with strict clocks and single calibrations, with estimates based on relaxed clocks and different multiple calibrations and taxon sampling.     

Bayesian analysis of combined chloroplast loci, using multiple calibrations, supports the recent arrival of Melastomataceae in Africa and Madagascar

A new biogeographic scenario for Melastomataceae (Morley and Dick, American Journal of Botany 90(11) pp. 1638-1645, 2003) accepts an ndhF-based phylogeny for the family by Renner et al. (American Journal of Botany 88(7): 1290-1300, 2001), but rejects those authors' divergence time estimates. Morley and Dick concluded that Gondwanan vicariance, rather than the more recent long dispersal proposed by Renner et al. explains the presence of the family in Africa and Madagascar. To assess the strength of this conclusion, a Bayesian analysis was conducted on three times the amount of sequence data used before (ndhF, rbcL, rpl16; 3100 base pairs [bp], excluding all gaps). The Bayesian approach to divergence time estimation does not rely on a strict molecular clock and employs multiple simultaneous minimal or maximal bounds on node ages. Reliance on northern mid-latitude fossils of Melastomataceae for calibrations was avoided or reduced by using alternative fossil and tectonic calibrations, including all those suggested by Morley and Dick. Results reaffirm the relatively recent spread of melastome lineages among the southern continents and refute the breakup of Gondwana as a plausible explanation for the presence of Dissochaeteae/Sonerileae in Madagascar and Africa and the presence of Melastomeae in Africa and Southeast Asia. Melastomeae appear to have reached Africa around 17-15 million years (my) ago, while Dissochaeteae and Sonerileae apparently reached Madagascar at 17-15 and 20-18 my ago. I also explored the effects of constraining Melastomeae to minimally 76 my old (to have reached Africa by island hopping as postulated by Morley and Dick). This resulted in an estimate for their arrival in Africa of 35 my ago and for Dissochaeteae and Sonerileae in Madagascar of 28 and 33 my ago, still implying long-distance dispersal. The Bayesian 95% credibility ranges around these dates, however, are large. Regardless of the increasing sophistication of molecular estimates of divergence time, Gondwanan scenarios will remain untestable as long as biases in the fossil record can justifiably be invoked to explain away the absence of fossils.     

Flying rocks and flying clocks: disparity in fossil and molecular dates for birds

Major disparities are recognized between molecular divergence dates and fossil ages for critical nodes in the Tree of Life, but broad patterns and underlying drivers remain elusive. We harvested 458 molecular age estimates for the stem and crown divergences of 67 avian clades to explore empirical patterns between these alternate sources of temporal information. These divergence estimates were, on average, over twice the age of the oldest fossil in these clades. Mitochondrial studies yielded older ages than nuclear studies for the vast majority of clades. Unexpectedly, disparity between molecular estimates and the fossil record was higher for divergences within major clades (crown divergences) than divergences between major clades (stem divergences). Comparisons of dates from studies classed by analytical methods revealed few significant differences. Because true divergence ages can never be known with certainty, our study does not answer the question of whether fossil gaps or molecular dating error account for a greater proportion of observed disparity. However, empirical patterns observed here suggest systemic overestimates for shallow nodes in existing molecular divergence dates for birds. We discuss underlying biases that may drive these patterns.     

The age of the angiosperms: a molecular timescale without a clock

The age of the angiosperms has long been of interest to botanists and evolutionary biologists. Many early efforts to date the age of the angiosperms and evolutionary divergences within the angiosperm clade using a molecular clock have yielded age estimates that are grossly inconsistent with the fossil record. We investigated the age of angiosperms using Bayesian relaxed clock (BRC) and penalized likelihood (PL) approaches. Both of these methods allow the incorporation of multiple fossil constraints into the optimization procedure. The BRC method allows a range of values for among-lineage rate of substitution, from a nearly clocklike behavior to a condition in which each branch is allowed an optimal substitution rate, and also accounts for variation in molecular evolution across multiple genes. A topology derived from an analysis of genes from all three plant genomes for 71 taxa was used as a backbone. The effects on age estimates of different genes, single-gene versus concatenated datasets, and the inclusion and assumptions of fossils as age constraints were examined. In addition, the influence of prior distributions on estimates of divergence times was also explored. These results indicate that widely divergent age estimates can result from the different methods (198-139 million years ago), different sources of data (275-122 million years ago), and the inclusion of temporal constraints to topologies. Most dates, however, are between 180-140 million years ago, suggesting a Middle Jurassic-Early Cretaceous origin of flowering plants, predating the oldest unequivocal fossil angiosperms by about 45-5 million years. Nonetheless, these dates are consistent with other recent studies that have used methods that relax the assumption of a strict molecular clock and also agree with the hypothesis that the angiosperms may be somewhat older than the fossil record indicates.     

Initial diversification of living amphibians predated the breakup of Pangaea

The origin and divergence of the three living orders of amphibians (Anura, Caudata, Gymnophiona) and their main lineages are one of the most hotly debated topics in vertebrate evolution. Here, we present a robust molecular phylogeny based on the nuclear RAG1 gene as well as results from a variety of alternative independent molecular clock calibrations. Our analyses suggest that the origin and early divergence of the three living amphibian orders dates back to the Palaeozoic or early Mesozoic, before the breakup of Pangaea, and soon after the divergence from lobe-finned fishes. The resulting new biogeographic scenario, age estimate, and the inferred rapid divergence of the three lissamphibian orders may account for the lack of fossils that represent plausible ancestors or immediate sister taxa of all three orders and the heretofore paradoxical distribution of some amphibian fossil taxa. Furthermore, the ancient and rapid radiation of the three lissamphibian orders likely explains why branch lengths connecting their early nodes are particularly short, thus rendering phylogenetic inference of implicated relationships especially difficult.     

Fossils, molecules, divergence times, and the origin of lissamphibians

A review of the paleontological literature shows that the early dates of appearance of Lissamphibia recently inferred from molecular data do not favor an origin of extant amphibians from temnospondyls, contrary to recent claims. A supertree is assembled using new Mesquite modules that allow extinct taxa to be incorporated into a time-calibrated phylogeny with a user-defined geological time scale. The supertree incorporates 223 extinct species of lissamphibians and has a highly significant stratigraphic fit. Some divergences can even be dated with sufficient precision to serve as calibration points in molecular divergence date analyses. Fourteen combinations of minimal branch length settings and 10 random resolutions for each polytomy give much more recent minimal origination times of lissamphibian taxa than recent studies based on a phylogenetic analyses of molecular sequences. Attempts to replicate recent molecular date estimates show that these estimates depend strongly on the choice of calibration points, on the dating method, and on the chosen model of evolution; for instance, the estimate for the date of the origin of Lissamphibia can lie between 351 and 266 Mya. This range of values is generally compatible with our time-calibrated supertree and indicates that there is no unbridgeable gap between dates obtained using the fossil record and those using molecular evidence, contrary to previous suggestions.     

The impact of fossils and taxon sampling on ancient molecular dating analyses

The number and complexity of molecular dating studies has increased over the past decade. Along with a broadening acceptance of their utility has come significant controversy over the methods and models that are appropriate, as well as the accuracy of the estimates yielded by molecular clock analyses. Radically different age estimates have been published for the same divergences from analyses of different datasets with different fossil constraints obtained with different methods, and the underlying explanation for these differences is often unclear. Here we utilize two previously published datasets to examine the effect of fossil calibrations and taxon sampling on the age estimates for two deep eukaryote divergences in an attempt to discern the relative impact of these factors. Penalized likelihood, non-parametric rate smoothing, and Bayesian methods were utilized to generate age estimates for the origin of the Metazoa from a 7-gene dataset and for the divergence of Eukaryotes from a 129-gene dataset. From these analyses, it is clear that the fossil calibrations chosen and the method for applying constraints to these nodes have a large impact on age estimates, while the degree of taxon sampling within a dataset is less important in terms of the resulting age estimates. Concerns and recommendations for addressing these two factors when initiating a dating analysis are discussed.     

Assessing the quality of molecular divergence time estimates by fossil calibrations and fossil-based model selection

Estimates of species divergence times using DNA sequence data are playing an increasingly important role in studies of evolution, ecology and biogeography. Most work has centred on obtaining appropriate kinds of data and developing optimal estimation procedures, whereas somewhat less attention has focused on the calibration of divergences using fossils. Case studies with multiple fossil calibration points provide important opportunities to examine the divergence time estimation problem in new ways. We discuss two cross-validation procedures that address different aspects of inference in divergence time estimation. 'Fossil cross-validation' is a procedure used to identify the impact of different individual calibrations on overall estimation. This can identify fossils that have an exceptionally large error effect and may warrant further scrutiny. 'Fossil-based model cross-validation' is an entirely different procedure that uses fossils to identify the optimal model of molecular evolution in the context of rate smoothing or other inference methods. Both procedures were applied to two recent studies: an analysis of monocot angiosperms with eight fossil calibrations and an analysis of placental mammals with nine fossil calibrations. In each case, fossil calibrations could be ranked from most to least influential, and in one of the two studies, the fossils provided decisive evidence about the optimal molecular evolutionary model.     

Dating of divergences within the Rattus genus phylogeny using whole mitochondrial genomes

The timing and order of divergences within the genus Rattus have, to date, been quite speculative. In order to address these important issues we sequenced six new whole mitochondrial genomes from wild-caught specimens from four species, Rattus exulans, Rattus praetor, Rattus rattus and Rattus tanezumi. The only rat whole mitochondrial genomes available previously were all from Rattus norvegicus specimens. Our phylogenetic and dating analyses place the deepest divergence within Rattus at approximately 3.5 million years ago (Mya). This divergence separates the New Guinean endemic R. praetor lineage from the Asian lineages. Within the Asian/Island Southeast Asian clade R. norvegicus diverged earliest at approximately 2.9Mya. R. exulans and the ancestor of the sister species R. rattus and R. tanezumi subsequently diverged at approximately 2.2Mya, with R. rattus and R. tanezumi separating as recently as approximately 0.4Mya. Our results give both a better resolved species divergence order and diversification dates within Rattus than previous studies.