Soil types will alter the response of arable agroecosystems to future rainfall patterns

Climate change scenarios for central Europe predict fewer but heavier rains during the vegetation period without substantial changes in the total amount of annual rainfall. To investigate the impact of rainfall patterns derived from regionalised IPCC scenarios on agroecosystems in Austria, we conducted an experiment using 3 m² lysimeters where prognosticated (progn.) rainfall patterns were compared with long‐term current rainfall patterns on three agriculturally important soil types (sandy calcaric phaeozem, gleyic phaeozem and calcic chernozem). Lysimeters were cultivated with field peas (Pisum sativum) according to good farming practice. Prognosticated rainfall patterns decreased crop cover, net primary production (NPP) and crop yields, but increased root production and tended to decrease mycorrhization. Soil types affected the NPP, crop density and yields, weed biomass and composition, as well as the root production with lowest values commonly found in sandy soils, while other soil types showed almost similar effects. Significant interactions between rainfall patterns and soil types were observed for the harvest index (ratio crop yield versus straw), yield per crop plant, weed density and weed community composition. Abundance of the insect pest pea moth (Cydia nigricana) tended to be higher under progn. rainfall, but was unaffected by soil types. These results show that (a) future rainfall patterns will substantially affect various agroecosystem processes and crop production in the studied region, and (b) the influence of different soil types in altering ecosystem responses to climate change should be considered when attempting to scale‐up experimental results derived at the plot level to the landscape level.     

Grain Yield and Water Use Efficiency in Extremely-Late Sown Winter Wheat Cultivars under Two Irrigation Regimes in the North China Plain

Wheat production is threatened by water shortages and groundwater over-draft in the North China Plain (NCP). In recent years, winter wheat has been increasingly sown extremely late in early to mid-November after harvesting cotton or pepper. To improve water use efficiency (WUE) and guide the extremely late sowing practices, a 3-year field experiment was conducted under two irrigation regimes (W1, one-irrigation, 75 mm at jointing; W2, two-irrigation, 75 mm at jointing and 75 mm at anthesis) in 3 cultivars differing in spike size (HS4399, small spike; JM22, medium spike; WM8, large spike). Wheat was sown in early to mid-November at a high seeding rate of 800–850 seeds m⁻². Average yields of 7.42 t ha⁻¹ and WUE of 1.84 kg m⁻³ were achieved with an average seasonal evapotranspiration (ET) of 404 mm. Compared with W2, wheat under W1 did not have yield penalty in 2 of 3 years, and had 7.9% lower seasonal ET and 7.5% higher WUE. The higher WUE and stable yield under W1 was associated with higher 1000-grain weight (TGW) and harvest index (HI). Among the 3 cultivars, JM22 had 5.9%–8.9% higher yield and 4.2%–9.3% higher WUE than WM8 and HS4399. The higher yield in JM22 was attributed mainly to higher HI and TGW due to increased post-anthesis biomass and deeper seasonal soil water extraction. In conclusion, one-irrigation with a medium-sized spike cultivar JM22 could be a useful strategy to maintain yield and high WUE in extremely late-sown winter wheat at a high seeding rate in the NCP.     

生物炭对不同土壤化学性质、小麦和糜子产量的影响

以小麦和糜子为供试作物,利用室外盆栽试验,研究了不同添加量生物炭与矿质肥配施对两种不同土壤化学性质及小麦和糜子产量的影响。生物炭当季用量设5个水平：B0 (0 t/hm2)、B5 (5 t/hm2)、B10 (10 t/hm2)、B15 (15 t/hm2)和B20 (20 t/hm2),氮磷钾肥均作基肥施用。结果表明：1.与对照相比,施用生物炭可以显著增加新积土糜子季土壤pH值,其他处理随生物炭用量的增加虽有增加趋势但差异不显著;显著增加新积土土壤阳离子交换量,增幅为1.5 %—58.2 %;显著增加两种土壤有机碳含量,增幅为31.1 %—272.2 %;2.两种土壤的矿质态氮含量、新积土土壤有效磷和速效钾含量随生物炭用量的增加而显著提高,氮磷钾增幅分别为6.0 %—112.8 %、3.8 %—38.5 %和6.1 %—47.2 %;3.生物炭可显著提高塿土上作物氮吸收量,而作物磷、钾吸收量虽有增加,但差异不显著。生物炭对小麦和糜子的增产效应尚不稳定,在试验最高用量时甚至产生轻微抑制作用。总之,施用生物炭在一定程度上可以改善土壤化学性质,提高土壤有效养分含量,但生物炭对土壤和作物的影响与土壤、作物类型及土壤肥力密切相关。     

Estimating climate change,CO2 and technology development effects on wheat yield in northeast Iran

Wheat is the main food for the majority of Iran’s population. Precise estimation of wheat yield change in future is essential for any possible revision of management strategies. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of climate change, CO₂ concentration, technology development and their integrated effects on wheat production under future climate change. This study was performed under two scenarios of the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES): regional economic (A2) and global environmental (B1). Crop production was projected for three future time periods (2020, 2050 and 2080) in comparison with a baseline year (2005) for Khorasan province located in the northeast of Iran. Four study locations in the study area included Mashhad, Birjand, Bojnourd and Sabzevar. The effect of technology development was calculated by fitting a regression equation between the observed wheat yields against historical years considering yield potential increase and yield gap reduction as technology development. Yield relative increase per unit change of CO₂ concentration (1 ppm^?1) was considered 0.05 % and was used to implement the effect of elevated CO₂. The HadCM3 general circulation model along with the CSM-CERES-Wheat crop model were used to project climate change effects on wheat crop yield. Our results illustrate that, among all the factors considered, technology development provided the highest impact on wheat yield change. Highest wheat yield increase across all locations and time periods was obtained under the A2 scenario. Among study locations, Mashhad showed the highest change in wheat yield. Yield change compared to baseline ranged from ?28 % to 56 % when the integration of all factors was considered across all locations. It seems that achieving higher yield of wheat in future may be expected in northeast Iran assuming stable improvements in production technology.     

Influence of mulching on the pattern of growth and water use by spring wheat and moisture storage on a fine textured soil

Eight tonnes ha^–1 of stubble were used to mulch spring wheat (Triticum aestivum) on a fine textured soil with the aim of controlling both transpiration and soil evaporation during the wet pre-anthesis phase to increase moisture supply during grain filling in the eastern wheatbelt of Western Australia. Mulching reduced leaf area per plant by reducing the culm number; consequently the green area index was reduced. Reduced culm number was associated with low soil temperature which at 50 mm depth averaged 7°C lower under the mulched crop relative to the control crop in mid-season. The smaller canopies of the mulched crop used 15 mm less water than those of the control before anthesis; this difference in water-use was due equally to reduced transpiration and soil evaporation. However, the mulched crop was unable to increase ET during grain filling, a response associated with the persistence of low soil temperature for most of the growth period. Hence, total ET for the season was significantly lower (18 mm) under the mulched crop than the control crop. At harvest, mulching did not have significant effects on total above-ground dry matter and grain yields, but it increased water use efficiency for grain yield by 18%, grain weight by almost 17% and available moisture in both uncropped and cropped plots by an average of 43 mm.To determine whether there was any residual effects of soil treatment on moisture storage during the summer fallow period, soil moisture was monitored both in cropped plots and uncropped plots, that were either mulched or unmulched during the growing season, from harvest in October 1988 until next planting in June 1989. Available moisture at next planting was correlated with moisture storage at harvest despite the differences in run-off, soil evaporation and fallowing efficiency (increase in moisture storage as a percentage of rainfall) between treatments during fallowing. Therefore, the mulched treatments had more moisture available (30 mm), mostly as a result of less water use during cropping in the previous growing season, than the unmulched treatment.The study shows that mulching may be used to restrain both transpiration and soil evaporation early in the season to increase availability of soil moisture during grain filling. Secondly, mulching during the previous growing season had little effect on soil moisture during the summer fallow period, however, the moisture saved by mulching during cropping was conserved for the following season. These results indicate the importance of evaluating mulching of winter crops in terms of crop yield in the subsequent growing season as well as in the current season in which the soil was treated.Abbreviations D through drainage - DAS days after sowing of the crop on 31 May 1988 - DM dry matter produced in the above-ground portion of the crop (kg ha^–1) - E₀ evaporation from Class A pan (mm) - E_s evaporation from uncropped soil (mm) - E_sc evaporation from soil beneath the wheat canopy (mm) - ET evapotranspiration (mm) - FE fallowing efficiency (gain in soil moisture storage/rainfall) - GAI green area index (area of green vegetation per unit land area) - GWUE water-use efficiency for grain production (grain yield/total ET, kg ha^–1mm^–1) - K extinction coefficient (see equation 1) - RO run-off of moisture from soil surface during/following rainfall (mm) - SM available soil moisture (mm) at harvest (SMh) or at planting (SMp) - WUE water-use efficiency for total above-ground dry matter yield (see GWUE)     

A study of the persistence of warfarin on wheat bait used for the control of grey squirrels (Sciurus carolinensis)

Wheat was treated with ¹⁴C-warfarin sodium (0–02%, w/v. a.i.) using the recommended method for preparing bait for the control of grey squirrels (Sciurus carolinesis L.). The persistence of this anticoagulant on sterilised grain was determined by monitoring the rate of change of radioactivity in five different treatments. The time taken for the initial concentration of warfarin to decrease by half in the samples buried in three forests with different soil types varied between 9 and 60 days, and appeared to be correlated with the soil conditions and rainfall. Wheat kept in a hopper exposed to the weather showed no loss of warfarin during the 12 month study period, although warfarin was lost from a pile of bait left exposed on the soil surface. A sixth radioactive treatment involved normal wheat (as purchased from a merchant) since most squirrel control work is done with unsterilised wheat. This showed that during the summer months when squirrel control is permitted the buried unsterilised wheat germinated, but there was no detectable radioactivity in the shoots. Warfarin was lost from both sterilised and unsterilised grain at similar rates when buried in the same forest.     

Photosynthesis,root respiration,and grain yield of spring wheat in response to surface soil drying

The aims of this research were to test the influence of surface soil drying on photosynthesis, root respiration and grain yield of spring wheat (Triticum aestivum), and to evaluate the relationship between root respiration and grain yield. Wheat plants were grown in PVC tubes 120 cm in length and 10 cm in diameter. Three water regimes were employed: (a) all soil layers were irrigated close to field water capacity (CK); (b) upper soil layers (0–40 cm from top) drying (UD); (c) lower soil layer (80–120 cm from top) wet (LW). The results showed that although upper drying treatment maintained the highest root biomass, root respiration and photosynthesis rates at anthesis, the root respiration of the former was significantly (P < 0.05) lower than the latter at the jointing stage. There were no differences in water use efficiency or harvest index between plants from the upper drying and well-watered treatment. However, the grain weight for plants in the upper drying treatment was significantly (P< 0.05) higher than that of in well-watered control. The results suggest that reduced root respiration rate and the amount of photosynthates utilized by root respiration in early season growth may also have contributed to improve crop production under soil drying. Reduced root activity and root respiration rate, in the early growth stage, not only increased the photosynthate use efficiency (root respiration rate: photosynthesis ratio), but also grain yield. Rooting into a deeper wet soil profile before grain filling was crucial for spring wheat to achieve a successful seedling establishment and high grain yield.     

Analysis of water- and nitrogen-use efficiency of wheat in a Mediterranean climate

Water-use efficiency (WUE [g grain yield m^–2 mm^–1 ET]) and nitrogen-use efficiency (NUE [ g grain yield g^–1 N_applied]) are important measures that can affect the productivity of crops in different environmental systems. However, measurement and interpretation of WUE and NUE in the field are often hampered by the high degree of complexity of these systems due to season-to-season variability in rainfall, the variation in crop responses to soil types and to agronomic management. To be able to guide agronomic practice, experimentally-derived measurements of WUE and NUE need to be extrapolated across time and space through appropriate modelling. To illustrate this approach, the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM), which has been rigorously tested for wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in a Mediterranean environment, was used to estimate and analyse the WUE and NUE of wheat crops in the Mediterranean-climatic region of the central Western Australian agricultural zone. The APSIM model was run for three locations (average annual rainfall of 461 mm [high rainfall zone], 386 mm [medium] and 310 mm [low]) and two soil types that had contrasting plant-available water-holding capacities in the rooting zone (sand: 55 mm, clay soil: 109 mm). Simulations were carried out with historical weather records (82–87 years) assuming current crop management and cultivars. The modelling analyses highlighted the inherently high degree of seasonal variability in yield, WUE and NUE of wheat, depending on soil type, N fertiliser input, rainfall amount and, in particular, rainfall distribution. The clay soil tended to be more productive in terms of grain yield, WUE and NUE in the high and medium rainfall zones, but less productive in most years in the low rainfall zone. The sandy soil was less productive in the high rainfall zone due to the high nitrate leaching potential of this soil type, but more productive than the clay in the low rainfall zone due to poorer pre-anthesis growth and less water use, less water loss by soil evaporation and relatively more water use in the post-anthesis phase. When a wheat crop was sown early on clay soil in the low rainfall zone, it yielded as high as in the other rainfall zones in seasons when rainfall was above average or there was a good store of water in the soil prior to sowing. The simulations confirmed findings from a limited number of field experiments and extended these findings both qualitatively and quantitatively across soil types, rainfall regions and crop management options. Furthermore, by using long-term historical weather records, the simulations extended the findings across the wide range of climatic scenarios experienced in mediterranean-climatic regions.     

Effects of waterlogging and drought on winter wheat and winter barley grown on a clay and a sandy loam soil

Summary The effects of winter waterlogging and a subsequent drought on the growth of winter barley and winter wheat have been examined. We used lysimeters containing soil monoliths with facilities to control the water table and a mobile shelter to control rainfall. Winter wheat was grown on a clay and on a sandy loam, but winter barley only on the clay soil. Lysimeters were either freely-drained during the winter or waterlogged with the water table 10 cm below the soil surface from 2 December until 31 March (that could occur by rainfall with a return period of 2 to 3 years). The lysimeters then were either irrigated so that the soil moisture deficit did not exceed 84 mm, or subjected to drought by limiting rainfall (equivalent to a 1 in 10 dry year in the driest area of England) so that the deficits reached maximum values of 150 mm in the clay and 159 mm in the sandy loam by harvest.Winter waterlogging restricted tillering and restricted the number of ears for all crops; grain yield of the winter barley was decreased by 219 g/m² (30%), and that of winter wheat by 170 g/m² (24%) and 153 g/m² (21% on the clay and sandy loam respectively.The drought treatment reduced the straw weight of winter barley by 75 g/m² (12%) but did not significantly depress the grain yield. For winter wheat on the clay, where the soil was freely-drained during the winter, drought depressed total shoot weight by 344 g/m² (17%) and grain weight by 137 g/m² (17%), but after winter waterlogging, drought did not further depress total or grain weight. In contrast, the winter wheat on the sandy loam was not significantly affected by drought.From these results, which are discussed in relation to other experiments in the United Kingdom, it seems that winter waterlogging is likely to cause more variation in the yield of winter barley and winter wheat than drought.     

High night temperatures during grain number determination reduce wheat and barley grain yield: a field study

Warm nights are a widespread predicted feature of climate change. This study investigated the impact of high night temperatures during the critical period for grain yield determination in wheat and barley crops under field conditions, assessing the effects on development, growth and partitioning crop‐level processes driving grain number per unit area (GN). Experiments combined: (i) two contrasting radiation and temperature environments: late sowing in 2011 and early sowing in 2013, (ii) two well‐adapted crops with similar phenology: bread wheat and two‐row malting barley and (iii) two temperature regimes: ambient and high night temperatures. The night temperature increase (ca. 3.9 °C in both crops and growing seasons) was achieved using purpose‐built heating chambers placed on the crop at 19:000 hours and removed at 7:00 hours every day from the third detectable stem node to 10 days post‐flowering. Across growing seasons and crops, the average minimum temperature during the critical period ranged from 11.2 to 17.2 °C. Wheat and barley grain yield were similarly reduced under warm nights (ca. 7% °C^?1), due to GN reductions (ca. 6% °C^?1) linked to a lower number of spikes per m². An accelerated development under high night temperatures led to a shorter critical period duration, reducing solar radiation capture with negative consequences for biomass production, GN and therefore, grain yield. The information generated could be used as a starting point to design management and/or breeding strategies to improve crop adaptation facing climate change.     

The effect of addition of different amounts and types of organic materials on soil physical properties and yield of wheat

A field experiment was conducted to investigate the influences of 0, 5, 10, 15 Mg ha^–1 of wheat (Triticum aestivum) straw, composted sugarcane bagasse residue and farmyard manure on soil physical properties and yield of winter wheat. The experimental design was a split plot with four replicates. The considered physical properties, 1 year after organic matter addition, included aggregate stability, infiltration rate, water retention curve and dry bulk density. Wheat yield and chemical characteristics of wheat grains were measured. Application of organic materials significantly increased wheat yield and increased aggregate stability, infiltration rate, water retained at less than –100 kPa, and decreased soil bulk density. The effectiveness of different organic materials, farmyard manure, composted bagasse and wheat straw, on improving the soil physical properties was similar. Wheat grain and stubble yield progressively increased as the rate of the organic materials increased. The effectiveness of composted bagasse, farmyard manure and wheat straw on improving wheat grain yield was 22, 14 and 3%, and wheat stubble yield was 26, 17 and 4% over the control.     

Sustainable limits to crop residue harvest for bioenergy: maintaining soil carbon in Australia's agricultural lands

The use of crop residues for bioenergy production needs to be carefully assessed because of the potential negative impact on the level of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. The impact varies with environmental conditions and crop management practices and needs to be considered when harvesting the residue for bioenergy productions. Here, we defined the sustainable harvest limits as the maximum rates that do not diminish SOC and quantified sustainable harvest limits for wheat residue across Australia's agricultural lands. We divided the study area into 9432 climate‐soil (CS) units and simulated the dynamics of SOC in a continuous wheat cropping system over 122 years (1889 – 2010) using the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM). We simulated management practices including six fertilization rates (0, 25, 50, 75, 100, and 200 kg N ha^?1) and five residue harvest rates (0, 25, 50, 75, and 100%). We mapped the sustainable limits for each fertilization rate and assessed the effects of fertilization and three key environmental variables – initial SOC, temperature, and precipitation – on sustainable residue harvest rates. We found that, with up to 75 kg N ha^?1 fertilization, up to 75% and 50% of crop residue could be sustainably harvested in south‐western and south‐eastern Australia, respectively. Higher fertilization rates achieved little further increase in sustainable residue harvest rates. Sustainable residue harvest rates were principally determined by climate and soil conditions, especially the initial SOC content and temperature. We conclude that environmental conditions and management practices should be considered to guide the harvest of crop residue for bioenergy production and thereby reduce greenhouse gas emissions during the life cycle of bioenergy production.     

轮作及绿肥不同利用方式对作物产量和土壤肥力的影响

通过4年田间定位试验比较了3种轮作及相应绿肥不同利用方式对作物产量和土壤性质的影响.轮作方式包括夏休闲-冬小麦（对照）、豆类绿肥-冬小麦和豆类绿肥-春玉米-冬小麦.豆类绿肥-冬小麦包括3种绿肥利用方式：提前覆盖、提前翻压和播前翻压;豆类绿肥-春玉米-冬小麦也包括3种绿肥利用方式：豆类茎秆覆盖、茎秆翻压和茎秆移出田间.结果表明：对于豆类绿肥-冬小麦轮作,绿肥消耗了更多小麦播前土壤水,使小麦产量不稳定;麦收后0～200 cm土层硝态氮储量显著高于另外两种轮作,有更高的淋失风险;该轮作方式下提前覆盖处理0～20 cm土层土壤有机碳(SOC)含量和有机碳储量(SSOC)最高.对于豆类绿肥-春玉米-冬小麦轮作,小麦播前土壤储水量显著高于豆类绿肥-冬小麦,小麦产量更稳定;麦收后0～200 cm土层硝态氮储量显著低于豆类绿肥-冬小麦轮作,淋失风险较低;该轮作方式下茎杆覆盖处理0～20 cm土层土壤SOC含量显著高于茎杆移出处理,且SSOC相对于试验初始也有所增加.可见,豆类绿肥-春玉米-冬小麦轮作体系中豆类收获籽粒后茎杆地表覆盖方式,在提高小麦播前土壤储水量、稳定产量、培肥土壤和降低0～200 cm土层土壤硝态氮残留量上表现较好,是具有类似气候地区的合理种植制度.
     

Climatic sensitivity of species’ vegetative and reproductive phenology in a Hawaiian montane wet forest

Understanding how tropical tree phenology (i.e., the timing and amount of seed and leaf production) responds to climate is vital for predicting how climate change may alter ecological functioning of tropical forests. We examined the effects of temperature, rainfall, and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) on seed phenology of four dominant species and community-level leaf phenology in a montane wet forest on the island of Hawaiʻi using monthly data collected over ~ 6 years. We expected that species phenologies would be better explained by variation in temperature and PAR than rainfall because rainfall at this site is not limiting. The best-fit model for all four species included temperature, rainfall, and PAR. For three species, including two foundational species of Hawaiian forests (Acacia koa and Metrosideros polymorpha), seed production declined with increasing maximum temperatures and increased with rainfall. Relationships with PAR were the most variable across all four species. Community-level leaf litterfall decreased with minimum temperatures, increased with rainfall, and showed a peak at PAR of ~ 400 μmol/m²s⁻¹. There was considerable variation in monthly seed and leaf production not explained by climatic factors, and there was some evidence for a mediating effect of daylength. Thus, the impact of future climate change on this forest will depend on how climate change interacts with other factors such as daylength, biotic, and/or evolutionary constraints. Our results nonetheless provide insight into how climate change may affect different species in unique ways with potential consequences for shifts in species distributions and community composition.     

A reduced‐tillering trait shows small but important yield gains in dryland wheat production

Reducing the number of tillers per plant using a t iller in hibition (tin) gene has been considered as an important trait for wheat production in dryland environments. We used a spatial analysis approach with a daily time‐step coupled radiation and transpiration efficiency model to simulate the impact of the reduced‐tillering trait on wheat yield under different climate change scenarios across Australia's arable land. Our results show a small but consistent yield advantage of the reduced‐tillering trait in the most water‐limited environments both under current and likely future conditions. Our climate scenarios show that whilst elevated [CO₂] (e[CO₂]) alone might limit the area where the reduced‐tillering trait is advantageous, the most likely climate scenario of e[CO₂] combined with increased temperature and reduced rainfall consistently increased the area where restricted tillering has an advantage. Whilst long‐term average yield advantages were small (ranged from 31 to 51 kg ha^?1 year^?1), across large dryland areas the value is large (potential cost‐benefits ranged from Australian dollar 23 to 60 MIL/year). It seems therefore worthwhile to further explore this reduced‐tillering trait in relation to a range of different environments and climates, because its benefits are likely to grow in future dry environments where wheat is grown around the world.     

Crop nitrogen use and soil mineral nitrogen accumulation under different crop combinations and patterns of strip intercropping in northwest China

Increasing crop nitrogen use efficiency while also simultaneously decreasing nitrogen accumulation in the soil would be key steps in controlling nitrogen pollution from agricultural systems. Long-term field experiments were started in 2003 to study the effects of intercropping on crop N use and soil mineral N accumulation in wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv 2014)/maize (Zea mays L. cv Shendan16), wheat/faba bean (Vicia faba L. cv Lincan No. 5) and maize/faba bean intercropping and monocropping systems. Monocropping was compared with two types of strip intercropping: continuous intercropping (two crops intercropped continuously on the same strips of land every year) and rotational intercropping (two crops grown adjacently and rotated to the other crop??s strip every year). Maize/faba bean intercropping had greater crop N uptake than did wheat/faba bean or wheat/maize. Wheat/maize accumulated more mineral N in the top 140 cm of the soil profile during the co-growth stage from maize emergence to maturity of wheat or faba bean. Continuously intercropped maize substantially decreased soil mineral N accumulation under wheat and faba bean rows (60?C100 cm soil depth) at maize harvest. Soil mineral N accumulation under wheat rows increased with rotational intercropping with faba bean. Rotational intercropping may potentially alleviate the adverse effects of wheat on N use by other crops and increase the nitrogen harvest index of wheat, maize and faba bean. Intercropping using species with different maturity dates may be more effective in increasing crop N use efficiency and decreasing soil mineral N accumulation.     

Can Impacts of Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptation Strategies Be Accurately Quantified if Crop Models Are Annually Re-Initialized?

Estimates of climate change impacts on global food production are generally based on statistical or process-based models. Process-based models can provide robust predictions of agricultural yield responses to changing climate and management. However, applications of these models often suffer from bias due to the common practice of re-initializing soil conditions to the same state for each year of the forecast period. If simulations neglect to include year-to-year changes in initial soil conditions and water content related to agronomic management, adaptation and mitigation strategies designed to maintain stable yields under climate change cannot be properly evaluated. We apply a process-based crop system model that avoids re-initialization bias to demonstrate the importance of simulating both year-to-year and cumulative changes in pre-season soil carbon, nutrient, and water availability. Results are contrasted with simulations using annual re-initialization, and differences are striking. We then demonstrate the potential for the most likely adaptation strategy to offset climate change impacts on yields using continuous simulations through the end of the 21^st century. Simulations that annually re-initialize pre-season soil carbon and water contents introduce an inappropriate yield bias that obscures the potential for agricultural management to ameliorate the deleterious effects of rising temperatures and greater rainfall variability.     

Seasonal accumulation and partitioning of nitrogen by lentil

Although wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is the dominant crop of the semi-arid plains of Canada and the western United States, lentil (Lens culinaris Medik.) has become an important alternative crop. Sources and seasonal accumulation of N must be understood in order to identify parameters that can lead to increased N₂-fixing activity and yield. Inoculated lentil was grown in a sandy-loam soil at an irrigated site in Saskatchewan, Canada. Wheat was used as the reference crop to estimate N₂ fixation by the A-value approach. Lentil and wheat received 10 and 100 kg N ha⁻¹ of ammonium nitrate, respectively. Crops were harvested six times during the growing season and plant components analyzed. During the first 71 days after planting the wheat had a higher daily dry matter and N accumulation compared to lentil. However, during the latter part of the growing season, daily dry matter and N accumulation were greater for lentil. The maximum total N accumulation for lentil at maturity was 149 kg ha⁻¹. In contrast, wheat had a maximum N accumulation of 98 kg ha⁻¹ in the Feekes 11.1 stage, or 86 days after planting. The maximum daily rates of N accumulation were 3.82 kg N ha⁻¹ day⁻¹ for lentil and 2.21 kg N ha⁻¹ day⁻¹ for wheat. The percentage of N derived from N₂ fixation (% Ndfa) ranged from 0 at the first harvest to 92 % at final harvest. Generative plant components had higher values for % Ndfa than the vegetative components which indicates that N in the reproductive plant parts was derived largely from current N₂ fixation and lentil continued to fix N until the end of the pod fill stage. At final harvest, lentil had derived 129 kg N ha⁻¹ from N₂ fixation with maximum N₂-fixing activity (4.4 kg N ha⁻¹ day⁻¹) occurring during the early stages of pod fill. Higher maximum rates of N₂-fixing activity than net N accumulation (3.82 kg N ha⁻¹ day⁻¹) may have been caused by N losses like volatilization. In addition, lentil provided a net N contribution to the soil of 59 kg ha⁻¹ following the removal of the grain.     

Long-Term Monitoring of Rainfed Wheat Yield and Soil Water at the Loess Plateau Reveals Low Water Use Efficiency

Increasing crop yield and water use efficiency (WUE) in dryland farming requires a quantitative understanding of relationships between crop yield and the water balance over many years. Here, we report on a long-term dryland monitoring site at the Loess Plateau, Shanxi, China, where winter wheat was grown for 30 consecutive years and soil water content (0–200 cm) was measured every 10 days. The monitoring data were used to calibrate the AquaCrop model and then to analyse the components of the water balance. There was a strong positive relationship between total available water and mean cereal yield. However, only one-third of the available water was actually used by the winter wheat for crop transpiration. The remaining two-thirds were lost by soil evaporation, of which 40 and 60% was lost during the growing and fallow seasons, respectively. Wheat yields ranged from 0.6 to 3.9 ton/ha and WUE from 0.3 to 0.9 kg/m³. Results of model experiments suggest that minimizing soil evaporation via straw mulch or plastic film covers could potentially double wheat yields and WUE. We conclude that the relatively low wheat yields and low WUE were mainly related to (i) limited rainfall, (ii) low soil water storage during fallow season due to large soil evaporation, and (iii) poor synchronisation of the wheat growing season to the rain season. The model experiments suggest significant potential for increased yields and WUE.     

Linkages between common wheat yields and climate in Morocco (1982–2008)

In Morocco, wheat production shows a high inter-annual variability due to uncertain rainfall. In view of the importance of this resource to the country’s economy, it is important to gain a better understanding of the natural large-scale climate oscillation governing this variability. In this study, we analyzed de-trended (1) time series of common wheat yields (1983–2008) from 11 agricultural provinces that account for 80 % of national wheat production; (2) monthly rainfall and 10-day temperature from ten meteorological stations; (3) 10-day normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from the AVHRR sensor; (4) monthly atmospheric climate indices [North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Scandinavian Pattern (SCA)] and monthly 500 hPa geopotentials fields; and (5) monthly sea surface temperature (SST) fields and indices (NIÑO3, Tropical North Atlantic and Tropical South Atlantic). The relationship between rainfall and temperature during tillering in early winter and grain filling in early spring and wheat yields already observed at the plot scale was also found to be significant at the provincial scale. The linkages between wheat yields and large scale climate have been analyzed for the first time over Morocco. In agreement with previous studies, results show a complex and competing influence of different climate phenomena. The NAO is found to be significantly related to yields during the early stage of wheat growth in December, whereas the SCA correlates with yields later in the season, in January and February. Interesting lagged correlations with higher lead time are also highlighted, with the leading modes of SST variability in the equatorial Atlantic during October (the “Atlantic Niño” mode) and in the North Atlantic (the “Atlantic tripole” mode) in February. Our conclusion is that regional climate indices and variables represent valuable information with which to increase lead time and skill regarding wheat yield predictions in Morocco.