外来种入侵的过程、机理和预测

生物入侵是指某种生物从原来的分布区域扩展到一个新的（通常也是遥远的）地区,在新的区域里,其后代可以繁殖、扩散并持续维持下去,生物入侵成功的原因,即与入侵者本身的生物学,生态学特征有关,也与群落的脆弱性有关,入侵者可能较本地种的竞争能力强,更适应当地的环境,有的入侵者还可以改变环境,使之对已有利,而不利于本地种。缺乏天敌制约。群落的稳定性低和异常的环境扰动往往导致生物入侵,生物入侵的预测包括哪一种外来种会变成入侵种？哪些生态系统区域会被入侵？影响程度如何？入侵种的扩散态势如何等内容,对有关的理论和模型作了评介。     

中国外来海洋生物及其影响

到目前为止,我国已从国外引进了鱼类10种、虾类2种、贝类9种、棘皮动物1种、藻类4种进行海水养殖;引进了抗盐植物2种进行盐碱地栽培;海洋水族馆业的发展,引进了数百种观赏性海洋生物;航运业中的船体附着及压舱水排放,无意中带入了几百种外来海洋生物。首先,外来海洋入侵生物与土著海洋生物争夺生存空间与食物,危害我国土著海洋生物的生存。其次,海洋外来生物通过与亲缘关系接近的物种进行杂交,降低我国海洋土著生物的遗传质量,造成遗传污染。再次,外来海洋生物可能带来病原生物,对海洋生态环境造成巨大的危害。此外,近些年来,我国沿海赤潮越来越严重,其重要原因之一是外来生存能力较强的赤潮生物的危害。     

Antarctica: The final frontier for marine biological invasions

Antarctica is experiencing significant ecological and environmental change, which may facilitate the establishment of non‐native marine species. Non‐native marine species will interact with other anthropogenic stressors affecting Antarctic ecosystems, such as climate change (warming, ocean acidification) and pollution, with irreversible ramifications for biodiversity and ecosystem services. We review current knowledge of non‐native marine species in the Antarctic region, the physical and physiological factors that resist establishment of non‐native marine species, changes to resistance under climate change, the role of legislation in limiting marine introductions, and the effect of increasing human activity on vectors and pathways of introduction. Evidence of non‐native marine species is limited: just four marine non‐native and one cryptogenic species that were likely introduced anthropogenically have been reported freely living in Antarctic or sub‐Antarctic waters, but no established populations have been reported; an additional six species have been observed in pathways to Antarctica that are potentially at risk of becoming invasive. We present estimates of the intensity of ship activity across fishing, tourism and research sectors: there may be approximately 180 vessels and 500+ voyages in Antarctic waters annually. However, these estimates are necessarily speculative because relevant data are scarce. To facilitate well‐informed policy and management, we make recommendations for future research into the likelihood of marine biological invasions in the Antarctic region.     

Collembolan water relations and environmental change in the maritime Antarctic

The water status of the collembolan Cryptopygtus antarcticus (Willem) was investigated from April 1984 to December 1987 at Signy Island, maritime Antarctic, by monthly field sampling to determine body water content. Water content, expressed either as the weight of water per unit dry weight or as a proportion of fresh weight, exhibited both a seasonal cycle and an upward trend over the 44-month study, both of which were highly significant. On an annual basis, body water content was at a minimum (1.21 g g^?1) in July and maximal (1.98 g g^?1) in September, whilst over the entire study water contents increased from 1.3 to 2.0 g g^?1 (or 57-66% of fresh weight) calculated from the fitted linear regression line. Field water contents were below those found for this species in culture (2.9-5.9 g g^?1). Individual C. antarcticus survived experimental loss of 20% of their body water with a resultant significant rise in haemolymph osmolarity from 285 to 397 mOsm L^?1 and there was no evidence of osmoregulation under the experimental conditions of 20 °C and 35% relative humidity. The cuticular permeability (mean conductance) of individual Collembola in dry air increased exponentially with temperature over the range D-45 °C (Q₁₀= 2.0) showing no control of water loss. The physiological response of C. antarcticus suggests that it experiences water stress in its maritime Antarctic habitats with significant seasonal variations of body water content, which correlate with annual cycles of water availability. It is concluded that the significant rise in its mean body water content over the 44-month field study was associated with increased glacial ablation due to higher levels of irradiation and windspeed making available more liquid water. Analyses of climate records for Signy Island from 1947 to 1990 showed that mean monthly air temperature rose by 0.93 °C over this period and by 2.29 °C during the 1980s, both statistically significant increases. Mean monthly windspeeds also increased significantly during 1970–90, and it is suggested that this parameter is the primary climatic driving force behind the increase in glacial ablation during the last two decades. The field water status of species such as C. antarcticus may reflect changes in the patterns of atmospheric circulation, associated with the circumpolar vortex, through increased ozone depletion due to increased tropospheric concentrations of halocarbons.     

Biological invasions drive size increases in marine and estuarine invertebrates

Ecologists have long been fascinated by the morphological changes that species frequently undergo when introduced into new regions. In this study an unusual pattern of size change associated with the invasion of 19 species of marine and estuarine invertebrates is reported. The results show that the majority of species are significantly larger in the introduced range compared with the native range with little evidence for any decrease in size following invasion. This invasion‐driven increase in body size sharply contrasts with the pattern observed in many other taxa including plants, mammals and lizards, where invaders frequently exhibit post‐invasion decreases and increases in size. These size changes were not influenced by differences in latitude, sample size or length of time since invasion. Although several mechanisms, may explain the results, none have been demonstrated.     

Climate change and Australia: Trends,projections and impacts

Abstract This review summarizes recent research in Australia on: (i) climate and geophysical trends over the last few decades; (ii) projections for climate change in the 21st century; (iii) predicted impacts from modelling studies on particular ecosystems and native species; and (iv) ecological effects that have apparently occurred as a response to recent warming. Consistent with global trends, Australia has warmed ～0.8°C over the last century with minimum temperatures warming faster than maxima. There have been significant regional trends in rainfall with the northern, eastern and southern parts of the continent receiving greater rainfall and the western region receiving less. Higher rainfall has been associated with an increase in the number of rain days and heavy rainfall events. Sea surface temperatures on the Great Barrier Reef have increased and are associated with an increase in the frequency and severity of coral bleaching and mortality. Sea level rises in Australia have been regionally variable, and considerably less than the global average. Snow cover and duration have declined significantly at some sites in the Snowy Mountains. CSIRO projections for future climatic changes indicate increases in annual average temperatures of 0.4–2.0°C by 2030 (relative to 1990) and 1.0–6.0°C by 2070. Considerable uncertainty remains as to future changes in rainfall, El Niño Southern Oscillation events and tropical cyclone activity. Overall increases in potential evaporation over much of the continent are predicted as well as continued reductions in the extent and duration of snow cover. Future changes in temperature and rainfall are predicted to have significant impacts on most vegetation types that have been modelled to date, although the interactive effect of continuing increases in atmospheric CO₂ has not been incorporated into most modelling studies. Elevated CO₂ will most likely mitigate some of the impacts of climate change by reducing water stress. Future impacts on particular ecosystems include increased forest growth, alterations in competitive regimes between C3 and C4 grasses, increasing encroachment of woody shrubs into arid and semiarid rangelands, continued incursion of mangrove communities into freshwater wetlands, increasing frequency of coral bleaching, and establishment of woody species at increasingly higher elevations in the alpine zone. Modelling of potential impacts on specific Australian taxa using bioclimatic analysis programs such as bioclim consistently predicts contraction and/or fragmentation of species' current ranges. The bioclimates of some species of plants and vertebrates are predicted to disappear entirely with as little as 0.5–1.0°C of warming. Australia lacks the long‐term datasets and tradition of phenological monitoring that have allowed the detection of climate‐change‐related trends in the Northern Hemisphere. Long‐term changes in Australian vegetation can be mostly attributed to alterations in fire regimes, clearing and grazing, but some trends, such as encroachment of rainforest into eucalypt woodlands, and establishment of trees in subalpine meadows probably have a climatic component. Shifts in species distributions toward the south (bats, birds), upward in elevation (alpine mammals) or along changing rainfall contours (birds, semiarid reptiles), have recently been documented and offer circumstantial evidence that temperature and rainfall trends are already affecting geographic ranges. Future research directions suggested include giving more emphasis to the study of climatic impacts and understanding the factors that control species distributions, incorporating the effects of elevated CO₂ into climatic modelling for vegetation and selecting suitable species as indicators of climate‐induced change.     

It is getting hotter in here: determining and projecting the impacts of global environmental change on drylands

Drylands occupy large portions of the Earth, and are a key terrestrial biome from the socio-ecological point of view. In spite of their extent and importance, the impacts of global environmental change on them remain poorly understood. In this introduction, we review some of the main expected impacts of global change in drylands, quantify research efforts on the topic, and highlight how the articles included in this theme issue contribute to fill current gaps in our knowledge. Our literature analyses identify key under-studied areas that need more research (e.g. countries such as Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad and Somalia, and deserts such as the Thar, Kavir and Taklamakan), and indicate that most global change research carried out to date in drylands has been done on a unidisciplinary basis. The contributions included here use a wide array of organisms (from micro-organisms to humans), spatial scales (from local to global) and topics (from plant demography to poverty alleviation) to examine key issues to the socio-ecological impacts of global change in drylands. These papers highlight the complexities and difficulties associated with the prediction of such impacts. They also identify the increased use of long-term experiments and multidisciplinary approaches as priority areas for future dryland research. Major advances in our ability to predict and understand global change impacts on drylands can be achieved by explicitly considering how the responses of individuals, populations and communities will in turn affect ecosystem services. Future research should explore linkages between these responses and their effects on water and climate, as well as the provisioning of services for human development and well-being.     

Review on global change status and its impacts on the Tibetan Plateau environment

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) holds fundamental ecological and environmental significances to China and Asia. The TP also lies in the core zone of the belt and road initiative. To protect the TP environment, a comprehensive screening on current ecological research status is entailed. The teased out research gap can also be utilized as guidelines for the recently launched major research programs, i.e. the second TP scientific expedition and silk and belt road research plan. The findings showed that the TP has experienced significant temperature increase at a rate of 0.2°C per decade since 1960s. The most robust warming trend was found in the northern plateau. Precipitation also exhibited an increasing trend but with high spatial heterogeneity. Changing climates have caused a series of environmental consequences, including lake area changes, glacier shrinkage, permafrost degradation and exacerbated desertification. The rising temperature is the main reason behind the glaciers shrinkage, snow melting, permafrost degradation and lake area changes on the TP and neighboring regions. The projected loss of glacial area on the plateau is estimated to be around 43% by 2070 and 75% by the end of the century. Vegetation was responsive to the changed environments, varied climates and intensified human activities by changing phenology and productivity. Future global change study should be more oriented toward integrating various research methods and tools, and synthesizing diverse subjects of water, vegetation, atmosphere and soil.     

Strategies of survival and resource exploitation in the Antarctic fellfield ecosystem

Antarctic fellfields present organisms with a heterogeneous habitat characterised by a wide variety of environmental stresses. These include low temperatures, limited moisture availability, frequent and often rapid freeze‐thaw and hydration‐dehydration cycles, exposure to high photosynthetic photon flux density and ultraviolet (uv) irradiance, seasonal snow cover, high winds, cryoturbation and, depending on location south of the Antarctic Circle, considerable daylight in summer. Most of these factors vary both predictably and unpredictably in spatial and temporal planes. In response to this adverse environment, fellfield organisms have developed a variety of strategies to overcome physiological stress and to exploit the limited resources available during the short austral growing season. A high degree of synchronisation exists, so that investment in non‐essential activity and adaptations is minimised. Here, we review the combined suites of co‐adapted traits used by different fellfield taxa to achieve energy acquisition, growth and reproduction under adverse levels of two principal limiting factors: low temperatures and the scarcity of water. To this end, a detailed characterisation of the Antarctic fellfield microenvironment is followed by a synthesis of available data on the morphology, physiology, life history and behaviour of successful Antarctic flora and fauna. Tolerance of low temperatures by fellfield organisms is achieved by elevation of standard metabolism, production and accumulation of cryoprotectants, supercooling, melanic pigmentation, behavioural avoidance, compact growth forms and synchronised reproduction and extended life cycles. Low moisture conditions are overcome by dehydration resistance, anhydrobiosis, development of resting stages and by behavioural avoidance of desiccating conditions. Occupancy of the Antarctic fellfield habitat is considered to require the ability to respond rapidly to ephemeral resources and to tolerate severe environmental stresses. During summer, organisms rely on opportunism to maintain a positive energy balance. During winter, resistance adaptations are used to withstand the potentially lethal climate, especially in habitats not protected by snow cover. This deterministic framework has led to the selection of species that are genetically and physiologically pre‐adapted for resource acquisition yet sufficiently robust to withstand cold and desiccation stresses. Non‐adapted taxa fail to become established. Despite the environmental selection pressures, available evidence suggests that colonisation of the fellfield habitat has not required the evolution of any adaptations, only the refinement of those already possessed to an extent by some temperate forms. This has led to the convergence of survival strategies. It is hypothesised that, in the short term, the majority of Antarctic fellfield biota are able to absorb the predicted effects of a changing climate by their high levels of physiological tolerance and life‐cycle flexibility.     

Biological invasions and eutrophication reshape the spatial patterns of stream fish size spectra in France

Aim

The global patterns of body size distributions are affected by global environmental changes (GEC), but our knowledge of the interaction effects between GEC and natural drivers is still limited. In this study, we aimed to test the effects of these interactions on fish community size spectra, that is, the variation in a community property across the body size range of individuals in the community.

Location

One thousand and ninety-five stream locations across France between 2015 and 2018.

Methods

We fitted size spectrum slopes for each fish community based on individual biomass size and using binning and maximum-likelihood methods through regression models across size classes and negative log-likelihood functions, respectively. Interactions between natural drivers and GEC were tested using model-averaging and the best models were selected with information criterion.

Results

Our results demonstrated that size spectra were steeper (i.e. higher proportion of small-bodied individuals) in warmer than colder locations, as expected by temperature-size rules. However, eutrophication (total phosphorus concentration) and biological invasions (percentage of non-native individuals) modulated the effect of temperature, with flatter size spectrum slopes in streams with more nutrients and higher proportion of non-native individuals. In addition, fish size spectrum slopes were generally steeper in upstream than in downstream locations, and this effect was more pronounced in stream locations with more nutrients. Finally, size spectrum slopes were flatter in species-rich communities when nutrient concentration was high.

Main Conclusions

Our study highlights that accounting for GEC, such as eutrophication and biological invasions, can help understanding the complex patterns of fish body size distributions in ecological communities.     

Projecting climate change impacts on species distributions in megadiverse South African Cape and Southwest Australian Floristic Regions: Opportunities and challenges

Increasing evidence shows that anthropogenic climate change is affecting biodiversity. Reducing or stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions may slow global warming, but past emissions will continue to contribute to further unavoidable warming for more than a century. With obvious signs of difficulties in achieving effective mitigation worldwide in the short term at least, sound scientific predictions of future impacts on biodiversity will be required to guide conservation planning and adaptation. This is especially true in Mediterranean type ecosystems that are projected to be among the most significantly affected by anthropogenic climate change, and show the highest levels of confidence in rainfall projections. Multiple methods are available for projecting the consequences of climate change on the main unit of interest – the species – with each method having strengths and weaknesses. Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly applied for forecasting climate change impacts on species geographic ranges. Aggregation of models for different species allows inferences of impacts on biodiversity, though excluding the effects of species interactions. The modelling approach is based on several further assumptions and projections and should be treated cautiously. In the absence of comparable approaches that address large numbers of species, SDMs remain valuable in estimating the vulnerability of species. In this review we discuss the application of SDMs in predicting the impacts of climate change on biodiversity with special reference to the species‐rich South West Australian Floristic Region and South African Cape Floristic Region. We discuss the advantages and challenges in applying SDMs in biodiverse regions with high levels of endemicity, and how a similar biogeographical history in both regions may assist us in understanding their vulnerability to climate change. We suggest how the process of predicting the impacts of climate change on biodiversity with SDMs can be improved and emphasize the role of field monitoring and experiments in validating the predictions of SDMs.     

Invasiveness potential of Miscanthus sinensis: implications for bioenergy production in the United States

Miscanthus sinensis (Anderss.) is a perennial grass species that has been grown widely as an ornamental since the late 1800s and is now being considered for bioenergy production in the United States. With its ability to be grown from seed and tolerate cold climates, this species offers practical advantages over current cultivars of the higher‐yielding hybrid species, M.×giganteus. Yet a large‐scale release of M. sinensis for bioenergy production in colder northern regions could result in new invasions into natural areas. We show, with reference to historical records and data collected in six wild US populations of M. sinensis in 2009, that ornamental varieties of this species have a long history of localized escape in the Eastern United States, primarily within the Appalachian region. To prevent further escape and gene flow, we recommend the development of sterile or functionally sterile varieties of M. sinensis or the restriction of its usage as a donor of genetic material to new sterile cultivars of M. ×giganteus. Other appropriate precautions for new biomass varieties include experimental demonstration of low invasiveness in the target region ahead of commercial production, along with postintroduction stewardship programs.     

Assessing the impacts of climate change and land transformation on Banksia in the South West Australian Floristic Region

Aim To determine the potential combined effects of climate change and land transformation on the modelled geographic ranges of Banksia. Location Mediterranean climate South West Australian Floristic Region (SWAFR). Methods We used the species distribution modelling software Maxent to relate current environmental conditions to occurrence data for 18 Banksia species, and subsequently made spatial predictions using two simple dispersal scenarios (zero and universal), for three climate‐severity scenarios at 2070, taking the impacts of land transformation on species’ ranges into account. The species were chosen to reflect the biogeography of Banksia in the SWAFR. Results Climate‐severity scenario, dispersal scenario, biogeographic distribution and land transformation all influenced the direction and magnitude of the modelled range change responses for the 18 species. The predominant response of species to all climate change scenarios was range contraction, with exceptions for some northern and widespread species. Including land transformation in estimates of modelled geographic range size for the three climate‐severity scenarios generally resulted in smaller gains and larger declines in species ranges across both dispersal scenarios. Including land transformation and assuming zero dispersal resulted, as expected, in the greatest declines in projected range size across all species. Increasing climate change severity greatly increased the risk of decline in the 18 Banksia species, indicating the critical role of mitigating future emissions. Main conclusions The combined effects of climate change and land transformation may have significant adverse impacts on endemic Proteaceae in the SWAFR, especially under high emissions scenarios and if, as expected, natural migration is limiting. Although these results need cautious interpretation in light of the many assumptions underlying the techniques used, the impacts identified warrant a clear focus on monitoring across species ranges to detect early signs of change, and experiments that determine physiological thresholds for species in order to validate and refine the models.     

Widespread dieback in a foundation species on a sub-Antarctic World Heritage Island: Fine-scale patterns and likely drivers

Under anthropogenic climate change, emerging diseases and pathogens are increasingly prevalent in high latitude and altitude regions that were previously protected by cold winter temperatures. Ongoing island-wide dieback of a foundation species, the cushion plant Azorella macquariensis, on World Heritage listed Macquarie Island provides the first sub-Antarctic example. To better understand the island-wide progression of cushion dieback and its drivers, we established and quantified plant condition classes and measured microclimate across 62 sites. We then tested whether the drivers of cushion dieback were associated with (i) water stress: represented by vapour pressure deficit, wind exposure and gravel content, (ii) pathogen virulence: using freezing days and extreme humidity as empirically supported surrogates, or (iii) both. There was a strong north-south progression in cushion condition, with dieback most active in the centre of the island and advanced in the north. Dieback was most extensive at sites with fewer freezing days and high humidity. Natural southern refugia were explained by the significantly colder temperatures, associated with a north-south temperature gradient. It is expected that under current climate change trajectories, where Macquarie is likely to continue to become warmer and wetter, cushion dieback will remain pervasive, expanding most slowly in the south and potentially outpacing recovery. We emphasise the need for increased awareness to prevent the establishment of pathogens into and across the landscapes of newly susceptible high latitude and altitude regions. Areas of high conservation significance need to be prioritised for management, to prevent further landscape-scale change under current climate trajectories.     

Incursion and excursion of Antarctic biota: past, present and future

Aim To investigate the major paradigms of intense isolation and little anthropogenic influence around Antarctica and to examine the timings and scales of the modification of the southern polar biota. Location Antarctica and surrounding regions. Methods First, mechanisms of and evidence for long‐term isolation are reviewed. These include continental drift, the development of a surrounding deep‐water channel and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). They also include levels of endemism, richness and distinctiveness of assemblages. Secondly, evidence for past and modern opportunities for species transport are investigated. Comparative levels of alien establishments are also examined around the Southern Ocean. Discussion On a Cenozoic time‐scale, it is clear that Gondwana's fragmentation led to increasing geographical isolation of Antarctica and the initiation of the ACC, which restricted biota exchange to low levels while still permitting some movement of biota. On a shorter Quaternary time‐scale, the continental ice‐sheet, influenced by solar (Milankovitch) cycles, has expanded and contracted periodically, covering and exposing terrestrial and continental shelf habitats. There were probably refugia for organisms during each glacial maxima. It is also likely that new taxa were introduced into Antarctica during cycles of ice sheet and oceanic front movement. The current situation (a glacial minimum) is not ‘normal’; full interglacials represent only 10% of the last 430 ka. On short (ecological) time‐scales, many natural dispersal processes (airborne, oceanic eddy, rafting and hitch‐hiking on migrants) enable the passage of biota to and from Antarctica. In recent years, humans have become influential both directly by transporting organisms and indirectly by increasing survival and establishment prospects via climate change. Main conclusions Patterns of endemism and alien establishment are very different across taxa, land and sea, and north vs. south of the Polar Frontal Zone. Establishment conditions, as much as transport, are important in limiting alien establishment. Three time‐scales emerge as important in the modification of Antarctica's biota. The natural ‘interglacial’ process of reinvasion of Antarctica is being influenced strongly by humans.     

Riparian vegetation: degradation, alien plant invasions, and restoration prospects

Rivers are conduits for materials and energy; this, the frequent and intense disturbances that these systems experience, and their narrow, linear nature, create problems for conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in the face of increasing human influence. In most parts of the world, riparian zones are highly modified. Changes caused by alien plants — or environmental changes that facilitate shifts in dominance creating novel ecosystems — are often important agents of perturbation in these systems. Many restoration projects are underway. Objective frameworks based on an understanding of biogeographical processes at different spatial scales (reach, segment, catchment), the specific relationships between invasive plants and resilience and ecosystem functioning, and realistic endpoints are needed to guide sustainable restoration initiatives. This paper examines the biogeography and the determinants of composition and structure of riparian vegetation in temperate and subtropical regions and conceptualizes the components of resilience in these systems. We consider changes to structure and functioning caused by, or associated with, alien plant invasions, in particular those that lead to breached abiotic‐ or biotic thresholds. These pose challenges when formulating restoration programmes. Pervasive and escalating human‐mediated changes to multiple factors and at a range of scales in riparian environments demand innovative and pragmatic approaches to restoration. The application of a new framework accommodating such complexity is demonstrated with reference to a hypothetical riparian ecosystem under three scenarios: (1) system unaffected by invasive plants; (2) system initially uninvaded, but with flood‐generated incursion of alien plants and escalating invasion‐driven alteration; and (3) system affected by both invasions and engineering interventions. The scheme has been used to derive a decision‐making framework for restoring riparian zones in South Africa and could guide similar initiatives in other parts of the world.     

Patterns and drivers of climatic niche dynamics during biological invasions of island-endemic amphibians,reptiles, and birds

Shifts between native and alien climatic niches pose a major challenge for predicting biological invasions. This is particularly true for insular species because geophysical barriers could constrain the realization of their fundamental niches, which may lead to underestimates of their invasion potential. To investigate this idea, we estimated the frequency of shifts between native and alien climatic niches and the magnitude of climatic mismatches using 80,148 alien occurrences of 46 endemic insular amphibian, reptile, and bird species. Then, we assessed the influence of nine potential predictors on climatic mismatches across taxa, based on species' characteristics, native range physical characteristics, and alien range properties. We found that climatic mismatch is common during invasions of endemic insular birds and reptiles: 78.3% and 55.1% of their respective alien records occurred outside of the environmental space of species' native climatic niche. In comparison, climatic mismatch was evident for only 16.2% of the amphibian invasions analyzed. Several predictors significantly explained climatic mismatch, and these varied among taxonomic groups. For amphibians, only native range size was associated with climatic mismatch. For reptiles, the magnitude of climatic mismatch was higher for species with narrow native altitudinal ranges, occurring in topographically complex or less remote islands, as well as for species with larger distances between their native and alien ranges. For birds, climatic mismatch was significantly larger for invasions on continents with higher phylogenetic diversity of the recipient community, and when the invader was more evolutionarily distinct. Our findings highlight that apparently common niche shifts of insular species may jeopardize our ability to forecast their potential invasions using correlative methods based on climatic variables. Also, we show which factors provide additional insights on the actual invasion potential of insular endemic amphibians, reptiles, and birds.