Tree rings as a surrogate for economic stress – an example from the Puna of Jujuy,Argentina in the 19th century

This paper illustrates the use of tree-ring indices as an indicator of economic stress. In the 19th century the rural economy in the Puna of Jujuy, Northwestern Argentina was based on livestock (llamas and sheep), and was heavily dependant on the availability of pasture and water in this arid landscape. In the absence of traditional indicators of socioeconomic stress, we used tree-ring indices from moisture sensitive trees (Juglans australis Griseb. and Polylepis tarapacana Phil.) as a proxy for droughts and their related economic stresses. Examining the relationship between population mortality and ring-width indices allows inferences to be drawn about the relative importance of environmental and sociopolitical factors in determining mortality patterns that contributed to the depopulation of this area in the late 19th century.     

Drought as an Inciting Mortality Factor in Scots Pine Stands of the Valais, Switzerland

During the 20th century, high mortality rates of Scots pine (Pinus silvestris L.) have been observed over large areas in the Rhône valley (Valais, Switzerland) and in other dry valleys of the European Alps. In this study, we evaluated drought as a possible inciting factor of Scots pine decline in the Valais. Averaged tree-ring widths, standardized tree-ring series, and estimated annual mortality risks were related to a drought index. Correlations between drought indices and standardized tree-ring series from 11 sites showed a moderate association. Several drought years and drought periods could be detected since 1864 that coincided with decreased growth. Although single, extreme drought years had generally a short-term, reversible effect on tree growth, multi-year drought initiated prolonged growth decreases that increased a tree’s long-term risk of death. Tree death occurred generally several years or even decades after the drought. In conclusion, drought has a limiting effect on tree growth and acts as a bottleneck event in triggering Scots pine decline in the Valais.     

Responses of radial growth to temperature in Larix gmelinii of the Da Hinggan Ling under climate warming

Aims The Da Hinggan Ling is amongst the areas in China susceptible to climate warming. The objective of this study is to determine the responses of radial growth to temperature variations in Larix gmelinii growing in different parts of the Da Hinggan Ling in the process of climate warming, by using dendrochronological techniques. Methods We collected tree-ring samples from the southern, the middle and the northern parts of the main Da Hinggan Ling, developed site-specific ring-width chronologies, and synthesized tree-ring indices of the southern, the middle and the northern parts of the study area according to the first principal component loading factors for each chronology. The relationships between radial growth in L. gmelinii and temperature variations were determined with correlation analysis, and the differences in the responses of radial growth to temperature variations among various parts were analyzed and compared with principle component analysis. Important findings There were notable discrepancies in the effects of temperature variations on radial growth in L. gmelinii between the southern and the northern parts of the study area (the middle part > the northern part > the southern part). In the southern part, the mean monthly temperature between the previous November and April of the current year had a significant relationship with tree-ring indices (p < 0.05). In the middle part, the mean monthly temperature during March and October of the current year had a significant relationship with tree-ring indices (p < 0.05), and so did the mean monthly temperature during June and August of the previous year (p < 0.05). The mean monthly temperature during April and May of the current year had a highly significant relationship with tree-ring indices in the northern part (p < 0.01). This study suggests that the warmer and drier regional climate condition caused by elevated temperature has resulted in that soil moisture becomes the main factor limiting the radial growth, and the relationship between tree growth and temperature variations signified with aggravated soil drought under climate warming. The productivity in L. gmelinii as reflected by basal area increment experienced a shift response from cold stress to water stress. In addition, the radial growth in L. gmelinii in the Da Hinggan Ling will likely to show a declining trend in the southern and the middle parts, and an increasing trend in the northern part, in response to rapid warming in the coming decades.     

Testing for tree-ring divergence in the European Alps

Evidence for reduced sensitivity of tree growth to temperature has been reported from multiple forests along the high northern latitudes. This alleged circumpolar phenomenon described the apparent inability of temperature-sensitive tree-ring width and density chronologies to parallel increasing instrumental temperature measurements since the mid-20th century. In addition to such low-frequency trend offset, the inability of formerly temperature-sensitive tree growth to reflect high-frequency temperature signals in a warming world is indicated at some boreal sites, mainly in Alaska, the Yukon and Siberia. Here, we refer to both of these findings as the ‘divergence problem’ (DP), with their causes and scale being debated. If DP is widespread and the result of climatic forcing, the overall reliability of tree-ring-based temperature reconstructions should be questioned. Testing for DP benefits from well-replicated tree-ring and instrumental data spanning from the 19th to the 21st century. Here, we present a network of 124 larch and spruce sites across the European Alpine arc. Tree-ring width chronologies from 40 larch and 24 spruce sites were selected based on their correlation with early (1864–1933) instrumental temperatures to assess their ability of tracking recent (1934–2003) temperature variations. After the tree-ring series of both species were detrended in a manner that allows low-frequency variations to be preserved and scaled against summer temperatures, no unusual late 20th century DP is found. Independent tree-ring width and density evidence for unprecedented late 20th century temperatures with respect to the past millennium further reinforces our results.     

Hypothesis: the reversal of the relation between economic growth and health progress in Sweden in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries was caused by electrification

The expected decline of health indicators with economic recessions and improvement with economic growth in the nineteenth century Sweden was reversed in the twentieth century, giving the counterintuitive pattern of higher mortality and lower life expectancy in economic expansions and improvement of these indices in recessions. The change or “tipping point” occurred at the end of the nineteenth century or early in the twentieth century when electrification was introduced into Sweden. All 5 of the reversals of annual industrial electric energy use in the US between 1912 and 1970 were accompanied by recessions with lowered GDP, increased unemployment, decreased mortality and increased life expectancy. The health indices were not related to residential electricity use. The mortality improvement between 1931 and 1932 by state in the US strongly favored urban areas over rural areas. Rural unemployment by state in 1930 was significantly positively correlated with residential electrification percentage by state in 1930. The health effects of economic change are mediated by electrical exposure.     

Temporal mortality pattern of pedunculate oaks in southern Sweden

Decline of the oak forests decline in southern Sweden has been reported for more than two decades. Little empirical data exists, however, to study the temporal pattern of the phenomenon in detail. In this study we quantified the temporal pattern of non-windfall oak mortality by analyzing the dataset of 44 dendrochronologically dated dead pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) trees. We compared tree-ring chronologies from recently dead and living trees from the same sites (number of sites=13) located in the nemoral and boreo-nemoral zones in southern Sweden. For each dead tree, tree-ring chronologies were analyzed for the presence of pre-death growth depressions. A growth depression was defined as a period (of one or more years) when growth remained below the 5%, 7%, or 10% quantiles of the ring-width distribution obtained from living trees for a particular year and site.

The most recent peak in oak mortality occurred around the year 2000. Growth depressions were recorded in 80% (n=35) of all dead oaks and were most prominent during the 1990s. While some oaks showed an obvious reduction in growth over several decades, 51% of the dead trees had growth depression for at least 4 years prior to death. Although diameter growth rate differed between living and recently dead trees for at least 30 years, this difference started to amplify in late 1980s–early 1990s. Presence of pre-death growth depression in tree-ring chronologies implies that (a) non-windfall mortality of oak is a decade-long process and (b) the actual death events might be lagging behind the timing of the mortality-inducing factors. ANOVA revealed significant differences in tree responses to the drought year 1992. The cumulative growth increment ratio between 1992–1994 and 1989–1991, was higher in living trees than in those that had recently died. We suggest that the spring and summer drought of 1992 resulted in the mortality of oaks that was observed in southern Sweden at the end of the 20th century. If this time lag exists, it may complicate analyses of decline-related factors and the choice of appropriate actions by forest managers. We conclude that studies of oak decline may benefit from widening the time perspective to include several decades preceding the sampling year.     

亚热带人工和天然马尾松、杉木林生长对干旱的生态弹性差异

选取福建中西部地区相似气候条件下马尾松和杉木的天然林和人工林进行研究,利用年轮宽度、年轮宽度指数和断面积增量重建了4种林型共109株松树20年(1993—2012年)的年生长量,计算其对连续两次极端干旱事件(2003—2004年和2011年)的抵抗力、恢复力和弹性指数,分析人工林和天然林在抵抗力和弹性方面的差异。结果表明:马尾松和杉木对水分的需求在时间上存在差异,这解释了其对2003—2004年干旱事件的响应不一致。干旱压力极大地降低了马尾松和杉木的生长,但树木生长并未表现出干旱遗留效应。受干旱强度的影响,4种林型径向生长对2003—2004年干旱的响应强于2011年。干旱事件后马尾松比杉木具有更强的恢复能力;天然林比人工林对干旱的敏感性更高,同时弹性也更大。杉木人工林更容易受到频发的极端干旱事件的影响,在人工林抚育管理中应选择抗旱能力较强的遗传种源,以应对气候变暖导致的干旱频发。     

The ghost of Christmas past: health effects of poverty in London in 1896 and 1991

ObjectivesTo compare the extent to which late 20th century patterns of mortality in London are predicted by contemporary patterns of poverty and by late 19th century patterns of poverty. To test the hypothesis that the pattern of mortality from causes known to be related to deprivation in early life can be better predicted by the distribution of poverty in the late 19th century than by that in the late 20th century.DesignData from Charles Booth''s survey of inner London in 1896 were digitised and matched to contemporary local government wards. Ward level indices of relative poverty were derived from Booth''s survey and the 1991 UK census of population. All deaths which took place within the surveyed area between 1991 and 1995 were identified and assigned to contemporary local government wards. Standardised mortality ratios for various causes of death were calculated for each ward for all ages, under age 65, and over age 65. Simple correlation and partial correlation analysis were used to estimate the contribution of the indices of poverty from 1896 and 1991 in predicting ward level mortality ratios in the early 1990s.SettingInner London.ResultsFor many causes of death in London, measures of deprivation made around 1896 and 1991 both contributed strongly to predicting the current spatial distribution. Contemporary mortality from diseases which are known to be related to deprivation in early life (stomach cancer, stroke, lung cancer) is predicted more strongly by the distribution of poverty in 1896 than that in 1991. In addition, all cause mortality among people aged over 65 was slightly more strongly related to the geography of poverty in the late 19th century than to its contemporary distribution.ConclusionsContemporary patterns of some diseases have their roots in the past. The fundamental relation between spatial patterns of social deprivation and spatial patterns of mortality is so robust that a century of change in inner London has failed to disrupt it.     

Comparison of living-tree and subfossil ringwidths with summer temperatures from 18, 19 and 20 centuries in Northern Finland

This work seeks to analyse the importance of summer-temperatures an the tree-ring growth of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) during the past three centuries. Three living-tree chronologies, subfossil pine chronology and one composite tree-ring chronology were constructed from latitudinal and altitudinal forest-limits of pine in northern Finland and compared with meteorological data comes from three localities. These data include early instrumental temperature observations from 18^th and 19^th centuries. The modern meteorological data covers the period from 1860 to present. Response functions were derived by means of Pearson correlations using five subperiods as follows: 1738–1748, 1802–1822, 1825–1835, 1861–1926 and 1927–1992. It was demonstrated that the correlations between ringwidths and mid-summer (July) temperatures did not vary significantly as a function of time. Early(June) and late-summer (August) mean temperatures were secondary in relation to mid-summer temperatures in controlling the radial growth. Early-summer temperatures governed pine radial growth most clearly during the 19^th century, whereas late-summer temperatures had strongest influence an ring-widths during the 18^th century and later part of the 20^th century. There was no clear signature of temporally reduced sensitivity of Scots pine ring-widths to mid-summer temperatures over the periods of early meteorological observations. Subfossil pine chronology, constructed using pines recovered from small Jakes along the forest-limit zone, showed a consistent pattern of response to summer-temperatures in relation to living-tree chronologies.     

Water level fluctuations in Lake Baringo,Kenya, during the 19th and 20th centuries: Evidence from lake sediments

This article presents a fossil diatom-based, semi-quantitative reconstruction of water level fluctuations for Lake Baringo over the past 200 years as a consequence of climatic variations. A 285 cm long sediment core sample was collected using a Rod-Operated Single-drive Stationary Piston corer. Lake level was inferred using indices based on the proportion of planktonic to benthic diatom taxa (P/B ratio). The sediment archive presented distinct zones dominated by planktonic and benthic diatom flora. An initial transgression in the early 19th century was characterised as a shallow water environment dominated by planktonic Aulacoseira spp. This was a response to extreme drought during the late 18th to early 19th century. Mid-19th century was defined by a high lake stand. The late 19th to early 20th centuries experienced low water level following the widely documented aridity at the time. The mid-20th century was marked by a spectacular rise in water level that coincided with remarkably wet years during the early 1960s and late 1970s. The first decade of the 21st century witnessed widespread changes in water level. The proxy records show that lake ramping and drawdown over the years follow approximately 50-year climatic cycles.     

An unstable tree-growth response to climate in two 500 year chronologies,North Eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Two new Juniper tree-ring-width (TRW) chronologies spanning more than 500 years were developed in the Yellow River source area, North Eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (NE-QTP). For the two studied sites, located approximately 50 km apart, split correlation and coherence analysis reveal unstable tree-growth responses to local moisture availability. While significant correlations are obtained with April–June local precipitation, Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and river flow from 1948/1954 to 1998 and from 1948/1954 to 1970s, these correlations vanish for the time period 1970s-1998. The local instrumental climate data (precipitation, PDSI and river flow) exhibit opposite correlations with large scale modes of variability (El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO) before and after the 1977 PDO shift. One tree-ring chronology is coherent and anti-phased with instrumental ENSO/PDO indices at 5.2-year frequency. On the longer time span, this TRW chronology is compared with PDO reconstructed from historical Chinese data. This comparison also exhibits unstable multi-decadal relationships, notably in the mid 19th century. Altogether, the comparison between our two chronologies, local instrumental climate records, and ENSO/PDO indices suggest a cautious use of local TRW records for paleoclimate reconstructions. Further studies are needed to explore both the spatial coherency of tree-ring records and the temporal stability of their response to local and large scale climate variability.     

油松树轮指示的秦岭中部过去194年5—7月NDVI变化

由于归一化差异植被指数(NDVI)观测记录较短,对长时间尺度的NDVI变化研究较少,限制了我们对于全球变暖背景下气候驱动的植被生产力变化及其影响的理解。本研究利用陕西秦岭中部油松树轮样本建立区域树轮宽度指数年表,基于秦岭中部区域年表与5—7月NDVI的较高相关(r=0.624,P<0.01,n=34),利用线性回归模型重建秦岭中部1825—2018年5—7月NDVI变化,方差解释量为38.9%。空间分析表明,重建序列能够较好代表研究区范围内NDVI变化。重建序列表明,秦岭中部过去近194年经历了6个高值期和5个低值期,其中2006—2018年植被生长最好,即在最近的升温停滞期,秦岭中部植被生长呈显著恢复性生长。NDVI低值期与研究区区域干旱事件有着良好的对应关系。小波分析表明,重建序列存在2～4、12～16年准周期。SEA分析表明,重建序列在厄尔尼诺年出现显著下降,而在拉尼娜年事件发生后第1年至第3年出现显著上升。预测油松生长在SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5情景下会略微上升。     

Responses of radial growth to temperature in Larix gmelinii of the da Hinggan Ling under climate warming北大核心CSCD

Aims The Da Hinggan Ling is amongst the areas in China susceptible to climate warming. The objective of this study is to determine the responses of radial growth to temperature variations in Larix gmelinii growing in different parts of the Da Hinggan Ling in the process of climate warming, by using dendrochronological techniques. Methods We collected tree-ring samples from the southern, the middle and the northern parts of the main Da Hinggan Ling, developed site-specific ring-width chronologies, and synthesized tree-ring indices of the southern, the middle and the northern parts of the study area according to the first principal component loading factors for each chronology. The relationships between radial growth in L. gmelinii and temperature variations were determined with correlation analysis, and the differences in the responses of radial growth to temperature variations among various parts were analyzed and compared with principle component analysis. Important findings There were notable discrepancies in the effects of temperature variations on radial growth in L. gmelinii between the southern and the northern parts of the study area (the middle part > the northern part > the southern part). In the southern part, the mean monthly temperature between the previous November and April of the current year had a significant relationship with tree-ring indices (p < 0.05). In the middle part, the mean monthly temperature during March and October of the current year had a significant relationship with tree-ring indices (p < 0.05), and so did the mean monthly temperature during June and August of the previous year (p < 0.05). The mean monthly temperature during April and May of the current year had a highly significant relationship with tree-ring indices in the northern part (p < 0.01). This study suggests that the warmer and drier regional climate condition caused by elevated temperature has resulted in that soil moisture becomes the main factor limiting the radial growth, and the relationship between tree growth and temperature variations signified with aggravated soil drought under climate warming. The productivity in L. gmelinii as reflected by basal area increment experienced a shift response from cold stress to water stress. In addition, the radial growth in L. gmelinii in the Da Hinggan Ling will likely to show a declining trend in the southern and the middle parts, and an increasing trend in the northern part, in response to rapid warming in the coming decades.     

Climate signal strength in tree-ring width of spruce growing in the Solovetsky Islands (Russia)

In this study we used 14 spruce tree-ring width local chronologies from sites that are located in different landscape conditions. The climatic response function for the entire period (116 years) shows that all local chronologies without exception have a positive relationship with June temperature (from 0.196 to 0.408) despite quite different local environmental conditions. This finding allowed us to combine all tree-ring width local chronologies into a composite spruce chronology covering the period of 1676–2016 CE with EPS exceeding the 0.85 threshold. The composite chronology was scaled against June air temperatures (CRU TS 4.01) in order to reconstruct it. Monthly air temperature records from the Arkhangelsk weather station were used as an additional source to validate tree-ring based June temperature reconstruction. It is quite remarkable that our reconstruction matches the Archangelsk records not only in the 20th-early 21st centuries but also in the 19th century, confirming the reliability of the reconstruction over more than two centuries. We also used daily records from the nearest Kem’-Port station to identify a more precise target-window. Current research shows that the spruce response to daily temperature is not limited by June, but also extends up to almost half of July. The warmest reconstructed year occurred in 1856 as confirmed by the data published in the local chronicle. The cooling recorded in the historical evidences (describing extremely severe ice conditions in the Arctic seas during the Great Northern Expedition (1733–1743)) was not corroborated by our reconstruction. In the study, we discuss the reasons of the discrepancies found between Solovki June temperature reconstructions and other data such as different seasonality of the compared records, real local climate warming in Solovki, the applied standardization technique, and low of chronologies’ replication. The most reliable part of the reconstruction part lasting from the early 19th to the early 21st centuries is also discussed in terms of its properties like wavelength analyses, and the assessment of influence of volcanic eruptions.     

Epidemiological transitions, reproductive health, and the Flexible Response Model

In concert with improving standards of living since the mid-19th century, chronic and non-infectious diseases replaced infectious diseases as the major causes of mortality in more developed countries. Thus, economic development has been seen as one strategy to improve women's reproductive health. However, rates of two of the major contributors to women's illness, maternal mortality and breast cancer, do not correspond well with the level of economic development. Drawing upon our longitudinal study of reproductive functioning among rural Bolivians (Project Reproduction and Ecology in Provincia Aroma (REPA)), we propose an evolutionary model to explain variation in certain aspects of women's reproductive health. Our findings suggest new avenues of inquiry into the determinants of reproductive health and have implications for improving the well-being of women worldwide.     

Responses of tree-ring growth and crop yield to drought indices in the Shanxi province,North China

In this paper, we analyze the relationships among the tree-ring chronology, meteorological drought (precipitation), agricultural drought (Palmer Drought Severity Index PDSI), hydrological drought (runoff), and agricultural data in the Shanxi province of North China. Correlation analyses indicate that the tree-ring chronology is significantly correlated with all of the drought indices during the main growing season from March to July. Sign test analyses further indicate that the tree-ring chronology shows variation similar to that of the drought indices in both high and low frequencies. Comparisons of the years with narrow tree rings to the severe droughts reflected in all three indices from 1957 to 2008 reveal that the radial growth of the trees in the study region can accurately record the severe drought for which all three indices were in agreement (1972, 1999, 2000, and 2001). Comparisons with the dryness/wetness index indicate that tree-ring growth can properly record the severe droughts in the history. Correlation analyses among agricultural data, tree-ring chronology, and drought indices indicate that the per-unit yield of summer crops is relatively well correlated with the agricultural drought, as indicated by the PDSI. The PDSI is the climatic factor that significantly influences both tree growth and per-unit yield of summer crops in the study region. These results indicate that the PDSI and tree-ring chronology have the potential to be used to monitor and predict the yield of summer crops. Tree-ring chronology is an important tool for drought research and for wider applications in agricultural and hydrological research.     

Tree-ring analysis of white cedar (Thuja occidentalis L.) archaeological and historical wood in Québec City (Québec,Canada)

In Québec City, a segment of an old wooden palisade built for protection was found buried in situ. The palisade was excavated by the Laval University archaeology field school in 2004–2005, and 29 posts were recovered and sampled. The palisade enclosed the Intendant's Palace compound, which was the residence of the governor of New France at the end of the 17th century. Tree-ring analysis was performed on wood excavated from the Intendant's Palace archaeological site (PDI) and additional wood from two historical military buildings, the Artillery Park (ART) (early 18th century) and the Québec Citadel (CIT) (17th–19th centuries). Wood identification revealed that white cedar (Thuja occidentalis L.) was used for wood construction at the three sites. Many trees used for the construction of the PDI palisade were felled after the 1690 growing season, likely in September/October 1690. Posts probably came from trees growing close to the site on the banks of the Saint-Charles River. A white cedar ring-width chronology from the Rimouski area, approximately 300 km northeast of Québec City, along the St. Lawrence River, was used for cross-dating. Archaeological and historical wood samples from two of the three sites (PDI and ART) were first assembled in a 235-year tree-ring chronology, called the Québec chronology, extending from 1489 to 1723. The two master chronologies (Québec and Rimouski) were merged into a single 513-year tree-ring chronology (1489–2001), called the Saint-Laurent chronology.     

Precipitation variability and landslide occurrence in a subtropical mountain ecosystem of NW Argentina

Landslides are common on the steep slopes of the subtropical montane forests in Northwestern (NW) Argentina (Yungas). Instrumental and tree-ring records from this region indicate that rainfall has increased during the second half of the 20th century and there has also been an increase in landslide events. We used dendroecological techniques to date the occurrence of landslides during the past 50 years and examine the relationships with regional precipitation trends. Alnus acuminata H.B.K. is the dominant species in the upper montane forest and colonizes the bare areas exposed by landslides. Landslide dating was based on the identification of suppression-release patterns in ring-width series from trees growing along the landslide scarps, in combination with age determination of trees growing on the landslide failure or depositional surfaces. We cored A. acuminata in three areas that span the latitudinal range of the montane forest in NW Argentina: Los Sosa (27°S), Hualinchay (26°S) and Yala (24°S). The results show that landslide occurrence (and therefore probability) is more frequent during summers with abundant rainfall. As General Circulation Models for subtropical South America predict an increase in summer precipitation during the 21st century, increased precipitation could induce changes in landslide regime that would lead to important environmental changes in these montane ecosystems.     

Trends and uncertainties in Siberian indicators of 20th century warming

Estimates of past climate and future forest biomass dynamics are constrained by uncertainties in the relationships between growth and climatic variability and uncertainties in the instrumental data themselves. Of particular interest in this regard is the boreal-forest zone, where radial growth has historically been closely connected with temperature variability, but various lines of evidence have indicated a decoupling since about the 1960s. We here address this growth-vs.-temperature divergence by analyzing tree-ring width and density data from across Siberia, and comparing 20th century proxy trends with those derived from instrumental stations. We test the influence of approaches considered in the recent literature on the divergence phenomenon (DP), including effects of tree-ring standardization and calibration period, and explore instrumental uncertainties by employing both adjusted and nonadjusted temperature data to assess growth-climate agreement. Results indicate that common methodological and data usage decisions alter 20th century growth and temperature trends in a way that can easily explain the post-1960 DP. We show that (i) Siberian station temperature adjustments were up to 1.3 °C for decadal means before 1940, (ii) tree-ring detrending effects in the order of 0.6–0.8 °C, and (iii) calibration uncertainties up to about 0.4 °C over the past 110 years. Despite these large uncertainties, instrumental and tree growth estimates for the entire 20th century warming interval match each other, to a degree previously not recognized, when care is taken to preserve long-term trends in the tree-ring data. We further show that careful examination of early temperature data and calibration of proxy timeseries over the full period of overlap with instrumental data are both necessary to properly estimate 20th century long-term changes and to avoid erroneous detection of post-1960 divergence.     

暖干化加剧东北半干旱地区油松人工林径向生长的水分限制

相较天然林,人工林生态系统对全球性气候变化更敏感。本文利用树木年代学方法,以东北半干旱地区油松人工林为对象建立油松年轮宽度年表,研究油松生长的动态变化及其径向生长与气象因子的相关关系,探讨升温对油松生长及分布的影响。结果表明: 研究区油松年轮宽度主要与生长季5—7月的平均温度呈显著负相关,与生长季早期4月和生长季5—7月的平均降水量和PDSI呈显著正相关,水分可利用性是限制研究区油松径向生长的主要因子。自西南向东北随着年降水量增加,各样点油松径向生长对年均温的敏感性增强,与年降水量的相关关系由显著正相关转变为负相关,说明偏干旱的西南部地区油松生长受水分限制更严重。气候变暖导致的干旱胁迫使得研究区西南部的部分人工林油松生长呈衰退状态。随着暖干化的持续,研究区油松分布边界将发生局地收缩,适宜生长的边界将向北移动。