Predictors of mortality of patients with acute respiratory failure secondary to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease admitted to an intensive care unit: A one year study

Background

Patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) commonly require hospitalization and admission to intensive care unit (ICU). It is useful to identify patients at the time of admission who are likely to have poor outcome. This study was carried out to define the predictors of mortality in patients with acute exacerbation of COPD and to device a scoring system using the baseline physiological variables for prognosticating these patients.

Methods

Eighty-two patients with acute respiratory failure secondary to COPD admitted to medical ICU over a one-year period were included. Clinical and demographic profile at the time of admission to ICU including APACHE II score and Glasgow coma scale were recorded at the time of admission to ICU. In addition, acid base disorders, renal functions, liver functions and serum albumin, were recorded at the time of presentation. Primary outcome measure was hospital mortality.

Results

Invasive ventilation was required in 69 patients (84.1%). Fifty-two patients survived to hospital discharge (63.4%). APACHE II score at the time of admission to ICU {odds ratio (95 % CI): 1.32 (1.138–1.532); p < 0.001} and serum albumin (done within 24 hours of admission) {odds ratio (95 % CI): 0.114 (0.03-0.432); p = 0.001}. An equation, constructed using the adjusted odds ratio for the two parameters, had an area under the ROC curve of 91.3%. For the choice of cut-off, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value for predicting outcome was 90%, 86.5%, 79.4% and 93.7%.

Conclusion

APACHE II score at admission and SA levels with in 24 hrs after admission are independent predictors of mortality for patients with COPD admitted to ICU. The equation derived from these two parameters is useful for predicting outcome of these patients.     

Acute Respiratory Failure in Critically Ill Patients with Interstitial Lung Disease

Background

Patients with chronic known or unknown interstitial lung disease (ILD) may present with severe respiratory flares that require intensive management. Outcome data in these patients are scarce.

Patients and Methods

Clinical and radiological features were collected in 83 patients with ILD-associated acute respiratory failure (ARF). Determinants of hospital mortality and response to corticosteroid therapy were identified by logistic regression.

Results

Hospital and 1-year mortality rates were 41% and 54% respectively. Pulmonary hypertension, computed tomography (CT) fibrosis and acute kidney injury were independently associated with mortality (odds ratio (OR) 4.55; 95% confidence interval (95%CI) (1.20–17.33); OR, 7.68; (1.78–33.22) and OR 10.60; (2.25–49.97) respectively). Response to steroids was higher in patients with shorter time from hospital admission to corticosteroid therapy. Patients with fibrosis on CT had lower response to steroids (OR, 0.03; (0.005–0.21)). In mechanically ventilated patients, overdistension induced by high PEEP settings was associated with CT fibrosis and hospital mortality.

Conclusion

Mortality is high in ILD-associated ARF. CT and echocardiography are valuable prognostic tools. Prompt corticosteroid therapy may improve survival.     

APACHE III Outcome Prediction in Patients Admitted to the Intensive Care Unit with Sepsis Associated Acute Lung Injury

Background and objective

Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) III score has been widely used for prediction of clinical outcomes in mixed critically ill patients. However, it has not been validated in patients with sepsis-associated acute lung injury (ALI). The aim of the study was to explore the calibration and predictive value of APACHE III in patients with sepsis-associated ALI.

Method

The study was a secondary analysis of a prospective randomized controlled trial investigating the efficacy of rosuvastatin in sepsis-associated ALI (Statins for Acutely Injured Lungs from Sepsis, SAILS). The study population was sepsis-related ALI patients. The primary outcome of the current study was the same as in the original trial, 60-day in-hospital mortality, defined as death before hospital discharge, censored 60 days after enrollment. Discrimination of APACHE III was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) with its 95% CI. Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic was used to assess the calibration of APACHE III. The Brier score was reported to represent the overall performance of APACHE III in predicting outcome.

Main results

A total of 745 patients were included in the study, including 540 survivors and 205 non-survivors. Non-survivors were significantly older than survivors (59.71±16.17 vs 52.00±15.92 years, p<0.001). The primary causes of ALI were also different between survivors and non-survivors (p = 0.017). Survivors were more likely to have the cause of sepsis than non-survivors (21.2% vs. 15.1%). APACHE III score was higher in non-survivors than in survivors (106.72±27.30 vs. 88.42±26.86; p<0.001). Discrimination of APACHE III to predict mortality in ALI patients was moderate with an AUC of 0.68 (95% confidence interval: 0.64–0.73).

Conclusion

this study for the first time validated the discrimination of APACHE III in sepsis associated ALI patients. The result shows that APACHE III score has moderate predictive value for in-hospital mortality among adults with sepsis-associated acute lung injury.     

Performance of Three Prognostic Models in Patients with Cancer in Need of Intensive Care in a Medical Center in China

Objective

The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 (SAPS 3), and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV (APACHE IV) in patients with cancer admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) in a single medical center in China.

Materials and Methods

This is a retrospective observational cohort study including nine hundred and eighty one consecutive patients over a 2-year period.

Results

The hospital mortality rate was 4.5%. When all 981 patients were evaluated, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC, 95% Confidential Intervals) of the three models in predicting hospital mortality were 0.948 (0.914–0.982), 0.863 (0.804–0.923), and 0.873 (0.813–0.934) for SAPS 3, APACHE II and APACHE IV respectively. The p values of Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics for the models were 0.759, 0.900 and 0.878 for SAPS 3, APACHE II and APACHE IV respectively. However, SAPS 3 and APACHE IV underestimated the in-hospital mortality with standardized mortality ratio (SMR) of 1.5 and 1.17 respectively, while APACHE II overestimated the in-hospital mortality with SMR of 0.72. Further analysis showed that discrimination power was better with SAPS 3 than with APACHE II and APACHE IV whether for emergency surgical and medical patients (AUROC of 0.912 vs 0.866 and 0.857) or for scheduled surgical patients (AUROC of 0.945 vs 0.834 and 0.851). Calibration was good for all models (all p > 0.05) whether for scheduled surgical patients or emergency surgical and medical patients. However, in terms of SMR, SAPS 3 was both accurate in predicting the in-hospital mortality for emergency surgical and medical patients and for scheduled surgical patients, while APACHE IV and APACHE II were not.

Conclusion

In this cohort, we found that APACHE II, APACHE IV and SAPS 3 models had good discrimination and calibration ability in predicting in-hospital mortality of critically ill patients with cancer in need of intensive care. Of these three severity scores, SAPS 3 was superior to APACHE II and APACHE IV, whether in terms of discrimination and calibration power, or standardized mortality ratios.     

Long term survival after intensive care.

OBJECTIVE--To examine the long term survival of critically ill patients admitted to an intensive therapy unit and to ascertain the effects of age, severity of illness, and diagnostic category at admission on survival. DESIGN--Retrospective observational study with prospectively gathered data on all patients admitted to the unit between June 1985 and July 1987 and followed up until 1 January 1989. SETTING--Regional intensive therapy unit. PATIENTS--513 critically ill adult patients, 16 of whom were excluded because measurements on severity of illness scoring were not available. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Age, severity of illness (determined with the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) II score), and diagnostic category on admission; deaths in the unit; and long term survival after discharge. Details of the survivors were sent to the Registrar General for Scotland, who issued copies of death certificates for the patients who had died between discharge and 1 January 1989. RESULTS--Of 497 patients, 119 (24%) died in the intensive therapy unit and 120 (24%) after discharge, leaving 258 (52%) who were still alive at two years. The median (APACHE II) score was 13 and about half of the patients were aged 55 years or more. A wide range of critical illnesses, except neurosurgical emergencies, were treated. Survival analysis showed that only 41 (34%) of 122 patients with an APACHE II score of greater than or equal to 20 were alive at one year (95% confidence interval 25 to 42) compared with 124 (80%) of 155 patients with a score of less than 10 (73 to 87). Of the 144 patients aged 65 or more, only 68 (47%) survived to one year (39 to 55) but 90 (83%) of the 109 patients aged between 18 and 34 survived a similar period (76 to 71). Mortality was also related to diagnostic category; 71% of trauma victims survived to one year compared with only 41% of those admitted with gastrointestinal pathology. Univariate analysis of the results showed that age, severity of illness, and diagnosis were all predictors of long term survival. Multivariate analysis, however, showed that only age and severity of illness were independent prognostic factors. CONCLUSIONS--Long term survival of patients treated in an intensive therapy unit is related to severity of illness and to age. The outcome from critical illness in the elderly population is poor.     

降钙素原与APACHEⅡ评分对急性胰腺炎病情严重程度及预后的评估价值

目的:探讨血清降钙素原(PCT)与急性生理学与慢性健康状况评分(APACHE Ⅱ)对急性胰腺炎(AP)患者病情严重程度及预后的评估价值。方法:选取本院2012年5月-2015年5月收治的急性胰腺炎患者280例为研究对象。根据急性胰腺炎患者病情严重程度将其分为低危组(83例)、中危组(102例)和高危组(95例);按患者临床结局将其分为存活组(248例)及死亡组(32例),采用酶联免疫吸附法(ELISA)检测各组血清PCT水平同时记录APACHE Ⅱ评分情况,分别比较PCT水平的差异以及与APACHE Ⅱ评分的相关性,评价血清PCT及APACHEⅡ评分对急性胰腺炎患者病情严重程度及预后的评估价值。结果:低危组、中危组及高危组间血清PCT水平和APACHE Ⅱ评分的差异具有统计学意义(P0.05)。其中,高危组血清PCT水平和APACHE Ⅱ评分最高,中危组次之,低危组最低(P0.05);死亡组PCT水平及APACHE Ⅱ评分显著高于存活组(P0.05)。相关性分析显示血清PCT水平与APACHE Ⅱ评分呈正相关(r=0.64,P0.01)。以PCT2.13 ng/m L为评估急性胰腺炎患者预后不佳界限时,其敏感性和特异性分别79.2%和91.3%;以APACHE Ⅱ评分18.1分为评估急性胰腺炎患者预后不佳界限时,其敏感性和特异性分别为82.7%和90.1%;两者指标串联评估敏感性及特异性分别为86.1%和92.9%,ROC曲线下面积为0.921(95%CI 0.824~0.938)。结论:急性胰腺炎患者血清PCT水平和APACHE Ⅱ评分具有较好的相关性,血清PCT水平越高,APACHEⅡ评分越高,患者病情越严重及预后也越差,二者联合可作为预测急性胰腺炎患者病情严重程度及预后的敏感指标,具有较好的临床应用价值。     

Association between statin therapy and outcomes in critically ill patients: a nested cohort study

Background

The effect of statin therapy on mortality in critically ill patients is controversial, with some studies suggesting a benefit and others suggesting no benefit or even potential harm. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between statin therapy during intensive care unit (ICU) admission and all-cause mortality in critically ill patients.

Methods

This was a nested cohort study within two randomised controlled trials conducted in a tertiary care ICU. All 763 patients who participated in the two trials were included in this study. Of these, 107 patients (14%) received statins during their ICU stay. The primary endpoint was all-cause ICU and hospital mortality. Secondary endpoints included the development of sepsis and severe sepsis during the ICU stay, the ICU length of stay, the hospital length of stay, and the duration of mechanical ventilation. Multivariate logistic regression was used to adjust for clinically and statistically relevant variables.

Results

Statin therapy was associated with a reduction in hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 0.60, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.36-0.99). Statin therapy was associated with lower hospital mortality in the following groups: patients >58 years of age (aOR = 0.58, 95% CI 0.35-0.97), those with an acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE II) score >22 (aOR = 0.54, 95% CI 0.31-0.96), diabetic patients (aOR = 0.52, 95% CI 0.30-0.90), patients on vasopressor therapy (aOR = 0.53, 95% CI 0.29-0.97), those admitted with severe sepsis (aOR = 0.22, 95% CI 0.07-0.66), patients with creatinine ≤100 μmol/L (aOR = 0.14, 95% CI 0.04-0.51), and patients with GCS ≤9 (aOR = 0.34, 95% CI 0.17-0.71). When stratified by statin dose, the mortality reduction was mainly observed with statin equipotent doses ≥40 mg of simvastatin (aOR = 0.53, 95% CI 0.28-1.00). Mortality reduction was observed with simvastatin (aOR = 0.37, 95% CI 0.17-0.81) but not with atorvastatin (aOR = 0.80, 95% CI 0.84-1.46). Statin therapy was not associated with a difference in any of the secondary outcomes.

Conclusion

Statin therapy during ICU stay was associated with a reduction in all-cause hospital mortality. This association was especially noted in high-risk subgroups. This potential benefit needs to be validated in a randomised, controlled trial.     

Survey of 3765 cardiopulmonary resuscitations in British hospitals (the BRESUS Study): methods and overall results.

OBJECTIVE--To determine the circumstances, incidence, and outcome of cardiopulmonary resuscitation in British hospitals. DESIGN--Hospitals registered all cardiopulmonary resuscitation attempts for 12 months or longer and followed survival to one year. SETTING--12 metropolitan, provincial, teaching, and non-teaching hospitals across Britain. SUBJECTS--3765 patients in whom a resuscitation attempt was performed, including 927 in whom the onset of arrest was outside the hospital. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Survival after initial resuscitation, at 24 hours, at discharge from hospital, and at one year, calculated by the life table method. RESULTS--There were 417 known survivors at one year, with 214 lost to follow up. By life table analysis for every eight attempted resuscitations there were three immediate survivors, two at 24 hours, 1.5 leaving hospital alive, and one alive at one year. Survival at one year was 12.5% including out of hospital cases and 15.0% not including these cases. Each hospital year averaged 30 survivors at one year: three who had an arrest outside hospital, seven who had one in the accident and emergency department, seven in the cardiac care unit, 10 in the general wards, and three in other, non-ward areas. Within the hospitals survival rates were best in those who had an arrest in the accident and emergency department, the cardiac care unit, or other specialised units. Outcome varied 12-fold in subgroups defined by age, type of arrest, and place of arrest. CONCLUSION--71% of the mortality at one year in patients undergoing attempted resuscitation occurred during the initial arrest. Hospital resuscitation is life saving and cost effective and warrants appropriate attention, training, coordination, and equipment.     

Validation of a prognostic score in critically ill patients undergoing transport.

Fifty consecutive critically ill patients transported between hospitals by a mobile intensive care team were assessed prospectively using a modification of the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE II) sickness scoring system. Assessments were made before and after resuscitation, on return to base, and after 24 hours of intensive care. No patient died during transport. Twenty two patients died subsequently in hospital and 28 survived to return home. The mean score for the non-survivors before resuscitation was 21.7 and for the survivors 12.2 (p less than 0.0005). Among the non-survivors there was a significant fall in score with resuscitation but this did not alter their subsequent outcome. Neither group deteriorated during transport. The sickness score is a powerful method for determining prognosis, and employed longitudinally it may be useful in the assessment of treatment. It has important implications for the administration and organisation of regional intensive care services.     

耐碳青霉烯类肺炎克雷伯菌血流感染危险因素及预后分析

目的 探讨碳青霉烯类耐药肺炎克雷伯菌血流感染（CSKP）的危险因素以及影响患者28 d预后的相关因素。方法 回顾性分析我院2016年1月至2017年12月期间住院的肺炎克雷伯菌血流感染患者的临床病史资料,按患者血培养标本采集后28 d内预后情况分为存活组与死亡组,应用单因素分析及多因素Logistic回归分析探讨碳青霉烯耐药肺炎克雷伯菌血流感染的危险因素,应用Cox回归分析研究影响肺炎克雷伯菌血流感染28 d预后的相关因素。结果 耐碳青霉烯类肺炎克雷伯菌血流感染的危险因素包括高APACHEⅡ评分、高Pitt菌血症评分、感染时入住ICU、感染前30 d内手术、有创操作、深静脉置管、有创机械通气、器官移植、使用免疫抑制剂、感染前3个月内入住ICU和感染前使用抗菌药物。Logistic回归分析显示高APACHEⅡ评分（OR=1.066,95% CI：1.027~1.107,P=0.001）、手术（OR=3.777,95% CI：1.816~7.855,P<0.001）、有创操作（OR=2.864,95% CI：1.303~6.295,P=0.009）、器官移植（OR=3.892,95% CI：1.553~9.752,P=0.004）、感染前使用抗菌药物（OR=5.626,95% CI：2.740~11.553,P<0.001）是发生碳青霉烯类耐药的肺炎克雷伯菌血流感染的独立危险因素。影响肺炎克雷伯菌血流感染28 d预后的相关因素有高APACHEⅡ评分、高Pitt菌血症评分、感染时入住ICU、感染前30 d内手术、有创操作、深静脉置管、有创机械通气、器官移植、感染前3个月内ICU入住史、使用抗菌药物、粒细胞缺乏、血液透析和菌株对碳青霉烯类耐药。Cox回归分析发现高APACHEⅡ评分（HR=1.061,95% CI：1.039~1.084,P<0.001）、有创操作（HR=2.505,95% CI：1.239~5.063,P=0.011）、入住ICU（HR=1.589,95% CI：1.042~2.424,P=0.031）是影响患者预后的独立危险因素。耐碳青霉烯类肺炎克雷伯菌（CRKP）血流感染患者的28 d病死率明显高于碳青霉烯类敏感肺炎克雷伯菌感染患者（χ2=41.612,P<0.001）。结论 高APACHEⅡ评分、手术、有创操作、器官移植、感染前使用抗菌药物可导致耐碳青霉烯类肺炎克雷伯菌血流感染的发生风险增加。CRKP血流感染患者死亡率显著高于CSKP感染者,但CRKP感染并非患者短期死亡的独立危险因素。而高APACHEⅡ评分、有创操作、入住ICU则可显著增加患者短期病死率。     

气囊面罩联合气管插管通气救治对急诊心肺复苏患者动脉血气指标及预后的影响

摘要 目的：观察气囊面罩联合气管插管通气救治对急诊心肺复苏患者动脉血气指标及预后的影响。方法：选取中国人民解放军联勤保障部队第九四〇医院2020年4月-2022年10月期间收治的急诊心肺复苏患者86例作为研究对象。根据通气方式的不同将患者分为A组（n=41,常规气管插管通气救治）和B组（n=45,气囊面罩联合气管插管通气救治）。对比两组临床指征、急性生理与慢性健康评分（APACHEⅡ）、血气指标[二氧化碳分压（PCO2）、实际碳酸氢根（AB）、氧分压（PO₂）、二氧化碳总量（TCO₂）]、复苏成功率、格拉斯哥昏迷评分（GCS）、6个月存活率。结果：与A组相比,B组的自主呼吸恢复时间、心跳恢复时间、气道开放时间、意识恢复时间更短（P<0.05）。治疗后B组AB、TCO₂、PCO₂低于A组,PO₂高于A组（P<0.05）。治疗后B组APACHEⅡ评分低于A组,GCS高于A组（P<0.05）。B组的复苏成功率、6个月存活率高于A组（P<0.05）。结论：急诊心肺复苏患者使用气囊面罩联合气管插管通气救治,患者的临床指征、动脉血气指标均得到显著改善,且预后良好。     

Risk Score to Predict 1-Year Mortality after Haemodialysis Initiation in Patients with Stage 5 Chronic Kidney Disease under Predialysis Nephrology Care

Background

Few risk scores are available for predicting mortality in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients undergoing predialysis nephrology care. Here, we developed a risk score using predialysis nephrology practice data to predict 1-year mortality following the initiation of haemodialysis (HD) for CKD patients.

Methods

This was a multicenter cohort study involving CKD patients who started HD between April 2006 and March 2011 at 21 institutions with nephrology care services. Patients who had not received predialysis nephrology care at an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of approximately 10 mL/min per 1.73 m² were excluded. Twenty-nine candidate predictors were selected, and the final model for 1-year mortality was developed via multivariate logistic regression and was internally validated by a bootstrapping technique.

Results

A total of 688 patients were enrolled, and 62 (9.0%) patients died within one year of HD initiation. The following variables were retained in the final model: eGFR, serum albumin, calcium, Charlson Comorbidity Index excluding diabetes and renal disease (modified CCI), performance status (PS), and usage of erythropoiesis-stimulating agent (ESA). Their β-coefficients were transformed into integer scores: three points were assigned to modified CCI≥3 and PS 3–4; two to calcium>8.5 mg/dL, modified CCI 1–2, and no use of ESA; and one to albumin<3.5 g/dL, eGFR>7 mL/min per 1.73 m², and PS 1–2. Predicted 1-year mortality risk was 2.5% (score 0–4), 5.5% (score 5–6), 15.2% (score 7–8), and 28.9% (score 9–12). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.83 (95% confidence interval, 0.79–0.89).

Conclusions

We developed a simple 6-item risk score predicting 1-year mortality after the initiation of HD that might help nephrologists make a shared decision with patients and families regarding the initiation of HD.     

The Prognostic Value of Serum Biomarkers in Localized Bone Sarcoma

OBJECTIVE: Certain biomarkers such as the C-reactive protein, serum albumin, and the neutrophils to lymphocyte ratio are of prognostic significance regarding survival in different types of cancers. Data from sarcoma patients are sparse and mainly derived from soft tissue sarcoma and/or metastatic cases. Adjusting for confounders such as comorbidity and age is an essential safeguard against erroneous conclusions regarding the possible prognostic value of these biomarkers. The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic value of a battery of pretreatment biomarkers in the serum of patients with localized bone sarcomas and to adjust for potential confounders. MATERIAL AND METHODS: All patients diagnosed with localized intermediate and high-grade bone sarcoma during 1994 to 2008 were extracted from the Aarhus Sarcoma Registry. The serum levels of albumin, C-reactive protein, hemoglobin, neutrophils, lymphocytes, and sodium were collected from the patient records. The prognostic values of overall and disease-specific mortality were tested for each individual biomarker as well as for the Glasgow prognostic score (GPS) and for a new composite score incorporating five biomarkers (Aarhus composite biomarker score: ACBS). Adjustments were made for comorbidity as well as other possible prognostic factors, such as size, histological type, margin, chemotherapy, and soft tissue extension, using the Cox proportional hazard model. RESULTS: A total of 172 patients with high- or intermediate-grade localized bone sarcoma were included. Of these patients, 63 were diagnosed with chondrosarcoma and 109 patients with Ewing/osteosarcoma. The median age was 55 years for chondrosarcoma and 19 years for Ewing/osteosarcoma patients. The overall 5-year mortality was 31% [95% confidence interval (CI): 21-44] and 41% (95% CI: 33-51), whereas the 5-year disease-specific mortality was 21% (95% CI: 12-34) and 39% (95% CI: 31-49) for chondrosarcoma and Ewing/osteosarcoma, respectively. Comorbidities were present in 12% of the Ewing/osteosarcoma patients and in 24% of the chondrosarcoma patients. After adjustment for comorbidity and other confounders, it was found that elevated levels of CRP, low hemoglobin, low sodium, high GPS, and high ACBS were associated with increased overall mortality. Furthermore, elevated levels of CRP, low hemoglobin, high GPS, and high ACBS were associated with increased disease-specific mortality. CONCLUSION: Elevated levels of CRP, low hemoglobin, high GPS, and high ACBS were all independent prognostic factors for both overall and disease-specific mortality. ACBS is a new three-level score of five biomarkers, but its value has to be confirmed in an independent data set.     

Outcome prediction in sepsis combined use of genetic polymorphisms - A study in Japanese population

Genetic polymorphisms have recently been found to be related to clinical outcome in septic patients. The present study investigated to evaluate the influence of genetic polymorphisms in Japanese septic patients on clinical outcome and whether use of genetic polymorphisms as predictors would enable more accurate prediction of outcome. Effects of 16 genetic polymorphisms related to pro-inflammatory mediators and conventional demographic/clinical parameters (age, sex, past medical history, and APACHE II score) on ICU mortality as well as disease severity during ICU stay were examined in the septic patients (n=123) admitted to the ICU between October 2001 and November 2007 by multivariable logistic regression analysis. ICU mortality was significantly associated with TNF -308GA, IL1β -31CT/TT, and APACHE II score. Receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) analysis demonstrated that, compared with APACHE II score alone (ROC-AUC=0.68), use of APACHE II score and two genetic parameters (TNF -308 and IL1β -31) enabled more accurate prediction of ICU mortality (ROC-AUC=0.80). Significant association of two genetic polymorphisms, TNF -308 and IL1β -31, with ICU mortality was observed in septic patients. In addition, combined use of these genetic parameters with APACHE II score may enable more accurate prediction of outcome in septic patients.     

乳酸和APACHEⅡ评分在评估老年脓毒症患者预后中的应用

目的：研究乳酸和急性生理学及慢性健康状况评分（APACHE Ⅱ评分）对老年脓毒症患者预后的评估作用。方法：老年脓毒症患者96例,按照入院时血乳酸值分成升高者60例,乳酸正常者36例,比较两组的病死率、休克、机械通气和MODS发生率、APACHE Ⅱ评分的区别;根据APACHE Ⅱ评分（〈15、15～24、≥25）分为3组,比较每组患者的病情和预后区别。结果：乳酸升高组老年脓毒症患者的机械通气、休克发生率、MODS发生率、APACHE Ⅱ评分明显大于乳酸正常组（P〈0.05）,病死率明显上升（28.3%vs 2.7%）,（P=0.005）;随着APACHE Ⅱ评分增高,患者病情逐渐加重,休克发生率和住院病死率明显升高,（P〈0.05）,患者乳酸水平也明显增高（P〈0.05）。结论：血乳酸和APACHE Ⅱ评分都可以评估老年脓毒症患者病情严重和预后,两者升高提示预后差。     

APACHEIV和APACHEII预测危重症患者预后的比较性研究

目的：比较不同版本的急性生理和慢性健康评分（Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation,APACHE）（APACHEⅣ和APACHEⅡ）对于成人危重症患者预后评估的应用价值。方法：收集2011年1月至10月入住我院重症监护病房患者的临床资料,分别计算其入ICU24小时内的APACHEⅣ和APACHEII评分,并计算其各自预测病死率,通过标准化死亡率（Standardized Mortality Ratios,SMR）来比较这两个评分系统对危重症患者预后评估的准确性。结果：本研究共纳入184例患者,死亡率为41．8％。APACHEII得分为25±8分,预测死亡率为53．31％;APACHEⅣ得分为93±24分,预测死亡率为30．76％。APACHEII预测死亡率比实际死亡率高（SMR为0．78,95％CI0．614-0．972）;APACHEIV预测死亡率比实际死亡率低（SMR=1.35,95％CI1．066-1．688）。但二者对于危重症患者死亡率的预测没有统计学差异（P〉0．05）。结论：APACHEII和APACHEIV对于危重症患者死亡率预测准确性高;与APACHEII相比,APACHEIV无表现出更为优越的性能,二者之间的差异不存在统计学意义。     

Nucleated Red Blood Cells as Predictors of All-Cause Mortality in Cardiac Intensive Care Unit Patients: A Prospective Cohort Study

Background

The presence of nucleated red blood cells (NRBCs) in the peripheral blood of critically ill patients is associated with a poorer prognosis, though data on cardiovascular critical care patients is lacking. The aim of the present study was to assess the role of NRBCs as a predictor of intensive care unit (ICU) and in hospital all-cause mortality among cardiologic patients.

Methods

NRBCs were measured daily in consecutive cardiac ICU patients, including individuals with both coronary and non-coronary acute cardiac care. We excluded patients younger than 18 years, with cancer or hematological disease, on glucocorticoid therapy, those that were readmitted after hospital discharge and patients who died in the first 24 hours after admission. We performed a multiple logistic analysis to identify independent predictors of mortality.

Results

We included 152 patients (60.6 ± 16.8 years, 51.8% female, median ICU stay of 7 [4–11] days). The prevalence of NRBCs was 54.6% (83/152). The presence of NRBC was associated with a higher ICU mortality (49.4% vs 21.7%, P<0.001) as well as in-hospital mortality (61.4% vs 33.3%, p = 0.001). NRBC were equally associated with mortality among coronary disease (64.71% vs 32.5% [OR 3.80; 95%CI: 1.45–10.0; p = 0.007]) and non-coronary disease patients (61.45% vs 33.3% [OR 3.19; 95%CI: 1.63–6.21; p<0.001]). In a multivariable model, the inclusion of NRBC to the APACHE II score resulted in a significant improvement in the discrimination (p = 0.01).

Conclusions

NRBC are predictors of all-cause in-hospital mortality in patients admitted to a cardiac ICU. This predictive value is independent and complementary to the well validated APACHE II score.     

ISS与APACHEⅡ评分对急诊多发伤患者伤情评估的价值分析

目的:探讨损伤严重程度计分法(Injuryseverityscore,ISS)和慢性健康评分(Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation scoreⅡ,APACHEⅡ)评分对急诊多发伤患者伤情评估的应用价值。方法:将我院自2016年6月至2019年6月急诊收治的多发伤患者85例作为研究对象,分别使用ISS和APACHEⅡ评分,追踪患者住院期间的伤情严重程度和预后情况。结果:急诊多发伤患者入院时ISS评分和APACHEⅡ评分越高,患者ICU收住率和死亡率越高,患者预后越差(P0.05);死亡的急诊多发伤患者ISS评分和APACHE-Ⅱ评分均明显高于存活组(P0.05)。ISS评分预测急诊多发伤患者死亡的灵敏度为87.06%,特异性为85.88%,APACHE-Ⅱ评分预测急诊多发伤患者死亡的灵敏度和特异性分别为88.24%和87.06%,差异无统计学意义(P0.05),两者联合预测急诊多发伤患者死亡的灵敏度为95.29%,特异性为94.12%,均优于单独预测(P0.05)。结论:ISS评分和APACHE-Ⅱ评分能够较为准确的评估急诊多发伤患者的病情严重程度,对患者预后具有较好的预测价值,两者结合使用的应用价值更高。     

One thousand heart attacks in Grampian: the place of cardiopulmonary resuscitation in general practice.

The outcome of 1011 heart attacks in patients under the care of general practitioners who practised cardiopulmonary resuscitation and were equipped with defibrillators is reported. The 28 day mortality was 36% (367 patients), and 59% of deaths occurred outside hospital. The general practitioner was the first medical contact in 92% of heart attacks and was equipped with a defibrillator in 80% of such calls. Fifty six patients had a cardiac arrest in the presence of a general practitioner, and resuscitation was attempted in 47 cases, representing 5% of all calls for heart attacks. Twenty one (45%) resuscitated patients reached hospital alive, and 13 (28%) survived to leave hospital. The opportunities for cardiopulmonary resuscitation in general practice occur sufficiently often to warrant training and equipping general practitioners for advanced life support. The results of resuscitation by general practitioners working alone compare favourably with those of mobile coronary care units based in hospitals.     

Cardiopulmonary resuscitation in the rat

A standardized method of cardiopulmonary resuscitation in rodents has been developed for anesthetized, mechanically ventilated rats. Ventricular fibrillation was induced and maintained by an alternating current delivered to the right ventricular endocardium. After 4 min of ventricular fibrillation, the chest was compressed with a pneumatic piston device. Eight of 14 animals were successfully resuscitated with DC countershock after 6 min of cardiac arrest. In confirmation of earlier studies from our laboratories in dogs, pigs, and human patients, this rodent model of cardiopulmonary resuscitation demonstrated large venoarterial [H+] and PCO2 gradients associated with reduced pulmonary excretion of CO2 during the low-flow state. Mean aortic pressure, coronary perfusion pressure, and end-tidal CO2 during chest compression were predictive of successful resuscitation.