An assessment of overwinter food limitation in a snowshoe hare population at a cyclic low

Snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) undergo 8- to 11-year population cycles caused by direct and/or interactive effects of overwinter food shortage and predation. However, the demographic significance of food shortage during cyclic population lows remains unclear. I evaluated the importance of overwinter food limitation to the demography (numbers, age and sex ratios) of low-density hare populations during two winters in Manitoba. Also, I examined whether the hypothesized differences in demography of fed and unfed hare populations could be explained by altered movement patterns or social dynamics. Bimonthly live-trapping revealed that food failed to have a direct long-term effect on the number, or change in number, of hares estimated to be on the three supplemented areas, relative to three control areas. Modest numerical responses to supplementation tended to be short-term (i.e., restricted to winter) and related to pre-supplementation densities, with the study area characterized by the highest hare density displaying the strongest and most consistent response to added food. During winter the percentage of females was remarkably variable among study areas and time periods, but added food may have augmented slightly the proportion of females captured in traps. There tended to be slightly more juveniles on supplemented areas during winter periods, and this effect was strongest during the first winter (1991–1992). I found that immigration rates and percentage of hares that were considered to be transient animals were similar on supplemented and control areas, and that spatial distribution of radio-collared animals on versus off of study areas also was similar. Because the overall effect of food on hare populations was small and short-lived, and could be explained largely by small increases in survival and reproduction, I conclude that the study population was not subject to overwinter food limitation. Received: 22 February 1998 / Accepted: 12 February 1999     

Sensitivity analysis of effective population size to demographic parameters in house sparrow populations

The ratio between the effective and the census population size, , is an important measure of the long‐term viability and sustainability of a population. Understanding which demographic processes that affect most will improve our understanding of how genetic drift and the probability of fixation of alleles is affected by demography. This knowledge may also be of vital importance in management of endangered populations and species. Here, we use data from 13 natural populations of house sparrow (Passer domesticus) in Norway to calculate the demographic parameters that determine . Using the global variance‐based Sobol’ method for the sensitivity analyses, we found that was most sensitive to demographic variance, especially among older individuals. Furthermore, the individual reproductive values (that determine the demographic variance) were most sensitive to variation in fecundity. Our results draw attention to the applicability of sensitivity analyses in population management and conservation. For population management aiming to reduce the loss of genetic variation, a sensitivity analysis may indicate the demographic parameters towards which resources should be focused. The result of such an analysis may depend on the life history and mating system of the population or species under consideration, because the vital rates and sex–age classes that is most sensitive to may change accordingly.     

Population genetic structure of the cyclic snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) in southwestern Yukon,Canada

Spatial population structure has important ecological and evolutionary consequences. Little is known about the population structure of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus), despite their ecological importance in North American boreal forests. We used seven variable microsatellite DNA loci to determine the spatial genetic structure of snowshoe hares near Kluane Lake, Yukon during a cyclic population peak. We sampled 317 hares at 12 sites separated by distances ranging from 3 to 140 km, and used 46 additional samples from Alaska and Montana. The level of genetic variation was high (13.4 alleles/locus, 0.67 expected heterozygosity) and the distribution of alleles and genotypes was not homogeneous across the sites. The degree of differentiation was low among Yukon sites (FST = 0.015) and between Yukon and Alaska (FST = 0.012), but the Montana site was highly differentiated (FST = 0.20). A weak pattern of isolation by distance was found over the Yukon study area, with an indication that local genetic drift may be important in shaping the regional genetic structure. Landscape barriers expected to influence gene flow did not consistently affect genetic structure, although there was evidence for a partial barrier effect of Kluane Lake. The high level of inferred gene flow confirms that snowshoe hare dispersal is widespread, successful and equal between the sexes. A stepping-stone model of gene flow, potentially influenced by the synchronous density cycle, appears to best explain the observed genetic structure. Our results suggest that despite their dramatic fluctuations in density, snowshoe hares in the northern boreal forest have a large evolutionary effective population size and are not strongly subdivided by either physical or social barriers to gene flow.     

Mark–recapture may reveal more about ecology than about population trends: Demography of a threatened ghost bat (Macroderma gigas) population

Since European settlement in Australia, the geographical range of ghost bats (Macroderma gigas) has contracted northwards. Ghost bats are thought to occur in disjunct populations with little interpopulation migration, raising concerns over the current status and future viability of the southernmost colony, which has also been threatened by mining activity. To address these concerns, demographic parameters of the southernmost colony were estimated from a mark–recapture study conducted during 1975–1981. Female bats gave birth to a single young in late spring, but only 40% (22–70%, 95% CI) of females bred in their second year, increasing to 93% (87–97%, 95% CI) for females ≥ 2 years old. Sixty‐five percent of juveniles caught were female. Annual adult survival ranged between 0.57–0.77 for females and 0.43–0.66 for males, and was lowest over winter–spring and greatest in autumn–winter. Juvenile survival for the first year ranged between 0.35–0.46 for females and 0.29–0.42 for males. Adult survival varied among seasons, was negatively associated with rainfall, but was not associated with temperature beyond being lower in late winter. Poor survival may result from the inferior daytime roosts that bats must use if water seepage forces them to leave their normal roosts. Although these age‐specific rates of fecundity and survival suggested a declining population, mark–recapture estimates of the population trend indicated stability over the study period. Counts at daytime roosts also suggested a population decline, but were considered unreliable because of an increasing tendency of bats to avoid detection. It is therefore likely that some assumptions in estimating survival were violated. These results provide a caution against the uncritical use of population projections derived from mark–recapture estimates of demographic parameters, and the use of untested indices as the basis for conservation decisions.     

Can population growth rates vary with the spatial scale at which they are measured?

1.  The ratio of successive population censuses is often assumed to reflect population growth rates. We identify three simple potential sources of bias in the estimation of population growth rates that relate to either the total number of censused individuals or the spatial areas over which censuses are conducted.
2.  The commonly used method of adding a constant to time series data to avoid problems caused by division by zero can lead to underestimation of growth rates at low densities in increasing populations.
3.  Variances associated with density estimates can lead to positive bias in estimation of growth rates when populations are distributed in ephemeral patches. The spatial variance and spatio-temporal covariance in bank vole census data suggest that this bias could be severe when small trapping grids are used. Use of logged estimators of growth rate avoids this problem.
4.  Using census data from non-randomly placed trapping grids that are smaller than twice the maximum range of natal dispersal to estimate population growth rates can lead to negatively biased estimates, particularly at low population densities.
5.  These three sources of bias are evaluated as explanations for scale-dependent changes in the estimates of growth rates identified in populations of snowshoe hare ( Lepus americanus ), bank voles ( Clethrionomys glareolus ) and lemmings ( Lemmus lemmus ).     

Dampening prey cycle overrides the impact of climate change on predator population dynamics: a long‐term demographic study on tawny owls

Predicting the dynamics of animal populations with different life histories requires careful understanding of demographic responses to multifaceted aspects of global changes, such as climate and trophic interactions. Continent‐scale dampening of vole population cycles, keystone herbivores in many ecosystems, has been recently documented across Europe. However, its impact on guilds of vole‐eating predators remains unknown. To quantify this impact, we used a 27‐year study of an avian predator (tawny owl) and its main prey (field vole) collected in Kielder Forest (UK) where vole dynamics shifted from a high‐ to a low‐amplitude fluctuation regime in the mid‐1990s. We measured the functional responses of four demographic rates to changes in prey dynamics and winter climate, characterized by wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (wNAO). First‐year and adult survival were positively affected by vole density in autumn but relatively insensitive to wNAO. The probability of breeding and number of fledglings were higher in years with high spring vole densities and negative wNAO (i.e. colder and drier winters). These functional responses were incorporated into a stochastic population model. The size of the predator population was projected under scenarios combining prey dynamics and winter climate to test whether climate buffers or alternatively magnifies the impact of changes in prey dynamics. We found the observed dampening vole cycles, characterized by low spring densities, drastically reduced the breeding probability of predators. Our results illustrate that (i) change in trophic interactions can override direct climate change effect; and (ii) the demographic resilience entailed by longevity and the occurrence of a floater stage may be insufficient to buffer hypothesized environmental changes. Ultimately, dampened prey cycles would drive our owl local population towards extinction, with winter climate regimes only altering persistence time. These results suggest that other vole‐eating predators are likely to be threatened by dampening vole cycles throughout Europe.     

Population limitation of the northern red-backed vole in the boreal forests of northern Canada

1. Across the vast boreal forests of North America, no population cycles in Clethrionomys species occur. In Eurasia, by contrast, some Clethrionomys populations of the same species undergo regular 3-5-year cycles. We examined the effects of nutrients, food, competitors, predators and climate on population limitation in the northern red-backed vole (Clethrionomys rutilus Pallas) in the south-western Yukon to determine why this difference occurs. 2. From 1986 to 1996 we added food, reduced large mammal predators and excluded snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus Erxleben) from large plots and found that none of these manipulations affected red-backed vole abundance. Adding nutrients as nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizer had a slight negative effect, probably acting through a reduction in dwarf shrub productivity caused by competition from grasses. 3. We monitored weasel populations directly through trapping and indirectly through snow tracking. Predation by these vole specialists was irrelevant as a limiting factor most of the time because voles in this area do not reach the densities needed to sustain weasel populations. Other boreal forest mammal and bird predators did not focus on red-backed voles. However, when red-backed vole populations increased in the forest and Microtus voles also increased in the meadows, weasel populations increased and may have temporarily depressed red-backed voles in winter. 4. We monitored one major potential food, white spruce seeds, but seed fall was not related to population changes in red-backed voles, even after mast years. 5. We assessed the impact of weather variables, and the average depth of the snow pack during winter (October-March) was correlated directly with vole demography, having both direct effects in that year and delayed effects in the following year. 6. Our long-term trapping data (1973-96) indicate that Clethrionomys populations fluctuated, with peaks following hare peaks by 2-3 years. 7. We propose that the key variable limiting these vole populations is overwinter survival, and this is a function of overwinter food from berries produced during the previous summer by dwarf shrubs. These shrubs may be stimulated by abundant moisture from winter snows or by periodic fertilization from large quantities of pellets produced at snowshoe hare peaks.     

Modeling association among demographic parameters in analysis of open population capture-recapture data

We present a hierarchical extension of the Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model for open population capture-recapture data. In addition to recaptures of marked animals, we model first captures of animals and losses on capture. The parameter set includes capture probabilities, survival rates, and birth rates. The survival rates and birth rates are treated as a random sample from a bivariate distribution, thus the model explicitly incorporates correlation in these demographic rates. A key feature of the model is that the likelihood function, which includes a CJS model factor, is expressed entirely in terms of identifiable parameters; losses on capture can be factored out of the model. Since the computational complexity of classical likelihood methods is prohibitive, we use Markov chain Monte Carlo in a Bayesian analysis. We describe an efficient candidate-generation scheme for Metropolis-Hastings sampling of CJS models and extensions. The procedure is illustrated using mark-recapture data for the moth Gonodontis bidentata.     

A novel approach for estimating growth phases and parameters of bacterial population in batch culture

Using mathematical analysis, a new method has been developed for studying the growth kinetics of bacterial populations in batch culture. First, sampling data were smoothed with the spline interpolation method. Second, the instantaneous rates were derived by numerical differential techniques and finally, the derived data were fitted with the Gaussian function to obtain growth parameters. We named this the Spline-Numerical-Gaussian or SNG method. This method yielded more accurate estimates of the growth rates of bacterial populations and new parameters. It was possible to divide the growth curve into four different but continuous phases based on changes in the instantaneous rates. The four phases are the accelerating growth phase, the constant growth phase, the decelerating growth phase and the declining phase. Total DNA content was measured by flow cytometry and varied depending on the growth phase. The SNG system provides a very powerful tool for describing the kinetics of bacterial population growth. The SNG method avoids the unrealistic assumptions generally used in the traditional growth equations.     

Demographic parameters of a free-ranging deep-diving cetacean,the long-finned pilot whale

Demographic parameters provide baselines to estimate future population trajectories which can then be used in management decisions. The aim here was to estimate demographic parameters of long-finned pilot whale (Globicephala melas) from the Strait of Gibraltar by fitting mark-recapture models to photo-identification data of primary and secondary marked individuals. These parameters were used to forecast the future population trajectories in a population viability analysis (PVA) given different scenarios of demographic rates. Survival rate increased with age from 0.629, 95% CI [0.409, 0.805] for calves, 0.869, 95% CI [0.758, 0.934] for juveniles, to 0.972, 95% CI [0.953, 0.983] for adults. A preliminary mean observed interval of viable calves was 4.5 years. The PVA estimated the population would persist over 100 years with a 100% probability for all scenarios except those with lower 95% CI survival values, for which the probability of extinction reached 100%. Population growth rate was negative in all scenarios except those with 95% CI upper survival values. Interbirth interval and juvenile survival were found most influential and depended on the correct identification of secondary marked (e.g., calves and juveniles) individuals on a long-term basis. This population was found in a precarious state prior to a morbillivirus outbreak that might even more endanger its long-term viability.     

A novel approach for estimating growth phases and parameters of bacterial population in batch culture

Traditionally, microbiologists divided bacterial growth in batch cultures into lag, exponential, station-ary and death phases[1], following the Logistic equa-tion that has been applied to the growth of human populations. The growth curves can always be ch…     

Sensitivity of the population growth rate to demographic variability within and between phases of the disturbance cycle

For species in disturbance-prone ecosystems, vital rates (survival, growth and reproduction) often vary both between and within phases of the cycle of disturbance and recovery; some of this variation is imposed by the environment, but some may represent adaptation of the life history to disturbance. Anthropogenic changes may amplify or impede these patterns of variation, and may have positive or negative effects on population growth. Using stochastic population projection matrix models, we develop stochastic elasticities (proportional derivatives of the long-run population growth rate) to gauge the population effects of three types of change in demographic variability (changes in within- and between-disturbance-phase variability and phase-specific changes). Computing these elasticities for five species of disturbance-influenced perennial plants, we pinpoint demographic rates that may reveal adaptation to disturbance, and we demonstrate that species may differ in their responses to different types of changes in demographic variability driven by climate change.     

Interannual variation in effective number of breeders and estimation of effective population size in long‐lived iteroparous lake sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens)

Quantifying interannual variation in effective adult breeding number (N_b) and relationships between N_b, effective population size (N_e), adult census size (N) and population demographic characteristics are important to predict genetic changes in populations of conservation concern. Such relationships are rarely available for long‐lived iteroparous species like lake sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens). We estimated annual N_b and generational N_e using genotypes from 12 microsatellite loci for lake sturgeon adults (n = 796) captured during ten spawning seasons and offspring (n = 3925) collected during larval dispersal in a closed population over 8 years. Inbreeding and variance N_b estimated using mean and variance in individual reproductive success derived from genetically identified parentage and using linkage disequilibrium (LD) were similar within and among years (interannual range of N_b across estimators: 41–205). Variance in reproductive success and unequal sex ratios reduced N_b relative to N on average 36.8% and 16.3%, respectively. Interannual variation in N_b/N ratios (0.27–0.86) resulted from stable N and low standardized variance in reproductive success due to high proportions of adults breeding and the species' polygamous mating system, despite a 40‐fold difference in annual larval production across years (437–16 417). Results indicated environmental conditions and features of the species' reproductive ecology interact to affect demographic parameters and N_b/N. Estimates of N_e based on three single‐sample estimators, including LD, approximate Bayesian computation and sibship assignment, were similar to annual estimates of N_b. Findings have important implications concerning applications of genetic monitoring in conservation planning for lake sturgeon and other species with similar life histories and mating systems.     

Further results on the survival of a gene represented in a founder population

This paper is concerned with gene survival in a population which may increase without density dependence according to a generalization of the Moran model for haploid individuals. A selective advantage to one allele and the possibility of differential reproductive rates are allowed. Simple conditions are given for ultimate homozygosity to be certain and for the possibility of ultimate polymorphism. The results complement and extend those of Heyde (1981, 1982).     

Phylogeography of the brown hare (Lepus europaeus) in Europe: a legacy of south‐eastern Mediterranean refugia?

Aim We analysed the population genetics of the brown hare (Lepus europaeus) in order to test the hypothesis that this species migrated into central Europe from a number of late glacial refugia, including some in Asia Minor. Location Thirty‐three localities in Greece, Bulgaria, Italy, Croatia, Serbia, Poland, Switzerland, Austria, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, the United Kingdom, Turkey and Israel. Methods In total, 926 brown hares were analysed for mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation by restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) performed on polymerase chain reaction‐amplified products spanning cytochrome b (cyt b)/control region (CR), cytochrome oxidase I (COI) and 12S–16S rRNA. In addition, sequence analysis of the mtDNA CR‐I region was performed on 69 individuals, and the data were compared with 137 mtDNA CR‐I sequences retrieved from GenBank. Results The 112 haplotypes detected were partitioned into five phylogeographically well‐defined major haplogroups, namely the ‘south‐eastern European type haplogroup’ (SEEh), ‘Anatolian/Middle Eastern type haplogroup’ (AMh), ‘European type haplogroup, subgroup A’ (EUh‐A), ‘European type haplogroup, subgroup B’ (EUh‐B) and ‘Intermediate haplogroup’ (INTERh). Sequence data retrieved from GenBank were consistent with the haplogroups determined in this study. In Bulgaria and north‐eastern Greece numerous haplotypes of all five haplogroups were present, forming a large overlap zone. Main conclusions The mtDNA results allow us to infer post‐glacial colonization of large parts of Europe from a late glacial/early Holocene source population in the central or south‐central Balkans. The presence of Anatolian/Middle Eastern haplotypes in the large overlap zone in Bulgaria and north‐eastern Greece reveals gene flow from Anatolia to Europe across the late Pleistocene Bosporus land‐bridge. Although various restocking operations could be partly responsible for the presence of unexpected haplotypes in certain areas, we nevertheless trace a strong phylogeographic signal throughout all regions under study. Throughout Europe, mtDNA results indicate that brown hares are not separated into discernable phyletic groups.