Evolution and maintenance of the environmental component of the phenotypic variance: benefit of plastic traits under changing environments

How environmental variances in quantitative traits are influenced by variable environments is an important problem in evolutionary biology. In this study, the evolution and maintenance of phenotypic variance in a plastic trait under stabilizing selection are investigated. The mapping from genotypic value to phenotypic value of the quantitative trait is approximated by a linear reaction norm, with genotypic effects on its phenotypic mean and sensitivity to environment. The environmental deviation is assumed to be decomposed into environmental quality, which interacts with genotypic value, and residual developmental noise, which is independent of genotype. Environmental quality and the optimal phenotype of stabilizing selection are allowed to randomly fluctuate in both space and time, and individuals migrate equally before development and reproduction among different niches. Analyses show that phenotypic plasticity is adaptive within variable environments if correlations have become established between the optimal phenotype and environmental quality in space and/or time. The evolved plasticity increases with variances in optimal phenotypes and correlations between optimal phenotype and environmental quality; this further induces increases in mean fitness and the environmental variance in the trait. Under certain circumstances, however, the environmental variance may decrease with increase in variation in environmental quality.     

Evolution of the environmental component of the phenotypic variance: stabilizing selection in changing environments and the cost of homogeneity

Quantitative traits show abundant genetic, environmental, and phenotypic variance, yet if they are subject to stabilizing selection for an optimal phenotype, both the genetic and environmental components are expected to decline. The mechanisms that determine the level and maintenance of phenotypic variance are not yet fully understood. While there has been extensive study of mechanisms maintaining genetic variability, it has generally been assumed that environmental variance is not dependent on the genotype and therefore not subject to change. However, accumulating data suggest that the environmental variance is under some degree of genetic control. In this study, it is assumed accordingly that both the genotypic value (i.e., mean phenotypic value) and the variance of phenotypic value given genotypic value depend on the genotype. Two models are investigated as potentially able to explain the protected maintenance of environmental variance of quantitative traits under stabilizing selection. One is varying environment among generations, such that both the optimal phenotype and the strength of the stabilizing selection vary between generations. The other is the cost of homogeneity, which is based on an assumption of an engineering cost of minimizing variability in development. It is shown that a small homogeneity cost is enough to maintain the observed levels of environmental variance, whereas a large amount of temporal variation in the optimal phenotype and the strength of selection would be necessary.     

The temporal distribution of directional gradients under selection for an optimum

Temporal variation in phenotypic selection is often attributed to environmental change causing movements of the adaptive surface relating traits to fitness, but this connection is rarely established empirically. Fluctuating phenotypic selection can be measured by the variance and autocorrelation of directional selection gradients through time. However, the dynamics of these gradients depend not only on environmental changes altering the fitness surface, but also on evolution of the phenotypic distribution. Therefore, it is unclear to what extent variability in selection gradients can inform us about the underlying drivers of their fluctuations. To investigate this question, we derive the temporal distribution of directional gradients under selection for a phenotypic optimum that is either constant or fluctuates randomly in various ways in a finite population. Our analytical results, combined with population‐ and individual‐based simulations, show that although some characteristic patterns can be distinguished, very different types of change in the optimum (including a constant optimum) can generate similar temporal distributions of selection gradients, making it difficult to infer the processes underlying apparent fluctuating selection. Analyzing changes in phenotype distributions together with changes in selection gradients should prove more useful for inferring the mechanisms underlying estimated fluctuating selection.     

THE EVOLUTIONARILY STABLE PHENOTYPE DISTRIBUTION IN A RANDOM ENVIRONMENT

In an unpredictably changing environment, phenotypic variability may evolve as a “bet-hedging” strategy. We examine here two models for evolutionarily stable phenotype distributions resulting from stabilizing selection with a randomly fluctuating optimum. Both models include overlapping generations, either survival of adults or a dormant propagule pool. In the first model (mixed-strategies model) we assume that individuals can produce offspring with a distribution of phenotypes, in which case, the evolutionarily stable population always consists of a single genotype. We show that there is a unique evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) distribution that does not depend on the amount of generational overlap, and that the ESS distribution generically is discrete rather than continuous; that is, there are distinct classes of offspring rather than a continuous distribution of offspring phenotypes. If the probability of extreme fluctuations in the optimum is sufficiently small, then the ESS distribution is monomorphic: a single type fitted to the mean environment. At higher levels of variability, the ESS distribution is polymorphic, and we find stability conditions for dimorphic distributions. For an exponential or similarly broad-tailed distribution of the optimum phenotype, the ESS consists of an infinite number of distinct phenotypes. In the second model we assume that an individual produces offspring with a single, genetically determined phenotype (pure-strategies model). The ESS population then contains multiple genotypes when the environmental variance is sufficiently high. However the phenotype distributions are similar to those in the mixed-strategies model: discrete, with an increasing number of distinct phenotypes as the environmental variance increases.     

What is a phenotype? History and new developments of the concept

Even though the word “phenotype”, as well as the expression “genotype–phenotype relationship”, are a part of the everyday language of biologists, they remain abstract notions that are sometimes misunderstood or misused. In this article, I begin with a review of  the genesis of the concept of phenotype and of the meaning of the genotype-phenotype “relationship" from a historical perspective. I then illustrate how the development of new approaches for exploring the living world has enabled us to phenotype organisms at multiple levels, with traits that can either be measures or parameters of functions, leading to a virtually unlimited amount of phenotypic data. Thus, pleiotropy becomes a central issue in the study of the genotype–phenotype relationship. Finally, I provide a few examples showing that important genetic and evolutionary features clearly differ with the phenotypic level considered. The way genotypic variation propagates across the phenotypic levels to shape fitness variation is an essential research program in biology.

     

The Evolution of Continuous Variation. III. Joint Transmission of Genotype, Phenotype and Environment

Evolutionary models of continuous traits are developed. The models are based on the ideas that: (1) the phenotype is the result of the interaction between genotype and environment; (2) the phenotype is the object of natural selection; (3) not only the genotype but also environmental variables and even phenotypes can be directly transmitted. The phenotype of an offspring at birth is a linear combination of its genotypic value, the phenotypic values of its parents, and their environmental values, all measured on the phenotypic scale. The genetic effects are additive polygenic, and a mutation contribution to the within family variance is admitted.—The values of the offspring phenotype and environment before selection are each linear combinations of these values at birth, the coefficients defining what we call "development." Selection is mostly stabilizing of the Gaussian type, but directional selection is introduced using a Gaussian fitness function with a large variance and a mean far from the current population.—Assortative mating for both phenotype and environment are considered. The analysis in all cases is made by iteration of the means, variances and covariances of the trivariate random variable (genotype, phenotype, environment) whose changes over time completely specify the evolution. In most cases numerical methods are used. The problems of estimating the relative roles of each of the variates in the parents in determining the variates in the offspring are discussed. The major results concern the relative magnitudes of the variances and correlations of the three variates, genotype, phenotype and environment, in a variety of selective, developmental and assorting situations with complex transmission in which G-(genetic), F-(phenotypic), E-(environment) inheritance mechanisms operate jointly. The transmission rules and development patterns (i.e., interactions between phenotype and environment during development) are of major importance in determining qualitative features of the equilibrium distribution.     

Dynamics of Genetic Variability in Two-Locus Models of Stabilizing Selection

We study a two locus model, with additive contributions to the phenotype, to explore the dynamics of different phenotypic characteristics under stabilizing selection and recombination. We demonstrate that the interaction of selection and recombination results in constraints on the mode of phenotypic evolution. Let V(g) be the genic variance of the trait and C(L) be the contribution of linkage disequilibrium to the genotypic variance. We demonstrate that, independent of the initial conditions, the dynamics of the system on the plane (V(g), C(L)) are typically characterized by a quick approach to a straight line with slow evolution along this line afterward. We analyze how the mode and the rate of phenotypic evolution depend on the strength of selection relative to recombination, on the form of fitness function, and the difference in allelic effect. We argue that if selection is not extremely weak relative to recombination, linkage disequilibrium generated by stabilizing selection influences the dynamics significantly. We demonstrate that under these conditions, which are plausible in nature and certainly the case in artificial stabilizing selection experiments, the model can have a polymorphic equilibrium with positive linkage disequilibrium that is stable simultaneously with monomorphic equilibria.     

SELECTION ON MOTHERS AND OFFSPRING: WHOSE PHENOTYPE IS IT AND DOES IT MATTER?

Reproductive and early life-history traits can be considered aspects of either offspring or maternal phenotype, and their evolution will therefore depend on selection operating through offspring and maternal components of fitness. Furthermore, selection at these levels may be antagonistic, with optimal offspring and maternal fitness occurring at different phenotypic values. We examined selection regimes on the correlated traits of birth weight, birth date, and litter size in Soay sheep (Ovis aries) using data from a long-term study of a free-living population on the archipelago of St. Kilda, Scotland. We tested the hypothesis that selective constraints on the evolution of the multivariate phenotype arise through antagonistic selection, either acting at offspring and maternal levels, or on correlated aspects of phenotype. All three traits were found to be under selection through variance in short-term and lifetime measures of fitness. Analysis of lifetime fitness revealed strong positive directional selection on birth weight and weaker selection for increased birth date at both levels. However, there was also evidence for stabilizing selection on these traits at the maternal level, with reduced fitness at high phenotypic values indicating lower phenotypic optima for mothers than for offspring. Additionally, antagonistic selection was found on litter size. From the offspring's point of view it is better to be born a singleton, whereas maternal fitness increases with average litter size. The decreased fitness of twins is caused by their reduced birth weight; therefore, this antagonistic selection likely results from trade-offs between litter size and birth weight that have different optimal resolutions with respect to offspring and maternal fitness. Our results highlight how selection regimes may vary depending on the assignment of reproductive and early life-history traits to either offspring or maternal phenotype.     

Competition can maintain genetic but not environmental variance in the presence of stabilizing selection

A population in which there is stabilizing selection acting on quantitative traits toward an intermediate optimum becomes monomorphic in the absence of mutation. Further, genotypes that show least environmental variation are also favored, such that selection is likely to reduce both genetic and environmental components of phenotypic variance. In contrast, intraspecific competition for resources is more severe between phenotypically similar individuals, such that those deviating from prevailing phenotypes have a selective advantage. It has been shown previously that polymorphism and phenotypic variance can be maintained if competition between individuals is "effectively" stronger than stabilizing selection. Environmental variance is generally observed in quantitative traits, so mechanisms to explain its maintenance are sought, but the impact of competition on its magnitude has not previously been studied. Here we assume that a quantitative trait is subject to selection for an optimal value and to selection due to competition. Further, we assume that both the mean and variance of the phenotypic value depend on genotype, such that both may be affected by selection. Theoretical analysis and numerical simulations reveal that environmental variance can be maintained only when the genetic variance (in mean phenotypic value) is constrained to a very low level. Environmental variance will be replaced entirely by genotypic variance if a range of genotypes that vary widely in mean phenotype are present or become so by mutation. The distribution of mean phenotypic values is discrete when competition is strong relative to stabilizing selection; but more genotypes segregate and the distribution can approach continuity as competition becomes extremely strong. If the magnitude of the environmental variance is not under genetic control, there is a complementary relationship between the levels of environmental and genetic variance such that the level of phenotypic variance is little affected.     

The Effects of Stabilizing and Directional Selection on Phenotypic and Genotypic Variation in a Population of RNA Enzymes

The distribution of variation in a quantitative trait and its underlying distribution of genotypic diversity can both be shaped by stabilizing and directional selection. Understanding either distribution is important, because it determines a population’s response to natural selection. Unfortunately, existing theory makes conflicting predictions about how selection shapes these distributions, and very little pertinent experimental evidence exists. Here we study a simple genetic system, an evolving RNA enzyme (ribozyme) in which a combination of high throughput genotyping and measurement of a biochemical phenotype allow us to address this question. We show that directional selection, compared to stabilizing selection, increases the genotypic diversity of an evolving ribozyme population. In contrast, it leaves the variance in the phenotypic trait unchanged.     

The evolution of genetic canalization under fluctuating selection

Abstract.— If the direction of selection changes from generation to generation, the ability to respond to selection is maladaptive: the response to selection in one generation leads to reduced fitness in the next. Because the response is determined by the amount of genetic variance expressed at the phenotypic level, rapidly fluctuating selection should favor modifier genes that reduce the phenotypic effect of alleles segregating at structural loci underlying the trait. Such reduction in phenotypic expression of genetic variation has been named "genetic canalization." I support this argument with a series of two- and multilocus models with alternating linear selection and Gaussian selection with fluctuating optimum. A canalizing modifier gene affects the fitness of its carriers in three ways: (1) it reduces the phenotypic consequences of genetic response to previous selection; (2) it reduces the genetic response to selection, which is manifested as linkage disequilibrium between the modifier and structural loci; and (3) it reduces the phenotypic variance. The first two effects reduce fitness under directional selection sustained for several generations, but improve fitness when the direction of selection has just been reversed. The net effect tends to favor a canalizing modifier under rapidly fluctuating selection regimes (period of eight generations or less). The third effect improves fitness of the modifier allele if the fitness function is convex and reduces it if the function is concave. Under fluctuating Gaussian selection, the population is more likely to experience the concave portion of the fitness function when selection is stronger. Therefore, only weak to moderately strong fluctuating Gaussian selection favors genetic canalization. This paper considerably broadens the conditions that favor genetic canalization, which so far has only been postulated to evolve under long-term stabilizing selection.     

Selection on skewed characters and the paradox of stasis

Observed phenotypic responses to selection in the wild often differ from predictions based on measurements of selection and genetic variance. An overlooked hypothesis to explain this paradox of stasis is that a skewed phenotypic distribution affects natural selection and evolution. We show through mathematical modeling that, when a trait selected for an optimum phenotype has a skewed distribution, directional selection is detected even at evolutionary equilibrium, where it causes no change in the mean phenotype. When environmental effects are skewed, Lande and Arnold's (1983) directional gradient is in the direction opposite to the skew. In contrast, skewed breeding values can displace the mean phenotype from the optimum, causing directional selection in the direction of the skew. These effects can be partitioned out using alternative selection estimates based on average derivatives of individual relative fitness, or additive genetic covariances between relative fitness and trait (Robertson–Price identity). We assess the validity of these predictions using simulations of selection estimation under moderate sample sizes. Ecologically relevant traits may commonly have skewed distributions, as we here exemplify with avian laying date — repeatedly described as more evolutionarily stable than expected — so this skewness should be accounted for when investigating evolutionary dynamics in the wild.     

Change of Genetic Architecture in Response to Sex

A traditional view is that sexual reproduction increases the potential for phenotypic evolution by expanding the range of genetic variation upon which natural selection can act. However, when nonadditive genetic effects and genetic disequilibria underlie a genetic system, genetic slippage (a change in the mean genotypic value contrary to that promoted by selection) in response to sex may occur. Additionally, depending on whether natural selection is predominantly stabilizing or disruptive, recombination may either enhance or reduce the level of expressed genetic variance. Thus, the role of sexual reproduction in the dynamics of phenotypic evolution depends heavily upon the nature of natural selection and the genetic system of the study population. In the present study, on a permanent lake Daphnia pulicaria population, sexual reproduction resulted in significant genetic slippage and a significant increase in expressed genetic variance for several traits. These observations provide evidence for substantial genetic disequilibria and nonadditive genetic effects underlying the genetic system of the study population. From these results, the fitness function of the previous clonal selection phase is inferred to be directional and/or stabilizing. The data are also used to infer the effects of natural selection on the mean and the genetic variance of the population.     

A QUANTITATIVE-GENETIC MODEL FOR SELECTION ON DEVELOPMENTAL NOISE

We propose a simple model for analyzing the effects of microenvironmental variation in quantitative genetics. Our model assumes that the sensitivity of the phenotype to fluctuations in microenvironment has a genetic basis and allows for genetic correlation between trait value and microenvironmental sensitivity. We analyze the effects of short-term stabilizing and directional selection on the genotypic and microenvironmental components of phenotypic variance. Our model predicts that stabilizing selection on a quantitative trait increases developmental canalization. We show that stabilizing selection can result in an increase in the heritability. Our findings may provide an explanation for the results of selection experiments in which artificial stabilizing selection did not change the heritability coefficient or increased it.     

Sexual selection and temporal phenotypic variation in a damselfly population

Temporal variation in selection can be generated by temporal variation in either the fitness surface or phenotypic distributions around a static fitness surface, or both concurrently. Here, we use within- and between-generation sampling of fitness surfaces and phenotypic distributions over 2 years to investigate the causes of temporal variation in the form of sexual selection on body size in the damselfly Enallagma aspersum. Within a year, when the average female body size differed substantially from the average male body size, male body size experienced directional selection. In contrast, when male and female size distributions overlapped, male body size experienced stabilizing selection when variances in body size were large, but no appreciable selection when the variances in body size were small. The causes of temporal variation in the form of selection can only be inferred by accounting for changes in both the fitness surface and changes in the distribution of phenotypes.     

LONG-TERM CORRELATED RESPONSE,INTERPOPULATION COVARIATION,AND INTERSPECIFIC ALLOMETRY

A model of long-term correlated evolution of multiple quantitative characters is analyzed, which partitions selection into two components: one stabilizing and the other directional. The model assumes that the stabilizing component is less variable than the directional component among populations. The major result is that, within a population, the responses of characters to selection in the short term differ qualitatively from those in the long term. In the short term, the responses depend on genetic correlations between characters, but in the long term they are only determined by the fitness functions of stabilizing and directional selection, independent of genetic and phenotypic correlations. Treating the stabilizing component as a constant and assuming the directional component to vary among populations, I present formulas for the interpopulation covariation and interspecific allometry, which are functions of the intensity matrix of stabilizing selection. Particular attention is paid to the relationship between intra- and interpopulation correlations.     

VISUALIZING MULTIVARIATE SELECTION

Recent developments in quantitative-genetic theory have shown that natural selection can be viewed as the multivariate relationship between fitness and phenotype. This relationship can be described by a multidimensional surface depicting fitness as a function of phenotypic traits. We examine the connection between this surface and the coefficients of phenotypic selection that can be estimated by multiple regression and show how the interpretation of multivariate selection can be facilitated through the use of the method of canonical analysis. The results from this analysis can be used to visualize the surface implied by a set of selection coefficients. Such a visualization provides a compact summary of selection coefficients, can aid in the comparison of selection surfaces, and can help generate testable hypotheses as to the adaptive significance of the traits under study. Further, we discuss traditional definitions of directional, stabilizing, and disruptive selection and conclude that selection may be more usefully classified into two general modes, directional and nonlinear selection, with stabilizing and disruptive selection as special cases of nonlinear selection.     

Pleiotropic model of maintenance of quantitative genetic variation at mutation-selection balance

A pleiotropic model of maintenance of quantitative genetic variation at mutation-selection balance is investigated. Mutations have effects on a metric trait and deleterious effects on fitness, for which a bivariate gamma distribution is assumed. Equations for calculating the strength of apparent stabilizing selection (V(s)) and the genetic variance maintained in segregating populations (V(G)) were derived. A large population can hold a high genetic variance but the apparent stabilizing selection may or may not be relatively strong, depending on other properties such as the distribution of mutation effects. If the distribution of mutation effects on fitness is continuous such that there are few nearly neutral mutants, or a minimum fitness effect is assumed if most mutations are nearly neutral, V(G) increases to an asymptote as the population size increases. Both V(G) and V(s) are strongly affected by the shape of the distribution of mutation effects. Compared with mutants of equal effect, allowing their effects on fitness to vary across loci can produce a much higher V(G) but also a high V(s) (V(s) in phenotypic standard deviation units, which is always larger than the ratio V(P)/V(m)), implying weak apparent stabilizing selection. If the mutational variance V(m) is approximately 10(-3)V(e) (V(e), environmental variance), the model can explain typical values of heritability and also apparent stabilizing selection, provided the latter is quite weak as suggested by a recent review.     

Probabilistic optimization of phenotype distributions: a general solution for the effects of uncertainty on natural selection?

Summary Explorations of optimizing selection often find discrepancies between the theoretically expected and observed phenotypes. Such discrepancies are usually attributed to a variety of potential constraints. We suggest that one common constraint, environmental uncertainty, may reduce the applicability of traditional deterministic or stochastic optimization methods and that many apparent discrepancies might be artifacts of these methods. Since natural selection is essentially a statistical process, we propose that a probabilistic optimization procedure, that includes all of the variability in phenotype distributions and associated fitness potential functions might offer better results. The traditional methods define an optimal gene or genotype as that which produces a phenotype distribution with a mean or other measure of central tendency that equals the value yielding the maximum fitness potential. Our method defines the optimal gene or genotype as that which produces the phenotype distribution that maximizes fitness summed or integrated over its associated fitness potential function. Often the central tendency of the phenotype distribution yielding the probabilistic optimum will differ from the deterministic expectation. This method is an extension of utility theory to any phenotypic character. We illustrate our method using an example based on Price and Waser's (1979) notion of optimal inbreeding via optimal pollen dispersal.     

Spatial variation in phenotypic selection on floral characteristics in an epiphytic orchid

Spatial variation in twelve floral characters was examined in an epiphytic orchidLepanthes rupestris to evaluate the strength and direction of phenotypic selection in seven riparian populations along two river basins in the Caribbean National Forest “El Yunque” for a range of 18–34 months. We evaluated selection on floral characters based on male (pollinaria removal) and female fitness (fruit set). Simple linear and quadratic regressions were used to evaluate the strength of directional, disruptive and stabilizing selections. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to estimate the total strength of the selection acting on a character. Phenotypic selection was inconsistent among characters and populations. Few of the characters appeared to be under selection and none of them was found to be consistent throughout all populations. Inconsistency in selection coefficients among populations could suggest that selection is spatially variable. We only noted one character (column length) which had some consistency in differential selection coefficients among populations. Previous studies have shown that effective population sizes inL. rupestris are small and the observed “fitness differences” among populations could as easily be explained as stochastic events at play. We argue that the observed “fitness differences” in most characters and inconsistency among populations are likely from stochastic noise and not phenotypic selection. Consequently, we propose that random selection on character state support the hypothesis of genetic drift in small orchid populations.