Tracking the 2009 H1N1 influenza virus in the Italian region Campania

A novel swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus affecting humans was detected in April 2009 in Mexico, Canada, and USA. The S-OIV infection caused a mild to severe febrile respiratory disease throughout the world. Here, we briefly review the main features of influenza A viruses, which caused also other pandemics in the past, and focus in particular on the epidemiology data of the H1N1 influenza in the Italian region Campania, which resulted the most affected by the S-OIV and the one with more lethal cases. In Campania, the peak of influenza preceded of about 2 weeks the incidence peak at the national level. Moreover, the percentage of H1N1-positive patients was much higher in the main town Naples, compared to the other Campania provinces. The age group from 7 months to 17 years was the most affected by the H1N1 infection (43.45%), similarly to what reported at the national level. Here, we discuss the possible reasons of the high H1N1 incidence in Campania and the implications that these findings could have on the future prevention campaigns.     

Inside the outbreak of the 2009 influenza A (H1N1)v virus in Mexico

Background

Influenza viruses pose a threat to human health because of their potential to cause global disease. Between mid March and mid April a pandemic influenza A virus emerged in Mexico. This report details 202 cases of infection of humans with the 2009 influenza A virus (H1N1)v which occurred in Mexico City as well as the spread of the virus throughout the entire country.

Methodology and Findings

From May 1st to May 5th nasopharyngeal swabs, derived from 751 patients, were collected at 220 outpatient clinics and 28 hospitals distributed throughout Mexico City. Analysis of samples using real time RT-PCR revealed that 202 patients out of the 751 subjects (26.9%) were confirmed to be infected with the new virus. All confirmed cases of human infection with the strain influenza (H1N1)v suffered respiratory symptoms. The greatest number of confirmed cases during the outbreak of the 2009 influenza A (H1N1)v were seen in neighbourhoods on the northeast side of Mexico City including Iztapalapa, Gustavo A. Madero, Iztacalco, and Tlahuac which are the most populated areas in Mexico City. Using these data, together with data reported by the Mexican Secretariat of Health (MSH) to date, we plot the course of influenza (H1N1)v activity throughout Mexico.

Conclusions

Our data, which is backed up by MSH data, show that the greatest numbers of the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) cases were seen in the most populated areas. We speculate on conditions in Mexico which may have sparked this flu pandemic, the first in 41 years. We accept the hypothesis that high population density and a mass gathering which took in Iztapalapa contributed to the rapid spread of the disease which developed in three peaks of activity throughout the Country.     

引发2009年流感暴发的H1N1新型流感病毒的研究进展

引起流感世界性大流行的主要原因与流感病毒表面抗原血凝素(HA)和神经氨酸酶(NA)频发的变异有很大关系,抗原的变异使得流感病毒可以逃逸机体的免疫防御,而且使许多应用中的疫苗失去防御效果。综述2009年世界暴发的H1N1新型流感病毒的结构在进化过程中发生的变异,有助于增加人们对流感病毒的了解,从而有效的治疗和预防流感大流行。     

新世纪流感大流行的思考

2009年从墨西哥开始暴发了一场席卷全世界的流感疫情．此次大流行的毒株,甲型H1N1病毒,包含了猪源、禽源和人源流感病毒的基因片段．研究该毒株的基因重配、进化历程及其生物学特性,将对防控此次流行具有重要意义．目前,该毒株的遗传进化关系已明确,通过遗传性状分析可获知该毒株可能的生物学性状,但流感大流行动向、毒株遗传变化、毒力及致病性变化仍在密切监控中．流感病毒生态系统具有复杂性,其基因组易突变、易重配、易在自然宿主保存,使得流感大流行存在一定的必然性．正视流感大流行的威胁,积极提高流感病毒在生态系统中的监控,加强流行病学调查,发展疫苗与药物,建立有效公共卫生保障体系,才能降低流感大流行的破坏性．     

一株达菲耐药的甲型H1N1流感病毒全基因特征分析

目的分析1株甲型H1N1流感达菲耐药病毒株的全基因特征,为指导流感临床治疗与防控提供依据。方法采用鸡胚进行病毒分离,提取病毒RNA,通过RT-PCR扩增其全基因组8个基因片段,测定核苷酸序列,利用生物信息软件拼接全基因组序列,绘制基因进化树并分析重要基因位点变异情况。结果 A/Fuzhou/SWL11609/2013(H1N1)流感毒株的8个节段基因均处于2013-2014年度进化簇中,且与A/California/07/2009(H1N1)疫苗株高度同源,8个基因同源性均在97.4%以上;其HA和NA基因与A/Hubei-Wuchang/SWL1322/2013(H1N1)达菲耐药株同源性最高,分别为100.0%和99.6%;初步判断该毒株未发生重配现象,其重要致病性基因位点未发生变异;NA基因中具有H275Y典型达菲耐药位点特征,缺失一个糖基化位点(N386K),降低了基因结构的稳定性,同时在V241I和N369K的作用下降低了病毒的适应性。结论本次研究的甲型H1N1流感达菲耐药病毒株表现为低致病性流感病毒特征,但具备较好的人传人能力,需进一步加强监测,谨防耐药株的广泛流行。     

Oseltamivir-resistant influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus in southern Brazil

The neuraminidase (NA) genes of A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza virus isolates from 306 infected patients were analysed. The circulation of oseltamivir-resistant viruses in Brazil has not been reported previously. Clinical samples were collected in the state of Rio Grande do Sul (RS) from 2009-2011 and two NA inhibitor-resistant mutants were identified, one in 2009 (H275Y) and the other in 2011 (S247N). This study revealed a low prevalence of resistant viruses (0.8%) with no spread of the resistant mutants throughout RS.     

Characterizing the epidemiology of the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic in Mexico

Background

Mexico''s local and national authorities initiated an intense public health response during the early stages of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. In this study we analyzed the epidemiological patterns of the pandemic during April–December 2009 in Mexico and evaluated the impact of nonmedical interventions, school cycles, and demographic factors on influenza transmission.

Methods and Findings

We used influenza surveillance data compiled by the Mexican Institute for Social Security, representing 40% of the population, to study patterns in influenza-like illness (ILIs) hospitalizations, deaths, and case-fatality rate by pandemic wave and geographical region. We also estimated the reproduction number (R) on the basis of the growth rate of daily cases, and used a transmission model to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies initiated during the spring pandemic wave. A total of 117,626 ILI cases were identified during April–December 2009, of which 30.6% were tested for influenza, and 23.3% were positive for the influenza A/H1N1 pandemic virus. A three-wave pandemic profile was identified, with an initial wave in April–May (Mexico City area), a second wave in June–July (southeastern states), and a geographically widespread third wave in August–December. The median age of laboratory confirmed ILI cases was ∼18 years overall and increased to ∼31 years during autumn (p<0.0001). The case-fatality ratio among ILI cases was 1.2% overall, and highest (5.5%) among people over 60 years. The regional R estimates were 1.8–2.1, 1.6–1.9, and 1.2–1.3 for the spring, summer, and fall waves, respectively. We estimate that the 18-day period of mandatory school closures and other social distancing measures implemented in the greater Mexico City area was associated with a 29%–37% reduction in influenza transmission in spring 2009. In addition, an increase in R was observed in late May and early June in the southeast states, after mandatory school suspension resumed and before summer vacation started. State-specific fall pandemic waves began 2–5 weeks after school reopened for the fall term, coinciding with an age shift in influenza cases.

Conclusions

We documented three spatially heterogeneous waves of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic virus in Mexico, which were characterized by a relatively young age distribution of cases. Our study highlights the importance of school cycles on the transmission dynamics of this pandemic influenza strain and suggests that school closure and other mitigation measures could be useful to mitigate future influenza pandemics. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Early outbreak of 2009 influenza A (H1N1) in Mexico prior to identification of pH1N1 virus

Background

In the aftermath of the global spread of 2009 influenza A (pH1N1) virus, still very little is known of the early stages of the outbreak in Mexico during the early months of the year, before the virus was identified.

Methodology/Main Findings

We fit a simple mathematical model, the Richards model, to the number of excess laboratory-confirmed influenza cases in Mexico and Mexico City during the first 15 weeks in 2009 over the average influenza case number of the previous five baseline years of 2004-2008 during the same period to ascertain the turning point (or the peak incidence) of a wave of early influenza infections, and to estimate the transmissibility of the virus during these early months in terms of its basic reproduction number. The results indicate that there may have been an early epidemic in Mexico City as well as in all of Mexico during February/March. Based on excess influenza cases, the estimated basic reproduction number R₀ for the early outbreak was 1.59 (0.55 to 2.62) for Mexico City during weeks 5–9, and 1.25 (0.76, 1.74) for all of Mexico during weeks 5–14.

Conclusions

We established the existence of an early epidemic in Mexico City and in all of Mexico during February/March utilizing the routine influenza surveillance data, although the location of seeding is unknown. Moreover, estimates of R₀ as well as the time of peak incidence (the turning point) for Mexico City and all of Mexico indicate that the early epidemic in Mexico City in February/March had been more transmissible (larger R₀) and peaked earlier than the rest of the country. Our conclusion lends support to the possibility that the virus could have already spread to other continents prior to the identification of the virus and the reporting of lab-confirmed pH1N1 cases in North America in April.     

Genetic and phylogenetic analyses of influenza A H1N1pdm virus in Buenos Aires, Argentina

An influenza pandemic caused by swine-origin influenza virus A/H1N1 (H1N1pdm) spread worldwide in 2009, with 12,080 confirmed cases and 626 deaths occurring in Argentina. A total of 330 H1N1pdm viruses were detected from May to August 2009, and phylogenetic and genetic analyses of 21 complete genome sequences from both mild and fatal cases were achieved with reference to concatenated whole genomes. In addition, the analysis of another 16 hemagglutinin (HA), neuraminidase (NA), and matrix (M) gene sequences of Argentinean isolates was performed. The microevolution timeline was assessed and resistance monitoring of an NA fragment from 228 samples throughout the 2009 pandemic peak was performed by sequencing and pyrosequencing. We also assessed the viral growth kinetics for samples with replacements at the genomic level or special clinical features. In this study, we found by Bayesian inference that the Argentinean complete genome sequences clustered with globally distributed clade 7 sequences. The HA sequences were related to samples from the northern hemisphere autumn-winter from September to December 2009. The NA of Argentinean sequences belonged to the New York group. The N-4 fragment as well as the hierarchical clustering of samples showed that a consensus sequence prevailed in time but also that different variants, including five H275Y oseltamivir-resistant strains, arose from May to August 2009. Fatal and oseltamivir-resistant isolates had impaired growth and a small plaque phenotype compared to oseltamivir-sensitive and consensus strains. Although these strains might not be fit enough to spread in the entire population, molecular surveillance proved to be essential to monitor resistance and viral dynamics in our country.     

Amino Acids Transitioning of 2009 H1N1pdm in Taiwan from 2009 to 2011

A swine-origin influenza A was detected in April 2009 and soon became the 2009 H1N1 pandemic strain (H1N1pdm). The current study revealed the genetic diversity of H1N1pdm, based on 77 and 70 isolates which we collected, respectively, during the 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 influenza seasons in Taiwan. We focused on tracking the amino acid transitioning of hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) genes in the early diversification of the virus and compared them with H1N1pdm strains reported worldwide. We identified newly emerged mutation markers based on A/California/04/2009, described how these markers shifted from the first H1N1pdm season to the one that immediately followed, and discussed how these observations may relate to antigenicity, receptor-binding, and drug susceptibility. It was found that the amino acid mutation rates of H1N1pdm were elevated, from 9.29×10⁻³ substitutions per site in the first season to 1.46×10⁻² in the second season in HA, and from 5.23×10⁻³ to 1.10×10⁻² in NA. Many mutation markers were newly detected in the second season, including 11 in HA and 8 in NA, and some were found having statistical correlation to disease severity. There were five noticeable HA mutations made to antigenic sites. No significant titer changes, however, were detected based on hemagglutination inhibition tests. Only one isolate with H275Y mutation known to reduce susceptibility to NA inhibitors was detected. As limited Taiwanese H1N1pdm viruses were isolated after our sampling period, we gathered 8,876 HA and 6,017 NA H1N1pdm sequences up to April 2012 from NCBI to follow up the dynamics of mentioned HA mutations. While some mutations described in this study seemed to either settle in or die out in the 2011–2012 season, a number of them still showed signs of transitioning, prompting the importance of continuous monitoring of this virus for more seasons to come.     

A/H6N1亚型禽流感病毒致病性评估及与2009 A/H1N1亚型流感病毒在哺乳动物体内的遗传兼容性

目的探讨人、禽流感病毒在哺乳动物体内的遗传兼容性,为下一步研究H6亚型禽流感病毒重配和致病性变异的分子机制奠定基础。方法野鸭源A/H6N1亚型禽流感病毒A/Mallard/SanJiang/275/2007以101EID50～106EID50的攻毒剂量经鼻内途径感染小鼠,通过临床症状观察、病毒滴定和病理切片观察进行病毒学和组织学两方面检测对小鼠的致病性;同时,将此病毒与2009年A/H1N1流感病毒A/Changchun/01/2009(H1N1)混合感染豚鼠,分析两株病毒在哺乳动物体内的遗传兼容性。每天采集豚鼠鼻洗液并用噬斑纯化技术获得重配病毒,对获得的重配病毒进行全基因组序列的测定。结果 H6N1亚型禽流感病毒能直接感染小鼠,但对小鼠不致死。106EID50的攻毒剂量可有效感染小鼠,攻毒后第5天,小鼠表现出被毛较粗乱、活动减少、体重下降、呼吸急促的临床症状,但至攻毒后第10天开始康复,而对照组(MOCK)小鼠在14 d的观察期内无明显临床症状。病毒滴定结果表明,该病毒主要在小鼠肺脏和鼻甲骨中复制,病毒滴度可达104.5EID50/mL。病理学观察发现感染小鼠肺泡壁增厚,有大量炎性细胞浸润,纤维蛋白渗出并伴有轻微出血;在A/H6N1和A/H1N1混合感染豚鼠的重配实验中,经过三轮噬斑纯化从豚鼠鼻洗液中分离到6株重配病毒,说明A/H6N1亚型禽流感病毒与A/H1N1亚型流感病毒具有很好的遗传兼容性,能在豚鼠体内能发生重配。结论野鸭源A/H6N1亚型流感病毒无需适应就能够感染哺乳动物;该病毒与A/H1N1流感病毒具有很好的遗传兼容性,在哺乳动物体内能够发生基因重配,产生新的重配病毒,其公共卫生意义应引起高度关注。     

Sero-prevalence and incidence of A/H1N1 2009 influenza infection in Scotland in winter 2009-2010

Background

Sero-prevalence is a valuable indicator of prevalence and incidence of A/H1N1 2009 infection. However, raw sero-prevalence data must be corrected for background levels of cross-reactivity (i.e. imperfect test specificity) and the effects of immunisation programmes.

Methods and Findings

We obtained serum samples from a representative sample of 1563 adults resident in Scotland between late October 2009 and April 2010. Based on a microneutralisation assay, we estimate that 44% (95% confidence intervals (CIs): 40–47%) of the adult population of Scotland were sero-positive for A/H1N1 2009 influenza by 1 March 2010. Correcting for background cross-reactivity and for recorded vaccination rates by time and age group, we estimated that 34% (27–42%) were naturally infected with A/H1N1 2009 by 1 March 2010. The central estimate increases to >40% if we allow for imperfect test sensitivity. Over half of these infections are estimated to have occurred during the study period and the incidence of infection in late October 2009 was estimated at 4.3 new infections per 1000 people per day (1.2 to 7.2), falling close to zero by April 2010. The central estimate increases to over 5.0 per 1000 if we allow for imperfect test specificity. The rate of infection was higher for younger adults than older adults. Raw sero-prevalences were significantly higher in more deprived areas (likelihood ratio trend statistic = 4.92,1 df, P = 0.03) but there was no evidence of any difference in vaccination rates.

Conclusions

We estimate that almost half the adult population of Scotland were sero-positive for A/H1N1 2009 influenza by early 2010 and that the majority of these individuals (except in the oldest age classes) sero-converted as a result of natural infection with A/H1N1 2009. Public health planning should consider the possibility of higher rates of infection with A/H1N1 2009 influenza in more deprived areas.     

Increased pathogenicity of a reassortant 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus containing an H5N1 hemagglutinin

A novel H1N1 influenza virus emerged in 2009 (pH1N1) to become the first influenza pandemic of the 21st century. This virus is now cocirculating with highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza viruses in many parts of the world, raising concerns that a reassortment event may lead to highly pathogenic influenza strains with the capacity to infect humans more readily and cause severe disease. To investigate the virulence of pH1N1-H5N1 reassortant viruses, we created pH1N1 (A/California/04/2009) viruses expressing individual genes from an avian H5N1 influenza strain (A/Hong Kong/483/1997). Using several in vitro models of virus replication, we observed increased replication for a reassortant CA/09 virus expressing the hemagglutinin (HA) gene of HK/483 (CA/09-483HA) relative to that of either parental CA/09 virus or reassortant CA/09 expressing other HK/483 genes. This increased replication correlated with enhanced pathogenicity in infected mice similar to that of the parental HK/483 strain. The serial passage of the CA/09 parental virus and the CA/09-483HA virus through primary human lung epithelial cells resulted in increased pathogenicity, suggesting that these viruses easily adapt to humans and become more virulent. In contrast, serial passage attenuated the parental HK/483 virus in vitro and resulted in slightly reduced morbidity in vivo, suggesting that sustained replication in humans attenuates H5N1 avian influenza viruses. Taken together, these data suggest that reassortment between cocirculating human pH1N1 and avian H5N1 influenza strains will result in a virus with the potential for increased pathogenicity in mammals.     

Seroprevalence and severity of 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 in Taiwan

Background

This study is to determine the seroprevalence of the pandemic influenza A H1N1 virus (pH1N1) in Taiwan before and after the 2009 pandemic, and to estimate the relative severity of pH1N1 infections among different age groups.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A total of 1544 and 1558 random serum samples were collected from the general population in Taiwan in 2007 and 2010, respectively. Seropositivity was defined by a hemagglutination inhibition titer to pH1N1 (A/Taiwan/126/09) ≥1:40. The seropositivity rate of pH1N1 among the unvaccinated subjects and national surveillance data were used to compare the proportion of infections that led to severe diseases and fatalities among different age groups. The overall seroprevalence of pH1N1 was 0.91% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.43–1.38) in 2007 and significantly increased to 29.9% (95% CI 27.6–32.2) in 2010 (p<0.0001), with the peak attack rate (55.4%) in 10–17 year-old adolescents, the lowest in elderly ≥65 years (14.1%). The overall attack rates were 20.6% (188/912) in unvaccinated subjects. Among the unvaccinated but infected populations, the estimated attack rates of severe cases per 100,000 infections were significantly higher in children aged 0–5 years (54.9 cases, odds ratio [OR] 4.23, 95% CI 3.04–5.90) and elderly ≥ 65years (22.4 cases, OR 2.76, 95% CI 1.99–3.83) compared to adolescents aged 10–17 years (13.0 cases). The overall case-fatality rate was 0.98 per 100,000 infections without a significant difference in different age groups.

Conclusions/Significance

Pre-existing immunity against pH1N1 was rarely identified in Taiwanese at any age in 2007. Young children and elderly – the two most lower seroprotection groups showed the greatest vulnerability to clinical severity after the pH1N1 infections. These results imply that both age groups should have higher priority for immunization in the coming flu season.     

Prevalence of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus antibodies, Tampa Bay Florida--November-December, 2009

Background

In 2009, a novel influenza virus (2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus (pH1N1)) caused significant disease in the United States. Most states, including Florida, experienced a large fall wave of disease from September through November, after which disease activity decreased substantially. We determined the prevalence of antibodies due to the pH1N1 virus in Florida after influenza activity had peaked and estimated the proportion of the population infected with pH1N1 virus during the pandemic.

Methods

During November-December 2009, we collected leftover serum from a blood bank, a pediatric children''s hospital and a pediatric outpatient clinic in Tampa Bay Florida. Serum was tested for pH1N1 virus antibodies using the hemagglutination-inhibition (HI) assay. HI titers ≥40 were considered seropositive. We adjusted seroprevalence results to account for previously established HI assay specificity and sensitivity and employed a simple statistical model to estimate the proportion of seropositivity due to pH1N1 virus infection and vaccination.

Results

During the study time period, the overall seroprevalence in Tampa Bay, Florida was 25%, increasing to 30% after adjusting for HI assay sensitivity and specificity. We estimated that 5.9% of the population had vaccine-induced seropositivity while 25% had seropositivity secondary to pH1N1 virus infection. The highest cumulative incidence of pH1N1 virus infection was among children aged 5–17 years (53%) and young adults aged 18–24 years (47%), while adults aged ≥50 years had the lowest cumulative incidence (11–13%) of pH1N1 virus infection.

Conclusions

After the peak of the fall wave of the pandemic, an estimated one quarter of the Tampa Bay population had been infected with the pH1N1 virus. Consistent with epidemiologic trends observed during the pandemic, the highest burdens of disease were among school-aged children and young adults.     

2009流行性感冒患者血清细胞因子的变化特点

本文旨在通过比较30例2009甲型H1N1流行性感冒(简称流感)患者经奥司他韦治疗前、后血清中细胞因子的变化特点,探讨其可能的发病机制.30例患者分为奥司他韦治疗前组和治疗后组,另选取健康志愿者20例为对照组.采用酶联免疫吸附试验,检测患者血清白细胞介素10(IL-10)、IL-2、IL-8及γ干扰素(IFN-γ)水平...     

Use of intravenous peramivir for treatment of severe influenza A(H1N1)pdm09

Oral antiviral agents to treat influenza are challenging to administer in the intensive care unit (ICU). We describe 57 critically ill patients treated with the investigational intravenous neuraminidase inhibitor drug peramivir for influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 [pH1N1]. Most received late peramivir treatment following clinical deterioration in the ICU on enterically-administered oseltamivir therapy. The median age was 40 years (range 5 months-81 years). Common clinical complications included pneumonia or acute respiratory distress syndrome requiring mechanical ventilation (54; 95%), sepsis requiring vasopressor support (34/53; 64%), acute renal failure requiring hemodialysis (19/53; 36%) and secondary bacterial infection (14; 25%). Over half (29; 51%) died. When comparing the 57 peramivir-treated cases with 1627 critically ill cases who did not receive peramivir, peramivir recipients were more likely to be diagnosed with pneumonia/acute respiratory distress syndrome (p?=?0.0002) or sepsis (p?=?<0.0001), require mechanical ventilation (p?=?<0.0001) or die (p?=?<0.0001). The high mortality could be due to the pre-existing clinical severity of cases prior to request for peramivir, but also raises questions about peramivir safety and effectiveness in hospitalized and critically ill patients. The use of peramivir merits further study in randomized controlled trials, or by use of methods such as propensity scoring and matching, to assess clinical effectiveness and safety.     

Virulence attenuation during an influenza A/H5N1 pandemic

More than 15 years after the first human cases of influenza A/H5N1 in Hong Kong, the world remains at risk for an H5N1 pandemic. Preparedness activities have focused on antiviral stockpiling and distribution, development of a human H5N1 vaccine, operationalizing screening and social distancing policies, and other non-pharmaceutical interventions. The planning of these interventions has been done in an attempt to lessen the cumulative mortality resulting from a hypothetical H5N1 pandemic. In this theoretical study, we consider the natural limitations on an H5N1 pandemic''s mortality imposed by the virus'' epidemiological–evolutionary constraints. Evolutionary theory dictates that pathogens should evolve to be relatively benign, depending on the magnitude of the correlation between a pathogen''s virulence and its transmissibility. Because the case fatality of H5N1 infections in humans is currently 60 per cent, it is doubtful that the current viruses are close to their evolutionary optimum for transmission among humans. To describe the dynamics of virulence evolution during an H5N1 pandemic, we build a mathematical model based on the patterns of clinical progression in past H5N1 cases. Using both a deterministic model and a stochastic individual-based simulation, we describe (i) the drivers of evolutionary dynamics during an H5N1 pandemic, (ii) the range of case fatalities for which H5N1 viruses can successfully cause outbreaks in humans, and (iii) the effects of different kinds of social distancing on virulence evolution. We discuss two main epidemiological–evolutionary features of this system (i) the delaying or slowing of an epidemic which results in a majority of hosts experiencing an attenuated virulence phenotype and (ii) the strong evolutionary pressure for lower virulence experienced by the virus during a period of intense social distancing.