A GIS simulation of potential vegetation in China under different climate scenarios at the end of the 21st century

The study of potential vegetation can reveal the impact of climate on changes in vegetation patterns. It is the starting point for studying vegetation-environmental classification and relationships, and it is the key point for studying global change and terrestrial ecosystems. By using the Comprehensive Sequential Classification System (CSCS) and the meteorological data under the four climate change scenarios from the IPCC5 publication, the present paper carries out a GIS simulation study of the spatial distribution of potential vegetation in China at the end of the 21st century. The results indicate that under the four climate scenarios at the end of the 21st century: (1) The potential vegetation in China shows significant horizontal and vertical distribution, which corresponds well to those of natural topographic features. (2) There are 40 classes of potential vegetation in China. Tropical-extrarid tropical desert (VIIA), which has no corresponding condition of growth in China, is commonly lacking, and differences exist among the potential vegetation classes and among the ratios of the classes under different scenarios. (3) From the perspective of categories, temperate forest is the most widely distributed, and savanna is the least widely distributed. Together with the strengthening of the radiation intensity according to RCP2.6 → RCP4.5 → RCP6.0 → RCP8.5, the area covered by cold-dry potential vegetation decreases as the area covered by warm-humid potential vegetation increases. As a result, the areas of tundra and alpine steppe, frigid desert, steppe, and temperate humid grassland tend to decrease, and those of semi-desert, temperate forest, sub-tropical forest, tropical forest, warm desert, and savanna tend to increase. Moreover, the potential vegetation in China at the end of the 21st century would change at different levels and in different directions when compared with that at the end of the 20th century. (4) In the same period, potential vegetation in different regions shows differences in their sensitivity to climate change, and by the end of the 21st century, 30.73% of land in China would be classified as a sensitive region, which highly corresponds to the current ecologically vulnerable zone, and whose potential vegetation easily evolves along with changes of climate scenarios.     

Sensitivity of salmonid freshwater life history in western US streams to future climate conditions

We projected effects of mid‐21st century climate on the early life growth of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead (O. mykiss) in western United States streams. Air temperature and snowpack trends projected from observed 20th century trends were used to predict future seasonal stream temperatures. Fish growth from winter to summer was projected with temperature‐dependent models of egg development and juvenile growth. Based on temperature data from 115 sites, by mid‐21st century, the effects of climate change are projected to be mixed. Fish in warm‐region streams that are currently cooled by snow melt will grow less, and fish in suboptimally cool streams will grow more. Relative to 20th century conditions, by mid‐21st century juvenile salmonids' weights are expected to be lower in the Columbia Basin and California Central Valley, but unchanged or greater in coastal and mountain streams. Because fish weight affects fish survival, the predicted changes in weight could impact population fitness depending on other factors such as density effects, food quality and quantity changes, habitat alterations, etc. The level of year‐to‐year variability in stream temperatures is high and our analysis suggests that identifying effects of climate change over the natural variability will be difficult except in a few streams.     

Carbon–Temperature–Water change analysis for peanut production under climate change: a prototype for the AgMIP Coordinated Climate‐Crop Modeling Project (C3MP)

Climate change is projected to push the limits of cropping systems and has the potential to disrupt the agricultural sector from local to global scales. This article introduces the Coordinated Climate‐Crop Modeling Project (C3MP), an initiative of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to engage a global network of crop modelers to explore the impacts of climate change via an investigation of crop responses to changes in carbon dioxide concentration ([CO₂]), temperature, and water. As a demonstration of the C3MP protocols and enabled analyses, we apply the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) CROPGRO‐Peanut crop model for Henry County, Alabama, to evaluate responses to the range of plausible [CO₂], temperature changes, and precipitation changes projected by climate models out to the end of the 21st century. These sensitivity tests are used to derive crop model emulators that estimate changes in mean yield and the coefficient of variation for seasonal yields across a broad range of climate conditions, reproducing mean yields from sensitivity test simulations with deviations of ca. 2% for rain‐fed conditions. We apply these statistical emulators to investigate how peanuts respond to projections from various global climate models, time periods, and emissions scenarios, finding a robust projection of modest (<10%) median yield losses in the middle of the 21st century accelerating to more severe (>20%) losses and larger uncertainty at the end of the century under the more severe representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5). This projection is not substantially altered by the selection of the AgMERRA global gridded climate dataset rather than the local historical observations, differences between the Third and Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), or the use of the delta method of climate impacts analysis rather than the C3MP impacts response surface and emulator approach.     

Vulnerability of mires under climate change: implications for nature conservation and climate change adaptation

Wetlands in general and mires in particular belong to the most important terrestrial carbon stocks globally. Mires (i.e. bogs, transition bogs and fens) are assumed to be especially vulnerable to climate change because they depend on specific, namely cool and humid, climatic conditions. In this paper, we use distribution data of the nine mire types to be found in Austria and habitat distribution models for four IPCC scenarios to evaluate climate change induced risks for mire ecosystems within the 21st century. We found that climatic factors substantially contribute to explain the current distribution of all nine Austrian mire ecosystem types. Summer temperature proved to be the most important predictor for the majority of mire ecosystems. Precipitation—mostly spring and summer precipitation sums—was influential for some mire ecosystem types which depend partly or entirely on ground water supply (e.g. fens). We found severe climate change induced risks for all mire ecosystems, with rain-fed bog ecosystems being most threatened. Differences between scenarios are moderate for the mid-21st century, but become more pronounced towards the end of the 21st century, with near total loss of climate space projected for some ecosystem types (bogs, quagmires) under severe climate change. Our results imply that even under minimum expected, i.e. inevitable climate change, climatic risks for mires in Austria will be considerable. Nevertheless, the pronounced differences in projected habitat loss between moderate and severe climate change scenarios indicate that limiting future warming will likely contribute to enhance long-term survival of mire ecosystems, and to reduce future greenhouse gas emissions from decomposing peat. Effectively stopping and reversing the deterioration of mire ecosystems caused by conventional threats can be regarded as a contribution to climate change mitigation. Because hydrologically intact mires are more resilient to climatic changes, this would also maintain the nature conservation value of mires, and help to reduce the severe climatic risks to which most Austrian mire ecosystems may be exposed in the 2nd half of the 21st century according to IPCC scenarios.     

The secular trend: History and prospects

The origin of the term secular trend and the history of study of this phenomenon are analyzed. Throughout most of the 20th century, the direction of changes was the same in most countries: improvement of socioeconomic conditions was accompanied by an increase in the physical parameters of the human body, primarily, the indices of longitudinal growth. This trend has occurred in various populations, all age groups, and representatives of different sections of society. Nevertheless, although the direction of the changes has been the same, their rates have varied. During the last decades of the 20th century and in the early 21st century, opposite changes in the body sizes have been observed in some countries. The patterns and causes of these processes are discussed.     

The meagre future of benthic fauna in a coastal sea—Benthic responses to recovery from eutrophication in a changing climate

Nutrient loading and climate change affect coastal ecosystems worldwide. Unravelling the combined effects of these pressures on benthic macrofauna is essential for understanding the future functioning of coastal ecosystems, as it is an important component linking the benthic and pelagic realms. In this study, we extended an existing model of benthic macrofauna coupled with a physical–biogeochemical model of the Baltic Sea to study the combined effects of changing nutrient loads and climate on biomass and metabolism of benthic macrofauna historically and in scenarios for the future. Based on a statistical comparison with a large validation dataset of measured biomasses, the model showed good or reasonable performance across the different basins and depth strata in the model area. In scenarios with decreasing nutrient loads according to the Baltic Sea Action Plan but also with continued recent loads (mean loads 2012–2014), overall macrofaunal biomass and carbon processing were projected to decrease significantly by the end of the century despite improved oxygen conditions at the seafloor. Climate change led to intensified pelagic recycling of primary production and reduced export of particulate organic carbon to the seafloor with negative effects on macrofaunal biomass. In the high nutrient load scenario, representing the highest recorded historical loads, climate change counteracted the effects of increased productivity leading to a hyperbolic response: biomass and carbon processing increased up to mid‐21st century but then decreased, giving almost no net change by the end of the 21st century compared to present. The study shows that benthic responses to environmental change are nonlinear and partly decoupled from pelagic responses and indicates that benthic–pelagic coupling might be weaker in a warmer and less eutrophic sea.     

The history of ranges of the great tit (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Parus major</Emphasis>) and Japanese tit (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Parus minor</Emphasis>) in the Amur Region

The history of ranges of the great tit (Parus major) and Japanese tit (P. minor) in the Amur River basin is described on the basis of original data collected between 1970 and 2010 and published data. The main factor accounting for the expansion of the great and Japanese tits to the Amur basin and neighboring territories in the 19th to 21st centuries is economic activity, primarily agriculture and timber harvesting. The approximate range boundaries and the sympatry zone of these two species have been determined for the second half of the 19th century; the beginning, middle, and third quarter of the 20th century; and the turn of the 21st century. Three different ecological channels consecutively played the main role in the eastward expansion of the great tit: the Amur River valley (from the mid-19th to the early 20th century), the Trans-Siberian Railroad (since the early 20th century), and the Baikal-Amur Railroad (since the 1970s). It is shown that the concept concerning the finding of great tits in Udskii Ostrog by Middendorff’s expedition is erroneous: according to dates on the labels, the corresponding two specimens were in fact collected in a different geographic locality. It has been found that Komsomolsk-on-Amur is a new locality jointly inhabited by both species, independent of the main zone of their sympatry. It has appeared very recently, at the turn of the 21st century.     

Climate-induced long-term changes in the phenology of Mediterranean fungi

Long-term responses in the phenology of Mediterranean macrofungi to climatic changes are poorly documented. Here, we address this issue by comparing the fruiting patterns of 159 fungal species in Southern France between the first half of the 19th century and the first decade of the 21st century. We used a trait-based approach to assess the influence of phenology and morphology of fungal fruit bodies and their site ecology and biogeography on the response to climate change. We show that early autumnal fruiters, epigeous species and species with affinities for cold climates now start to fruit on average 16.4, 17.3 and 17.3 d later compared to their emergence dates in the 19th century, while late fruiters, hypogeous species and Mediterranean-restricted species did not change their fruiting date. Among ecological guilds, saproxylic species and pine-associated mutualists delayed their autumnal emergence by 32.5 and 19.2 d, likely in response to a delayed rewetting of litter and woody debris after extended summer drought. Our results suggest that long-term climate warming in the Mediterranean was accompanied by contrasting changes in the emergence of fungal fruit bodies according to ecological guilds, sporocarp life-forms and forest types.     

Interactions of temperature and nutrient changes: effects on phytoplankton in the Piburger See (Tyrol,Austria)

1. Contemporary limnological and palaeolimnological data from Piburger See (Eastern Alps, Austria) allowed the reconstruction of its trophic state since the late 19th century and the assessment of changes in phytoplankton biomass and species composition in relation to selected environmental parameters. 2. A radiometrically dated sediment core from Piburger See was analysed for geochemical parameters, spheroidal carbonaceous particles (SCPs), bacterial and algal pigments, and diatoms. The low SCP sediment inventory assigns Piburger See to the ‘cleaner’ sites in Europe with respect to fossil‐fuel related air pollution. The sedimentary pigment and diatom record reveals moderate eutrophication during the 20th century, followed by a slow re‐oligotrophication since the mid‐1980s because of lake restoration starting in 1970. 3. Epilimnetic temperature for Piburger See was reconstructed using air temperature records. A pronounced temperature increase has been recorded during the mid‐1940s and since the late‐20th century, both promoting algal growth and changes in species composition (e.g. increase in centric diatoms and recent bloom of Asterionella formosa). 4. Climate scenarios project additional substantial warming for this mountain lake by the end of the 21st century which will be most pronounced during the growing season. The predicted change in lake water temperature and thermal dynamics represents a key driver for the trophic and ecological status of Piburger See in the future.     

Water level fluctuations in Lake Baringo,Kenya, during the 19th and 20th centuries: Evidence from lake sediments

This article presents a fossil diatom-based, semi-quantitative reconstruction of water level fluctuations for Lake Baringo over the past 200 years as a consequence of climatic variations. A 285 cm long sediment core sample was collected using a Rod-Operated Single-drive Stationary Piston corer. Lake level was inferred using indices based on the proportion of planktonic to benthic diatom taxa (P/B ratio). The sediment archive presented distinct zones dominated by planktonic and benthic diatom flora. An initial transgression in the early 19th century was characterised as a shallow water environment dominated by planktonic Aulacoseira spp. This was a response to extreme drought during the late 18th to early 19th century. Mid-19th century was defined by a high lake stand. The late 19th to early 20th centuries experienced low water level following the widely documented aridity at the time. The mid-20th century was marked by a spectacular rise in water level that coincided with remarkably wet years during the early 1960s and late 1970s. The first decade of the 21st century witnessed widespread changes in water level. The proxy records show that lake ramping and drawdown over the years follow approximately 50-year climatic cycles.     

A new method for reconstructing past-climate trends using tree-ring data and kernel smoothing

Mediterranean high-relief karst areas are very vulnerable to changes in temporal patterns of precipitation and temperature. Understanding climate change in these areas requires current climate trends to be assessed within the context of the variability of rainfall and temperature trends in the recent past. A major difficulty is that the instrumental record in these high-relief areas is very limited and the use of data from paleoclimatic proxies, such as tree-ring data, is required to infer past climate variability. Furthermore, for complex relationships between tree-ring data and climatic variables, it is almost impossible to infer past inter-annual variations in temperature or precipitation, and the inference is limited to the reconstruction of low-frequency variability (i.e., the trend). To do so, in this work, we propose a new method based on detecting trends (by kernel smoothing) in tree variables that show maximum correlation with the trends (also estimated by kernel smoothing) of climate variables. This enables a standard regression framework to be established to reconstruct past climate. We have used tree-ring proxy data from Abies pinsapo to evaluate past climate trends in the Sierra de las Nieves karst massif in Southern Spain. Our analysis has found that during the last three hundred years the smoothed mean annual rainfall steadily decreased until the beginning of the 20th century and thereafter it remained more or less constant until the end of the century. On the other hand, the smoothed mean annual temperature has steadily increased since the beginning of the 18th century until recent times. These trends are also suggested by the climate projections for the latter part of the current 21st century. As the study area is a high-relief karst massif of significant hydrologic and ecologic interest, the implications of these trends should be taken into account when formulating effective action plans to mitigate the impact of climate change.     

Effects of modeled tropical sea surface temperature variability on coral reef bleaching predictions

Future widespread coral bleaching and subsequent mortality has been projected using sea surface temperature (SST) data derived from global, coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models (GCMs). While these models possess fidelity in reproducing many aspects of climate, they vary in their ability to correctly capture such parameters as the tropical ocean seasonal cycle and El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. Such weaknesses most likely reduce the accuracy of predicting coral bleaching, but little attention has been paid to the important issue of understanding potential errors and biases, the interaction of these biases with trends, and their propagation in predictions. To analyze the relative importance of various types of model errors and biases in predicting coral bleaching, various intra- and inter-annual frequency bands of observed SSTs were replaced with those frequencies from 24 GCMs 20th century simulations included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th assessment report. Subsequent thermal stress was calculated and predictions of bleaching were made. These predictions were compared with observations of coral bleaching in the period 1982–2007 to calculate accuracy using an objective measure of forecast quality, the Peirce skill score (PSS). Major findings are that: (1) predictions are most sensitive to the seasonal cycle and inter-annual variability in the ENSO 24–60 months frequency band and (2) because models tend to understate the seasonal cycle at reef locations, they systematically underestimate future bleaching. The methodology we describe can be used to improve the accuracy of bleaching predictions by characterizing the errors and uncertainties involved in the predictions.     

Thermoregulatory traits combine with range shifts to alter the future of montane ant assemblages

Predicting and understanding the biological response to future climate change is a pressing challenge for humanity. In the 21st century, many species will move into higher latitudes and higher elevations as the climate warms. In addition, the relative abundances of species within local assemblages are likely to change. Both effects have implications for how ecosystems function. Few biodiversity forecasts, however, take account of both shifting ranges and changing abundances. We provide a novel analysis predicting the potential changes to assemblage‐level relative abundances in the 21st century. We use an established relationship linking ant abundance and their colour and size traits to temperature and UV‐B to predict future abundance changes. We also predict future temperature driven range shifts and use these to alter the available species pool for our trait‐mediated abundance predictions. We do this across three continents under a low greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP2.6) and a business‐as‐usual scenario (RCP8.5). Under RCP2.6, predicted changes to ant assemblages by 2100 are moderate. On average, species richness will increase by 26%, while species composition and relative abundance structure will be 26% and 30% different, respectively, compared with modern assemblages. Under RCP8.5, however, highland assemblages face almost a tripling of species richness and compositional and relative abundance changes of 66% and 77%. Critically, we predict that future assemblages could be reorganized in terms of which species are common and which are rare: future highland assemblages will not simply comprise upslope shifts of modern lowland assemblages. These forecasts reveal the potential for radical change to montane ant assemblages by the end of the 21st century if temperature increases continue. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating trait–environment relationships into future biodiversity predictions. Looking forward, the major challenge is to understand how ecosystem processes will respond to compositional and relative abundance changes.     

Potential impact of climate change on selected agricultural crops in north-eastern Austria

The vulnerability and adaptation of major agricultural crops to various soils in north‐eastern Austria under a changing climate were investigated. The CERES crop model for winter wheat and the CROPGRO model for soybean were validated for the agrometeorological conditions in the selected region. The simulated winter wheat and soybean yields in most cases agreed with the measured data. Several incremental and transient global circulation model (GCM) climate change scenarios were created and used in the study. In these scenarios, annual temperatures in the selected region are expected to rise between 0.9 and 4.8 °C from the 2020s to the 2080s. The results show that warming will decrease the crop‐growing duration of the selected crops. For winter wheat, a gradual increase in air temperature resulted in a yield decrease. Incremental warming, especially in combination with an increase in precipitation, leads to higher soybean yield. A drier climate will reduce soybean yield, especially on soils with low water storage capacity. All transient GCM climate change scenarios for the 21st century, including the adjustment for only air temperature, precipitation and solar radiation, projected reductions of winter wheat yield. However, when the direct effect of increased levels of CO₂ concentration was assumed, all GCM climate change scenarios projected an increase in winter wheat yield in the region. The increase in simulated soybean yield for the 21st century was primarily because of the positive impact of warming and especially of the beneficial influence of the direct CO₂ effect. Changes in climate variability were found to affect winter wheat and soybean yield in various ways. Results from the adaptation assessments suggest that changes in sowing date, winter wheat and soybean cultivar selection could significantly affect crop production in the 21st century.     

Seasonal variations in the distribution and abundance of the tsetse fly,Glossina morsitans morsitans in eastern Zambia

The seasonal changes in the distribution of Glossina morsitans morsitans Westwood (Diptera: Glossinidae) and its main host, cattle, were examined in a cultivated area of the plateau of eastern Zambia. During four consecutive years, the tsetse and cattle populations were monitored along a fly-round transect traversing the two main vegetation types in the study area. These were miombo, a one-storied open woodland with the genera Brachystegia and Julbernardia dominant, and munga, a one- or two-storied woodland where the principal tree genera were Acacia, Combretum and Terminalia. Concurrently, a capture/mark/release/recapture (CMRR) exercise was conducted along two other transects also traversing both vegetation types. The index of apparent abundance of tsetse (IAA) in miombo increased at the beginning of the rainy season (November), reached its peak at the end of the rainy season (April) and was low during the cold season (May to late August), but especially the hot dry season (September to late October). The IAA of tsetse in munga showed a pattern that was the reverse of that in miombo. The seasonal changes in the IAA of tsetse in both vegetation types were in accordance with changes in the movement patterns of tsetse between the two vegetation type as observed using CMRR. The distribution and abundance of cattle along the transect also showed a seasonal trend. This was especially so in munga, during the first three years of observations, where cattle abundance increased gradually from June onwards, reached a maximum at the end of the hot dry season (October-November) and declined steeply at the start of the rainy season (November-December). In both vegetation types, the monthly mean IAA of tsetse was positively correlated with the abundance of cattle in the previous month. It is concluded that the distribution of tsetse in cultivated area of the eastern plateau of Zambia undergoes substantial seasonal changes, which can partly be attributed to changes in the distribution of cattle. The implications of these observations for the control of tsetse are discussed.     

Combined effects of global climate change and regional ecosystem drivers on an exploited marine food web

Changes in climate, in combination with intensive exploitation of marine resources, have caused large‐scale reorganizations in many of the world's marine ecosystems during the past decades. The Baltic Sea in Northern Europe is one of the systems most affected. In addition to being exposed to persistent eutrophication, intensive fishing, and one of the world's fastest rates of warming in the last two decades of the 20th century, accelerated climate change including atmospheric warming and changes in precipitation is projected for this region during the 21st century. Here, we used a new multimodel approach to project how the interaction of climate, nutrient loads, and cod fishing may affect the future of the open Central Baltic Sea food web. Regionally downscaled global climate scenarios were, in combination with three nutrient load scenarios, used to drive an ensemble of three regional biogeochemical models (BGMs). An Ecopath with Ecosim food web model was then forced with the BGM results from different nutrient‐climate scenarios in combination with two different cod fishing scenarios. The results showed that regional management is likely to play a major role in determining the future of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. By the end of the 21st century, for example, the combination of intensive cod fishing and high nutrient loads projected a strongly eutrophicated and sprat‐dominated ecosystem, whereas low cod fishing in combination with low nutrient loads resulted in a cod‐dominated ecosystem with eutrophication levels close to present. Also, nonlinearities were observed in the sensitivity of different trophic groups to nutrient loads or fishing depending on the combination of the two. Finally, many climate variables and species biomasses were projected to levels unseen in the past. Hence, the risk for ecological surprises needs to be addressed, particularly when the results are discussed in the ecosystem‐based management context.     

Changes in environmental controls on the growth of Abies alba Mill. in the Vosges Mountains, north-eastern France, during the 20th century

Aim  To analyse the radial growth of silver fir ( Abies alba Mill.) in north-eastern France in relation to soil, climate and interspecific competition factors and to check the temporal stability of their effects during the 20th century.
Location  The Vosges Mountains, located in north-eastern France.
Methods  Data were collected from 143 plots regularly distributed over three altitude ranges (from 330 to 1100 m), three humus forms (moder to mull) and seven types of stands, including a pure stand of silver fir and six mixed stands containing this species. For each plot, an index of mean radial growth of silver fir was calculated, independent of tree age and calendar year of ring formation. Relationships between radial growth and ecological factors were analysed using linear mixed-effects models.
Results  Radial growth of silver fir is low in the presence of Picea abies or of a high density of other dominant trees . Low aluminium concentration and good nitrogen supply, measured by the soil C:N ratio, are correlated with high radial growth. Water reserves, related to available water storage capacity and to lateral run-off, are also correlated with high radial growth. Analysis of environmental effects during the 20th century showed that growth was strongly correlated with nitrogen supply at the start of the century, and with aluminium toxicity and climate at the end of the century. The radial growth of trees located on sites with low nitrogen supply was lower before 1970 than that of trees located on nitrogen-rich soils. At the end of the century, radial growth of silver fir was the same for all levels of nitrogen nutrition.
Main conclusions  Our results indicate that nitrogen supply was a limiting factor for the mean radial growth of silver fir before the 1970s. Eutrophication during the 20th century may then have eliminated limitation by nitrogen.     

Ultrastructural organization of the endotheliocytes of iliac lymph node capillaries in pregnancy (morphometric study)

Using light and electron microscopy and morphometry, the morphological changes in the lymph nodes of arterial and venous parts of capillaries were studied on the 11th, 17th and 21st days of pregnancy in rats. Ultrastructural changes in endothelial cells of blood vessels in the uterine lymph nodes during normal pregnancy are of adaptive nature and are possibly responsible for the relief of the blood congestion in the system of the inferior vena cava and for the improvement of the utero-placental circulation.     

North African wetland lakes: characterization of nine sites included in the CASSARINA Project

Exploitation of land and water resources has increased rapidly in North Africa during the 20th century, paralleling regional population growth. As part of the CASSARINA Project (see Flower, 2001), the environmental status of nine wetland lakes in Morocco, Tunisia, and Egypt was evaluated. All are conservationally important habitats and several are Ramsar Sites (internationally recognized bird reserves) and several support significant fisheries. All are shallow (<2 m in depth) but vary greatly in area.Where available, documentary information on relevant 20th century changes is given. Survey transects for aquatic vegetation were established and used to provide baseline ecological information on the aquatic plant communities during 1997–1999. Unusually, one site (Tunisian Megene Chitane) supported acidophilous vegetation (some taxa being nationally rare). Aquatic macrophytes declined catastrophically at two sites during the 1990s. Merja Bokka was drained in 1998 and, at Garaet El Ichkeul, fringing Phragmites and Scirpus spp. were lost, mainly as a result of salinity changes. Elsewhere, fringing macrophytes remain (extensively so in the Nile Delta lakes) common, despite major land reclamation and water quality problems, or are degraded by grazing (Merja Zerga). Marginal vegetation during 1997/98 changed markedly at Megene Chitane due to water level lowering.Documentary records indicated that throughout the 20th century, reclamation and hydrologic modifications, mainly for agricultural purposes, affected all nine sites. The loss of lake area by reclamation is substantial for the Nile Delta lakes (Edku, Burullus and Manzala). For the western sites, some data indicate increasing salinity in the most recent decade but the Delta lakes have become generally fresher during the 20th century, as supply of Nile water for irrigation increased.Despite intense human disturbance, many of the remaining CASSARINA sites still support regions of high aquatic diversity. Spatial scale monitoring of the larger sites for seasonal and inter-annual changes in open water area and in aquatic plant abundances is a key requirement for integrated environmental change assessment in the 21st century.     

Signal molecules during the organism development: Central and peripheral sources of noradrenaline in rat ontogenesis

Using the method of high performance liquid chromatography with electrochemical detection, the age dynamics of the content of noradrenaline (NA) in the brain, adrenal gland, and the organ of Zuckerkandl in prenatal (18th and 21st days of embryogenesis) and early postnatal (3, 7, 15, and 30th days) periods of development was studied. The potential contribution of these organs to the formation of physiologically active concentration of noradrenalin in the blood was also assessed. The results suggest that, during the development of the organism, the activity of the sources of noradrenaline in the general circulation changes, which gives a reason to assume the existence of humoral interaction between NA-producing organs in the perinatal period of ontogenesis.