Spatial Models of Northern Bobwhite Populations for Conservation Planning

Abstract: Since 1980, northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) range-wide populations declined 3.9% annually. Within the West Gulf Coastal Plain Bird Conservation Region in the south-central United States, populations of this quail species have declined 6.8% annually. These declines sparked calls for land use change and prompted implementation of various conservation practices. However, to effectively reverse these declines and restore northern bobwhite to their former population levels, habitat conservation and management efforts must target establishment and maintenance of sustainable populations. To provide guidance for conservation and restoration of habitat capable of supporting sustainable northern bobwhite populations in the West Gulf Coastal Plain, we modeled their spatial distribution using landscape characteristics derived from 1992 National Land Cover Data and bird detections, from 1990 to 1994, along 10-stop Breeding Bird Survey route segments. Four landscape metrics influenced detections of northern bobwhite: detections were greater in areas with more grassland and increased aggregation of agricultural lands, but detections were reduced in areas with increased density of land cover edge and grassland edge. Using these landscape metrics, we projected the abundance and spatial distribution of northern bobwhite populations across the entire West Gulf Coastal Plain. Predicted populations closely approximated abundance estimates from a different cadre of concurrently collected data but model predictions did not accurately reflect bobwhite detections along species-specific call-count routes in Arkansas and Louisiana. Using similar methods, we also projected northern bobwhite population distribution circa 1980 based on Land Use Land Cover data and bird survey data from 1976 to 1984. We compared our 1980 spatial projections with our spatial estimate of 1992 populations to identify areas of population change. Additionally, we used our projection of the spatial distribution and abundance of bobwhite to predict areas of population sustainability. Our projections of population change and sustainability provide guidance for targeting habitat conservation and rehabilitation efforts for restoration of northern bobwhite populations in the West Gulf Coastal Plain.     

Exploring the effects of truncated,pooled and sexed data in distance sampling estimation of breeding bird abundance

Capsule Field methods used by the UK's Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) provide a practical approach to estimating breeding bird abundance and this paper discusses how they might be adapted to increase accuracy.

Aims Using Salisbury Plain as a case study, examine the use of distance sampling to produce estimates of breeding bird abundance.

Methods During 2005, 157 1 km squares were surveyed on Salisbury Plain using the UK’s BBS methods, with the exception that all birds were sexed whenever possible and allocated to one of five distance bands (0–10 m/10–25 m/25–100 m/100–250 m/ >250 m). Data were modelled to investigate the effects of truncated, pooled and sexed bird data in estimating breeding populations.

Results Pooling of the inner distance bands made little difference to estimates, while truncation over 100 m affected them by up to 25%, generally leading to an increase in density and the width of the confidence limits. The national BBS does not distinguish between bird sexes and therefore any density estimate produced relates to individuals. Our analysis suggests that halving the number of individuals (assuming an equal sex ratio) could lead to significant underestimation of population. This is particularly the case for species where there are differences in detectability between sexes or skewed sex ratios. In such cases, the density of males may represent a more accurate assessment of the population.

Conclusions Bird surveys incorporate distance sampling because it assesses changes in detection probability and this paper suggests how these methods might be adapted to increase accuracy. Changes include increasing both survey effort (e.g. number of visits or distance covered), the number of distance bands, and recording sexed bird data. Numbers of pairs or territories could then be estimated by either halving the density of individuals, or using the density of males, whichever is highest. These suggestions have not been tested against a known population and further work is desirable.     

Genetic differentiation, structure, and a transition zone among populations of the pitcher plant moth Exyra semicrocea: implications for conservation

Pitcher plant bogs, or carnivorous plant wetlands, have experienced extensive habitat loss and fragmentation throughout the southeastern United States Coastal Plain, resulting in an estimated reduction to <3% of their former range. This situation has lead to increased management attention of these habitats and their carnivorous plant species. However, conservation priorities focus primarily on the plants since little information currently exists on other community members, such as their endemic arthropod biota. Here, we investigated the population structure of one of these, the obligate pitcher plant moth Exyra semicrocea (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), using mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) gene sequences. Examination of 221 individuals from 11 populations across eight southeastern US states identified 51 unique haplotypes. These haplotypes belonged to one of two divergent (～1.9-3.0%) lineages separated by the Mississippi alluvial plain. Populations of the West Gulf Coastal Plain exhibited significant genetic structure, contrasting with similarly distanced populations east of the Mississippi alluvial plain. In the eastern portion of the Coastal Plain, an apparent transition zone exists between two regionally distinct population groups, with a well-established genetic discontinuity for other organisms coinciding with this zone. The structure of E. semicrocea appears to have been influenced by patchy pitcher plant bog habitats in the West Gulf Coastal Plain as well as impacts of Pleistocene interglacials on the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin. These findings, along with potential extirpation of E. semicrocea at four visited, but isolated, sites highlight the need to consider other endemic or associated community members when managing and restoring pitcher plant bog habitats.     

Raising the bar for the next generation of biological atlases: using existing data to inform the design and implementation of atlas monitoring

Selecting a sampling design to monitor multiple species across a broad geographical region can be a daunting task and often involves tradeoffs between limited resources and the accurate estimation of population abundance and occurrence. Since the 1950s, biological atlases have been implemented in various regions to document the occurrence of plant and animal species. As next‐generation atlases repeat original surveys, investigators often seek to raise the rigour of atlases by incorporating species abundances. We present a repeatable framework that incorporates existing monitoring data, hierarchical modelling and sampling simulations to augment existing atlas occurrence and breeding status maps with a secondary sampling of species abundances. Using existing information on three bird species with varying abundance and detectability, we evaluated several sampling scenarios for the 2nd Wisconsin Breeding Bird Atlas. In general, we found that most sampling schemes produced accurate mean statewide abundance estimates for species with medium to high abundance and detection probability, but estimates varied significantly for species with low abundance and low detection probability. Our approach provided a statewide point‐count sampling design that: provided precise and unbiased abundance estimates for species of varied prevalence and detectability; ensured suitable spatial coverage across the state and its habitats; and reduced spending on total survey costs. Our framework could benefit investigators conducting atlases and other broad‐scale avian surveys that seek to add systematic, multi‐species sampling for estimating density and abundance across broad geographical regions.     

An improved survey method for monitoring population trends of Golden‐winged Warblers and other patchily distributed birds

Conventional surveys designed to monitor common and widespread species may fail to adequately track population changes of rare or patchily distributed species that are often of high conservation concern. We evaluated the performance of a new monitoring approach that employs both a spatially balanced sampling design and a targeted survey protocol designed to estimate population trends of one such patchily distributed species, the Golden‐winged Warbler (Vermivora chrysoptera), in the Appalachian Mountains Bird Conservation Region (BCR 28), USA. Our spatially balanced survey consisted of 105 sample quads (one‐quarter Delorme Atlas pages) across the current range of Golden‐winged Warblers within BCR 28, each with five sample points located in early successional habitat. From 2009 to 2013, collaborators visited each sample point once per year during the peak breeding season and conducted a 17‐min survey consisting of passive observation and playback of conspecific songs and mobbing vocalizations. We used multi‐season, single‐species occupancy models to estimate probability of quad occupancy, detection probability, and occupancy dynamics for Golden‐winged Warblers and closely related Blue‐winged Warblers (Vermivora cyanoptera). Our survey protocol resulted in high estimates of detection probability for Golden‐winged (92%) and Blue‐winged (79%) warblers, with 47% and 56% of quads estimated to be initially occupied, respectively. Derived population trend estimates (λ) indicated an average decline in population of 6% for Golden‐winged Warblers and 7% for Blue‐winged Warblers, resulting in estimated 21% and 22% declines, respectively, in quad occupancy after 5 yr. Our results demonstrate that coupling a spatially balanced survey design in appropriate habitat with a playback protocol to increase detection rates is a viable strategy for tracking populations of Golden‐winged Warblers in the Appalachian Mountains BCR. Similar survey methods should be considered for other rare, declining, or patchily distributed bird species that require targeted monitoring.     

Observer aging and long‐term avian survey data quality

Long‐term wildlife monitoring involves collecting time series data, often using the same observers over multiple years. Aging‐related changes to these observers may be an important, under‐recognized source of error that can bias management decisions. In this study, we used data from two large, independent bird surveys, the Atlas of the Breeding Birds of Ontario (“OBBA”) and the North American Breeding Bird Survey (“BBS”), to test for age‐related observer effects in long‐term time series of avian presence and abundance. We then considered the effect of such aging phenomena on current population trend estimates. We found significantly fewer detections among older versus younger observers for 13 of 43 OBBA species, and declines in detection as an observer ages for 4 of 6 vocalization groups comprising 59 of 64 BBS species. Consistent with hearing loss influencing this pattern, we also found evidence for increasingly severe detection declines with increasing call frequency among nine high‐pitched bird species (OBBA); however, there were also detection declines at other frequencies, suggesting important additional effects of aging, independent of hearing loss. We lastly found subtle, significant relationships between some species' published population trend estimates and (1) their corresponding vocalization frequency (n ≥ 22 species) and (2) their estimated declines in detectability among older observers (n = 9 high‐frequency, monotone species), suggesting that observer aging can negatively bias long‐term monitoring data for some species in part through hearing loss effects. We recommend that survey designers and modelers account for observer age where possible.     

The use of infrared‐triggered cameras for surveying phasianids in Sichuan Province,China

We report on the use of infrared‐triggered cameras as an effective tool to survey phasianid populations in Wanglang and Wolong Nature Reserves, China. Surveys at 183 camera‐trapping sites recorded 30 bird species, including nine phasianids (one grouse and eight pheasant species). Blood Pheasant Ithaginis cruentus and Temminck’s Tragopan Tragopan temminckii were the phasianids most often detected at both reserves and were found within the mid‐elevation range (2400–3600 m asl). The occupancy rate and detection probability of both species were examined using an occupancy model relative to eight sampling covariates and three detection covariates. The model estimates of occupancy for Blood Pheasant (0.30) and Temminck’s Tragopan (0.14) are close to the naïve estimates based on camera detections (0.27 and 0.13, respectively). The estimated detection probability during a 5‐day period was 0.36 for Blood Pheasant and 0.30 for Temminck’s Tragopan. The daily activity patterns for these two species were assessed from the time/date stamps on the photographs and sex ratios calculated for Blood Pheasant (152M : 72F) and Temminck’s Tragopan (48M : 21F). Infrared cameras are valuable for surveying these reclusive species and our protocol is applicable to research or monitoring of phasianids.     

Comparative dynamics of avian communities across edges and interiors of North American ecoregions

Aim Based on a priori hypotheses, we developed predictions about how avian communities might differ at the edges vs. interiors of ecoregions. Specifically, we predicted lower species richness and greater local turnover and extinction probabilities for regional edges. We tested these predictions using North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data across nine ecoregions over a 20‐year time period. Location Data from 2238 BBS routes within nine ecoregions of the United States were used. Methods The estimation methods used accounted for species detection probabilities < 1. Parameter estimates for species richness, local turnover and extinction probabilities were obtained using the program COMDYN. We examined the difference in community‐level parameters estimated from within exterior edges (the habitat interface between ecoregions), interior edges (the habitat interface between two bird conservation regions within the same ecoregion) and interior (habitat excluding interfaces). General linear models were constructed to examine sources of variation in community parameters for five ecoregions (containing all three habitat types) and all nine ecoregions (containing two habitat types). Results Analyses provided evidence that interior habitats and interior edges had on average higher bird species richness than exterior edges, providing some evidence of reduced species richness near habitat edges. Lower average extinction probabilities and turnover rates in interior habitats (five‐region analysis) provided some support for our predictions about these quantities. However, analyses directed at all three response variables, i.e. species richness, local turnover, and local extinction probability, provided evidence of an interaction between habitat and region, indicating that the relationships did not hold in all regions. Main conclusions The overall predictions of lower species richness, higher local turnover and extinction probabilities in regional edge habitats, as opposed to interior habitats, were generally supported. However, these predicted tendencies did not hold in all regions.     

Detection probability of Golden-winged Warblers during point counts with and without playback recordings

ABSTRACT Use of point‐count data to estimate population sizes of North American landbirds may be challenged by limitations on detection probability of particular species, thereby requiring correction factors to ensure accurate estimates. We estimated detection probability of Golden‐winged Warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera) during 3‐min point‐count surveys conducted both with and without use of playback recordings in a mixed shrubland‐forest habitat (clearcut area) and a 60‐m wide electric transmission line right‐of‐way (ROW) in central Pennsylvania from 20 May to 17 June 2002–2003. In addition, we assessed the value of playback with respect to response rates of warblers and distance within which warblers approached the observer. Without playback, detection probability was approximately 23% in the clearcut area and 61% in the ROW. Use of playback resulted in 7% and 19% net increases in probability at the clearcut area and the ROW, respectively; proportional increase was approximately 30% for both habitats. Warblers responded to playback 68% of the time, but response rate was greater within 100 m (72%) than beyond (53%). Most responses (85%) included approach of the warbler toward the observer, and most individuals approached within 10 m. We conclude that 3‐min point counts with playback do not yield detection probabilities sufficient to estimate population size of Golden‐winged Warblers without use of correction factors. Furthermore, detection probability in mixed shrubland‐forest habitats can be much lower than in linear habitats such as utility ROWs. Efforts to estimate population size of Golden‐winged Warblers from data of the North American Breeding Bird Survey should recognize that habitat structure has much influence on detection probability as it relates to distance at which an observer can hear (or see) warblers. Accordingly, we recommend that such efforts incorporate a maximum detection distance of 100–150 m in mixed shrubland‐forest habitats.     

Comparison of audio recording system performance for detecting and monitoring songbirds

ABSTRACT Acoustic recording systems are being used more frequently to estimate habitat occupancy or relative abundance, and to monitor population trends over time. A potential concern with digital recording systems is that changes in technology could affect detectability of birds and cause bias in trend estimates based on counts of birds detected. We evaluated several currently available commercial recording systems ranging from low‐cost multipurpose digital recorders to custom‐designed wildlife recorders (US$250–$7000 price range) to examine possible differences among systems in species detection. We made recordings during Breeding Bird Surveys (BBS) counts using several units concurrently, and asked several expert birders to listen to the recordings in a factorial design. We found that birders detected, on average, 10% fewer species on some units compared to others, though there was high variance. Analysis of a subset of recordings, using spectrograms and repeated listening, suggested that ～90% of species on each BBS stop could be clearly detected on all units. The remaining species could be identified on at least one unit, but were hard or impossible to detect on others. We found that the recording unit with the lowest empirical signal‐to‐noise‐ratio (SNR) had the lowest number of birds detected on the BBS recordings, and that frequency‐specific SNR differed among units. Missed detections were likely related to variation in internal noise and frequency‐dependent sensitivity of the units, and were an issue for all systems regardless of price. We caution that researchers using recorders need to consider variation among recording systems in their study design, particularly for long‐term monitoring programs.     

Evaluating food availability and nest predation risk as sources of bias in aural bird surveys

ABSTRACT The use of aural surveys to estimate population parameters is widespread in avian studies. Despite efforts to increase the efficacy of this method, the potential for ecological context to bias population estimates remains largely unexplored. For example, food availability and nest predation risk can influence singing activity independent of density and, therefore, may bias aural estimates where these ecological factors vary systematically among habitats or other categories of ecological interest. We used a natural fire event in a mixed‐conifer forest that experienced variation in fire severity (low, intermediate, and high) to determine if aural surveys produce accurate density estimates of Dark‐eyed Juncos ( Junco hyemalis) independent of ecological context. During the first 2‐yr postfire, we censused junco populations in each burn type with intensive spot‐mapping and nest searching, locating 168 nests. Simultaneously, we conducted fixed‐radius point‐count surveys and estimated food availability and nest predation risk in each burn type to test whether ecological context may influence aural detection probability independent of actual density. We found no difference in nesting densities among patches burned at different severity. Arthropod food availability was inversely related to fire severity during the first postfire breeding season, but increased to higher levels across all severities during the second. In both years, aural detections were significantly greater in intermediate severity patches that consistently represented the habitat with the lowest nest predation risk. These results suggest that nest predation risk may significantly bias aural estimates of avian populations. Although traditional aural survey methods such as the Breeding Bird Survey measure habitat attributes, our findings highlight the difficulty in assessing relevant covariates in estimates of avian population. Future research must consider the potential for nest predation and other ecological factors to drive interannual or interhabitat variation in avian population estimates independent of true changes in population size.     

Assessing Ecoregional-Scale Habitat Suitability Index Models for Priority Landbirds

ABSTRACT Emerging methods in habitat and wildlife population modeling promise new horizons in conservation but only if these methods provide robust population-habitat linkages. We used Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data to verify and validate newly developed habitat suitability index (HSI) models for 40 priority landbird species in the Central Hardwoods and West Gulf Coastal Plain/Ouachitas Bird Conservation Regions. We considered a species’ HSI model verified if there was a significant rank correlation between mean predicted HSI score and mean observed BBS abundance across the 88 ecological subsections within these Bird Conservation Regions. When we included all subsections, correlations verified 37 models. Models for 3 species were unverified. Rank correlations for an additional 5 species were not significant when analyses included only subsections with BBS abundance >0. To validate models, we developed generalized linear models with mean observed BBS abundance as the response variable and mean HSI score and Bird Conservation Region as predictor variables. We considered verified models validated if the overall model was an improvement over an intercept-only null model and the coefficient on the HSI variable in the model was >0. Validation provided a more rigorous assessment of model performance than verification, and models for 12 species that we verified failed validation. Species whose models failed validation were either poorly sampled by BBS protocols or associated with woodland and shrubland habitats embedded within predominantly open landscapes. We validated models for 25 species. Habitat specialists and species reaching their highest densities in predominantly forested landscapes were more likely to have validated models. In their current form, validated models are useful for conservation planning of priority landbirds and offer both insight into limiting factors at ecoregional scales and a framework for monitoring priority landbird populations from readily available national data sets.     

Comparison of Methods for Estimating Bird Abundance and Trends From Historical Count Data

Abstract: The use of bird counts as indices has come under increasing scrutiny because assumptions concerning detection probabilities may not be met, but there also seems to be some resistance to use of model-based approaches to estimating abundance. We used data from the United States Forest Service, Southern Region bird monitoring program to compare several common approaches for estimating annual abundance or indices and population trends from point-count data. We compared indices of abundance estimated as annual means of counts and from a mixed-Poisson model to abundance estimates from a count-removal model with 3 time intervals and a distance model with 3 distance bands. We compared trend estimates calculated from an autoregressive, exponential model fit to annual abundance estimates from the above methods and also by estimating trend directly by treating year as a continuous covariate in the mixed-Poisson model. We produced estimates for 6 forest songbirds based on an average of 621 and 459 points in 2 physiographic areas from 1997 to 2004. There was strong evidence that detection probabilities varied among species and years. Nevertheless, there was good overall agreement across trend estimates from the 5 methods for 9 of 12 comparisons. In 3 of 12 comparisons, however, patterns in detection probabilities potentially confounded interpretation of uncorrected counts. Estimates of detection probabilities differed greatly between removal and distance models, likely because the methods estimated different components of detection probability and the data collection was not optimally designed for either method. Given that detection probabilities often vary among species, years, and observers investigators should address detection probability in their surveys, whether it be by estimation of probability of detection and abundance, estimation of effects of key covariates when modeling count as an index of abundance, or through design-based methods to standardize these effects.     

Expanding northward: influence of climate change,forest connectivity,and population processes on a threatened species' range shift

Species' ranges are dynamic, shifting in response to a large number of interrelated ecological and anthropogenic processes. Climate change is thought to be one of the most influential drivers of range shifts, but the effects of other confounded ecological processes are often ignored even though these processes may modify expected range responses to climate change. To determine the relative effects of climate, forest availability, connectivity, and biotic processes such as immigration and establishment, we examine range changes occurring in a species of bird, the Hooded Warbler (Wilsonia citrina). We focus predominantly on the periphery of the species' northern range in Canada but we also examine data from the entire species' range. Nesting records in southern Ontario were obtained from two breeding bird Atlases of Ontario separated by a period of 20 years (1981–1985 and 2001–2005), and the rate of range expansion was estimated by comparing the number of occupied areas in each Atlas. Twelve hypotheses of the relationship between the rate of range expansion and factors known to influence range change were examined using model‐selection techniques and a mixed modeling approach (zero‐inflated Poisson's regression). Cooler temperatures were positively related to a lack of range expansion indicating that climate constrained the species' distribution. Establishment probability (based on the number of occupied, neighboring Atlas squares) and immigration from populations to the south (estimated using independent data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey) were also important predictors of range expansion. These biotic process variables can mask the effects of forest availability and connectivity on range expansion. Expansion due to climate change may be slower in fragmented systems, but the rate of expansion will be influenced largely by biotic processes such as proximity to neighboring populations.     

Strengths and weaknesses of museum and national survey data sets for predicting regional species richness: comparative and combined approaches

We compiled three independent data sets of bird species occurrences in northeastern Colorado to test how predicted species richness compared to a combined analysis using all the data. The first data set was a georeferenced regional museum data set from two major repositories — the Denver Museum of Nature, and the Science and University of Colorado Museum. The two national survey data sets were the Breeding Bird Survey (summer), and the Great Backyard Bird Count (winter). Resulting analyses show that the museum data sets give richness estimates closest to the combined data set while exhibiting a skewed abundance distribution, whereas survey data sets do not accurately estimate overall richness even though they contain far more records. The combined data set allows the strengths of one data set to augment weaknesses in others. It is likely some museum data sets display skewed abundance distributions due to collectors’ potentially self‐selecting under‐represented species over common ones.     

Using soundscape recordings to estimate bird species abundance, richness, and composition

ABSTRACT Point counts are the most frequently used technique for sampling bird populations and communities, but have well‐known limitations such as inter‐ and intraobserver errors and limited availability of expert field observers. The use of acoustic recordings to survey birds offers solutions to these limitations. We designed a Soundscape Recording System (SRS) that combines a four‐channel, discrete microphone system with a quadraphonic playback system for surveying bird communities. We compared the effectiveness of SRS and point counts for estimating species abundance, richness, and composition of riparian breeding birds in California by comparing data collected simultaneously using both methods. We used the temporal‐removal method to estimate individual bird detection probabilities and species abundances using the program MARK. Akaike's Information Criterion provided strong evidence that detection probabilities differed between the two survey methods and among the 10 most common species. The probability of detecting birds was higher when listening to SRS recordings in the laboratory than during the field survey. Additionally, SRS data demonstrated a better fit to the temporal‐removal model assumptions and yielded more reliable estimates of detection probability and abundance than point‐count data. Our results demonstrate how the perceptual constraints of observers can affect temporal detection patterns during point counts and thus influence abundance estimates derived from time‐of‐detection approaches. We used a closed‐population capture–recapture approach to calculate jackknife estimates of species richness and average species detection probabilities for SRS and point counts using the program CAPTURE. SRS and point counts had similar species richness and detection probabilities. However, the methods differed in the composition of species detected based on Jaccard's similarity index. Most individuals (83%) detected during point counts vocalized at least once during the survey period and were available for detection using a purely acoustic technique, such as SRS. SRS provides an effective method for surveying bird communities, particularly when most species are detected by sound. SRS can eliminate or minimize observer biases, produce permanent records of surveys, and resolve problems associated with the limited availability of expert field observers.     

Mountain Plovers in Oklahoma: distribution, abundance, and habitat use

ABSTRACT.   Mountain Plover ( Charadrius montanus ) populations are inefficiently sampled by Breeding Bird Surveys. As a result, targeted sampling of select populations of this species (with an estimated global population of 11,000–14,000 birds) can be valuable. Our objectives were to determine the breeding distribution and estimate the size of the Mountain Plover population in Oklahoma. We conducted a randomized point count survey in an area where Mountain Plovers were previously known to breed and conducted additional surveys over a larger area to better delimit the distribution. We used a removal model to estimate detection probability for raw counts obtained from 1104 point counts in 2004 and 2005, and derived a state-level population estimate using the detection-adjusted counts. Mountain Plovers used flat, bare, cultivated fields for nesting, and their distribution was closely tied to the presence of clay loam soils. We estimated that at least 68–91 Mountain Plovers bred in Oklahoma in 2004–2005. The low breeding density we observed may be due to the location of our study area near the southeastern edge of the breeding range of these plovers, the low-quality habitat provided by cultivated landscapes, or a combination of factors. Because the number of birds is small, the status of the Oklahoma population is not likely to have a large effect on the global population. However, additional information is needed to help determine if cultivated landscapes represented population sources or sinks.     

Monitoring of the Flat-Tailed Horned Lizard With Methods Incorporating Detection Probability

Abstract: Difficulty in monitoring the flat-tailed horned lizard (Phrynosoma mcallii) has led to controversy over its conservation status. The difficulty in detecting this species has discouraged large-scale estimates of abundance and led to uncertainty over whether the species exists in population sizes of sufficient size for long-term persistence. We incorporated detection probability into monitoring of this species using closed mark—recapture and distance-sampling methods. Density estimation from mark—recapture abundance estimates was improved using an estimate of the proportion of time lizards were on the plot. We estimated the probability of detection on the line for distance sampling and adjusted density estimates accordingly. We estimated the populations of the Yuha Basin Management Area in 2002 and the East Mesa Management Area, Imperial County, California, USA, in 2003 to be 25,514 (95% CI 14,444-38,970) and 42,619 (95% CI 23,161-67,639), respectively. Two estimates of detection probability on the line in distance sampling by different methods were 0.45 and 0.65. Density estimates derived from distance analyses for 3 East Mesa Management Area plots and the Yuha Basin Management Area were 1.55 per ha (95% CI 0.64-3.76) and 0.41 per ha (95% CI 0.22-0.7), respectively. These are the first large-scale estimates of abundance and density for P. mcallii.     

Spatial and temporal variation in population trends in a long‐distance migratory bird

Aim Over the past three decades, evidence has been growing that many Afro‐Palaearctic migratory bird populations have suffered sustained and severe declines. As causes of these declines exist across both the breeding and non‐breeding season, identifying potential drivers of population change is complex. In order to explore the roles of changes in regional and local environmental conditions on population change, we examine spatial and temporal variation in population trajectories of one of Europe’s most abundant Afro‐Palaearctic summer migrants, the willow warbler, Phylloscopus trochilus. Location Britain and Ireland. Methods We use national survey data from Britain and Ireland (BBS: BTO/RSPB/JNCC Breeding Bird Survey and CBS: BWI/NPWS/Heritage Council Countryside Breeding Survey) from 1994 to 2006 to model the spatial and temporal variation in willow warbler population trends. Results Across Britain and Ireland, population trends follow a gradient from sharp declines in the south and east of England to shallow declines and/or slight increases in parts of north and west England, across Scotland and Ireland. Decreasing the spatial scale of analysis reveals variation in both the rate and spatial extent of population change within central England and the majority of Scotland. The rates of population change also vary temporally; declines in the south of England are shallower now than at the start of the time series, whereas populations further north in Britain have undergone periods of increase and decline. Main conclusion These patterns suggest that regional‐scale drivers, such as changing climatic conditions, and local‐scale processes, such as habitat change, are interacting to produce spatially variable population trends. We discuss the potential mechanisms underlying these interactions and the challenges in addressing such changes at scales relevant to migratory species.     

Power to detect trends in abundance of secretive marsh birds: Effects of species traits and sampling effort

Standardized protocols for surveying secretive marsh birds have been implemented across North America, but the efficacy of surveys to detect population trends has not been evaluated. We used survey data collected from populations of marsh birds across North America and simulations to explore how characteristics of bird populations (proportion of survey stations occupied, abundance at occupied stations, and detection probability) and aspects of sampling effort (numbers of survey routes, stations/route, and surveys/station/year) affect statistical power to detect trends in abundance of marsh bird populations. In general, the proportion of survey stations along a route occupied by a species had a greater relative effect on power to detect trends than did the number of birds detected per survey at occupied stations. Uncertainty introduced by imperfect detection during surveys reduced power to detect trends considerably, but across the range of detection probabilities for most species of marsh birds, variation in detection probability had only a minor influence on power. For species that occupy a relatively high proportion of survey stations (0.20), have relatively high abundances at occupied stations (2.0 birds/station), and have high detection probability (0.50), ≥40 routes with 10 survey stations per route surveyed 3 times per year would provide an 80% chance of detecting a 3% annual decrease in abundance after 20 years of surveys. Under the same assumptions but for species that are less common, ≥100 routes would be needed to achieve the same power. Our results can help inform the design of programs to monitor trends in abundance of marsh bird populations, especially with regards to the amount of sampling effort necessary to meet programmatic goals. © 2013 The Wildlife Society