Implications of BSE infection screening data for the scale of the British BSE epidemic and current European infection levels

The incidence of confirmed clinical cases of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Great Britain continues to decline, but the recent discovery of cases in previously unaffected countries (including Israel, Japan, Poland, Slovenia and Spain) has heightened concerns that BSE transmission was more intense and widespread than previously thought. We use back-calculation methods to undertake an integrated analysis of data on infection prevalence in apparently healthy cattle and the incidence of confirmed clinical disease. The results indicate substantial underascertainment of clinical cases over the course of the British epidemic, and consequently that two- to fourfold more animals were infected than previously estimated. Upper bounds on the predicted size of the new variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (vCJD) epidemic are unaffected, as the prediction methods employed fit to observed vCJD mortality data, and are not sensitive to estimates of the absolute magnitude of past human exposure to BSE-infected cattle, only to relative changes in exposure through time. We also estimate the per-head incidence of infection in cattle born between 1993 and 1997 in other European Union countries, using data on the testing of apparently healthy cattle slaughtered for consumption. Infection incidence for cattle born after mid-1996 was highest in Greece, Italy and Belgium, with Spain and The Netherlands having intermediate levels, and estimates for Great Britain, Germany and France being comparably low.     

Modelling studies on bovine spongiform encephalopathy occurrence to assist in the review of the over 30 months rule in Great Britain

The objective of this study was to contribute to a risk assessment to review the over 30 months (OTM) scheme in cattle, whereby all cattle aged over 30 months slaughtered in the UK are removed from the human food chain. We use back-calculation methods to estimate the impact of changes to the OTM rule, by using passive and active surveillance data collected between 1 July 2001 and 30 June 2002. There are two types of change considered: increasing the age limit and allowing animals born after a certain date into the food chain. Results indicate that under the OTM rule less than 1 animal in the last 12 months of the incubation period would enter the food chain in 2003. The birth date changes considered and small changes to the upper age limit would increase this number by a relatively small amount.     

Safety of milk and milk derivatives in relation to BSE: the lactoferrin example

Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) belongs to Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathies (TSEs) or Prion diseases. BSE is a feed borne infection of cattle. Epidemiological and laboratory data suggest that the BSE infectious agent is responsible for the variant form of Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (vCJD) and that the oral route is the most plausible way of infection. Therefore there is concern that the BSE agent can be transmitted to humans by biological materials (i.e. meat products, blood, milk) from susceptible BSE animal species (mostly cows but possibly, sheep and goats). Lactoferrin (LF) can be produced by purification from large volumes of cow's milk or whey. Therefore, a potential BSE risk for milk and milk products needs to be evaluated by risk assessment. The Committee for proprietary Medicinal Products--CPMP of the European Commission and the WHO have categorized risk tissues from TSE susceptible ruminant species in different classes in relation to the BSE risk for medicinal products. Milk, colostrum, and tissues of the mammary gland have been classified in the category of no detectable infectivity. A secondary contamination of milk can be virtually excluded (i.e. milk is taken from living animals). In the light of current scientific knowledge and irrespective of the geographical origin, milk and milk derivatives (e.g. lactoferrin, lactose) are unlikely to present any risk of TSE contamination provided that milk is sourced from healthy animals in the same conditions as milk collected from human consumption. So the risk of milk and milk derivatives in relation to BSE is negligible.     

Sheep and goat BSE propagate more efficiently than cattle BSE in human PrP transgenic mice

A new variant of Creutzfeldt Jacob Disease (vCJD) was identified in humans and linked to the consumption of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE)-infected meat products. Recycling of ruminant tissue in meat and bone meal (MBM) has been proposed as origin of the BSE epidemic. During this epidemic, sheep and goats have been exposed to BSE-contaminated MBM. It is well known that sheep can be experimentally infected with BSE and two field BSE-like cases have been reported in goats. In this work we evaluated the human susceptibility to small ruminants-passaged BSE prions by inoculating two different transgenic mouse lines expressing the methionine (Met) allele of human PrP at codon 129 (tg650 and tg340) with several sheep and goat BSE isolates and compared their transmission characteristics with those of cattle BSE. While the molecular and neuropathological transmission features were undistinguishable and similar to those obtained after transmission of vCJD in both transgenic mouse lines, sheep and goat BSE isolates showed higher transmission efficiency on serial passaging compared to cattle BSE. We found that this higher transmission efficiency was strongly influenced by the ovine PrP sequence, rather than by other host species-specific factors. Although extrapolation of results from prion transmission studies by using transgenic mice has to be done very carefully, especially when human susceptibility to prions is analyzed, our results clearly indicate that Met129 homozygous individuals might be susceptible to a sheep or goat BSE agent at a higher degree than to cattle BSE, and that these agents might transmit with molecular and neuropathological properties indistinguishable from those of vCJD. Our results suggest that the possibility of a small ruminant BSE prion as vCJD causal agent could not be ruled out, and that the risk for humans of a potential goat and/or sheep BSE agent should not be underestimated.     

Long-term subclinical carrier state precedes scrapie replication and adaptation in a resistant species: analogies to bovine spongiform encephalopathy and variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in humans

Cattle infected with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) appear to be a reservoir for transmission of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) to humans. Although just over 100 people have developed clinical vCJD, millions have probably been exposed to the infectivity by consumption of BSE-infected beef. It is currently not known whether some of these individuals will develop disease themselves or act as asymptomatic carriers of infectivity which might infect others in the future. We have studied agent persistence and adaptation after cross-species infection using a model of mice inoculated with hamster scrapie strain 263K. Although mice inoculated with hamster scrapie do not develop clinical disease after inoculation with 10 million hamster infectious doses, hamster scrapie infectivity persists in brain and spleen for the life span of the mice. In the present study, we were surprised to find a 1-year period postinfection with hamster scrapie where there was no evidence for replication of infectivity in mouse brain. In contrast, this period of inactive persistence was followed by a period of active replication of infectivity as well as adaptation of new strains of agent capable of causing disease in mice. In most mice, neither the early persistent phase nor the later replicative phase could be detected by immunoblot assay for protease-resistant prion protein (PrP). If similar asymptomatic carriers of infection arise after exposure of humans or animals to BSE, this could markedly increase the danger of additional spread of BSE or vCJD infection by contaminated blood, surgical instruments, or meat. If such subclinical carriers were negative for protease-resistant PrP, similar to our mice, then the recently proposed screening of brain, tonsils, or other tissues of animals and humans by present methods such as immunoblotting or immunohistochemistry might be too insensitive to identify these individuals.     

Impact of vCJD on blood supply.

Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) is an at present inevitably lethal neurodegenerative disease which can only be diagnosed definitely post mortem. The majority of the approximately 200 victims to date have resided in the UK where most contaminated beef materials entered the food chain. Three cases in the UK demonstrated that vCJD can be transmitted by blood transfusion. Since BSE and vCJD have spread to several countries outside the UK, it appears advisable that specific risk assessments be carried out in different countries and geographic areas. This review explains the approach adopted by Germany in assessing the risk and considering precautionary measures. A fundamental premise is that the feeding chain of cattle and the food chain have been successfully and permanently cleared from contaminated material. This raises the question of whether transmissions via blood transfusions could have the potential to perpetuate vCJD in mankind. A model calculation based on actual population data showed, however, that this would not be the case. Moreover, an exclusion of transfusion recipients from blood donation would add very little to the safety of blood transfusions, but would have a considerable impact on blood supply. Therefore, an exclusion of transfusion recipients was not recommended in Germany.     

Impacts and concerns for vCJD in blood transfusion: current status

The impact of vCJD upon blood transfusion practice hinges on its lymphoreticular involvement. B lymphocytes play a key supporting role for the capture and replication of infectivity by follicular dendritic cells of the lymphoid tissue in animal models of transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSE) and tonsils, spleen and appendix in man can harbour vCJD infectivity, a situation not seen with the other human TSEs. Leucodepletion of blood donations in the UK was implemented to reduce possible vCJD transmission and preliminary data suggests that white cell associated infectivity will be effectively removed although plasma infectivity will not. Blood screening assays are under development but none yet are ready for application. The conformation dependant immunoassay, based on differences in secondary and tertiary structure between normal and TSE-associated abnormal prion protein, has a sensitivity now approaching the best bioassay. Even so further development is needed to detect the fg/ml levels likely in the event that vCJD blood does contain abnormal prion, which is as yet unproven. Surrogate assays, such as for erythroid associated factor, may provide additional means of identifying donors harbouring vCJD. Validation of clearance of TSEs from pooled plasma products consistently demonstrates effective removal of the agents in downscaled systems and studies comparing vCJD, BSE and scrapie agents yield similar results. Many approaches to therapy are under investigation, in cell culture and animal models, targeted to normal or abnormal prion metabolism, including chemical and immunological interventions. Efficacy of quinacrine/chlorpromazine and pentosan polysulphate in a clinical setting, and agents yet to be used, will be more accurately known following recent agreement of clinical drug evaluation protocols.     

Human Risks from the Combustion of SRM-Derived Tallow in Ireland

The identification of meat and bone meal (MBM) as a significant factor in the spread of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) has resulted in the introduction of restrictions on the use and movement of MBM and tallow. This has led to a requirement for alternative uses for these products. This paper reports on a risk assessment performed on the use of tallow as a fuel oil extender in diesel engines. With up to 4000 tonnes of tallow being produced each year in Ireland, combustion with energy recovery represents a viable, cost-efficient utilization route. A stochastic (Latin Hypercube sampling) simulation model was developed to assess the infectiv-ity risk to humans associated with potential airborne exposure to the combustion products when using tallow as a combustion fuel in diesel engines. The model simulates the potential infectivity pathways that tallow follows, including its production from animals with potentially subclinical BSE and processing the tallow with segregation and heat treatments. The model uses probability distributions for the most important input parameters. The assessment takes into account a number of epidemiological parameters that include tissue infectivity, species barrier, disease incidence, and heat inactivation. Two scenarios, reflecting the infectivity risk in different animal tissues defined by the European Commissions Scientific Steering Committee (SSC), were performed. It is seen from the model results that the risk of a human contracting variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (vCJD) from potential airborne exposure to BSE, resulting from the combustion of tallow, is extremely small even when model uncertainty is taken into account (mean individual risk values ranging from 10^-11.43 to 10^-7.23 per year/person). The risks are a number of orders of magnitude less than the sporadic annual incidence level of Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease 9CJD) in Europe (approximately 10^-6)     

Prion Infectivity in Fat of Deer with Chronic Wasting Disease

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a neurodegenerative prion disease of cervids. Some animal prion diseases, such as bovine spongiform encephalopathy, can infect humans; however, human susceptibility to CWD is unknown. In ruminants, prion infectivity is found in central nervous system and lymphoid tissues, with smaller amounts in intestine and muscle. In mice, prion infectivity was recently detected in fat. Since ruminant fat is consumed by humans and fed to animals, we determined infectivity titers in fat from two CWD-infected deer. Deer fat devoid of muscle contained low levels of CWD infectivity and might be a risk factor for prion infection of other species.Prion diseases are fatal neurodegenerative diseases that include Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in humans, bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in cattle, scrapie in sheep, and chronic wasting disease (CWD) in cervids. Cross-species prion infection can occur and is responsible for the spread of BSE to humans (2). Since spread is likely due to exposure to infected tissues, it is vital to know which tissues contain infectivity. In animals such as cattle, sheep, and cervids, whose tissues are part of both the human and domestic-animal food chains, the central nervous system (CNS) has the highest propensity for infectivity. Lymphoid organs and muscles can also be positive for the disease agent, but this varies among species (1, 4, 7). We recently found prion infectivity in brown and white fat of scrapie agent-infected mice (13) and wanted to determine if fat from animals actually consumed by humans may also carry infectivity. To answer this question, we inoculated fat from two CWD agent-infected deer into susceptible transgenic mice expressing deer prion protein (TgDeerPrP mouse) (10).     

Increased susceptibility of human-PrP transgenic mice to bovine spongiform encephalopathy infection following passage in sheep

The risk of the transmission of ruminant transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) to humans was thought to be low due to the lack of association between sheep scrapie and the incidence of human TSE. However, a single TSE agent strain has been shown to cause both bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and human vCJD, indicating that some ruminant TSEs are transmissible to humans. While the transmission of cattle BSE to humans in transgenic mouse models has been inefficient, indicating the presence of a significant transmission barrier between cattle and humans, BSE has been transmitted to a number of other species. Here, we aimed to further investigate the human transmission barrier following the passage of BSE in a sheep. Following inoculation with cattle BSE, gene-targeted transgenic mice expressing human PrP showed no clinical or pathological signs of TSE disease. However, following inoculation with an isolate of BSE that had been passaged through a sheep, TSE-associated vacuolation and proteinase K-resistant PrP deposition were observed in mice homozygous for the codon 129-methionine PRNP gene. This observation may be due to higher titers of the BSE agent in sheep or an increased susceptibility of humans to BSE prions following passage through a sheep. However, these data confirm that, contrary to previous predictions, it is possible that a sheep prion is transmissible to humans and that BSE from other species is a public health risk.     

Prions: where do we stand 20 years after the appearance of bovine spongiform encephalopathy?

Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) is a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) identified twenty years ago in the British cattle herds. Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) is a TSE that occurs in humans. In 1996, scientists found a possible link between BSE and a new variant of CJD (vCJD). The fact that the non conventional infectious agent of TSE, named prions, could cross the species barrier from cattle to human through meat consumption, raised a tremendous concern for public safety in Europe. This led to the development in the following two decades of substantial and expensive measures to contain BSE and prevent its transmission to humans. In parallel, scientific programs have been funded to progress through the comprehension of the physiopathology of these fatal disorders. In Europe, the BSE epidemics is now ending and the number of cases is decreasing thanks to the strict control of animal foodstuff that was the main source of prion contamination. Only a small number of vCJD have been detected, however, additional concerns have been raised recently for public safety as secondary transmission of CJD through medical procedure and blood transfusion is possible. In addition, the possibility that the BSE was transmitted to other animals including small ruminants is also worrisome. Research efforts are now focussing on decontamination and ante mortem diagnosis of TSE to prevent animal and human transmission. However, needs for fundamental research are still important as many questions remain to be addressed to understand the mechanism of prion transmission, as well as its pathogenesis.     

All clinically-relevant blood components transmit prion disease following a single blood transfusion: a sheep model of vCJD

Variant CJD (vCJD) is an incurable, infectious human disease, likely arising from the consumption of BSE-contaminated meat products. Whilst the epidemic appears to be waning, there is much concern that vCJD infection may be perpetuated in humans by the transfusion of contaminated blood products. Since 2004, several cases of transfusion-associated vCJD transmission have been reported and linked to blood collected from pre-clinically affected donors. Using an animal model in which the disease manifested resembles that of humans affected with vCJD, we examined which blood components used in human medicine are likely to pose the greatest risk of transmitting vCJD via transfusion. We collected two full units of blood from BSE-infected donor animals during the pre-clinical phase of infection. Using methods employed by transfusion services we prepared red cell concentrates, plasma and platelets units (including leucoreduced equivalents). Following transfusion, we showed that all components contain sufficient levels of infectivity to cause disease following only a single transfusion and also that leucoreduction did not prevent disease transmission. These data suggest that all blood components are vectors for prion disease transmission, and highlight the importance of multiple control measures to minimise the risk of human to human transmission of vCJD by blood transfusion.     

The transmission dynamics of BSE and vCJD

The bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic in cattle has had a huge economic impact on the agricultural industries across Europe. Furthermore, scientific evidence now strongly supporting a link between a new variant of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) and consumption of BSE-infected animals has further heightened the need both to understand the transmission of these new diseases and to improve control measures to protect public health. In this paper we review work undertaken by our group using epidemiological models to understand the transmission dynamics of BSE and vCJD. We present new estimates of the future number of cases of BSE and the number of infected animals slaughtered for consumption for Great Britain, and summarise similar analyses undertaken for Northern Ireland, Ireland, Portugal and France. We also consider the epidemiological determinants of the future course of the vCJD epidemic, including the age and genetic characteristics of the confirmed cases, and present predictions of future case numbers.     

Preclinical Detection of Variant CJD and BSE Prions in Blood

The emergence of variant Creutzfeldt Jakob Disease (vCJD) is considered a likely consequence of human dietary exposure to Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) agent. More recently, secondary vCJD cases were identified in patients transfused with blood products prepared from apparently healthy donors who later went on to develop the disease. As there is no validated assay for detection of vCJD/BSE infected individuals the prevalence of the disease in the population remains uncertain. In that context, the risk of vCJD blood borne transmission is considered as a serious concern by health authorities. In this study, appropriate conditions and substrates for highly efficient and specific in vitro amplification of vCJD/BSE agent using Protein Misfolding Cyclic Amplification (PMCA) were first identified. This showed that whatever the origin (species) of the vCJD/BSE agent, the ovine Q₁₇₁ PrP substrates provided the best amplification performances. These results indicate that the homology of PrP amino-acid sequence between the seed and the substrate is not the crucial determinant of the vCJD agent propagation in vitro. The ability of this method to detect endogenous vCJD/BSE agent in the blood was then defined. In both sheep and primate models of the disease, the assay enabled the identification of infected individuals in the early preclinical stage of the incubation period. Finally, sample panels that included buffy coat from vCJD affected patients and healthy controls were tested blind. The assay identified three out of the four tested vCJD affected patients and no false positive was observed in 141 healthy controls. The negative results observed in one of the tested vCJD cases concurs with results reported by others using a different vCJD agent blood detection assay and raises the question of the potential absence of prionemia in certain patients.     

Epidemiological determinants of the pattern and magnitude of the vCJD epidemic in Great Britain.

Understanding the epidemiology and aetiology of new-variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob (vCJD) disease in humans has become increasingly important given the scientific evidence linking it to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in cattle and hence the wide exposure of the population of Great Britain (GB) to potentially infectious tissue. The recent analysis undertaken to determine the risk to the population from dorsal route ganglia illustrated the danger in presenting point estimates rather than ranges of scenarios in the face of uncertainty. We present a mathematical template that relates the past pattern of the BSE epidemic in cattle to the future course of any vCJD epidemic in humans, and use extensive scenario analysis to explore the wide range of possible outcomes given the uncertainty in epidemiological determinants. We demonstrate that the average number of humans infected by one infectious bovine and the incubation period distribution are the two epidemiological factors that have the greatest impact on epidemic size and duration. Using the time-series of the BSE epidemic and the cases seen to date, we show that the minimum length of the incubation period is approximately nine years, and that at least 20% of the cases diagnosed to date were exposed prior to 1986. We also demonstrate that the current age distribution of vCJD cases can only arise if younger people were either exposed to a greater extent, more susceptible to infection, or have shorter incubation periods. Extensive scenario analyses show that given the information currently available, the very high degree of uncertainty in the future size of the epidemic will remain for the next 3-5 years. Furthermore, we demonstrate that this uncertainty is unlikely to be reduced by mass screening for late-stage infection.     

BSE prions propagate as either variant CJD-like or sporadic CJD-like prion strains in transgenic mice expressing human prion protein

Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) has been recognized to date only in individuals homozygous for methionine at PRNP codon 129. Here we show that transgenic mice expressing human PrP methionine 129, inoculated with either bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) or variant CJD prions, may develop the neuropathological and molecular phenotype of vCJD, consistent with these diseases being caused by the same prion strain. Surprisingly, however, BSE transmission to these transgenic mice, in addition to producing a vCJD-like phenotype, can also result in a distinct molecular phenotype that is indistinguishable from that of sporadic CJD with PrP(Sc) type 2. These data suggest that more than one BSE-derived prion strain might infect humans; it is therefore possible that some patients with a phenotype consistent with sporadic CJD may have a disease arising from BSE exposure.     

Prion diseases as zoonosis

Prion diseases such as bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) have been recognized as zoonosis since the existence of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) was reported in 1996. BSE became a serious social problem even in Japan after the first BSE case was found in 2001. The incidence of BSE in EU and UK appears declining, and the vCJD incidence also shows a tendency to decrease. On the contrary, fears for the spread of BSE became actual problems: BSE occurrence outside of EU, transmission of vCJD by blood transfusion, and the first vCJD case in Japan. To prevent further spread and to reduce the risk of BSE, it is important to continue BSE screening/surveillance, removal of specified risk materials from food and feed chains, and effective feed regulation. For the disclosure and elimination of prion-contaminated blood, materials for medical and pharmaceutical products and so on, it is required to improve the sensitivity of prion detection methods. Furthermore, it is also important to establish therapeutics of human prion diseases.     

Factors determining the pattern of the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) epidemic in the UK

Following the emergence of a new variant of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) 6 years ago, and the gradual rise in clinical cases, there has been increased speculation regarding the overall magnitude of this epidemic in Great Britain. In this paper, we explore the epidemiological factors and uncertainties determining the scale of this epidemic in light of the most recent data on reported vCJD mortality. Our results demonstrate that, while the magnitude of the uncertainty has decreased dramatically since 1996, it is still not possible to predict with any degree of accuracy the final magnitude of this epidemic, with the 95% confidence interval for future cases being from 10 to 7000 deaths. However, short-term projections show that it is unlikely that a dramatic increase in case numbers will be observed in the next 2-5 years (95% confidence interval for 2 years: 10-80 cases, for 5 years: 10-200 cases). The results confirm significant age-dependent susceptibility/exposure to infection, with the likelihood profile demonstrating that those aged between 10 and 20 years are at highest risk of infection. We also demonstrate how projections based on onset data may be substantially biased, and explore the sensitivity of results to assumptions concerning the exposure to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and the incubation-period distribution.     

Estimation of the Exposure of the UK Population to the Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy Agent through Dietary Intake During the Period 1980 to 1996

Although the incidence of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) has declined to 1 since 2012 in the UK, uncertainty remains regarding possible future cases and the size of the subclinical population that may cause secondary transmission of the disease through blood transfusion. Estimating the number of individuals who were exposed to the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) infectious agent and may be susceptible to vCJD will help to clarify related public health concerns and plan strategies. In this paper, we explore this estimate by describing the probability of potential exposure due to dietary intake throughout the BSE epidemic period from 1980 to 1996 as a stochastic Poisson process. We estimate the age- and gender-specific exposure intensities in food categories of beef and beef-containing dishes, burgers and kebabs, pies, and sausages, separating the two periods of 1980–1989 and 1990–1996 due to the specified bovine offal legislation of 1989. The estimated total number of (living) exposed individuals during each period is 5,089,027 (95% confidence interval [CI] 4,514,963–6,410,317), which was obtained by multiplying the population size of different birth cohorts by the probability of exposure via dietary intake and the probability of survival until the end of 2013. The estimated number is approximately doubled, assuming a contamination rate of . Among those individuals estimated, 31,855 (95% CI 26,849–42,541) are susceptible to infection. We also examined the threshold hypothesis by fitting an extreme-value distribution to the estimated infectious dose of the exposed individuals and obtained a threshold estimate of 13.7 bID₅₀ (95% CI 6.6–26.2 bID₅₀) (Weibull). The results provide useful information on potential carriers of prion disease who may pose a threat of infection via blood transfusion and thus provide insight into the likelihood of new incidents of vCJD occurring in the future.