SPATIALLY CORRELATED EXTINCTIONS SELECT FOR LESS EMIGRATION BUT LARGER DISPERSAL DISTANCES IN THE SPIDER MITE TETRANYCHUS URTICAE

Dispersal is a central process to almost all species on earth, as it connects spatially structured populations and thereby increases population persistence. Dispersal is subject to (rapid) evolution and local patch extinctions are an important selective force in this context. In contrast to the randomly distributed local extinctions considered in most theoretical studies, habitat fragmentation or other anthropogenic interventions will lead to spatially correlated extinction patterns. Under such conditions natural selection is thought to lead to more long‐distance dispersal, but this theoretical prediction has not yet been verified empirically. We test this prediction in experimental spatially structured populations of the spider mite Tetranychus urticae and supplement these empirical results with insights from an individual‐based evolutionary model. We demonstrate that the spatial correlation of local extinctions changes the entire distribution of dispersal distances (dispersal kernel) and selects for overall less emigration but more long‐distance dispersal.     

Spatially correlated recruitment of a marine predator and its prey shapes the large-scale pattern of density-dependent prey mortality

Patterns of predator dispersal can be critical to the dynamics of prey metapopulations. In marine systems, oceanic currents may shape the dispersal of planktonic larvae of both predators and prey, producing spatial correlations in the recruitment of both species and distinctive geographic patterns of prey mortality. I examined the potential for this phenomenon in two fishes, a wrasse and its grouper predator, at a Caribbean island where the near-shore oceanographic regime produces a temporally consistent spatial pattern of fish recruitment. I found that recruitment and adult abundance of groupers were spatially correlated with recruitment of wrasse prey. Furthermore, the local abundance of predators strongly affected the nature of density-dependent prey mortality. At sites with few predators, wrasse mortality was inversely density-dependent, while mortality was positively density-dependent at sites with higher predator densities. This phenomenon could be important to the dynamics of any metacommunity in which physical forces produce correlated dispersal.     

Spatial dynamics of specialist seed predators on synchronized and intermittent seed production of host plants

Masting, the synchronized and intermittent seed production by plant populations, provides highly variable food resources for specialist seed predators. Such a reproductive mode helps minimize seed losses through predator satiation and extinction of seed predator populations. The seed predators can buffer the resource variation through dispersal or extended diapause. We developed a spatially explicit resource-consumer model to understand the effect of masting on specialist seed predators. The masting dynamics were assumed to follow a resource-based model for plant reproduction, and the population dynamics of the predator were represented by a spatially extended Nicholson-Bailey model. The resultant model demonstrated that when host plants reproduce intermittently, seed predator populations go locally extinct, but global persistence of the predator is facilitated by dispersal or extended diapause. Global extinction of the predator resulted when the intermittent reproduction is highly synchronized among plants. An approximate invasion criterion for the predators showed that negative lag-1 autocorrelation in seeding reduces invasibility, and positive lag-1 cross-correlation enhances invasibility. Spatial synchronization in seeding at local scale caused by pollen coupling (or climate forcing) further prevented invasion of the predators. If the predators employed extended diapause, extremely high temporal variability in reproduction was required for plants to evade the predators.     

Climate change in metacommunities: dispersal gives double-sided effects on persistence

Climate change is increasingly affecting the structure and dynamics of ecological communities both at local and at regional scales, and this can be expected to have important consequences for their robustness and long-term persistence. The aim of the present work is to analyse how the spatial structure of the landscape and dispersal patterns of species (dispersal rate and average dispersal distance) affects metacommunity response to two disturbances: (i) increased mortality during dispersal and (ii) local species extinction. We analyse the disturbances both in isolation and in combination. Using a spatially and dynamically explicit metacommunity model, we find that the effect of dispersal on metacommunity persistence is two-sided: on the one hand, high dispersal significantly reduces the risk of bottom-up extinction cascades following the local removal of a species; on the other hand, when dispersal imposes a risk to the dispersing individuals, high dispersal increases extinction risks, especially when dispersal is global. Large-bodied species with long generation times at the highest trophic level are particularly vulnerable to extinction when dispersal involves a risk. This suggests that decreasing the mortality risk of dispersing individuals by improving the quality of the habitat matrix may greatly increase the robustness of metacommunities.     

Habitat variation,mutualism and predation shape the spatio‐temporal dynamics of tansy aphids

1. Spatially distributed resources can lead to the formation of metapopulations, where individual subpopulations are often small and can experience frequent local extinction events followed by recolonisation. An example of terrestrial metapopulations are specialised phytophagous insects on their patchily distributed host plants. 2. The present study investigated the population dynamics of a specialised aphid (Metopeurum fuscoviride) on its patchily distributed host plant (Tanacetum vulgare) and associated community of mutualistic ants and predators in a small‐scale field site. Furthermore, aphid habitat differences (plant size, C/N ratio, location and surrounding vegetation) were quantified, and seasonal timing and precipitation were considered. 3. Seasonal timing and precipitation both had effects on aphid colonisation, extinction events and aphid colony persistence. Towards the end of the season, and after higher precipitation, aphid colonisation events decreased and extinction events increased. Plant size and location as well as aphid within‐field dispersal determined the spatio‐temporal distribution of aphid colonies. 4. Mutualistic ants (Lasius niger and Myrmica rubra) increased the chance of establishment of aphid colonies. However, when M. rubra was tending, aphid colony persistence was reduced. Aphid persistence and extinction were dependent on aphid abundance, as a higher colony size reduced the probability of extinction by predation. 5. The results emphasise the importance of dispersal limitation, population growth and the presence of mutualists when studying the spatio‐temporal dynamics of tansy aphids, particularly in a small‐scale field site.     

Spatial variation in branch size promotes metapopulation persistence in dendritic river networks

1. Despite years of attention, the dynamics of species constrained to disperse within riverine networks are not well captured by existing metapopulation models, which often ignore local dynamics within branches.
2. We develop a modelling framework, based on traditional metapopulation theory, for patch occupancy dynamics subject to local colonisation–extinction dynamics within branches and regional dispersal between branches in size-structured, bifurcating riverine networks. Using this framework, we investigate whether and how spatial variation in branch size affects species persistence for dendritic systems with directional dispersal, including one-way (up- or downstream only) and two-way (both up- and downstream) dispersal.
3. Variation in branch size generally promotes species persistence more obviously at higher relative extinction rate, suggesting that previous studies ignoring differences in branch size in real riverine systems might overestimate species extinction risk.
4. Two-way dispersal is not always superior to one-way dispersal as a strategy for metapopulation persistence especially at high relative extinction rate. The type of dispersal that maximises species persistence is determined by the hierarchical level of the largest, and hence most influential, branch within the network. When considering the interactive effects of up- and downstream dispersal, we find that moderate upstream-biased dispersal maximises metapopulation viability, mediated by spatial branch arrangement.
5. Overall, these results suggest that both branch-size variation and species traits interact to determine species persistence, theoretically demonstrating the ecological significance of their interplay.

     

Dispersal rates affect species composition in metacommunities of Sarracenia purpurea inquilines

Dispersal among local communities can have a variety of effects on species composition and diversity at local and regional scales. Local conditions (e.g., resource and predator densities) can have independent effects, as well as interact with dispersal, to alter these patterns. Based on metacommunity models, we predicted that local diversity would show a unimodal relationship with dispersal frequency. We manipulated dispersal frequencies, resource levels, and the presence of predators (mosquito larvae) among communities found in the water-filled leaves of the pitcher plant Sarracenia purpurea. Diversity and abundance of species of the middle trophic level, protozoa and rotifers, were measured. Increased dispersal frequencies significantly increased regional species richness and protozoan abundance while decreasing the variance among local communities. Dispersal frequency interacted with predation at the local community scale to produce patterns of diversity consistent with the model. When predators were absent, we found a unimodal relationship between dispersal frequency and diversity, and when predators were present, there was a flat relationship. Intermediate dispersal frequencies maintained some species in the inquiline communities by offsetting extinction rates. Local community composition and the degree of connectivity between communities are both important for understanding species diversity patterns at local and regional scales.     

Spatial Heterogeneity in Habitat Quality and Cross-Scale Interactions in Metapopulations

Abstract Integration of habitat heterogeneity into spatially realistic metapopulation approaches reveals the potential for key cross-scale interactions. Broad-scale environmental gradients and land-use practices can create autocorrelation of habitat quality of suitable patches at intermediate spatial scales. Patch occupancy then depends not only on habitat quality at the patch scale but also on feedbacks from surrounding neighborhoods of autocorrelated patches. Metapopulation dynamics emerge from how demographic and dispersal processes interact with relevant habitat heterogeneity. We provide an empirical example from a metapopulation of round-tailed muskrats (Neofiber alleni) in which habitat quality of suitable patches was spatially autocorrelated most strongly within 1,000 m, which was within the expected dispersal range of the species. After controlling for factors typically considered in metapopulation studies—patch size, local patch quality, patch connectivity—we use a cross-variogram analysis to demonstrate that patch occupancy by muskrats was correlated with habitat quality across scales ≤1,171 m. We also discuss general consequences of spatial heterogeneity of habitat quality for metapopulations related to potential cross-scale interactions. We focus on spatially correlated extinctions and metapopulation persistence, hierarchical scaling of source–sink dynamics, and dispersal decisions by individuals in relation to information constraints.     

Which traits promote persistence of feral GM crops? Part 2: implications of metapopulation structure

Transgenes may spread from crops into the environment via the establishment of feral populations, often initiated by seed spill from transport lorries or farm machinery. Locally, such populations are often subject to large environmental variability and usually do not persist longer than a few years. Because secondary feral populations may arise from seed dispersal to adjacent sites, the dynamics of such populations should be studied in a metapopulation context. We study a structured metapopulation model with local dispersal, mimicking a string of roadside subpopulations of a feral crop. Population growth is assumed to be subject to local disturbances, introducing spatially random environmental stochasticity. Our aim is to understand the role of dispersal and environmental variability in the dynamics of such ephemeral populations. We determine the effect of dispersal on the extinction boundary and on the distribution of persistence times, and investigate the influence of spatially correlated disturbances as opposed to spatially random disturbances. We find that, given spatially random disturbances, dispersal slows down the decline of the metapopulation and results in the occurrence of long-lasting local populations which remain more or less static in space. We identify which life history traits, if changed by genetic modification, have the largest impact on the population growth rate and persistence times. For oilseed rape, these are seed bank survival and dormancy. Combining our findings with literature data on transgene-induced life history changes, we predict that persistence is promoted by transgenes for oil-modifications (high stearate or high laurate) and, possibly, for insect resistence (Bt). Transgenic tolerance to glufosinate herbicide is predicted to reduce persistence.     

The spatial scale of population fluctuations and quasi-extinction risk

Using a spatially homogeneous population model with migration (random individual dispersal) and spatially autocorrelated environmental noise, we show how migration and local density regulation affect the spatial scale of fluctuations in the log of population sizes as well as the 1-yr differences in these. The difference between the squares of these two spatial scales of population fluctuations does not depend on the spatial scale of the noise but only on migration rate and strength of local density regulation. We also show how migration, local density regulation, and spatially correlated environmental noise affect the realized population process at a specific location. As the migration increases, the realized local density regulation and the expected population size increase, while the realized environmental noise decreases. This approach also enables us to analyze the dynamics of the total population size within quadrats of different sizes. The risk of local quasi extinction is strongly reduced by increasing quadrat size or migration rate, while an increase in environmental stochasticity or spatial correlation in the environmental noise increases the risk of quasi extinction.     

Predator-prey interactions in a nonequilibrium context: the metapopulation approach to modeling "hide-and-seek" dynamics in a spatially explicit tri-trophic system

Predators and prey are usually heterogeneously distributed in space so that the ability of the predators to respond to the distribution of their prey may have a profound influence on the stability and persistence of a predator‐prey system. A special type of dynamics is “hide‐and‐seek” characterized by a high turnover rate of local populations of prey and predators, because once the predators have found a patch of prey they quickly overexploit it, whereupon the starving predators either should move to better places or die. Continued persistence of prey and predators thus hinges on a long‐term balance between local extinctions and founding of new subpopulations. The colonization rate depends on the rate of emigration from occupied patches and the likelihood of successfully arriving at a suitable new patch, while extinction rate depends on the local population dynamics. Since extinctions and colonizations are both discrete probabilistic events, these phenomena are most adequately modeled by means of a stochastic model. In order to demonstrate the qualitative differences between a deterministic and stochastic approach to population dynamics, a spatially explicit tritrophic predator‐prey model is developed in a deterministic and a stochastic version. The model is parameterized using data for the two‐spotted spider mite (Tetranychus urticae) and the phytoseiid mite predator Phytoseiulus persimilis inhabiting greenhouse cucumbers.
Simulations show that the deterministic and stochastic approaches yield different results. The deterministic version predicts that the populations will exhibit violent fluctuations, implying that the system is fundamentally unstable. In contrast, the stochastic version predicts that the two species will be able to coexist in spite of frequent local extinctions of both species, provided the system consists of a sufficiently large number of local populations. This finding is in agreement with experimental results. It is therefore concluded that demographic stochasticity in combination with dispersal is capable of producing and maintaining sufficient asynchrony between local populations to ensure long‐term regional (metapopulation) persistence.     

Habitat destruction in a simple predator-prey patch model: how predators enhance prey persistence and abundance

We model a metapopulation of predator-prey patches using both spatially implicit or mean-field (MF) and spatially explicit (SE) approaches. We show that in the MF model there are parameter regimes for which prey cannot persist in the absence of predators, but can in their presence. In addition, there are parameter regimes for which prey may persist in isolation, but the presence of predators will increase prey patch density. Predators may thus enhance prey persistence and overall abundance. The key mechanism responsible for this effect is the occurrence of prey dispersal from patches that are occupied by both prey and predators. In addition, these patches should be either long-lived, such as that occurs when predators keep prey from overexploiting its local resource, or the presence of a predator on a patch should significantly enhance the prey dispersal out of that patch. In the SE approach these positive effects of predators on prey persistence and abundance occur for even larger parameter ranges than in the MF model. Prey dispersal from predator-prey patches may thus be important for persistence of both species as a community, independent of the modeling framework studied. Comparison of the MF and SE approaches shows that local dispersal constraints can have the edge over global dispersal for the persistence of the metapopulation in regimes where the two species have a beneficial effect on each other. In general, our model provides an example of feedback in multiple-species metapopulations that can make the implementation of conservation schemes based on single-species arguments very risky.     

Metapopulation Persistence in Random Fragmented Landscapes

Habitat destruction and land use change are making the world in which natural populations live increasingly fragmented, often leading to local extinctions. Although local populations might undergo extinction, a metapopulation may still be viable as long as patches of suitable habitat are connected by dispersal, so that empty patches can be recolonized. Thus far, metapopulations models have either taken a mean-field approach, or have modeled empirically-based, realistic landscapes. Here we show that an intermediate level of complexity between these two extremes is to consider random landscapes, in which the patches of suitable habitat are randomly arranged in an area (or volume). Using methods borrowed from the mathematics of Random Geometric Graphs and Euclidean Random Matrices, we derive a simple, analytic criterion for the persistence of the metapopulation in random fragmented landscapes. Our results show how the density of patches, the variability in their value, the shape of the dispersal kernel, and the dimensionality of the landscape all contribute to determining the fate of the metapopulation. Using this framework, we derive sufficient conditions for the population to be spatially localized, such that spatially confined clusters of patches act as a source of dispersal for the whole landscape. Finally, we show that a regular arrangement of the patches is always detrimental for persistence, compared to the random arrangement of the patches. Given the strong parallel between metapopulation models and contact processes, our results are also applicable to models of disease spread on spatial networks.     

The interaction between spatial heterogeneity and genetic feedback in laboratory predator-prey systems

Summary A hybrid experimental design combining laboratory populations and computer simulation was used to study the relative influence of spatial heterogeneity, genetic feedback and predator foraging behavior on the stability of predator-prey systems. Houseflies, Musca domestica, maintained in multicellular or single-cell population cages were used as predator feeding on chemical solutions contained in small glass vials. Feeding, mortality and dispersal of the predators occurred within the cages, but reproduction of the predators and prey as well as dispersal of the prey was controlled by a computer program. Genetic change in the prey was determined partially by the computer model which associated chemical solutions with particular genotypes, and partially by the predators, whose foraging behavior influenced the fitness of each genotype. Three treatments were compared: a genetically polymorphic prey population in a spatially homogeneous environment, a monomorphic prey population in a heterogeneous environment, and a polymorphic prey population in a heterogeneous environment. With the parameters used, the latter treatment, involving an interaction between spatial heterogeneity and genetic feedback, was the most stable. Without genetic feedback in the prey, spatial heterogeneity was insufficient to overcome the destabilizing influence of the predator's foraging behavior. Without spatial heterogeneity, genetic feedback was insufficient to overcome the destabilizing effect of preferential feeding by the predators on palatable prey. The prey population evolved sufficient resistance to cause extinction of the predator population. The results support the hypothesis that population regulation by genetic feedback in predator-prey systems is less likely when predators feed preferentially on susceptible prey and that spatial heterogeneity, by decreasing the relative accessibility of susceptible prey and hence altering the predator's foraging strategy, may increase the likelihood of regulation through genetic feedback.     

Spatial processes that maintain biodiversity in plant communities

The composition of communities of sessile organisms, and the change in species diversity with time, is a spatially explicit phenomenon. Three spatial factors clearly affect diversity: (1) the structure and heterogeneity of the landscape that limits species immigration and ultimate community size; (2) neighborhood interactions that determine colonization and extinction rates and influence residence times of local populations; and (3) disturbances that open spatially contiguous areas for recolonization by less abundant species. The importance of these three factors was first reviewed and then examined with a spatially explicit, multi-species model of plant dispersal, competition and establishment, with an assumption of neutrality (all species had equivalent life histories) that reduced the initial dimensionality of the problem. The simulations assumed that the probability of immigration was a linear function of mainland abundance and distance to islands, similar to the equilibrium theory of island biogeography and the unified neutral theory of biodiversity. The rate of increase in species richness was not constant across island sizes, declining as island area became very large. This pattern was explained by the spatial dynamics of colonization and establishment, a non-random process that cannot be explained by passive sampling alone. Simulations showed that population establishment depended critically on rare long-distance dispersal events while population persistence was achieved by the formation of aggregated species distributions that developed through restricted dispersal and local competitive interactions. Nevertheless, species richness always declined to a single species in the absence of disturbances, while up to 40 species could persist to 10,000 years when spatially dependent mortality was added. Further explorations with spatially explicit models will be required to fully appreciate the consequence of land use change and altered disturbance regimes on patterns of species distribution and the maintenance of diversity.     

Predators in the plant–soil feedback loop: aboveground plant‐associated predators may alter the outcome of plant–soil interactions

Plant–soil feedback (PSF) can structure plant communities, promoting coexistence (negative PSF) or monodominance (positive PSF). At higher trophic levels, predators can alter plant community structure by re‐allocating resources within habitats. When predator and plant species are spatially associated, predators may alter the outcome of PSF. Here, I explore the influence of plant‐associated predators on PSF using a generalised cellular automaton model that tracks nutrients, plants, herbivores and predators. I explore key contingencies in plant–predator associations such as whether predators associate with live vs. senesced vegetation. Results indicate that plant‐associated predators shift PSF to favour the host plant when predators colonise live vegetation, but the outcome of PSF will depend upon plant dispersal distance when predators colonise dead vegetation. I apply the model to two spider‐associated invasive plants, finding that spider predators should shift PSF dynamics in a way that inhibits invasion by one forest invader, but exacerbates invasion by another.     

Crop size,plant aggregation,and microhabitat type affect fruit removal by birds from individual melastome plants in the Upper Amazon

We studied the efficiency (proportion of the crop removed) and quantitative effectiveness (number of fruits removed) of dispersal of Miconia fosteri and M. serrulata (Melastomataceae) seeds by birds in lowland tropical wet forest of Ecuador. Specifically, we examined variation in fruit removal in order to reveal the spatial scale at which crop size influences seed dispersal outcome of individual plants, and to evaluate how the effect of crop size on plant dispersal success may be affected by conspecific fruit abundance and by the spatial distribution of frugivore abundance. We established two 9-ha plots in undisturbed terra-firme understory, where six manakin species (Pipridae) disperse most seeds of these two plant species. Mean levels of fruit removal were low for both species, with high variability among plants. In general, plants with larger crop sizes experienced greater efficiency and effectiveness of fruit removal than plants with smaller crops. Fruit removal, however, was also influenced by microhabitat, such as local topography and local neighborhood. Fruit-rich and disperser-rich patches overlapped spatially for M. fosteri but not M. serrulata, nonetheless fruit removal of M. serrulata was still much greater in fruit-rich patches. Fruit removal from individual plants did not decrease in patches with many fruiting conspecifics and, in fact, removal effectiveness was enhanced for M. fosteri with small crop sizes when such plants were in patches with more conspecifics. These results suggest that benefits of attracting dispersers to a patch balanced or outweighed the costs of competition for dispersers. Spatial pattern of fruit removal, a measure of plant fitness, depended on a complex interaction among plant traits, spatial patterns of plant distribution, and disperser behavior.     

Are spatially correlated or uncorrelated disturbance regimes better for the survival of species?

The survival of species in dynamic landscapes (characterised by patch destruction and subsequent regeneration) depends on both the species' attributes and the disturbance pattern. Using a spatially explicit model we explored how the mean time to extinction of a metapopulation depends on the spatial correlation of patch destruction in relation to the population growth and dispersal abilities of species. Two contrasting answers are possible. On the one hand, increasing spatial correlation of patch destruction increases the spatial correlation of population growth and this is known to decrease metapopulation persistence. On the other hand, spatially correlated patch destruction and regeneration can lead to clustered habitat patches and this is known to increase metapopulation persistence. Therefore, we hypothesised that some species are better off under spatially correlated and alternatively uncorrelated disturbance regimes. However, contrary to this hypothesis, in all kinds of cases spatial correlation reduced metapopulation persistence. We found this to be due to the fact that the spatial correlation of patch destruction causes increasing temporal fluctuations in the regional carrying capacity of the metapopulation and is hence generally disadvantageous for long-term persistence. The main consequence for conservation biology is that reducing spatial correlation in disturbances is likely to be a reliable strategy in a dynamic landscape that will benefit practically all species with a low risk of adverse side effects .     

Long‐term consistency in spatial patterns of primate seed dispersal

Seed dispersal is a key ecological process in tropical forests, with effects on various levels ranging from plant reproductive success to the carbon storage potential of tropical rainforests. On a local and landscape scale, spatial patterns of seed dispersal create the template for the recruitment process and thus influence the population dynamics of plant species. The strength of this influence will depend on the long‐term consistency of spatial patterns of seed dispersal. We examined the long‐term consistency of spatial patterns of seed dispersal with spatially explicit data on seed dispersal by two neotropical primate species, Leontocebus nigrifrons and Saguinus mystax (Callitrichidae), collected during four independent studies between 1994 and 2013. Using distributions of dispersal probability over distances independent of plant species, cumulative dispersal distances, and kernel density estimates, we show that spatial patterns of seed dispersal are highly consistent over time. For a specific plant species, the legume Parkia panurensis, the convergence of cumulative distributions at a distance of 300 m, and the high probability of dispersal within 100 m from source trees coincide with the dimension of the spatial–genetic structure on the embryo/juvenile (300 m) and adult stage (100 m), respectively, of this plant species. Our results are the first demonstration of long‐term consistency of spatial patterns of seed dispersal created by tropical frugivores. Such consistency may translate into idiosyncratic patterns of regeneration.     

Information thresholds,habitat loss and population persistence in breeding birds

The combination of spatial structure and non‐linear population dynamics can promote the persistence of coupled populations, even when the average population growth rate of the patches seen in isolation would predict otherwise. This phenomenon has generally been conceptualized and investigated through the movement of individuals among patches that each holds many individuals, as in metapopulation models. However, population persistence can likewise increase as the result of individuals moving among sites (e.g. breeding territories) within in a single patch. Here I examine the latter: individuals making small‐scale informed decisions with respect to where to breed can promote population persistence in poor environments. Based on a simple algebraic model, I demonstrate information thresholds, and predict that greater information use is required for population persistence under lower spatial heterogeneity in habitat quality, all else equal. Second, I implement an individual‐based model to explore prior experience and prospecting on conspecific success within a more complex, and spatially heterogeneous environment. Uniquely, I jointly examine the effects of simulated habitat loss, spatial heterogeneity prior to habitat, and variation in information gathering on population persistence. I find that habitat loss accelerates population quasi‐extinction risk; however, information use reduces extinction probabilities in proportion to the level of information gathering. Per capita reproductive success declines with number of breeding sites, suggesting that information‐mediated Allee effects may contribute to extinction risk. In conclusion, my study suggests that populations in a changing world may be increasingly vulnerable to extinction where patch size and spatial heterogeneity constrain the effectiveness of information‐use strategies.