Carryover and the two-period crossover clinical trial

The use of the two-period crossover trial for comparing two noncurative treatments in patients with a chronic disease is appealing since it eliminates the between-subject variability. However, the possibility of the existence of carryover effect leads many authors to advise that a parallel design be used whenever carryover is suspected. We examine this advice and quantify the degree of carryover required to make the parallel design preferable in terms of the power of the test of treatment effect and precision of the estimate of treatment difference. We conclude that in many situations this amount of carryover is substantial and unlikely to exist.     

Using the maximum test statistic in the two-period crossover clinical trial

In a two-period crossover trial where residual carryover is suspected, it is often advised that first-period data only be used in an analysis appropriate for a parallel design. However, it has been shown (Willan and Pater, 1986, Biometrics 42, 593-599) that the crossover analysis is more powerful than the parallel analysis if the residual carryover, expressed as a proportion of treatment effect, is less than 2- square root of 2(1 - rho), where rho is the intrasubject correlation coefficient. Choosing between the analyses based on the empirical evaluation of this condition is equivalent to choosing the analysis with the larger corresponding test statistic. Approximate nominal significance levels are presented that maintain the desired level when basing the analysis on the maximum test statistic. Furthermore, the power and precision of the analysis based on the maximum test statistic are compared to the crossover and parallel analyses.     

A Bayesian analysis of the two-period crossover design for clinical trials

Statisticians have been critical of the use of the two-period crossover designs for clinical trials because the estimate of the treatment difference is biased when the carryover effects of the two treatments are not equal. In the standard approach, if the null hypothesis of equal carryover effects is not rejected, data from both periods are used to estimate and test for treatment differences; if the null hypothesis is rejected, data from the first period alone are used. A Bayesian analysis based on the Bayes factor against unequal carryover effects is given. Although this Bayesian approach avoids the "all-or-nothing" decision inherent in the standard approach, it recognizes that with small trials it is difficult to provide unequivocal evidence that the carryover effects of the two treatments are equal, and thus that the interpretation of the difference between treatment effects is highly dependent on a subjective assessment of the reality or not of equal carryover effects.     

Adjusted regression trend test for a multicenter clinical trial

Studies using a series of increasing doses of a compound, including a zero dose control, are often conducted to study the effect of the compound on the response of interest. For a one-way design, Tukey et al. (1985, Biometrics 41, 295-301) suggested assessing trend by examining the slopes of regression lines under arithmetic, ordinal, and arithmetic-logarithmic dose scalings. They reported the smallest p-value for the three significance tests on the three slopes for safety assessments. Capizzi et al. (1992, Biometrical Journal 34, 275-289) suggested an adjusted trend test, which adjusts the p-value using a trivariate t-distribution, the joint distribution of the three slope estimators. In this paper, we propose an adjusted regression trend test suitable for two-way designs, particularly for multicenter clinical trials. In a step-down fashion, the proposed trend test can be applied to a multicenter clinical trial to compare each dose with the control. This sequential procedure is a closed testing procedure for a trend alternative. Therefore, it adjusts p-values and maintains experimentwise error rate. Simulation results show that the step-down trend test is overall more powerful than a step-down least significant difference test.     

酪酸梭菌活菌散辅助治疗新生儿黄疸的随机多中心临床疗效观察

目的观察酪酸梭菌活菌散(商品名:宝乐安)辅助治疗新生儿黄疸的临床疗效。方法将543例新生儿黄疸患儿随机分为观察组和对照组,观察组274例,对照组269例。观察组在蓝光治疗的同时给予酪酸梭菌活菌散口服,0.5g/次,3次/d,服至黄疸消退;对照组只给予蓝光治疗。于治疗后48h、72h、96h检测血清胆红素值。结果治疗72h、96h后观察组血清胆红素水平较对照组明显下降(P0.05)。结论在蓝光治疗新生儿黄疸的同时服用酪酸梭菌活菌散,可迅速降低胆红素水平,缩短治疗时间。     

Histopathological diagnosis of thyroid cancer in a multicenter trial

INTRODUCTION: In the front of the problems related to the differentiation between benign and malignant thyroid tumors we decided to perform a multicentre study in order to validate diagnoses of malignant thyroid tumors and assess the inter-observer variability. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Material included 690 cases of malignant and benign thyroid lesions with primary histopathology established in 1985-1999. These cases were selected to multicentre study. The studies were sent from centres which agreed to participate in the project and than coded in the independent centre--Department of Nuclear Medicine and Endocrine Oncology. 40 pathologists from 25 centres provided their diagnoses which were compared with the reference ones. RESULTS: 10 547 diagnoses were evaluated, both on their accuracy of the distinction between malignant and benign lesions and on their accuracy of cancer histotype definition. The reference diagnosis was made by an agreement between four expert pathologists (D.L., S.S., J.S. and A.K.). The participants diagnosed 21% of cases differently than experts. Concerning the diagnosis of cancer histotype, the difference between participants diagnosis and the reference one was even higher. The best concordance was achieved in the diagnosis of papillary thyroid cancer, however, on the cost of cancer overdiagnosis by some participants. Follicular cancer was diagnosed accurately only in 75.4% of cases. CONCLUSION: The study documents a high inter-observer variability of thyroid cancer diagnosis and confirms the lesser accuracy of diagnosis of follicular cancer.     

Osteoarthritis subpopulations and implications for clinical trial design

Treatment guidelines for osteoarthritis have stressed the need for research on clinical predictors of response to different treatments. However, identifying such clinical predictors of response is less easy than it seems, and there is not a given classification of osteoarthritis subpopulations. This review article highlights the key methodical issues when analyzing and designing clinical studies to detect important subgroups with respect to treatment effect. In addition, we discuss the main osteoarthritis subpopulations and give examples of how specific treatment effects in these subpopulations have been assessed.     

To compare PubMed Clinical Queries and UpToDate in teaching information mastery to clinical residents: a crossover randomized controlled trial

Purpose

To compare PubMed Clinical Queries and UpToDate regarding the amount and speed of information retrieval and users'' satisfaction.

Method

A cross-over randomized trial was conducted in February 2009 in Tehran University of Medical Sciences that included 44 year-one or two residents who participated in an information mastery workshop. A one-hour lecture on the principles of information mastery was organized followed by self learning slide shows before using each database. Subsequently, participants were randomly assigned to answer 2 clinical scenarios using either UpToDate or PubMed Clinical Queries then crossed to use the other database to answer 2 different clinical scenarios. The proportion of relevantly answered clinical scenarios, time to answer retrieval, and users'' satisfaction were measured in each database.

Results

Based on intention-to-treat analysis, participants retrieved the answer of 67 (76%) questions using UpToDate and 38 (43%) questions using PubMed Clinical Queries (P<0.001). The median time to answer retrieval was 17 min (95% CI: 16 to 18) using UpToDate compared to 29 min (95% CI: 26 to 32) using PubMed Clinical Queries (P<0.001). The satisfaction with the accuracy of retrieved answers, interaction with UpToDate and also overall satisfaction were higher among UpToDate users compared to PubMed Clinical Queries users (P<0.001).

Conclusions

For first time users, using UpToDate compared to Pubmed Clinical Querries can lead to not only a higher proportion of relevant answer retrieval within a shorter time, but also a higher users'' satisfaction. So, addition of tutoring pre-appraised sources such as UpToDate to the information mastery curricula seems to be highly efficient.     

Efficacy and safety of Abelmoschus manihot for IgA nephropathy: A multicenter randomized clinical trial

Rationale and ObjectiveIgA nephropathy (IgAN) is an important cause for end-stage renal disease worldwide. The treatment for IgAN remains challenging, and few randomized and controlled clinical trials have been conducted to evaluate new therapies. The present study assesses the efficacy and safety of Abelmoschus manihot (AM) in IgAN patients.Study DesignRandomized, non-inferiority, double-blind, double-dummy multicenter trial.Setting and ParticipantsThis trial was designed to recruit 1,600 biopsy-proven IgAN patients (proteinuria between 0.5-3.0 g/d and estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] of ≥ 45 ml/min/1.73 m²) across China.InterventionsThe participants were randomized at 1:1 to AM (2.5 g for three times per day) or losartan potassium (100 mg per day) for 48 weeks.OutcomesThe primary outcome was the change in 24-hour proteinuria from baseline to week 48. The secondary outcomes were the change in eGFR from baseline to week 48, and the incidents of endpoint events (proteinuria ≥ 3.5 g/24 h, doubling of serum creatinine, or receiving renal replacement treatment).ResultsAmong 1,470 randomized patients (mean age, 37.4 [SD, 10.6] years old; 777 [52.9%] were female; mean eGFR, 95.0 [SD, 24.3] mL/min/1.73 m²; mean 24-hour proteinuria, 1.2 [SD, 0.7] g/d), the mean decline in 24-h proteinuria at week 48 was 230 mg and 253 mg in the AM and losartan potassium groups, respectively (P = 0.676). The mean difference in the change in 24-h proteinuria between these two groups was -23.32 mg (95% confident interval: -123.2 to 76.6, p = 0.647). The mean decline in eGFR was 0.41 ml/min/1.73 m² and 0.76 ml/min/1.73 m² in the AM and losartan potassium groups, respectively (p = 0.661). The mean difference in the change in eGFR between these two groups was -0.43 ml/min/1.73 m² (95% confident interval: -1.99 to 1.13, p = 0.589). The incidence of endpoint events was 8.6% in the AM group and 8.2% in the losartan group (p = 0.851).LimitationsThe results of the trial may not be generalized to IgAN patients with a proteinuria of > 3.0 g/d and an eGFR of < 45 ml/min/1.73 m². The long-term benefits of AM in reducing the risk of progressive renal dysfunction remains unclear, based on this 48-week observation.ConclusionAM can be recommended as a promising treatment for IgAN patients.     

A randomized double blind crossover placebo-controlled clinical trial to assess the effects of a mouthwash containing chlorine dioxide on oral malodor

Background

Each year in the UK 2000 children attend emergency departments and 500 are admitted to hospital following a bath water scald. The long term effects can include disability, disfigurement or psychological harm and repeated skin grafts may be required as the child grows. The costs of treating a severe scald are estimated at 250,000 GBP. Children living in the most deprived wards are at greatest risk of thermal injuries; hospital admission rates are three times that for children living in the least deprived wards. Domestic hot water, which is usually stored at around 60 degrees Celsius, can result in a second-degree burn after 3 seconds and a third-degree burn after 5 seconds. Educational strategies to encourage testing of tap water temperature and reduction of hot water thermostat settings have largely proved unsuccessful. Legislation in the USA mandating pre-setting hot water heater thermostats at 49 degrees Celsius was effective in reducing scald injuries, suggesting passive measures may have a greater impact. Thermostatic mixer valves (TMVs), recently developed for the domestic market, fitted across the hot and cold water supply pipes of the bath, allow delivery of water set at a fixed temperature from the hot bath tap. These valves therefore offer the potential to reduce scald injuries.

Design/Methods

A pragmatic, randomised controlled trial to assess the effectiveness of TMVs in reducing bath hot tap water temperatures in the homes of families with young children in rented social housing. Two parallel arms include an intervention group and a control group where the intervention will be deferred. The intervention will consist of fitting a TMV (set at 44 degrees Celsius) by a qualified plumber and provision of educational materials. The control arm will not receive a TMV or the educational materials for the study duration but will be offered the intervention after collection of follow-up data 12 months post randomisation. The primary outcome measure will be the bath hot tap water temperature. Fifteen families per arm are required to detect a reduction in the mean bath hot tap water temperature from 60.4 degrees Celsius (SD 9.1) in the control group to 46 degrees Celsius in the intervention group, with 90% power and a 5% significance level (2 sided). Secondary outcome measures including acceptability will require a sample size of 120 participants.

Discussion

Whilst TMVs have the potential to reduce scald injuries, to date there have been no randomised controlled trials assessing their effectiveness, acceptability and cost effectiveness.

Trial Registration

ISRCTN21179067     

Progesterone and the premenstrual syndrome: a double blind crossover trial.

A double blind, randomised, crossover trial of oral micronised progesterone (two months) and placebo (two months) was conducted to determine whether progesterone alleviated premenstrual complaints. Twenty three women were interviewed premenstrually before treatment and in each month of treatment. They completed Moos''s menstrual distress questionnaire, Beck et al''s depression inventory, Spielberger et al''s state anxiety inventory, the mood adjective checklist, and a daily symptom record. Analyses of data found an overall beneficial effect of being treated for all variables except restlessness, positive moods, and interest in sex. Maximum improvement occurred in the first month of treatment with progesterone. Nevertheless, an appreciably beneficial effect of progesterone over placebo for mood and some physical symptoms was identifiable after both one and two months of treatment. Further studies are needed to determine the optimum duration of treatment.