Pulmonary embolism in surgical patients: 1959-79.

The Edinburgh surgical statistics (audit) have been analysed for the years 1959, 1964, 1969, 1974, and 1979 to determine the trends in pulmonary embolism in surgical patients who died. There was a total of 61,038 operations, 1528 postoperative deaths, 804 necropsies, and 158 reported pulmonary emboli. The incidence of embolism diagnosed clinically and at necropsy fell throughout the period. This fall held good after corrections for necropsy rates, prognosis, and proportions of major operations. Although the overall necropsy rate fell from 58% to 40%, in patients expected to have a good prognosis the rate rose from 68% to 75%. Necropsy-proved embolism in "good prognosis" patients fell from 0.5% to 0.15% per 100 major operations. The main reduction has taken place since most surgeons in the area adopted methods of prophylaxis against venous thrombosis, but a direct relationship is not proved by this study.     

Has mortality from melanoma stopped rising in Australia? Analysis of trends between 1931 and 1994.

OBJECTIVE--To describe recent trends in mortality from melanoma in Australia. DESIGN--An analysis of trends in age standardised and age and sex specific mortalities by year of death and median year of birth (cohort). SETTING--Australia. SUBJECTS--All deaths from melanoma registered in Australia between 1931 and 1994. RESULTS--Melanoma mortality rose steadily from 1931 to 1985. From 1959 the annual rate of increase was 6.3% in men and 2.9% in women, resulting in mortalities of 4.82 and 2.51 per 100,000 person years in 1985 and 1989, respectively. Mortalities for both sexes seem to have plateaued from June 1985 onwards. In 1990-4 the rate rose by 3.7% in men to 5.00 per 100,000 and in women it fell by 5.2% to 2.38 per 100,000. The non-significant increase after 1985 in mortality in men was restricted to those aged over 70 years of age, whereas the fall in rates in women was mostly in those aged under 55 years. This pattern was generally reflected in the state trends, though with some variation: rates for women in Queensland had peaked in the late 1970s; while rates for men in New South Wales continued to rise in 1990-4, placing them above those for Queensland. Examination of mortalities specific for age, period, and cohort for Australia as a whole showed several salient features. Rates in men rose steeply in cohorts born before about 1930; were stable in cohorts born between 1930 and 1950; and fell in more recent cohorts. Rates in women showed similar changes but about five years earlier. CONCLUSION--Melanoma mortality in Australia peaked in about 1985 and has now plateaued. On the basis of trends in cohorts it can be expected to fall in coming years.     

Influence on clinical practice of routine intra-partum fetal monitoring.

An attempt has been made to monitor by continuous fetal heart rate according all women admitted in labour. Altogether 85% of the 1070 patients delivered at one hospital were monitored in 1973 and 92% in 1974. Perinatal mortality fell significantly from levels in preceding years to 15-8 and 11-7 per 1000 births, respectively, in 1973 and 1974. The fall was primarily due to the elimination of intra-partum stillbirths and a significant reduction in neonatal mortality. The incidence of caesarean sections also fell from 9-7% in 1973 to 5-8% in 1974. All patients should be monitored because it is impossible to predict reliably intra-partum fetal distress from maternal "high-risk" factors present before the onset of labour.     

Spina bifida and anencephaly in Scotland.

Data obtained from routine sources showed that from 1971 to 1982 the birth prevalences of spina bifida and anencephaly in Scotland fell. When known terminations after routine alpha fetoprotein screening were added to total births the adjusted birth prevalence could be calculated. In 1974-82 this fell by 40% for spina bifida (3 X 0-1 X 8) and 36% for anencephaly (2 X 2-1 X 4). These findings were compared with data on birth prevalences in England and Wales, Northern Ireland, and Glasgow. The fall in birth prevalences of spina bifida and anencephaly over the past decade appears to have been due both to a true fall in incidence as well as to increased screening and termination for these conditions.     

Some properties of Red deer (Cervus elaphus) at exceptionally high population-density in Scotland

This paper records some features of Red deer ( Cervus elaphus L.) at very high population density on a Scottish island. About half the total population was shot-out in autumn 1974, and half the remainder in autumn 1975, with special searches for deer which had died of natural causes during the intervening year. In all, the animals examined amounted to 80% of the original population, and from the data gathered it was possible to (i) assess the structure and reproductive features of the original population; (ii) examine the level of animal performance at this exceptionally high population-density; and (iii) check for any changes in performance arising from the initial reduction in density.
The sex-ratio of adults in the original population showed a small excess of hinds, stags being apparently subject to a higher mortality rate than hinds after about six years of age. In performance, these deer were much the same as those living elsewhere on Scottish hill-land at relatively high population-density, i.e. with delayed puberty and poor breeding rates in hinds, and with much smaller adults than in woodland habitats. But, contrary to expectation, the general level of performance was not unusually low for Red deer on Scottish hill-land, and there was no evidence of transmissible diseases or excessive parasitism. It was also surprising that the animals showed no improvements in performance following their first reduction; if anything, they were slightly poorer after one year at reduced density. This may have been a temporary consequence of the severe disruption of existing behaviour patterns brought about by the sudden loss of many groups of deer.     

The effects of starvation upon protein turnover in red and white myotomal muscle of rainbow trout, Salmo gairdneri Richardson

Protein synthesis rates of both red and white muscle were measured using a constant infusion technique in fed and starved rainbow trout over a period of 2 months. In both tissues, rates of protein synthesis fell during starvation although the fall was more rapid in white than in red muscle. The reduced rates of protein synthesis were correlated to a reduced level of RNA in the tissues and a lower rate of translation of the RNA present. Estimated rates for protein degradation in white muscle showed a marked initial increase but with more prolonged starvation the degradation rate become only slightly greater than that in the fed fish.     

Sterile period, translocation and specific locus mutation in the mouse following fractionated x-ray treatments with different fractionation intervals

Adult male mice were given doses of 200 rad acute X-irradiation and mated at intervals to hybrid females over the next 9 weeks. Testis weights fell to 44% of normal during the 5th week and were still subnormal when observations ended in the 10th week. Epididymal-sperm counts fell in the 4th week (after a peak in the 3rd) and were very low in the 6th and 7th weeks, though still above zero. This reduction was followed by high frequencies of pre-implantation loss in females mated to these males and dissected on the 12th day of gestation. Examination of eggs 1–2 days after ovulation showed that there was also a sharp decrease (from the normal level of almost 100%) in the fertilization index, no eggs being fertilized in some females while others showed an intermediate rate. It was concluded that much of the pre-implantation loss really stemmed from non-fertilization rather than from zygotic death. This possibility has already been envisaged by Bateman and others, and reinforces the belief that an index of dominant lethality based on post implantation death should be used whenever the mutagenic treatment is likely to induce much germ-cell killing. The data suggested that reduced fertilization is likely to occur in mice whenever sperm counts fall to less than 10% normal.     

Apparent disapperance of hypernatraemic dehydration from infant deaths in Sheffield.

The death certificates and necropsy reports of the 1115 Sheffield infants who died under 2 years of age in 1969-78 were examined. This study showed the apparent disappearance of deaths with hypernatraemia and in particular deaths presenting as cot deaths. The fall in incidence may be as much the result of an intensive local campaign on child care and infant feeding as of the change in the composition of dried milk for baby feeding.     

What contribution has cardiac surgery made to the decline in mortality from coronary heart disease?

The number of deaths from coronary artery disease is declining in New Zealand as in some other Western countries. It has been estimated that in 1981 in the Auckland metropolitan area there were 126 fewer deaths than would have been expected from the data in 1974. The contribution made by cardiac surgery to this decline was assessed from the known numbers of patients who were operated on, from their survival rate, and from the predicted mortality of the surgical cohort had they not undergone operation. Such mortality was predicted from past studies of patients with similar symptoms, exercise data, studies of unstable angina, and the coronary artery surgical study registry. From this method it was estimated that coronary surgery accounted for 26% to 42% of the reduction in coronary deaths. Two previous studies estimated, from calculations based on the European study of patients with modest symptoms, that the contribution of cardiac surgery was much lower. Extrapolating data from one subset of patients to a second subset with quite different characteristics is a conceptual fallacy.     

Mechanism of action of insulin in diabetic patients: a dose-related effect on glucose production and utilisation

Six insulin-requiring diabetics were studied after insulin had been withheld for 24 hours. On three separate occasions each received a two-hour infusion of insulin at a low dose (2·6 U/h) and a high dose (10·6 U/h) and an infusion of saline as control. The rates of production and utilisation of glucose were measured isotopically. The rate of fall of plasma glucose concentration was faster on the high-dose infusion of insulin than on the low, whereas the fall in plasma free fatty acids, glycerol, and keton bodies was the same on both insulin infusions. The mechanism whereby the two rates of insulin administration lowered plasma glucose concentration differed: during the low-dose infusion the decrease in the glucose concentration was produced entirely by a fall of hepatic glucose output, whereas during the high-dose insulin infusion the glucose concentration fell because both the rate of glucose production fell and the rate of glucose utilisation rose. In all experiments there was a direct relation between a fall in serum potassium concentration and the fall in plasma glucose concentration irrespective of the mechanism that reduced the glucose concentration.These results indicate that in uncontrolled diabetics low-dose insulin infusions lower the blood glucose concentration entirely by reducing glucose production from the liver and that the effect of insulin on potassium transport is independent of its effect on glucose uptake.     

Effect of famine on fertility in a rural area of Bangladesh

Data on household socioeconomic status collected in the 1974 census and registration data on births, deaths, and migrations for the 1974-77 period from the Demographic Surveillance System of the International Centre for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh, were used to investigate the effects of the 1974-75 famine on differential fertility in a rural population of Bangladesh. Occupation of household head was used as a measure of socioeconomic status. Overall, fertility declined by 34% over the 1975-76 period and increased by 17% in 1976-77 from the 1974-75 figure. Significantly lower fertility was observed in 1975-76, irrespective of socioeconomic status, but the lower socioeconomic groups were affected more than the higher groups. Post-famine fertility was significantly higher only in the 2 middle occupation categories. The age-specific fertility rates suggest that the famine affected all age groups. The post-famine fertility was higher than that of 1974-75 in all but those aged below 20. At age 40 and over the recovery was slight. Husband-wife separation showed an increase during the famine and particularly among the lower socioeconomic groups. The males of the lower socioeconomic households migrated to other regions to obtain food for the family, thus affecting frequency of coitus. The decline in fertility may be due to several factors: deferred marriage; increase in divorces and husband-wife separations; high fetal wastage; voluntary fertility control through contraception, abstention, or induced abortion; and infecundability. An indirect measure of marriage rate indicated that fewer couples entered into marriage in 1974-75, particularly in the lower socioeconomic groups. Both the higher and lower socioeconomic groups were affected by the famine but the precise mechanisms were not the same. At this stage, it is not feasible to estimate the contribution of each factor to the fertility decline. The lower socioeconomic groups were more affected by husband-wife separations and deferred marriages; the higher socioeconomic groups were affected by mental stress and anxiety.     

A naturally occurring epizootic caused by Sendai virus in breeding and aging rodent colonies. I. Infection in the mouse.

An acute Sendai virus epizootic occurred simultaneously in a breeding colony, in experimental and stock animal rooms, and in a colony of aging mice. During the 2-month period that the infection was at its maximum, death rates were approximately doubled. In some strains, the preweanling death rate reached 100%. RFM and BALB/c mice were most susceptible and NZB mice least susceptible. The mortality during the period of Sendai virus infection was increased for most strains and age groups except for the oldest female RFM and NZB mice. Death rates during the epizootic were lowest in young adult mice (greater than 10 weeks of age) and highest in the very young mice (less than 10 weeks of age) and in the oldest male and the moderately aged female mice. Although a substantial number of older mice died during the epizootic, examination of the age-specific death rates indicated that the increase in deaths remained relatively constant for all ages over 10 weeks. This showed that the older mice were not more susceptible to Sendai virus infection. As a sequela of the epizootic, focal chronic pneumonia was found in 10-40% of the mice coming to necropsy even 1 year later.     

Severity of notified whooping cough.

An analysis was made of the severity of over 8000 cases of whooping cough notified from October 1974 to March 1975. Ten per cent of these patients were admitted to hospital and there were 10 deaths. Severity was directly related to age, the disease being most severe in children under 1 year, especially those under 6 months. There was some evidence that previous vaccination reduced the severity of the disease, but the vaccination programme does not cover very young children, and for them whooping cough is a dangerous disease.     

Relationship between suicide and myocardial infarction with regard to changing physical environmental conditions

In recent years, the possible association of changes in mortality from cardiovascular disease and myocardial infarction (MI) and deaths related to violence and the suicide rate has been repeatedly discussed. This study examined the relationship between cosmic physical changes (solar, geomagnetic and other space activity parameters) and changes in the total number of in-hospital and MI-related deaths and deaths from suicide to determine if a relationship exists between the distribution of total and MI-related deaths with suicide over time; some differences in the serotonergic mechanisms involved in the pathogenesis of MI and suicide were also taken into account. All suicides (n=2359) registered in the State of Israel from 1981 to 1989 (108 months) were analysed and compared with the total number of deaths (n=15601) and deaths from MI (n=1573) in a large university hospital over 180 months (1974–1989). The following were the main features of the Results. (1) Monthly suicide rate was correlated with space proton flux (r=0.42,P=0.0001) and with geomagnetic activity (r=–0.22,P=0.03). (2) Total hospital and MI-related deaths were correlated with solar activity parameters (r=0.35,P<0.001) and radiowave propagation (r=0.52-0.44,P<0.001), an with proton flux (r=–0.3 to –0.26,P<0.01). (3) Monthly suicide distribution over 108 months was correlated with MI (r=–0.33,P=0.0005) and total hospital mortality (r=–0.22,P=0.024). (4) Gender differences were prominent. We conclude that the monthly distributions of suicides and deaths from MI are adversely related to many environmental physical parameters and negatively correlated with each other.     

Metabolic effects of low-dose incremental insulin infusion in diabetic man

An incremental insulin infusion technique to assess insulin action at physiological circulating levels in diabetic man is described. Insulin was infused during sequential one hour periods at rates of 0.01, 0.05 and 0.10 u/kg/h. Serum free insulin concentrations had reached a plateau by the second 30 minutes of each infusion period. Blood glucose concentrations fell at a similar rate during the two lower rates of insulin infusion, but the fall was significantly greater with the highest insulin infusion. Glucose production and utilisation were measured isotopically using a 3-3H glucose infusion technique. Glucose production was inhibited with the lowest insulin infusion rate and a marked increase in glucose metabolic clearance rate occurred with the highest insulin infusion. Key intermediary metabolites were measured and blood glycerol, total ketone bodies, and plasma non-esterified fatty acids fell with the lowest insulin infusion rate. It is concluded that this technique allows identification of the effect of insulin upon different metabolic processes.     

Screening for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia in north east Scotland shows fall in incidence and mortality from invasive cancer with concomitant rise in preinvasive disease.

OBJECTIVE--To assess the effect of screening for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia on the incidence of and mortality from invasive squamous cell carcinoma of cervix in north east Scotland and to discover why cases of invasive cancer still occur. DESIGN--(a) Analysis of data on cases of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia obtained from the cytology data bank; (b) analysis of data on 612 women presenting with invasive squamous cancer during 1968-91, obtained from cancer registry and hospital records; (c) analysis of death rates obtained from the registrar general''s (Scotland) annual reports, the Information Services Division of the Home and Health Department (Scotland), and local records for 1974-91; (d) case-control studies on 282 cases of invasive cancer and 108 deaths which occurred in 1982-91. Cases were matched with two controls both for age and for having a negative smear test result at the time of presentation of the case. SETTING--North east Scotland (Grampian region, Orkney, and Shetland). SUBJECTS--Women (n = 306,608) who had had cervical smear tests between 1960 and 1991. RESULTS--There had been a substantial increase in cases of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade III since 1982. The incidence of invasive cancer has fallen since the start of screening in 1960, the fall occurring mainly in the well screened age group 40-69 years. There was a rise in women aged under 40 and over 70. Women with invasive disease seen between 1982 and 1991 mostly presented at stage I. Of these, half were unscreened, one third were poorly screened, 11% were found in retrospect to have had abnormal cells, 3% had recurrence of disease after treatment for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade III, and 3% were lost to follow up. Death rates had fallen, most noticeably in women aged 45-64, who had had the opportunity to be screened and rescreened. There was a disturbing rise in deaths among women under 45. Most deaths (65%) occurred in unscreened women. Case-control studies showed that the longer the time and absence of a smear test before presentation the higher was the risk of invasive cancer and of death. CONCLUSIONS--Screening has been effective in reducing the incidence of and mortality from cervical cancer in north east Scotland. Most cases and deaths occurred in unscreened women or in those who had had few smears at long intervals. An increase in cases of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade III in women screened for the first time occurred during 1982-91.     

Retrospective study of 1000 deaths from injury in England and Wales

One thousand consecutive deaths from injury in 11 coroner''s districts in England and Wales were reviewed by four independent assessors, who studied necropsy reports to identify deaths in hospital that might have been preventable. Of 514 patients admitted to hospital alive, 102 deaths (20%) were judged by all four assessors to have been potentially preventable. When those cases in which three out of four assessors considered that the death was preventable were added the total rose to 170 (33%). Nearly two thirds of all non-central nervous system deaths were judged to have been preventable. The median age of the 170 patients whose deaths were preventable was 41, and the mean Injury Severity Score was 29. Further analysis suggested that the preventable deaths were principally the result of failure to stop bleeding and prevent hypoxia and the absence of, or delay in, surgical treatment.The results closely parallel those from similar studies from the United States and suggest that there are serious deficiencies in the services for managing severe injury in England and Wales. Debate is needed now on how to correct these deficiencies. In particular, the place of trauma centres must be considered.