Meta-analysis of phenotypic selection on flowering phenology suggests that early flowering plants are favoured

Flowering times of plants are important life-history components and it has previously been hypothesized that flowering phenologies may be currently subject to natural selection or be selectively neutral. In this study we reviewed the evidence for phenotypic selection acting on flowering phenology using ordinary and phylogenetic meta-analysis. Phenotypic selection exists when a phenotypic trait co-varies with fitness; therefore, we looked for studies reporting an association between two components of flowering phenology (flowering time or flowering synchrony) with fitness. Data sets comprising 87 and 18 plant species were then used to assess the incidence and strength of phenotypic selection on flowering time and flowering synchrony, respectively. The influence of dependence on pollinators, the duration of the reproductive event, latitude and plant longevity as moderators of selection were also explored. Our results suggest that selection favours early flowering plants, but the strength of selection is influenced by latitude, with selection being stronger in temperate environments. However, there is no consistent pattern of selection on flowering synchrony. Our study demonstrates that phenotypic selection on flowering time is consistent and relatively strong, in contrast to previous hypotheses of selective neutrality, and has implications for the evolution of temperate floras under global climate change.     

The strength of assortative mating for flowering date and its basis in individual variation in flowering schedule

Although it has been widely asserted that plants mate assortatively by flowering time, there is virtually no published information on the strength or causes of phenological assortment in natural populations. When strong, assortative mating can accelerate the evolution of plant reproductive phenology through its inflationary effect on genetic variance. We estimated potential assortative mating for flowering date in 31 old‐field species in Ontario, Canada. For each species, we constructed a matrix of pairwise mating probabilities from the individual flowering schedules, that is the number of flower deployed on successive dates. The matrix was used to estimate the phenotypic correlation between mates, ρ, for flowering date. We also developed a measure of flowering synchrony within species, S, based upon the eigenstructure of the mating matrix. The mean correlation between pollen recipients and potential donors for flowering date was  = 0.31 (range: 0.05–0.63). A strong potential for assortative mating was found among species with high variance in flowering date, flowering schedules of short duration and skew towards early flower deployment. Flowering synchrony, S, was negatively correlated with potential assortment (r = ?0.49), but we go on to show that although low synchrony is a necessary condition for phenological assortative mating, it may not be sufficient to induce assortment for a given phenological trait. The potential correlation between mates showed no seasonal trend; thus, as climate change imposes selection on phenology through longer growing seasons, spring‐flowering species are no more likely to experience an accelerated evolutionary response than summer species.     

Herbarium records identify sensitivity of flowering phenology of eucalypts to climate: Implications for species response to climate change

Flowering phenology is very sensitive to climate and with increasing global warming the flowering time of plants is shifting to earlier or later dates. Changes in flowering times may affect species reproductive success, associated phenological events, species synchrony, and community composition. Long‐term data on phenological events can provide key insights into the impacts of climate on phenology. For Australia, however, limited data availability restricts our ability to assess the impacts of climate change on plant phenology. To address this limitation other data sources must be explored such as the use of herbarium specimens to conduct studies on flowering phenology. This study uses herbarium specimens for investigating the flowering phenology of five dominant and commercially important Eucalyptus species of south‐eastern Australia and the consequences of climate variability and change on flowering phenology. Relative to precipitation and air humidity, mean temperature of the preceding 3 months was the most influential factor on the flowering time for all species. In response to a temperature increment of 1°C, a shift in the timing of flowering of 14.1–14.9 days was predicted for E. microcarpa and E. tricarpa while delays in flowering of 11.3–15.5 days were found for E. obliqua, E. radiata and E. polyanthemos. Eucalyptus polyanthemos exhibited the greatest sensitivity to climatic variables. The study demonstrates that herbarium data can be used to detect climatic signals on flowering phenology for species with a long flowering duration, such as eucalypts. The robust relationship identified between temperature and flowering phenology indicates that shifts in flowering times will occur under predicted climate change which may affect reproductive success, fitness, plant communities and ecosystems.     

Effects of plant size and weather on the flowering phenology of the organ pipe cactus (Stenocereus thurberi)

Background and Aims

Flowering phenology is a critical life-history trait that influences reproductive success. It has been shown that genetic, climatic and other factors such as plant size affect the timing of flowering and its duration. The spatial and temporal variation in the reproductive phenology of the columnar cactus Stenocereus thurberi and its association with plant size and environmental cues was studied.

Methods

Flowering was monitored during 3 years in three populations of S. thurberi along a latitudinal gradient. Plant size was related to phenological parameters. The actual and past weather were used for each site and year to investigate the environmental correlates of flowering.

Key Results

There was significant variation in the timing of flowering within and among populations. Flowering lasted 4 months in the southern population and only 2 months in the northern population. A single flowering peak was evident in each population, but ocurred at different times. Large plants produced more flowers, and bloomed earlier and for a longer period than small plants. Population synchrony increased as the mean duration of flowering per individual decreased. The onset of flowering is primarily related to the variance in winter minimum temperatures and the duration to the autumn–winter mean maximum temperature, whereas spring mean maximum temperature is best correlated with synchrony.

Conclusions

Plant size affects individual plant fecundity as well as flowering time. Thus the population structure strongly affects flowering phenology. Indications of clinal variation in the timing of flowering and reproductive effort suggest selection pressures related to the arrival of migrating pollinators, climate and resource economy in a desert environment. These pressures are likely to be relaxed in populations where individual plants can attain large sizes.Key words: Flowering phenology, optimal timing, plant size, Sonoran Desert, Stenocereus thurberi, temperature     

Flowering phenology of a palm community in a central Amazon forest

The flowering phenology of 27 taxa of palms in a lowland moist forest in the central Amazon was recorded over a 40 month period. Phenological data were transformed into measures, of synchrony, regularity, and duration. Flowering was observed at all times of year and there was no correlation with rainfall either for the current month or for any monthly lag interval. The 27 taxa were divided into three pollination groups—weevil, bee/fly, or beetle—based on their behavior at anthesis. Phenology was significantly correlated with pollination groups. Weevilpollinated palms had higher synchrony and shorter duration of flowering than other groups. Bee/fly-pollinated palms had lower synchrony and longer duration of flowering. The beetle-pollinated palms were intermediate between the two other groups. Seasonal regularity of flowering was similar in all three groups. We suggest that, at least inBactris, taxa exhibit staggered flowering.     

Inter and intraspecific variation on reproductive phenology of the Brazilian Atlantic forest Rubiaceae: ecology and phylogenetic constraints

The reproductive phenology of seven species of Rubiaceae from the Brazilian Atlantic rain forest was compared to evaluate the occurrence of phylogenetic constraints on flowering and fruiting phenologies. Since phenological patterns can be affected by phylogenetic constraints, we expected that reproductive phenology would be similar among plants within a family or genus, occurring during the same time (or season) of the year. Observations on flowering and fruiting phenology were carried out monthly, from December 1996 to January 1998, at Núcleo Picinguaba, Parque Estadual da Serra do Mar, Ubatuba, S?o Paulo State, Brazil. Nine phenological variables were calculated to characterize, quantify and compare the reproductive phenology of the Rubiaceae species. The flowering patterns were different among the seven species studied, and the Kruskal-Wallis test indicated significant differences in flowering duration first flowering, peak flowering and flowering synchrony. The peaks and patterns of fruiting intensity were different among the Rubiaceae species studied and they differed significantly from conspecifics in the phenological variables fruiting duration, fruiting peak date, and fruiting synchrony (Kruskal-Wallis test). Therefore, we found no evidence supporting the phylogenetic hypotheses, and climate does not seem to constrain flowering and fruiting patterns of the Rubiaceae species in the understory of the Atlantic forest.     

Phenotypic selection on flowering phenology and size in two dioecious plant species with different pollen vectors

Dioecious plants may be pollinated biotically by animals or abiotically via wind or water currents. It has been hypothesized that these two types of pollen vectors might impose contrasting selective pressures on plant flowering phenology. In the present study we describe the flowering phenology of two sympatric dioecious species with contrasting pollination modes: Mercurialis perennis (wind‐pollinated) and Tamus communis (insect‐pollinated). We estimated selection differentials and gradients for flowering time and flowering synchrony. As flowering time might depend on the accumulation of enough internal resources, we also estimated direct and indirect selection on plant size. Both species have male‐biased sexual ratios, and males are bigger and produce larger flower displays than females, but only in T. communis do males bloom earlier and for longer than females. Selection gradients suggest that selection tends to favor early‐flowering females of T. communis. There is no evidence of direct current selection on the flowering phenology of M. perennis. Intersexual differences in phenology fit with sex allocation and sexual selection theories. As we hypothesized, phenology of the animal‐pollinated species is under stronger selection than that of the wind‐pollinated species and we discuss the potential role of pollen vectors in shaping the flowering phenologies of the study species.     

Contrasting flowering phenology and species richness in abiotically and biotically pollinated angiosperms

Abstract Biotic pollination is thought to correlate with increased interspecific competition for pollination among plants and a higher speciation rate. In this study we compared patterns of flowering phenology and species richness between abiotically (wind) and biotically pollinated plants, using phylogenetically independent contrasts. We compiled phenological data from eight local seasonal floras, in which we found geographically overlapping sister clades. Of 65 documented origins of wind pollination, we were able to use up to 17 independent contrasts. In contrast to previous studies we found no difference in global species richness between wind- and biotically pollinated sister clades. Regarding phenology, we found wider phenological spread in biotically pollinated clades, earlier flowering onset in wind-pollinated trees, but no difference in duration of flowering between pollination modes. These results corroborate previous views that niche space is more constrained for wind-pollinated species, and that niche partitioning is less important between wind-pollinated plants compared to plants pollinated by animals.     

Dissecting components of flowering pattern: size effects on female fitness

Flowering synchrony is essential for plant reproductive success, especially in the case of small‐sized populations of self‐incompatible species. Closely related to synchrony, flowering intensity influences pollinator attraction and pollinator movements. Thus, a high flowering intensity may increase pollinator attraction but, at the same time, may also increase the probability of geitonogamous pollinations. Depending on the mating system, the female fitness of plants in small populations may be affected by both the positive effects of higher flowering synchrony and pollinator attraction and the negative effects of geitonogamous pollinations induced by a high flowering intensity. It was hypothesized that different‐sized plants in a population would show contrasting flowering patterns, resulting in differences in pollinator behaviour. These influences could result in differences in mating and female reproductive success. This hypothesis was tested by studying the flowering pattern of Erodium paularense (Geraniaceae), a rare and endangered endemic of central Spain. The temporal distribution of flower production was explored throughout the reproductive season, and the probability of xenogamy and geitonogamy and their relationship to plant size and fitness components were calculated. The analysis of this partially self‐compatible species showed diverse flowering patterns related to different plant sizes. Small plants produced a larger number of seeds per fruit in spite of having lower values of flowering synchrony. By contrast, large plants produced a larger number of seeds from geitonogamous pollinations. The effect of different flower displays and outcrossing rates on seed set varied throughout the season in the different groups. Our findings highlight the relevance of individual plant size‐dependent phenology on female reproductive success and, in particular, on the relationship between flowering synchrony and fitness. © 2008 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2008, 156 , 227–236.     

迁地保育植物花期物候对迁入地气候变化的响应

以中国科学院武汉植物园内栽培的长果秤锤树(Sinojackia dolichocarpa C. J. Qi)、山白树(Sinowilsonia henryi Hemsl.)、夏腊梅(Sinocalycanthus chinensis Cheng et S. Y. Chang)、紫茎(Stewartia sinensis Rehd. et Wils.)和绒毛皂荚(Gleditsia vestita Chun et How ex B. G. Li) 5种迁地保育植物为对象,通过2008-2016年观察记录的初花期物候及整个花期长度的数据,研究花期的年际变化规律及其与迁入地武汉气候因子的相关性。结果显示:(1)从初花期来看,长果秤锤树的初花期每年提前1.25 d,紫茎的初花期每年推迟1.35 d,绒毛皂荚的初花期每年推迟1.22 d。(2)从花期长度来看,山白树的花期每年增加1.72 d,夏蜡梅的花期每年减少1.62 d,紫茎的花期每年增加0.32 d。(3)从花期与气候因子的相关性来看,年降水量、年平均相对湿度、 10℃有效积温、花前 10℃的有效积温是影响这5种植物初花期、花期长度的主要气候因子;不同物种间影响花期的主要气候因子有所差异。     

Tree size and its relationship with flowering phenology and reproductive output in Wild Nutmeg trees

Reproductive strategies, sexual selection, and their relationship with the phenotype of individuals are topics widely studied in animals, but this information is less abundant for plants. Variability in flowering phenology among individuals has direct impact on their fitness, but how reproductive phenology is affected by the size of the individuals needs further study. We quantified the flowering intensity, length, and reproductive synchronization of two sympatric dioecious Wild Nutmeg tree species (Virola, Myristicaceae) in the Brazilian Atlantic forest, and analyzed its relationships with tree size. Two distinct strategies in flowering timing and intensity were found between species (annual versus biennial flowering), and among individuals in the annual flowering species (extended versus peak flowering). Only for the annual flowering species the reproductive output is related to tree size and large trees present proportionally higher flower coverage, and lower synchronization than smaller ones. Flowering is massive and highly synchronized in the biennial species. Sex ratios are not different from 1:1 in the two species, and in the two segregated reproductive subgroups in the biennial flowering species. The biennial flowering at individual level is a novelty among reproductive patterns in plants, separating the population in two reproductive subgroups. A proportional increase in the reproductive output with size exists only for the annual flowering species. A biennial flowering can allow resource storage favouring massive flowering for all the individuals diluting their relationship with size.     

Relationships among time, frequency, and duration of flowering in tropical rain forest trees

Flowering patterns are defined by the timing, duration, and frequency of flowering. Plants, particularly in the tropics, vary enormously with respect to these main variables of flowering. We used data from 302 tree species in a wet tropical forest to test a series of predictions regarding timing, duration, and frequency of flowering and examined the effect of each variable on the other two. Because timing, duration, and frequency of flowering can be constrained by phylogeny, we analyzed the data before and after considering phylogenetic effects at the level of family. Flowering activity peaked in the first wet season from May to July, refuting our prediction of peak flowering during the dry season. Our prediction that most species should flower several times a year was supported when species flowering more or less continually throughout the year were included in this category. Our prediction that supra-annually flowering species should be the least frequent was also supported with some qualifications. As we predicted, species flowering several times a year bloomed relatively briefly per flowering episode. Our prediction of shorter flowering duration for species flowering in the dry season and for those with a temporal separation between flowering and vegetative growth was also supported. Furthermore, supra-annually flowering species flowered for a shorter duration than annually flowering species and had a higher probability of flowering in the dry season compared to episodically or annually flowering species. Phylogeny significantly constrained variation in flowering frequency, but not in flowering time or duration, among confamilial species.     

Predator satiation and extreme mast seeding in 11 species of Chionochloa (Poaceae)

Variation in annual flowering effort is described for 16 long datasets from 11 species of Chionochloa (Poaceae) in New Zealand. All populations exhibited extreme mast seeding. The most variable species was C. crassiuscula (coefficient of variation, CV=3.02) over 26 years at Takahe Valley, Fiordland, which is the highest published CV we know of worldwide. The other populations also had high CVs (lowest CV=1.42, mean CV=1.84) which were higher than for other well‐studied genera such as Picea, Pinus and Quercus. There were also frequent years of zero flowering (mean across all populations was 37.2% zero years; maximum 53% for C. rubra and C. crassiuscula over 19 years) whereas zero years are rare in other published masting datasets.Flowering was highly synchronous among species within a site (mean r=0.886), and also (though significantly less so) among sites. Among sites, synchrony was not significantly higher within‐species (mean r=0.711) than between‐species (r=0.690). Warm summer temperatures led to heavy flowering the following summer. Flowering synchrony increased with increasing synchrony in local deseasonalised summer temperatures, and decreased with increasing distance between sites.Mast seeding has been shown in Chionochloa to reduce losses to specialist flower or seed predators. Among‐species synchrony may be adaptive if species share a common seed predator. Developing seeds of at least 10 Chionochloa species are attacked by larvae of an undescribed cecidomyiid. In Takahe Valley, where masting is most pronounced, cecidomyiids attacked all six Chionochloa species in all four years studied. Mean annual losses were almost constant (10.0 to 13.4%) while flowering effort varied 100‐fold. The invariant losses are consistent with other evidence that the cecidomyiid may have extended diapause, which would make it harder to satiate by mast seeding. We hypothesise that one possible factor favouring such extremely high levels of mast seeding in Chionochloa is that its seed predator is very hard to satiate.     

Variable flowering phenology and pollinator use in a community suggest future phenological mismatch

Recent anthropogenic climate change is strongly associated with average shifts toward earlier seasonal timing of activity (phenology) in temperate-zone species. Shifts in phenology have the potential to alter ecological interactions, to the detriment of one or more interacting species. Recent models predict that detrimental phenological mismatch may increasingly occur between plants and their pollinators. One way to test this prediction is to examine data from ecological communities that experience large annual weather fluctuations. Taking this approach, we analyzed interactions over a four-year period among 132 plant species and 665 pollinating insect species within a Mediterranean community. For each plant species we recorded onset and duration of flowering and number of pollinator species. Flowering onset varied among years, and a year of earlier flowering of a species tended to be a year of fewer species pollinating its flowers. This relationship was attributable principally to early-flowering species, suggesting that shifts toward earlier phenology driven by climate change may reduce pollination services due to phenological mismatch. Earlier flowering onset of a species also was associated with prolonged flowering duration, but it is not certain that this will counterbalance any negative effects of lower pollinator species richness on plant reproductive success. Among plants with different life histories, annuals were more severely affected by flowering–pollinator mismatches than perennials. Specialized plant species (those attracting a smaller number of pollinator species) did not experience disproportionate interannual fluctuations in phenology. Thus they do not appear to be faced with disproportionate fluctuations in pollinator species richness, contrary to the expectation that specialists are at greatest risk of losing mutualistic interactions because of climate change.     

Prediction of flowering time in Brassica oleracea using a quantitative trait loci-based phenology model

Uniformly developing plants with a predictable time to harvest or flowering under unfavourable climate conditions are a major breeding goal in crop species. The main flowering regulators and their response to environmental signals have been identified in Arabidopsis thaliana and homologues of flowering genes have been mapped in many crop species. However, it remains unclear which genes determine within and across genotype flowering time variability in Brassica oleracea and how genetic flowering time regulation is influenced by environmental factors. The goal of this study is model-based prediction of flowering time in a B. oleracea DH-line population using genotype-specific and quantitative trait loci (QTL) model input parameters. A QTL-based phenology model accounting for genotypic differences in temperature responses during vernalisation and non-temperature-sensitive durations from floral transition to flowering was evaluated in two field trials. The model was parameterised using original genotype-specific model input parameters and QTL effects. The genotype-specific model parameterisation showed accurate predictability of flowering time if floral induction was promoted by low temperature (R(2) = 0.81); unfavourably high temperatures reduced predictability (R(2) = 0.65). Replacing original model input parameters by QTL effects reduced the capability of the model to describe across-genotype variability (R(2) = 0.59 and 0.50). Flowering time was highly correlated with a model parameter accounting for vernalisation effects. Within-genotype variability was significantly correlated with the same parameter if temperature during the inductive phase was high. We conclude that flowering time variability across genotypes was largely due to differences in vernalisation response, although it has been shown elsewhere that the candidate FLOWERING LOCUS C (FLC) did not co-segregate with flowering time in the same population. FLC independent vernalisation pathways have been described for several species, but not yet for B. oleracea.     

The phenology of growth and reproduction in plants

The study of phenological aspects of plants involves the observation, recording and interpretation of the timing of their life history events. This review considers the phenology of leafing, flowering and fruit production in a range of species and communities. The selective forces (both abiotic and biotic) that influence the timing of these events are discussed. Within the limits imposed by phylogenetic constraints, the phenological patterns (timing, frequency, duration, degree of synchrony, etc.) of each phase are probably the result of a compromise between a variety of selective pressures, such as seasonal climatic changes, resource availability, and the presence of pollinators, predators and seed dispersers. Many studies on flowering times stress the role of interactions between plant species which share pollinators or predators. The timing of fruiting plays a key role in controlling the abundance and variety of obligate frugivores in many tropical communities. The importance of long-term recording is stressed, particularly in species which fruit irregularly. An understanding of the phenology of plants is crucial to the understanding of community function and diversity.     

Phylogenetic and climatic constraints drive flowering phenological patterns in a subtropical nature reserve

Aims Exploring flowering patterns and detecting processes are essential when probing into the nature of reproductive traits during the life history and the interactions among different evolutionary clades. Such patterns are believed to be influenced by many factors, but quantifying these impacts at the community-level remains poorly understood.Methods We investigated the flowering patterns based on long-term herbarium records in a given area from subtropical forest regions in southern China. We obtained 5258 herbarium voucher specimens collected from the Dinghushan National Nature Reserve (DNNR) belonging to 166 families, 943 genera and 2059 species and examined the month when each species was flowering during the period 1920–2007.Important findings The results showed that plants flowered sequentially almost throughout the whole year, showing the characteristics of subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests. Flowering spectrums of the entire flora and the four life forms exhibited a clear unimodality that is probably typical of subtropical forest communities. Flowering patterns of the DNNR were positively correlated with mean rainfall, mean air temperature and mean sunshine duration. Median flowering dates of the 38 large species-rich families ranged from early April to late August; 25 families exhibited significant unimodal distribution patterns, whereas the remaining families were unclear or bimodal. Median flowering dates of the 10 most species-rich genera ranged from middle May to later July. While the results are consistent with climatic factors playing a general role in flowering patterns, median flowering dates varied significantly among species-rich families and genera, suggesting that phylogenies could provide specific constraints in subtropical forests.     

Maintenance of temporal synchrony between syrphid flies and floral resources despite differential phenological responses to climate

Variation in species’ responses to abiotic phenological cues under climate change may cause changes in temporal overlap among interacting taxa, with potential demographic consequences. Here, we examine associations between the abiotic environment and plant–pollinator phenological synchrony using a long‐term syrphid fly–flowering phenology dataset (1992–2011). Degree‐days above freezing, precipitation, and timing of snow melt were investigated as predictors of phenology. Syrphids generally emerge after flowering onset and end their activity before the end of flowering. Neither flowering nor syrphid phenology has changed significantly over our 20‐year record, consistent with a lack of directional change in climate variables over the same time frame. Instead we document interannual variability in the abiotic environment and phenology. Timing of snow melt was the best predictor of flowering onset and syrphid emergence. Snow melt and degree‐days were the best predictors of the end of flowering, whereas degree‐days and precipitation best predicted the end of the syrphid period. Flowering advanced at a faster rate than syrphids in response to both advancing snow melt and increasing temperature. Different rates of phenological advancements resulted in more days of temporal overlap between the flower–syrphid community in years of early snow melt because of extended activity periods. Phenological synchrony at the community level is therefore likely to be maintained for some time, even under advancing snow melt conditions that are evident over longer term records at our site. These results show that interacting taxa may respond to different phenological cues and to the same cues at different rates but still maintain phenological synchrony over a range of abiotic conditions. However, our results also indicate that some individual plant species may overlap with the syrphid community for fewer days under continued climate change. This highlights the role of interannual variation in these flower–syrphid interactions and shows that species‐level responses can differ from community‐level responses in nonintuitive ways.     

Flowering phenology of tree rhododendron along an elevation gradient in two sites in the Eastern Himalayas

Flowering phenology of tree rhododendron (Rhododendron arboreum Sm.) was monitored in situ along elevation gradients in two distinct ecological settings. Observations were carried out in Gaoligong Nature Reserve (GNR) in China and in the Kanchenjunga Conservation Area (KCA) in Nepal. Using the crown density method, flowering events of the selected species were recorded. Flowering duration and synchrony were determined within each site and along the elevation gradient in each study area. Our observations showed high synchrony throughout the elevation gradient, especially for peak flowering. Mean 15-day soil temperature, soil parameters (soil moisture, nitrogen, organic matter and pH), age of the observed trees, and site characteristics (litter cover, canopy cover, inclination) were related to mean initial and peak flowering dates using partial least squares regression (PLS). Results differed between the two sites, but winter temperature was the most important variable affecting the regression model for both initial flowering and peak flowering at both sites. After temperature, soil moisture was the most important variable for explaining initial flowering dates. The distribution of tree rhododendron indicates that it is able to grow in a wide range of habitats with different environmental conditions. The recent trend of rising winter-spring temperature and the detected bloom-advancing effect of high temperatures during this period suggest that tree rhododendron might expand its distributional range in response to global warming.