Using climatic suitability thresholds to identify past,present and future population viability

Often climatic niche models predict that any change in climatic conditions will impact species abundance or distribution. However, the accuracy of models that just incorporate climatic information to predict future species habitat use is widely debated. Alternatively, environmental conditions may simply need to be above some minimum threshold of climatic suitability, at which point, other factors drive population size. Using the example of nesting sites of loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) in the Mediterranean (n = 105), we developed climatic niche models to examine whether a climatic suitability threshold could be identified as a climatic indicator in order for large populations of a widespread species to exist. We then assessed the climatic suitability of sites above and below this threshold in the past (∼1900) and future (∼2100). Most large sites that are currently above the climatic threshold were above the threshold in the past and future, particularly when future nesting seasonality shifted to start 1–2 months earlier. Our analyses highlight the importance of future phenological shifts for maintaining suitability. Our results provide a positive outlook for sea turtle conservation, suggesting that climatic conditions may remain suitable in the future at sites that currently support large nesting populations. Our study also provides an alternative way of interpreting the outputs of climatic niche models, by generating a threshold as an index of a minimum climatic suitability required to sustain large populations. This type of approach offers the possibility to benefit from information provided by climate-driven models, while reducing their inherent uncertainties.     

Transmission potential of chikungunya virus and control measures: the case of Italy

During summer 2007 Italy has experienced an epidemic caused by Chikungunya virus - the first large outbreak documented in a temperate climate country - with approximately 161 laboratory confirmed cases concentrated in two bordering villages in North-Eastern Italy comprising 3,968 inhabitants. The seroprevalence was recently estimated to be 10.2%. In this work we provide estimates of the transmission potential of the virus and we assess the efficacy of the measures undertaken by public health authorities to control the epidemic spread. To such aim, we developed a model describing the temporal dynamics of the competent vector, known as Aedes albopictus, explicitly depending on climatic factors, coupled to an epidemic transmission model describing the spread of the epidemic in both humans and mosquitoes. The cumulative number of notified cases predicted by the model was 185 on average (95% CI 117-278), in good agreement with observed data. The probability of observing a major outbreak after the introduction of an infective human case was estimated to be in the range of 32%-76%. We found that the basic reproduction number was in the range of 1.8-6 but it could have been even larger, depending on the density of mosquitoes, which in turn depends on seasonal meteorological effects, besides other local abiotic factors. These results confirm the increasing risk of tropical vector-borne diseases in temperate climate countries, as a consequence of globalization. However, our results show that an epidemic can be controlled by performing a timely intervention, even if the transmission potential of Chikungunya virus is sensibly high.     

Estimating the Location and Spatial Extent of a Covert Anthrax Release

Rapidly identifying the features of a covert release of an agent such as anthrax could help to inform the planning of public health mitigation strategies. Previous studies have sought to estimate the time and size of a bioterror attack based on the symptomatic onset dates of early cases. We extend the scope of these methods by proposing a method for characterizing the time, strength, and also the location of an aerosolized pathogen release. A back-calculation method is developed allowing the characterization of the release based on the data on the first few observed cases of the subsequent outbreak, meteorological data, population densities, and data on population travel patterns. We evaluate this method on small simulated anthrax outbreaks (about 25–35 cases) and show that it could date and localize a release after a few cases have been observed, although misspecifications of the spore dispersion model, or the within-host dynamics model, on which the method relies can bias the estimates. Our method could also provide an estimate of the outbreak's geographical extent and, as a consequence, could help to identify populations at risk and, therefore, requiring prophylactic treatment. Our analysis demonstrates that while estimates based on the first ten or 15 observed cases were more accurate and less sensitive to model misspecifications than those based on five cases, overall mortality is minimized by targeting prophylactic treatment early on the basis of estimates made using data on the first five cases. The method we propose could provide early estimates of the time, strength, and location of an aerosolized anthrax release and the geographical extent of the subsequent outbreak. In addition, estimates of release features could be used to parameterize more detailed models allowing the simulation of control strategies and intervention logistics.     

Non-linear feedback processes and a latitudinal gradient in the climatic effects determine green spruce aphid outbreaks in the UK

The role of climatic fluctuations in determining the dynamics of insect populations has been a classical problem in population ecology. Here, we use long-term annual data on green spruce aphid populations at nine localities in the UK for determining the importance of endogenous processes, local weather and large-scale climatic factors. We rely on diagnostic and modelling tools from population dynamic theory to analyse these long-term data and to determine the role of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and local weather as exogenous factors influencing aphid dynamics. Our modelling suggests that the key elements determining population fluctuations in green spruce aphid populations in the UK are the strong non-linear feedback structure, the high potential for population growth and the effects of winter and spring weather. The results indicate that the main effect of the NAO on green spruce aphid populations is operating through the effect of winter temperatures on the maximum per capita growth rate (R_m). In particular, we can predict quite accurately the occurrence of an outbreak by using a simple logistic model with weather as a perturbation effect. However, model predictions using different climatic variables showed a clear geographical signature. The NAO and winter temperature were best for predicting observed dynamics toward the southern localities, while spring temperature was a much better predictor of aphid dynamics at northern localities. Although aphid species are characterized by complex life-cycles, we emphasize the value of simple and general population dynamic models in predicting their dynamics.     

东亚飞蝗发生的生态因素辨识及监测预测

基于前人研究成果,对中国东亚飞蝗发生的孕灾环境及其主要影响生态因素进行辨识.结果表明:蝗灾的动态变化与气候变化关系密切;飞蝗分布界限受气候带的影响;发生基地具有类似的孕灾环境特征;飞蝗发生发展与水文、气候、土壤和植被等主要生态因素的一定指标阈值有密切关系;传统的飞蝗预测研究多着重分析各生态因子与飞蝗消长的数理统计相关关系,近年多在大尺度气候背景下探讨适宜中长期的预测方法,国内外利用遥感等多种现代化手段对蝗灾进行大范围监测.     

Radiotelemetry reveals differences in individual movement patterns between outbreak and non-outbreak Mormon cricket populations

Abstract.  1. Outbreaks of insect pest populations are common and can have devastating effects on natural communities and on agriculture. Little is known about the causes of these outbreaks or the causes of en masse migrations during outbreaks.
2. Flightless Mormon crickets ( Anabrus simplex ) were the focus of this study. They are a katydid species that forms large, dense, mobile groups (migratory bands) during outbreak periods, eating vegetation in their path.
3. Radiotelemetric methods were used to measure differences in movement rate and directionality in outbreak and non-outbreak populations, testing the hypothesis that these populations differ in their travel rate and consistency of direction.
4. Daily individual movement in outbreak populations differs substantially from non-outbreak populations that are at much lower density. In addition to large differences in distances travelled (1.6 km as compared with 1 m) and rates of travel, there is evidence for collective movement among individual Mormon crickets travelling in migratory bands.
5. These data suggest that the direction of group movement may be influenced by local environmental conditions such as wind direction and movement of nearby band members. This work forms the basis for ongoing work testing hypotheses about mass migrations in outbreak populations.     

Limited emigration from an outbreak of a forest pest insect

Population density and individual dispersal behaviour affect species' distribution dynamics. Population densities vary over time, and some species occasionally increase to very high numbers, for example during outbreaks. In such situations, populations are expected to expand into new areas as a result of density-dependent dispersal which sometimes even results in range expansion. A local population of the northern pine processionary moth Thaumetopoea pinivora has recently reached outbreak densities at the edge of its northern range at the southern tip of Gotland Island in the Baltic Sea. We first investigated whether the outbreak had resulted in establishment of populations in suitable habitats on Gotland Island outside the outbreak area. Six small populations were found that could potentially have originated from the outbreak area. However, data from 12 microsatellite markers strongly suggest that these populations did not originate from the recent outbreak. Genetic variability was not reduced in these small, isolated populations, and there were several unique alleles, indicating instead a different population history and that there has been no recent range expansion. In addition, there was apparent genetic isolation by geographic distance, implying that despite the high density of the outbreak population, significant gene flow has not occurred.     

Origin of an insect outbreak: escape in space or time from natural enemies?

Initiation of insect outbreaks is poorly understood, and may involve sporadic events that temporarily release insect populations from predation or parasitism. While studying a declining outbreak of the western tussock moth (Orgyia vetusta) on bush lupine (Lupinus arboreus), we witnessed the onset of a new tussock moth outbreak, separated by 1,000 m in space and 2 months in phenological timing from the original population. This new population underwent explosive growth for 2 years and then collapsed because of a massive die-off of lupines. We tested whether during its growth phase, this new outbreak benefited by escaping in either space or time from the natural enemies attacking the original population. In experimental populations on single bushes, we compared predation and parasitism at the sites of the new and the old outbreak. At the site of the old outbreak, we compared predation and parasitism early and late in the season. Parasitism was significantly lower and population growth significantly higher at the new outbreak site than the old one. Neither seasonal timing, predator exclusion, nor their interaction significantly affected survival at either site. Thus the new outbreak appeared to escape in space from parasitism. These results corroborate our previous experimental findings, which suggest that as predicted by theory, the interaction between the tussock moth and its parasitoids can produce large-scale spatial patterning in population densities.     

Reduction in size and fecundity of the autumnal moth, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Epirrita autumnata</Emphasis>, in the increase phase of a population cycle

Increasing fecundity with increasing density has been observed for many cyclic herbivore populations, including some forest Lepidoptera. We monitored population density, body size and reproductive capacity of the cyclic lepidopteran, the autumnal moth (Epirrita autumnata, Geometridae), from the early increase phase to the devastating outbreak density in northernmost Norway. Larval density of the species increased exponentially from 1998 to 2002 and remained at the outbreak level also in 2003. Within the same period, the body size and fecundity of individuals reduced as analysed from several parallel datasets on larvae, pupae and adults. In another study area in northernmost Finland, the density increase of the autumnal moth was moderate only, and true outbreak density was not attained during the study. Despite that, a reduction was again detected in the size and fecundity of individuals. Possible factors responsible for the reduced size and fecundity of individuals in the Norwegian population were quantitative shortage of foliage, rapid and delayed inducible resistances of the host, mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii), as well as crowding-induced responses of larvae. These factors likely acted in concert, although non-delayed responses to the density were emphasized. Our findings did not support the hypotheses of climatic release, inducible susceptibility of the host tree and mast depression (i.e. lowered chemical defence of the host tree after its mast seeding) as promoters of the fecundity-based density increase of the autumnal moth, since the reduced fecundity in relation to increased density was strongly against the predictions of these hypotheses. Therefore, we suggest that the density increase of autumnal moth populations is promoted by high survival rather than exceptionally high fecundity.     

Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome in Santa Cruz,Bolivia: Outbreak Investigation and Antibody Prevalence Study

We report the results of an investigation of a small outbreak of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in 2002 in the Department of Santa Cruz, Bolivia, where the disease had not previously been reported. Two cases were initially reported. The first case was a physician infected with Laguna Negra virus during a weekend visit to his ranch. Four other persons living on the ranch were IgM antibody-positive, two of whom were symptomatic for mild hantavirus pulmonary syndrome. The second case was a migrant sugarcane worker. Although no sample remained to determine the specific infecting hantavirus, a virus 90% homologous with Río Mamoré virus was previously found in small-eared pygmy rice rats (Oligoryzomys microtis) trapped in the area. An antibody prevalence study conducted in the region as part of the outbreak investigation showed 45 (9.1%) of 494 persons to be IgG positive, illustrating that hantavirus infection is common in Santa Cruz Department. Precipitation in the months preceding the outbreak was particularly heavy in comparison to other years, suggesting a possible climatic or ecological influence on rodent populations and risk of hantavirus transmission to humans. Hantavirus infection appears to be common in the Santa Cruz Department, but more comprehensive surveillance and field studies are needed to fully understand the epidemiology and risk to humans.     

Movement of outbreak populations of mountain pine beetle: influences of spatiotemporal patterns and climate

Insect outbreaks exert landscape-level influences, yet quantifying the relative contributions of various exogenous and endogenous factors that contribute to their pattern and spread remains elusive. We examine an outbreak of mountain pine beetle covering an 800 thousand ha area on the Chilcotin Plateau of British Columbia, Canada, during the 1970s and early 1980s. We present a model that incorporates the spatial and temporal arrangements of outbreaking insect populations, as well as various climatic factors that influence insect development. Onsets of eruptions of mountain pine beetle demonstrated landscape-level synchrony. On average, the presence of outbreaking populations was highly correlated with outbreaking populations within the nearest 18  km the same year and local populations within 6 km in the previous two years. After incorporating these spatial and temporal dependencies, we found that increasing temperatures contributed to explaining outbreak probabilities during this 15  yr outbreak. During collapse years, landscape-level synchrony declined while local synchrony values remained high, suggesting that in some areas host depletion was contributing to population decline. Model forecasts of outbreak propensity one year in advance at a 12 by 12  km scale provided 80% accuracy over the landscape, and never underestimated the occurrence of locally outbreaking populations. This model provides a flexible approach for linking temperature and insect population dynamics to spatial spread, and complements existing decision support tools for resource managers.     

Interpopulation quality in gypsy moths with implications for success of two pupal parasitoids: Brachymeria intermedia (Nees) and Coccygomimus turionellae (L.)*

Abstract.

• 1 Gypsy moth egg masses were collected from innocuous, release and outbreak populations and reared in the laboratory on synthetic diet under identical conditions.
• 2 Outbreak population gypsy moths hatched sooner, were smaller and less fecund than innocuous or release gypsy moths, but had a higher concentration of total carbohydrates in their haemolymph.
• 3 Pupae from each population source were submitted to parasitization by two pupal parasitoids. Emerging B.intermedia, an established parasitoid of the gypsy moth associated with outbreak populations, were largest on outbreak source gypsy moths. C. turionellae, not a usual parasitoid of the gypsy moth, were largest when emerging from innocuous or release population gypsy moths. Implications for population dynamics of the gypsy moth are discussed.

     

Intra- and interspecific morphological variation in the field mouse species Apodemus argenteus and A. speciosus in the Japanese archipelago: the role of insular isolation and biogeographic gradients

Two species of field mice, Apodemus argenteus and A. speciosus, occur in sympatry across the Japanese archipelago. The inter- and intraspecific patterns of morphological differentiation have been evaluated, using a Fourier analysis of the mandible outline. The relative importance of the effect of insular isolation and latitudinal climatic gradient on the size and shape of the two species was assessed by a comparison of the populations from the large island of Honshu and the surrounding small-island populations. The size variation in A. argenteus is correlated with the climatic gradient whilst the shape variation corresponds mainly to a random differentiation of the small-island populations from a Honshu-like basic morphological pattern. A. speciosus displays increased size on small islands, and its shape variation is related to both the climatic gradient and insularity. Finally, the two species are differentiated by both the size and shape of the mandible across the Japanese archipelago, suggesting that interspecific competition between both species is reduced via niche partitioning. Our results emphasize the importance of insular isolation on shape differentiation, but a part of the morphological differentiation is also related to the latitudinal climatic gradient. Isolation on small islands could have favoured such a response to environmental factors by lowering the gene flow that prevents almost any significant differentiation within Honshu populations.     

Genetic variation in Echinacea angustifolia along a climatic gradient

BACKGROUNDS AND AIMS: Echinacea angustifolia is a widespread species distributed throughout the Great Plains region of North America. Genetic differentiation among populations was investigated along a 1500 km north-south climatic gradient in North America, a region with no major geographical barriers. The objective of the study was to determine if genetic differentiation of populations could be explained by an isolation-by-distance model or by associations with climatic parameters known to affect plant growth and survival. METHODS: Historical climatic data were used to define the nature of the climatic gradient and AFLP markers were used to establish patterns of population genetic differentiation among ten Echinacea populations collected from North Dakota to Oklahoma. A total of 1290 fragments were scored using six EcoRI/MseI and three PstI/MseI primer combinations. Assessment of the correlation between climatic, genetic and geographic distances was assessed by Mantel and partial Mantel tests. KEY RESULTS: PstI/MseI combinations produced significantly fewer fragments, but a larger percentage was unique compared with EcoRI/MseI markers. Using estimates of F(ST), populations in Oklahoma and southern Kansas were identified as the most divergent from the other populations. Both the neighbour-joining tree and principal co-ordinate analysis clustered the populations in a north-south spatial orientation. About 60% of the genetic variation was found within populations, 20% among populations and the remaining 20% was partitioned among groups that were defined by the topology of the neighbour-joining tree. Significant support was found for the isolation-by-distance model independent of the effects of annual mean precipitation, but not from annual mean temperature and freeze-free days. CONCLUSIONS: Echinacea angustifolia populations exhibit genetic divergence along a north-south climatic gradient. The data support an isolation-by-distance restriction in gene flow that is independent of annual mean precipitation.     

Recovery potential of a western lowland gorilla population following a major Ebola outbreak: results from a ten year study

Investigating the recovery capacity of wildlife populations following demographic crashes is of great interest to ecologists and conservationists. Opportunities to study these aspects are rare due to the difficulty of monitoring populations both before and after a demographic crash. Ebola outbreaks in central Africa have killed up to 95% of the individuals in affected western lowland gorilla (Gorilla gorilla gorilla) populations. Assessing whether and how fast affected populations recover is essential for the conservation of this critically endangered taxon. The gorilla population visiting Lokoué forest clearing, Odzala-Kokoua National Park, Republic of the Congo, has been monitored before, two years after and six years after Ebola affected it in 2004. This allowed us to describe Ebola's short-term and long-term impacts on the structure of the population. The size of the population, which included around 380 gorillas before the Ebola outbreak, dropped to less than 40 individuals after the outbreak. It then remained stable for six years after the outbreak. However, the demographic structure of this small population has significantly changed. Although several solitary males have disappeared, the immigration of adult females, the formation of new breeding groups, and several birth events suggest that the population is showing potential to recover. During the outbreak, surviving adult and subadult females joined old solitary silverbacks. Those females were subsequently observed joining young silverbacks, forming new breeding groups where they later gave birth. Interestingly, some females were observed joining silverbacks that were unlikely to have sired their infant, but no infanticide was observed. The consequences of the Ebola outbreak on the population structure were different two years and six years after the outbreak. Therefore, our results could be used as demographic indicators to detect and date outbreaks that have happened in other, non-monitored gorilla populations.     

Rapid Development of Adaptive,Climate-Driven Clinal Variation in Seed Mass in the Invasive Annual Forb Echium plantagineum L.

We examined adaptive clinal variation in seed mass among populations of an invasive annual species, Echium plantagineum, in response to climatic selection. We collected seeds from 34 field populations from a 1,000 km long temperature and rainfall gradient across the species'' introduced range in south-eastern Australia. Seeds were germinated, grown to reproductive age under common glasshouse conditions, and progeny seeds were harvested and weighed. Analyses showed that seed mass was significantly related to climatic factors, with populations sourced from hotter, more arid sites producing heavier seeds than populations from cooler and wetter sites. Seed mass was not related to edaphic factors. We also found that seed mass was significantly related to both longitude and latitude with each degree of longitude west and latitude north increasing seed mass by around 2.5% and 4% on average. There was little evidence that within-population or between-population variation in seed mass varied in a systematic manner across the study region. Our findings provide compelling evidence for development of a strong cline in seed mass across the geographic range of a widespread and highly successful invasive annual forb. Since large seed mass is known to provide reproductive assurance for plants in arid environments, our results support the hypothesis that the fitness and range potential of invasive species can increase as a result of genetic divergence of populations along broad climatic gradients. In E. plantagineum population-level differentiation has occurred in 150 years or less, indicating that the adaptation process can be rapid.     

Climate change and the outbreak ranges of two North American bark beetles

Abstract

• 1 One expected effect of global climate change on insect populations is a shift in geographical distributions toward higher latitudes and higher elevations. Southern pine beetle Dendroctonus frontalis and mountain pine beetle Dendroctonus ponderosae undergo regional outbreaks that result in large‐scale disturbances to pine forests in the south‐eastern and western United States, respectively.
• 2 Our objective was to investigate potential range shifts under climate change of outbreak areas for both bark beetle species and the areas of occurrence of the forest types susceptible to them.
• 3 To project range changes, we used discriminant function models that incorporated climatic variables. Models to project bark beetle ranges employed changed forest distributions as well as changes in climatic variables.
• 4 Projected outbreak areas for southern pine beetle increased with higher temperatures and generally shifted northward, as did the distributions of the southern pine forests.
• 5 Projected outbreak areas for mountain pine beetle decreased with increasing temperature and shifted toward higher elevation. That trend was mirrored in the projected distributions of pine forests in the region of the western U.S. encompassed by the study.
• 6 Projected outbreak areas for the two bark beetle species and the area of occurrence of western pine forests increased with more precipitation and decreased with less precipitation, whereas the area of occurrence of southern pine forests decreased slightly with increasing precipitation.
• 7 Predicted shifts of outbreak ranges for both bark beetle species followed general expectations for the effects of global climate change and reflected the underlying long‐term distributional shifts of their host forests.

     

There's no place like home: crown-of-thorns outbreaks in the central pacific are regionally derived and independent events

One of the most significant biological disturbances on a tropical coral reef is a population outbreak of the fecund, corallivorous crown-of-thorns sea star, Acanthaster planci. Although the factors that trigger an initial outbreak may vary, successive outbreaks within and across regions are assumed to spread via the planktonic larvae released from a primary outbreak. This secondary outbreak hypothesis is predominantly based on the high dispersal potential of A. planci and the assertion that outbreak populations (a rogue subset of the larger population) are genetically more similar to each other than they are to low-density non-outbreak populations. Here we use molecular techniques to evaluate the spatial scale at which A. planci outbreaks can propagate via larval dispersal in the central Pacific Ocean by inferring the location and severity of gene flow restrictions from the analysis of mtDNA control region sequence (656 specimens, 17 non-outbreak and six outbreak locations, six archipelagos, and three regions). Substantial regional, archipelagic, and subarchipelagic-scale genetic structuring of A. planci populations indicate that larvae rarely realize their dispersal potential and outbreaks in the central Pacific do not spread across the expanses of open ocean. On a finer scale, genetic partitioning was detected within two of three islands with multiple sampling sites. The finest spatial structure was detected at Pearl & Hermes Atoll, between the lagoon and forereef habitats (<10 km). Despite using a genetic marker capable of revealing subtle partitioning, we found no evidence that outbreaks were a rogue genetic subset of a greater population. Overall, outbreaks that occur at similar times across population partitions are genetically independent and likely due to nutrient inputs and similar climatic and ecological conditions that conspire to fuel plankton blooms.     

Spatially patterned guild structure in larval parasitoids of cyclically outbreaking winter moth populations

1. Wide temporal fluctuations in host abundance are a potential source of instability and stochasticity in the spatiotemporal population dynamics of associated parasitoid species. Within parasitoid guilds (i.e. parasitoids with similar modes of host utilisation), a conceivable outcome is guild organisation according to a lottery model, in which guild members attain local dominance by colonising previously emptied habitats during increasing host density, before other guild members. In the spatial dimension, an expected manifestation of such dynamics is variable guild structure even across homogeneous habitats. 2. We examined the extent of large‐scale spatial patterning of guild characteristics in larval parasitoid wasps associated with cyclically outbreaking populations of the geometrid moth Operophtera brumata in northern Fennoscandia. The study was performed at the onset of the crash‐phase of the geometrid's outbreak cycle, along a 70‐km transect in costal northern Norway, characterised by largely homogeneous environmental conditions, except for a small climatic gradient. 3. There was a distinct large‐scale spatial turnover in dominance among the major parasitoid groups (i.e. guild structure) in O. brumata along the transect, whereas the total prevalence rate of the guild and its diversity showed no consistent variation. Guild structure was unrelated to host density. 4. Although group‐specific responses to a slight spatial climatic gradient cannot be rejected as a causal mechanism, we conclude that our results are consistent with the expectation from large‐scale stochastic extinction‐recolonisation dynamics among functionally equivalent parasitoids relying on a host with strongly cyclic population fluctuations.     

Genetic and morphologic diversity of European fan palm (Chamaerops humilis L.) populations from different environments from Sicily

Chamaerops humilis is decreasing in abundance in Mediterranean Europe, which has induced the European community to call for its protection in Special Areas of Conservation. However, information about its genetic and morphological variability, which is crucial to the development of any conservation strategies, is insufficient. The present study aimed to investigate the genetic and morphological variability of C. humilis in Sicily, which was selected as a model because of the high number of dense populations. The relationships between morphological traits and climatic variables were studied to highlight patterns of adaptation to the environment, along with the genetic similarity among the populations. Ten natural populations were sampled, analyzed using 28 specifically designed SSR primers, and evaluated based on 29 morphological traits. The populations were clustered similarly based on genetic and morphological traits. Heterozygosity was high and inbreeding coefficients were low. These results, along with higher intra‐ than inter‐population differentiation, suggest that C. humilis populations in Sicily differentiated from a common ancestor and that inter‐population variation arose from secondary evolution processes induced by ecological adaptation. The correlations between climatic variables and morphological traits suggest that the morphological adaptation to arid environments depends more on summer temperatures than on evapotranspiration or rainfall and that autumn and winter temperatures are determinants of the species establishment at new sites. Considering the response of C. humilis to seasonal temperatures, the present results indicate this species as a candidate for tracking climatic changes in Europe. Further studies are needed to highlight the adaptation of C. humilis to cold environments. Palaeo‐climatological and ‐ecological studies could help clarify its strategies for the colonization of new sites. © 2014 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2014, 176 , 66–81.