A metric of influential spreading during contagion dynamics through the air transportation network

The spread of infectious diseases at the global scale is mediated by long-range human travel. Our ability to predict the impact of an outbreak on human health requires understanding the spatiotemporal signature of early-time spreading from a specific location. Here, we show that network topology, geography, traffic structure and individual mobility patterns are all essential for accurate predictions of disease spreading. Specifically, we study contagion dynamics through the air transportation network by means of a stochastic agent-tracking model that accounts for the spatial distribution of airports, detailed air traffic and the correlated nature of mobility patterns and waiting-time distributions of individual agents. From the simulation results and the empirical air-travel data, we formulate a metric of influential spreading--the geographic spreading centrality--which accounts for spatial organization and the hierarchical structure of the network traffic, and provides an accurate measure of the early-time spreading power of individual nodes.     

Evaluating Spatial Interaction Models for Regional Mobility in Sub-Saharan Africa

Simple spatial interaction models of human mobility based on physical laws have been used extensively in the social, biological, and physical sciences, and in the study of the human dynamics underlying the spread of disease. Recent analyses of commuting patterns and travel behavior in high-income countries have led to the suggestion that these models are highly generalizable, and as a result, gravity and radiation models have become standard tools for describing population mobility dynamics for infectious disease epidemiology. Communities in Sub-Saharan Africa may not conform to these models, however; physical accessibility, availability of transport, and cost of travel between locations may be variable and severely constrained compared to high-income settings, informal labor movements rather than regular commuting patterns are often the norm, and the rise of mega-cities across the continent has important implications for travel between rural and urban areas. Here, we first review how infectious disease frameworks incorporate human mobility on different spatial scales and use anonymous mobile phone data from nearly 15 million individuals to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of the Kenyan population. We find that gravity and radiation models fail in systematic ways to capture human mobility measured by mobile phones; both severely overestimate the spatial spread of travel and perform poorly in rural areas, but each exhibits different characteristic patterns of failure with respect to routes and volumes of travel. Thus, infectious disease frameworks that rely on spatial interaction models are likely to misrepresent population dynamics important for the spread of disease in many African populations.     

The mechanisms underlying the spatial spreading of signaling activity

During the induction of plasticity of dendritic spines, many intracellular signaling pathways are spatially and temporally regulated to co-ordinate downstream cellular processes in different dendritic micron-domains. Recent advent of imaging technology based on fluorescence resonance energy transfer (FRET) has allowed the direct monitoring of the spatiotemporal regulation of signaling activity in spines and dendrites during synaptic plasticity. In particular, the activity of three small GTPase proteins HRas, Cdc42, and RhoA, which share similar structure and mobility on the plasma membrane, displayed different spatial spreading patterns: Cdc42 is compartmentalized in the stimulated spines while RhoA and HRas spread into dendrites over 5-10 μm. These measurements thus provide the basis for understanding the mechanisms underlying the spatiotemporal regulation of signaling activity. Further, using spatiotemporally controlled spine stimulations, some of the roles of signal spreading have been revealed.     

Mobility of moose—comparing the effects of wolf predation risk,reproductive status,and seasonality

In a predator–prey system, prey species may adapt to the presence of predators with behavioral changes such as increased vigilance, shifting habitats, or changes in their mobility. In North America, moose (Alces alces) have shown behavioral adaptations to presence of predators, but such antipredator behavioral responses have not yet been found in Scandinavian moose in response to the recolonization of wolves (Canis lupus). We studied travel speed and direction of movement of GPS‐collared female moose (n = 26) in relation to spatiotemporal differences in wolf predation risk, reproductive status, and time of year. Travel speed was highest during the calving (May–July) and postcalving (August–October) seasons and was lower for females with calves than females without calves. Similarly, time of year and reproductive status affected the direction of movement, as more concentrated movement was observed for females with calves at heel, during the calving season. We did not find support for that wolf predation risk was an important factor affecting moose travel speed or direction of movement. Likely causal factors for the weak effect of wolf predation risk on mobility of moose include high moose‐to‐wolf ratio and intensive hunter harvest of the moose population during the past century.     

Quantifying the links between land use and population growth rate in a declining farmland bird

Land use is likely to be a key driver of population dynamics of species inhabiting anthropogenic landscapes, such as farmlands. Understanding the relationships between land use and variation in population growth rates is therefore critical for the management of many farmland species. Using 24 years of data of a declining farmland bird in an integrated population model, we examined how spatiotemporal variation in land use (defined as habitats with “Short” and “Tall” ground vegetation during the breeding season) and habitat‐specific demographic parameters relates to variation in population growth taking into account individual movements between habitats. We also evaluated contributions to population growth using transient life table response experiments which gives information on contribution of past variation of parameters and real‐time elasticities which suggests future scenarios to change growth rates. LTRE analyses revealed a clear contribution of Short habitats to the annual variation in population growth rate that was mostly due to fledgling recruitment, whereas there was no evidence for a contribution of Tall habitats. Only 18% of the variation in population growth was explained by the modeled local demography, the remaining variation being explained by apparent immigration (i.e., the residual variation). We discuss potential biological and methodological reasons for high contributions of apparent immigration in open populations. In line with LTRE analysis, real‐time elasticity analysis revealed that demographic parameters linked to Short habitats had a stronger potential to influence population growth rate than those of Tall habitats. Most particularly, an increase of the proportion of Short sites occupied by Old breeders could have a distinct positive impact on population growth. High‐quality Short habitats such as grazed pastures have been declining in southern Sweden. Converting low‐quality to high‐quality habitats could therefore change the present negative population trend of this, and other species with similar habitat requirements.     

Understanding Spatiotemporal Patterns of Biking Behavior by Analyzing Massive Bike Sharing Data in Chicago

The growing number of bike sharing systems (BSS) in many cities largely facilitates biking for transportation and recreation. Most recent bike sharing systems produce time and location specific data, which enables the study of travel behavior and mobility of each individual. However, despite a rapid growth of interest, studies on massive bike sharing data and the underneath travel pattern are still limited. Few studies have explored and visualized spatiotemporal patterns of bike sharing behavior using flow clustering, nor examined the station functional profiles based on over-demand patterns. This study investigated the spatiotemporal biking pattern in Chicago by analyzing massive BSS data from July to December in 2013 and 2014. The BSS in Chicago gained more popularity. About 15.9% more people subscribed to this service. Specifically, we constructed bike flow similarity graph and used fastgreedy algorithm to detect spatial communities of biking flows. By using the proposed methods, we discovered unique travel patterns on weekdays and weekends as well as different travel trends for customers and subscribers from the noisy massive amount data. In addition, we also examined the temporal demands for bikes and docks using hierarchical clustering method. Results demonstrated the modeled over-demand patterns in Chicago. This study contributes to offer better knowledge of biking flow patterns, which was difficult to obtain using traditional methods. Given the trend of increasing popularity of the BSS and data openness in different cities, methods used in this study can extend to examine the biking patterns and BSS functionality in different cities.     

Patterns,Entropy, and Predictability of Human Mobility and Life

Cellular phones are now offering an ubiquitous means for scientists to observe life: how people act, move and respond to external influences. They can be utilized as measurement devices of individual persons and for groups of people of the social context and the related interactions. The picture of human life that emerges shows complexity, which is manifested in such data in properties of the spatiotemporal tracks of individuals. We extract from smartphone-based data for a set of persons important locations such as “home”, “work” and so forth over fixed length time-slots covering the days in the data-set (see also [1], [2]). This set of typical places is heavy-tailed, a power-law distribution with an exponent close to −1.7. To analyze the regularities and stochastic features present, the days are classified for each person into regular, personal patterns. To this are superimposed fluctuations for each day. This randomness is measured by “life” entropy, computed both before and after finding the clustering so as to subtract the contribution of a number of patterns. The main issue that we then address is how predictable individuals are in their mobility. The patterns and entropy are reflected in the predictability of the mobility of the life both individually and on average. We explore the simple approaches to guess the location from the typical behavior, and of exploiting the transition probabilities with time from location or activity A to B. The patterns allow an enhanced predictability, at least up to a few hours into the future from the current location. Such fixed habits are most clearly visible in the working-day length.     

Lack of Evidence for Energetic Costs of Mate-Guarding in Wild Male Assamese Macaques (Macaca assamensis)

Mate-guarding is a widespread and efficient male strategy for increasing paternity success. The inability to guard entire female receptive phases or complete lack of mate-guarding has been explained by energetic constraints posed on males. The energetic costs per unit time a male can afford to suffer are thought to be lowest in year-round breeding species in marginal habitats and highest in seasonally breeding species in rich habitats. Here we test the prediction that mate-guarding is energetically costly in seasonal breeders in marginal habitats. We observed all males in one group of wild Assamese macaques (Macaca assamensis) for two 4-mo mating seasons and recorded activity and travel paths via focal animal sampling, physical condition via visual inspection, and collected feces for analysis of glucocorticoid levels. Generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) analyses did not reveal an effect of mate-guarding on time spent feeding or moving or on distance traveled, travel speed, directedness of travel, or glucocorticoid levels. This lack of mate-guarding costs was consistent with the lack of a relationship between individual time spent mate-guarding and change in physical condition over the mating season. Within the limitations of our study the results do not support the idea that seasonally breeding males in marginal habitats face energetic costs of mate-guarding. With others we suggest instead that though these costs may be found in species where strength, size, and mass predict rank, mating, and reproductive success, males may not engage in costly mate-guarding in species such as Assamese macaques where also smaller, weaker males may attain high social status via political coalitions or other routes alternative to direct contest over guarded females.     

Ramet demography of a nurse bromeliad in Brazilian restingas

Restingas are sandy coastal plains that stand between the sea and the Brazilian Atlantic forest mountains. The predominant restinga vegetation type in northern Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, is characterized by the formation of islands that begins with colonization by some pioneer herbs and/or woody plants. Pioneer plants are stress-resistant and nurse many other less-resistant plant species. Determining the spatiotemporal variation in the dynamics of nurse plants is essential to understand the ecological functioning of restingas as a whole. The goal of this study was to analyze the spatiotemporal variation in population dynamics of the nurse bromeliad Aechmea nudicaulis. We monitored A. nudicaulis ramets in different habitats, microhabitats, and years. We analyzed the spatiotemporal variation in demographic traits and in population growth rate. Results showed young ramet traits were more variable at the microhabitat level, and when variable, vegetative ramet traits varied at all spatiotemporal scales. Overall, λ values indicated that A. nudicaulis basically remained spatiotemporally stable as most of the λ values did not significantly differ from unity. Hence, the stability of A. nudicaulis in different microhabitats and habitats in the restinga may create several settlement opportunities for many other less-resistant species.     

Bonobos (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Pan paniscus</Emphasis>) Perform Branch Drag Displays before Long-Distance Travel

Many primates use objects in courtship and dominance displays, but little is known about such displays in other contexts. Bonobos (Pan paniscus) frequently perform “branch drag” displays in which an individual runs along the ground while holding a branch in one hand. We aim to understand how bonobos use branch drags in the context of group travel. Using observational data collected from a community of free-ranging bonobos at the Lui Kotale field site in the Democratic Republic of Congo we compare group travel that occurs after branch drags to travel in the absence of branch drags. We found that bonobos are much more likely to perform branch drags before travel to a distant feeding tree than before shorter bouts of travel. At some locations, bonobos also perform branch drags before a change in travel direction. Our results suggest that in specific contexts branch drags may provide information about upcoming group travel, and likely function to coordinate group movement.     

Nutritional Consequences of Experimentally Introduced Tourism in Brown Bears

Abstract: Although numerous studies have documented behavioral effects of nature-based tourism on wildlife populations, few studies have determined whether behavioral changes translate to effects on individual condition and population health. This issue is currently a concern for wildlife managers in Alaska, USA, and Canada where bear viewing is a rapidly growing industry expanding into previously undisturbed bear habitats. Rather than record observations at long established tourism sites, we experimentally introduced bear viewing into 2 relatively undisturbed brown bear (Ursus arctos) populations in south-central Alaska. We examined the nutritional consequences of behavioral changes induced by the presence and activity of bear viewers for bears feeding on early summer vegetation and late-summer salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch and O. nerka). We used Global Positioning System collars, monitored food resource availability, and quantified individual resource use and condition for a year prior to and during the introduction of bear viewing. Though bear viewing altered spatiotemporal resource use in all treatments, total resource use declined only when we exposed bears to 24-hour daily human activity. Energy expenditure, indexed as daily travel distances, was significantly higher when bears responded by altering spatial rather than temporal resource use. However, body weight and composition were unaffected by all treatments as bears shifted their foraging to other locations or times. Managers can minimize nutritional impacts of bear-viewing programs by avoiding spatial displacement and providing predictable time periods when bears can access food resources free of human activity. Bears in this study exhibited a high degree of behavioral plasticity, which may be an important factor in identifying flagship species for sustainable ecotourism programs.     

Human settlement and baobab distribution in south-western Mali

Aim Human settlement establishment and reproduction of the baobab tree (Adansonia digitata) appear spatially and temporally dependent because baobabs are abundant in many settlement sites in Africa. This paper tests the spatiotemporal relationship between baobab and settlement distribution. Location South‐western Mali. Methods In an area of 183 km², 1240 baobabs were located and mapped, their diameters measured, and habitat characteristics recorded for each individual. All occupied (n = 9) and abandoned (n = 84) settlements were located and mapped, and occupation dates were determined through interviews. Chi‐squared analysis indicated baobab habitat preferences, and bivariate point‐pattern analysis tested baobab–settlement spatiotemporal independence. Results Baobabs and human settlements are positively spatially associated at most distances and for all baobab size‐class–settlement age‐class pairs. However, positive spatial association is significant only at distances < 500 m, and young settlements and large baobabs are not significantly associated. Positive association between small and large baobabs is marginally significant at <300 m, but observed significance is less than that for baobab–settlement positive association. Baobab abundance is not evenly distributed across the range of habitats it occupies; recruitment is strongest in settlements and fields, and on cliffs, while mortality is highest on cliffs. Ethnographic observations suggest that human settlement practices and fruit use are the main human factors contributing to baobab–settlement positive spatial association. Main conclusions There are three main conclusions: (1) Human settlement and baobab recruitment are spatially dependant because settlement leads directly and indirectly to the development of baobab groves at settlement sites. (2) The lower than expected abundance of mature individuals in natural habitats, and the habitat preferences of the observed population, suggest that baobabs were introduced to south‐western Mali, probably centuries ago. (3) Human mobility over decadal time‐scales is necessary to maintain baobab population structure in landscapes dominated by shifting land use, where baobabs are not purposefully planted. Baobab population processes in such landscapes occur at the scale of human settlement.     

Low individual-level dietary plasticity in an island-invasive generalist forager

The ability of invasive mammals to adjust their diet in response to new or variable resources is often proposed to explain their invasion success on islands with differing environmental conditions, especially islands with strong spatiotemporal changes in the nature and abundance of their resources. In this study, we investigated how habitat heterogeneity and seasonal fluctuation in resource quality affect dietary breadth and plasticity in an island-invasive rodent, the black rat Rattus rattus, on a small Mediterranean island. We tested for dietary plasticity of rats at both the individual and population levels by using traditional dietary and stable isotope analyses at successively increasing time scales, coupled with a long-term study of individual rats in three habitats of close proximity. Dietary and movement analyses both indicated that R. rattus is able to exploit a wide range of resources and habitats. However, dietary plasticity and habitat breadth were far narrower at the individual level. Results revealed that rats exclusively used resources found in their local habitat, and very few individuals moved among adjacent habitats in pursuit of higher-quality resources, despite those resources being abundant in their immediate environment. This counterintuitive finding suggests that intraspecific interactions must restrict rat mobility. Our results suggest that even on small islands, accessibility of patchy and high-quality resources to individuals from the entire population is not systematic. This result has important implications when quantifying invasive rodent impacts on patchily distributed species, especially when studies use indirect methods such as dietary analyses as a substitute for direct observations of predatory behavior.     

Matrix Production and Sporulation in Bacillus subtilis Biofilms Localize to Propagating Wave Fronts

Bacterial biofilms are surface-attached microbial communities encased in self-produced extracellular polymeric substances. Here we demonstrate that during the development of Bacillus subtilis biofilms, matrix production is localized to an annular front propagating at the periphery and sporulation to a second front at a fixed distance at the interior. We show that within these fronts, cells switch off matrix production and transition to sporulation after a set time delay of ～100 min. Correlation analyses of fluctuations in fluorescence reporter activity reveal that the fronts emerge from a pair of gene-expression waves of matrix production and sporulation. The localized expression waves travel across cells that are immobilized in the biofilm matrix in contrast to active cell migration or horizontal colony spreading. Our results suggest that front propagation arises via a local developmental program occurring at the level of individual bacterial cells, likely driven by nutrient depletion and metabolic by-product accumulation. A single-length scale and timescale couples the spatiotemporal propagation of both fronts throughout development. As a result, gene expression patterns within the advancing fronts collapse to self-similar expression profiles. Our findings highlight the key role of the localized cellular developmental program associated with the propagating front in describing biofilm growth.     

Mapping the navigational knowledge of individually foraging ants,Myrmecia croslandi

Ants are efficient navigators, guided by path integration and visual landmarks. Path integration is the primary strategy in landmark-poor habitats, but landmarks are readily used when available. The landmark panorama provides reliable information about heading direction, routes and specific location. Visual memories for guidance are often acquired along routes or near to significant places. Over what area can such locally acquired memories provide information for reaching a place? This question is unusually approachable in the solitary foraging Australian jack jumper ant, since individual foragers typically travel to one or two nest-specific foraging trees. We find that within 10 m from the nest, ants both with and without home vector information available from path integration return directly to the nest from all compass directions, after briefly scanning the panorama. By reconstructing panoramic views within the successful homing range, we show that in the open woodland habitat of these ants, snapshot memories acquired close to the nest provide sufficient navigational information to determine nest-directed heading direction over a surprisingly large area, including areas that animals may have not visited previously.     

Spatiotemporal variation of Diptera changes how we evaluate High Nature Value (HNV) wet grasslands

Proposed strategies to protect biodiversity within agricultural systems are often based on botanical criteria with plant species richness generally considered the prime indicator of conservation potential. While wet grasslands dominated by rushes (Juncus spp.) are commonly considered to be of lesser ecological value than those which are more botanically diverse (e.g. Carex dominated wet grasslands), their value for invertebrates such as Diptera has not yet been fully explored. Data from two Diptera families (Sciomyzidae and Syrphidae) were examined at spatial, temporal and spatiotemporal scales to determine the contribution of two different (Juncus and Carex dominated) wet grassland habitats towards the maintenance of Diptera diversity. The two habitats were significantly different in terms of community structure for both families and temporal variation was a significant component of dipteran diversity. Spatiotemporal analysis showed that species turnover between habitats at different times made the most significant contribution to overall Diptera diversity. Temporal variation of both families suggests that the relative importance of each habitat type to overall diversity fluctuates depending on sampling period, with both habitats supporting diversity at different times. Our results indicate that lowland wet grasslands characterised by Juncus cover need to be recognised as ecologically important for the maintenance of dipteran diversity. We discuss the possible implications for the diversity of Diptera in wet grasslands if these commonly perceived marginal areas (both agriculturally and ecologically) are ignored in conservation strategies. The necessity of recognising spatiotemporal variation when evaluating habitats using invertebrates as indicators is also discussed.     

Do urban areas act as foci for the spread of alien plant species? An assessment of temporal trends in the UK

Aim Given that urban landscapes often act as a point of entry for many non‐native species and urban development continues to increase as the human population rapidly expands, an understanding of the interaction between urbanization and non‐native plant species is important both in the control of potentially invasive species and in the conservation of native biodiversity. We investigated the spatial and temporal relationship between urban land cover and the distribution of non‐native species in Britain using two floristic data sets collected at two different time periods: 1987–88 and 2003–04. Location UK. Methods Using floristic data collected by the Botanical Society of the British Isles in 1987–88 (Monitoring Scheme) and 2003–04 (Local Change) in conjunction with habitat data obtained from the Land Cover Map of the UK, we conducted multiple regression analyses both within and between years on both groups of species (natives, neophytes and archaeophytes) and individual species. Results Neophytes (alien species introduced after 1500) were very strongly associated with urban land cover in both time periods and do not appear to be spreading out of urban habitats into the wider countryside. Archaeophytes (alien species introduced before 1500), however, showed a strong association with urban habitats in the earlier 1988 data set but no longer showed this association in the 2004 data set. Analysis at the individual species level showed that a large percentage of alien plant species, particularly archaeophytes, were not strongly associated with urban land cover or were negatively associated with such habitats. Main conclusions Our results suggest that there has been a reduction in the urban association of archaeophytes that is likely to have resulted from the recovery of archaeophytes associated with non‐urban (especially arable) habitats, following their decline in mid‐20th century, rather than from the movement of aliens into the wider countryside from urban habitats.     

Spreading of silent chromatin: inaction at a distance

One of the oldest unsolved problems in genetics is the observation that gene silencing can 'spread' along a chromosome. Although spreading has been widely perceived as a process of long-range assembly of heterochromatin proteins, such 'oozing' might not apply in most cases. Rather, long-range silencing seems to be a dynamic process, involving local diffusion of histone-modifying enzymes from source binding sites to low-affinity sites nearby. Discontinuous silencing might reflect looping interactions, whereas the spreading of continuous silencing might be driven by the processive movement of RNA or DNA polymerases. We review the evidence for the spreading of silencing in many contexts and organisms and conclude that multiple mechanisms have evolved that silence genes at a distance.     

Benefits of nature: what we are learning about why people respond to nature

People have positive aesthetic, emotional, and physiological responses to nature. Why is this so? The "savanna hypothesis," proposed by Gordon Orians, predicts that some human responses are based on innate knowledge of productive human habitats. To test this, researchers have examined particular aspects of nature that should be associated with productive human habitats to see if they trigger positive responses in people. Tree form has emerged as an important factor in these studies. People prefer looking at trees with spreading forms much more than looking at trees with other forms. Trees with spreading forms existed on the African savanna and were associated with habitats that were good for early human habitation. We have shown that subjects also feel happier when looking at these trees than when looking at other trees or non-tree objects. Color is another variable that might be associated with people's responses to nature. Bright green colors could be an important cue for healthy plants with good nutrient qualities. We measured subjects' physiological responses to tree canopies of various colors and found that all colors were calming, but bright green trees were more calming than other tree colors, including less bright greens and oranges. Adult responses to plants are also influenced by their childhood interactions with nature. We have shown that the more interaction people have with nature as children, the more positive are their attitudes towards nature as adults. These positive responses have been documented in people from a wide range of backgrounds.