Pattern and scale of geographic variation in environmental sex determination in the Atlantic silverside,Menidia menidia

The Atlantic silverside, Menidia menidia (Pisces: Atherinidae), exhibits an exceptionally high level of clinal variation in sex determination across its geographic range. Previous work suggested linear changes in the level of temperature‐dependent sex determination (TSD) with increasing latitude. Based on comparisons at 31 sites encompassing the entire species’ range, we find that the change in level of TSD with latitude is instead highly nonlinear. The level of TSD is uniformly high in the south (Florida to New Jersey), then declines rapidly into the northern Gulf of Maine where genotypic sex determination (GSD) predominates and then rebounds to moderate levels of TSD in the northern‐most populations of the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Major latitudinal breakpoints occur in central New Jersey (40^oN) and the northern Gulf of Maine (44^oN). No populations display pure TSD or GSD. Length of the growing season is the likely agent of selection driving variation in TSD with a threshold at 210 days. Because gene flow among populations is high, such distinct patterns of geographic variation in TSD/GSD are likely maintained by contemporary selection thereby demonstrating the adaptive fine tuning of sex determining mechanisms.     

Evaluating monitoring methods to guide adaptive management of a threatened amphibian (Litoria aurea)

Prompt detection of declines in abundance or distribution of populations is critical when managing threatened species that have high population turnover. Population monitoring programs provide the tools necessary to identify and detect decreases in abundance that will threaten the persistence of key populations and should occur in an adaptive management framework which designs monitoring to maximize detection and minimize effort. We monitored a population of Litoria aurea at Sydney Olympic Park over 5 years using mark–recapture, capture encounter, noncapture encounter, auditory, tadpole trapping, and dip‐net surveys. The methods differed in the cost, time, and ability to detect changes in the population. Only capture encounter surveys were able to simultaneously detect a decline in the occupancy, relative abundance, and recruitment of frogs during the surveys. The relative abundance of L. aurea during encounter surveys correlated with the population size obtained from mark–recapture surveys, and the methods were therefore useful for detecting a change in the population. Tadpole trapping and auditory surveys did not predict overall abundance and were therefore not useful in detecting declines. Monitoring regimes should determine optimal survey times to identify periods where populations have the highest detectability. Once this has been achieved, capture encounter surveys provide a cost‐effective method of effectively monitoring trends in occupancy, changes in relative abundance, and detecting recruitment in populations.     

Abundance, Annual Survival, and Recruitment of Unexploited and Exploited Lake Charr, Salvelinus Namaycush, Populations at the Experimental Lakes Area, Northwestern Ontario

We studied abundance, annual survival, and recruitment of nine lake charr, Salvelinus namaycush, populations at the Experimental Lakes Area, Ontario, for periods of 9–24 years. We used the Jolly–Seber mark-recapture method to evaluate abundance and annual survival in all populations, and total catches of individual year classes to evaluate recruitment. Seven populations were unexploited and unaffected by whole-lake experiments. One population was exploited prior to mark-recapture study and another was affected by experimental acidification. Abundance ranged from 8 to 24 fish ha^–1 in the unaffected populations. Annual survival ranged from 78% to 93%yr^–1 in all populations except the exploited population. This population may have been additionally affected by northern pike, Esox lucius, predation. Yearly recruitment was relatively constant in all populations and related to lake charr abundance. Lake charr abundance did not recover in populations affected by exploitation or acidification. Unexploited lake charr populations were characterized by relatively constant abundance, high annual survival, and relatively constant annual recruitment.     

Recruitment variability in North Atlantic cod and match-mismatch dynamics

Background

Fisheries exploitation, habitat destruction, and climate are important drivers of variability in recruitment success. Understanding variability in recruitment can reveal mechanisms behind widespread decline in the abundance of key species in marine and terrestrial ecosystems. For fish populations, the match-mismatch theory hypothesizes that successful recruitment is a function of the timing and duration of larval fish abundance and prey availability. However, the underlying mechanisms of match-mismatch dynamics and the factors driving spatial differences between high and low recruitment remain poorly understood.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We used empirical observations of larval fish abundance, a mechanistic individual-based model, and a reanalysis of ocean temperature data from 1960 to 2002 to estimate the survival of larval cod (Gadus morhua). From the model, we quantified how survival rates changed during the warmest and coldest years at four important cod spawning sites in the North Atlantic. The modeled difference in survival probability was not large for any given month between cold or warm years. However, the cumulative effect of higher growth rates and survival through the entire spawning season in warm years was substantial with 308%, 385%, 154%, and 175% increases in survival for Georges Bank, Iceland, North Sea, and Lofoten cod stocks, respectively. We also found that the importance of match-mismatch dynamics generally increased with latitude.

Conclusions/Significance

Our analyses indicate that a key factor for enhancing survival is the duration of the overlap between larval and prey abundance and not the actual timing of the peak abundance. During warm years, the duration of the overlap between larval fish and their prey is prolonged due to an early onset of the spring bloom. This prolonged season enhances cumulative growth and survival, leading to a greater number of large individuals with enhanced potential for survival to recruitment.     

Both life‐history plasticity and local adaptation will shape range‐wide responses to climate warming in the tundra plant Silene acaulis

Many predictions of how climate change will impact biodiversity have focused on range shifts using species‐wide climate tolerances, an approach that ignores the demographic mechanisms that enable species to attain broad geographic distributions. But these mechanisms matter, as responses to climate change could fundamentally differ depending on the contributions of life‐history plasticity vs. local adaptation to species‐wide climate tolerances. In particular, if local adaptation to climate is strong, populations across a species’ range—not only those at the trailing range edge—could decline sharply with global climate change. Indeed, faster rates of climate change in many high latitude regions could combine with local adaptation to generate sharper declines well away from trailing edges. Combining 15 years of demographic data from field populations across North America with growth chamber warming experiments, we show that growth and survival in a widespread tundra plant show compensatory responses to warming throughout the species’ latitudinal range, buffering overall performance across a range of temperatures. However, populations also differ in their temperature responses, consistent with adaptation to local climate, especially growing season temperature. In particular, warming begins to negatively impact plant growth at cooler temperatures for plants from colder, northern populations than for those from warmer, southern populations, both in the field and in growth chambers. Furthermore, the individuals and maternal families with the fastest growth also have the lowest water use efficiency at all temperatures, suggesting that a trade‐off between growth and water use efficiency could further constrain responses to forecasted warming and drying. Taken together, these results suggest that populations throughout species’ ranges could be at risk of decline with continued climate change, and that the focus on trailing edge populations risks overlooking the largest potential impacts of climate change on species’ abundance and distribution.     

Range limits and geographic patterns of abundance of the rocky intertidal owl limpet,Lottia gigantea

Aim We evaluate the stability of the range limits of the rocky intertidal limpet, Lottia gigantea, over the last c. 140 years, test the validity of the abundant centre hypothesis, and test indirectly the roles played by recruitment limitation and habitat availability in controlling the range limits. Because this species is size‐selectively harvested, our results also allow us to assess conservation implications. Location The Pacific coast of North America, from northern California to southern Baja California (41.74° N–23.37° N), encompassing the entire range of L. gigantea. Methods The historical and modern distributions of L. gigantea were established using museum data and field observations. Overall and juvenile abundances of local populations were estimated at 25 field sites. The spatial distribution of abundance was evaluated statistically against the predictions of five hypothetical models. The availability of habitat was estimated by measuring the percentage of unavailable sandy beach within cumulative bins of coast across the range of L. gigantea. Results The northern limit of L. gigantea has contracted by c. 2.4° of latitude over recent decades (after 1963), while the southern limit has remained stable. The highest abundances of L. gigantea occur in the centre of its geographic range. Habitat availability is ample in the centre and northern portions of its range, but is generally lacking in the southern range. The northern range is only sparsely populated by adults, with sharp declines occurring north of Monterey Bay (36.80° N). In the southern range, abundance drops precipitously south of Punta Eugenia (27.82° N), coinciding with the region where suitable habitat becomes sparse. Main conclusions Support for the abundant centre hypothesis was found for L. gigantea. Northern populations are characterized as being recruitment‐limited, demographically unstable and prone to local extinctions, while southern populations are suggested to be habitat‐limited. The abundant centre is suggested to result partly from a combination of the indirect effects of human harvesting, generating denser populations of smaller individuals, and larval recruitment from well‐protected offshore rocky islands primarily found in the range centre.     

Myrmica rubra microhabitat selection and putative ecological impact

1. Myrmica rubra (European fire ant) has invaded northern latitude coastal areas in North America. This macroscale distribution suggests that M. rubra is moisture‐ and temperature‐limited, but the distribution of the invaded range may reflect the legacy of original introduction locations preserved by limited dispersal. 2. This study examined a two‐decade population change in M. rubra (1994–2015) and the microscale abiotic (moisture and temperature), biotic (plants), anthropogenic (pesticide) and physiological (thermal tolerance) limits on the invasion at the Tifft Nature Preserve in Buffalo, NY (U.S.A.). Changes in the abundance of native ants and other invertebrates were also examined. 3. Despite localised declines with pesticide treatments, overall M. rubra forager abundance increased 27% between 1994 and 2015. Abundance increased the most in the warmest areas (native ants were unaffected by temperature), but M. rubra colony locations were strongly linked to higher soil moisture and lower soil temperature. Myrmica rubra ants also exhibited relatively low thermal tolerances consistent with high‐latitude and high‐elevation ants. 4. Where local M. rubra populations increased the most, native ant species decreased, and where local M. rubra populations declined, native ant species increased. Some arthropod species had lower abundance with M. rubra presence, but the impacts were less striking. 5. Myrmica rubra population growth was promoted at the microhabitat scale where relatively higher temperatures prompted foraging, and relatively lower temperatures and high moisture supported nesting. These results suggest that macroscale M. rubra invaded‐range distributions in northern climates near coastal areas are replicated at the microscale where the ant prefers cooler, moister microsites.     

Food supply and poaching limit giraffe abundance in the Serengeti

The iconic giraffe, an ecologically important browser, has shown a substantial decline in numbers across Africa since the 1990s. In Serengeti National Park, Tanzania, giraffes reached densities of 1.5–2.6 individuals km⁻² in the 1970s coincident with a pulse of Acacia tree recruitment. However, despite continued increases in woody cover between the 1980s and the 2000s, giraffe recruitment and survival rates have declined and density has dropped to only 0.3–0.4 giraffes km⁻². We used a decision table to investigate how four extrinsic factors may have contributed to these declines: food supply, predation, parasites, and poaching, which have all been previously shown to limit Serengeti ungulate populations. Lower recruitment likely resulted from a reduction in diet quality, owing to the replacement of preferred trees with unpalatable species, while decreased adult survival resulted from illegal harvesting, which appears to have had a greater impact on giraffe populations bordering the western and northern Serengeti. The Serengeti giraffe population will likely persist at low-to-moderate densities until palatable tree species regain their former abundance. Leslie matrix models suggest that park managers should meanwhile redouble their efforts to reduce poaching, thereby improving adult survival.     

Population Recovery following Decline in an Endangered Stream-Breeding Frog (Mixophyes fleayi) from Subtropical Australia

Amphibians have undergone dramatic declines and extinctions worldwide. Prominent among these have been the stream-breeding frogs in the rainforests of eastern Australia. The amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has been postulated as the primary cause of these declines. We conducted a capture-mark-recapture study over a 7-year period on the endangered Fleay’s barred frog (Mixophyes fleayi) at two independent streams (30 km apart) in order to assess the stability of these populations. This species had undergone a severe decline across its narrow geographic range. Mark-recapture modelling showed that the number of individuals increased 3–10 fold along stream transects over this period. Frog detection probabilities were frequently above 50% but declined as the populations increased. Adult survival was important to overall population persistence in light of low recruitment events, suggesting that longevity may be a key factor in this recovery. One male and female were present in the capture record for >6 years. This study provides an unambiguous example of population recovery in the presence of Bd.     

Comparative population dynamics of Common Sandpipers Actitis hypoleucos: living at the edge

Capsule Common Sandpiper populations at the edge of their range do not recruit so well.

Aims To compare the survival rates, breeding success and recruitment of a population near the edge of its range (Peak District) with one more centrally placed (Borders).

Methods Populations were censused weekly; adults and chicks were ringed, and apparent survival of adults determined by resighting colour-ringed birds. Breeding success was assessed from ringing chicks and the guarding behaviour of their parents over 3–4 weeks post-hatching.

Results Survival rates of adults and their breeding success were similar in the two sites. Recruits were rarely ringed chicks returning to near their natal site; they were usually newly recruited adults. In both, natal dispersal took returning chicks away from their natal site, by 3–6 km, but far more potential recruits returned to the Borders (51% compared with 4%). The population in the Borders was more variable, but recovered better from declines.

Conclusions There is no obvious difference in survival or reproductive rates that would explain the different recent fates of the two study populations. Differential survival over winter in West Africa (the presumed wintering grounds) is unlikely to explain the recent decline of the Peak District population, because conditions there should have affected the Borders population too. The Peak District population is exposed at the edge of the species' range, and it seems to be poorer breeding success across its general range that has caused the poorer recruitment there, and hence the decline.     

Influence of climate on Bonelli's eagle's (Hieraaetus fasciatus V. 1822) breeding success through the Western Mediterranean

Aim To assess the impact of certain climatic variables on the breeding success of some populations of Bonelli's eagle (Hieraaetus fasciatus V. 1822) throughout its latitudinal distribution range, in order to account for recent and differential declines in populations. Location Western Mediterranean, from southern Morocco to southern France. Methods Seven populations were considered for the latitudinal distribution range of the species. Data from 1052 breeding attempts were taken from the literature and, for each population, breeding success was measured as the mean number of fledglings per pair per year. Breeding success, as a dependent variable, was related to five geographical and climatic variables (latitude, mean annual temperature, mean minimum temperature of the coldest month, mean maximum temperature of the hottest month and mean annual precipitation) as independent variables, through some regression models, which take into account the multicolinearity of the variables. Results All the analyses agreed that average annual temperature was an important factor associated with the breeding success of the species in each region, and accounted for up to 97% of the variance of the breeding success throughout a latitudinal gradient in the study area. Main conclusions The low breeding success of the northern populations (probably because of climatic constraints) and the tendency of juveniles to disperse southwards, diminishes recruitment in those populations. Therefore, as human pressure and habitat destruction causes high adult and pre‐adult mortality of the species throughout its entire latitudinal range, disturbances in the northern populations have more profound effects, thereby explaining observed population declines.     

Life at the edge: an experimental study of a poleward range boundary

Experimental studies of biogeographic processes are important, but rarely attempted because of the logistical challenges of research at large spatial scales. I used a series of large-scale transplant experiments to investigate the mechanisms controlling species abundance near a poleward range boundary. The intertidal limpet Collisella scabra experiences a 100-fold decline in abundance over the northernmost 300 km of its range. Temperature and food supply both strongly influenced individual survival, growth, and maturation. Regression analysis also revealed significant interactions among these conditions: the effect of one could not be predicted without knowing the level of the other. But these relationships could not explain geographic abundance patterns. Instead, individual limpets were highly successful at sites with relatively low abundance. These results suggest that, even though temperature is important to the success of individual C. scabra populations, the primary effect of warming temperatures under climate change may not be a shift in geographic distribution.     

Comparative ecology of prickly sculpin,Cottus asper,and coastrange sculpin,C. aleuticus,in the Eel River,California

Synopsis We documented species' distributions, size structure of populations, abundance in mainstem and tributary streams, habitat use, and diets of prickly sculpin, Cottus asper, and coastrange sculpin, C. aleuticus, in the Eel River drainage of California, to determine the processes allowing coexistence of these very similar fishes. We observed prickly sculpins at 43 sites and coastrange sculpins at 34. The species co-occurred at 26 sites. Young-of-year coastrange sculpins were only observed within 42 km of the ocean, but young-of-year prickly sculpins were present throughout the species range. Mean, maximum, and minimum lengths of coastrange sculpins were positively correlated with distance from the ocean but no significant relationships were found for prickly sculpins. Absolute abundance of both species was highest in mainstem habitat (prickly sculpins = 0.6 sculpins m^–2 and coastrange sculpins = 0.4 sculpins m^–2) . Tributary densities of both species tended to be less than 0.1 sculpins m^–2. The species inhabited very similar habitats and had very similar diets. Coastrange sculpin populations in upstream areas were maintained by immigration from downstream areas in contrast with prickly sculpin populations that produced young-of-year fish throughout their range. Densities were probably not high enough for interspecific interactions to be important. The factors limiting the upstream distribution of the species may include high water temperatures, stability of the stream bed, and behavior of the fish. In the past, the range of sculpins within the Eel River drainage probably fluctuated with changing physical conditions. Recent introductions of exotic species that compete with and prey upon sculpins, and ongoing human activities in the drainage could result in major reductions in the distribution and abundance of one or both species.     

Physiological tolerances account for range limits and abundance structure in an invasive slug

Despite the importance of understanding the mechanisms underlying range limits and abundance structure, few studies have sought to do so. Here we use a terrestrial slug species, Deroceras panormitanum, that has invaded a remote, largely predator-free, Southern Ocean island as a model system to do so. Across Marion Island, slug density does not conform to an abundant centre distribution. Rather, abundance structure is characterized by patches and gaps. These are associated with this desiccation-sensitive species'' preference for biotic and drainage line habitats that share few characteristics except for their high humidity below the vegetation surface. The coastal range margin has a threshold form, rapidly rising from zero to high density. Slugs do not occur where soil-exchangeable Na values are higher than 3000 mg kg⁻¹, and in laboratory experiments, survival is high below this value but negligible above it. Upper elevation range margins are a function of the inability of this species to survive temperatures below an absolute limit of −6.4°C, which is regularly exceeded at 200 m altitude, above which slug density declines to zero. However, the linear decline in density from the coastal peak is probably also a function of a decline in performance or time available for activity. This is probably associated with an altitudinal decline in mean annual soil temperature. These findings support previous predictions made regarding the form of density change when substrate or climatic factors set range limits.     

Signals of large scale climate drivers,hatchery enhancement,and marine factors in Yukon River Chinook salmon survival revealed with a Bayesian life history model

Understanding how species might respond to climate change involves disentangling the influence of co‐occurring environmental factors on population dynamics, and is especially problematic for migratory species like Pacific salmon that move between ecosystems. To date, debate surrounding the causes of recent declines in Yukon River Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) abundance has centered on whether factors in freshwater or marine environments control variation in survival, and how these populations at the northern extremity of the species range will respond to climate change. To estimate the effect of factors in marine and freshwater environments on Chinook salmon survival, we constructed a stage‐structured assessment model that incorporates the best available data, estimates incidental marine bycatch mortality in trawl fisheries, and uses Bayesian model selection methods to quantify support for alternative hypotheses. Models fitted to two index populations of Yukon River Chinook salmon indicate that processes in the nearshore and marine environments are the most important determinants of survival. Specifically, survival declines when ice leaves the Yukon River later in the spring, increases with wintertime temperature in the Bering Sea, and declines with the abundance of globally enhanced salmon species consistent with competition at sea. In addition, we found support for density‐dependent survival limitations in freshwater but not marine portions of the life cycle, increasing average survival with ocean age, and age‐specific selectivity of bycatch mortality in the Bering Sea. This study underscores the utility of flexible estimation models capable of fitting multiple data types and evaluating mortality from both natural and anthropogenic sources in multiple habitats. Overall, these analyses suggest that mortality at sea is the primary driver of population dynamics, yet under warming climate Chinook salmon populations at the northern extent of the species’ range may be expected to fare better than southern populations, but are influenced by foreign salmon production.     

Temperature acclimation and heat tolerance of photosynthesis in Norwegian Saccharina latissima (Laminariales,Phaeophyceae)

Kelps, seaweeds and seagrasses provide important ecosystem services in coastal areas, and loss of these macrophytes is a global concern. Recent surveys have documented severe declines in populations of the dominant kelp species, Saccharina latissima, along the south coast of Norway. S. latissima is a cold‐temperate species, and increasing seawater temperature has been suggested as one of the major causes of the decline. Several studies have shown that S. latissima can acclimate to a wide range of temperatures. However, local adaptations may render the extrapolation of existing results inappropriate. We investigated the potential for thermal acclimation and heat tolerance in S. latissima collected from three locations along the south coast of Norway. Plants were kept in laboratory cultures at three different growth temperatures (10, 15, and 20°C) for 4–6 weeks, after which their photosynthetic performance, fluorescence parameters, and pigment concentrations were measured. S. latissima obtained almost identical photosynthetic characteristics when grown at 10 and 15°C, indicating thermal acclimation at these temperatures. In contrast, plants grown at 20°C suffered substantial tissue deterioration, and showed reduced net photosynthetic capacity caused by a combination of elevated respiration and reduced gross photosynthesis due to lowered pigment concentrations, altered pigment composition, and reduced functionality of Photo‐system II. Our results support the hypothesis that extraordinarily high temperatures, as observed in 1997, 2002, and 2006, may have initiated the declines in S. latissima populations along the south coast of Norway. However, observations of high mortality in years with low summer temperatures suggest that reduced population resilience or other factors may have contributed to the losses.     

Long-term decline and recent recovery of Fucus populations along the rocky shores of southeast Sweden, Baltic Sea

The Fucus populations on rocky shores along 300 km of the coastal waters of southeast Sweden in the Baltic proper have been studied since 1984 at a number of fixed sites as part of monitoring programmes. This paper describes changes in distribution and abundance of F. vesiculosus and F. serratus during the period 1984–2001. Sheltered sites showed a consistent temporal and spatial pattern of Fucus spp. distribution over a coastline of 300 kilometres. The depth penetration and abundance of Fucus spp. increased during the 1980s. Around 1990 the development reversed as a consequence of grazing and in 1997 many sites were almost devoid of Fucus spp. Since 1998 both abundance and depth penetration have increased again, possibly as a result of local measures against eutrophication. Exposed sites, on the other hand, lost their Fucus populations at the beginning of the 1990s, and they have not recovered. Extended field studies lead us to deduce that the fixed sites referred to above were representative of the Fucus populations in the area investigated. Major declines, both at sheltered and exposed sites, are attributed to grazing by the isopod Idotea baltica. The populations of I. baltica may have been favoured by the continuing eutrophication of the Baltic, a series of mild winters in the 1990s, and a contemporary decline in some potential predators.     

Long-term decline and recent recovery of Fucus populations along the rocky shores of southeast Sweden, Baltic Sea

The Fucus populations on rocky shores along 300 km of the coastal waters of southeast Sweden in the Baltic proper have been studied since 1984 at a number of fixed sites as part of monitoring programmes. This paper describes changes in distribution and abundance of F. vesiculosus and F. serratus during the period 1984–2001. Sheltered sites showed a consistent temporal and spatial pattern of Fucus spp. distribution over a coastline of 300 kilometres. The depth penetration and abundance of Fucus spp. increased during the 1980s. Around 1990 the development reversed as a consequence of grazing and in 1997 many sites were almost devoid of Fucus spp. Since 1998 both abundance and depth penetration have increased again, possibly as a result of local measures against eutrophication. Exposed sites, on the other hand, lost their Fucus populations at the beginning of the 1990s, and they have not recovered. Extended field studies lead us to deduce that the fixed sites referred to above were representative of the Fucus populations in the area investigated. Major declines, both at sheltered and exposed sites, are attributed to grazing by the isopod Idotea baltica. The populations of I. baltica may have been favoured by the continuing eutrophication of the Baltic, a series of mild winters in the 1990s, and a contemporary decline in some potential predators.     

Meta-analysis of status and trends in breeding populations of black-fronted terns (

Black-fronted tern (Chlidonias albostriatus) breeding populations on braided rivers in the South Island, New?Zealand, are assumed to be in decline as their habitat comes under increasing pressure from exotic pests, hydroelectric power development and water abstraction. We collated 326 index counts of black-fronted terns from 2313?km of surveys on 84 rivers throughout their breeding range to test this assumption. Black-fronted terns were observed on 73% (n = 61) of rivers surveyed, and the sum of the most recent counts was 8325 birds. However, >200 black-fronted terns were counted on only 14% of rivers. We used generalised linear modelling to assess whether population trends could be detected using data from 29 rivers where counts were repeated 4?18 times between 1962 and 2008. We detected significant declines on eight rivers (range 5.5?15.8% p.a.), a significant increase on one river (Eglinton; 16.3% p.a.) and no trends on the remaining 20 rivers. The Eglinton River is the only site at which sustained predator control (aimed at mustelids) occurred throughout the monitoring period. Rivers on which declines have occurred are characterised by having relatively low flows (<30 m³ s^?1). At such rates, populations on low-flow rivers (64% of rivers surveyed, representing 51.4% of black-fronted terns counted on the oldest counts) would decline by a further c. 90% within 25 years. Based on these results we predict that if flows were reduced significantly on higher-flow rivers, rates of population decline would accelerate. We conclude that the IUCN status of ?Endangered? is appropriate for black-fronted terns, based on a predicted population reduction of around 50% over the next three generations (c. 30 years). This conclusion is supported by previous studies that described significant loss of habitat, low breeding success and vulnerability to predation by introduced mammals, and population models that predict continued declines towards extinction if management aimed at recovering populations is not instigated with some urgency.     

Devil Declines and Catastrophic Cascades: Is Mesopredator Release of Feral Cats Inhibiting Recovery of the Eastern Quoll?

The eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus) is a medium-sized Australian marsupial carnivore that has recently undergone a rapid and severe population decline over the 10 years to 2009, with no sign of recovery. This decline has been linked to a period of unfavourable weather, but subsequent improved weather conditions have not been matched by quoll recovery. A recent study suggested another mechanism: that declines in Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) populations, due to the spread of the fatal Devil Facial Tumour Disease, have released feral cats (Felis catus) from competitive suppression, with eastern quoll declines linked to a subsequent increase in cat sightings. Yet current evidence of intraguild suppression among devils, cats and quolls is scant and equivocal. We therefore assessed the influences of top-down effects on abundance and activity patterns among devils, feral cats and eastern quolls. Between 2011 and 2013, we monitored four carnivore populations using longitudinal trapping and camera surveys, and performed camera surveys at 12 additional sites throughout the eastern quoll’s range. We did not find evidence of a negative relationship between devil and cat abundance, nor of higher cat abundance in areas where devil populations had declined the longest. Cats did not appear to avoid devils spatially; however, there was evidence of temporal separation of cat and devil activity, with reduced separation and increasing nocturnal activity observed in areas where devils had declined the longest. Cats and quolls used the same areas, and there was no evidence that cat and quoll abundances were negatively related. Temporal overlap in observed cat and quoll activity was higher in summer than in winter, but this seasonal difference was unrelated to devil declines. We suggest that cats did not cause the recent quoll decline, but that predation of juvenile quolls by cats could be inhibiting low density quoll populations from recovering their former abundance through a ‘predator pit’ effect following weather-induced decline. Predation intensity could increase further should cats become increasingly nocturnal in response to devil declines.