Biogeographic and anthropogenic correlates of Aleutian Islands plant diversity: A machine‐learning approach

This is the first comprehensive analysis of vascular plant diversity patterns in the Aleutian Islands to identify and quantify the impact of Aleutian Island distance dispersal barriers, geographical, ecological and anthropogenic factors. Data from public Open Access databases, printed floristic accounts, and from collections made by the primary author were used to develop an Aleutian floristic database. The most common plant distribution pattern was “an eastern origin community”, though it compared similarly to the “Western” and “Widespread” distribution pattern. We established an ecological plant community composition class for each island, based on clustering species assemblage dissimilarity measurements (Jaccard Index), and a measurement of phylogenetic dissimilarity (UniFrac). We modelled these composition classes and species richness values in non‐parametric algorithmic models and concepts (data cloning using machine learning, stochastic boosting‐ TreeNet) based on classic and Aleutians‐specific island biogeography hypotheses. Plant species richness is strongly associated with the equilibrium model variables of area and island isolation, as well as distance to the Alaska Peninsula, and island total stream length. Species composition is strongly associated with the landmass groups during the last glacial maximum, maximum island elevation, island isolation and island area. Phylogenetic composition is associated with island area, distance from the islands to the Chukotka Peninsula, maximum island elevation, island geologic age, and island isolation. This study extends the equilibrium theory of island biogeography by including additional drivers of diversity during the Anthropocene, such as the landmass during the LGM, as well as factors that may be related to anthropogenic extinction rate.     

Do Geographically Isolated Grasslands Follow the Principle of Island Biogeography in a Landscape Scale? Taking Poyang Lake Grassland as an Example

As one of the basic theories of biodiversity conservation, island biogeography has been widely accepted in the past decades. Originally, island biogeography was put forward and applied in oceanic environments. But later on, it was found out that the application was not only limited to oceanic islands, but also in terrestrial environments with relatively isolated conditions. In terms of biodiversity level, island biogeography generally focuses on a small scale, such as species diversity and genetic diversity. The studies of biodiversity on a large-scale based on island biogeography, such as ecosystem and landscape scales, were seldomly conducted. Taking Poyang Lake, the largest fresh water lake in China as case study area, 30 grasslands were randomly selected to study whether island biogeography can be applied to grasslands at a landscape level from three island attributes (area, distance and shape), and the most important ecological variable (flooding) in Poyang Lake. The results showed that in general, grasslands have the property of an island, and follow the basic principle of island biogeography. We found the area and flooding duration were the two most important determinants of landscape diversity. There was a significant positive correlation between the grassland area and the landscape diversity, which could be well expressed by logarithmic function model (R² = 0.73). There was a negative correlation between flooding duration and landscape diversity, which could be described by an inverse model (R² = 0.206). The distance to mainland and the shape of grassland were correlated with landscape diversity, but the fitting result of the models was not as good as expected. The possible reason could be that Poyang Lake is a seasonal lake, the water level varies with hydrological conditions, so that the grasslands are not strongly isolated and their shape is not stable enough required by island biogeography. Furthermore, it indicates that besides area, distance and shape attributes, flooding strongly affects the biodiversity of grassland vegetation, and should not be ignored when applying island biogeography theory to Poyang Lake. This study is expected to be a supplement for island biogeography in terrestrial environments, and the results are expected to benefit for the biodiversity conservation in Poyang Lake.     

Island biogeography theory explains the genetic diversity of a fragmented rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta) population

The island biogeography theory is one of the major theories in ecology, and its applicability to natural systems is well documented. The core model of the theory, the equilibrium model of island biogeography, predicts that species diversity on an island is positively related to the size of the island, but negatively related by the island's distance to the mainland. In recent years, ecologists have begun to apply this model when investigating genetic diversity, arguing that genetic and species diversity might be influenced by similar ecological processes. However, most studies have focused on oceanic islands, but knowledge on how the theory applies to islands located on the mainland (e.g., mountain islands, forest islands) is scarce. In this study, we examined how the size and degree of isolation of mountain islands would affect the genetic diversity of an alpine bird, the rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta). Within our study area, we defined the largest contiguous mountain area as the mainland, while smaller mountains surrounding the mainland were defined as islands. We found that the observed heterozygosity (H_o) was significantly higher, and the inbreeding coefficient (F_is) significantly lower, on the mainland compared to islands. There was a positive significant relationship between the unbiased expected heterozygosity (H_n.b.) and island size (log km²), but a negative significant relationship between H_o and the cost distance to the mainland. Our results are consistent with the equilibrium model of island biogeography and show that the model is well suited for investigating genetic diversity among islands, but also on islands located on the mainland.     

Integrating the effects of area, isolation, and habitat heterogeneity on species diversity: a unification of island biogeography and niche theory

We present an analytical model that unifies two of the most influential theories in community ecology, namely, island biogeography and niche theory. Our model captures the main elements of both theories by incorporating the combined effects of area, isolation, stochastic colonization and extinction processes, habitat heterogeneity, and niche partitioning in a unified, demographically based framework. While classical niche theory predicts a positive relationship between species richness and habitat heterogeneity, our unified model demonstrates that area limitation and dispersal limitation (the main elements of island biogeography) may create unimodal and even negative relationships between species richness and habitat heterogeneity. We attribute this finding to the fact that increasing heterogeneity increases the potential number of species that may exist in a given area (as predicted by niche theory) but simultaneously reduces the amount of suitable area available for each species and, thus, increases the likelihood of stochastic extinction. Area limitation, dispersal limitation, and low reproduction rates intensify the latter effect by increasing the likelihood of stochastic extinction. These analytical results demonstrate that the integration of island biogeography and niche theory provides new insights about the mechanisms that regulate the diversity of ecological communities and generates unexpected predictions that could not be attained from any single theory.     

Factors determining mammal species richness on habitat islands and isolates: habitat diversity, disturbance, species interactions and guild assembly rules

• 1 For over three decades the equilibrium theory of island biogeography has galvanized studies in ecological biogeography. Studies of oceanic islands and of natural habitat islands share some similarities to continental studies, particularly in developed regions where habitat fragmentation results from many land uses. Increasingly, remnant habitat is in the form of isolates created by the clearing and destruction of natural areas. Future evolution of a theory to predict patterns of species abundance may well come from the application of island biogeography to habitat fragments or isolates.
• 2 In this paper we consider four factors other than area and isolation that influence the number and type of mammal species coexisting in one place: habitat diversity, habitat disturbance, species interactions and guild assembly rules. In all examples our data derive from mainland habitat, fragmented to differing degrees, with different levels of isolation.
• 3 Habitat diversity is seen to be a good predictor of species richness. Increased levels of disturbance produce a relatively greater decrease in species richness on smaller than on larger isolates. Species interactions in the recolonization of highly disturbed sites, such as regenerating mined sites, is analogous to island colonization. Species replacement sequences in secondary successions indicate not just how many, but which species are included. Lastly, the complement of species established on islands, or in insular habitats, may be governed by guild assembly rules. These contributions may assist in taking a renewed theory into the new millennium.

     

Concluding remarks: historical perspective and the future of island biogeography theory

MacArthur and Wilson’s equilibrium theory revolutionized the field of island biogeography and, to a large degree, ecology as well. The theory, which quickly became the ruling paradigm of island biogeography, has changed little over the past three decades. It has not kept pace with relevant theory and our growing appreciation for the complexity of nature, especially with empirical findings that species diversity on many islands: 1) is not in equilibrium; 2) is influenced by differences in speciation, colonization, and extinction among taxa; and 3) is influenced by differences among islands in characteristics other than area and isolation. The discipline of biogeography, itself, is in a state of disequilibrium. We may again be about to witness another paradigm shift, which will see the replacement of MacArthur and Wilson’s theory. Wherever this shift may take us, we are confident that the next generation of biogeographers will still look to islands for insights into the forces that shape biological diversity.     

Do forest plants conform to the theory of island biogeography: the case study of bog islands

Biodiversity conservation is confronted with increasing risk of extinction in isolated small-area remnants and the limitation of species to colonize recently formed habitats. We hypothesized that the equilibrium pattern of forest herb layer in long-term fragmented landscape should comply with the theory of island biogeography. Forests on mineral soil islands located in large mires of western Estonia were considered as dispersal target habitats, and forests on mainland and peninsulas in mires as sources. Species richness was the lowest in mainland forests and the effect was confounded by habitat structure, suggesting a negative effect of silvicultural management in easily accessible forests. We observed the ‘small island effect’, i.e. greater overall species richness in small-area habitats, which was determined by the habitat preference of shade tolerant generalists. The average species richness of common mainland forest specialists varied little, but capitalizing on the traditional approach and analyzing only island data, weak effects of distance and habitat quality were detected. At single species level, unexpectedly, many habitat specialists were observed to have successfully dispersed to islands, indicating insufficient knowledge of the long-distance dispersal mechanisms of forest-dwelling plants. In fragmented forest landscapes the theory of island biogeography can be applied to habitat specialist plant species, but only regarding the effect of isolation and in conditions of persistent forest structural quality. In the light of global changes, optimized conservation planning should primarily target on (i) the conservation of ancient habitat fragments independent of their current area, and (ii) the promotion of diversity of potential dispersal vectors in the landscape.     

Vicariance and marine migration in continental island populations of a frog endemic to the Atlantic Coastal forest

The theory of island biogeography is most often studied in the context of oceanic islands where all island inhabitants are descendants from founding events involving migration from mainland source populations. Far fewer studies have considered predictions of island biogeography in the case of continental islands, where island formation typically splits continuous populations and thus vicariance also contributes to the diversity of island populations. We examined one such case on continental islands in southeastern Brazil, to determine how classic island biogeography predictions and past vicariance explain the population genetic diversity of Thoropa taophora, a frog endemic to the Atlantic Coastal Forest. We used nuclear microsatellite markers to examine the genetic diversity of coastal and island populations of this species. We found that island isolation has a role in shaping the genetic diversity of continental island species, with island populations being significantly less diverse than coastal populations. However, area of the island and distance from coast had no significant effect on genetic diversity. We also found no significant differences between migration among coastal populations and migration to and from islands. We discuss how vicariance and the effects of continued migration between coastal and island populations interact to shape evolutionary patterns on continental islands.     

Leaves as islands for microbes

Summary The equilibrium theory of island biogeography provided a framework for describing the colonization of apple leaf islands by filamentous fungi. Surface sterilization of living leaves in situ by hydrogen peroxide allowed the colonization process to be followed from its inception. Numbers of species of filamentous fungi per leaf fluctuated from 6 to 21 during the first 2 weeks of colonization and equilibrated at about 12 by the third week. Turnover occurred in species composition at equilibrium. The equilibrium number of species was not related to leaf area.The presence of an equilibrium condition with turnover on the leaf surfaces is consistent with two key tenets of the theory of island biogeography. However, the apparent back of a species-area relationship is inconsistent with the island model.     

island biogeography of Day Geckos (Phelsuma) in the Indian Ocean

Summary Step-wise multiple regression was employed to probe the determinants of species diversity of day geckos (Phelsuma) in the Indian Ocean. Independent variables were area, elevation, and two measures of isolation. Distance from Madagascar and island height (an indicator of habitat diversity) were the two most important predictors of species richness. Similar studies on other taxa rarely find isolation to be a major factor. The relatively poor dispersal abilities of reptiles may explain why isolation, rather than attributes of the islands, are more important in this case. The regressions also indicate that habitat diversity (assumed to correlate with maximum island elevation) is more important than area per se in determining species diversity. These results agree with predictions of the equilibrium theory of island biogeography, but historical processes have also greatly influenced species richness.     

A global model of island biogeography

Aim The goal of our study was to build a global model of island biogeography explaining bird species richness that combines MacArthur and Wilson's area–isolation theory with the species–energy theory. Location Global. Methods We assembled a global data set of 346 marine islands representing all types of climate, topography and degree of isolation on our planet, ranging in size from 10 ha to 800,000 km². We built a multiple regression model with the number of non‐marine breeding bird species as the dependent variable. Results We found that about 85–90% of the global variance in insular bird species richness can be explained by simple, contemporary abiotic factors. On a global scale, the three major predictors — area, average annual temperature and the distance separating the islands from the nearest continent — all have constraining (i.e. triangular rather than linear) relationships with insular bird species richness. We found that the slope of the species–area curve depends on both average annual temperature and total annual precipitation, but not on isolation. Insular isolation depends not only on the distance of an island from the continent, but also on the presence or absence of other neighbouring islands. Range in elevation — a surrogate for diversity of habitats — showed a positive correlation with bird diversity in warmer regions of the world, while its effect was negative in colder regions. We also propose a global statistical model to quantify the isolation‐reducing effect of neighbouring islands. Main conclusions The variation in avian richness among islands worldwide can be statistically explained by contemporary environmental variables. The equilibrium theory of island biogeography of MacArthur and Wilson and the species–energy theory are both only partly correct. Global variation in richness depends about equally upon area, climate (temperature and precipitation) and isolation. The slope of the species richness–area curve depends upon climate, but not on isolation, in contrast to MacArthur and Wilson's theory.     

Turnover of vascular plant species on small islands in lake Möckeln,South Sweden 1976–1980

Summary In 1976, 1978 and 1980 plant species were recorded on 41 forested islands. Apparent species turnover was much higher than true turnover, as was confirmed by recording the age of trees and shrubs in 1980. Extinction rate was negatively correlated with island area and the number of immigrations declined with distance to the mailand. No clear differences in turnover were found for species with different dispersal systems. The proportion of the species populations on an island that consisted of only one individual declined with increasing island area. Conversely, species with 75 or more individuals made up about 17% of the floras on the smallest but about 32% on the largest islands. The results of this study suggest that MacArthur and Wilson's theory of island biogeography is applicable to plants.     

Diversity Over Time

Temporal turnover is a fundamental feature of ecological communities. Darwin 1859 noted the ecological and evolutionary significance of turnover, Fisher and Preston acknowledged its role in their models of species abundance, while this ongoing and entirely natural rearrangement of species underpins key ecological concepts such as MacArthur and Wilson’s theory of island biogeography. However, the current focus on spatial patterns of diversity means that temporal changes are often overlooked. Here I argue that failure to take heed of the time frame over which data are collected can lead to both artefacts and artifictions. There are also deeper issues, such as the consequences for species richness estimation and rarefaction methods of a constantly changing community. Moreover, some of the confusion surrounding species abundance distributions may be resolved by taking account of time. A better appreciation of temporal turnover is essential for accurate diversity measurement and assessment, and, more importantly, will also lead to improved understanding of the processes that underpin community structure.     

How to resolve the SLOSS debate: Lessons from species-diversity models

The SLOSS debate - whether a single large reserve will conserve more species than several small - of the 1970s and 1980s never came to a resolution. The first rule of reserve design states that one large reserve will conserve the most species, a rule which has been heavily contested. Empirical data seem to undermine the reliance on general rules, indicating that the best strategy varies from case to case. Modeling has also been deployed in this debate. We may divide the modeling approaches to the SLOSS enigma into dynamic and static approaches. Dynamic approaches, covered by the fields of island equilibrium theory of island biogeography and metapopulation theory, look at immigration, emigration, and extinction. Static approaches, such as the one in this paper, illustrate how several factors affect the number of reserves that will save the most species.This article approaches the effect of different factors by the application of species-diversity models. These models combine species-area curves for two or more reserves, correcting for the species overlap between them. Such models generate several predictions on how different factors affect the optimal number of reserves. The main predictions are: Fewer and larger reserves are favored by increased species overlap between reserves, by faster growth in number of species with reserve area increase, by higher minimum-area requirements, by spatial aggregation and by uneven species abundances. The effect of increased distance between smaller reserves depends on the two counteracting factors: decreased species density caused by isolation (which enhances minimum-area effect) and decreased overlap between isolates. The first decreases the optimal number of reserves; the second increases the optimal number. The effect of total reserve-system area depends both on the shape of the species-area curve and on whether overlap between reserves changes with scale.The approach to modeling presented here has several implications for conservational strategies. It illustrates well how the SLOSS enigma can be reduced to a question of the shape of the species-area curve that is expected or generated from reserves of different sizes and a question of overlap between isolates (or reserves).     

A generalized model of island biogeography

MacArthur and Wilson’s equilibrium theory is one of the most influential theories in ecology. Although evolution on islands is to be important to island biodiversity, speciation has not been well integrated into island biogeography models. By incorporating speciation and factors influencing it into the MacArthur-Wilson model, we propose a generalized model unifying ecological and evolutionary processes and island features. Intra-island speciation may play an important role in both island species richness and endemism, and the contribution of speciation to local species diversity may eventually be greater than that of immigration under certain conditions. Those conditions are related to the per species speciation rate, per species extinction rate, and island features, and they are independent of immigration rate. The model predicts that large islands will have a high, though not the highest, proportional endemism when other parameters are fixed. Based on the generalized model, changes in species richness and endemism on an oceanic island over time were predicted to be similar to empirical observations. Our model provides an ideal starting point for re-evaluating the role of speciation and re-analyzing available data on island species diversity, especially those biased by the MacArthur-Wilson model.     

Extensions of Island Biogeography Theory predict the scaling of functional trait composition with habitat area and isolation

The Theory of Island Biogeography (TIB) predicts how area and isolation influence species richness equilibrium on insular habitats. However, the TIB remains silent about functional trait composition and provides no information on the scaling of functional diversity with area, an observation that is now documented in many systems. To fill this gap, we develop a probabilistic approach to predict the distribution of a trait as a function of habitat area and isolation, extending the TIB beyond the traditional species–area relationship. We compare model predictions to the body‐size distribution of piscivorous and herbivorous fishes found on tropical reefs worldwide. We find that small and isolated reefs have a higher proportion of large‐sized species than large and connected reefs. We also find that knowledge of species body‐size and trophic position improves the predictions of fish occupancy on tropical reefs, supporting both the allometric and trophic theory of island biogeography. The integration of functional ecology to island biogeography is broadly applicable to any functional traits and provides a general probabilistic approach to study the scaling of trait distribution with habitat area and isolation.     

Genetic and phylogenetic consequences of island biogeography

Abstract.— Island biogeography theory predicts that the number of species on an island should increase with island size and decrease with island distance to the mainland. These predictions are generally well supported in comparative and experimental studies. These ecological, equilibrium predictions arise as a result of colonization and extinction processes. Because colonization and extinction are also important processes in evolution, we develop methods to test evolutionary predictions of island biogeography. We derive a population genetic model of island biogeography that incorporates island colonization, migration of individuals from the mainland, and extinction of island populations. The model provides a means of estimating the rates of migration and extinction from population genetic data. This model predicts that within an island population the distribution of genetic divergences with respect to the mainland source population should be bimodal, with much of the divergence dating to the colonization event. Across islands, this model predicts that populations on large islands should be on average more genetically divergent from mainland source populations than those on small islands. Likewise, populations on distant islands should be more divergent than those on close islands. Published observations of a larger proportion of endemic species on large and distant islands support these predictions.     

物种保护的理论基础——从岛屿生物地理学理论到集合种群理论

全球面临着生境破碎化的危机,物种保护已成为人类面临的重大课题,并不是所有的人对岛屿生物地理学理论的产生及其关注的海洋岛屿都很熟悉,但是越来越多生物赖以生存的自然栖息地的丧失和破碎化都是有目共睹的,岛屿生物地理学和集合种群理论是目前物种保护的两个基本理论,物种迁入率和绝灭率的动态变化决策岛屿上的物种丰富度是岛屿生物地理学理论的核心内容,而集合种群理论关注的是局部种群之间个体迁移的动态以及物种的续存条件,在概述两个理论形成、发展及其核心内容的基础上,着重比较它们的异同点以及在生态学理论和实践中的应用,并论述物种保护理论范式从岛屿生物地理学向集合种群理论转变的基本背景和原因。     

Increase of island endemism with altitude – speciation processes on oceanic islands

Understanding speciation on oceanic islands is a major topic in current research on island biogeography. Within this context, it is not an easy task to differentiate between the influence of elevation as an indicator for habitat diversity and island age as an indicator for the time available for diversification. One reason for this is that erosion processes reduce the elevation of islands over time. In addition, the geographic distance to source ecosystems might differ among habitats, which could lead to habitat‐specific reduction of species immigration, niche occupation and diversification. We used the percentage of single island endemic species (pSIE) in five different zonal ecosystems (distributed in altitude) on the Canary Islands as an indicator for diversification. We tested whether diversification increases with altitude due to a greater ecological isolation of high elevation ecosystems on oceanic islands under the assumption of a low elevation source region on the mainland. In addition we tested whether the ‘hump‐shaped’ (unimodal) relationship between pSIE and island age as well as the linear relationship between species richness and pSIE is consistent across spatial scales. We also analyse a potential influence of island area and habitat area. We found that pSIE increases with elevation. The relations between species richness as well as age with pSIE are consistent across scales. We conclude that high elevation ecosystems are ecologically isolated. Surprisingly, the altitudinal belt with the strongest human influences has the highest values of pSIE. We successfully transfer the ‘general dynamic theory of island biogeography’ to the ecosystem scale, which provides multiple opportunities for future studies. With this approach we find that the effects of elevation on diversification can be separated from those of island age.     

ISLAND BIOGEOGRAPHY AND PALAEOBIOLOGY: IN SEARCH FOR EVOLUTIONARY EQUILIBRIA

1. The concept of evolutionary equilibrium has been derived from the theory of island biogeography via an ecological rationale for increase in species extinction rate and decrease in speciation rate with increasing diversity of the system.
2. This concept is theoretically plausible at the species level and at a regional scale but, in spite of several empirical tests in the fossil record, it has thus far remained unsupported by empirical evidence. In order to test it conclusively, one has to analyze not only the pattern of species number through time but also its relationship to speciation and species extinction rates; independent evidence for perturbations must also be available.
3. The concept of evolutionary equilibrium at the global scale must be extrapolated over higher levels of taxonomic hierarchy, for reliable species-level data are unavailable at this scale. A theoretical justification for this concept cannot, then, be derived from the theory of island biogeography.
4. The rates of family extinction and origination in the Phanerozoic show no evidence for diversity-dependence, which undermines most quantitative models of biotic diversification based on the concept of global evolutionary equilibrium. Rigorous testing of these models cannot be done at the present state of knowledge because of the uncertainty about the empirical pattern (sampling and taxonomic biases, absolute time scale).