Predictive modeling for allopatric Strix (Strigiformes: Strigidae) owls in South America: determinants of their distributions and ecological niche‐based processes

Strix (Strigidae) is a worldwide genus of 17 owl species typical of forested habitats, including Rusty‐barred Owls (S. hylophila), Chaco Owls (S. chacoensis), and Rufous‐legged Owls (S. rufipes) in South America. These species are distributed allopatrically, but the ecological traits that determine their distributions remain largely unknown and their phylogenetic relationships are unclear. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to identify variables explaining their distribution patterns and test hypotheses about ecological divergence and conservatism based on niche overlap analysis. For Rusty‐barred Owls and Chaco Owls, climatic factors related to temperature played a major role, whereas a rainfall variable was more important for Rufous‐legged Owls. When niche overlaps were compared, accounting for regional similarities in the habitat available to each species, an ecological niche divergence process was supported for Chaco Owl‐Rusty‐barred Owl and Chaco Owl‐Rufous‐legged Owl, whereas a niche conservatism process was supported for Rusty‐barred Owl‐Rufous‐legged Owl. Different ecological requirements support current species delimitation, but they are in disagreement with the two main hypotheses currently envisaged about their phylogenetic relationships (Chaco Owls as the sister taxa of either Rufous‐legged Owls or Rusty‐barred Owls) and support a new phylogenetic hypothesis (Rufous‐legged Owls as sister taxa of Rusty‐barred Owls). Our findings suggest that speciation of Rusty‐barred Owls and Rufous‐legged Owls was a vicariant event resulting from Atlantic marine transgressions in southern South America in the Miocene, but their niche was conserved because habitat changed little in their respective ranges. In contrast, Chaco Owls diverged ecologically from the other two species as a result of their adaptations to the habitat they currently occupy. Ecological and historical approaches in biogeography can be embedded to explain distribution patterns, and results provided by SDMs can be used to infer historical and ecological processes in an integrative way.     

Phylogeny and biogeography of the American live oaks (Quercus subsection Virentes): a genomic and population genetics approach

The nature and timing of evolution of niche differentiation among closely related species remains an important question in ecology and evolution. The American live oak clade, Virentes, which spans the unglaciated temperate and tropical regions of North America and Mesoamerica, provides an instructive system in which to examine speciation and niche evolution. We generated a fossil‐calibrated phylogeny of Virentes using RADseq data to estimate divergence times and used nuclear microsatellites, chloroplast sequences and an intron region of nitrate reductase (NIA‐i3) to examine genetic diversity within species, rates of gene flow among species and ancestral population size of disjunct sister species. Transitions in functional and morphological traits associated with ecological and climatic niche axes were examined across the phylogeny. We found the Virentes to be monophyletic with three subclades, including a southwest clade, a southeastern US clade and a Central American/Cuban clade. Despite high leaf morphological variation within species and transpecific chloroplast haplotypes, RADseq and nuclear SSR data showed genetic coherence of species. We estimated a crown date for Virentes of 11 Ma and implicated the formation of the Sea of Cortés in a speciation event ~5 Ma. Tree height at maturity, associated with fire tolerance, differs among the sympatric species, while freezing tolerance appears to have diverged repeatedly across the tropical–temperate divide. Sympatric species thus show evidence of ecological niche differentiation but share climatic niches, while allopatric and parapatric species conserve ecological niches, but diverge in climatic niches. The mode of speciation and/or degree of co‐occurrence may thus influence which niche axis plants diverge along.     

Evidence of ecological niche shift in Rhododendron ponticum (L.) in Britain: Hybridization as a possible cause of rapid niche expansion

Biological invasions threaten global biodiversity and natural resources. Anticipating future invasions is central to strategies for combating the spread of invasive species. Ecological niche models are thus increasingly used to predict potential distribution of invasive species. In this study, we compare ecological niches of Rhododendron ponticum in its native (Iberian Peninsula) and invasive (Britain) ranges. Here, we test the conservation of ecological niche between invasive and native populations of R. ponticum using principal component analysis, niche dynamics analysis, and MaxEnt‐based reciprocal niche modeling. We show that niche overlap between native and invasive populations is very low, leading us to the conclusion that the two niches are not equivalent and are dissimilar. We conclude that R. ponticum occupies novel environmental conditions in Britain. However, the evidence of niche shift presented in this study should be treated with caution because of nonanalogue climatic conditions between native and invasive ranges and a small population size in the native range. We then frame our results in the context of contradicting genetic evidence on possible hybridization of this invasive species in Britain. We argue that the existing contradictory studies on whether hybridization caused niche shift in R. ponticum are not sufficient to prove or disprove this hypothesis. However, we present a series of theoretical arguments which indicate that hybridization is a likely cause of the observed niche expansion of R. ponticum in Britain.     

Ecological niche models display nonlinear relationships with abundance and demographic performance across the latitudinal distribution of Astragalus utahensis (Fabaceae)

The potential for ecological niche models (ENMs) to accurately predict species' abundance and demographic performance throughout their geographic distributions remains a topic of substantial debate in ecology and biogeography. Few studies simultaneously examine the relationship between ENM predictions of environmental suitability and both a species' abundance and its demographic performance, particularly across its entire geographic distribution. Yet, studies of this type are essential for understanding the extent to which ENMs are a viable tool for identifying areas that may promote high abundance or performance of a species or how species might respond to future climate conditions. In this study, we used an ensemble ecological niche model to predict climatic suitability for the perennial forb Astragalus utahensis across its geographic distribution. We then examined relationships between projected climatic suitability and field‐based measures of abundance, demographic performance, and forecasted stochastic population growth (λ_s). Predicted climatic suitability showed a J‐shaped relationship with A. utahensis abundance, where low‐abundance populations were associated with low‐to‐intermediate suitability scores and abundance increased sharply in areas of high predicted climatic suitability. A similar relationship existed between climatic suitability and λ_s from the center to the northern edge of the latitudinal distribution. Patterns such as these, where density or demographic performance only increases appreciably beyond some threshold of climatic suitability, support the contention that ENM‐predicted climatic suitability does not necessarily represent a reliable predictor of abundance or performance across large geographic regions.     

The combined role of dispersal and niche evolution in the diversification of Neotropical lizards

Ecological requirements and environmental conditions can influence diversification across temporal and spatial scales. Understanding the role of ecological niche evolution under phylogenetic contexts provides insights on speciation mechanisms and possible responses to future climatic change. Large‐scale phyloclimatic studies on the megadiverse Neotropics, where biomes with contrasting vegetation types occur in narrow contact, are rare. We integrate ecological and biogeographic data with phylogenetic comparative methods, to investigate the relative roles of biogeographic events and niche divergence and conservatism on the diversification of the lizard genus Kentropyx Spix, 1825 (Squamata: Teiidae), distributed in South American rainforests and savannas. Using five molecular markers, we estimated a dated species tree, which recovered three clades coincident with previously proposed species groups diverging during the mid‐Miocene. Biogeography reconstruction indicates a role of successive dispersal events from an ancestral range in the Brazilian Shield and western Amazonia. Ancestral reconstruction of climatic tolerances and niche overlap metrics indicates a trend of conservatism during the diversification of groups from the Amazon Basin and Guiana Shield, and a strong signal of niche divergence in the Brazilian Shield savannas. Our results suggest that climatic‐driven divergence at dynamic forest‐savanna borders might have resulted in adaptation to new environmental niches, promoting habitat shifts and shaping speciation patterns of Neotropical lizards. Dispersal and ecological divergence could have a more important role in Neotropical diversification than previously thought.     

Division within the North American boreal forest: Ecological niche divergence between the Bicknell's Thrush (Catharus bicknelli) and Gray‐cheeked Thrush (C. minimus)

Sister species that diverged in allopatry in similar environments are expected to exhibit niche conservatism. Using ecological niche modeling and a multivariate analysis of climate and habitat data, I test the hypothesis that the Bicknell's Thrush (Catharus bicknelli) and Gray‐cheeked Thrush (C. mimimus), sister species that breed in the North American boreal forest, show niche conservatism. Three tree species that are important components of breeding territories of both thrush species were combined with climatic variables to create niche models consisting of abiotic and biotic components. Abiotic‐only, abiotic+biotic, and biotic‐only models were evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) criterion. Abiotic+biotic models had higher AUC scores and did not over‐project thrush distributions compared to abiotic‐only or biotic‐only models. From the abiotic+biotic models, I tested for niche conservatism or divergence by accounting for the differences in the availability of niche components by calculating (1) niche overlap from ecological niche models and (2) mean niche differences of environmental values at occurrence points. Niche background similarity tests revealed significant niche divergence in 10 of 12 comparisons, and multivariate tests revealed niche divergence along 2 of 3 niche axes. The Bicknell's Thrush breeds in warmer and wetter regions with a high abundance of balsam fir (Abies balsamea), whereas Gray‐cheeked Thrush often co‐occurs with black spruce (Picea mariana). Niche divergence, rather than conservatism, was the predominant pattern for these species, suggesting that ecological divergence has played a role in the speciation of the Bicknell's Thrush and Gray‐cheeked Thrush. Furthermore, because niche models were improved by the incorporation of biotic variables, this study validates the inclusion of relevant biotic factors in ecological niche modeling to increase model accuracy.     

Step back! Niche dynamics in cave-dwelling predators

The geometry of the Hutchinson’s hypervolume derives from multiple selective pressures defined, on one hand, by the physiological tolerance of the species, and on the other, by intra- and interspecific competition. The quantification of these evolutionary forces is essential for the understanding of the coexistence of predators in light of competitive exclusion dynamics. We address this topic by investigating the ecological niche of two medium-sized troglophile spiders (Meta menardi and Pimoa graphitica). Over one year, we surveyed several populations in four subterranean sites in the Western Italian Alps, monitoring monthly their spatial and temporal dynamics and the associated physical and ecological variables. We assessed competition between the two species by means of multi regression techniques and by evaluating the intersection between their multidimensional hypervolumes. We detected a remarkable overlap between the microclimatic and trophic niche of M. menardi and P. graphitica, however, the former —being larger in size— resulted the best competitor in proximity of the cave entrance, causing the latter to readjust its spatial niche towards the inner part, where prey availability is scarcer (“step back effect”). In parallel to the slight variations in the subterranean microclimatic condition, the niche of the two species was also found to be seasonal dependent, varying over the year. With this work, we aim at providing new insights about the relationships among predators, demonstrating that energy-poor environments such as caves maintain the potential for diversification of predators via niche differentiation and serve as useful models for theoretical ecological studies.     

Climate,physiological tolerance and sex‐biased dispersal shape genetic structure of Neotropical orchid bees

Understanding the impact of past climatic events on the demographic history of extant species is critical for predicting species' responses to future climate change. Palaeoclimatic instability is a major mechanism of lineage diversification in taxa with low dispersal and small geographical ranges in tropical ecosystems. However, the impact of these climatic events remains questionable for the diversification of species with high levels of gene flow and large geographical distributions. In this study, we investigate the impact of Pleistocene climate change on three Neotropical orchid bee species (Eulaema bombiformis, E. meriana and E. cingulata) with transcontinental distributions and different physiological tolerances. We first generated ecological niche models to identify species‐specific climatically stable areas during Pleistocene climatic oscillations. Using a combination of mitochondrial and nuclear markers, we inferred calibrated phylogenies and estimated historical demographic parameters to reconstruct the phylogeographical history of each species. Our results indicate species with narrower physiological tolerance experienced less suitable habitat during glaciations and currently exhibit strong population structure in the mitochondrial genome. However, nuclear markers with low and high mutation rates show lack of association with geography. These results combined with lower migration rate estimates from the mitochondrial than the nuclear genome suggest male‐biased dispersal. We conclude that despite large effective population sizes and capacity for long‐distance dispersal, climatic instability is an important mechanism of maternal lineage diversification in orchid bees. Thus, these Neotropical pollinators are susceptible to disruption of genetic connectivity in the event of large‐scale climatic changes.     

Dietary partitioning promotes the coexistence of planktivorous species on coral reefs

Theories involving niche diversification to explain high levels of tropical diversity propose that species are more likely to co‐occur if they partition at least one dimension of their ecological niche space. Yet, numerous species appear to have widely overlapping niches based upon broad categorizations of resource use or functional traits. In particular, the extent to which food partitioning contributes to species coexistence in hyperdiverse tropical ecosystems remains unresolved. Here, we use a molecular approach to investigate inter‐ and intraspecific dietary partitioning between two species of damselfish (Dascyllus flavicaudus, Chromis viridis) that commonly co‐occur in branching corals. Species‐level identification of their diverse zooplankton prey revealed significant differences in diet composition between species despite their seemingly similar feeding strategies. Dascyllus exhibited a more diverse diet than Chromis, whereas Chromis tended to select larger prey items. A large calanoid copepod, Labidocera sp., found in low density and higher in the water column during the day, explained more than 19% of the variation in dietary composition between Dascyllus and Chromis. Dascyllus did not significantly shift its diet in the presence of Chromis, which suggests intrinsic differences in feeding behaviour. Finally, prey composition significantly shifted during the ontogeny of both fish species. Our findings show that levels of dietary specialization among coral reef associated species have likely been underestimated, and they underscore the importance of characterizing trophic webs in tropical ecosystems at higher levels of taxonomic resolution. They also suggest that niche redundancy may not be as common as previously thought.     

Balamuthia mandrillaris: In Vitro Interactions with Selected Protozoa and Algae

Although Balamuthia mandrillaris was identified more than two decades ago as an agent of fatal granulomatous encephalitis in humans and other animals, little is known about its ecological niche, biological behavior in the environment, food preferences and predators, if any. When infecting humans or other animals, Balamuthia feeds on tissues; and in vitro culture, it feeds on mammalian cells (monkey kidney cells, human lung fibroblasts, and human microvascular endothelial cells). According to recent reports, it is believed that Balamuthia feeds on small amebae, for example, Acanthamoeba that are present in its ecological niche. To test this hypothesis, we associated Balamuthia on a one‐on‐one basis with selected protozoa and algae. We videotaped the behavior of Balamuthia in the presence of a potential prey, its ability to hunt and attack its food, and the time required to eat and cause damage to the target cell by direct contact. We found that B. mandrillaris ingested trophozoites of Naegleria fowleri, Naegleria gruberi, Acanthamoeba spp., Trypanosoma cruzi epimastigotes, Toxoplasma gondii tachyzoites, and Giardia. However, it did not feed on Acanthamoeba cysts or algae. Balamuthia caused cytolysis of T. cruzi epimastigotes and T. gondii tachyzoites by direct contact. Balamuthia trophozoites and cysts were, however, eaten by Paramecium sp.     

Ecological differentiation,speciation, and rarity: How do they match in Tephroseris longifolia agg. (Asteraceae)?

Tephroseris longifolia agg. is a complex group of outcrossing perennials distributed throughout Central Europe. Recent morphological study revealed six morphotypes corresponding to five previously distinguished subspecies, together with Alpine and Pannonian morphotypes of T. longifolia subsp. longifolia. The delimited morphotypes differ in relative DNA content, geographical range, and rarity. We compared ecological niches of the six morphotypes in order to assess the impact of ecological differentiation on the speciation processes within the T. longifolia agg. Further, we examined whether morphotypes with small range are more ecologically specialized than their widespread relatives. The distribution area of the aggregate includes the Alps, Apennines, Carpathians, and the Pannonian Basin. Ecological variables linked to climate, topography, soil, and vegetation were gathered from 135 circular plots recorded in 35 localities. Related variables were grouped to describe the partial ecological niches: climatic, topographic, pedological, biotic, and coenotic (based either on vascular plants or on bryophytes), each of them visualized as an envelope in the two‐dimensional nonmetric multidimensional scaling ordination space. Each partial ecological niche for a given morphotype was characterized by its position (location of the envelope centroid), breadth (surface of the envelope), and overlaps with envelopes of the other morphotypes. Mantel statistics based on Spearman correlation coefficients were used to quantify differentiation of morphotypes in ecological parameters represented by the partial ecological niches. The significant niche differentiation was confirmed for climatic, topographic, pedological, and vascular plant‐based coenotic niches. Ecological niche differentiation corresponded well to morphological and partially also to karyological differentiation. Narrowly distributed morphotypes occupied more specific habitats and had narrower ecological niches than their widespread relatives. Ecological differentiation could be considered an important driver in allopatric speciation within the T. longifolia agg. Our results demonstrate that quantification of ecological divergence is helpful in assessing evolutionary history of closely related taxa.     

Intraspecific and interspecific competition induces density‐dependent habitat niche shifts in an endangered steppe bird

Interspecific competition is a dominant force in animal communities that induces niche shifts in ecological and evolutionary time. If competition occurs, niche expansion can be expected when the competitor disappears because resources previously inaccessible due to competitive constraints can then be exploited (i.e., ecological release). Here, we aimed to determine the potential effects of interspecific competition between the little bustard (Tetrax tetrax) and the great bustard (Otis tarda) using a multidimensional niche approach with habitat distribution data. We explored whether the degree of niche overlap between the species was a density‐dependent function of interspecific competition. We then looked for evidences of ecological release by comparing measures of niche breadth and position of the little bustard between allopatric and sympatric situations. Furthermore, we evaluated whether niche shifts could depend not only on the presence of great bustard but also on the density of little and great bustards. The habitat niches of these bustard species partially overlapped when co‐occurring, but we found no relationship between degree of overlap and great bustard density. In the presence of the competitor, little bustard's niche was displaced toward increased use of the species' primary habitat. Little bustard's niche breadth decreased proportionally with great bustard density in sympatric sites, in consistence with theory. Overall, our results suggest that density‐dependent variation in little bustard's niche is the outcome of interspecific competition with the great bustard. The use of computational tools like kernel density estimators to obtain multidimensional niches should bring novel insights on how species' ecological niches behave under the effects of interspecific competition in ecological communities.     

Biogeographic history of subterranean isopods from groundwater calcrete islands in Western Australia

Groundwater calcretes in arid central Western Australia contain a diverse invertebrate groundwater fauna (stygofauna). Surveys have uncovered a diverse oniscidean isopod subterranean fauna above the water table (troglofauna), including species of a recently described genus Paraplatyarthrus. The aim of this study was to investigate the biogeographic history of Paraplatyarthrus and the timing of transitions from surface to subterranean habitats. Phylogenetic relationships among the isopod troglofauna from 11 groundwater calcretes along three palaeodrainage systems were assessed using one mitochondrial gene, cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (COI), and two nuclear markers, lysyl‐tRNA synthetase (LysRS) and 18S rRNA (18S) genes. Phylogenetic analyses revealed multiple sister lineage relationships between troglophile and troglobite lineages and evidence for divergent mtDNA lineages within species, providing a range of nodes for dating evolutionary transitions from surface to subterranean habitats. Relaxed molecular clock analyses provided evidence that evolutionary transitions from surface to subterranean environments took place between 13.3 and 1.75 million years ago, coinciding with the onset of aridification of Australia from the late Tertiary. In cases where groundwater calcretes contained multiple species, the taxa were not closely related phylogenetically, suggesting that these calcretes were independently colonised by multiple ancestral species. The study further confirmed the role of late/post‐Miocene aridification as a key driver of the evolution of subterranean invertebrates in the calcrete islands of Western Australia, supporting the climatic relict hypothesis. Troglobites most likely evolved from the troglophile ancestors that were capable of dispersal among, and active colonisation of, calcretes.     

Insights from ecological niche modeling on the taxonomic distinction and niche differentiation between the black‐spotted and red‐spotted tokay geckoes (Gekko gecko)

The black‐spotted tokay and the red‐spotted tokay are morphologically distinct and have largely allopatric distributions. The black‐spotted tokay is characterized by a small body size and dark skin with sundry spots, while the red‐spotted tokay has a relatively large body size and red spots. Based on morphological, karyotypic, genetic, and distribution differences, recent studies suggested their species status; however, their classifications remain controversial, and additional data such as ecological niches are necessary to establish firm hypotheses regarding their taxonomic status. We reconstructed their ecological niches models using climatic and geographic data. We then performed niche similarity tests (niche identity and background tests) and point‐based analyses to explore whether ecological differentiation has occurred, and whether such differences are sufficient to explain the maintenance of their separate segments of environmental ranges. We found that both niche models of the black‐ and the red‐spotted tokay had a good fit and a robust performance, as indicated by the high area under the curve (AUC) values (“black” = 0.982, SD = ± 0.002, “red” = 0.966 ± 0.02). Significant ecological differentiation across the entire geographic range was found, indicating that the involvement of ecological differentiation is important for species differentiation. Divergence along the environmental axes is highly associated with climatic conditions, with isothermality being important for the “black” form, while temperature seasonality, precipitation of warmest quarter, and annual temperature range together being important for the “red” form. These factors are likely important factors in niche differentiation between the two forms, which result in morphological replacement. Overall, beside morphological and genetic differentiation information, our results contribute to additional insights into taxonomic distinction and niche differentiation between the black‐ and the red‐spotted tokay.     

Niche opportunities and invasion dynamics in a desert annual community

Although many factors influence the ability of exotics to invade successfully, most studies focus on only a few variables to explain invasion; attempts at theoretical synthesis are largely untested. The niche opportunities framework proposes that the demographic success of an invader is largely affected by the availability of resources and the abundance of its enemies. Here, we use a 31‐year study from a desert ecosystem to examine the niche opportunities framework via the invasion of the annual plant Erodium cicutarium. While the invader remained rare for two decades, a decline in granivory combined with an ideal climate window created an opportunity for E. cicutarium to escape control and become the dominant annual plant in the community. We show that fluctuations in consumption and resources can create niche opportunities for invaders and highlight the need for additional long‐term studies to track the influence of changing climate and community dynamics on invasions.     

Integrating mechanistic and empirical model projections to assess climate impacts on tree species distributions in northwestern North America

Empirical and mechanistic models have both been used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on species distributions, and each modeling approach has its strengths and weaknesses. Here, we demonstrate an approach to projecting climate‐driven changes in species distributions that draws on both empirical and mechanistic models. We combined projections from a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) that simulates the distributions of biomes based on basic plant functional types with projections from empirical climatic niche models for six tree species in northwestern North America. These integrated model outputs incorporate important biological processes, such as competition, physiological responses of plants to changes in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, and fire, as well as what are likely to be species‐specific climatic constraints. We compared the integrated projections to projections from the empirical climatic niche models alone. Overall, our integrated model outputs projected a greater climate‐driven loss of potentially suitable environmental space than did the empirical climatic niche model outputs alone for the majority of modeled species. Our results also show that refining species distributions with DGVM outputs had large effects on the geographic locations of suitable habitat. We demonstrate one approach to integrating the outputs of mechanistic and empirical niche models to produce bioclimatic projections. But perhaps more importantly, our study reveals the potential for empirical climatic niche models to over‐predict suitable environmental space under future climatic conditions.     

Niche shifting in response to warming climate after the last glacial maximum: inference from genetic data and niche assessments in the chisel‐toothed kangaroo rat (Dipodomys microps)

During Pleistocene glacial‐interglacial cycles, the geographic range is often assumed to have shifted as a species tracks its climatic niche. Alternatively, the geographic range would not necessarily shift if a species can adapt in situ to a changing environment. The potential for a species to persist in place might increase with the diversity of habitat types that a species exploits. We evaluate evidence for either range shift or range stability between the last glacial maximum (LGM) and present time in the chisel‐toothed kangaroo rat (Dipodomys microps), an endemic of the Great Basin and Mojave deserts. We modeled how the species’ range would have changed if the climatic niche of the species remained conserved between the LGM and present time. The climatic models imply that if D. microps inhabited the same climatic niche during the LGM as it does today, the species would have persisted primarily within the warm Mojave Desert and expanded northwards into the cold Great Basin only after the LGM. Contrary to the climatic models, the mitochondrial DNA assessment revealed signals of population persistence within the current distribution of the species throughout at least the latest glacial‐interglacial cycle. We concluded that D. microps did not track its climatic niche during late Pleistocene oscillations, but rather met the challenge of a changing environment by shifting its niche and retaining large portions of its distribution. We speculate that this kind of response to fluctuating climate was possible because of ‘niche drifting’, an alteration of the species’ realized niche due to plasticity in various biological characters. Our study provides an example of an approach to reconstruct species’ responses to past climatic changes that can be used to evaluate whether and to what extent taxa have capacity to shift their niches in response to the changing environment – information becoming increasingly important to predicting biotic responses to future environmental changes.     

Niche conservatism and phylogenetic clustering in a tribe of arid‐adapted marsupial mice,the Sminthopsini

The progressive expansion of the Australian arid zone during the last 20 Ma appears to have spurred the diversification of several families of plants, vertebrates and invertebrates, yet such taxonomic groups appear to show limited niche radiation. Here, we test whether speciation is associated with niche conservatism (constraints on ecological divergence) or niche divergence in a tribe of marsupial mice (Sminthopsini; 23 taxa) that includes the most speciose genus of living dasyurids, the sminthopsins. To that end, we integrated phylogenetic data with ecological niche modelling, to enable us to reconstruct the evolution of climatic suitability within Sminthopsini. Niche overlap among species was low‐moderate (but generally higher than expected given environmental background similarity), and the degree of phylogenetic clustering increased with aridity. Climatic niche reconstruction illustrates that there has been little apparent evolution of climatic tolerance within clades. Accordingly, climatic disparity tends to be accumulated among clades, suggesting considerable niche conservatism. Our results also indicate that evolution of climatic tolerances has been heterogeneous across different dimensions of climate (temperature vs. precipitation) and across phylogenetic clusters (Sminthopsis murina group vs. other groups). Although some results point to the existence of shifts in climatic niches during the speciation of sminthopsins, our study provides evidence for substantial phylogenetic niche conservatism in the group. We conclude that niche diversification had a low impact on the speciation of this tribe of small, but highly mobile marsupials.     

Glacial cycles drive rapid divergence of cryptic field vole species

Understanding the factors that contribute to the generation of reproductively isolated forms is a fundamental goal of evolutionary biology. Cryptic species are an especially interesting challenge to study in this context since they lack obvious morphological differentiation that provides clues to adaptive divergence that may drive reproductive isolation. Geographical isolation in refugial areas during glacial cycling is known to be important for generating genetically divergent populations, but its role in the origination of new species is still not fully understood and likely to be situation dependent. We combine analysis of 35,434 single‐nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with environmental niche modeling (ENM) to investigate genomic and ecological divergence in three cryptic species formerly classified as the field vole (Microtus agrestis). The SNPs demonstrate high genomic divergence (pairwise F_ST values of 0.45–0.72) and little evidence of gene flow among the three field vole cryptic species, and we argue that genetic drift may have been a particularly important mechanism for divergence in the group. The ENM reveals three areas as potential glacial refugia for the cryptic species and differing climatic niches, although with spatial overlap between species pairs. This evidence underscores the role that glacial cycling has in promoting genetic differentiation and reproductive isolation by subdivision into disjunct distributions at glacial maxima in areas relatively close to ice sheets. Future investigation of the intrinsic barriers to gene flow between the field vole cryptic species is required to fully assess the mechanisms that contribute to reproductive isolation. In addition, the Portuguese field vole (M. rozianus) shows a high inbreeding coefficient and a restricted climatic niche, and warrants investigation into its conservation status.     

Mutualism influences species distribution predictions for a bromeliad‐breeding anuran under climate change

Ecological niche models, or species distribution models, have been widely used to identify potentially suitable areas for species in future climate change scenarios. However, there are inherent errors to these models due to their inability to evaluate species occurrence influenced by non‐climatic factors. With the intuit to improve the modelling predictions for a bromeliad‐breeding treefrog (Phyllodytes melanomystax, Hylidae), we investigate how the climatic suitability of bromeliads influences the distribution model for the treefrog in the context of baseline and 2050 climate change scenarios. We used point occurrence data on the frog and the bromeliad (Vriesea procera, Bromeliaceae) to generate their predicted distributions based on baseline and 2050 climates. Using a consensus of five algorithms, we compared the accuracy of the models and the geographic predictions for the frog generated from two modelling procedures: (i) a climate‐only model for P. melanomystax and V. procera; and (ii) a climate‐biotic model for P. melanomystax, in which the climatic suitability of the bromeliad was jointly considered with the climatic variables. Both modelling approaches generated strong and similar predictive power for P. melanomystax, yet climate‐biotic modelling generated more concise predictions, particularly for the year 2050. Specifically, because the predicted area of the bromeliad overlaps with the predictions for the treefrog in the baseline climate, both modelling approaches produce reasonable similar predicted areas for the anuran. Alternatively, due to the predicted loss of northern climatically suitable areas for the bromeliad by 2050, only the climate‐biotic models provide evidence that northern populations of P. melanomystax will likely be negatively affected by 2050.