Analysis of rabies in China: transmission dynamics and control

Human rabies is one of the major public-health problems in China. The number of human rabies cases has increased dramatically in the last 15 years, partially due to the poor understanding of the transmission dynamics of rabies and the lack of effective control measures of the disease. In this article, in order to explore effective control and prevention measures we propose a deterministic model to study the transmission dynamics of rabies in China. The model consists of susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered subpopulations of both dogs and humans and describes the spread of rabies among dogs and from infectious dogs to humans. The model simulations agree with the human rabies data reported by the Chinese Ministry of Health. We estimate that the basic reproduction number for the rabies transmission in China and predict that the number of the human rabies is decreasing but may reach another peak around 2030. We also perform some sensitivity analysis of in terms of the model parameters and compare the effects of culling and immunization of dogs. Our study demonstrates that (i) reducing dog birth rate and increasing dog immunization coverage rate are the most effective methods for controlling rabies in China; and (ii) large scale culling of susceptible dogs can be replaced by immunization of them.     

Progression in studies on pathogenesis of rabies virus

Rabies virus causes lethal neurological symptoms in humans and animals. Rabies epidemics have continued to occur throughout the world, despite the fact that rabies can be effectively prevented by vaccination. The development of inexpensive and safe attenuated live vaccines and the establishment of cures are the keys to control rabies. To achieve these objectives, it is important to elucidate mechanism by which rabies virus causes disease. Here, previous studies on the pathogenesis of rabies virus are reviewed and ways to apply previous findings to rabies control are also discussed.     

Costs of Rabies Control: An Economic Calculation Method Applied to Flores Island

Background

Rabies is a zoonotic disease that, in most human cases, is fatal once clinical signs appear. The disease transmits to humans through an animal bite. Dogs are the main vector of rabies in humans on Flores Island, Indonesia, resulting in about 19 human deaths each year. Currently, rabies control measures on Flores Island include mass vaccination and culling of dogs, laboratory diagnostics of suspected rabid dogs, putting imported dogs in quarantine, and pre- and post-exposure treatment (PET) of humans. The objective of this study was to estimate the costs of the applied rabies control measures on Flores Island.

Methodology/principal findings

A deterministic economic model was developed to calculate the costs of the rabies control measures and their individual cost components from 2000 to 2011. The inputs for the economic model were obtained from (i) relevant literature, (ii) available data on Flores Island, and (iii) experts such as responsible policy makers and veterinarians involved in rabies control measures in the past. As a result, the total costs of rabies control measures were estimated to be US$1.12 million (range: US$0.60–1.47 million) per year. The costs of culling roaming dogs were the highest portion, about 39 percent of the total costs, followed by PET (35 percent), mass vaccination (24 percent), pre-exposure treatment (1.4 percent), and others (1.3 percent) (dog-bite investigation, diagnostic of suspected rabid dogs, trace-back investigation of human contact with rabid dogs, and quarantine of imported dogs).

Conclusions/significance

This study demonstrates that rabies has a large economic impact on the government and dog owners. Control of rabies by culling dogs is relatively costly for the dog owners in comparison with other measures. Providing PET for humans is an effective way to prevent rabies, but is costly for government and does not provide a permanent solution to rabies in the future.     

Epidemiology,Impact and Control of Rabies in Nepal: A Systematic Review

Background

Rabies is a vaccine-preventable viral zoonosis belonging to the group of neglected tropical diseases. Exposure to a rabid animal may result in a fatal acute encephalitis if effective post-exposure prophylaxis is not provided. Rabies occurs worldwide, but its burden is disproportionately high in developing countries, including Nepal. We aimed to summarize current knowledge on the epidemiology, impact and control of rabies in Nepal.

Methods

We performed a systematic review of international and national scientific literature and searched grey literature through the World Health Organization Digital Library and the library of the National Zoonoses and Food Hygiene Research Centre, Nepal, and through searching Google and Google Scholar. Further data on animal and human rabies were obtained from the relevant Nepalese government agencies. Finally, we surveyed the archives of a Nepalese daily to obtain qualitative information on rabies in Nepal.

Findings

So far, only little original research has been conducted on the epidemiology and impact of rabies in Nepal. Per year, rabies is reported to kill about 100 livestock and 10–100 humans, while about 1,000 livestock and 35,000 humans are reported to receive rabies post-exposure prophylaxis. However, these estimates are very likely to be serious underestimations of the true rabies burden. Significant progress has been made in the production of cell culture-based anti-rabies vaccine and rabies immunoglobulin, but availability and supply remain a matter of concern, especially in remote areas. Different state and non-state actors have initiated rabies control activities over the years, but efforts typically remained focalized, of short duration and not harmonized. Communication and coordination between veterinary and human health authorities is limited at present, further complicating rabies control in Nepal. Important research gaps include the reporting biases for both human and animal rabies, the ecology of stray dog populations and the true contribution of the sylvatic cycle.

Interpretation

Better data are needed to unravel the true burden of animal and human rabies. More collaboration, both within the country and within the region, is needed to control rabies. To achieve these goals, high level political commitment is essential. We therefore propose to make rabies the model zoonosis for successful control in Nepal.     

Cost-effectiveness of the national dog rabies prevention and control program in Mexico, 1990–2015

BackgroundRabies is a viral zoonosis that imposes a substantial disease and economic burden in many developing countries. Dogs are the primary source of rabies transmission; eliminating dog rabies reduces the risk of exposure in humans significantly. Through mass annual dog rabies vaccination campaigns, the national program of rabies control in Mexico progressively reduced rabies cases in dogs and humans since 1990. In 2019, the World Health Organization validated Mexico for eliminating rabies as a public health problem. Using a governmental perspective, we retrospectively assessed the economic costs, effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness of the national program of rabies control in Mexico, 1990–2015.MethodologyCombining various data sources, including administrative records, national statistics, and scientific literature, we retrospectively compared the current scenario of annual dog vaccination campaigns and post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) with a counterfactual scenario without an annual dog vaccination campaign but including PEP. The counterfactual scenario was estimated using a mathematical model of dog rabies transmission (RabiesEcon). We performed a thorough sensitivity analysis of the main results.Principal findingsResults suggest that in 1990 through 2015, the national dog rabies vaccination program in Mexico prevented about 13,000 human rabies deaths, at an incremental cost (MXN 2015) of $4,700 million (USD 300 million). We estimated an average cost of $360,000 (USD 23,000) per human rabies death averted, $6,500 (USD 410) per additional year-of-life, and $3,000 (USD 190) per dog rabies death averted. Results were robust to several counterfactual scenarios, including high and low rabies transmission scenarios and various assumptions about potential costs without mass dog rabies vaccination campaigns.ConclusionsAnnual dog rabies vaccination campaigns have eliminated the transmission of dog-to-dog rabies and dog-mediated human rabies deaths in Mexico. According to World Health Organization standards, our results show that the national program of rabies control in Mexico has been highly cost-effective.     

Rabies in rodents and lagomorphs in the United States, 1971-1984: increased cases in the woodchuck (Marmota monax) in mid-Atlantic states

A review of surveillance data on animal rabies from the Centers for Disease Control revealed 104 cases of rabies in rodents and lagomorphs for 1971 through 1984 in the United States; 80% of these were reported between 1980 and 1984. Woodchucks (Marmota monax) accounted for 64% of the cases. Most of the cases of rabies in woodchucks were associated with an epizootic of rabies in raccoons (Procyon lotor) in the mid-Atlantic states. In rabies endemic areas, humans exposed to woodchucks should receive rabies postexposure prophylaxis if the animal is not available for testing. The decision to administer postexposure prophylaxis to humans exposed to other rodents and lagomorphs should take into consideration the epidemiology of rabies in the exposing species.     

Epidemiological and numerical simulation of rabies spreading from canines to various human populations in mainland China

BackgroundThe mortality of humans due to rabies in China has been declining in recent years, but it is still a significant public health problem. According to the global framework, China strives to achieve the goal of eliminating human rabies before 2030.MethodsWe reviewed the epidemiology of human deaths from rabies in mainland China from 2004 to 2018. We identified high risk regions, age and occupational groups, and used a continuous deterministic susceptibility-exposure-infection-recovery (SEIR) model with periodic transmission rate to explore seasonal rabies prevalence in different human populations. The SEIR model was used to simulate the data of human deaths from rabies reported by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC). We calculated the relative transmission intensity of rabies from canines to different human groups, and they provided a reliable epidemiological basis for further control and prevention of human rabies.ResultsResults showed that human deaths from rabies exhibited regional differences and seasonal characteristics in mainland China. The annual human death from rabies in different regions, age groups and occupational groups decreased steadily across time. Nevertheless, the decreasing rates and the calculated R₀s of canines of various human groups were different. The transmission intensity of rabies from canines to human populations was the highest in the central regions of China, in people over 45 years old, and in farmers.ConclusionsAlthough the annual cases of human deaths from rabies have decreased steadily since 2007, the proportion of human deaths from rabies varies with region, age, gender, and occupation. Further enhancement of public awareness and immunization status in high-risk population groups and blocking the transmission routes of rabies from canines to humans are necessary. The concept of One Health should be abided and human, animal, and environmental health should be considered simultaneously to achieve the goal of eradicating human rabies before 2030.     

Recombinant monoclonal antibodies for rabies post-exposure prophylaxis

Rabies virus is a prototypical neurotropic virus that causes one of the most dangerous zoonotic diseases in humans. Humanized or fully human monoclonal antibodies (mAb) that neutralize rabies virus would be the basis for powerful post-exposure prophylaxis of rabies in humans, having several significant benefits in comparison with human or equine rabies polyclonal immunoglobulins. The most advanced antibodies should broadly neutralize natural rabies virus isolates, bind with conserved antigenic determinants of the rabies virus glycoprotein, and show high neutralizing potency in assays in vivo. The antibodies should recognize nonoverlapping epitopes if they are used in combination. This review focuses on basic requirements for anti-rabies therapeutic antibodies. The urgency in the search for novel rabies post-exposure prophylaxis and methods of development of anti-rabies human mAb cocktail are discussed. The rabies virus structure and pathways of its penetration into the nervous system are also briefly described.     

Modeling the Geographic Spread of Rabies in China

In order to investigate how the movement of dogs affects the geographically inter-provincial spread of rabies in Mainland China, we propose a multi-patch model to describe the transmission dynamics of rabies between dogs and humans, in which each province is regarded as a patch. In each patch the submodel consists of susceptible, exposed, infectious, and vaccinated subpopulations of both dogs and humans and describes the spread of rabies among dogs and from infectious dogs to humans. The existence of the disease-free equilibrium is discussed, the basic reproduction number is calculated, and the effect of moving rates of dogs between patches on the basic reproduction number is studied. To investigate the rabies virus clades lineages, the two-patch submodel is used to simulate the human rabies data from Guizhou and Guangxi, Hebei and Fujian, and Sichuan and Shaanxi, respectively. It is found that the basic reproduction number of the two-patch model could be larger than one even if the isolated basic reproduction number of each patch is less than one. This indicates that the immigration of dogs may make the disease endemic even if the disease dies out in each isolated patch when there is no immigration. In order to reduce and prevent geographical spread of rabies in China, our results suggest that the management of dog markets and trades needs to be regulated, and transportation of dogs has to be better monitored and under constant surveillance.     

Predictive spatial dynamics and strategic planning for raccoon rabies emergence in Ohio

Rabies is an important public health concern in North America because of recent epidemics of a rabies virus variant associated with raccoons. The costs associated with surveillance, diagnostic testing, and post-exposure treatment of humans exposed to rabies have fostered coordinated efforts to control rabies spread by distributing an oral rabies vaccine to wild raccoons. Authorities have tried to contain westward expansion of the epidemic front of raccoon-associated rabies via a vaccine corridor established in counties of eastern Ohio, western Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. Although sporadic cases of rabies have been identified in Ohio since oral rabies vaccine distribution in 1998, the first evidence of a significant breach in this vaccine corridor was not detected until 2004 in Lake County, Ohio. Herein, we forecast the spatial spread of rabies in Ohio from this breach using a stochastic spatial model that was first developed for exploratory data analysis in Connecticut and next used to successfully hind-cast wave-front dynamics of rabies spread across New York. The projections, based on expansion from the Lake County breach, are strongly affected by the spread of rabies by rare, but unpredictable long-distance translocation of rabid raccoons; rabies may traverse central Ohio at a rate 2.5-fold greater than previously analyzed wildlife epidemics. Using prior estimates of the impact of local heterogeneities on wave-front propagation and of the time lag between surveillance-based detection of an initial rabies case to full-blown epidemic, specific regions within the state are identified for vaccine delivery and expanded surveillance effort.     

Specific activity of a concentrated, chromatography-purified cultured rabies vaccine

Animal experiments and trials on humans have shown that purified and concentrated chromatographic tissue-culture rabies vaccine is safe and essentially more potent than commercial tissue-culture rabies vaccine.     

Twelve Years of Rabies Surveillance in Sri Lanka, 1999–2010

Background

Rabies is endemic in Sri Lanka, but little is known about the temporal and spatial trends of rabies in this country. Knowing these trends may provide insight into past control efforts and serve as the basis for future control measures. In this study, we analyzed distribution of rabies in humans and animals over a period of 12 years in Sri Lanka.

Methods

Accumulated data from 1999 through 2010 compiled by the Department of Rabies Diagnosis and Research, Medical Research Institute (MRI), Colombo, were used in this study.

Results

The yearly mean percentage of rabies-positive sample was 62.4% (47.6–75.9%). Three-fourths of the rabies-positive samples were from the Colombo, Gampaha, and Kalutara districts in Western province, followed by Galle in Southern province. A high percentage of the rabies samples were from dogs (85.2%), followed by cats (7.9%), humans (3.8%), wild animals (2.0%), and livestock (1.1%). Among wild animals, mongooses were the main victims followed by civets. The number of suspect human rabies cases decreased gradually in Sri Lanka, although the number of human samples submitted for laboratory confirmation increased.

Conclusions

The number of rabid dogs has remained relatively unchanged, but the number of suspect human rabies is decreasing gradually in Sri Lanka. These findings indicate successful use of postexposure prophylaxis (PEP) by animal bite victims and increased rabies awareness. PEP is free of charge and is supplied through government hospitals by the Ministry of Health, Sri Lanka. Our survey shows that most positive samples were received from Western and Southern provinces, possibly because of the ease of transporting samples to the laboratory. Submissions of wild animal and livestock samples should be increased by creating more awareness among the public. Better rabies surveillance will require introduction of molecular methods for detection and the establishment of more regional rabies diagnostic laboratories.     

Therapeutic immune clearance of rabies virus from the CNS

The long-held concept that rabies infection is lethal in humans once the causative rabies virus has reached the CNS has been called into question by the recent survival of a number of patients with clinical rabies. Studies in animal models provide insight into why survival from a rabies virus infection that has spread to the CNS is possible and the immune mechanisms involved. In the CNS, both innate mechanisms capable of inhibiting virus replication and the activity of infiltrating rabies virus-specific T and B cells with the capacity to clear the virus are required. Deficiencies in the induction of either aspect of rabies immunity can lead to lethal consequences but may be overcome by novel approaches to active and passive immunization.     

Effect of specific antibodies on active immunity development in those inoculated with an antirabies vaccine

The study of the effect of gamma globulin introduced in different doses (0.5 and 0.25 ml/mg) in combination with Fermi rabies vaccine (observations on humans were made) and with cerebral rabies vaccine inactivated by UV irradiation (in animal experiments) demonstrated that the injection of the higher doses of gamma globulin resulted in lower geometrical mean of antibody titers. Therefore, in combined administration of rabies vaccine and gamma globulin for postexposure rabies prevention it is advisable to reduce the dose of gamma globulin by one-half.     

Trends and spatial distribution of animal bites and vaccination status among victims and the animal population,Uganda: A veterinary surveillance system analysis, 2013–2017

Rabies is a vaccine-preventable fatal zoonotic disease. Uganda, through the veterinary surveillance system at National Animal Disease Diagnostics and Epidemiology Centre (NADDEC), captures animal bites (a proxy for rabies) on a monthly basis from districts. We established trends of incidence of animal bites and corresponding post-exposure prophylactic anti-rabies vaccination in humans (PEP), associated mortality rates in humans, spatial distribution of animal bites, and pets vaccinated during 2013–2017. We reviewed rabies surveillance data at NADDEC from 2013–2017. The surveillance system captures persons reporting bites by a suspected rabid dog/cat/wild animal, human deaths due to suspected rabies, humans vaccinated against rabies, and pets vaccinated. Number of total pets was obtained from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics. We computed incidence of animal bites and corresponding PEP in humans, and analyzed overall trends, 2013–2017. We also examined human mortality rates and spatial distribution of animal bites/rabies and pets vaccinated against rabies. We identified 8,240 persons reporting animal bites in Uganda during 2013–2017; overall incidence of 25 bites/ 100,000population. The incidence significantly decreased from 9.2/100,000 in 2013 to 1.3/100,000 in 2017 (OR = 0.62, p = 0.0046). Of the 8,240 persons with animal bites, 6,799 (82.5%) received PEP, decreasing from 94% in 2013 to 71% in 2017 (OR = 0.65, p<0.001). Among 1441 victims, who reportedly never received PEP, 156 (11%) died. Western region had a higher incidence of animal bites (37/100,000) compared to other regions. Only 5.6% (124,555/2,240,000) of all pets in Uganda were vaccinated. There was a decline in the reporting rate (percentage of annual district veterinary surveillance reports submitted monthly to Commissioner Animal Health by districts) of animal bites. While reported animal bites by districts decreased in Uganda, so did PEP among humans. Very few pets received anti-rabies vaccine. Evaluation of barriers to complete reporting may facilitate interventions to enhance surveillance quality. We recommended improved vaccination of pets against rabies, and immediate administration of exposed humans with PEP.     

Community Health Seeking Behavior for Suspected Human and Animal Rabies Cases,Gomma District,Southwest Ethiopia

Background

Timely presentation to appropriate health service provider of sick animals/humans from zoonotic diseases like rabies is important for early case/outbreak detection and management. However, data on community’s health seeking practice for rabies in Ethiopia is limited. Therefore the objective of this study was to determine community’s health seeking behavior on rabies, Southwest Ethiopia.

Methods

A cross-sectional survey was conducted from January 16-February 14, 2015 to collect data from 808 respondents where the respondents were selected using multistage sampling technique. Data were collected using interviewer administered structured questionnaire by trained epidemiology graduate level students. Data were entered to Epidata version 3.1 and analyzed using SPSS version 20 for windows.

Result

Eight hundred three (99.4%) respondents participated in the study. Out of 28 respondents who reported their family members’ exposure to rabies, 8 of them replied that the exposed family members sought treatment from traditional healers. More than nine in ten respondents perceived that humans and domestic animals with rabies exposure should seek help of which 85% of them suggested modern health care facilities as the preferred management option for the sick humans and domestic animals. However, among those who reported sick domestic animals, near to 72% of them had either slaughtered for human consumption, sold immediately, visited traditional healer, given home care or did nothing for the sick domestic animals.

Conclusion

Majority of the respondents had favorable perception of seeking treatment from modern health care facilities for rabies. However, significant number of them had managed inappropriately for the sick domestic animals from rabies. Hence, raising awareness of the community about management of sick domestic animals from rabies and the need for reporting to both human and animal health service providers is needed.     

Rabies and other lyssaviruses

Since rabies has not been reported in Japan for nearly the past 50 years, it has been relegated to the status of a forgotten infectious disease in this country. However,in the neighboring Asian countries, Africa, America, the number fo rabies cases had not decrease but on the contrary, seen an increasing trend. In Russia and the former Soviet Union countries (CIS countries), the number of information. Between 30,000 approximately 20,000 fatal cases of rabies in both humans and animals had been reported yearly butit was thought that the number might run up to hundred of thousands.japan, Taiwan, UK, Australia and New Zealand are rabies-free countries and should be considered the exception rather than the norm. Due to the long Lull in which rabies has not occurred in Japan,people tend to forget that the disease can infect all mammals including humans, with a mortality rate of 100% after manifestation of debilitating nervous symptoms and that is one of the most dangerous zoonotic viral diseases on earth.     

Exhaustive Exercise Does Not Affect Humoral Immunity and Protection after Rabies Vaccination in a Mouse Model

Rabies is one of the most dangerous and widespread zoonosis and is characterized by severe neurological signs and a high case-mortality rate of nearly 100%. Vaccination is the most effective way to prevent rabies in humans and animals. In this study, the relationship between exhaustive exercise and the humoral immune response after immunization with inactivated rabies vaccine was investigated in a mouse model with one-time exhaustive exercise. It was found that compared with the mice with no exercise after vaccination, no significant differences were found in those with exhaustive exercise after vaccination on body-weight changes, virus-neutralizing antibody (VNA) titers, antibody subtypes and survivor ratio after lethal rabies virus (RABV) challenge. This study indicated that exhaustive exercise does not reduce the effects of the rabies inactivated vaccine.     

Transmission Dynamics and Prospects for the Elimination of Canine Rabies

Rabies has been eliminated from domestic dog populations in Western Europe and North America, but continues to kill many thousands of people throughout Africa and Asia every year. A quantitative understanding of transmission dynamics in domestic dog populations provides critical information to assess whether global elimination of canine rabies is possible. We report extensive observations of individual rabid animals in Tanzania and generate a uniquely detailed analysis of transmission biology, which explains important epidemiological features, including the level of variation in epidemic trajectories. We found that the basic reproductive number for rabies, R₀, is very low in our study area in rural Africa (~1.2) and throughout its historic global range (<2). This finding provides strong support for the feasibility of controlling endemic canine rabies by vaccination, even near wildlife areas with large wild carnivore populations. However, we show that rapid turnover of domestic dog populations has been a major obstacle to successful control in developing countries, thus regular pulse vaccinations will be required to maintain population-level immunity between campaigns. Nonetheless our analyses suggest that with sustained, international commitment, global elimination of rabies from domestic dog populations, the most dangerous vector to humans, is a realistic goal.     

Focus: Zoonotic Disease: Rabies in Costa Rica – Next Steps Towards Controlling Bat-Borne Rabies After its Elimination in Dogs

Rabies is an acute, progressive encephalitis caused by a lyssavirus, with the highest case fatality of any conventional infectious disease. More than 17 different lyssaviruses have been described, but rabies virus is the most widely distributed and important member of the genus. Globally, tens of thousands of human fatalities still occur each year. Although all mammals are susceptible, most human fatalities are caused by the bites of rabid dogs, within lesser developed countries. A global plan envisions the elimination of human rabies cases caused via dogs by the year 2030. The combination of prophylaxis of exposed humans and mass vaccination of dogs is an essential strategy for such success. Regionally, the Americas are well on the way to meet this goal. As one example of achievement, Costa Rica, a small country within Central America, reported the last autochthonous case of human rabies transmitted by a dog at the end of the 1970s. Today, rabies virus transmitted by the common vampire bat, Desmodus rotundus, as well as other wildlife, remains a major concern for humans, livestock, and other animals throughout the region. This review summarizes the historical occurrence of dog rabies and its elimination in Costa Rica, describes the current occurrence of the disease with a particular focus upon affected livestock, discusses the ecology of the vampire bat as the primary reservoir relevant to management, details the clinical characteristics of recent human rabies cases, and provides suggestions for resolution of global challenges posed by this zoonosis within a One Health context.