The Wilhelmine E. Key 1999 Invitational lecture. Predicting the evolution of human influenza A

We studied the evolution of the HA1 domain of the H3 hemagglutinin gene from human influenza virus type A. The phylogeny of these genes showed a single dominant lineage persisting over time. We tested the hypothesis that the progenitors of this single evolutionarily successful lineage were viruses carrying mutations at codons at which prior mutations had helped the virus to avoid human immune surveillance. We found evidence that eighteen hemagglutinin codons appeared to have been under positive selection to change the amino acid they encoded in the past. Retrospective tests show that viral lineages undergoing the greatest number of mutations in the positively selected codons were the progenitors of future H3 lineages in nine of eleven recent influenza seasons. Codons under positive selection were associated with antibody combining sites A or B or the sialic acid receptor binding site. However, not all codons in these sites had predictive value. Monitoring new H3 isolates for additional changes in positively selected codons might help identify the most fit extant viral strains that arise during antigenic drift.     

Reconstruction of the Evolutionary Dynamics of A(H3N2) Influenza Viruses Circulating in Italy from 2004 to 2012

Background

Influenza A viruses are characterised by their rapid evolution, and the appearance of point mutations in the viral hemagglutinin (HA) domain causes seasonal epidemics. The A(H3N2) virus has higher mutation rate than the A(H1N1) virus. The aim of this study was to reconstruct the evolutionary dynamics of the A(H3N2) viruses circulating in Italy between 2004 and 2012 in the light of the forces driving viral evolution.

Methods

Phylodinamic analyses were made using a Bayesian method, and codon-specific positive selection acting on the HA coding sequence was evaluated.

Results

Global and local phylogenetic analyses showed that the Italian strains collected between 2004 and 2012 grouped into five significant Italian clades that included viral sequences circulating in different epidemic seasons. The time of the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) of the tree root was between May and December 2003. The tMRCA estimates of the major clades suggest that the origin of a new viral strain precedes the effective circulation of the strain in the Italian population by 6–31 months, thus supporting a central role of global migration in seeding the epidemics in Italy. The study of selection pressure showed that four codons were under positive selection, three of which were located in antigenic sites. Analysis of population dynamics showed the alternation of periods of exponential growth followed by a decrease in the effective number of infections corresponding to epidemic and inter-epidemic seasons.

Conclusions

Our analyses suggest that a complex interaction between the immune status of the population, migrations, and a few selective sweeps drive the influenza A(H3N2) virus evolution. Our findings suggest the possibility of the year-round survival of local strains even in temperate zones, a hypothesis that warrants further investigation.     

Clonal Interference in the Evolution of Influenza

The seasonal influenza A virus undergoes rapid evolution to escape human immune response. Adaptive changes occur primarily in antigenic epitopes, the antibody-binding domains of the viral hemagglutinin. This process involves recurrent selective sweeps, in which clusters of simultaneous nucleotide fixations in the hemagglutinin coding sequence are observed about every 4 years. Here, we show that influenza A (H3N2) evolves by strong clonal interference. This mode of evolution is a red queen race between viral strains with different beneficial mutations. Clonal interference explains and quantifies the observed sweep pattern: we find an average of at least one strongly beneficial amino acid substitution per year, and a given selective sweep has three to four driving mutations on average. The inference of selection and clonal interference is based on frequency time series of single-nucleotide polymorphisms, which are obtained from a sample of influenza genome sequences over 39 years. Our results imply that mode and speed of influenza evolution are governed not only by positive selection within, but also by background selection outside antigenic epitopes: immune adaptation and conservation of other viral functions interfere with each other. Hence, adapting viral proteins are predicted to be particularly brittle. We conclude that a quantitative understanding of influenza’s evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics must be based on all genomic domains and functions coupled by clonal interference.     

Recent H3N2 Influenza Virus Clinical Isolates Rapidly Acquire Hemagglutinin or Neuraminidase Mutations When Propagated for Antigenic Analyses

Prior to serological testing, influenza viruses are typically propagated in eggs or cell culture. Recent human H3N2 strains bind to cells with low avidity. Here, we isolated nine primary H3N2 viral isolates from respiratory secretions of children. Upon propagation in vitro, five of these isolates acquired hemagglutinin or neuraminidase mutations that increased virus binding to cell surfaces. These mutations can potentially confound serological assays commonly used to identify antigenically novel influenza viruses.     

The Evolutionary Dynamics of Human Influenza B Virus

Despite their close phylogenetic relationship, type A and B influenza viruses exhibit major epidemiological differences in humans, with the latter both less common and less often associated with severe disease. However, it is unclear what processes determine the evolutionary dynamics of influenza B virus, and how influenza viruses A and B interact at the evolutionary scale. To address these questions we inferred the phylogenetic history of human influenza B virus using complete genome sequences for which the date (day) of isolation was available. By comparing the phylogenetic patterns of all eight viral segments we determined the occurrence of segment reassortment over a 30-year sampling period. An analysis of rates of nucleotide substitution and selection pressures revealed sporadic occurrences of adaptive evolution, most notably in the viral hemagglutinin and compatible with the action of antigenic drift, yet lower rates of overall and nonsynonymous nucleotide substitution compared to influenza A virus. Overall, these results led us to propose a model in which evolutionary changes within and between the antigenically distinct 'Yam88' and 'Vic87' lineages of influenza B virus are the result of changes in herd immunity, with reassortment continuously generating novel genetic variation. Additionally, we suggest that the interaction with influenza A virus may be central in shaping the evolutionary dynamics of influenza B virus, facilitating the shift of dominance between the Vic87 and the Yam88 lineages.     

Evolutionary history and phylodynamics of influenza A and B neuraminidase (NA) genes inferred from large-scale sequence analyses

Background

Influenza neuraminidase (NA) is an important surface glycoprotein and plays a vital role in viral replication and drug development. The NA is found in influenza A and B viruses, with nine subtypes classified in influenza A. The complete knowledge of influenza NA evolutionary history and phylodynamics, although critical for the prevention and control of influenza epidemics and pandemics, remains lacking.

Methodology/Principal findings

Evolutionary and phylogenetic analyses of influenza NA sequences using Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian MCMC methods demonstrated that the divergence of influenza viruses into types A and B occurred earlier than the divergence of influenza A NA subtypes. Twenty-three lineages were identified within influenza A, two lineages were classified within influenza B, and most lineages were specific to host, subtype or geographical location. Interestingly, evolutionary rates vary not only among lineages but also among branches within lineages. The estimated tMRCAs of influenza lineages suggest that the viruses of different lineages emerge several months or even years before their initial detection. The d _N /d _S ratios ranged from 0.062 to 0.313 for influenza A lineages, and 0.257 to 0.259 for influenza B lineages. Structural analyses revealed that all positively selected sites are at the surface of the NA protein, with a number of sites found to be important for host antibody and drug binding.

Conclusions/Significance

The divergence into influenza type A and B from a putative ancestral NA was followed by the divergence of type A into nine NA subtypes, of which 23 lineages subsequently diverged. This study provides a better understanding of influenza NA lineages and their evolutionary dynamics, which may facilitate early detection of newly emerging influenza viruses and thus improve influenza surveillance.     

Influenza A virus—a model for viral antigen presentation to cytotoxic T lymphocytes

Human influenza A virus is characterized by its high degree of variability and by its ability to cause frequent epidemics of disease. Most of the variation occurs in the two surface glycoproteins of the virus, against which protective antibodies are directed. In contrast, the strong MHC class I-restricted CTL response to infection with virus is predominantly specific for internal viral proteins which are relatively well conserved, and is cross-reactive between different strains of influenza A virus. However, the natural evolution of influenza viruses is largely driven by selection with antibody, with no firm evidence of selection by CTL. In normal individuals influenza virus produces an acute, localized infection, and this in part may reflect an inability to escape the CTL response.     

Improvement of influenza A/Fujian/411/02 (H3N2) virus growth in embryonated chicken eggs by balancing the hemagglutinin and neuraminidase activities, using reverse genetics

The H3N2 influenza A/Fujian/411/02-like virus strains that circulated during the 2003-2004 influenza season caused influenza epidemics. Most of the A/Fujian/411/02 virus lineages did not replicate well in embryonated chicken eggs and had to be isolated originally by cell culture. The molecular basis for the poor replication of A/Fujian/411/02 virus was examined in this study by the reverse genetics technology. Two antigenically related strains that replicated well in embryonated chicken eggs, A/Sendai-H/F4962/02 and A/Wyoming/03/03, were compared with the prototype A/Fujian/411/02 virus. A/Sendai differed from A/Fujian by three amino acids in the neuraminidase (NA), whereas A/Wyoming differed from A/Fujian by five amino acids in the hemagglutinin (HA). The HA and NA segments of these three viruses were reassorted with cold-adapted A/Ann Arbor/6/60, the master donor virus for the live attenuated type A influenza vaccines (FluMist). The HA and NA residues differed between these three H3N2 viruses evaluated for their impact on virus replication in MDCK cells and in embryonated chicken eggs. It was determined that replication of A/Fujian/411/02 in eggs could be improved by either changing minimum of two HA residues (G186V and V226I) to increase the HA receptor-binding ability or by changing a minimum of two NA residues (E119Q and Q136K) to lower the NA enzymatic activity. Alternatively, recombinant A/Fujian/411/02 virus could be adapted to grow in eggs by two amino acid substitutions in the HA molecule (H183L and V226A), which also resulted in the increased HA receptor-binding activity. Thus, the balance between the HA and NA activities is critical for influenza virus replication in a different host system. The HA or NA changes that increased A/Fujian/411/02 virus replication in embryonated chicken eggs were found to have no significant impact on antigenicity of these recombinant viruses. This study demonstrated that the reverse genetics technology could be used to improve the manufacture of the influenza vaccines.     

Pomegranate (Punica granatum) purified polyphenol extract inhibits influenza virus and has a synergistic effect with oseltamivir

Influenza epidemics cause numerous deaths and millions of hospitalizations each year. Because of the alarming emergence of resistance to anti-influenza drugs, there is a need to identify new naturally occurring antiviral molecules. We tested the hypothesis that pomegranate polyphenol extract (PPE) has anti-influenza properties. Using real time PCR, plaque assay, and TCID 50% hemagglutination assay, we have shown that PPE suppresses replication of influenza A virus in MDCK cells. PPE inhibits agglutination of chicken red blood cells (cRBC) by influenza virus and is virucidal. The single-cycle growth conditions indicated that independent of the virucidal effect PPE also inhibits viral RNA replication. PPE did not alter virus ribonucleoprotein (RNP) entry into nucleus or translocation of virus RNP from nucleus to cytoplasm in MDCK cells. We evaluated four major Polyphenols in PPE (ellagic acid, caffeic acid, luteolin, and punicalagin) and demonstrated that punicalagin is the effective, anti-influenza component of PPE. Punicalagin blocked replication of the virus RNA, inhibited agglutination of chicken RBC's by the virus and had virucidal effects. Furthermore, the combination of PPE and oseltamivir synergistically increased the anti-influenza effect of oseltamivir. In conclusion, PPE inhibited the replication of human influenza A/Hong Kong (H3N2) in vitro. Pomegranate extracts should be further studied for therapeutic and prophylactic potential especially for influenza epidemics and pandemics.     

Proteomics search of influenza A viruses for adaptive mutations to human hosts

Evaluation of: Miotto O, Heiny AT, Albrecht R et al. Complete-proteome mapping of human influenza A adaptive mutations: implications for human transmissibility of zoonotic strains. PLoS ONE 5(2), e9025 (2010).

The emergence of an influenza pandemic is of great concern globally. It is, therefore, necessary to have a better understanding of the adaptation of influenza A viruses to humans. The mutation patterns affecting host tropism may provide information on the mechanisms and determinants of the host barrier. The work by Miotto et al. describes a catalog of mutations observed specifically in human influenza A viruses by analyzing almost 100,000 influenza A virus protein sequences. These sites may be important for host tropism and characteristic mutations of human influenza viruses may be required for efficient human-to-human transmission. The catalog can be used for genetic surveillance of zoonotic strains of the influenza A virus to determine their pandemic potential, as well as for basic research on the influenza A virus.     

Characteristics of incomplete reproduction cycle of ts-mutant of influenza virus A at non-permissive temperature

Incomplete reproduction cycle of influenza virus A/134/17/57, the attenuation donor being used for preparation of recombinant vaccine strains, hs been analyzed with the use of molecular biology methods. Virus A/134/17/57 with two mutations in P3, NP and M genes remains capable of synthesis of viral polypeptides that are devoid of ability to be inserted into cellular plasma membrane, when the virus is propagated in MDCK culture at non-permissive temperature. The process is preceded by defects in the process of formation of RNP structures connected, evidently, with deficient synthesis of viral RNA due to mutations in the gene coding for P3 protein.     

Use of Hangeul Twitter to Track and Predict Human Influenza Infection

Influenza epidemics arise through the accumulation of viral genetic changes. The emergence of new virus strains coincides with a higher level of influenza-like illness (ILI), which is seen as a peak of a normal season. Monitoring the spread of an epidemic influenza in populations is a difficult and important task. Twitter is a free social networking service whose messages can improve the accuracy of forecasting models by providing early warnings of influenza outbreaks. In this study, we have examined the use of information embedded in the Hangeul Twitter stream to detect rapidly evolving public awareness or concern with respect to influenza transmission and developed regression models that can track levels of actual disease activity and predict influenza epidemics in the real world. Our prediction model using a delay mode provides not only a real-time assessment of the current influenza epidemic activity but also a significant improvement in prediction performance at the initial phase of ILI peak when prediction is of most importance.     

Evidence of recombination among early-vaccination era measles virus strains

Background  

The advent of live-attenuated vaccines against measles virus during the 1960'ies changed the circulation dynamics of the virus. Earlier the virus was indigenous to countries worldwide, but now it is mediated by a limited number of evolutionary lineages causing sporadic outbreaks/epidemics of measles or circulating in geographically restricted endemic areas of Africa, Asia and Europe. We expect that the evolutionary dynamics of measles virus has changed from a situation where a variety of genomic variants co-circulates in an epidemic with relatively high probabilities of co-infection of the individual to a situation where a co-infection with strains from evolutionary different lineages is unlikely.     

Evolution of influenza A virus PB2 genes: implications for evolution of the ribonucleoprotein complex and origin of human influenza A virus

Phylogenetic analysis of 20 influenza A virus PB2 genes showed that PB2 genes have evolved into the following four major lineages: (i) equine/Prague/56 (EQPR56); (ii and iii) two distinct avian PB2 lineages, one containing FPV/34 and H13 gull virus strains and the other containing North American avian and recent equine strains; and (iv) human virus strains joined with classic swine virus strains (i.e., H1N1 swine virus strains related to swine/Iowa/15/30). The human virus lineage showed the greatest divergence from its root relative to other lineages. The estimated nucleotide evolutionary rate for the human PB2 lineage was 1.82 x 10(-3) changes per nucleotide per year, which is within the range of published estimates for NP and NS genes of human influenza A viruses. At the amino acid level, PB2s of human viruses have accumulated 34 amino acid changes over the past 55 years. In contrast, the avian PB2 lineages showed much less evolution, e.g., recent avian PB2s showed as few as three amino acid changes relative to the avian root. The completion of evolutionary analyses of the PB1, PB2, PA and NP genes of the ribonucleoprotein (RNP) complex permits comparison of evolutionary pathways. Different patterns of evolution among the RNP genes indicate that the genes of the complex are not coevolving as a unit. Evolution of the PB1 and PB2 genes is less correlated with host-specific factors, and their proteins appear to be evolving more slowly than NP and PA. This suggests that protein functional constraints are limiting the evolutionary divergence of PB1 and PB2 genes. The parallel host-specific evolutionary pathways of the NP and PA genes suggest that these proteins are coevolving in response to host-specific factors. PB2s of human influenza A viruses share a common ancestor with classic swine virus PB2s, and the pattern of evolution suggests that the ancestor was an avian virus PB2. This same pattern of evolution appears in the other genes of the RNP complex. Antigenic studies of HA and NA proteins and sequence comparisons of NS and M genes also suggest a close ancestry for these genes in human and classic swine viruses. From our review of the evolutionary patterns of influenza A virus genes, we propose the following hypothesis: the common ancestor to current strains of human and classic swine influenza viruses predated the 1918 human pandemic virus and was recently derived from the avian host reservoir.     

The beginning and ending of a respiratory viral pandemic-lessons from the Spanish flu

The COVID-19 pandemic goes into its third year and the world population is longing for an end to the pandemic. Computer simulations of the future development of the pandemic have wide error margins and predictions on the evolution of new viral variants of SARS-CoV-2 are uncertain. It is thus tempting to look into the development of historical viral respiratory pandemics for insight into the dynamic of pandemics. The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 caused by the influenza virus H1N1 can here serve as a potential model case. Epidemiological observations on the shift of influenza mortality from very young and old subjects to high mortality in young adults delimitate the pandemic phase of the Spanish flu from 1918 to 1920. The identification and sequencing of the Spanish flu agent allowed following the H1N1 influenza virus after the acute pandemic phase. During the 1920s H1N1 influenza virus epidemics with substantial mortality were still observed. As late as 1951, H1N1 strains of high virulence evolved but remained geographically limited. Until 1957, the H1N1 virus evolved by accumulation of mutations (‘antigenic drift’) and some intratypic reassortment. H1N1 viruses were then replaced by the pandemic H2N2 influenza virus from 1957, which was in 1968 replaced by the pandemic H3N2 influenza virus; both viruses were descendants from the Spanish flu agent but showed the exchange of entire gene segments (‘antigenic shift’). In 1977, H1N1 reappeared from an unknown source but caused only mild disease. However, H1N1 achieved again circulation in the human population and is now together with the H3N2 influenza virus an agent of seasonal influenza winter epidemics.     

Inferring the Clonal Structure of Viral Populations from Time Series Sequencing

RNA virus populations will undergo processes of mutation and selection resulting in a mixed population of viral particles. High throughput sequencing of a viral population subsequently contains a mixed signal of the underlying clones. We would like to identify the underlying evolutionary structures. We utilize two sources of information to attempt this; within segment linkage information, and mutation prevalence. We demonstrate that clone haplotypes, their prevalence, and maximum parsimony reticulate evolutionary structures can be identified, although the solutions may not be unique, even for complete sets of information. This is applied to a chain of influenza infection, where we infer evolutionary structures, including reassortment, and demonstrate some of the difficulties of interpretation that arise from deep sequencing due to artifacts such as template switching during PCR amplification.     

Features of mutated changes of genomic RNA of cold-adapted and hr-variants of influenza group A virus, detected by RNA:RNA hybridization]

The presence of mutations in the majority of the genes of cold-adapted strains A/Leningrad/134/17/57 (H2N2), A/Leningrad/134/47/57 (H2N2) and A/PR/8/59/1 (H1N1) of influenza A virus has been demonstrated by the RNA-RNA hybridization with the subsequent electrophoresis of double-stranded RNA in 7.5% polyacrylamide gel. The strains were cultivated 17, 47 and 59 passages in the chicken embryos at 25 degrees C. In the genomes of variants passaged in chicken embryos at optimal temperature of incubation 36 degrees C (hr-variants) the used technique permits identification of a single mutant gene. The obtained data suppose the attenuation of cold-adapted vaccine strains of influenza A virus and their high genetic stability to be a result of selection of the variants obtaining multiple mutations in the genome during passaging of the virions at cold temperature. The attenuation of hr-variants is defined by 1-2 mutations (first of all in HA-gene) that makes understandable their inability to serve as donors for recombinant live influenza vaccines construction.     

Changes in the phenotypic properties of highly pathogenic influenza A virus of H5N1 subtype induced by N186I and N186T point mutations in hemagglutinin

The change in the phenotypic properties resulting from amino acid substitutions in the hemagglutinin (HA) molecule is an important link in the evolutionary process of influenza viruses. It is believed to be one of the mechanisms of the emergence of highly pathogenic strains of influenza A viruses, including subtype H5N1. Using the site-directed mutagenesis, we introduced mutations in the HA gene of the H5N1 subtype of influenza A virus. The obtained virus variants were analyzed and compared using the following parameters: optimal pH of conformational transition (according to the results of the hemolysis test), specificity of receptor binding (using a set of synthetic analogues of cell surface sialooligosaccharides), thermoresistance (heat-dependent reduction of hemagglutinin activity), virulence in mice, and the kinetics of replication in chicken embryos, and reproductive activity at different temperatures (RCT-based). N186I and N186T mutations in the HA protein increased the virulence of the original virus in mice. These mutations accelerated virus replication in the early stages of infection in chicken embryos and increased the level of replication at late stages. In addition, compared to the original virus, the mutant variants replicated more efficiently at lower temperatures. The obtained data clearly prove the effect of amino acid substitutions at the 186 position of HA on phenotypic properties of the H5N1 subtype of influenza A.     

Analysis of <Emphasis Type="Italic">N</Emphasis>-glycans in embryonated chicken egg chorioallantoic and amniotic cells responsible for binding and adaptation of human and avian influenza viruses

The initial step essential in influenza virus infection is specific binding of viral hemagglutinin to host cell-surface glycan receptors. Influenza A virus specificity for the host is mediated by viral envelope hemagglutinin, that binds to receptors containing glycans with terminal sialic acids. Human viruses preferentially bind to α2→6 linked sialic acids on receptors of host cells, whereas avian viruses are specific for the α2→3 linkage on the target cells. Human influenza virus isolates more efficiently infect amniotic membrane (AM) cells than chorioallantoic membrane (CAM) cells. N-glycans were isolated from AM and CAM cells of 10-day-old chicken embryonated eggs and their structures were analyzed by multi-dimensional HPLC mapping and MALDI-TOF-MS techniques. Terminal N-acetylneuraminic acid contents in the two cell types were similar. However, molar percents of α2→3 linkage preferentially bound by avian influenza virus were 27.2 in CAM cells and 15.4 in AM cells, whereas those of α2→6 linkage favored by human influenza virus were 8.3 (CAM) and 14.2 (AM). Molar percents of sulfated glycans, recognized by human influenza virus, in CAM and AM cells were 3.8 and 12.7, respectively. These results have revealed structures and molar percents of N-glycans in CAM and AM cells important in determining human and avian influenza virus infection and viral adaptation.