A measurement error model for time-series studies of air pollution and mortality

One barrier to interpreting the observational evidence concerning the adverse health effects of air pollution for public policy purposes is the measurement error inherent in estimates of exposure based on ambient pollutant monitors. Exposure assessment studies have shown that data from monitors at central sites may not adequately represent personal exposure. Thus, the exposure error resulting from using centrally measured data as a surrogate for personal exposure can potentially lead to a bias in estimates of the health effects of air pollution. This paper develops a multi-stage Poisson regression model for evaluating the effects of exposure measurement error on estimates of effects of particulate air pollution on mortality in time-series studies. To implement the model, we have used five validation data sets on personal exposure to PM10. Our goal is to combine data on the associations between ambient concentrations of particulate matter and mortality for a specific location, with the validation data on the association between ambient and personal concentrations of particulate matter at the locations where data have been collected. We use these data in a model to estimate the relative risk of mortality associated with estimated personal-exposure concentrations and make a comparison with the risk of mortality estimated with measurements of ambient concentration alone. We apply this method to data comprising daily mortality counts, ambient concentrations of PM10measured at a central site, and temperature for Baltimore, Maryland from 1987 to 1994. We have selected our home city of Baltimore to illustrate the method; the measurement error correction model is general and can be applied to other appropriate locations.Our approach uses a combination of: (1) a generalized additive model with log link and Poisson error for the mortality-personal-exposure association; (2) a multi-stage linear model to estimate the variability across the five validation data sets in the personal-ambient-exposure association; (3) data augmentation methods to address the uncertainty resulting from the missing personal exposure time series in Baltimore. In the Poisson regression model, we account for smooth seasonal and annual trends in mortality using smoothing splines. Taking into account the heterogeneity across locations in the personal-ambient-exposure relationship, we quantify the degree to which the exposure measurement error biases the results toward the null hypothesis of no effect, and estimate the loss of precision in the estimated health effects due to indirectly estimating personal exposures from ambient measurements.     

A Bayesian model averaging approach for estimating the relative risk of mortality associated with heat waves in 105 U.S. cities

Estimating the risks heat waves pose to human health is a critical part of assessing the future impact of climate change. In this article, we propose a flexible class of time series models to estimate the relative risk of mortality associated with heat waves and conduct Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to account for the multiplicity of potential models. Applying these methods to data from 105 U.S. cities for the period 1987-2005, we identify those cities having a high posterior probability of increased mortality risk during heat waves, examine the heterogeneity of the posterior distributions of mortality risk across cities, assess sensitivity of the results to the selection of prior distributions, and compare our BMA results to a model selection approach. Our results show that no single model best predicts risk across the majority of cities, and that for some cities heat-wave risk estimation is sensitive to model choice. Although model averaging leads to posterior distributions with increased variance as compared to statistical inference conditional on a model obtained through model selection, we find that the posterior mean of heat wave mortality risk is robust to accounting for model uncertainty over a broad class of models.     

Mortality in elderly patients admitted for respite care.

OBJECTIVE--To determine whether admitting elderly patients to hospital to give temporary relief to their carers is associated with increased mortality. DESIGN--Prospective multicentre study comparing the mortality of patients admitted on a one off or rotational basis with that experienced while they were awaiting admission. SETTING--A wide range of urban and rural district general, geriatric or long stay, and general practitioner hospitals. PATIENTS--474 Patients aged 70 or over who had 601 admissions. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Death. RESULTS--16 (3.4%) Of the 474 patients (2.7% of all 601 admissions) died while in hospital during an average stay of 15.7 days whereas 23 (4.9%) patients died while awaiting admission (average waiting time was 34.2 days). The 16 deaths in hospital and the 23 deaths during the longer waiting period correspond to death rates of 19.9 and 12.5 per 10,000 person days respectively. The difference between these of 7.4 is not statistically significant (95% confidence interval -3.6 to 18.3). The estimated relative risk of dying in hospital is 1.59 but the 95% confidence interval is wide (0.84 to 3.01). CONCLUSION--Although the death rates are slightly higher in those admitted to hospital for relief care than in those awaiting admission, the difference was not significant, and the death rate in both groups was reassuringly small.     

Air quality modeling for health risk assessment of ambient PM10, PM2.5 and SO2 in Iran

In this study, we have estimated the number of total mortality (T-mortality), cardiovascular morbidity (CV-mortality), respiratory mortality (R-mortality), hospital admissions due to cardiovascular diseases (HA-CVD), respiratory diseases (HA-RD), chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD) and acute myocardial infarction (AMI) due to exposure to particulate matter less than 10 µm (PM₁₀), 2.5 µm (PM_2.5) and sulfur dioxide (SO₂) in western Iran in 2016. The World Health Organization (WHO) method was used to assess the mortality and morbidity among the exposed people. The results showed that about 3.9% CM (95% CI: 2.9–7.8%), 3.9% HA-RD (95% CI: 2.4–7.8%) and 4.4% HA-CVD (95% CI: 3.0–6.8%) for ambient PM₁₀ and about 7.3% TM (95% CI: 4.2–9.7%), 12.1% CM (95% CI: 3.5–14.6%) and 3.0% RM (95% CI: 0–6.3%) for PM_2.5 are respectively attributed to concentrations exceeding 10 µg/m³. Furthermore, 3.2% HA-COPD (95% CI: 0–5.04%) and 4.2% AMI (95% CI: 1.6–4.3%) can be attributed to SO₂ concentrations greater than 10 µg/m³, respectively. To reduce the adverse health effect of PM, health advices provided by health authorities should be given to general population especially vulnerable people such as people with chronic lung and heart pathologies, elderly and children during the dusty days.     

The lag-effect pattern in the relationship of particulate air pollution to daily mortality in Seoul,Korea

To assess differences in the lag-effect pattern in the relationship between particulate matter less than 10 microm in aerodynamic diameter (PM(10)) and cause-specific mortality in Seoul, Korea, from January 1995 to December 1999, we performed a time-series analysis. We used a generalized additive Poisson regression model to control for time trends, temperature, humidity, air pressure, and the day of the week. The PM(10) effect was estimated on the basis of the time-series models using the 24-h means and the quadratic distributed-lag models using a cumulative 6-day effect. One interquartile range increase in the 6-day cumulative mean of PM(10) (43.12 microg/m(3)) was associated with an increase in non-accidental deaths [3.7%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.1, 5.4], respiratory disease (13.9%, 95% CI: 6.8, 21.5), cardiovascular disease (4.4%, 95% CI: -1.0, 9.0), and cerebrovascular disease (6.3%, 95% CI: 2.3, 10.5). We found the following patterns in the disease-specific lag-effect window: respiratory mortality was more affected by air pollution level on the day of death, whereas cardiovascular deaths were more affected by the previous day's air pollution level. Cerebrovascular deaths were simultaneously associated with the air pollution levels of the same day and the previous day. The patterns in the lag effect from the distributed-lag models were similar to those of a series of time-series models with 24-h means. These results contribute to our understanding of how exposure to air pollution causes adverse health effects.     

The impact of heat,cold, and heat waves on hospital admissions in eight cities in Korea

Although the impact of temperature on mortality is well documented, relatively fewer studies have evaluated the associations of temperature with morbidity outcomes such as hospital admissions, and most studies were conducted in North America or Europe. We evaluated weather and hospital admissions including specific causes (allergic disease, asthma, selected respiratory disease, and cardiovascular disease) in eight major cities in Korea from 2003 to 2008. We also explored potential effect modification by individual characteristics such as sex and age. We used hierarchical modeling to first estimate city-specific associations between heat, cold, or heat waves and hospitalizations, and then estimated overall effects. Stratified analyses were performed by cause of hospitalization, sex, and age (0–14, 15–64, 65–74, and ≥75 years). Cardiovascular hospitalizations were significantly associated with high temperature, whereas hospitalizations for allergic disease, asthma, and selected respiratory disease were significantly associated with low temperature. The overall heat effect for cardiovascular hospitalization was a 4.5 % (95 % confidence interval 0.7, 8.5 %) increase in risk comparing hospitalizations at 25 to 15 °C. For cold effect, the overall increase in risk of hospitalizations comparing 2 with 15 °C was 50.5 (13.7, 99.2 %), 43.6 (8.9, 89.5 %), and 53.6 % (9.8, 114.9 %) for allergic disease, asthma, and selected respiratory disease, respectively. We did not find statistically significant effects of heat waves compared with nonheat wave days. Our results suggest susceptible populations such as women and younger persons. Our findings provide suggestive evidence that both high and low ambient temperatures are associated with the risk of hospital admissions, particularly in women or younger person, in Korea.     

Effects of particulate air pollution on cardiovascular health: a population health risk assessment

Particulate matter (PM) air pollution is increasingly recognized as an important and modifiable risk factor for adverse health outcomes including cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, there are still gaps regarding large population risk assessment. Results from the nationwide Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) were used along with air quality monitoring measurements to implement a systematic evaluation of PM-related CVD risks at the national and regional scales. CVD status and individual-level risk factors were collected from more than 500,000 BRFSS respondents across 2,231 contiguous U.S. counties for 2007 and 2009. Chronic exposures to PM pollutants were estimated with spatial modeling from measurement data. CVD outcomes attributable to PM pollutants were assessed by mixed-effects logistic regression and latent class regression (LCR), with adjustment for multicausality. There were positive associations between CVD and PM after accounting for competing risk factors: the multivariable-adjusted odds for the multiplicity of CVD outcomes increased by 1.32 (95% confidence interval: 1.23-1.43) and 1.15 (1.07-1.22) times per 10 μg/m(3) increase in PM(2.5) and PM(10) respectively in the LCR analyses. After controlling for spatial confounding, there were moderate estimated effects of PM exposure on multiple cardiovascular manifestations. These results suggest that chronic exposures to ambient particulates are important environmental risk factors for cardiovascular morbidity.     

Estimating the acute health effects of coarse particulate matter accounting for exposure measurement error

In air pollution epidemiology, there is a growing interest in estimating the health effects of coarse particulate matter (PM) with aerodynamic diameter between 2.5 and 10 μm. Coarse PM concentrations can exhibit considerable spatial heterogeneity because the particles travel shorter distances and do not remain suspended in the atmosphere for an extended period of time. In this paper, we develop a modeling approach for estimating the short-term effects of air pollution in time series analysis when the ambient concentrations vary spatially within the study region. Specifically, our approach quantifies the error in the exposure variable by characterizing, on any given day, the disagreement in ambient concentrations measured across monitoring stations. This is accomplished by viewing monitor-level measurements as error-prone repeated measurements of the unobserved population average exposure. Inference is carried out in a Bayesian framework to fully account for uncertainty in the estimation of model parameters. Finally, by using different exposure indicators, we investigate the sensitivity of the association between coarse PM and daily hospital admissions based on a recent national multisite time series analysis. Among Medicare enrollees from 59 US counties between the period 1999 and 2005, we find a consistent positive association between coarse PM and same-day admission for cardiovascular diseases.     

Trends in schistosomiasis-related mortality in Brazil, 2000–2011

Schistosomiasis is an important public health problem, with high morbidity and mortality in endemic countries. We analysed the epidemiological characteristics and time trends of schistosomiasis-related mortality in Brazil. We performed a nationwide study based on official mortality data obtained from the Brazilian Mortality Information System. We included all deaths in Brazil between 2000 and 2011, in which schistosomiasis was mentioned on the death certificate as an underlying or associated cause of death (multiple causes of death). We calculated crude and age-adjusted mortality rates (per 100,000 inhabitants), and proportional mortality rates. Trends over time were assessed using joinpoint regression models. Over the 12-year study period, 12,491,280 deaths were recorded in Brazil. Schistosomiasis was mentioned in 8,756 deaths, including in 6,319 (72.2%) as an underlying cause and in 2,437 (27.8%) as an associated cause. The average annual age-adjusted mortality rate was 0.49 deaths/100,000 inhabitants (95% confidence interval: 0.46–0.52) and proportional mortality rate was 0.070% (95% confidence interval: 0.069–0.072). Males (0.53 deaths/100,000 inhabitants), those aged ⩾70 years (3.41 deaths/100,000 inhabitants), those of brown race/colour (0.44 deaths/100,000 inhabitants), and residents in the Northeast region of Brazil (1.19 deaths/100,000 inhabitants) had the highest schistosomiasis-related death rates. Age-adjusted mortality rates showed a significant decrease at a national level (Annual Percent Change: −2.8%; 95% confidence interval: −4.2 to −2.4) during the studied period. We observed decreasing mortality rates in the Northeast (Annual Percent Change: −2.5%; 95% confidence interval: −4.2 to −0.8), Southeast (Annual Percent Change: −2.2%; 95% confidence interval: −3.6 to −0.9), and Central-West (Annual Percent Change: −7.9%; 95% confidence interval: −11.3 to −4.3) regions, while the rates remained stable in the North and South regions. Despite the reduced mortality, schistosomiasis is still a neglected cause of death in Brazil, with considerable regional differences. Sustainable control measures should focus on increased coverage, and intensified and tailored control measures, to prevent the occurrence of severe forms of schistosomiasis and associated deaths.     

The relative risks and etiologic fractions of different causes of death and disease attributable to alcohol,tobacco and illicit drug use in Canada

BACKGROUND: In 1996 the number of deaths and admissions to hospital in Canada that could be attributed to the use of alcohol, tobacco and illicit drugs were estimated from 1992 data. In this paper we update these estimates to the year 1995. METHODS: On the basis of pooled estimates of relative risk, etiologic fractions were calculated by age, sex and province for 90 causes of disease or death attributable to alcohol, tobacco or illicit drugs; the etiologic fractions were then applied to national mortality and morbidity data for 1995 to estimate the number of deaths and admissions to hospital attributable to substance abuse. RESULTS: In 1995, 6507 deaths and 82,014 admissions to hospital were attributed to alcohol, 34,728 deaths and 194,072 admissions to hospital were attributed to tobacco, and 805 deaths and 6940 admissions to hospital were due to illicit drugs. INTERPRETATION: The use and misuse of alcohol, tobacco and illicit drugs accounted for 20.0% of deaths, 22.2% of years of potential life lost and 9.4% of admissions to hospital in Canada in 1995.     

Causes,temporal trends,and the effects of urbanization on admissions of wild raptors to rehabilitation centers in England and Wales

Data from wildlife rehabilitation centers (WRCs) can provide on‐the‐ground records of causes of raptor morbidity and mortality, allowing threat patterns to be explored throughout time and space. We provide an overview of native raptor admissions to four WRCs in England and Wales, quantifying the main causes of morbidity and mortality, trends over time, and associations between threats and urbanization between 2001 and 2019. Throughout the study period, 14 raptor species were admitted totalling 3305 admission records. The Common Buzzard (Buteo buteo; 31%) and Tawny Owl (Strix aluco; 29%) were most numerous. Relative to the proportion of breeding individuals in Britain and Ireland, Peregrine Falcons (Falco peregrinus), Little Owls (Athene noctua), and Western Barn Owls (Tyto alba) were over‐represented in the admissions data by 103%, 73%, and 69%, respectively. Contrastingly Northern Long‐eared Owls (Asio otus), Western Marsh Harriers (Circus aeruginosus), and Merlin (Falco columbarius) were under‐represented by 187%, 163%, and 126%, respectively. Across all species, vehicle collisions were the most frequent anthropogenic admission cause (22%), and orphaned young birds (10%) were most frequent natural cause. Mortality rate was highest for infection/parasite admissions (90%), whereas orphaned birds experienced lowest mortality rates (16%). For one WRC, there was a decline in admissions over the study period. Red Kite (Milvus milvus) admissions increased over time, whereas Common Buzzard and Common Kestrel admissions declined. There were significant declines in the relative proportion of persecution and metabolic admissions and an increase in orphaned birds. Urban areas were positively associated with persecution, building collisions, and unknown trauma admissions, whereas vehicle collisions were associated with more rural areas. Many threats persist for raptors in England and Wales, however, have not changed substantially over the past two decades. Threats associated with urban areas, such as building collisions, may increase over time in line with human population growth and subsequent urban expansion.     

Fatal peptic ulcer complications and the use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs,aspirin, and corticosteroids.

Although non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs are known to cause peptic ulcer and its complications, controversy exists about the number of deaths from ulcer which are attributable to their use. A case-control study was therefore performed to determine whether prior use of non-steroidal and other anti-inflammatory compounds was associated with an increased case fatality rate from complications of peptic ulcer. Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs were used by 39% of a series of 80 patients who had died from peptic ulcer complications and by 37% of 160 controls who were survivors matched for sex, age, ulcer site, and nature of complication (odds ratio 1.1; 95% confidence interval 0.6 to 2.1). Similarly, the rates of prior use of aspirin by cases and controls were almost identical (odds ratio 1.2; 95% confidence interval 0.5 to 1.9). Thus neither nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs nor aspirin were associated with increased case fatality rates from peptic ulcer complications. In contrast, corticosteroids were associated with an increased mortality (odds ratio 4.2; 95% confidence interval 0.9 to 25.6). Although this increase in the estimated relative risk was not statistically significant, a review of the case records indicated that most deaths in steroid users were due to serious sepsis, indicating that there might be a causal association between use of the drugs and the mode of death.     

Spatial association between speciated fine particles and mortality

Particulate matter (PM) has been linked to a range of serious cardiovascular and respiratory health problems, including premature mortality. The main objective of our research is to quantify uncertainties about the impacts of fine PM exposure on mortality. We develop a multivariate spatial regression model for the estimation of the risk of mortality associated with fine PM and its components across all counties in the conterminous United States. We characterize different sources of uncertainty in the data and model the spatial structure of the mortality data and the speciated fine PM. We consider a flexible Bayesian hierarchical model for a space-time series of counts (mortality) by constructing a likelihood-based version of a generalized Poisson regression model that combines methods for point-level misaligned data and change of support regression. Our results seem to suggest an increase by a factor of two in the risk of mortality due to fine particles with respect to coarse particles. Our study also shows that in the Western United States, the nitrate and crustal components of the speciated fine PM seem to have more impact on mortality than the other components. On the other hand, in the Eastern United States, sulfate and ammonium explain most of the fine PM effect.     

Mortality among oral contraceptive users: 20 year follow up of women in a cohort study.

OBJECTIVE--To see whether the use of oral contraceptives influences mortality. DESIGN--Non-randomised cohort study of 17,032 women followed up on an annual basis for an average of nearly 16 years. SETTING--17 Family planning clinics in England and Scotland. SUBJECTS--Women recruited during 1968-74. At the time of recruitment each woman was aged 25-39, married, a white British subject, willing to participate, and either a current user of oral contraceptives or a current user of a diaphragm or intrauterine device (without previous exposure to the pill). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Overall mortality and cause specific mortality. RESULTS--238 Deaths occurred during the follow up period. The main analyses concerned women entering the study while using either oral contraceptives or a diaphragm or intrauterine device. The overall relative risk of death in the oral contraceptive users was 0.9 (95% confidence interval 0.7 to 1.2). Though the numbers of deaths were small in most individual disease categories, the trends observed were generally consistent with findings in other reports. Thus the relative risk of death in the oral contraceptive users was 4.9 (95% confidence interval 0.7 to 230) for cancer of the cervix, 3.3 (95% confidence interval 0.9 to 17.9) for ischaemic heart disease, and 0.4 (95% confidence interval 0.1 to 1.2) for ovarian cancer. There was a linear trend in the death rates from cervical cancer and ovarian cancer (in opposite directions) with total duration of oral contraceptive use. Death rates from breast cancer (relative risk 0.9; 95% confidence interval 0.5 to 1.4) and suicide and probable suicide (relative risk 1.1; 95% confidence interval 0.3 to 3.6) were much the same in the two contraceptive groups. In 1981 the relative risk of death in oral contraceptive users from circulatory diseases as a group was reported to be 4.2 (95% confidence interval 2.3 to 7.7) in the Royal College of General Practitioners oral contraception study. The corresponding relative risk in this study was only 1.5 (95% confidence interval 0.7 to 3.0). CONCLUSIONS--These findings contain no significant evidence of any overall effect of oral contraceptive use on mortality. None the less, only small numbers of deaths occurred during the study period and a significant adverse (or beneficial) overall effect might emerge in the future. Interestingly, the mortality from circulatory disease associated with oral contraceptive use was substantially less than that found in the Royal College of General Practitioners study.     

Assessing survival in a multi-population system: a case study on bat populations

In long-lived animals, adult survival is among the most important determinants of population dynamics. Although it may show considerable variation both in time and among populations and sites, a single survival estimate per species is often used in comparative evolutionary studies or in conservation management to identify threatened populations. We estimated adult survival of the isabelline serotine bat Eptesicus isabellinus using capture–recapture data collected on six maternity colonies scattered over a large area (distance 8–103 km) during periods varying from 8 to 26 years. We modelled temporal and inter-colony variations as random effects in a Bayesian framework and estimated mean annual adult survival of females on two scales and a single survival value across all colonies. On a coarse scale, we grouped colonies according to two different habitat types and investigated the effect on survival. A difference in adult survival was detected between the two habitat types [posterior mean of annual survival probability 0.71; 95% credible interval (CI) 0.51–0.86 vs. 0.60; 0.28–0.89], but it was not statistically supported. On a fine scale, survival of the six colonies ranged between 0.58 (95% CI 0.23–0.92) and 0.81 (0.73–0.88), with variation between only two colonies being statistically supported. Overall survival was 0.72 (95% CI 0.57–0.93) with important inter-colony variability (on a logit scale 0.98; 95% CI 0.00–8.16). Survival varied temporally in a random fashion across colonies. Our results show that inference based solely on single colonies should be treated with caution and that a representative unbiased estimate of survival for any species should ideally be based on multiple populations.     

Incidence and Risk Factors for Neonatal Tetanus in Admissions to Kilifi County Hospital,Kenya

Background

Neonatal Tetanus (NT) is a preventable cause of mortality and neurological sequelae that occurs at higher incidence in resource-poor countries, presumably because of low maternal immunisation rates and unhygienic cord care practices. We aimed to determine changes in the incidence of NT, characterize and investigate the associated risk factors and mortality in a prospective cohort study including all admissions over a 15-year period at a County hospital on the Kenyan coast, a region with relatively high historical NT rates within Kenya.

Methods

We assessed all neonatal admissions to Kilifi County Hospital in Kenya (1999–2013) and identified cases of NT (standard clinical case definition) admitted during this time. Poisson regression was used to examine change in incidence of NT using accurate denominator data from an area of active demographic surveillance. Logistic regression was used to investigate the risk factors for NT and factors associated with mortality in NT amongst neonatal admissions. A subset of sera from mothers (n = 61) and neonates (n = 47) were tested for anti-tetanus antibodies.

Results

There were 191 NT admissions, of whom 187 (98%) were home deliveries. Incidence of NT declined significantly (Incidence Rate Ratio: 0.85 (95% Confidence interval 0.81–0.89), P<0.001) but the case fatality (62%) did not change over the study period (P = 0.536). Younger infant age at admission (P = 0.001) was the only independent predictor of mortality. Compared to neonatal hospital admittee controls, the proportion of home births was higher among the cases. Sera tested for antitetanus antibodies showed most mothers (50/61, 82%) had undetectable levels of antitetanus antibodies, and most (8/9, 89%) mothers with detectable antibodies had a neonate without protective levels.

Conclusions

Incidence of NT in Kilifi County has significantly reduced, with reductions following immunisation campaigns. Our results suggest immunisation efforts are effective if sustained and efforts should continue to expand coverage.     

The effects of the 2009 dust storm on emergency admissions to a hospital in Brisbane, Australia

In September 2009 an enormous dust storm swept across eastern Australia. Dust is potentially hazardous to health as it interferes with breathing, and previous dust storms have been linked to increased risks of asthma and even death. We examined whether the 2009 Australian dust storm changed the volume or characteristics of emergency admissions to hospital. We used an observational study design, using time series analyses to examine changes in the number of admissions, and case-only analyses to examine changes in the characteristics of admissions. The admission data were from the Prince Charles Hospital, Brisbane, between 1 January 2009 and 31 October 2009. There was a 39% increase in emergency admissions associated with the storm (95% confidence interval: 5, 81%), which lasted for just 1 day. The health effects of the storm could not be detected using particulate matter levels. We found no significant change in the characteristics of admissions during the storm; specifically, there was no increase in respiratory admissions. The dust storm had a short-lived impact on emergency hospital admissions. This may be because the public took effective avoidance measures, or because the dust was simply not toxic, being composed mainly of soil. Emergency departments should be prepared for a short-term increase in admissions during dust storms.     

Promoted Relationship of Cardiovascular Morbidity with Air Pollutants in a Typical Chinese Urban Area

BackgroundA large number of studies about effects of air pollutants on cardiovascular mortality have been conducted; however, those investigating association between air pollutants and cardiovascular morbidity are limited, especially in developing countries.MethodsA time-series analysis on the short-term association between outdoor air pollutants including particulate matter (PM) with diameters of 10 µm or less (PM₁₀), sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and cardiovascular morbidity was conducted in Tianjin, China based on 4 years of daily data (2008–2011). The morbidity data were stratified by sex and age. The effects of air pollutants during the warm season and the cool season were also analyzed separately.ResultsEach increase in PM₁₀, SO₂, and NO₂ by increments of 10 µg/m³ in a 2-day average concentration was associated with increases in the cardiovascular morbidity of 0.19% with 95 percent confidence interval (95% CI) of 0.08–0.31, 0.43% with 95% CI of 0.03–0.84, and 0.52% with 95% CI of −0.09–1.13, respectively. The effects of air pollutants were more evident in the cool season than those in the warm season, females and the elderly were more vulnerable to outdoor air pollution.ConclusionsAll estimated coefficients of PM₁₀, SO₂ and NO₂ are positive but only the effect of SO₂ implied statistical significance at the 5% level. Moreover, season, sex and age might modify health effects of outdoor air pollutants. This work may bring inspirations for formulating local air pollutant standards and social policy regarding cardiovascular health of residents.     

Estimating Mortality Derived from Indoor Exposure to Particles of Outdoor Origin

Following an extensive review of the literature, we further analyze the published data to examine the health effects of indoor exposure to particulate matter (PM) of outdoor origin. We obtained data on all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality per 10 μg/m³ increase in outdoor PM₁₀ or PM_2.5; the infiltration factors for buildings; and estimated time spent outdoors by individuals in the United States, Europe, China, and globally. These data were combined log-linear exposure–response model to estimate the all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality of exposure to indoor PM pollution of outdoor origin. Indoor PM pollution of outdoor origin is a cause of considerable mortality, accounting for 81% to 89% of the total increase in mortality associated with exposure to outdoor PM pollution for the studied regions. The findings suggest that enhancing the capacity of buildings to protect occupants against exposure to outdoor PM pollution has significant potential to improve public health outcomes.     

Influenza Morbidity and Mortality in Elderly Patients Receiving Statins: A Cohort Study

Background

Statins possess immunomodulatory properties and have been proposed for reducing morbidity during an influenza pandemic. We sought to evaluate the effect of statins on hospitalizations and deaths related to seasonal influenza outbreaks.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We conducted a population-based cohort study over 10 influenza seasons (1996 to 2006) using linked administrative databases in Ontario, Canada. We identified all adults older than 65 years who had received an influenza vaccination prior to the start of influenza season and distinguished those also prescribed statins (23%) from those not also prescribed statins (77%). Propensity-based matching, which accounted for each individual''s likelihood of receiving a statin, yielded a final cohort of 2,240,638 patients, exactly half of whom received statins. Statins were associated with small protective effects against pneumonia hospitalization (odds ratio [OR] 0.92; 95% CI 0.89–0.95), 30-day pneumonia mortality (0.84; 95% CI 0.77–0.91), and all-cause mortality (0.87; 95% CI 0.84–0.89). These protective effects attenuated substantially after multivariate adjustment and when we excluded multiple observations for each individual, declined over time, differed across propensity score quintiles and risk groups, and were unchanged during post-influenza season periods. The main limitations of this study were the observational study design, the non-specific outcomes, and the lack of information on medications while hospitalized.

Conclusions/Significance

Statin use is associated with a statistically significant but minimal protective effect against influenza morbidity that can easily be attributed to residual confounding. Public health officials and clinicians should focus on other measures to reduce morbidity and mortality from the next influenza pandemic.