Reproductive change in Zimbabwe and Kenya: the role of the proximate determinants in recent fertility trends

This study examines trends in proximate determinants of fertility in Zimbabwe and Kenya. Findings from the four Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in these countries show that the dramatic fall in fertility in these countries is consistent with the underlying trends in the most important proximate determinants of fertility. In Zimbabwe, contraceptive use far exceeds other proximate determinants in influencing fertility levels and trends. The results show that the fertility inhibiting effects of contraception are more important than the effects of postpartum infecundability, marriage patterns, or sterility. The results also show that contraceptive use has its greatest suppressing effects in the middle and younger age groups. However, in Kenya, the dominant fertility inhibiting effect is postpartum infecundability, with contraception coming in second.     

Fertility transition in Bangladesh: understanding the role of the proximate determinants

Bangladesh has been passing through a crucial phase of fertility transition. The level of fertility declined dramatically during the early 1990s without any remarkable improvement in socioeconomic and health status, and then remained constant at a high level of 3.3, despite the increased use of contraception. Such fertility transition can be traced to variations in one or more of the proximate or direct determinants of fertility. This paper critically analyses the fertility levels in Bangladesh with a view to exploring the possible explanations of fertility decline in the 1990s and then its stabilization. The main focus of the study is to examine the role of the major proximate determinants of fertility in bringing about the change in fertility level in Bangladesh. The data for the study come from a series of nationally representative surveys over the period of 1975 to 1999-2000. The analysis indicates that fertility has temporarily ceased to decline in recent years due to the 'tempo' effect of high past fertility, but in general a declining trend in fertility is underway. The analysis suggests that the fall in fertility is consistent with the underlying trends in most important proximate determinants of fertility. In recent years contraception has emerged as the highest fertility reducing factor in Bangladesh and its effect is greatest in middle and older age groups. Although until the early 1990s postpartum lactational infecundability was the most important and strongest fertility reducing factor in Bangladesh, in recent years its fertility inhibiting effect has gradually decreasing owing to the declining trend in the lactational infecundability period. The analysis reveals that although the fertility reducing effect of the marriage pattern is increasing, its effect is offset by the declining trend in the lactational infecundability period. A review of these two variables suggests that their effect cannot be raised much for prevailing socioeconomic and cultural reasons, and any future reduction in fertility in Bangladesh may be largely dependent on increased use of effective birth control methods.     

Fertility on the US-Mexico border

Using Bongaarts' model, the relative importance of the proximate determinants of fertility is explored in five populations on the US-Mexico border. For the groups closest to natural fertility (the two Mexican groups), lactation, use of contraception, and marriage all were moderately important in terms of their direct effect on fertility. For the group with lowest fertility (Anglo-American), contraceptive use was an important factor inhibiting fertility; marriage was important but not nearly as important as contraceptive use. For the two US Mexican-American groups, contraceptive use was an important intermediate variable, not as important as for Anglo-Americans, but more important than it was for the two populations in Mexico. The proportion married was a moderately important factor for the Mexican-American groups. For these five populations the principal differences in fertility rates result from substantial differences in the use of effective contraception. Bongaarts' model proved very useful as an analytical framework in this study.     

Proximate determinants of fertility in the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal: an anthropological case study

The analytical model of Bongaarts and Potter is employed to compare the proximate determinants of fertility among 3 populations in Nepal's Kathmandu valley. 3 sub-groups are studied: high caste (Brahmin and Chetri) urban residents, high caste urban fringe residents, and low caste untouchables (Sarki). Both survey and anthropological methods are employed. According to the analytical model, the transition in fertility follows 4 phases. The changes in fertility levels from Phase 1 to Phase 4 generally indicate that the transition from natural to controlled fertility is characterized by declines in the proportions of women married and the duration of postpartum infecundability, and a substantial increase in the prevalence and effectiveness of contraceptive practices. The results of this study show that Nepal as a whole is entrenched in Phase 1 of the fertility transition. However, data from the 3 populations reported here clearly indicate that each has begun to experience a demographic transition to different degrees. The Sarkis in this study fall between Phases 2 and 3, as indicated by the total fertility rate (TFR). The rural high castes most closely approximate a population in Phase 3, while urban high castes included in this study are approaching Phase 4. Each of the 3 populations is characterized by a decline in the proportion of women married when compared to all of Nepal. It is also apparent that the relative use-effectiveness of contraceptive methods currently employed is high. Gains in the reduction of fertility, then, will have to be made from increasing and retaining the number of acceptors and in reducing the desired family size of those at reproductive risk.     

Determinants of fertility in Nepal: applications of an aggregate model

Bongaarts aggregate model of the proximate determinants of fertility is applied to data from the 1976 National Fertility Survey in Nepal. Breastfeeding is shown to be the most important limiting factor, resulting in a reduction of about 6 children per woman. Decline in the duration of breastfeeding by 1/4 would increase fertility by 1 additional child per woman. The temporary separation of spouses due to migration is conjectured to be the 2nd most important fertility inhibiting factor, not explicitly accounted for in the standard model. Results are presented for the 3 major ecological regions, urban-rural residence and educational attainment of women. High nuptiality and virtually no contraceptive use in Nepal produce age-specific fertility rates very close to a natural fertility pattern. Total average interval between births is 36 months; about 18 months are solely due to breastfeeding, the remaining months to combined effects of gestation, waiting time to conception, intrauterine mortality and post-partum infecundability. As urbanization increases and pace of modernization becomes more pronounced, the duration of breastfeeding is susceptible to decline.     

Determinants of current contraceptive use among Ghanaian women at the highest risk of pregnancy.

This study uses data from the Ghana Demographic and Health Survey (GDHS) of 1988 to examine factors determining the continued low levels of contraceptive use in Ghana. The women currently using efficient contraception are those who have sexual intercourse regularly, who discuss family planning with their partner, whose husbands approve of the use of family planning, and who live in the northern sector of the country. The finding that husband's approval is an important determinant of efficient contraceptive use has significant policy implications for Ghana and other African countries, to motivate both husbands and wives to share fertility control responsibilities.     

Proximate determinants of fertility in Nigeria

Data from the 1981-82 Nigeria Fertility Survey (NFS) are used to identify the key proximate determinants of fertility in Nigeria. The patterns of their individual and collective effects are analyzed in a search for possible sources of fertility change. Exposure to the risk of childbearing through first marriage is found to be the most important proximate determinant of Nigerian fertility. Subsequent to marriage, fertility is determined mainly by breastfeeding and postpartum sexual abstinence. Where fertility shows significant socioeconomic variations, there are equally identifiable patterns of the impact of the proximate determinants which explain these differentials to a large extent. On a national scale, the observed patterns of the impact of the measured proximate determinants do not appear to suggest that Nigerian fertility is soon to experience a large decline.     

Assessing the reproductive behavior of on- and off-reservation American Indian females: characteristics of two groups in Montana

Only limited fertility and general reproductive health data exist on American Indians. Using data from the 1987 Montana American Indian Health Risk Assessment, we found that the fertility of American Indians in Great Falls and on the Blackfeet Reservation was similar to blacks in the U.S. and relatively high when compared with fertility of whites in the United States. The influence of the direct determinants of fertility (nuptiality, contraceptive use, and lactation) was very different for the populations examined in this study. Great Falls American Indians and the U.S. black population were similar regarding age at first sexual intercourse (very young), breastfeeding (low prevalence and short duration), planning status of pregnancies (high unplanned), and contraceptive use (only moderate use). In contrast, Blackfeet women on the reservation and the U.S. white population married relatively late, had very high contraceptive use, used effective methods of contraception, and had moderately high levels of breastfeeding. However, Blackfeet fertility was much higher than that of whites. Three interrelated reasons are suggested as possible explanations. Blackfeet couples either wanted high fertility, were relatively poor users of family planning methods, or used less effective methods until they had exceeded their desired family size after which time they turned to sterilization. These finds raise numerous questions concerning the social and economic factors that may account for these group similarities and differences. Further studies with much larger data sets are needed to address these issues adequately.     

Explaining the Role of Proximate Determinants on Fertility Decline among Poor and Non-Poor in Asian Countries

ObjectivesWe examined the overall contributions of the poor and non-poor in fertility decline across the Asian countries. Further, we analyzed the direct and indirect factors that determine the reproductive behaviour of two distinct population sub-groups.DesignData from several new rounds of DHS surveys are available over the past few years. The DHS provides cross-nationally comparable and useful data on fertility, family planning, maternal and child health along with the other information. Six selected Asian countries namely: Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Nepal, Philippines, and Vietnam are considered for the purpose of the study. Three rounds of DHS surveys for each country (except Vietnam) are considered in the present study.MethodsEconomic status is measured by computing a “wealth index”, i.e. a composite indicator constructed by aggregating data on asset ownership and housing characteristics using principal components analysis (PCA). Computed household wealth index has been broken into three equal parts (33.3 percent each) and the lowest and the highest 33.3 percent is considered as poor and non-poor respectively. The Bongaarts model was employed to quantify the contribution of each of the proximate determinants of fertility among poor and non-poor women.ResultsFertility reduction across all population subgroups is now an established fact despite the diversity in the level of socio-economic development in Asian countries. It is clear from the analysis that fertility has declined irrespective of economic status at varying degrees within and across the countries which can be attributed to the increasing level of contraceptive use especially among poor women. Over the period of time changing marriage pattern and induced abortion are playing an important role in reducing fertility among poor women.ConclusionsFertility decline among majority of the poor women across the Asian countries is accompanied by high prevalence of contraceptive use followed by changing marriage pattern and induced abortion.     

Examining the geographical heterogeneity associated with risk of mistimed and unwanted pregnancy in Ghana

After a decade of fertility decline, Ghana's fertility and the level of unmet need for contraception stalled in mid-transition in the late 1990s. Although the literature acknowledges this, the geographical patterns in unmet need have not been adequately documented. Spatial analysis of unmet need can reveal differences in usage and provision of contraceptive commodities, thereby pointing to geographical areas where contraceptive programmes should be strengthened. This study examines the geographical variation of the risk of mistimed and unwanted pregnancies between rural communities and also between urban communities of the three ecological zones of Ghana. The study also investigates if geographical differences in the risks of mistimed and unwanted pregnancies changed during the period when unmet need stalled at the national level. A multilevel regression model was applied to pooled data from the 1998 and 2003 Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys to examine the determinants of the risk of unintended pregnancies, while controlling for clustering of outcomes within communities. The results show that between the two surveys, there was no significant change in the levels of risk of mistimed and unwanted pregnancy. However, geographical heterogeneity in the risk of mistimed and unwanted pregnancy was observed, after controlling for relevant predictors. This showed concentration of mistimed pregnancies in some rural communities relative to others, and variation in the risk of unwanted pregnancies between urban communities. The results give a clear indication that bridging the inequality gap in contraceptive use requires programmes that are area-specific.     

Rapid fertility decline in Iran: analysis of intermediate variables

The remarkable decline in fertility in Iran, which saw the total fertility rate fall from 7 children per woman in 1986 to 2 in 2000, has received only limited analysis in the demographic literature. Using the 2000 Iran Demographic and Health Survey and Bongaarts' age-specific fertility model, this paper examines the role of the major proximate determinants of fertility in bringing about the rapid decrease in fertility in Iran. The analysis indicates that contraception had the largest effect on fertility, accounting for 61% of the reduction in fertility from its theoretical maximum. The fertility-inhibiting effect of marriage patterns accounted for an additional 31% reduction, and was most important among the young. Further analysis of contraceptive behaviour suggests that the current period fertility rate of 2.0 children per woman is an outcome of a synchronization of delaying and spacing of births among younger women with stopping of childbearing among women in the middle and late reproductive ages. The policy implications of the results are discussed.     

Determinants of fertility decline in China, 1981: analysis of intermediate variables.

This study examines the proximate determinants of fertility in China by making use of the data collected by the One-per-Thousand Sample Fertility Survey of 1982. The results indicate that the most important inhibitor of potential fertility is deliberate control. Its contribution to fertility change has been far greater than all other proximate determinants. The marital structure of the population is also an important factor, while lactational infecundability and induced abortion are relatively unimportant. Comparative results by using data from the In-depth Fertility Survey conducted in Shanghai Municipality, Hebei and Shaanxi Provinces in April 1985 agree well in the ranking of the four intermediate factors. The findings point to successful family planning program and government population policies, which propelled the fertility transition to a substantial degree. Further research needs and policy implications of the results of the study are discussed.     

Determinants of rural and urban fertility differentials in Nigeria

Whatever proximate variables are examined, their differential effects on rural and urban fertility are small. This indicates that no major disturbance has taken place in urban or rural reproductive norms. However, two possible reasons for the converging pattern of rural and urban fertility in Nigeria are identified. One is that urban mothers in the first half of the childbearing age range have higher fertility than their rural counterparts. The other is that breast-feeding and post-partum abstinence, which are the major determinants of marital fertility, exert a more depressing influence on rural than urban fertility.     

Determinants of fertility decline in China, 1981: Analysis of intermediate variables

Abstract

This study examines the proximate determinants of fertility in China by making use of the data collected by the One‐per‐Thousand Sample Fertility Survey of 1982. The results indicate that the most important inhibitor of potential fertility is deliberate control. Its contribution to fertility change has been far greater than all other proximate determinants. The marital structure of the population is also an important factor, while lactational infecundability and induced abortion are relatively unimportant. Comparative results by using data from the In‐depth Fertility Survey conducted in Shanghai Municipality, Hebei and Shaanxi Provinces in April 1985 agree well in the ranking of the four intermediate factors. The findings point to successful family planning program and government population policies, which propelled the fertility transition to a substantial degree. Further research needs and policy implications of the results of the study are discussed.     

The estimation of natural fertility: A micro approach

Abstract

The estimation of natural fertility has heretofore been confined to population aggregates. This paper presents a technique for estimating natural fertility at the household level for developing countries with some practice of deliberate family size limitation and applies it to micro‐level WFS data for Sri Lanka and Colombia for females aged 35–44 in intact marriages. The technique is based on a proximate determinants equation estimated as part of a model that takes account of the interdependence between use of fertility control and natural fertility. To evaluate the results, the mean and household level estimates of natural fertility for each country are first compared with actual fertility; then mean estimates for each country are compared with macro‐level estimates of natural fertility based on three other methods. Finally, the implications of the analysis for the proximate sources of intercountry and intracountry variations in natural fertility are examined. The results suggest that the present approach yields plausible quantitative estimates of natural fertility and reasonable analytical results.     

Determinants of contraceptive use and method choice in Turkey

In this study, the determinants of contraceptive use and method choice are examined based on various variables, classified as individual, cultural, fertility and contextual. The data used came from the 1993 Turkish Demographic and Health Survey. The main finding is that there exists a positive association between the educational level of both spouses and the use of contraceptive methods in Turkey. After all individual, cultural, fertility and contextual variables are controlled, a woman's education is a stronger predictor of method use and method choice than that of her husband. Increasing the educational level of women may be the most effective means of advancing family planning acceptance and increasing the demand for contraceptive services in Turkey. The study also shows that, to a great extent, contraceptive use and choice of modern method depend on the sex of a couple's living children, implying some preference for sons, although generally women prefer to have children of both sexes.     

Effect of nuptiality, contraception and breast-feeding on fertility in Bangladesh

The effects of marriage, contraception, and post-partum lactational infecundability on fertility in Bangladesh are assessed by applying Bongaarts' formula to survey data for the period 1975-1985. Marriage is universal and age at marriage is low. Breastfeeding is prolonged and has a pronounced effect on fertility. The fertility-reducing effect of contraception increased over the period through increased use of modern methods. The total fertility rate (TFR) declined by 24% from 1975 to 1985. This study shows that the 3 major proximate determinants cannot account completely for variation in national fertility levels.     

Barriers to Sustained Use of Contraception in Nepal: Quality of Care,Socioeconomic Status,and Method-Related Factors

Owing to previously limited data availability, low contraceptive prevalence, and predominance of permanent method use in Nepal, there have been few studies of contraceptive-use dynamics. The aim of this article is to examine contraceptive use dynamics in Nepal in light of the country's ongoing fertility transition and change in contraceptive method-mix. Drawing on the 2003 Contraceptive Acceptance and Use Patterns Survey of Nepal and the quality-of-care framework, a proportional hazards model is used to explore contraceptive discontinuation of injections and pills. Results show that source of method from non-government services, high level of information given, one-to-one counseling, satisfaction with services, and shorter travel time to source are associated with lower odds of discontinuation. Despite the experience of side effects, women in Nepal are highly motivated to regulate their fertility. Results suggest detailed information given to users can have significant influence on continuation of methods rather than merely providing information on alternative methods and group counseling.     

Trends of Modern Contraceptive Use among Young Married Women Based on the 2000, 2005, and 2011 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys: A Multivariate Decomposition Analysis

Introduction

Accessing family planning can reduce a significant proportion of maternal, infant, and childhood deaths. In Ethiopia, use of modern contraceptive methods is low but it is increasing. This study aimed to analyze the trends and determinants of changes in modern contraceptive use over time among young married women in Ethiopia.

Methods

The study used data from the three Demographic Health Surveys conducted in Ethiopia, in 2000, 2005, and 2011. Young married women age 15–24 years with sample sizes of 2,157 in 2000, 1,904 in 2005, and 2,146 in 2011 were included. Logit-based decomposition analysis technique was used for analysis of factors contributing to the recent changes. STATA 12 was employed for data management and analyses. All calculations presented in this paper were weighted for the sampling probabilities and non-response. Complex sampling procedures were also considered during testing of statistical significance.

Results

Among young married women, modern contraceptive prevalence increased from 6% in 2000 to 16% in 2005 and to 36% in 2011. The decomposition analysis indicated that 34% of the overall change in modern contraceptive use was due to difference in women’s characteristics. Changes in the composition of young women’s characteristics according to age, educational status, religion, couple concordance on family size, and fertility preference were the major sources of this increase. Two-thirds of the increase in modern contraceptive use was due to difference in coefficients. Most importantly, the increase was due to change in contraceptive use behavior among the rural population (33%) and among Orthodox Christians (16%) and Protestants (4%).

Conclusions

Modern contraceptive use among young married women has showed a remarkable increase over the last decade in Ethiopia. Programmatic interventions targeting poor, younger (adolescent), illiterate, and Muslim women would help to maintain the increasing trend in modern contraceptive use.     

Fertility and family planning in Accra

A sample of 1000 currently married women aged 25-39 and living in 3 geographic areas of the Ghanaian capital were interviewed about their contraceptive knowledge and practice. Slightly over 90% of the respondents said that they had heard of ways to delay or prevent pregnancy. There was no difference between the 3 areas, but more of those aged 30-34 had heard about contraception. The chances that a respondent had heard about contraception increased with the level of education. Catholics were less likely to have heard of any contraceptive methods than Protestants. Also, women engaged in traditional informal occupations were the least likely to have heard of any contraceptive methods. Overall, education emerged as the most important differentiating factor. The pill, condom, and IUD were the best known methods. Regarding actual contraceptive practice, only 41% of the respondents were currently using some form of contraception, with about 19% using modern and 27% traditional methods. Results of contraceptive usage by user characteristics show that the majority of women in 2/3 of the areas rely on a mixture of traditional and modern methods; that the % of users (any method) increases with age up to 30-34 years, after which it decreases. The % of ever-users of any type of contraception in this study is highest for the highest education levels, at 84% for women with 2ndary and post 2ndary education. With the exception of the IUD, douche and folklore methods, better educated women have higher ever-use %s for both traditional and modern methods. While the %s of users increases with education for foam, diaphragm and withdrawal; the reverse is observed for the pill and IUD, probably due to fear of negative side effects. Overall, there are no significant variations in contraceptive use by migration status; but the % of non-users is highest among recent migrants who are also the least likely to have ever used modern methods. Fertility differentials across ethnic groups have been observed in Ghana. The Akan have the highest fertility, followed by the Ewe and Ga-Adangbe with moderate fertility, and the northern ethnic groups with the lowest fertility. The Akan also have the highest % of ever users of modern contraceptives, an inconsistency which may be explained by their recent recognition of the burdens of high fertility and their attempts to control it. Religious differences are pronounced, especially between the traditional category on the 1 hand, and Christians and Muslims on the other. Results of an analysis of variance suggests that family size is the strongest motivation for adopting modern contraception, and that it may be used for limiting rather than spacing births.