Growth response of subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) to climate in the Olympic Mountains, Washington, USA

Growth response of subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) to climate was studied across its local geographical and elevation range in the Olympic Mountains, Washington. A dendroecological analysis of subalpine fir across a range of elevations (1350-1850 m) and annual precipitation (125-350 cm y^?1), was used to compare environmental factors affecting growth. Climate-growth relationships were explored using Pearson product-moment correlation coefficients; partial correlation analysis was used to assess relationships among site chronologies and climatic variables. Radial growth is negatively correlated with winter precipitation at high elevation and wet sites, but not at low and middle elevation dry sites. Growth is positively correlated with current growing season temperature at all sites; however, growth is negatively correlated with previous year August temperature, indicating that climate affects growth in subsequent years. Positive correlations between growth and summer precipitation during the growing season at low and middle elevation dry sites suggest that soil moisture is partially limiting to growth on these sites. If the climate of the Pacific Northwest becomes warmer and drier, then subalpine fir growth may increase at high elevation and wet sites, but may decrease at lower elevation dry sites in the Olympic Mountains. However, the growth response of subalpine fir to potentially rapid climate change will not be uniform because subalpine fir grows over a wide range of topographic features, habitats, and local climates at different geographical scales. A comparison of growth response to current growing season temperature suggests that the temperature-related growth response of subalpine fir is not adequately described by the parabolic curve used in JABOWA-based models.     

Warming‐induced upward migration of the alpine treeline in the Changbai Mountains,northeast China

Treeline responses to environmental changes describe an important phenomenon in global change research. Often conflicting results and generally too short observations are, however, still challenging our understanding of climate‐induced treeline dynamics. Here, we use a state‐of‐the‐art dendroecological approach to reconstruct long‐term changes in the position of the alpine treeline in relation to air temperature at two sides in the Changbai Mountains in northeast China. Over the past 160 years, the treeline increased by around 80 m, a process that can be divided into three phases of different rates and drives. The first phase was mainly influenced by vegetation recovery after an eruption of the Tianchi volcano in 1702. The slowly upward shift in the second phase was consistent with the slowly increasing temperature. The last phase coincided with rapid warming since 1985, and shows with 33 m per 1°C, the most intense upward shift. The spatial distribution and age structure of trees beyond the current treeline confirm the latest, warming‐induced upward shift. Our results suggest that the alpine treeline will continue to rise, and that the alpine tundra may disappear if temperatures will increase further. This study not only enhances mechanistic understanding of long‐term treeline dynamics, but also highlights the effects of rising temperatures on high‐elevation vegetation dynamics.     

Influences of 20th‐century warming at the upper tree line contingent on local‐scale interactions: evidence from a latitudinal gradient in the Rocky Mountains,USA

Aims Twentieth‐century climate, the spatial pattern of tree establishment and positive feedback influence upper tree line ecotones. Here, I investigate how these factors interact to gain a more holistic understanding of how broad‐scale abiotic and local‐scale site conditions regulate tree establishment within upper tree line ecotones. Location A latitudinal gradient (c. 35–45° N) in the US Rocky Mountains. Study sites (n= 22) were located in the Bighorn (BH), Medicine Bow (MB), Front Range (FR) and Sangre de Cristo (SDC) mountain ranges. Methods Dendroecological techniques were used to reconstruct tree establishment dates that were compared with 20th‐century climate data using correlation and regime shift analyses. Spatial patterns of tree establishment were analysed by Ripley's K and used to determine local‐scale interactions capable of ameliorating broad‐scale climate inputs through positive feedback. Results Significant correlations (P < 0.01) between tree establishment and climate were confined to the FR, where a positive correlation was found with summer (June–August) and cool season (November–April) temperature range (T_max?T_min). These trees were almost exclusively situated in a random spatial pattern. Similar patterns exist in the BH, yet their establishment was contingent on the availability of local shelter in the lee of boulders. Trees in the MB and SDC were primarily clustered in space and had no significant correlations with climate. Considerable lag times exist between regime shift changes in climate towards more favourable growing conditions and corresponding shifts in tree establishment in all mountain ranges except the FR, where synchronous shifts occurred in the early 1950s. Main conclusions These results suggest that the influence of broad‐scale climate on upper tree line dynamics is contingent on the local‐scale spatial patterns of tree establishment and related influences of positive feedback. This research has important implications for understanding how vegetation communities will respond to global climate change.     

高山林线生态交错区木本植物幼苗分布特征、更新机制及其对气候变化的响应

木本植物幼苗是高山林线生态交错区的重要组成部分,其更新对气候变化背景下树线的移动至关重要.本研究通过对近几十年来全球范围内林线生态交错区的木本植物幼苗分布特征、更新机制及其对气候变化响应的研究总结得出:林线生态交错区木本植物幼苗的空间分布类型主要为渐变型和聚集型,且不同分布类型对树线动态的指示意义各异.在全球尺度上,其分布的海拔高限通常与生长季长度、均温和物种特性等有关,而在区域尺度上则多受降水影响.在幼苗更新初期,种源在很大程度上决定了种子的萌发及分布位置,之后微环境的促进作用为幼苗的定植提供庇护,提高其存活率,而在更新后期多种生物和非生物因素及其相互作用则非常关键.气候变暖促使林线生态交错区气温升高、降水充沛,有利于幼苗生长,使其向高海拔区域扩张而成为树线上移的先兆,但部分物种受遗传特性或适应策略影响,仅表现为密度增加,使树线保持相对稳定.未来应借助树轮、14C等精确定年技术,通过长期的野外定位观测和室内模拟,加强多时空尺度下林线幼苗的空间分布特征和更新机制研究,分析不同类型林线内木本植物幼苗的适应策略,预测气候变化背景下的树线动态,为山地生态系统恢复及保护提供科学依据.     

Growth coherency and climate sensitivity of Larix sibirica at the upper treeline in the Russian Altai-Sayan Mountains

Tree-ring research in the Altai-Sayan Mountains so far only considered a limited number of well-replicated site chronologies. The dendroecological and palaeoclimatological potential and limitations of large parts of south-central Russia therefore remain rather unexplored. Here, we present a newly updated network of 13 larch (Larix sibirica Ldb.) tree-ring width (TRW) chronologies from mid to higher elevations along a nearly 1000 km west-to-east transect across the greater Altai-Sayan region. All data were sampled between 2009 and 2014. The corresponding site chronologies cover periods from 440 to 860 years. The highest TRW agreement is found between chronologies ≥2200 m asl, whereas the material from lower elevations reveals overall less synchronized interannual to longer-term growth variability. While fluctuations in average June–July temperature predominantly contribute to the growth at higher elevations, arid air masses from Mongolia mainly affect TRW formation at lower elevations. Our results are indicative for the dendroclimatological potential of the Altai-Sayan Mountains, where both, variation in summer temperature and hydroclimate can be robustly reconstructed back in time. These findings are valid for a huge region in central Asia where reliable meteorological observations are spatially scarce and temporally restricted to the second half of the 20th century. The development of new high-resolution climate reconstruction over several centuries to millennia will further appear beneficial for timely endeavors at the interface of archaeology, climatology and history.     

Quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) at treeline: a century of change in the San Juan Mountains, Colorado, USA

During a repeat photography study quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) was observed invading conifer stands at treeline in the San Juan Mountains of south‐western Colorado. Aspen tree core samples were collected from nine plots ranging in elevation from 3192 to 3547 m, and estimated dates of establishment of aspen were grouped into 10‐year intervals for analysis. Estimated periods of establishment were compared with century‐long climate data records to derive any correlations with aspen invasion. Other disturbance agents, such as fire and livestock grazing were also considered. Quantitative analysis of climate variables suggests that decreased mean spring precipitation and increased mean summer maximum temperature provide optimal conditions for aspen establishment. Episodes of invasion were non‐synchronous, but all occurred after 1900, and are likely from seed germination, considered unusual in aspen. Different climate variables explain stand initiation from seed and subsequent peak establishment from vegetative reproduction. Long‐term climate records indicate a general warming since the beginning of the 20th century and explain the continued invasion and persistence of aspen at treeline, resulting from asexual reproduction. Short‐term climate records identify anomalously cool, moist years that explain rarely observed sexual reproduction in aspen.     

Estimation of Successful Breeding Pairs for Wolves in the Northern Rocky Mountains,USA

Abstract: Under the Endangered Species Act, documenting recovery and federally mandated population levels of wolves (Canis lupus) in the Northern Rocky Mountains (NRM) requires monitoring wolf packs that successfully recruit young. United States Fish and Wildlife Service regulations define successful breeding pairs as packs estimated to contain an adult male and female, accompanied by ≥2 pups on 31 December of a given year. Monitoring successful breeding pairs will become more difficult following proposed delisting of NRM wolves; alternatives to historically intensive methods, appropriate to the different ecological and regulatory context following delisting, are required. Because pack size is easier to monitor than pack composition, we estimated probability a pack would contain a successful breeding pair based on its size for wolf populations inhabiting 6 areas in the NRM. We also evaluated the extent to which differences in demography of wolves and levels of human-caused mortality among the areas influenced the probability of packs of different sizes would contain successful breeding pairs. Probability curves differed among analysis areas, depending primarily on levels of human-caused mortality, secondarily on annual population growth rate, and little on annual population density. Probabilities that packs contained successful breeding pairs were more uniformly distributed across pack sizes in areas with low levels of human mortality and stable populations. Large packs in areas with high levels of human-caused mortality and high annual growth rates had relatively high probabilities of containing breeding pairs whereas those for small packs were relatively low. Our approach can be used by managers to estimate number of successful breeding pairs in a population where number of packs and their sizes are known. Following delisting of NRM wolves, human-caused mortality is likely to increase, resulting in more small packs with low probabilities of containing breeding pairs. Differing contributions of packs to wolf population growth based on their size suggests monitoring successful breeding pairs will provide more accurate insights into population dynamics of wolves than will monitoring number of packs or individuals only.     

Arctic and boreal plant species decline at their southern range limits in the Rocky Mountains

Climate change is predicted to cause a decline in warm‐margin plant populations, but this hypothesis has rarely been tested. Understanding which species and habitats are most likely to be affected is critical for adaptive management and conservation. We monitored the density of 46 populations representing 28 species of arctic‐alpine or boreal plants at the southern margin of their ranges in the Rocky Mountains of Montana, USA, between 1988 and 2014 and analysed population trends and relationships to phylogeny and habitat. Marginal populations declined overall during the past two decades; however, the mean trend for 18 dicot populations was ?5.8% per year, but only ?0.4% per year for the 28 populations of monocots and pteridophytes. Declines in the size of peripheral populations did not differ significantly among tundra, fen and forest habitats. Results of our study support predicted effects of climate change and suggest that vulnerability may depend on phylogeny or associated anatomical/physiological attributes.     

Wolf population dynamics in the U.S. Northern Rocky Mountains are affected by recruitment and human-caused mortality

Reliable analyses can help wildlife managers make good decisions, which are particularly critical for controversial decisions such as wolf (Canis lupus) harvest. Creel and Rotella (2010) recently predicted substantial population declines in Montana wolf populations due to harvest, in contrast to predictions made by Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks (MFWP). We replicated their analyses considering only those years in which field monitoring was consistent, and we considered the effect of annual variation in recruitment on wolf population growth. Rather than assuming constant rates, we used model selection methods to evaluate and incorporate models of factors driving recruitment and human-caused mortality rates in wolf populations in the Northern Rocky Mountains. Using data from 27 area-years of intensive wolf monitoring, we show that variation in both recruitment and human-caused mortality affect annual wolf population growth rates and that human-caused mortality rates have increased with the sizes of wolf populations. We document that recruitment rates have decreased over time, and we speculate that rates have decreased with increasing population sizes and/or that the ability of current field resources to document recruitment rates has recently become less successful as the number of wolves in the region has increased. Estimates of positive wolf population growth in Montana from our top models are consistent with field observations and estimates previously made by MFWP for 2008–2010, whereas the predictions for declining wolf populations of Creel and Rotella (2010) are not. Familiarity with limitations of raw data, obtained first-hand or through consultation with scientists who collected the data, helps generate more reliable inferences and conclusions in analyses of publicly available datasets. Additionally, development of efficient monitoring methods for wolves is a pressing need, so that analyses such as ours will be possible in future years when fewer resources will be available for monitoring. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

太白山南北坡高山林线太白红杉对气候变化的响应差异

气候变化对秦岭植被生长的影响已经引起了人们的广泛关注,在相同的立地条件下,植被对气候变化的响应会因坡向不同而产生差异,秦岭的分水岭太白山尤为典型,为更进一步揭示不同坡向太白红杉(Larix chinensis)对气候变化响应的差异,以树木年代学为依据,利用采自太白山南、北坡相同海拔的太白红杉树芯样本分别建立了树轮年表,并分析了两者的年表特征,探讨了树轮宽度指数与气候因子之间的相关性及逐步线性回归方程。结果表明:太白山南、北坡太白红杉年表的平均敏感度、样本间平均相关系数、样本总体代表性等特征值较高,表明两个不同坡向年表中皆含有丰富的环境信息,相对而言,北坡样地植被对气候的响应较南坡样地敏感;由相关性分析可知,南北坡太白红杉差值年表对气温和降水响应显著的月份有所差异,北坡样地轮宽指数与当年和前一年1—6月平均气温皆为显著正相关关系,而南坡样地轮宽指数仅与当年5—6月平均气温通过显著性检验。南、北坡太白红杉径向生长都明显受到前一年6月降水"滞后效应"的一致影响,但北坡仅与当年8月的降水呈显著正相关,南坡与当年1—4月的平均降水量存在十分显著的负相关;多元线性逐步回归模型显示,气温因子对回归方程的贡献最大值均大于降水因子的贡献最大值,表明气温因子的变化更易引起太白红杉树轮宽度的变化,另外,气温因子对北坡样地回归模型的贡献值比气温因子对南坡样地回归模型的贡献值大,表明北坡样地处树轮宽度指数对气温因子更敏感,并且与相关分析结果一致。     

Recent invasion of the mountain birch Betula pubescens ssp. tortuosa above the treeline due to climate change: genetic and ecological study in northern Sweden

Mountain birch, Betula pubescens ssp. tortuosa, forms the treeline in northern Sweden. A recent shift in the range of the species associated with an elevation of the treeline is commonly attributed to climate warming. Using microsatellite markers, we explored the genetic structure of populations along an altitudinal gradient close to the treeline. Low genetic differentiation was found between populations, whereas high genetic diversity was maintained within populations. High level of gene flow compensated for possible losses of genetic diversity at higher elevations and dissipated the founding effect of newly established populations above the treeline. Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed low spatial genetic structure within populations because of extensive gene flow. At the treeline, significant genetic structure within the juvenile age class at small distances did not persist in the adult age class, indicating recent expansion of young recruits due to the warming of the climate. Finally, seedling performance above the treeline was positively correlated with parameters related to temperature. These data confirm the high migration potential of the species in response to fluctuating environmental conditions and indicate that it is now invading higher altitudes due to the recent warming of the climate.     

Fire, fuels and restoration of ponderosa pine–Douglas fir forests in the Rocky Mountains, USA

Aim Forest restoration in ponderosa pine and mixed ponderosa pine–Douglas fir forests in the US Rocky Mountains has been highly influenced by a historical model of frequent, low‐severity surface fires developed for the ponderosa pine forests of the Southwestern USA. A restoration model, based on this low‐severity fire model, focuses on thinning and prescribed burning to restore historical forest structure. However, in the US Rocky Mountains, research on fire history and forest structure, and early historical reports, suggest the low‐severity model may only apply in limited geographical areas. The aim of this article is to elaborate a new variable‐severity fire model and evaluate the applicability of this model, along with the low‐severity model, for the ponderosa pine–Douglas fir forests of the Rocky Mountains. Location Rocky Mountains, USA. Methods The geographical applicability of the two fire models is evaluated using historical records, fire histories and forest age‐structure analyses. Results Historical sources and tree‐ring reconstructions document that, near or before ad 1900, the low‐severity model may apply in dry, low‐elevation settings, but that fires naturally varied in severity in most of these forests. Low‐severity fires were common, but high‐severity fires also burned thousands of hectares. Tree regeneration increased after these high‐severity fires, and often attained densities much greater than those reconstructed for Southwestern ponderosa pine forests. Main conclusions Exclusion of fire has not clearly and uniformly increased fuels or shifted the fire type from low‐ to high‐severity fires. However, logging and livestock grazing have increased tree densities and risk of high‐severity fires in some areas. Restoration is likely to be most effective which seeks to (1) restore variability of fire, (2) reverse changes brought about by livestock grazing and logging, and (3) modify these land uses so that degradation is not repeated.     

Delayed autumn phenology in the Northern Hemisphere is related to change in both climate and spring phenology

The timing of the end of the vegetation growing season (EOS) plays a key role in terrestrial ecosystem carbon and nutrient cycles. Autumn phenology is, however, still poorly understood, and previous studies generally focused on few species or were very limited in scale. In this study, we applied four methods to extract EOS dates from NDVI records between 1982 and 2011 for the Northern Hemisphere, and determined the temporal correlations between EOS and environmental factors (i.e., temperature, precipitation and insolation), as well as the correlation between spring and autumn phenology, using partial correlation analyses. Overall, we observed a trend toward later EOS in ~70% of the pixels in Northern Hemisphere, with a mean rate of 0.18 ± 0.38 days yr^?1. Warming preseason temperature was positively associated with the rate of EOS in most of our study area, except for arid/semi‐arid regions, where the precipitation sum played a dominant positive role. Interestingly, increased preseason insolation sum might also lead to a later date of EOS. In addition to the climatic effects on EOS, we found an influence of spring vegetation green‐up dates on EOS, albeit biome dependent. Our study, therefore, suggests that both environmental factors and spring phenology should be included in the modeling of EOS to improve the predictions of autumn phenology as well as our understanding of the global carbon and nutrient balances.     

Among‐tree variability and feedback effects result in different growth responses to climate change at the upper treeline in the Swiss Alps

Upper treeline ecotones are important life form boundaries and particularly sensitive to a warming climate. Changes in growth conditions at these ecotones have wide‐ranging implications for the provision of ecosystem services in densely populated mountain regions like the European Alps. We quantify climate effects on short‐ and long‐term tree growth responses, focusing on among‐tree variability and potential feedback effects. Although among‐tree variability is thought to be substantial, it has not been considered systematically yet in studies on growth–climate relationships. We compiled tree‐ring data including almost 600 trees of major treeline species (Larix decidua, Picea abies, Pinus cembra, and Pinus mugo) from three climate regions of the Swiss Alps. We further acquired tree size distribution data using unmanned aerial vehicles. To account for among‐tree variability, we employed information‐theoretic model selections based on linear mixed‐effects models (LMMs) with flexible choice of monthly temperature effects on growth. We isolated long‐term trends in ring‐width indices (RWI) in interaction with elevation. The LMMs revealed substantial amounts of previously unquantified among‐tree variability, indicating different strategies of single trees regarding when and to what extent to invest assimilates into growth. Furthermore, the LMMs indicated strongly positive temperature effects on growth during short summer periods across all species, and significant contributions of fall (L. decidua) and current year's spring (L. decidua, P. abies). In the longer term, all species showed consistently positive RWI trends at highest elevations, but different patterns with decreasing elevation. L. decidua exhibited even negative RWI trends compared to the highest treeline sites, whereas P. abies, P. cembra, and P. mugo showed steeper or flatter trends with decreasing elevation. This does not only reflect effects of ameliorated climate conditions on tree growth over time, but also reveals first signs of long‐suspected negative and positive feedback of climate change on stand dynamics at treeline.     

小五台山青杨雌雄植株树轮生长特性及其对气候变化的响应差异

近年来逆境导致植物雌雄幼苗的生长出现差异被许多控制实验所证实, 而有关气候变化对雌雄异株植物成树生长的潜在影响尚未引起人们广泛的关注。为进一步揭示气候变化对雌雄植株树木径向和密度生长的不同影响, 该文通过树轮生态学的研究方法, 选择小五台山天然青杨(Populus cathayana)种群为研究对象, 对青杨雌雄植株近30年(1982-2011)的树轮生长特性及其与气候的相关性进行了分析。结果显示: 1)在近30年当地气温不断升高的气候条件下, 雌株的年轮最大密度和晚材平均密度均高于雄株(p < 0.05), 但雌雄植株的径向生长无显著差异; 2)雌雄植株年轮最大密度和宽度差值年表的变化趋势具有一致性, 但在年轮最大密度差值年表的变化上雄株波动幅度大于雌株; 3)青杨雌雄植株年轮密度差值年表对温度响应的月份明显不同。雌株年轮最大密度与当年8月的月平均最高气温显著正相关, 而雄株年轮最大密度与当年1月和4月的气温负相关; 4)生长季前的气候变化对青杨雌雄植株的径向生长均有明显的限制作用。此外, 当年6月的高温对于早材生长的限制作用特别明显。上述结果表明, 雌雄异株植物在树木年轮生长方面对全球气候变暖可能具有不同的响应机制, 雌株比雄株更侧重于密度生长。     

秦岭山地针叶树种树木生长对气候变化的响应

秦岭作为我国重要的地理分界线,其亚高山针叶林生态系统在区域乃至更大尺度范围的水源涵养、生物多样性维护、气候调节等方面具有重要价值。近几十年,秦岭地区大幅升温且存在空间异质性。研究秦岭针叶林带树木生长对气候变化的响应规律对于气候变化下山地森林保护与管理具有重要价值。本文综述了秦岭西部、中部和东部不同海拔针叶树种树木生长与气候的响应关系,从树木径向生长、NDVI、物候和物种分布范围等方面探讨了气候变化对针叶树种的影响,并对树木生长响应气候变化研究中可能存在的问题和研究前景进行了展望。     

不同海拔和坡向马尾松树轮宽度对气候变化的响应

以马尾松树轮样芯为材料,利用树木年代学方法分别建立低海拔(260 m)、中海拔(460 m)、高海拔(690 m)及阳坡(270 m)、阴坡(265 m)处马尾松标准及差值年表,将树轮宽度指数与气候因子进行相关及冗余分析,并建立马尾松径向生长量与气候要素的最优多元回归模型,分析福建将乐地区树木径向生长特征及其与气候的关系随海拔及坡向的变化规律.结果表明:该区域马尾松径向生长在海拔梯度上主要受降水量影响,在坡向水平主要受温度影响;120个气候变量中,上年12月降水量及当年2月极端最低气温分别在海拔及坡向处与马尾松径向生长呈显著负相关.该研究定量描述气候变化对亚热带地区马尾松径向生长的影响,为气候变暖背景下将乐地区马尾松林的栽植及管理提供科学依据.