Phenological responses to small-scale spatial variation in snowmelt timing reveal compensatory and conservative strategies in subarctic-alpine plants

Background: In tundra ecosystems, the adjustment of phenological events, such as bud burst, to snowmelt timing is crucial to the climatic adaptation of plants. Natural small-scale variations in microclimate potentially enable plant populations to persist in a changing climate.

Aims: To assess how plant phenology responds to natural differences in snowmelt timing.

Methods: We observed the timing of eight vegetative and reproductive phenophases in seven dwarf-shrub species in relation to differences in snowmelt timing on a small spatial scale in an alpine environment in subarctic Finland.

Results: Some species and phenophases showed accelerated development with later snowmelt, thus providing full or partial compensation for the shorter snow-free period. Full compensation resulted in synchronous occurrence of phenophases across the snowmelt gradient. In other species, there was no acceleration of development. The timing of phenophases varied between two consecutive years and two opposing mountain slope aspects.

Conclusions: The results have shown three distinct patterns in the timing of phenophases in relation to snowmelt and suggest alternative strategies for adaptation to snowmelt timing. These strategies potentially apply to other species and tundra ecosystems and provide a framework, enabling one to compare and generalise phenological responses to snowmelt timing under different future climate scenarios.     

Bias in phenology assessments based on first appearance data of butterflies

Data on the first appearance of species in the field season are widely used in phenological studies. However, there are probabilistic arguments for bias in estimates of phenological change if sampling methods or population abundances change. We examined the importance of bias in three measures of phenological change: (1) the date of the first X appearances, (2) the date of the first Y% of all first appearances and (3) the date of the first Z% of the individuals observed during the entire flight period. These measures were tested by resampling the data of the Dutch Butterfly Monitoring Scheme and by simulations using artificial data. We compared datasets differing in the number of sampling sites, population abundance and the start of the observation period. The date of the first X appearances proved to be sensitive to the number of sampling sites. Both the date of the first X appearances and the date of the first Y% of all first appearances were sensitive to population trend. No such biases were found for estimates of the first Z% of the flight period, but all three measures were sensitive to changes in the start of the observation period. The conclusions were similar for both the study on butterfly data and the simulation study. Bias in phenology assessments based on first appearance data may be considerable and should no longer be ignored in phenological research.     

Stoneworts of Coll and Tiree

Background: Since phenology is a good bio-indicator of temperature the latter is often used in phenological analyses. However, whilst meteorological data are difficult to interpolate from point measurements at the desired resolution, region-wide digital data, e.g. elevation models or land cover data, are usually readily available.

Aims: The potential of environmental variables, other than meteorological data, to create a bioclimatic classification of landscapes at the mesoscale was tested by the joint use of spatial data and the flowering dates of Forsythia suspensa at 70 phenological stations in southern Bavaria, Germany.

Methods: A linear discriminant analysis was carried out to identify relevant land use variables that were correlated with phenology and, using these results, to regionalise the observed flowering dates within the framework of a Geographic Information System.

Results: The generated map represented dates of onset at the regional scale, mostly influenced by the extent of impervious (hard, sealed) surfaces and forest, altitude and distance to urban areas. Thus, we overcame restrictions resulting from the difficulties of spatially interpolating available climatological data, and from the limited number of phenological datasets.

Conclusions: We demonstrated that the selected variables were capable of adequately modelling regional bioclimatic zonation, and that phenology was a useful proxy of regional climate variation arising from both natural and anthropogenic factors.     

Past and future climate-driven shifts in the distribution of a warm-adapted bird species,the European Roller Coracias garrulus

ABSTRACT

Capsule: The distribution range of the European Roller Coracias garrulus has undergone large changes over geological times, but although the species is warm-adapted, the human induced climate change is predicted to affect negatively the range of the currently large populations.

Aim: Information on species-specific vulnerability to climate change is crucial not only for designing interventions and setting conservation goals, but also to inform conservation decision-making. Our goal was to map climate suitability for the European Roller in the Western Palaearctic under current climate, and for past (last glacial maximum and mid-Holocene) and future (2050 and 2070) climate scenarios.

Methods: We used MaxEnt for species distribution modelling based on the reconstructed distribution map of the species.

Results: Our results suggest that during glacial periods Rollers persisted in small southern refugia, and then spread and colonized northern latitudes during the mid-Holocene. In the future, our models forecast a shift in climatically suitable range towards northern latitudes and an overall small range contraction (4.5–5.5%). Warmer temperatures will increase climate suitability in northern countries where the species is currently declining or became locally extinct. On the other hand, wide suitable areas under current climatic conditions are predicted to become unsuitable in the future (35–38% by 2050 and 2070, respectively), significantly impacting large populations such as those in Romania, Spain, Bulgaria and Hungary. French and Italian populations are identified to be future key populations for Roller conservation.

Conclusions: Our findings suggest that future climate changes will likely amplify the impacts of existing threats on the majority of large European Roller populations in Europe.     

Weather conditions affect the collective roosting behaviour of the Cattle Egret Bubulcus ibis

ABSTRACT

Capsule: Collective roosting behaviour of the Cattle Egret Bubulcus ibis was influenced by the weather and the season.

Aims: To document the roosting behaviour of the Cattle Egret and assess the relationship between weather conditions and four components of the roosting behaviour including the population size, duration of roost occupancy, the timing of roost gathering and the rate of arrival at roost.

Methods: We recorded the number and arrival times of individuals occupying a communal roost site in northeast Algeria in 2013–2014 between December and April.

Results: There was a seasonal decline of the flock size and rate of arrival and a seasonal increase in the duration of gathering. Weather conditions affected all variables assessed in roosting behaviour such that bad weather lowered the number of individuals in the roost, lengthened the duration and advanced the timing of gathering, and reduced the rate of gathering in the roost.

Conclusion: Our study highlights the importance of weather conditions in shaping the collective roosting behaviour of a gregarious species. Our results suggest that future changes in climatic conditions might influence the collective behaviour of the Cattle Egret in particular and gregarious birds in general.     

Spatio-temporal modelling and assessment of within-species phenological variability using thermal time methods

Phenological observations of flowering date, budding date or senescence provide very valuable time series. They hold out the prospect for relating plant growth to environmental and climatic factors and hence for engendering a better understanding of plant physiology under natural conditions. The statistical establishment of associations between time series of phenological data and climatic factors provides a means of aiding forecasts of the biological impacts of future climatic change. However, it must be kept in mind that plant growth and behaviour vary spatially as well as temporally. Environmental, climatic and genetic diversity can give rise to spatially structured variation on a range of scales. The variations extend from large-scale geographical (clinal) trends, through medium-scale population and sub-population fluctuations, to micro-scale differentiation among neighbouring plants, where spatially close individuals are found to be genetically more alike than those some distance apart. We developed spatio-temporal phenological models that allow observations from multiple locations to be analysed simultaneously. We applied the models to the first-flowering dates of Prunus padus and Tilia cordata from localities as far apart as Norway and the Caucasus. Our growing-degree-day approach yielded a good fit to the available phenological data and yet involved only a small number of model parameters. It indicated that plants should display different sensitivities to temperature change according to their geographical location and the time of year at which they flower. For spring-flowering plants, we found strong temperature sensitivities for islands and archipelagos with oceanic climates, and low sensitivities in the interiors of continents.     

Non-linear regression models for time to flowering in wild chickpea combine genetic and climatic factors

Background

Accurate prediction of crop flowering time is required for reaching maximal farm efficiency. Several models developed to accomplish this goal are based on deep knowledge of plant phenology, requiring large investment for every individual crop or new variety. Mathematical modeling can be used to make better use of more shallow data and to extract information from it with higher efficiency. Cultivars of chickpea, Cicer arietanum, are currently being improved by introgressing wild C. reticulatum biodiversity with very different flowering time requirements. More understanding is required for how flowering time will depend on environmental conditions in these cultivars developed by introgression of wild alleles.

Results

We built a novel model for flowering time of wild chickpeas collected at 21 different sites in Turkey and grown in 4 distinct environmental conditions over several different years and seasons. We propose a general approach, in which the analytic forms of dependence of flowering time on climatic parameters, their regression coefficients, and a set of predictors are inferred automatically by stochastic minimization of the deviation of the model output from data. By using a combination of Grammatical Evolution and Differential Evolution Entirely Parallel method, we have identified a model that reflects the influence of effects of day length, temperature, humidity and precipitation and has a coefficient of determination of R²=0.97.

Conclusions

We used our model to test two important hypotheses. We propose that chickpea phenology may be strongly predicted by accession geographic origin, as well as local environmental conditions at the site of growth. Indeed, the site of origin-by-growth environment interaction accounts for about 14.7% of variation in time period from sowing to flowering. Secondly, as the adaptation to specific environments is blueprinted in genomes, the effects of genes on flowering time may be conditioned on environmental factors. Genotype-by-environment interaction accounts for about 17.2% of overall variation in flowering time. We also identified several genomic markers associated with different reactions to climatic factor changes. Our methodology is general and can be further applied to extend existing crop models, especially when phenological information is limited.

     

Population change of Common Buzzards Buteo buteo in central southern England between 2011 and 2016

ABSTRACT

Capsule: Distance sampling identified an increase in estimated population size of Common Buzzards Buteo buteo in central southern England between 2011 and 2016 of more than 50%. The rate of population growth slowed in later years.

Aims: To assess the utility of a targeted distance sampling protocol to derive seasonal and annual population estimates for Common Buzzards across an area of southern England.

Methods: We used a line transect survey methodology and multiple covariate distance sampling to assess population density and abundance of Common Buzzards in spring and autumn between 2011 and 2016 across a 2600?km² area of central southern England.

Results: Estimated population size increased by more than 50%, from approximately 2900 to 4500 individuals, across the period in a trend similar to that shown by Breeding Bird Survey data.

Discussion: A slowing of the growth in population size of Common Buzzards in central southern England suggests that the species may be approaching carrying capacity in this area. These results also suggest that currently employed broad scale survey methodologies adequately reflect the general population trends for this species. Our data provide the first published estimates of the Common Buzzard population in central southern England derived from direct empirical assessment.     

Phylogeography of Potentilla fruticosa (Rosaceae) in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau revisited: a reappraisal and new insights

Background: Most empirical studies to date have suggested that alpine plants in the central Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) originated from the south-eastern QTP. However, previous phylogeographcial analysis of Potentilla fruticosa suggested that it diversified in the central QTP, which has also been assumed to have been a glacial refugium, and expanded to the north-eastern regions during the mid-Holocene period.

Aim: We reappraise this claim in the light of information acquired from sampling, haplotyping and analysing additional populations.

Methods: We sequenced the chloroplast trnT-L intergenic spacer of 346 individuals collected from 52 populations. We reconstructed phylogenetic relationships among haplotypes through Bayesian and Network analysis, and used several methods for demographic analysis.

Results: Some common and highly divergent haplotypes were distributed in the central, western and south-eastern QTP. Mismatch and other population genetic analyses applied to our data suggested that a distinct range expansion had occurred between approximately 30,000 and 325,000 years ago (kya).

Conclusions: Besides the possible postglacial expansion in the north-eastern QTP, our results further suggested that the range of the species radically expanded across the whole Plateau before the last glacial maximum (around 18 kya) and the south-eastern, western and central QTP regions had together provided important refugia during recent glacial stages. These findings, in contrast to the previous conclusions, highlight the importance of adequate sampling strategies in phylogeographical studies.     

Factors influencing Hen Harrier Circus cyaneus territory site selection and breeding success

ABSTRACT

Capsule: Our findings regarding Hen Harrier Circus cyaneus territory site selection and breeding success in Ireland offer an opportunity for the development of initiatives and conservation actions aimed at enhancing the suitability of upland areas for breeding Hen Harriers and ensuring the long-term persistence of the species.

Aims: To investigate landscape-scale associations between habitat composition and Hen Harrier territory site selection, and to explore the influence of habitat and climate on breeding success.

Methods: We used multi-model inference from generalized linear models and Euclidean distance analyses to explore the influence of habitat, topographic, anthropogenic and climatic factors on Hen Harrier territory selection and breeding success in Ireland, based on data from national breeding surveys in 2010 and 2015.

Results: Hen Harrier territories were associated with heath/shrub, bog and pre-thicket coniferous forests. Comparisons between territories and randomly generated pseudo-absences (upland and lowland) showed that breeding pairs preferentially select for these habitats. Breeding success was negatively influenced by rainfall early in the breeding season and by climatic instability, and was positively influenced by the presence of heath/shrub and bog.

Conclusions: The results suggest that Hen Harrier breeding success is compromised by the synergistic effects of climate, landscape composition and management. Effective conservation of Hen Harriers in Ireland will therefore rely on landscape-scale initiatives.     

Effect of climatic change on the duration of the breeding season in three European thrushes

Capsule Evidence for extension of breeding seasons in Song Thrushes and Blackbirds (multiple‐brooded species) and shortening in Fieldfares (a single‐brooded species).

Aims To analyse breeding data from central Europe during 1964–2006 in relation to climatic conditions operating at breeding and wintering grounds, and to compare breeding phenology in urban and rural habitats.

Methods Using chick ringing data we evaluated long‐term changes in breeding phenology of Fieldfares Turdus pilaris, Song Thrushes T. philomelos and Common Blackbirds T. merula. Changes in phenology were analysed for the 5th percentile, median, 95th percentile, inter‐quantile range (IQR) and brood size.

Results All thrushes showed consistent trends towards earlier onset of breeding. However, there was a contrasting pattern in the later phenological characteristics (median, 95th percentile and IQR) that were associated with single‐ versus multiple‐brooded species. The single‐brooded Fieldfares revealed an advancing trend in all phenological phases, which caused shortening of its breeding period. In contrast, the multiple‐brooded Song Thrushes and Blackbirds delayed both medians and the 95th percentiles of breeding dates leading to extension of their breeding seasons. Temperatures at both wintering and breeding grounds were generally negatively associated with the onset of breeding. Urban birds bred significantly earlier than their rural conspecifics, but brood sizes did not differ.

Conclusion Multiple‐brooded species may respond differently to increasing spring temperatures than single‐brooded species.     

The reproductive biology of the Rock Partridge Alectoris graeca saxatilis in the southern French Alps: first evidence of double-nesting behaviour

Capsule: Double-nesting occurs frequently in Rock Partridges Alectoris graeca living in the southern French Alps.

Aims: To investigate reproductive parameters of a Rock Partridge Alectoris graeca population.

Methods: The reproductive behaviour of 62 radio-tagged birds was monitored during the breeding seasons 2012–16, to record breeding phenology, clutch sizes, hatching success, nest survival and parental care.

Results: Double-nesting behaviour in the Rock Partridge was confirmed for the first time. Participation in incubation was similar for males and females (86% versus 70%). Clutch size was larger for nests incubated by males (11.0?±?1.6 eggs) than by females (9.5?±?1.2). Male nest survival rate (0.37) tended to be lower than female nest survival rate (0.62), although the difference was not significant. No significant difference was detected between male and female hatching success. Nest failures were caused by mammals taking the eggs (78%) or predation of the incubating parent (13%). Some circumstantial evidence suggests that occurrence of double-nesting behaviour could depend on previous winter and spring weather influencing the body condition of females. The reproductive biology of the Rock Partridge contrasts in some breeding traits with Red-legged Partridge and natural partridge hybrids, possibly due to climatic differences between habitats.

Conclusion: Confirmation of double-nesting in Rock Partridges indicates that climatic constraints inherent to its mountain environment do not act as an impediment to this behaviour. Variation in weather conditions between years could influence the annual occurrence of double-nesting.     

Fifteenth annual research symposium University of Glasgow, 1975

Background: All human land use (LU) affects the distribution of plant species; however, the impacts vary with the type/intensity of LU. For managing ecosystems, it is therefore essential to understand the effects of LU types on the distribution of plant species on a macroscale.

Aims: The objectives of our study were to quantify the effects of various LU types on the distribution of vascular plant species in Japan and to determine in particular the extent to which LU was an important factor for the distribution of common species.

Methods: Based on a logistic regression model and variation partitioning being applied to each plant species, we evaluated the partial deviance by six LU types, four climatic types and three topographic and geological factors for 647 plant species at 14,412 sites in Japan.

Results: The effect of LU was significant for species present at multiple sites. Of the six LU types, secondary vegetation and plantation were the most important factors determining species distribution for many species.

Conclusions: Our results suggest that distribution of the common species is largely affected by LU on macroscale. The design of LU relating to secondary vegetation and plantations will thus be important in determining changes in the vegetation composition within Japan.     

Vegetation change at high elevation: scale dependence and interactive effects on Niwot Ridge

Background: High-elevation mountain systems may be particularly responsive to climate change.

Aims: Here we investigate how changes along elevation gradients in mountain systems can aid in predicting vegetation distributional changes in time, focusing on how changing climatic controls affect meso-scale transitions at the lower and upper boundaries of alpine vegetation (with forest and subnival zones, respectively) as well as micro-scale transitions among plant communities within the alpine belt. We focus on climate-related drivers, particularly in relation to climate change, but also consider how species interactions, dispersal and responses to disturbance may influence plant responses to these abiotic drivers.

Results: Empirical observations and experimental studies indicate that changing climatic controls influence both meso-scale transitions at the upper and lower boundaries of alpine vegetation and micro-scale transitions among plant communities within tundra. Micro-scale heterogeneity appears to buffer response in many cases, while interactions between climate and other changes may often accelerate change.

Conclusions: Interactions with microtopography and larger edaphic gradients have the capacity to both facilitate rapid changes and reinforce stability, and that these interactions will affect the responsiveness of vegetation to climate change at different spatial scales.     

Phytoclimatic segregation of sub-Antarctic Nothofagus woodland types in Tierra del Fuego,southern South America

Background: Climatic variables determining the most suitable sites for the woodlands of Tierra del Fuego are not yet as well understood as those related to their geographical range.

Aim: The aim of this paper is to provide some insights into the relationships between climatic niche and current distribution of three Nothofagus species in Tierra del Fuego.

Methods: We have identified the climatic variables responsible for the most suitable sites for three sub-Antarctic Nothofagus woodland types within their climatic ranges by calculating suitability indices, using the CLIMPAIR niche-based phytoclimatic model.

Results: The distribution range of the major Nothofagus woodlands is mainly driven by variables related to water stress, whereas phytoclimatic suitability is mainly driven by thermal variables related to warm summer temperatures for Nothofagus betuloides and N. pumilio and to winter cold for N. antarctica that are also mainly responsible for the peculiarity of the Fueguian climate.

Conclusions: These findings introduce a new perspective in the study of the Nothofagus ecology, based on the climatic traits responsible for the high-suitability locations instead of the traditional focus on the overall geographical distribution.     

Seed mass,seed number and evolutionary trade-off across geographic distribution: do they explain invasiveness in Eschscholzia californica,central Chile?

Background: Seed mass is a life history trait that is related to invasiveness. Under limiting conditions, a trade-off is observed whereby an increase in seed mass occurs at the expense of seed numbers; if the above trade-off holds across climatic gradients it can provide an opportunity to assess the fitness/invasive potential of exotic plants.

Aims: To examine the variation in the life history traits of Eschscholzia californica populations across climatic gradients and to relate these traits to observed invasiveness.

Methods: We examined 19 populations in Chile. For each population we related seed mass, seed number, the slope of trade-off between seed mass and number and plant density with annual precipitation and mean annual temperature.

Results: Seed number and the coefficient of variation in seed mass were positively correlated with climatic variables. Trade-off was detected in 26% of the populations and no relationship was detected with climatic gradient. Plant density was negatively associated with precipitation.

Conclusions: The results suggest that for E. californica producing seeds with a variety of sizes is an optimal strategy to face geographic heterogeneity and hence to increase its invasiveness. Increased production of seeds at the cool and wet southern limit of the current range of the species does not contribute to an increase in its invasiveness.     

Comparison of β2-microglobulin serum level between Alzheimer’s patients,cognitive healthy and mild cognitive impaired individuals

Background: Several studies performed in the last years on the brain, showed that beta2-microglobulin (β2m) and MHC can act independently of their canonical immune function to regulate normal brain development, synaptic plasticity and behaviour. Increased systemic levels of soluble β2m have been implicated in cognitive impairments like that associated with chronic haemodialysis, or aortic valve replacement. Increased soluble β2m has also been detected in the cerebral spinal fluid (CSF) of patients with HIV-associated dementia and Alzheimer’s disease (AD).

Objective: To compare plasma β2m levels in healthy subjects and subjects with dementia or cognitive impairment.

Methods: We measured the concentration of β2m in a cohort of 245 individuals and compared sex matched, cognitive healthy individuals.

Results: We found higher levels of β2m in AD patients compared to non-AD MCI and healthy controls (2063?ng/mL ±852 versus 1613?±?503 and 1832?±?382?ng/mL, pp?>?0.05).

Conclusions: Our data confirm that β2m could play a role in AD. However, a replication study in an independent cohort would be necessary to confirm our preliminary results.     

Adiponectin gene polymorphisms are associated with increased susceptibility to diabetic peripheral neuropathy

Abstract

Background: Adiponectin (ADP) polymorphisms associated with diabetes mellitus in several populations. However, no previous studies have investigated its association with diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN). Our study examined the association between ADP-linked SNPs and DPN susceptibility.

Methods: We randomly recruited 160 diabetes mellitus (DM) patients and 80 healthy individuals.

Results: The C allele of rs3821799 increased DPN susceptibility. In normal individuals, GG of rs3774261 carriers had 7.1 times higher DPN susceptibility than AA carriers. The haplotype analyzes indicated CGG might increase DPN susceptibility.

Conclusion: Our study demonstrated that ADP gene polymorphisms are associated with the susceptibility to DPN.