气候变化、林火和采伐对大兴安岭森林碳储量的影响

大兴安岭林区林火发生的频率受气候变化的影响将会增加,可能会增加该地区森林生态系统碳损失.本研究通过耦合森林生态系统模型和森林景观模型以模拟未来百年大兴安岭森林碳储量动态变化,量化气候变化、林火和采伐对森林碳储量的影响.结果表明: 虽然采伐和林火会抵消相当一部分由气候变化增加的碳储量,但气候变化仍然能够增加大兴安岭森林碳储量.未来100年该地区森林地上和土壤有机碳储量将会分别增加9%～22%和6%～9%.短期(0～20年)气候变化对大兴安岭森林碳储量的影响大于同期林火的影响,中期(30～50年)和长期(60～100年)气候变化对森林碳储量的影响小于林火和采伐的影响.由于未来大兴安岭地区气候变化及其林火干扰存在不确定性,导致未来该地区森林碳储量存在较大的不确定性.未来100年大兴安岭森林地上碳储量和土壤有机碳储量不确定性分别为12.4%～16.2%和6.6%～10.4%.为准确估算我国北方森林生态系统碳储量,需要考虑种子传播、林火和采伐的影响.     

气候变化和不同强度造林对大兴安岭主要树种林分信息和地上生物量的长期影响

气候变化及相应火干扰在不同尺度上影响着我国大兴安岭地区森林动态,且在未来的影响可能继续加剧。为了提高森林生态功能和应对气候变暖,国家在分类经营基础上全面实施抚育采伐和补植造林,效果较好,但抚育采伐对森林主要树种的长期影响知之甚少,其在未来气候下的可持续性也有待进一步评估,同时,探讨造林措施对未来森林的影响也显得尤为重要。本文运用森林景观模型LANDIS PRO,模拟气候变化及火干扰、采伐和造林对大兴安岭地区主要树种的长期影响。结果表明:1)模型初始化、短期和长期模拟结果均得到了有效验证,模拟结果与森林调查数据之间无显著性差异(P0.05),基于火烧迹地数据的林火干扰验证亦能够反映当前火干扰的效果,模型模拟结果的可信度较高;2)与当前气候相比,气候变暖及火干扰明显改变了树种组成、年龄结构和地上生物量,B1气候下研究区森林基本上以针叶树种为主要树种,A2气候下优势树种向阔叶树转变;3)与无采伐预案相比,当前气候下,抚育采伐使落叶松的林分密度和地上生物量分别降低了(165±94.9)株/hm~2和(8.5±5.1) Mg/hm~2,增加了樟子松、白桦和云杉等树木株数和地上生物量(3.3—753.4株/hm~2和0.2—4.0 Mg/hm~2),而对山杨的影响较小;B1和A2气候下抚育采伐显著改变林分密度,降低景观尺度地上生物量,进而表现为不可持续;4)B1气候下,推荐实施中低强度造林预案(10%和20%强度),在A2气候下,各强度造林均可在模拟后期增加树种地上生物量。     

Spatiotemporal Variations of Fire Frequency in Central Boreal Forest

Determination of the direct causal factors controlling wildfires is key to understanding wildfire–vegetation–climate dynamics in a changing climate and for developing sustainable management strategies for biodiversity conservation and maintenance of long-term forest productivity. In this study, we sought to understand how the fire frequency of a large mixedwood forest in the central boreal shield varies as a result of temporal and spatial factors. We reconstructed the fire history of an 11,600-km² area located in the northwestern boreal forest of Ontario, using archival data of large fires occurring since 1921 and dendrochronological dating for fires prior to 1921. The fire cycle decreased from 295 years for the period of 1820–1920 to approximately 100 years for the period of 1921–2008. Spatially, fire frequency increased with latitude, attributable to higher human activities that have increased fragmentation and fire suppression in the southern portion of the study area. Fire frequency also increased with distance to waterbodies, and was higher on Podzols that were strongly correlated with moderate drainage and coniferous vegetation. The temporal increase of fire frequency in the central region, unlike western and eastern boreal forests where fire frequency has decreased, may be a result of increased warm and dry conditions associated with climate change in central North America, suggesting that the response of wildfire to global climate change may be regionally individualistic. The significant spatial factors we found in this study are in agreement with other wildfire studies, indicating the commonality of the influences by physiographic features and human activities on regional fire regimes across the boreal forest. Overall, wildfire in the central boreal shield is more frequent than that in the wetter eastern boreal region and less frequent than that in the drier western boreal region, confirming a climatic top-down control on the fire activities of the entire North American boreal forest.     

Macrocharcoal-Based Chronosequences Reveal Shifting Dominance of Conifer Boreal Forests Under Changing Fire Regime

Balsam fir (Abies balsamea) and black spruce (Picea mariana) forests are the main conifer forest types in the North American boreal zone. The coexistence of the two species as well as their respective canopy dominance in distinct stands raises questions about the long-term evolution from one forest type to the other in relation to environmental factors including climate and stand disturbance. We tested the hypothesis that repetitive fire events promote the succession of balsam fir forest to black spruce forest and vice versa. Postfire chronosequences of one black spruce (BSP) and one balsam fir (BFI) sites were reconstructed based on the botanical composition and ¹⁴C-dated soil macrocharcoals. The results support the hypothesis of a successional dynamics. The BSP site has been affected by fires for the last 7600 years, whereas the BFI site, after having been impacted by several fires during the first half of the Holocene, evolved in a fire-free environment for the last 4400 years. Periods of fire activity facilitated the dominance of black spruce forests. The cessation of fires around 4400 cal. years BP on BFI site marks the beginning of the transition from black spruce to balsam fir stands. This succession is a long process, due to the ability of black spruce to regenerate by layering in the absence of fire. The resulting balsam fir stands are ancient and precarious ecosystems, since fire generally leads to the return of black spruce. The increase in balsam fir to the detriment of black spruce in boreal forests is a response to a decrease in fire frequency.     

Spatial and temporal variations in boreal forest fire frequency in northern Alberta

Abstract. Spatial and temporal variations in fire frequency in the boreal forest of Wood Buffalo National Park (WBNP) were assessed using forest stand age, fire scar and historical data. I test the hypotheses that (1) fire frequency is higher in jack pine forests and aspen forests than in black spruce forests and white spruce forests, (2) these variations in fire frequency can be related to the mean waterbreak distance (MWD) around a site and (3) fire frequency has changed over the past 300 years. The fire cycles (the time required to burn an area equal in size to the entire study area) in jack pine forests (39 years) and in aspen forests (39 years) were significantly shorter than those in black spruce forests (78 years) and in white spruce forests (96 years). The length of the fire cycle varies inversely with the MWD around a site, and the MWD was significantly higher in jack pine and aspen forests than in black or white spruce forests. It is suggested that covariations between soil type and the MWD influence, respectively, variations in forest dominant and fire frequency. A change in fire frequency at 1860 was apparent in the fire history for all of WBNP, the black spruce dominated stands, and the near and medium MWD classes. The fire cycle estimates for these classes were all significantly shorter during the period 1750 to 1859 (fire cycles = 25–49 years) than they were in the period 1860 to 1989 (fire cycles = 59–89 years). The possible roles of changes in climate and aboriginal burning practices in causing the temporal change in fire frequency are discussed.     

The influence of meteorology and phenology on net ecosystem exchange in an eastern Siberian boreal larch forest

Aims Boreal forests play an important role in the global carbon cycle. Compared with the boreal forests in North America and Europe, relatively few research studies have been conducted in Siberian boreal forests. Knowledge related to the role of Siberian forests in the global carbon balance is thus essential for a full understanding of global carbon cycle.Methods This study investigated the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during growing season (May–September) in an eastern Siberian boreal larch forest for a 3-year period in 2004–2006 with contrasting meteorological conditions.Important findings The study found that the forest served as a carbon sink during all of the 3 studied years; in addition, the meteorological conditions essentially influenced the specific annual value of the strength of the carbon sinks in each year. Although 2005 was the warmest year and much wetter than 2004, 2005 also featured the greatest amount of ecosystem respiration, which resulted in a minimum value of NEE. The study also found that the phenological changes observed during the three study years had a relatively small effect on annual NEE. Leaf expansion was 26 days earlier in 2005 than in the other 2 years, which resulted in a longer growing season in 2005. However, the NEE in 2005 was counterbalanced by the large rate of ecosystem respiration that was caused by the higher temperatures in the year. This study showed that meteorological variables had larger influences on the interannual variations in NEE for a Siberian boreal larch forest, as compared with phenological changes. The overall results of this study will improve our understanding of the carbon balance of Siberian boreal larch forests and thus can help to forecast the response of these forests to future climate change.     

Analysing forest recovery after wildfire disturbance in boreal Siberia using remotely sensed vegetation indices

Wildfires have major effects on forest dynamics, succession and the carbon cycle in the boreal biome. They are a significant source of carbon emissions, and current observed changes in wildfire regimes due to changes in climate could affect the balance of the boreal carbon pool. A better understanding of postwildfire vegetation dynamics in boreal forests will help predict the future role of boreal forests as a carbon sink or source. Time series of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalized Difference Shortwave Infrared Index (NDSWIR) derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard the Terra satellite were used to investigate whether characteristic temporal patterns exist for stands of different ages in the Siberian boreal forests and whether their postwildfire dynamics are influenced by variables such as prewildfire vegetation cover. Two types of forests, evergreen needle‐leaf (ENF) and deciduous needle‐leaf (DNF), were studied by analysing a sample of 78 burned forest areas. In order to study a longer time frame, a chronosequence of burned areas of different ages was built by coupling information on location and age provided by a forest burned area database (from 1992 to 2003) to MODIS NDVI and NDSWIR time series acquired from 2001 to 2005. For each of the burned areas, an adjacent unburned control plot representing the same forest type was selected, with the aim of separating the interannual variations caused by climate from changes in NDVI and NDSWIR behaviour due to a wildfire. The results suggest that it takes more than 13 years for the temporal NDVI and NDSWIR signal to recover fully after wildfire. NDSWIR, which is associated to canopy moisture, needs a longer recovery period than NDVI, which is associated to vegetation greenness. The results also suggest that variability observed in postwildfire NDVI and NDSWIR can be explained partially by the dominant forest type: while 13 years after a fire NDVI and NDSWIR are similar for ENF and DNF, the initial impact appears to be greater on the NDVI and NDSWIR of ENF, suggesting a faster recovery by ENF.     

Future supply of boreal forest ecosystem services is driven by management rather than by climate change

Forests provide a wide variety of ecosystem services (ES) to society. The boreal biome is experiencing the highest rates of warming on the planet and increasing demand for forest products. To foresee how to maximize the adaptation of boreal forests to future warmer conditions and growing demands of forest products, we need a better understanding of the relative importance of forest management and climate change on the supply of ecosystem services. Here, using Finland as a boreal forest case study, we assessed the potential supply of a wide range of ES (timber, bilberry, cowberry, mushrooms, carbon storage, scenic beauty, species habitat availability and deadwood) given seven management regimes and four climate change scenarios. We used the forest simulator SIMO to project forest dynamics for 100 years into the future (2016–2116) and estimate the potential supply of each service using published models. Then, we tested the relative importance of management and climate change as drivers of the future supply of these services using generalized linear mixed models. Our results show that the effects of management on the future supply of these ES were, on average, 11 times higher than the effects of climate change across all services, but greatly differed among them (from 0.53 to 24 times higher for timber and cowberry, respectively). Notably, the importance of these drivers substantially differed among biogeographical zones within the boreal biome. The effects of climate change were 1.6 times higher in northern Finland than in southern Finland, whereas the effects of management were the opposite—they were three times higher in the south compared to the north. We conclude that new guidelines for adapting forests to global change should account for regional differences and the variation in the effects of climate change and management on different forest ES.     

Dispersal limitation drives successional pathways in Central Siberian forests under current and intensified fire regimes

Fire is a primary driver of boreal forest dynamics. Intensifying fire regimes due to climate change may cause a shift in boreal forest composition toward reduced dominance of conifers and greater abundance of deciduous hardwoods, with potential biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks to regional and global climate. This shift has already been observed in some North American boreal forests and has been attributed to changes in site conditions. However, it is unknown if the mechanisms controlling fire‐induced changes in deciduous hardwood cover are similar among different boreal forests, which differ in the ecological traits of the dominant tree species. To better understand the consequences of intensifying fire regimes in boreal forests, we studied postfire regeneration in five burns in the Central Siberian dark taiga, a vast but poorly studied boreal region. We combined field measurements, dendrochronological analysis, and seed‐source maps derived from high‐resolution satellite images to quantify the importance of site conditions (e.g., organic layer depth) vs. seed availability in shaping postfire regeneration. We show that dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers was the main factor determining postfire regeneration composition and density. Site conditions had significant but weaker effects. We used information on postfire regeneration to develop a classification scheme for successional pathways, representing the dominance of deciduous hardwoods vs. evergreen conifers at different successional stages. We estimated the spatial distribution of different successional pathways under alternative fire regime scenarios. Under intensified fire regimes, dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers is predicted to become more severe, primarily due to reduced abundance of surviving seed sources within burned areas. Increased dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers, in turn, is predicted to increase the prevalence of successional pathways dominated by deciduous hardwoods. The likely fire‐induced shift toward greater deciduous hardwood cover may affect climate–vegetation feedbacks via surface albedo, Bowen ratio, and carbon cycling.     

Post-Glacial Climate–Fire Interactions Control Tree Composition of Mesic Temperate Forests in Eastern North America

Stand-scale gap-phase dynamics is generally viewed as the main driver of development in mesic deciduous forests of the temperate biome. Soil charcoal of temperate forests in eastern North America are unnoticed in most surveys, thus explaining why fire is undervalued as a driver of forest succession. The extent to which gap-phase, fire, or other processes are responsible for the regeneration and maintenance of mesic deciduous forests is unknown because paleoecological evidence is lacking. We tested the fire-driven succession hypothesis on the development of this major forest type. Based on charcoal ¹⁴C dates of two sites, 44 and 55 fires occurred since early Holocene, with a mean interval of 170 to 215 years. The vegetation of both sites followed comparable post-glacial trajectories consisting of three distinct periods. Conifers dominated the two first periods during 5200–6000 years and were replaced by hardwoods–conifers over the last 3500 years. The first period was represented by boreal conifers, whereas the second period, dominated by white pine (Pinus strobus) forests, persisted during 3000–4300 years. The third period marked the development of hardwood (sugar maple, Acer saccharum) forests. Fires occurred continuously on the sites since early Holocene likely under dry conditions during the conifer periods and cooler and moister conditions during the hardwood–conifer period. Recurrent fires appear with climate as key drivers of the long-term dynamics of several temperate forests in eastern North America. Similar studies on other temperate forests should be pursued to test the hypothesis of climate–fire interactions influencing tree composition change.

     

Persistent and pervasive compositional shifts of western boreal forest plots in Canada

Species compositional shifts have important consequences to biodiversity and ecosystem function and services to humanity. In boreal forests, compositional shifts from late‐successional conifers to early‐successional conifers and deciduous broadleaves have been postulated based on increased fire frequency associated with climate change truncating stand age‐dependent succession. However, little is known about how climate change has affected forest composition in the background between successive catastrophic fires in boreal forests. Using 1797 permanent sample plots from western boreal forests of Canada measured from 1958 to 2013, we show that after accounting for stand age‐dependent succession, the relative abundances of early‐successional deciduous broadleaves and early‐successional conifers have increased at the expense of late‐successional conifers with climate change. These background compositional shifts are persistent temporally, consistent across all forest stand ages and pervasive spatially across the region. Rising atmospheric CO₂ promoted early‐successional conifers and deciduous broadleaves, and warming increased early‐successional conifers at the expense of late‐successional conifers, but compositional shifts were not associated with climate moisture index. Our results emphasize the importance of climate change on background compositional shifts in the boreal forest and suggest further compositional shifts as rising CO₂ and warming will continue in the 21st century.     

Land cover change 2002–2005 in Borneo and the role of fire derived from MODIS imagery

Borneo has experienced heavy deforestation and forest degradation during the past two decades. In this study the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer was used to monitor land cover change in Borneo between 2002 and 2005 in order to assess the current extent of the forest cover, the deforestation rate and the role of fire. Using Landsat and ground observation for validation it was possible to discriminate 11 land cover classes. In 2002 57% of the land surface of Borneo was covered with forest of which 74% was dipterocarp and more than 23% peat swamp forest. The average deforestation rate between 2002 and 2005 was 1.7% yr^{− 1}. The carbon-rich ecosystem of peat swamp forests showed a deforestation rate of 2.2%. Almost 98% of all deforestation occurred within a range of 5 km to the forest edge. Fire is highly correlated with land cover changes. Most fires were detected in degraded forests. Ninety-eight per cent of all forest fires were detected in the 5 km buffer zone, underlining that fire is the major driver for forest degradation and deforestation.     

Differential declines in Alaskan boreal forest vitality related to climate and competition

Rapid warming and changes in water availability at high latitudes alter resource abundance, tree competition, and disturbance regimes. While these changes are expected to disrupt the functioning of boreal forests, their ultimate implications for forest composition are uncertain. In particular, recent site‐level studies of the Alaskan boreal forest have reported both increases and decreases in productivity over the past few decades. Here, we test the idea that variations in Alaskan forest growth and mortality rates are contingent on species composition. Using forest inventory measurements and climate data from plots located throughout interior and south‐central Alaska, we show significant growth and mortality responses associated with competition, midsummer vapor pressure deficit, and increased growing season length. The governing climate and competition processes differed substantially across species. Surprisingly, the most dramatic climate response occurred in the drought tolerant angiosperm species, trembling aspen, and linked high midsummer vapor pressure deficits to decreased growth and increased insect‐related mortality. Given that species composition in the Alaskan and western Canadian boreal forests is projected to shift toward early‐successional angiosperm species due to fire regime, these results underscore the potential for a reduction in boreal productivity stemming from increases in midsummer evaporative demand.     

Wildfires affect tree growth and resilience in Northeastern China natural Dahurian larch forests: A dendrochronological perspective

Wildfires are natural and ubiquitous disturbances in boreal forests. Assessing their impacts on tree growth and resilience are particularly important to recognize the adaptation strategies of fire-tolerant species and forest succession in fire conditions. To date, the growth resilience of fire-tolerant species in boreal forests remains largely unquantified, and the drivers of resilience are poorly understood. Here, we measured the tree-ring widths of 99 fire-scarred trees from three sites in natural Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii) forests. Three moderate-severity fire events in years 1987, 1990, and 2000 occurring at three sites were detected from the records of local forestry bureau. Based on tree-ring width data, we calculated resilience components (i.e., resistance, recovery, resilience and relative resilience) to quantify the responses of growth resilience in the larch trees to fires and analyzed their drivers at three sites. Results indicated that fires significantly reduced the tree growth. With the increasing tree age, these reductions were more pronounced. As for resilience components, our study showed a limited resistance but high recovery of tree growth against fires, and resistance tended to increase northwards but recovery showed the opposite, suggesting a growth-survival tradeoff was exhibited in Dahurian larch trees. With an increasing tree age, regional resistance and resilience showed a decreasing trend, whereas recovery and relative resilience showed an increasing trend. Resilience components were mainly affected by the climatic factors in spring. An increase in moisture availability enhanced resistance, a reduction in diurnal temperature range enhanced recovery, and an increase in mean temperature enhanced resilience and relative resilience. This study reveals that Dahurian larch could be even less favorable when faced with moderate or severe fire events, but a high capacity of recovery enables this species to adapt to the fire-prone condition. Moreover, this work highlights that the resilience of tree growth should be considered to understand tree behaviors and survival strategies of boreal forests following fires across fire-prone regions under future climate warming.     

Landscape-variability of the carbon balance across managed boreal forests

Boreal forests are important global carbon (C) sinks and, therefore, considered as a key element in climate change mitigation policies. However, their actual C sink strength is uncertain and under debate, particularly for the actively managed forests in the boreal regions of Fennoscandia. In this study, we use an extensive set of biometric- and chamber-based C flux data collected in 50 forest stands (ranging from 5 to 211 years) over 3 years (2016–2018) with the aim to explore the variations of the annual net ecosystem production (NEP; i.e., the ecosystem C balance) across a 68 km² managed boreal forest landscape in northern Sweden. Our results demonstrate that net primary production rather than heterotrophic respiration regulated the spatio-temporal variations of NEP across the heterogeneous mosaic of the managed boreal forest landscape. We further find divergent successional patterns of NEP in our managed forests relative to naturally regenerating boreal forests, including (i) a fast recovery of the C sink function within the first decade after harvest due to the rapid establishment of a productive understory layer and (ii) a sustained C sink in old stands (131–211 years). We estimate that the rotation period for optimum C sequestration extends to 138 years, which over multiple rotations results in a long-term C sequestration rate of 86.5 t C ha⁻¹ per rotation. Our study highlights the potential of forest management to maximize C sequestration of boreal forest landscapes and associate climate change mitigation effects by developing strategies that optimize tree biomass production rather than heterotrophic soil C emissions.     

Projected climate change effects on Alberta's boreal forests imply future challenges for oil sands reclamation

Climate change will drive significant changes in vegetation cover and also impact efforts to restore ecosystems that have been disturbed by human activities. Bitumen mining in the Alberta oil sands region of western Canada requires reclamation to “equivalent land capability,” implying establishment of vegetation similar to undisturbed boreal ecosystems. However, there is consensus that this region will be exposed to relatively severe climate warming, causing increased occurrence of drought and wildfire, which threaten the persistence of both natural and reclaimed ecosystems. We used a landscape model, LANDIS‐II, to simulate plant responses to climate change and disturbances, forecasting changes to boreal forests within the oil sands region. Under the most severe climate forcing scenarios (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 8.5) the model projected substantial decreases in forest biomass, with the future forest being dominated by drought‐ and fire‐tolerant species characteristic of parkland or prairie ecosystems. In contrast, less extreme climate forcing scenarios (RCPs 2.6 and 4.5) had relatively minor effects on forest composition and biomass with boreal conifers continuing to dominate the landscape. If the climate continues to change along a trajectory similar to those simulated by climate models for the RCP 8.5 forcing scenario, current reclamation goals to reestablish spruce‐dominated boreal forest will likely be difficult to achieve. Results from scenario modeling studies such as ours, and continued monitoring of change in the boreal forest, will help inform reclamation practices, which could include establishment of species better adapted to warmer and drier conditions.     

Long-term fire frequency variability in the eastern Canadian boreal forest: the influences of climate vs. local factors

The influence of climatic and local nonclimatic factors on the fire regime of the eastern Canadian boreal forest over the last 8000 years is investigated by examining charred particles preserved in four lacustrine deposits. Herein, we compare the distribution of fire-free intervals (FFIs) and the synchronicity of fire events among sites, using Ripley's K -function to determine the extent of the role of local-scale vs. large-scale processes with respect to fire control. Between 8000 and 5800 cal. bp (calibrated years before present) the climatic and ecological conditions were less conducive to fire events than after this date. After 5800 cal. bp , the number of fires per 1000 years (fire frequency) progressively increased, reaching a maximum ca. 3400 cal. bp . There was a sharp decrease in fire frequency during the last 800 years. Between 8000 and 4000 cal. bp , comparable FFIs and synchronous fire episodes were determined for the study sites. During this period, the fire frequency was predominantly controlled by climate. After 4000 cal. bp , two sites displayed independent fire histories (different FFI distributions or asynchronous fire events), underlining the important influence of local factors, including short-term fuel wetness, characteristics of the watershed and landscape connectivity, in determining fire occurrence. We conclude that climatic changes occurred during the last 4000 years that induced a rise in the water table; this may explain the high spatial heterogeneity in fire history. Current and projected global climatic changes may cause similar spatial variability in fire frequency.     

Climate and wildfires in the North American boreal forest

The area burned in the North American boreal forest is controlled by the frequency of mid-tropospheric blocking highs that cause rapid fuel drying. Climate controls the area burned through changing the dynamics of large-scale teleconnection patterns (Pacific Decadal Oscillation/El Niño Southern Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation, PDO/ENSO and AO) that control the frequency of blocking highs over the continent at different time scales. Changes in these teleconnections may be caused by the current global warming. Thus, an increase in temperature alone need not be associated with an increase in area burned in the North American boreal forest. Since the end of the Little Ice Age, the climate has been unusually moist and variable: large fire years have occurred in unusual years, fire frequency has decreased and fire–climate relationships have occurred at interannual to decadal time scales. Prolonged and severe droughts were common in the past and were partly associated with changes in the PDO/ENSO system. Under these conditions, large fire years become common, fire frequency increases and fire–climate relationships occur at decadal to centennial time scales. A suggested return to the drier climate regimes of the past would imply major changes in the temporal dynamics of fire–climate relationships and in area burned, a reduction in the mean age of the forest, and changes in species composition of the North American boreal forest.     

Shift of Conifer Boreal Forest to Lichen–Heath Parkland Caused by Successive Stand Disturbances

In the southern boreal forest (Québec, Canada), tree harvesting is a major disturbance affecting the dominant black spruce (Picea mariana) stands already suffering from naturally recurrent insect and fire disturbances. Although recovery of the spruce forest after an insect infestation or a fire is possible under current site conditions, it is less likely when both types of disturbance occur during a short period of time. The addition of yet another disturbance, such as tree harvesting, can thus have catastrophic consequences. We analyzed the impact of three successive disturbances—tree harvesting, insect infestation, and fire—on the regeneration of boreal spruce–moss forests within a period of approximately 50 years. The spruce forests were harvested in the 1940s and the 1950s. Recovery from the logging consisted of advance regeneration (spruce layers less than 1 m high that were left intact during clear-cuts), which was burned in 1991. The vegetation cover (mostly heath and lichen species) and soil conditions (acidic, nutrient-poor podzolic soils developed from coarse materials) of the postfire sites that we studied were similar. Stand structure and tree regeneration were documented from large quadrats (0.25 ha) using age, size, and tree ring data from postlogged and postfire spruce. At an early stage of development, the growing advance regeneration was damaged by insect defoliators in the late 1970s and the mid-1980s, and several trees died a few years before the 1991 fire. The successive disturbances considerably reduced the number of seed-bearers, leading to the collapse of postfire regeneration and a shift to parkland. Through a successional trajectory far from the expected trend for boreal forests influenced by single disturbance, the shift resulted in the formation of divergent plant communities. The development of divergent communities at the landscape scale is generally overlooked due to their small size. They indicate, however, the weak resilience of boreal forests faced with cascading perturbations, which are likely to increase in intensively logged areas.     

Tropical forests and the changing earth system

Tropical forests are global epicentres of biodiversity and important modulators of the rate of climate change. Recent research on deforestation rates and ecological changes within intact forests, both areas of recent research and debate, are reviewed, and the implications for biodiversity (species loss) and climate change (via the global carbon cycle) addressed. Recent impacts have most likely been: (i) a large source of carbon to the atmosphere, and major loss of species, from deforestation and (ii) a large carbon sink within remaining intact forest, accompanied by accelerating forest dynamism and widespread biodiversity changes. Finally, I look to the future, suggesting that the current carbon sink in intact forests is unlikely to continue, and that the tropical forest biome may even become a large net source of carbon, via one or more of four plausible routes: changing photosynthesis and respiration rates, biodiversity changes in intact forest, widespread forest collapse via drought, and widespread forest collapse via fire. Each of these scenarios risks potentially dangerous positive feedbacks with the climate system that could dramatically accelerate and intensify climate change. Given that continued land-use change alone is already thought to be causing the sixth mass extinction event in Earth's history, should such feedbacks occur, the resulting biodiversity and societal consequences would be even more severe.