A risk assessment for managing non-native parasites

The spread of non-native parasites with the movement of animals is a primary cause of disease emergence worldwide. Such introductions can threaten native biodiversity, hinder conservation efforts and limit the socio-economic development of natural resources. Evaluating the threats from alien parasites can represent a considerable challenge, due to the limited information that often accompanies their introduction. We present a comprehensive modular risk assessment scheme that supports the management of non-native fish parasites in their pre- and post-introduction phases. This scheme addresses some of the shortcomings of current risk analysis, including the risk management of non-notifiable pathogens and impact assessment of parasites following establishment. An initial procedure for hazard identification promotes a rapid assessment of disease risk and prompt imposition of management measures. This is followed by a longer-term assessment of impact that accommodates available and emerging knowledge on the pathogen and its distribution. Consideration is given to ecological and economic consequences of disease at the host, population and fishery levels. Each module provides an easily interpreted output that underpins management responses, ranging from monitoring parasite distribution to their attempted eradication. A final module ensures clear communication of disease risk to relevant stakeholders, using the other modules as a framework. Outputs of this risk assessment will inform the prioritisation of available resources and provides a scientifically robust foundation on which to base practical and proportionate management measures to protect native environments. The scheme presented here was specifically developed for freshwater fisheries in England and Wales, but may be modified for use globally and for the non-native parasite fauna of other taxa.     

A guideline for ecological risk management procedures

A practical guideline for community-level ecological risk management is proposed, with particular emphasis on the mutual interdependencies of the scientific analysis, public consensus building, and an adaptive management. The procedure we recommend spans the screening of potential ecological risks, the involvement of related stakeholders, the conceptual development from the undesired event over assessment endpoints to measures of effect and stress factors, the risk assessment for the no-action case, the planning phase from the public decision to become active and the setting of goals over a specification of monitoring and control methods to an assessment of feasibility and a public approval of the management plan and finally the adaptive management from initiation over continued monitoring to revisions of the plan, if required. The procedure contains several checkpoints, alternative routes, and possibilities to correct previous decisions.     

Nipping aquatic plant invasions in the bud: weed risk assessment and the trade

The importation and sale of ornamental pond and aquarium plants is the most important pathway for the introduction of potential aquatic weeds into and subsequent spread of these within a country. Most current aquatic weeds were at one time deliberately imported for ornamental use. This article discusses a weed risk assessment approach to evaluating new potential weeds. It assesses the potential invasiveness of an aquatic plant based on its habitat versatility, competitive ability, reproductive output and dispersal mechanisms, range of potential impacts, potential distribution and resistance to management activities. The Aquatic Weed Risk Assessment Model (AWRAM) has been used to evaluate potential aquatic weeds in New Zealand, Australia and the USA. A similar approach could be used to guide the management of aquatic weeds in Europe. Banning the importation of highly ranked species effectively keeps biosecurity risks off-shore. Assessment of aquatic plant trade patterns, especially volumes of high-risk species, along with knowledge of current and potential distribution of those species and ease of management, are all factors to be considered when evaluating candidate plants for prevention of sale and distribution. This is a highly effective way of restricting both long-distance dispersal and density of propagules. A cooperative approach involving researchers, policy and trade representatives has been an effective way to achieve regulation of this risk pathway. European initiatives to prevent the distribution of potential aquatic weeds include the preparation of lists of known invasive aquatic species by the European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization (EPPO), with recommendations to member countries to consider measures to prevent their spread (e.g. banning importation of, banning sale and distribution of, and undertaking control programmes against those species). Belgian initiatives include an upcoming Royal Decree concerning the importation, exportation and possession of non-native invasive species, development of codes of conduct with the horticultural sector and prohibiting the sale, purchase and intentional release of these species in the wild. This article reviews these approaches and discusses other species of concern.     

Intertemporal discounting as a risk factor for high BMI: Evidence from Australia, 2008

This paper explores the relationship between intertemporal discounting and body weight, using stated preference measures of intertemporal discounting, and the body mass index (BMI) to represent relative body weight. The empirical analysis uses Australian data obtained in 2008 through the South Australian Health Omnibus Survey. A quantile regression analysis is used to allow the marginal effects of the explanatory variables on BMI to vary across the conditional BMI distribution. It is shown that an indicator of intertemporal discounting elicited from a hypothetical monetary trade-off has a significant positive relationship with BMI. This relationship appears to be stronger in the upper quantiles, but there is insufficient statistical evidence for this difference. Evidence is presented that intertemporal discounting is a risk factor for increased BMI with a magnitude of effect comparable to more commonly recognized risk factors such as income and education. However there is no significant relationship found between BMI and an alternative indicator of intertemporal discounting elicited from trade-offs in health status.     

多尺度滑坡灾害生态风险评价与风险管理——以三峡库区万州-巫山段为例

进行生态风险多尺度综合评价,对环境管理及风险决策具有重要意义。以三峡库区滑坡重点监测县域为例,基于“危险性-脆弱性-潜在损失”三维模型,以随机森林模型评估滑坡危险性,采用景观格局指数表征生态脆弱性,利用生境质量核算潜在生态损失,进行格网、行政、子流域多尺度下的滑坡灾害生态风险评价,提出适合各尺度的风险管理措施,在此基础上选择最适宜尺度并结合研究区实际情况进行验证。结果表明,生态风险等级较高区域集中于长江两岸沿线,三峡库区建设对研究区滑坡生态风险产生较大影响;两两尺度风险分布结果具有一定相似性,而三种尺度共同作用结果又存在一定差异;子流域尺度在保证生态结构完整性的前提下评价结果好于其他两种尺度,更适合三峡库区县域的生态风险评价;研究区东部风险防范类型相对单一,而西部风险防范类型较多,需做到精细化管理。研究增加了多尺度综合评价实例,对今后开展整个三峡库区滑坡生态风险研究奠定一定理论和实践基础。     

东北地区森林资源生态风险评价研究

根据区域生态风险评价的理论和方法体系,对东北地区森林资源进行了生态风险评价．东北林区生态风险问题形成的主要胁迫包括物理胁迫、化学胁迫、生物胁迫和社会胁迫,其权重系数分别为0．30、0．22、0．11和0．37．东北93个林业局中,轻风险占64．4％,中风险占21．2％,重风险占13．3％。严重风险占1．1％,符合偏正态分布．东北区森林生态风险的地域分异明显,靠近长白山区的森林处于轻风险和中风险等级,向西生态风险越来越重,处于重风险和严重风险等级的林业局主要集中在小兴安岭地区．必须加强东北区风险管理和森林景观的修复与重建。     

Application of common predictive habitat techniques for post-border weed risk management

Weed risk assessment has become an accepted methodology for examining the likelihood and consequence of a plant species becoming invasive outside of its native range. Weed risk assessment draws upon biological and ecological information to estimate the likelihood and magnitude of the threats posed by introducing non-indigenous plants. In geographical terms, this has traditionally been understood as within a new country following importation of plant material. However, recent risk assessment development has focused more specifically on intracountry risk posed by already-present invasive plants and is referred to as post-border weed risk management. This form of assessment calls for fine-scale predictions of invasive species habitat suitability. This study applies some of the more popular and widely available habitat prediction models that represent a variety of different statistical approaches (linear regression, logistic regression, Bayesian probability, Classification and Regression Trees, Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production) to a single invasive plant, the vertebrate-dispersed, fleshy fruited European olive ( Olea europaea L.) in southern Australia. The relationships between the dependant ( O. europaea distribution) and independent (soil and climate) variables are used in the models to produce predictive maps for each model. Accuracy was calculated for each model output as well as a combined surface to examine whether recent calls for ensemble modelling of distributions produces improved predictions. Overall, the combined prediction demonstrated superior accuracy compared to any individual model outputs. The combined outputs can be likened to mapped gradations of predicted habitat suitability. The type of output produced in this study should form a critical component of post-border weed risk management but more importantly, the methodology will add to this important discipline.     

Predicting risk of invasion in a Mediterranean island using niche modelling and valuable biota

Invasion by alien species is nowadays considered as one of the major threats to biodiversity. Thus, the identification of the areas exposed to a greater risk of invasion represents a priority for management purpose, especially in presence of habitats worthy of conservation. This paper aims to propose a method to produce a map of risk of invasion, merging together the threat of invasion by invasive plants and the distribution of habitats with high conservation value, on the case study of the Island of Elba (Tuscan Archipelago). We modelled the potential distribution of six particularly harmful invasive plants and merged these distributions into a map of threat of invasion. This map was overlapped to the map of density of Natura2000 habitats, finally obtaining a map of risk of invasion. According to our analyses, the potential distribution of the invasive species resulted highly influenced by human-related factors. The habitats more at risk are those closer to streets and anthropic habitats, which are more likely to be colonized by the invasive species we studied. We identified some rare habitats which are strongly endangered, highlighting that around 20% of the surface of the Island is exposed to some level of risk of invasion.     

Current approaches to cyanotoxin risk assessment and risk management around the globe

Toxic cyanobacteria became more widely recognized as a potential health hazard in the 1990s, and in 1998 the World Health Organization (WHO) first published a provisional Guideline Value of 1 μg L⁻¹ for microcystin-LR in drinking-water. In this publication we compare risk assessment and risk management of toxic cyanobacteria in 17 countries across all five continents. We focus on the three main (oral) exposure vehicles to cyanotoxins: drinking-water, water related recreational and freshwater seafood. Most countries have implemented the provisional WHO Guideline Value, some as legally binding standard, to ensure the distribution of safe drinking-water with respect to microcystins. Regulation, however, also needs to address the possible presence of a wide range of other cyanotoxins and bioactive compounds, for which no guideline values can be derived due to insufficient toxicological data. The presence of microcystins (commonly expressed as microcystin-LR equivalents) may be used as proxy for overall guidance on risk management, but this simplification may miss certain risks, for instance from dissolved fractions of cylindrospermopsin and cyanobacterial neurotoxins. An alternative approach, often taken for risk assessment and management in recreational waters, is to regulate cyanobacterial presence – as cell numbers or biomass – rather than individual toxins. Here, many countries have implemented a two or three tier alert level system with incremental severity. These systems define the levels where responses are switched from Surveillance to Alert and finally to Action Mode and they specify the short-term actions that follow. Surface bloom formation is commonly judged to be a significant risk because of the elevated concentration of microcystins in a scum. Countries have based their derivations of legally binding standards, guideline values, maximally allowed concentrations (or limits named otherwise) on very similar scientific methodology, but underlying assumptions such as bloom duration, average body size and the amount of water consumed while swimming vary according to local circumstances. Furthermore, for toxins with incomplete toxicological data elements of expert judgment become more relevant and this also leads to a larger degree of variation between countries’ thresholds triggering certain actions. Cyanobacterial blooms and their cyanotoxin content are a highly variable phenomenon, largely depending on local conditions, and likely concentrations can be assessed and managed best if the specific conditions of the locality are known and their impact on bloom occurrence are understood. Risk Management Frameworks, such as for example the Water Safety Plan concept of the WHO and the ‘bathing water profile’ of the European Union are suggested to be effective approaches for preventing human exposure by managing toxic cyanobacteria from catchment to consumer for drinking water and at recreational sites.     

基于GIS的大兴安岭森林火险区划

以黑龙江省大兴安岭图强林业局育英林场和奋斗林场为研究区,以GIS技术为支撑,选取植被类型、海拔、坡度、坡向和离居住区远近作为主要林火影响因子,采用因子加权叠置法,对研究区森林火险情况进行了定量评价,将火险等级分为无、低、中、高和极高5类.结果表明,无、低、中、高和极高火险区分别占研究区的0.37%、0.63%、38.67%、58.63%和1.70%,符合正态分布;中及以上火险区占60.33%,说明研究区森林火灾管理任务仍相当繁重;森林火险等级的地域分异明显,中部高四周低,在不同林火影响因子上的分异十分明显;火险等级与1987年的火烧强度具有较强的一致性,说明火险区划结果具有较高的可靠性,可为林业部门进行森林火灾管理提供有价值的参考.     

Inhalation anthrax: dose response and risk analysis

The notion that inhalation of a single Bacillus anthracis spore is fatal has become entrenched nearly to the point of urban legend, in part because of incomplete articulation of the scientific basis for microbial risk assessment, particularly dose-response assessment. Risk analysis (ie, risk assessment, risk communication, risk management) necessitates transparency: distinguishing scientific facts, hypotheses, judgments, biases in interpretations, and potential misinformation. The difficulty in achieving transparency for biothreat risk is magnified by misinformation and poor characterization of both dose-response relationships and the driving mechanisms that cause susceptibility or resistance to disease progression. Regrettably, this entrenchment unnecessarily restricts preparedness planning to a single response scenario: decontaminate until no spores are detectable in air, water, or on surfaces-essentially forcing a zero-tolerance policy inconsistent with the biology of anthrax. We present evidence about inhalation anthrax dose-response relationships, including reports from multiple studies documenting exposures insufficient to cause inhalation anthrax in laboratory animals and humans. The emphasis of the article is clarification about what is known from objective scientific evidence for doses of anthrax spores associated with survival and mortality. From this knowledge base, we discuss the need for future applications of more formal risk analysis processes to guide development of alternative non-zero criteria or standards based on science to inform preparedness planning and other risk management activities.     

The spatial distribution of badgers, setts and latrines: the risk for intra-specific and badger-livestock disease transmission

The spatial distribution of wildlife hosts and the associated environmental distribution of their excretory products are important factors associated with the risk of disease transmission between wildlife and livestock. At a landscape scale, heterogeneous distribution of a wildlife host will create regional hot spots for disease risk, while at the farm level, distributional patterns of wildlife excretory products as well as habitat use are of primary importance to the assessment of disease risk to livestock. In the UK, badgers have been implicated in the transmission of bovine tuberculosis to cattle. In this study, we focus on the spatial and social organization and habitat use of badgers as well as the distributions of their excretions at latrine and sett sites to assess intra- and inter-species (badger–cattle) disease risk. Across the study site, badger latrines and setts were found in prominent clusters, at distances of up to 250 and 200 m respectively. This was partly due to small-scale clustering of latrines around sett sites, so that disease risk may be higher within the vicinity of setts. The clustered distribution suggests that sites of high risk for TB transmission may be localised within farms. Exclusion of cattle from the few sett and latrine sites within their grazing pasture is therefore likely to provide an effective way of reducing the risk of disease transmission. We also found evidence of social sub-division within badger social groups based on differences in the use of main and outlier setts. This may contribute to localised clusters of infection within the badger population, resulting in heterogeneous patterns of environmental disease risk to the wider host community. A greater understanding of variation in host behaviour and its implications for patterns of disease will allow the development of more targeted and effective management strategies for wildlife disease in group-living hosts.     

A Critical Review of the Traditional Methodology of Cost-Benefit Analysis and a Proposed Alternative

“Risk management” is essential to the decision-making process that prescribes regulations for protecting human health. As a comprehensive decision-making approach, risk management encompasses risk assessment, risk perception, economic factors, and their respective uncertainties. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) has long been the preferred methodology for evaluating the economic factors associated with such regulations. Within this context, CBA confirms whether or not the “benefit” of a given regulatory option is greater than its “cost.” This article proposes an alternative CBA methodology whose guiding concept is the “optimization” of outcomes for the stakeholders in regulations that aim to protect human health. This article further proposes evaluation criteria for CBA and critiques the traditional and alternative variants against this standard, ultimately to demonstrate the superiority of the latter.     

区域生态风险管理研究进展

近20a来,随着生态风险评价研究的不断深化,区域生态风险评价的理论和方法日臻完善,与此紧密相关的生态风险管理日益受到了广泛关注.生态风险管理具有基于监控的反馈机制、风险受害者参与、程序灵活非线性化、关注成本效益等共同点.总结了国内外生态风险管理的研究进展,发现近年来生态风险管理的研究多是基于生态风险评价的结果,针对不同的风险类型和等级采取不同的管理措施.国内现有的研究对灾害风险管理的体系、机制建设较为成熟,但区域生态风险管理的机制研究尤其是预警和防范方面研究尚不成熟.基于此,构建了基于风险来临前、风险到来时和风险过后的区域生态风险管理的基本框架,研究结果对生态风险管理理论的构建和实践应用具有重要的意义.     

A modular assessment tool for managing introduced fishes according to risks of species and their populations,and impacts of management actions

A modular assessment scheme for assisting the risk management of introduced fishes is described, with its recent application to England and Wales demonstrated. The initial module prioritises the introduced fishes in the risk assessment area according to their potential invasiveness and current distribution. The second module then assesses populations of the prioritised species in relation to the character of their receiving waters and the potential risks posed by their population in that circumstance; the output is a suggested management action for each population. The third module evaluates the suggested management action in relation to its potential impacts in the environment and how these impacts may be mitigated. The final module assesses the estimated cumulative cost of the selected management action relative to an alternative action. To demonstrate its potential value for managing extant populations of introduced fish, three eradication case-studies from England were assessed retrospectively using the scheme. This revealed eradication of two topmouth gudgeon Pseudorasbora parva populations was commensurate with their levels of ecological risk in the environment. By contrast, initial assessment of the eradication of a feral population of fathead minnow Pimephales promelas suggested control and containment was the commensurate management action due to a relatively low risk of natural dispersal. Application of the scheme elsewhere in the world and to other faunal groups should enable more objective decision-making in management programmes and enhance conservation outcomes.     

城市生态风险管理关键问题与研究进展

我国目前正处于社会经济转型和城市化进程加快时期,随着城市化发展和城市人居环境的变化,城市生态风险受到越来越多关注。在综述国内外城市生态风险管理研究进展,总结风险源与受体特点和风险评价方法的基础上,结合城市生态风险管理的需求,明确了城市生态风险的管理目标,将管理目标系统归纳划分为控制目标、调控目标和规划目标3个层次;在解析城市生态风险管理特点的基础上,结合风险管理目标从弹性力、动态管理性和空间异质性3个方面对生态风险管理措施与方案进行了总结分析,并进一步探讨了风险管理保障机制。从生态风险管理目标制定、构建城市生态系统特点的风险管理体系及其管理机制等方面提出了建议与展望,以期推动我国城市生态风险管理的发展。