Life Cycle–based Assessment of Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Almond Production,Part II: Uncertainty Analysis through Sensitivity Analysis and Scenario Testing

This is the second part of a two‐article series examining California almond production. The part I article describes development of the analytical framework and life cycle–based model and presents typical energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for California almonds. This part II article builds on this by exploring uncertainty in the life cycle model through sensitivity and scenario analysis, and by examining temporary carbon storage in the orchard. Sensitivity analysis shows life cycle GHG emissions are most affected by biomass fate and utilization, followed by nitrous oxide emissions rates from orchard soils. Model sensitivity for net energy consumption is highest for irrigation system parameters, followed by biomass fate and utilization. Scenario analysis shows utilization of orchard biomass for electricity production has the greatest potential effect, assuming displacement methods are used for co‐product allocation. Results of the scenario analysis show that 1 kilogram (kg) of almond kernel and associated co‐products are estimated to cause between ?3.12 to 2.67 kg carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂‐eq) emissions and consume between 27.6 to 52.5 megajoules (MJ) of energy. Co‐product displacement credits lead to avoided emissions of between ?1.33 to 2.45 kg CO₂‐eq and between ?0.08 to 13.7 MJ of avoided energy use, leading to net results of ?1.39 to 3.99 kg CO₂‐eq and 15.3 to 52.6 MJ per kg kernel (net results are calculated by subtracting co‐product credits from the results for almonds and co‐products). Temporary carbon storage in orchard biomass and soils is accounted for by using alternative global warming characterization factors and leads to a 14% to 18% reduction in CO₂‐eq emissions. Future studies of orchards and other perennial cropping systems should likely consider temporary carbon storage.     

Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction From Rigid Thermal Insulation Use in Buildings

Thermal insulation is a strategic product for reducing energy consumption and related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the building sector. This study examines from a life cycle perspective the changes in GHG emissions resulting from the use of two rigid thermal insulation products manufactured and installed from 1971 to 2025. GHG emissions related to insulation production and fugitive releases of blowing agents are modeled and compared with GHG savings from reduced heating loads in North America, Europe, and Asia. Implementation of alternative blowing agents has greatly improved the carbon dioxide 100‐year equivalent (CO₂‐eq) emission performance of thermal insulation. The net average CO₂‐eq savings to emissions ratio for current extruded polystyrene (XPS) and polyisocyanurate (PIR) insulation studied was 48:1, with a broad range from 3 to 1,800. Older insulation products manufactured with chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) can result in net cumulative GHG emissions. Reduction of CO₂‐eq emissions from buildings is governed by complex interactions between insulation thickness and placement, climate, fuel type, and heating system efficiencies. A series of charts mapping both emissions payback and net savings demonstrate the interactions between these factors and provide a basis for specific policy recommendations to guide effective insulation investments and placement.     

Life-Cycle Assessment and Temporal Distributions of Emissions: Developing a Fleet-Based Analysis

Although the product-centered focus of life-cycle assessment has been one of its strengths, this analytical perspective embeds assumptions that may conflict with the realities of environmental problems. This article demonstrates, through a series of mathematical derivations, that all the products in use, rather than a single product, frequently should be the appropriate unit of analysis. Such a "fleet-centered" approach supplies a richer perspective on the comparative emissions burdens generated by alternative products, and it eliminates certain simplifying assumptions imposed upon the analysis by a product-centered approach.
A sample numerical case, examining the comparative emissions of steel-intensive and aluminum-intensive automobiles, is presented to contrast the results of the two approaches. The fleet-centered analysis shows that the "crossover time" (i.e., the time required before the fuel economy benefits of the lighter aluminum vehicle offset the energy intensity of the processes used to manufacture the aluminum in the first place) can be dramatically longer than that predicted by a product-centered life-cycle assessment.
The fleet-centered perspective explicitly introduces the notion of time as a critical element of comparative life-cycle assessments and raises important questions about the role of the analyst in selecting the appropriate time horizon for analysis. Moreover, with the introduction of time as an appropriate dimension to life-cycle assessment, the influences of effects distributed over time can be more naturally and consistently treated.     

Greenhouse Gas Emission Estimates of U.S. Dietary Choices and Food Loss

Dietary behavioral choices have a strong effect on the environmental impact associated with the food system. Here, we consider the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with production of food that is lost at the retail and consumer level, as well as the potential effects on GHG emissions of a shift to dietary recommendations. Calculations are based on the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) food availability data set and literature meta‐analysis of emission factors for various food types. Food losses contribute 1.4 kilograms (kg) carbon dioxide equivalents (CO₂‐eq) capita^?1day^?1 (28%) to the overall carbon footprint of the average U.S. diet; in total, this is equivalent to the emissions of 33 million average passenger vehicles annually. Whereas beef accounts for only 4% of the retail food supply by weight, it represents 36% of the diet‐related GHG emissions. An iso‐caloric shift from the current average U.S. diet to USDA dietary recommendations could result in a 12% increase in diet‐related GHG emissions, whereas a shift that includes a decrease in caloric intake, based on the needs of the population (assuming moderate activity), results in a small (1%) decrease in diet‐related GHG emissions. These findings emphasize the need to consider environmental costs of food production in formulating recommended food patterns.     

Life Cycle Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Marine Fuels: A Case Study of Saudi Crude Oil versus Natural Gas in Different Global Regions

The understanding of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions dimension in discussing the future of marine fuels makes it important to advance the current life cycle assessment (LCA) practice in this context. Previous LCA studies of marine fuels rely on general LCA models such as GREET and JEC well‐to‐wheels study. These models do not fully capture the various methane losses in the fuel supply chain. The primary goal of this LCA study is to compare the GHG emissions of heavy fuel oil and marine gas oil produced from Saudi crude oil to liquefied natural gas (LNG) in different global regions. A sensitivity analysis was performed to show how results may vary with non‐Saudi crudes. A secondary goal was to advance LCA of marine fuels by utilizing, for the first time, a set of bottom‐up engineering models that enable detailed analysis of specific oil and gas projects worldwide. The results show particular cases where LNG use in marine applications has a significant countereffect in terms of climate change compared to conventional marine fuels produced from a low‐carbon‐intensity crude oil. When the results are calculated based on a 20‐ versus 100‐year methane global warming potential, LNG appears noncompetitive for climate impact in marine applications.     

Impact of Power Generation Mix on Life Cycle Assessment and Carbon Footprint Greenhouse Gas Results

The mix of electricity consumed in any stage in the life cycle of a product, process, or industrial sector has a significant effect on the associated inventory of emissions and environmental impacts because of large differences in the power generation method used. Fossil‐fuel‐fired or nuclear‐centralized steam generators; large‐scale and small‐scale hydroelectric power; and renewable options, such as geothermal, wind, and solar power, each have a unique set of issues that can change the results of a life cycle assessment. This article shows greenhouse gas emissions estimates for electricity purchase for different scenarios using U.S. average electricity mix, state mixes, state mixes including imports, and a sector‐specific mix to show how different these results can be. We find that greenhouse gases for certain sectors and scenarios can change by more than 100%. Knowing this, practitioners should exercise caution or at least account for the uncertainty associated with mix choice.     

Improvements in Life Cycle Energy Efficiency and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Corn-Ethanol

Corn-ethanol production is expanding rapidly with the adoption of improved technologies to increase energy efficiency and profitability in crop production, ethanol conversion, and coproduct use. Life cycle assessment can evaluate the impact of these changes on environmental performance metrics. To this end, we analyzed the life cycles of corn-ethanol systems accounting for the majority of U.S. capacity to estimate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy efficiencies on the basis of updated values for crop management and yields, biorefinery operation, and coproduct utilization. Direct-effect GHG emissions were estimated to be equivalent to a 48% to 59% reduction compared to gasoline, a twofold to threefold greater reduction than reported in previous studies. Ethanol-to-petroleum output/input ratios ranged from 10:1 to 13:1 but could be increased to 19:1 if farmers adopted high-yield progressive crop and soil management practices. An advanced closed-loop biorefinery with anaerobic digestion reduced GHG emissions by 67% and increased the net energy ratio to 2.2, from 1.5 to 1.8 for the most common systems. Such improved technologies have the potential to move corn-ethanol closer to the hypothetical performance of cellulosic biofuels. Likewise, the larger GHG reductions estimated in this study allow a greater buffer for inclusion of indirect-effect land-use change emissions while still meeting regulatory GHG reduction targets. These results suggest that corn-ethanol systems have substantially greater potential to mitigate GHG emissions and reduce dependence on imported petroleum for transportation fuels than reported previously.     

Carbon Footprint Assessment of a Paperback Book

This study presents the carbon footprint of a paperback book for which the cover and inside papers were produced in the United States and printed in Canada. The choice of paper mills for both cover and page papers was based on criteria such as percentage of recycled content in the pulp mix, transport distances (pulp mill to paper mill, paper mill to print), and technologies. The cradle‐to‐gate assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions follows recognized guidelines for carbon footprint assessment. The results show that the production of 400,000 books, mainly distributed in North America, would generate 1,084 tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂‐eq), or 2.71 kilograms (kg) CO₂‐eq per book. The impact of using deinked market pulp (DMP) is shown here to be detrimental, accounting for 54% of total GHG emissions and being 32% higher than reference virgin Kraft pulp. This supports findings that DMP mill GHG emissions strongly correlate with the carbon intensity of the power grid supplying the pulp mill and that virgin Kraft mills that reuse wood residue and black liquor to produce heat and electricity can achieve lower GHG emissions per tonne of pulp produced. Although contrary to common thinking, this is consistent with the Paper Task Force 2002 conclusion for office paper (the closest paper grade to writing paper or fine paper) (EDF 2002a). To get a cradle‐to‐grave perspective, three different end‐of‐life (EOL) scenarios were analyzed, all of which included a harvested wood product (HWP) carbon storage benefit for 25 years. The GHG offset concept within the context of the book editor's “carbon‐neutral” paper claims is also discussed.     

Effects of E-Commerce on Greenhouse Gas Emissions: A Case Study of Grocery Home Delivery in Finland

In this article, we present a literature review of the general and environmental effects of e-commerce in various parts of the demand-supply chain. These are further translated into effects on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the food production and consumption system. The literature study revealed many opportunities for e-commerce to reduce GHG emissions in the food production and consumption system. Some possibly negative effects were also identified. Electronic grocery shopping (e-grocery) home delivery service was chosen as the subject of a case study because of its direct and indirect potential for reducing the GHG emissions in the food production and consumption system.
GHG emission reduction potential through the implementation of various e-grocery home delivery strategies was quantified. Depending on the home delivery model used, it is possible to reduce the GHG emissions generated by grocery shopping by 18% to 87% compared with the situation in which household members go to the store themselves. We estimate that the maximum theoretical potential of e-grocery home delivery service for reducing the GHG emissions of Finland is roughly 0.3% to 1.3%; however, the current and estimated future market potential is much smaller, because the estimated market share of e-grocery services is only 10% by 2005. Narrowing the gap between the theoretical and the actual potential requires a model that would simultaneously provide additional value to the consumer and be profitable to companies. To be able to achieve significant reductions in GHG emissions, system-level innovations and changes are required. Further research is needed before conclusions can be reached as to whether e-commerce and e-grocery are useful tools in that respect.     

Increasing Precision in Greenhouse Gas Accounting Using Real‐Time Emission Factors

For many companies, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with their purchased and consumed electricity form one of the largest contributions to the GHG emissions that result from their activities. Currently, hourly variations in electricity grid emissions are not considered by standard GHG accounting protocols, which apply a national grid emission factor (EF), potentially resulting in erred estimates for the GHG emissions. In this study, a method is developed that calculates GHG emissions based on real‐time data, and it is shown that the use of hourly electricity grid EFs can significantly improve the accuracy of the GHG emissions that are attributed to the purchased and consumed electricity of a company. A model analysis for the electricity delivered to the Spanish grid in 2012 reveals that, for companies operating during the day, GHG emissions calculated by the real‐time method are estimated to be up to 5% higher (and in some special cases up to 9% higher) than the emissions calculated by the conventional method in which a national grid EF is applied, whereas for companies operating during nightly hours, GHG emissions are estimated to be as low as 3% below the GHG emissions determined by the conventional method. A significant error can therefore occur in the organizational carbon footprint (CF) of a company and, consequently, also in the product CF. It is recommended that hourly EFs be developed for other countries and power grids.     

An Exploration of the Relationship between Socioeconomic and Well‐Being Variables and Household Greenhouse Gas Emissions

This research reports on a multivariate analysis that examined the relationship between direct greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and socioeconomic and well‐being variables for 1,920 respondents living in Halifax Regional Municipality, Nova Scotia, Canada, using results from the Halifax Space‐Time Activity Research Project. The unique data set allows us to estimate direct GHG emissions with an unprecedented level of specificity based on household energy use survey data and geographic positioning system–verified personal travel data. Of the variables analyzed, household size, income, community zone, age, and marital status are all statistically significant predictors of direct GHG emissions. Birthplace, ethnicity, educational attainment, perceptions of health, life satisfaction, job satisfaction, happiness, volunteering, or community belonging did not seem to matter. In addition, we examined whether those reporting energy‐efficient behaviors had lower GHG emissions. No significant differences were discovered among the groups analyzed, supporting a growing body of research indicating a disconnect between environmental attitudes and behaviors and environmental impact. Among the predictor variables, those reporting to be married, young, low income, and living in households with more people have correspondingly lower direct GHG emissions than other categories in respective groupings. Our finding that respondents with lifestyles that generate higher GHG emissions did not report to be healthier, happier, or more connected to their communities suggest that individuals can experience similar degrees of well‐being regardless of the amount of GHG emissions associated with his or her respective lifestyle.     

Bottom-Up Life-Cycle:Assessment of Product Consumption in Belgium

The present study shows the results and methodology applied to the study of the identification of priority product categories for Belgian product and environmental policy. The main goal of the study was to gather insight into the consumption of products in Belgium and their related life-cycle environmental impacts. The conclusions of this project on the product categories with major environmental contributions can be used to start up working groups involving stakeholders and initiate detailed product studies on the impact reduction potential that could be achieved by means of implementing product policy measures. Several ways of assessing product category environmental impacts and the effects of policy measures have been developed; 'bottom-up' or 'market-life-cycle assessment' is one of these, and we tried this approach for the situation in Belgium. Simplified life-cycle assessment (LCA) studies were conducted for representative average products within each function-based product category and the results were multiplied with market statistics. Using this approach, we found that building construction, building occupancy, and personal transport are among the major categories for Belgium. The major drawbacks of this approach are the system-level limitations and the existence of a broad spectrum of nonharmonized methods and datasets from which a sound preliminary selection had to be made. Consequently, the retrieval and selection of data was very time consuming and due to this we had to accept some major limitations in the study design. Nevertheless, the study has contributed to the development of a methodology for market-LCA and elements that can be picked up in currently ongoing and future work. The study concludes that to improve the feasibility and acceptance of this type of study there is a need for the development of a harmonized methodology on market-LCA, policy-relevant impact indicators as well as a harmonized and stakeholder-agreed-upon LCA databases.     

Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Air‐Source Heat Pump and Innovative Ground‐Source Air Heat Pump in a Cold Climate

This article compares climate impacts of two heat‐pump systems for domestic heating, that is, energy consumption for space heating of a residential building. Using a life cycle approach, the study compared the energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of direct electric heating, a conventional air‐source heat pump, and a novel ground‐source air heat pump innovated by a citizen user, to assess whether such user innovation holds benefit. The energy use of the heat pumps was modeled at six temperature intervals based on duration curves of outdoor temperature. Additionally, two heat pump end‐of‐life scenarios were analyzed. Probabilistic uncertainty analysis was applied using a Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicated that, in ideal conditions, that is, assuming perfect air mixing, the conventional air‐source heat pump's emissions were over 40% lower and the ground‐air heat pump's emissions over 70% lower than in the case of direct electric heating. Although proper handling of the refrigerant is important, total leakage from the retirement of the heat‐pump appliance would increase GHG emissions by just 10%. According to the sensitivity analysis, the most influential input parameters are the emission factor related to electricity and the amount of electricity used for heating.     

The Greenhouse Gas Footprint of China's Food System: An Analysis of Recent Trends and Future Scenarios

Food chain systems (FCSs), which begin in agricultural production and end in consumption and waste disposal, play a significant role in China's rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This article uses scenario analysis to show China's potential trajectories to a low‐carbon FCS. Between 1996 and 2010, the GHG footprint of China's FCSs increased from 1,308 to 1,618 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO₂‐eq), although the emissions intensity of all food categories, except for aquatic food, recorded steep declines. We project three scenarios to 2050 based on historical trends and plausible shifts in policies and environmental conditions: reference scenario; technology improvement scenario; and low GHG emissions scenario. The reference scenario is based on existing trends and exhibits a large growth in GHG emissions, increasing from 1,585 Mt CO₂‐eq in 2010 to 2,505 Mt CO₂‐eq in 2050. In the technology improvement scenario, emissions growth is driven by rising food demand, but that growth will be counterbalanced by gains in agricultural technology, causing GHG emissions to fall to 1,413 Mt CO₂‐eq by 2050. Combining technology improvement with the shift to healthier dietary patterns, GHG emissions in the low GHG emissions scenario will decline to 946 Mt CO₂‐eq in 2050, a drop of 41.5% compared with the level in 2010. We argue that these are realistic projections and are indeed indicative of China's overall strategy for low‐carbon development. Improving agricultural technology and shifting to a more balanced diet could significantly reduce the GHG footprint of China's FCSs. Furthermore, the transition to a low‐carbon FCS has potential cobenefits for land sustainability and public health.     

Mapping the Influence of Food Waste in Food Packaging Environmental Performance Assessments

Scrutiny of food packaging environmental impacts has led to a variety of sustainability directives, but has largely focused on the direct impacts of materials. A growing awareness of the impacts of food waste warrants a recalibration of packaging environmental assessment to include the indirect effects due to influences on food waste. In this study, we model 13 food products and their typical packaging formats through a consistent life cycle assessment framework in order to demonstrate the effect of food waste on overall system greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and cumulative energy demand (CED). Starting with food waste rate estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, we calculate the effect on GHG emissions and CED of a hypothetical 10% decrease in food waste rate. This defines a limit for increases in packaging impacts from innovative packaging solutions that will still lead to net system environmental benefits. The ratio of food production to packaging production environmental impact provides a guide to predicting food waste effects on system performance. Based on a survey of the food LCA literature, this ratio for GHG emissions ranges from 0.06 (wine example) to 780 (beef example). High ratios with foods such as cereals, dairy, seafood, and meats suggest greater opportunity for net impact reductions through packaging‐based food waste reduction innovations. While this study is not intended to provide definitive LCAs for the product/package systems modeled, it does illustrate both the importance of considering food waste when comparing packaging alternatives, and the potential for using packaging to reduce overall system impacts by reducing food waste.     

Evaluation of a Regional Approach to Standards for Plug‐in Battery Electric Vehicles in Future Light‐Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Regulations

Representing the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions attributable to plug‐in electric vehicles (PEV) in vehicle GHG emissions regulations is complex because of spatial and temporal variation in fueling sources and vehicle use. Previous work has shown that the environmental performance of PEVs significantly varies depending on the characteristics of the electricity grid and how the vehicle is driven. This article evaluates the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) GHG emissions accounting methodology in current and future standards for new electrified vehicles. The current approach employed by the EPA in their 2017–2025 model year light‐duty vehicle GHG regulation is compared with an accounting mechanism where the actual regional sales of PEVs, and the regional electricity emission factor in the year sold, are used to determine vehicle compliance value. Changes to the electricity grid over time and regional vehicle sales are included in the modeling efforts. A projection of a future GHG regulation past the 2017–2025 rule is used to observe the effect of such a regional regulation. The results showed that the complexity involved in tracking and accounting for regional PEV sales will not dramatically increase the effectiveness of the regulations to capture PEV electricity‐related GHG emissions in the absence of a major policy shift. A discussion of the feasibility and effectiveness of a regional standard for PEVs, and notable examples of region‐specific regulations instated in past energy policies, is also addressed.     

The response of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance to rising [CO2]: mechanisms and environmental interactions

This review summarizes current understanding of the mechanisms that underlie the response of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance to elevated carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), and examines how downstream processes and environmental constraints modulate these two fundamental responses. The results from free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments were summarized via meta-analysis to quantify the mean responses of stomatal and photosynthetic parameters to elevated [CO2]. Elevation of [CO2] in FACE experiments reduced stomatal conductance by 22%, yet, this reduction was not associated with a similar change in stomatal density. Elevated [CO2] stimulated light-saturated photosynthesis (Asat) in C3 plants grown in FACE by an average of 31%. However, the magnitude of the increase in Asat varied with functional group and environment. Functional groups with ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase (Rubisco)-limited photosynthesis at elevated [CO2] had greater potential for increases in Asat than those where photosynthesis became ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate (RubP)-limited at elevated [CO2]. Both nitrogen supply and sink capacity modulated the response of photosynthesis to elevated [CO2] through their impact on the acclimation of carboxylation capacity. Increased understanding of the molecular and biochemical mechanisms by which plants respond to elevated [CO2], and the feedback of environmental factors upon them, will improve our ability to predict ecosystem responses to rising [CO2] and increase our potential to adapt crops and managed ecosystems to future atmospheric [CO2].     

Cytochrome bd-I in Escherichia coli is less sensitive than cytochromes bd-II or bo′' to inhibition by the carbon monoxide-releasing molecule,CORM-3: N-acetylcysteine reduces CO-RM uptake and inhibition of respiration

Background: CO-releasing molecules (CO-RMs) are potential therapeutic agents, able to deliver CO – a critical gasotransmitter – in biological environments. CO-RMs are also effective antimicrobial agents; although the mechanisms of action are poorly defined, haem-containing terminal oxidases are primary targets. Nevertheless, it is clear from several studies that the effects of CO-RMs on biological systems are frequently not adequately explained by the release of CO: CO-RMs are generally more potent inhibitors than is CO gas and other effects of the molecules are evident. Methods: Because sensitivity to CO-RMs cannot be predicted by sensitivity to CO gas, we assess the differential susceptibilities of strains, each expressing only one of the three terminal oxidases of E. coli — cytochrome bd-I, cytochrome bd-II and cytochrome bo′, to inhibition by CORM-3. We present the first sensitive measurement of the oxygen affinity of cytochrome bd-II (K_m 0.24 μM) employing globin deoxygenation. Finally, we investigate the way(s) in which thiol compounds abolish the inhibitory effects of CORM-2 and CORM-3 on respiration, growth and viability, a phenomenon that is well documented, but poorly understood. Results: We show that a strain expressing cytochrome bd-I as the sole oxidase is least susceptible to inhibition by CORM-3 in its growth and respiration of both intact cells and membranes. Growth studies show that cytochrome bd-II has similar CORM-3 sensitivity to cytochrome bo′. Cytochromes bo′ and bd-II also have considerably lower affinities for oxygen than bd-I. We show that the ability of N-acetylcysteine to abrogate the toxic effects of CO-RMs is not attributable to its antioxidant effects, or prevention of CO targeting to the oxidases, but may be largely due to the inhibition of CO-RM uptake by bacterial cells. Conclusions: A strain expressing cytochrome bd-I as the sole terminal oxidase is least susceptible to inhibition by CORM-3. N-acetylcysteine is a potent inhibitor of CO-RM uptake by E. coli. General significance: Rational design and exploitation of CO-RMs require a fundamental understanding of their activity. CO and CO-RMs have multifaceted effects on mammalian and microbial cells; here we show that the quinol oxidases of E. coli are differentially sensitive to CORM-3. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: Oxygen Binding and Sensing Proteins.