A dynamic model for tuberculosis transmission and optimal treatment strategies in South Korea

We have developed a dynamic model for tuberculosis (TB) transmission in South Korea using a SEIR model with the time-dependent parameters. South Korea ranked the highest TB incidence among members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in 2005 yr. The observed data from the Korea Center for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) shows a certain rise of active-TB incidence individuals after 2001 yr. Because of this sudden jump, we have considered two different periods for best fitting the model: prior to 2001 yr and posterior to 2001 yr. The least-squares fitting has been used for estimating model parameters to the observed data of active-TB incidence. Our model agrees well with the observed data. In this work, we also propose optimal treatment strategies of TB model in South Korea for the future. We have considered three control mechanisms representing distancing, case finding and case holding efforts. Optimal control programs have been proposed in various scenarios, in order to minimize the number of exposed and infectious individuals and the cost of implementing the control treatment.     

Integrating Community-Based Interventions to Reverse the Convergent TB/HIV Epidemics in Rural South Africa

The WHO recommends integrating interventions to address the devastating TB/HIV co-epidemics in South Africa, yet integration has been poorly implemented and TB/HIV control efforts need strengthening. Identifying infected individuals is particularly difficult in rural settings. We used mathematical modeling to predict the impact of community-based, integrated TB/HIV case finding and additional control strategies on South Africa’s TB/HIV epidemics. We developed a model incorporating TB and HIV transmission to evaluate the effectiveness of integrating TB and HIV interventions in rural South Africa over 10 years. We modeled the impact of a novel screening program that integrates case finding for TB and HIV in the community, comparing it to status quo and recommended TB/HIV control strategies, including GeneXpert, MDR-TB treatment decentralization, improved first-line TB treatment cure rate, isoniazid preventive therapy, and expanded ART. Combining recommended interventions averted 27% of expected TB cases (95% CI 18–40%) 18% HIV (95% CI 13–24%), 60% MDR-TB (95% CI 34–83%), 69% XDR-TB (95% CI 34–90%), and 16% TB/HIV deaths (95% CI 12–29). Supplementing these interventions with annual community-based TB/HIV case finding averted a further 17% of TB cases (44% total; 95% CI 31–56%), 5% HIV (23% total; 95% CI 17–29%), 8% MDR-TB (68% total; 95% CI 40–88%), 4% XDR-TB (73% total; 95% CI 38–91%), and 8% TB/HIV deaths (24% total; 95% CI 16–39%). In addition to increasing screening frequency, we found that improving TB symptom questionnaire sensitivity, second-line TB treatment delays, default before initiating TB treatment or ART, and second-line TB drug efficacy were significantly associated with even greater reductions in TB and HIV cases. TB/HIV epidemics in South Africa were most effectively curtailed by simultaneously implementing interventions that integrated community-based TB/HIV control strategies and targeted drug-resistant TB. Strengthening existing TB and HIV treatment programs is needed to further reduce disease incidence.     

Modeling the impact of early therapy for latent tuberculosis patients and its optimal control analysis

Effective tuberculosis (TB) control depends on case findings to discover infectious cases, investigation of contacts of those with TB, as well as appropriate treatment. Adherence and successful completion of the treatment are equally important. Unfortunately, due to a number of personal, psychosocial, economic, medical, and health service factors, a significant number of TB patients become irregular and default from treatment. In this paper, a mathematical model is developed to assess the impact of early therapy for latent TB and non-adherence on controlling TB transmission dynamics. Equilibrium states of the model are determined and their local stability is examined. With the aid of the center manifold theory, it is established that the model undergoes a backward bifurcation. Qualitative mathematical analysis of the model suggests that a high level of latent tuberculosis case findings, coupled with a decrease of defaulting rate, may be effective in controlling TB transmission dynamics in the community. Population-level effects of organized campaigns to improve early therapy and to guarantee successful completion of each treatment are evaluated through numerical simulations and presented in support of the analytical results.     

The infectiousness of tuberculosis patients coinfected with HIV

Background

The current understanding of airborne tuberculosis (TB) transmission is based on classic 1950s studies in which guinea pigs were exposed to air from a tuberculosis ward. Recently we recreated this model in Lima, Perú, and in this paper we report the use of molecular fingerprinting to investigate patient infectiousness in the current era of HIV infection and multidrug-resistant (MDR) TB.

Methods and Findings

All air from a mechanically ventilated negative-pressure HIV-TB ward was exhausted over guinea pigs housed in an airborne transmission study facility on the roof. Animals had monthly tuberculin skin tests, and positive reactors were removed for autopsy and organ culture for M. tuberculosis. Temporal exposure patterns, drug susceptibility testing, and DNA fingerprinting of patient and animal TB strains defined infectious TB patients. Relative patient infectiousness was calculated using the Wells-Riley model of airborne infection. Over 505 study days there were 118 ward admissions of 97 HIV-positive pulmonary TB patients. Of 292 exposed guinea pigs, 144 had evidence of TB disease; a further 30 were tuberculin skin test positive only. There was marked variability in patient infectiousness; only 8.5% of 118 ward admissions by TB patients were shown by DNA fingerprinting to have caused 98% of the 125 characterised cases of secondary animal TB. 90% of TB transmission occurred from inadequately treated MDR TB patients. Three highly infectious MDR TB patients produced 226, 52, and 40 airborne infectious units (quanta) per hour.

Conclusions

A small number of inadequately treated MDR TB patients coinfected with HIV were responsible for almost all TB transmission, and some patients were highly infectious. This result highlights the importance of rapid TB drug-susceptibility testing to allow prompt initiation of effective treatment, and environmental control measures to reduce ongoing TB transmission in crowded health care settings. TB infection control must be prioritized in order to prevent health care facilities from disseminating the drug-resistant TB that they are attempting to treat.     

Evaluation of Infectivity,Virulence and Transmission of FDMV Field Strains of Serotypes O and A Isolated In 2010 from Outbreaks in the Republic of Korea

Since the early 2000s outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) have been described in several previously FMD-free Asian nations, including the Republic of Korea (South Korea). One outbreak with FMD virus (FDMV) serotype A and two with serotype O occurred in South Korea in 2010/2011. The causative viruses belonged to lineages that had been spreading in South East Asia, far East and East Asia since 2009 and presented a great threat to the countries in that region. Most FMDV strains infect ruminants and pigs, as it happened during the outbreaks of FMDV serotype O in South Korea. Contrastingly, the strain of serotype A affected only ruminants. Based upon these findings, the intention of the work described in the current report was to characterize and compare the infectivity, virulence and transmission of both strains under laboratory conditions in cattle and pigs, by direct inoculation and contact exposure. As expected, FMDV serotype O was highly virulent in both cattle and swine by contact exposure and direct inoculation. Surprisingly, FMDV serotype A was highly virulent in swine, but was less infectious in cattle by contact exposure to infected swine or cattle. Interestingly, similar quantities of aerosolized FMDV RNA were detected during experiments with viruses of serotypes O and A. Specific virus-host interaction of A/SKR/2010 could affect the transmission of this strain to cattle, and this may explain in part the limited spread of the serotype A epizootic.     

Unstable vivax malaria in Korea

Korean vivax malaria had been prevalent for longtime throughout the country with low endemicity. As a result of the Korean war (1950-1953), malaria became epidemic. In 1959-1969 when the National Malaria Eradication Service (NMES) was implemented, malaria rates declined, with low endemicity in the south-west and south plain areas and high endemic foci in north Kyongsangbuk-do (province) and north and east Kyonggi-do. NMES activities greatly contributed in accelerating the control and later eradication of malaria. The Republic of Korea (South Korea) was designated malaria free in 1979. However, malaria re-emerged in 1993 and an outbreak occurred in north Kyonggi-do and north-west Kangwon-do (in and/or near the Demilitarized Zone, DMZ), bordering North Korea. It has been postulated that most of the malaria cases resulted from bites of sporozoite-infected females of An. sinensis dispersed from North Korea across the DMZ. Judging from epidemiological and socio-ecological factors, vivax malaria would not be possible to be endemic in South Korea. Historical data show that vivax malaria in Korea is a typical unstable malaria. Epidemics may occur when environmental, socio-economical, and/or political factors change in favor to malaria transmission, and when such factors change to normal conditions malaria rates become low and may disappear. Passive case detection is a most feasible and recommendable control measure against the unstable vivax malaria in Korea in cost-effect point of view.     

Evolution of Extensively Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis over Four Decades: Whole Genome Sequencing and Dating Analysis of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Isolates from KwaZulu-Natal

BackgroundThe continued advance of antibiotic resistance threatens the treatment and control of many infectious diseases. This is exemplified by the largest global outbreak of extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis (TB) identified in Tugela Ferry, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, in 2005 that continues today. It is unclear whether the emergence of XDR-TB in KwaZulu-Natal was due to recent inadequacies in TB control in conjunction with HIV or other factors. Understanding the origins of drug resistance in this fatal outbreak of XDR will inform the control and prevention of drug-resistant TB in other settings. In this study, we used whole genome sequencing and dating analysis to determine if XDR-TB had emerged recently or had ancient antecedents.ConclusionsIn the first whole genome-based analysis of the emergence of drug resistance among clinical isolates of M. tuberculosis, we show that the ancestral precursor of the LAM4 XDR outbreak strain in Tugela Ferry gained mutations to first-line drugs at the beginning of the antibiotic era. Subsequent accumulation of stepwise resistance mutations, occurring over decades and prior to the explosion of HIV in this region, yielded MDR and XDR, permitting the emergence of compensatory mutations. Our results suggest that drug-resistant strains circulating today reflect not only vulnerabilities of current TB control efforts but also those that date back 50 y. In drug-resistant TB, isoniazid resistance was overwhelmingly the initial resistance mutation to be acquired, which would not be detected by current rapid molecular diagnostics employed in South Africa that assess only rifampicin resistance.     

Equilibria of an Epidemic Game with Piecewise Linear Social Distancing Cost

Around the world, infectious disease epidemics continue to threaten people’s health. When epidemics strike, we often respond by changing our behaviors to reduce our risk of infection. This response is sometimes called “social distancing.” Since behavior changes can be costly, we would like to know the optimal social distancing behavior. But the benefits of changes in behavior depend on the course of the epidemic, which itself depends on our behaviors. Differential population game theory provides a method for resolving this circular dependence. Here, I present the analysis of a special case of the differential SIR epidemic population game with social distancing when the relative infection rate is linear, but bounded below by zero. Equilibrium solutions are constructed in closed-form for an open-ended epidemic. Constructions are also provided for epidemics that are stopped by the deployment of a vaccination that becomes available a fixed-time after the start of the epidemic. This can be used to anticipate a window of opportunity during which mass vaccination can significantly reduce the cost of an epidemic.     

Genotyping of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Mycobacterium tuberculosis</Emphasis> using whole genome sequencing

Tuberculosis (TB) is considered one of the most serious infectious diseases worldwide. Effective control of tuberculosis infection involves multiple steps, such as reliable detection, treatment, an epidemiological control as a part of case management, and further surveillance and monitoring of TB spread in the human population. Due to the accelerating advances in molecular biology, especially in DNA sequencing, in the past decade, the application of these methods has become crucial for TB evolution studies, differentiation of Mycobacterium tuberculosis genotypes, and their distribution. Currently, several molecular genetic methods are available. The oldest typing methods (e.g., IS6110-RFLP, spoligotyping, and MIRU-VNTR) can discover the chain of transmission to the patient. Currently, whole genome sequencing facilitates is furthermore able to identify the source of infection, the transmission trays among individuals sharing the same isolate, as well as determination of the TB evolution and its resistance to antituberculotic agents. It is obvious that this technique will become a new gold standard in genotyping methods in tuberculosis molecular epidemiological studies. In this article, molecular genetic typing methods with a special focus on whole genome sequencing and data management are reviewed.     

Evaluating the impact of the nationwide public–private mix (PPM) program for tuberculosis under National Health Insurance in South Korea: A difference in differences analysis

BackgroundPublic–private mix (PPM) programs on tuberculosis (TB) have a critical role in engaging and integrating the private sector into the national TB control efforts in order to meet the End TB Strategy targets. South Korea’s PPM program can provide important insights on the long-term impact and policy gaps in the development and expansion of PPM as a nationwide program.Methods and findingsHealthcare is privatized in South Korea, and a majority (80.3% in 2009) of TB patients sought care in the private sector. Since 2009, South Korea has rapidly expanded its PPM program coverage under the National Health Insurance (NHI) scheme as a formal national program with dedicated PPM nurses managing TB patients in both the private and public sectors. Using the difference in differences (DID) analytic framework, we compared relative changes in TB treatment outcomes—treatment success (TS) and loss to follow-up (LTFU)—in the private and public sector between the 2009 and 2014 TB patient cohorts. Propensity score matching (PSM) using the kernel method was done to adjust for imbalances in the covariates between the 2 population cohorts. The 2009 cohort included 6,195 (63.0% male, 37.0% female; mean age: 42.1) and 27,396 (56.1% male, 43.9% female; mean age: 45.7) TB patients in the public and private sectors, respectively. The 2014 cohort included 2,803 (63.2% male, 36.8% female; mean age: 50.1) and 29,988 (56.5% male, 43.5% female; mean age: 54.7) patients. In both the private and public sectors, the proportion of patients with transfer history decreased (public: 23.8% to 21.7% and private: 20.8% to 17.6%), and bacteriological confirmed disease increased (public: 48.9% to 62.3% and private: 48.8% to 58.1%) in 2014 compared to 2009. After expanding nationwide PPM, absolute TS rates improved by 9.10% (87.5% to 93.4%) and by 13.6% (from 70.3% to 83.9%) in the public and private sectors. Relative to the public, the private saw 4.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.9% to 5.3%, p-value < 0.001) and −8.7% (95% CI −9.7% to −7.7%, p-value <0.001) higher rates of improvement in TS and reduction in LTFU. Treatment outcomes did not improve in patients who experienced at least 1 transfer during their TB treatment. Study limitations include non-longitudinal nature of our original dataset, inability to assess the regional disparities, and verify PPM program’s impact on TB mortality.ConclusionsWe found that the nationwide scale-up of the PPM program was associated with improvements in TB treatment outcomes in the private sector in South Korea. Centralized financial governance and regulatory mechanisms were integral in facilitating the integration of highly diverse South Korean private sector into the national TB control program and scaling up of the PPM intervention nationwide. However, TB care gaps continued to exist for patients who transferred at least once during their treatment. These programmatic gaps may be improved through reducing administrative hurdles and making programmatic amendments that can help facilitate management TB patients between institutions and healthcare sectors, as well as across administrative regions.

Sarah Yu and co-workers study population-level provision of tuberculosis care and outcomes in South Korea.     

High Prevalence of Tuberculosis and Insufficient Case Detection in Two Communities in the Western Cape,South Africa

Background

In South Africa the estimated incidence of all forms of tuberculosis (TB) for 2008 was 960/100000. It was reported that all South Africans lived in districts with Directly Observed Therapy, Short-course. However, the 2011 WHO report indicated South Africa as the only country in the world where the TB incidence is still rising.

Aims

To report the results of a TB prevalence survey and to determine the speed of TB case detection in the study communities.

Methods

In 2005 a TB prevalence survey was done to inform the sample size calculation for the ZAMSTAR (Zambia South Africa TB and AIDS Reduction) trial. It was a cluster survey with clustering by enumeration area; all households were visited within enumeration areas and informed consent obtained from eligible adults. A questionnaire was completed and a sputum sample collected from each adult. Samples were inoculated on both liquid mycobacterium growth indicator tube (MGIT) and Löwenstein-Jensen media. A follow-up HIV prevalence survey was done in 2007.

Results

In Community A, the adjusted prevalence of culture positive TB was 32/1000 (95%CI 25–41/1000) and of smear positive TB 8/1000 (95%CI 5–13/1000). In Community B, the adjusted prevalence of culture positive TB was 24/1000 (95%CI 17–32/1000) and of smear positive TB 9/1000 (95%CI 6–15/1000). In Community A the patient diagnostic rate was 0.38/person-year while in community B it was 0.30/person-year. In both communities the adjusted HIV prevalence was 25% (19–30%).

Discussion

In both communities a higher TB prevalence than national estimates and a low patient diagnostic rate was calculated, suggesting that cases are not detected at a sufficient rate to interrupt transmission. These findings may contribute to the rising TB incidence in South Africa. The TB epidemic should therefore be addressed rapidly and effectively, especially in the presence of the concurrently high HIV prevalence.     

Reemerging vivax malaria: changing patterns of annual incidence and control programs in the Republic of Korea

Changing patterns of the reemerging Plasmodium vivax malaria in the Republic of Korea (South Korea) during the period 1993 to 2005 are briefly analyzed with emphasis on the control measures used and the effects of meteorological and entomological factors. Data were obtained from the Communicable Diseases Monthly Reports published by the Korea Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and webpages of World Health Organization and United Nations. Meteorological data of Kangwon-do (Province) were obtained from local weather stations. After its first reemergence in 1993, the prevalence of malaria increased exponentially, peaking in 2000, and then decreased. In total, 21,419 cases were reported between 1993 and 2005 in South Korea. In North Korea, a total of 916,225 cases were reported between 1999 and 2004. The occurrence of malaria in high risk areas of South Korea was significantly (P > 0.05) correlated with the mosquito population but not with temperature and rainfall. Control programs, including early case detection and treatment, mass chemoprophylaxis of soldiers, and international financial aids to North Korea for malaria control have been instituted. The situation of the reemerging vivax malaria in the Republic of Korea is remarkably improving during the recent years, at least in part, due to the control activities undertaken in South and North Korea.     

Effect of climate change on the potential distribution of the common cutworm (Spodoptera litura) in South Korea

Spodoptera litura (Fabricius) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), known as common cutworm, is a worldwide pest that causes severe damage to various crops and vegetables in South Korea. In this study, we predicted the potential distribution of S. litura in South Korea in a climate change scenario by applying species distribution modeling. We used the CLIMEX software as a main tool and determined optimal parameter values to simulate the current distribution of S. litura in Asia. We then used these parameter values to predict the species' future distribution in South Korea. As a result, we prepared maps indicating areas with suitable climate for S. litura and showed that these areas gradually increased as a result of climate change. Approximately 98% of the areas in South Korea were predicted to have a favorable climate for S. litura in 2100; 63.2% of the area in South Korea is currently favorable. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to predict the potential distribution of S. litura in South Korea, and it provides the basic data necessary to establish an optimal control strategy of this species.     

Nutrition, diabetes and tuberculosis in the epidemiological transition

Background

Diabetes prevalence and body mass index reflect the nutritional profile of populations but have opposing effects on tuberculosis risk. Interactions between diabetes and BMI could help or hinder TB control in growing, aging, urbanizing populations.

Methods and Findings

We compiled data describing temporal changes in BMI, diabetes prevalence and population age structure in rural and urban areas for men and women in countries with high (India) and low (Rep. Korea) TB burdens. Using published data on the risks of TB associated with these factors, we calculated expected changes in TB incidence between 1998 and 2008. In India, TB incidence cases would have increased (28% from 1.7 m to 2.1 m) faster than population size (22%) because of adverse effects of aging, urbanization, changing BMI and rising diabetes prevalence, generating an increase in TB incidence per capita of 5.5% in 10 years. In India, general nutritional improvements were offset by a fall in BMI among the majority of men who live in rural areas. The growing prevalence of diabetes in India increased the annual number of TB cases in people with diabetes by 46% between 1998 and 2008. In Korea, by contrast, the number of TB cases increased more slowly (6.1% from 40,200 to 42,800) than population size (14%) because of positive effects of urbanization, increasing BMI and falling diabetes prevalence. Consequently, TB incidence per capita fell by 7.8% in 10 years. Rapid population aging was the most significant adverse effect in Korea.

Conclusions

Nutritional and demographic changes had stronger adverse effects on TB in high-incidence India than in lower-incidence Korea. The unfavourable effects in both countries can be overcome by early drug treatment but, if left unchecked, could lead to an accelerating rise in TB incidence. The prevention and management of risk factors for TB would reinforce TB control by chemotherapy.     

Molecular epidemiology of norovirus in South Korea

Norovirus is a major cause of viral gastroenteritis and a common cause of foodborne and waterborne outbreaks. Norovirus outbreaks are responsible for economic losses, most notably to the public health and food industry field. Norovirus has characteristics such as low infectious dose, prolonged shedding period, strong stability, great diversity, and frequent genome mutations. Besides these characteristics, they are known for rapid and extensive spread in closed settings such as hospitals, hotels, and schools. Norovirus is well known as a major agent of food-poisoning in diverse settings in South Korea. For these reasons, nationwide surveillance for norovirus is active in both clinical and environmental settings in South Korea. Recent studies have reported the emergence of variants and novel recombinants of norovirus. In this review, we summarized studies on the molecular epidemiology and nationwide surveillance of norovirus in South Korea. This review will provide information for vaccine development and prediction of new emerging variants of norovirus in South Korea. [BMB Reports 2015; 48(2): 61-67]     

The Burden of MDR/XDR Tuberculosis in Coastal Plains Population of China

BackgroundWe conducted a first baseline survey in Jilin Province of China to determine the proportion of drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB), and to analyze risk factors associated with the emergence of drug-resistance.Conclusions/SignificanceJilin Province remains one of the highest-burden areas in China for drug-resistant TB. The higher number of MDR-TB among new cases suggested that the transmission of drug-resistant strains in Jilin is an urgent problem in the MDR-TB control and prevention system of Jilin Province. Improving the treatment compliance of TB patients and the quality of medical care in public health institutions is urgently needed.     

Shared Air: A Renewed Focus on Ventilation for the Prevention of Tuberculosis Transmission

Background

Despite an improvement in the overall TB cure rate from 40–74% between 1995 and 2011, TB incidence in South Africa continues to increase. The epidemic is notably disquieting in schools because the vulnerable population is compelled to be present. Older learners (age 15–19) are at particular risk given a smear-positive rate of 427 per 100,000 per year and the significant amount of time they spend indoors. High schools are therefore important locations for potential TB infection and thus prevention efforts.

Methods and Findings

Using portable carbon dioxide monitors, we measured CO₂ in classrooms under non-steady state conditions. The threshold for tuberculosis transmission was estimated using a carbon dioxide-based risk equation. We determined a critical rebreathed fraction of carbon dioxide () of 1·6%, which correlates with an indoor CO₂ concentration of 1000 ppm. These values correspond with a ventilation rate of 8·6 l/s per person or 12 air exchanges per hour (ACH) for standard classrooms of 180 m³.

Conclusions

Given the high smear positive rate of high-school adolescents in South Africa, the proposal to achieve CO₂ levels of 1000ppm through natural ventilation (in the amount 12 ACH) will not only help achieve WHO guidelines for providing children with healthy indoor environments, it will also provide a low-cost intervention for helping control the TB epidemic in areas of high prevalence.     

Spatial Dependency of Tuberculosis Incidence in Taiwan

Tuberculosis (TB) disease can be caused by either recent transmission from infectious patients or reactivation of remote latent infection. Spatial dependency (correlation between nearby geographic areas) in tuberculosis incidence is a signature for chains of recent transmission with geographic diffusion. To understand the contribution of recent transmission in the TB endemic in Taiwan, where reactivation has been assumed to be the predominant mode of pathogenesis, we used spatial regression analysis to examine whether there was spatial dependency between the TB incidence in each township and in its neighbors. A total of 90,661 TB cases from 349 townships in 2003–2008 were included in this analysis. After adjusting for the effects of confounding socioeconomic variables, including the percentages of aboriginals and average household income, the results show that the spatial lag parameter remains positively significant (0.43, p<0.001), which indicates that the TB incidences of neighboring townships had an effect on the TB incidence in each township. Townships with substantial spatial spillover effects were mainly located in the northern, western and eastern parts of Taiwan. Spatial dependency implies that recent transmission plays a significant role in the pathogenesis of TB in Taiwan. Therefore, in addition to the current focus on improving the cure rate under directly observed therapy programs, more resource need to be allocated to active case finding in order to break the chain of transmission.     

Epidemic levels of drug resistant tuberculosis (MDR and XDR-TB) in a high HIV prevalence setting in Khayelitsha, South Africa

Background

Although multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is emerging as a significant threat to tuberculosis control in high HIV prevalence countries such as South Africa, limited data is available on the burden of drug resistant tuberculosis and any association with HIV in such settings. We conducted a community-based representative survey to assess the MDR-TB burden in Khayelitsha, an urban township in South Africa with high HIV and TB prevalence.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A cross-sectional survey was conducted among adult clinic attendees suspected for pulmonary tuberculosis in two large primary care clinics, together constituting 50% of the tuberculosis burden in Khayelitsha. Drug susceptibility testing (DST) for isoniazid and rifampicin was conducted using a line probe assay on positive sputum cultures, and with culture-based DST for first and second-line drugs. Between May and November 2008, culture positive pulmonary tuberculosis was diagnosed in 271 new and 264 previously treated tuberculosis suspects (sample enriched with previously treated cases). Among those with known HIV status, 55% and 71% were HIV infected respectively. MDR-TB was diagnosed in 3.3% and 7.7% of new and previously treated cases. These figures equate to an estimated case notification rate for MDR-TB of 51/100,000/year, with new cases constituting 55% of the estimated MDR-TB burden. HIV infection was not significantly associated with rifampicin resistance in multivariate analyses.

Conclusions/Significance

There is an extremely high burden of MDR-TB in this setting, most likely representing ongoing transmission. These data highlight the need to diagnose drug resistance among all TB cases, and for innovative models of case detection and treatment for MDR-TB, in order to interrupt transmission and control this emerging epidemic.