Land use and life history limit migration capacity of eastern tree species

Aim

Temperate tree species overwhelmingly responded to past climate change by migrating rather than adapting. However, past climate change did not have the modern human‐driven patterns of land use and fragmentation, raising questions of whether tree migration will still be able to keep pace with climate. Previous studies using coarse‐grained or randomized landscapes suggest that dispersal may be delayed but have not identified outright barriers to migration. Here, we use real‐world fragmented landscapes at the scale of forest stands to assess the migration capacity of eastern tree species.

Location

Eastern U.S.A.

Time period

Present day to 2100.

Major taxa studied

Eastern U.S. trees.

Methods

We simulated dispersal over 100 years for 15 species common to the mid‐Atlantic region and that are predicted to gain suitable habitat in the northeast. In contrast to previous studies, we incorporated greater realism with species‐specific life histories and real‐world spatial configurations of anthropogenic land use. We used simulation results to calculate dispersal rates for each species and related these to predicted rates of species habitat shift.

Results

Our simulations suggest that land use in the human‐dominated east‐coast corridor slows species dispersal rates by 12–40% and may prevent keeping pace with climate. Species most impacted by anthropogenic land use were often those with the highest predicted species habitat shifts. We identified two major dispersal barriers, the Washington DC metropolitan area and central NY, that severely impeded tree migration.

Main conclusions

Patterns of anthropogenic land use not only slowed migration but also resulted in effective barriers to dispersal. These impacts were exacerbated by tree life histories, such as long ages to maturity and narrow dispersal kernels. Without intervention, the migration lags predicted here may lead to loss in biodiversity and ecosystem functions as current forest species decline, and may contribute to formation of novel communities.     

Predicting the Potential Future Distribution of Four Tree Species in Ohio Using Current Habitat Availability and Climatic Forcing

Weinvestigated the effect of habitat loss on the ability of trees to shift in distribution across a landscape dominated by agriculture. The potential distribution shifts of four tree species (Diospyros virginiana, Oxydendron arboreum, Pinus virginiana, Quercus falcata var. falcata) whose northern distribution limits fall in the southern third of Ohio were used to assess possible distribution shift scenarios as a result of global warming. Our predictions derive from the results of simulations using (a) forest inventory based estimates of current distribution and abundance of target species; (b) a satellite-based estimate of forest habitat availability; and (c) a tree migration model (SHIFT). The current distribution and abundance of trees was estimated using USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory Analysis data and distribution maps from the late 1960s; pre-European settlement forest–nonforest maps were used to represent the fully forested condition for calibration and comparison. Habitat-availability estimates in Ohio were estimated using classified Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data from 1994. Tree abundance, forest availability and migration were modeled using a 1-km² pixel size. Forest availability was estimated as the proportion of forested TM pixels within each cell. The probability of a migrating species colonizing an unoccupied cell is modeled as a function of forest availability and distance to occupied cells. The results of the migration models suggest that the species studied are capable of colonizing virtually any forested location within Ohio over the next 100 years if climatic controls over the current distribution that may currently inhibit northward movement are relaxed. The contiguous distribution of these species, however, is not likely to shift more than 10 km during the next century regardless of the magnitude of the climate change. Examining the sensitivity of our simulations by varying critical model attributes, we found that whereas the variables controlling the amount of long-distance dispersal have strong effects on migration rates in the fully forested 1800 situation, they have significantly lesser effects on projections of future migration into highly fragmented forests. The low forest availability that characterizes much of the current Ohio landscape, along with the low likelihood of long distance dispersal, result in potential distribution shifts that are concentrated within the principally forested corridors in southeastern Ohio. We propose that in contrast to the past, future tree migrations are likely to be spatially and temporally correlated as a result of large climatic forcing and channelization through limited regions of available habitat. With respect to the management of biodiversity, this result suggests that it may be very difficult to discern plant migrations of native forest species owing to exceedingly slow rates of movement. Received 19 September 2000; Accepted 2 March 2001.     

Lessons Learned While Integrating Habitat,Dispersal, Disturbance,and Life-History Traits into Species Habitat Models Under Climate Change

We present an approach to modeling potential climate-driven changes in habitat for tree and bird species in the eastern United States. First, we took an empirical-statistical modeling approach, using randomForest, with species abundance data from national inventories combined with soil, climate, and landscape variables, to build abundance-based habitat models for 134 tree and 147 bird species. We produced lists of species for which suitable habitat tends to increase, decrease, or stay the same for any region. Independent assessments of trends of large trees versus seedlings across the eastern U.S. show that 37 of 40 species in common under both studies are currently trending as modeled. We developed a framework, ModFacs, in which we used the literature to assign default modification factor scores for species characteristics that cannot be readily assessed in such models, including 12 disturbance factors (for example, drought, fire, insect pests), nine biological factors (for example, dispersal, shade tolerance), and assessment scores of novel climates, long-distance extrapolations, and output variability by climate model and emission scenario. We also used a spatially explicit cellular model, SHIFT, to calculate colonization potentials for some species, based on their abundance, historic dispersal distances, and the fragmented nature of the landscape. By combining results from the three efforts, we can create projections of potential climate change impacts over the next 100 years or so. Here we emphasize some of the lessons we have learned over 16 years in hopes that they may help guide future experiments, modeling efforts, and management.     

Estimating plant migration rates under habitat loss and fragmentation

Changes in the global environment are modifying the geographical locations of habitats suitable for plant growth. The capacity of plants to migrate to sites of suitable environmental quality will strongly influence future distributions of plant diversity. However, it is not well understood how rates of plant migration are influenced by the habitat loss and habitat fragmentation that characterise contemporary landscapes. In this study we develop a model that can predict migration rates in both intact landscapes (potential migration rate) and in fragmented landscapes (realised migration rates). Migration rates in fragmented landscapes might be slower for many reasons. In this study we focus on two, non‐exclusive reasons. First, the processes that move seeds may break down in fragmented landscapes causing seeds to be dispersed shorter distances. Second, in fragmented landscapes some proportion of seeds will not be deposited in habitats suitable for recruitment. We describe the breakdown of dispersal processes as a competing risk between the factors influencing dispersal in intact landscapes and the factors that may disrupt dispersal processes in fragmented landscapes. We show how the parameters that influence dispersal in fragmented landscapes can be estimated, and how these estimates can be used to forecast migration rates using an integrodifference equation (IDE). The forecasts of the IDE described the effects of reduced dispersal distances adequately. However, the IDE produced biased estimates of the effects of a reduction in plant habitat on migration rates. Model analyses showed that, although we can expect realised migration rates to be lower than potential migration rates, we can also expect the sensitivity of migration rate to habitat loss to vary. In addition, simulations showed that the qualitative nature of the responses of migration rate to habitat loss were variable – some model species responded non‐linearly to habitat loss, others responded linearly. While our method provides guidelines for empirical data collection and model parameterisation, we recognise that obtaining these data will be challenging.     

Seed dispersal and seedling establishment of Sarracenia purpurea (Sarraceniaceae)

Plant ecologists continue to grapple with Reid's paradox, the observation that dispersal distances of most herbs and trees are too limited to account for their recolonization of northern latitudes following glacial recession. As global climate changes and natural habitats become increasingly fragmented, understanding patterns of seed dispersal and the potential for long-distance colonization takes on new importance. We studied the dispersal and establishment of the northern pitcher plant Sarracenia purpurea, which grows commonly in isolated bogs throughout Canada and eastern North America. Median dispersal distance of S. purpurea is only 5 cm, which is insufficient to explain its occurrence throughout formerly glaciated regions of North America. Establishment probability of seeds in the field is approximately 5%, and juveniles are normally found clustered around adult plants. The large-scale population genetic structure of this species can be accounted for by rare long-distance dispersal events, but its predictable occurrence in isolated habitats requires additional explanation. Reid's paradox remains an open question, and predicting long-range colonization into fragmented habitats by species with limited dispersal ability is a novel challenge.     

Molecular signatures of Pleistocene sea-level changes that affected connectivity among freshwater shrimp in Indo-Australian waters

A major paradigm in evolutionary biology asserts that global climate change during the Pleistocene often led to rapid and extensive diversification in numerous taxa. Recent phylogenetic data suggest that past climatic oscillations may have promoted long-distance marine dispersal in some freshwater crustacea from the Indo-Australian Archipelago (IAA). Whether this pattern is common, and whether similar processes are acting on diversification below the species level is unknown. We used nuclear and mitochondrial molecular variation in a freshwater-dependent decapod crustacean (Macrobrachium rosenbergii), sampled widely from the IAA, to assess the impact of Pleistocene sea-level changes on lineage diversification in this species. Fitting of an isolation with migration model enabled us to reject ongoing migration among lineages, and results indicate that isolation among both mainland-mainland and mainland-island lineages arose during the mid-Pleistocene. Our data suggest a scenario of widespread marine dispersal during Pleistocene glacial maxima (in support of the 'Pleistocene marine dispersal hypothesis') when sea levels were low, and geographical distances between fresh watersheds were greatly reduced, followed by increased isolation as sea levels subsequently rose.     

Could the tree diversity pattern in Europe be generated by postglacial dispersal limitation?

The relative importance of contemporary climate and history as controls of geographical diversity patterns is intensely debated. A key example is the controversy over the extent to which temperate tree distributions and diversity patterns reflect postglacial dispersal limitation. Here, we focus on Central and Northern Europe, and show that recent estimates of tree migration rates < 100 m year⁻¹ imply that many species have probably not reached equilibrium with climate in this region. We then demonstrate that geographical accessibility from glacial refuges explains 78% of the geographical variation in the region's tree diversity and is a much stronger diversity predictor than climate. Finally, we show that realistic estimates of migration rates can be derived from the observed tree diversity pattern by assuming it to be purely dispersal driven. In conclusion, the tree diversity pattern in Central and Northern Europe could, to a large extent, be a result of postglacial dispersal limitation.     

Modelling effects of habitat fragmentation on the ability of trees to respond to climatic warming

The ability of trees to migrate in response to climatic warming was simulated under various conditions of habitat availability. The model uses Holocene tree migration rates to approximate maximum migration rates in a forested landscape. Habitat availability and local population size was varied systematically under two dispersal and colonization models. These dispersal models varied in the likelihood of long-distance dispersal events. The first model used a negative exponential function that severely limited the probability of long-distance dispersal. The results of this model indicate that migration rate could decline an order of magnitude where the habitat availability is reduced from 80 to 20% of the matrix. The second model, using an inverse power function, carried a higher probability of long-distance dispersal events. The results from this model predict relatively small declines in migration rates when habitat availability is reduced to 50% of the simulation matrix. Below 50% habitat availability, mean migration rate was similar to the negative exponential model. These results predict a failure of many trees to respond to future climatic change through range expansion.     

Upper range limit establishment after wildfire of an obligate-seeding montane forest tree fails to keep pace with 20th century warming

Aims How species respond to climate change at local scales will depend on how edaphic and biological characteristics interact with species physiological limits and traits such as dispersal. Obligate seeders, those species that depend on fire for recruitment, have few and episodic opportunities to track a changing climate envelope. In such cases, long-distance seed dispersal will be necessary to take advantage of rare recruitment opportunities. We examine recruitment patterns and seedling growth below, at and above the timberline of an obligate-seeding Australian montane forest tree (Eucalyptus delegatensis) after stand-replacing fire, and place these changes in the context of regional warming.Methods We use two methods to detect whether E. delegatensis can establish and persist above the timberline after stand-replacing wildfire in montane forests in south-east Australia. First, we examine establishment patterns by using belt transects at six sites to quantify how changes in post-fire recruit density with increasing distance above the timberline seven years post-fire. Second, to determine whether dispersal or physiological constraints determine post-fire establishment patterns, we transplanted seedlings and saplings into bare ground above (100 m elevation), at, and below (50 m elevation) timberline 18-months after fire. We monitored seedling growth and survival for one growing season.Important findings There was minimal upslope migration of the species after fire with most saplings observed near seed-bearing timberline trees, with only occasional outpost saplings. Transplanted seedlings and saplings survived equally well across one growing season when planted above existing timberlines, relative to saplings at or below the timberline. Seedling and sapling growth rates also did not differ across these location, although seedlings grew at much faster rates than saplings. These findings suggest that upslope growing season conditions are unlikely to limit initial range expansion of trees after fire. Instead, it is more likely that seed traits governing dispersal modulate responses to environmental gradients, and global change more generally.     

A spatially interactive simulation of climate change, harvesting, wind, and tree species migration and projected changes to forest composition and biomass in northern Wisconsin, USA

In the coming century, forecast climate changes caused by increasing greenhouse gases may produce dramatic shifts in tree species distributions and the rates at which individual tree species sequester carbon or release carbon back to the atmosphere. The species composition and carbon storage capacity of northern Wisconsin (USA) forests are expected to change significantly as a result. Projected temperature changes are relatively large (up to a 5.8°C increase in mean annual temperature) and these forests encompass a broad ecotone that may be particularly sensitive to climate change. Our objective was to estimate the combined effects of climate change, common disturbances, and species migrations on regional forests using spatially interactive simulations. Multiple scenarios were simulated for 200 years to estimate aboveground live biomass and tree species composition. We used a spatially interactive forest landscape model (LANDIS‐II) that includes individual tree species, biomass accumulation and decomposition, windthrow, harvesting, and seed dispersal. We used data from two global circulation models, the Hadley Climate Centre (version 2) and the Canadian Climate Center (version 1) to generate transient growth and decomposition parameters for 23 species. The two climate change scenarios were compared with a control scenario of continuing current climate conditions. The results demonstrate how important spatially interactive processes will affect the aboveground live biomass and species composition of northern Wisconsin forests. Forest composition, including species richness, is strongly affected by harvesting, windthrow, and climate change, although five northern species (Abies balsamea, Betula papyrifera, Picea glauca, Pinus banksiana, P. resinosa) are lost in both climate scenarios regardless of disturbance scenario. Changes in aboveground live biomass over time are nonlinear and vary among ecoregions. Aboveground live biomass will be significantly reduced because of species dispersal and migration limitations. The expected shift towards southern oaks and hickory is delayed because of seed dispersal limitations.     

Not across the North Pole: plant migration in the Arctic

? The vascular plant flora of 66 arctic islands was studied to determine whether the islands have been occupied by random long-distance dispersal (LDD) or in a highly structured northward migration pattern via intervening islands as stepping-stones. ? A maximum parsimonious migration model minimizing dispersal distances of 1256 vascular plant taxa was calculated in the framework of network analysis. ? Plant dispersal is not stochastic in the Arctic at the global scale. Inferred mean dispersal distances of the plants occurring on arctic islands are c. 580 km (median 460 km). A LDD across the North Pole could not be inferred in the model and species may be recruited mainly from the nearest mainland or islands. At smaller scales, among adjacent islands, dispersal of vascular plants may be incomplete. Arctic islands do not yet appearto be saturated with species. ? The results suggest that changes in biodiversity in Arctic islands can be more easily predicted at the global scale than at the local scale. Because islands are not yet saturated with species, new colonizations may not necessarily be linked to climate change.     

Habitat patch size alters the importance of dispersal for species diversity in an experimental freshwater community

Increased dispersal of individuals among discrete habitat patches should increase the average number of species present in each local habitat patch. However, experimental studies have found variable effects of dispersal on local species richness. Priority effects, predators, and habitat heterogeneity have been proposed as mechanisms that limit the effect of dispersal on species richness. However, the size of a habitat patch could affect how dispersal regulates the number of species able to persist. We investigated whether habitat size interacted with dispersal rate to affect the number of species present in local habitats. We hypothesized that increased dispersal rates would positively affect local species richness more in small habitats than in large habitats, because rare species would be protected from demographic extinction. To test the interaction between dispersal rate and habitat size, we factorially manipulated the size of experimental ponds and dispersal rates, using a model community of freshwater zooplankton. We found that high‐dispersal rates enhanced local species richness in small experimental ponds, but had no effect in large experimental ponds. Our results suggest that there is a trade‐off between patch connectivity (a mediator of dispersal rates) and patch size, providing context for understanding the variability observed in dispersal effects among natural communities, as well as for developing conservation and management plans in an increasingly fragmented world.     

Modelling the impact of colonisation on genetic diversity and differentiation of forest trees: interaction of life cycle,pollen flow and seed long-distance dispersal

It was shown previously that the long lifespan and juvenile phase of trees strongly attenuate founder effects during colonisation in a diffusive dispersal model. However, this model yielded too slow a colonisation rate in comparison with palynological data for temperate forest trees. Since rare long-distance dispersal events have been shown to increase considerably colonisation rates in population dynamics models, we investigate here the impact of long-distance dispersal on within-population diversity (H(S)) and among-population differentiation (F(ST)) during the colonisation process. We use a stochastic approach and compare several dispersal strategies, ranging from very rare dispersal events of large amplitude to more frequent events of smaller amplitude. Using a simulation approach, which takes into account tree life-history traits, we show that long-distance dispersal events increase colonisation speed, and yield much larger founder effects in comparison with the diffusive model. The two models that include intermediate- and long-distance dispersal events show stronger deviations from experimental F(ST) values during and at the end of the colonisation process than the model with more frequent events of smaller dispersal variance. Furthermore, the introduction of a high level of pollen flow has a much more limited impact on models that include long-distance dispersal than on a diffusive dispersal model. The relatively high H(S) values that were obtained in all models are discussed according to the assumed mutation rate and effective population size. This study is an example of how observed genetic data can provide additional evidence on the best demographic model for a given species or group of species.     

Field Evidence of Colonisation by Holm Oak,at the Northern Margin of Its Distribution Range,during the Anthropocene Period

A major unknown in the context of current climate change is the extent to which populations of slowly migrating species, such as trees, will track shifting climates. Niche modelling generally predicts substantial northward shifts of suitable habitats. There is therefore an urgent need for field-based forest observations to corroborate these extensive model simulations. We used forest inventory data providing presence/absence information from just over a century (1880–2010) for a Mediterranean species (Quercus ilex) in forests located at the northern edge of its distribution. The main goals of the study were (i) to investigate whether this species has actually spread into new areas during the Anthropocene period and (ii) to provide a direct estimation of tree migration rate. We show that Q. ilex has colonised substantial new areas over the last century. However, the maximum rate of colonisation by this species (22 to 57 m/year) was much slower than predicted by the models and necessary to follow changes in habitat suitability since 1880. Our results suggest that the rates of tree dispersion and establishment may also be too low to track shifts in bioclimatic envelopes in the future. The inclusion of contemporary, rather than historical, migration rates into models should improve our understanding of the response of species to climate change.     

Comparison of contemporary mating patterns in continuous and fragmented Eucalyptus globulus native forests

While habitat fragmentation is a central issue in forest conservation studies in the face of broad-scale anthropogenic changes to the environment, its effects on contemporary mating patterns remain controversial. This is partly because of the inherent variation in mating patterns which may exist within species and the fact that few studies have replication at the landscape level. To study the effect of forest fragmentation on contemporary mating patterns, including effective pollen dispersal, we compared four native populations of the Australian forest tree, Eucalyptus globulus . We used six microsatellite markers to genotype 1289 open-pollinated offspring from paired fragmented and continuous populations on the island of Tasmania and in Victoria on mainland Australia. The mating patterns in the two continuous populations were similar, despite large differences in population density. In contrast, the two fragmented populations were variable and idiosyncratic in their mating patterns, particularly in their pollen dispersal kernels. The continuous populations showed relatively high outcrossing rates (86–89%) and low correlated paternity (0.03–0.06) compared with the fragmented populations (65–79% and 0.12–0.20 respectively). A greater proportion of trees contributed to reproduction in the fragmented ( de/d ≥ 0.5) compared with the continuous populations ( de/d  =   0.03–0.04). Despite significant inbreeding in the offspring of the fragmented populations, there was little evidence of loss of genetic diversity. It is argued that enhanced medium- and long-distance dispersal in fragmented landscapes may act to partly buffer the remnant populations from the negative effects of inbreeding and drift.     

Recalculating route: dispersal constraints will drive the redistribution of Amazon primates in the Anthropocene

Climate change will redistribute the global biodiversity in the Anthropocene. As climates change, species might move from one place to another, due to local extinctions and colonization of new environments. However, the existence of permeable migratory routes precedes faunal migrations in fragmented landscapes. Here, we investigate how dispersal will affect the outcome of climate change on the distribution of Amazon's primate species. We modeled the distribution of 80 Amazon primate species, using ecological niche models, and projected their potential distribution on scenarios of climate change. Then, we imposed landscape restrictions to primate dispersal, derived from a natural biogeographical barrier to primates (the main tributaries of the Amazon river) and an anthropogenic constraint to the migration of many canopy‐dependent animals (deforested areas). We also highlighted potential conflict zones, i.e. regions of high migration potential but predicted to be deforested. Species response to climate change varied across dispersal limitation scenarios. If species could occupy all newly suitable climate, almost 70% of species could expand ranges. Including dispersal barriers (natural and anthropogenic), however, led to range expansion in only less than 20% of the studied species. When species were not allowed to migrate, all of them lost an average of 90% of the suitable area, suggesting that climate may become unsuitable within their present distributions. All Amazon primate species may need to move as climate changes to avoid deleterious effects of exposure to non‐analog climates. The effect of climate change on the distribution of Amazon primates will ultimately depend on whether landscape permeability will allow climate‐driven faunal migrations. The network of protected areas in the Amazon could work as ‘stepping stones’ but most are outside important migratory routes. Therefore, protecting important dispersal corridors is foremost to allow effective migrations of the Amazon fauna in face of climate change and deforestation.     

Potential role of natural enemies during tree range expansions following climate change

Recent investigations have shown how chance, long-range dispersal events can allow tree populations to migrate rapidly in response to changes in climate. However, this apparent solution to Reid's paradox applies solely within the context of single species models, while the rapid migration rates seen in pollen records occurred within multispecies communities. Ecologists are therefore presented with a new challenge: reconciling the macroscopic dynamics of spread seen in the pollen record with the rules and interactions governing plant community assembly. A case that highlights this issue is the rapid spread of Beech during the Holocene into a landscape already dominated by a close competitor, Hemlock. In this study, we analyse a simple model of plant community assembly incorporating competition for space and dispersal dynamics, showing how, even when a species is capable of rapid migration into an empty landscape, the presence of an ecologically similar competitor causes Reid's paradox to re-emerge because of the dramatic slowing effect of competitive interactions on a species' rate of spread. We then show how the answer to the question of how tree species dispersed rapidly into occupied landscapes may lie in secondary interactions with host-specific pathogens and parasites. Inclusion of host-specific pathogens into the simple community assembly model illustrates how tree species undergoing range expansions can temporarily outstrip specialist predators, giving rise to a transient Jansen-Connell effect, in which the invader acts as temporary 'super-species' that spreads rapidly into communities already occupied by competitors at rates consistent with those observed in the paleo-record.     

Colonization dynamics of a clonal pioneer plant on a glacier foreland inferred from spatially explicit and size-structured matrix models

The regional distribution of a plant species is a result of the dynamics of extinctions and colonizations in suitable habitats, especially in strongly fragmented landscapes. Here, we studied the role of spatial dynamics of the long-lived, clonal pioneer plant Geum reptans occurring on glacier forelands in the European Alps. We used demographic data from several years and sites in the Swiss Alps in combination with dispersal data to parametrize a matrix model for G. reptans to simulate extinctions, colonizations and spatial spread of established populations on glacial forelands. We used different scenarios with varying germination rates, wind and animal dispersal capabilities, and modes of spatial spread (seed-only vs clonal spread), resulting in population growth rates (λ) ranging from 1.04 to 1.20. Our results suggest that due to the low germination rate (~1%) and the very limited wind dispersal distances (99.8% of seeds are dispersed < 5 m), G. reptans has a low probability of establishing new populations and a very low spatial spread by seed dispersal alone. In contrast to the low rate of establishment, the persistence of established populations is high and even populations of only a few individuals have an extinction probability of less than 25% within 100 years. This high persistency is partly due to clonal reproduction via aboveground stolons. Clonal reproduction increases the population size and contributes considerably to the spatial spread of established populations. Our simulation results together with the known pattern of molecular diversity of G. reptans indicate that the occurrence of populations of this species in the Alps is unlikely to be a result of recent colonizations by long-distance dispersal, but rather a result of post-glacial colonizations by large migrating populations that were fragmented when glaciers retreated. Additionally, our simulations suggest that the currently observed high rates of glacial retreat might be too fast for pioneer plants, such as G. reptans, to keep up with the retreating ice and therefore might threaten existing populations.     

Modelling species' range shifts in a changing climate: the impacts of biotic interactions, dispersal distance and the rate of climate change

There is an urgent need for accurate prediction of climate change impacts on species ranges. Current reliance on bioclimatic envelope approaches ignores important biological processes such as interactions and dispersal. Although much debated, it is unclear how such processes might influence range shifting. Using individual-based modelling we show that interspecific interactions and dispersal ability interact with the rate of climate change to determine range-shifting dynamics in a simulated community with two growth forms--mutualists and competitors. Interactions determine spatial arrangements of species prior to the onset of rapid climate change. These lead to space-occupancy effects that limit the rate of expansion of the fast-growing competitors but which can be overcome by increased long-distance dispersal. As the rate of climate change increases, lower levels of long-distance dispersal can drive the mutualists to extinction, demonstrating the potential for subtle process balances, non-linear dynamics and abrupt changes from species coexistence to species loss during climate change.     

Exploring tree species colonization potentials using a spatially explicit simulation model: implications for four oaks under climate change

Climate change impacts tree species differentially by exerting unique pressures and altering their suitable habitats. We previously predicted these changes in suitable habitat for current and future climates using a species habitat model (DISTRIB) in the eastern United States. Based on the accuracy of the model, the species assemblages should eventually reflect the new quasi‐equilibrium suitable habitats (~2100) after accounting for the lag in colonization. However, it is an open question if and when these newly suitable habitats will be colonized under current fragmented landscapes and realistic migration rates. To evaluate this, we used a spatially explicit cell‐based model (SHIFT) that estimates colonization potentials under current fragmented habitats and several estimates of historical migration rates at a 1 km resolution. Computation time, which was previously the biggest constraint, was overcome by a novel application of convolution and Fast Fourier Transforms. SHIFT outputs, when intersected with future suitable habitats predicted by DISTRIB, allow assessment of colonization potential under future climates. In this article, we show how our approach can be used to screen multiple tree species for their colonization potentials under climate change. In particular, we use the DISTRIB and SHIFT models in combination to assess if the future dominant forest types in the north will really be dominated by oaks, as modelled via DISTRIB. Even under optimistic scenarios, we conclude that only a small fraction of the suitable habitats of oaks predicted by DISTRIB is likely to be occupied within 100 years, and this will be concentrated in the first 10–20 km from the current boundary. We also show how DISTRIB and SHIFT can be used to evaluate the potential for assisted migration of vulnerable tree species, and discuss the dynamics of colonization at range limits.