Association between Stock Market Gains and Losses and Google Searches

Experimental studies in the area of Psychology and Behavioral Economics have suggested that people change their search pattern in response to positive and negative events. Using Internet search data provided by Google, we investigated the relationship between stock-specific events and related Google searches. We studied daily data from 13 stocks from the Dow-Jones and NASDAQ100 indices, over a period of 4 trading years. Focusing on periods in which stocks were extensively searched (Intensive Search Periods), we found a correlation between the magnitude of stock returns at the beginning of the period and the volume, peak, and duration of search generated during the period. This relation between magnitudes of stock returns and subsequent searches was considerably magnified in periods following negative stock returns. Yet, we did not find that intensive search periods following losses were associated with more Google searches than periods following gains. Thus, rather than increasing search, losses improved the fit between people’s search behavior and the extent of real-world events triggering the search. The findings demonstrate the robustness of the attentional effect of losses.     

Identifying Causal Risk Factors for Violence among Discharged Patients

Background

Structured Professional Judgement (SPJ) is routinely administered in mental health and criminal justice settings but cannot identify violence risk above moderate accuracy. There is no current evidence that violence can be prevented using SPJ. This may be explained by routine application of predictive instead of causal statistical models when standardising SPJ instruments.

Methods

We carried out a prospective cohort study of 409 male and female patients discharged from medium secure services in England and Wales to the community. Measures were taken at baseline (pre-discharge), 6 and 12 months post-discharge using the Historical, Clinical and Risk-20 items version 3 (HCR-20^v3) and Structural Assessment of Protective Factors (SAPROF). Information on violence was obtained via the McArthur community violence instrument and the Police National Computer.

Results

In a lagged model, HCR-20^v3 and SAPROF items were poor predictors of violence. Eight items of the HCR-20^v3 and 4 SAPROF items did not predict violent behaviour better than chance. In re-analyses considering temporal proximity of risk/ protective factors (exposure) on violence (outcome), risk was elevated due to violent ideation (OR 6.98, 95% CI 13.85–12.65, P<0.001), instability (OR 5.41, 95% CI 3.44–8.50, P<0.001), and poor coping/ stress (OR 8.35, 95% CI 4.21–16.57, P<0.001). All 3 risk factors were explanatory variables which drove the association with violent outcome. Self-control (OR 0.13, 95% CI 0.08–0.24, P<0.001) conveyed protective effects and explained the association of other protective factors with violence.

Conclusions

Using two standardised SPJ instruments, predictive (lagged) methods could not identify risk and protective factors which must be targeted in interventions for discharged patients with severe mental illness. Predictive methods should be abandoned if the aim is to progress from risk assessment to effective risk management and replaced by methods which identify factors causally associated with violence.     

Relationships between proteasomes and RNA

The 20S proteasome (prosome) is a highly organized multi-protein complex with approximate molecular weight of about 700 kDa. Whilst the role of the proteasome in the processing and turnover of cellular proteins is becoming clearer, its relationship with RNA remains obscure. Over the last decade the possibility of association of proteasomes with specific RNAs or mRNPs have been particularly controversial. Proteasomes were reported to inhibit translation of viral mRNAs and to be tightly associated with RNase activity. It is possible that proteasomes are also involved in cellular RNA breakdown and RNA processing like prokaryotic RNase E.     

谈谈白蚁与人类的密切关系

白蚁对人类的危害众所周知 ,白蚁对人类的有益方面 ,人们知之甚少。该文重点论述白蚁对人类有益的方面。白蚁在自然界中 ,是一个名符其实的“清道夫” ,它将林地中的枯枝、落叶等转化为有益的肥料 ,回归自然 ,再被植物吸收 ;白蚁本身可加工成营养丰富的美味佳肴食品 ,也可精制成防病治病的良药和效果明显的保健补品 ;白蚁的附生物 ,如鸡菌更是美味佳肴 ,菌圃和炭棒菌也能精制成治疗多种疾病的良药。     

Crisis-Like Behavior in China's Stock Market and Its Interpretation

In order for China to play a bigger, more positive role in the world, it is important for China to have a healthy capital market. This perception motivates us to examine the health of China''s capital market, especially the severity of the overall loss of the listed companies in China and the effects of accounting irregularities on the losses. We show the overall loss of the listed companies was very severe, in particular, crisis-like behavior emerged in the fourth quarter of 2002, 2004, 2005, and 2008. We further observe that loss in the fourth quarter was much greater than the average loss of the first three quarters in the same year. The most straightforward interpretation of this loss pattern is that companies underreported losses in the first three quarters, to boost their stock values in most time of the year. However, in the fourth quarter, accounting balance of the whole year dictated that the reported loss in the fourth quarter had to be much greater than the actual loss. Fortunately, such irregularity has been greatly reduced, thanks to the accounting reforms in China in 2007.     

Confidence and the Stock Market: An Agent-Based Approach

Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations—indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior.     

Relationships between sulfate-reducing and methane-producing bacteria

Summary Sulfate ions in the muddy sediments of Lake Vechten are consumed by sulfate-reducing bacteria of which the abundance is limited by the concentration of these ions. Methane producers are found deeper in the mud at lower concentrations of hydrogen sulphide. The turnover rate constant (k) of L-lactate, calculated from the decline in specific activity of labeled acid, was 2.37 h⁻¹. The average L-lactate pool size was 12.2 μg per gram of wet mud, giving a turnover rate of 28.9 μg of lactate/gram of mud per h. The turnover rate constant of acetate was 0.35 h⁻¹ and the average pool size 5.7 μg per gram of wet mud, giving a rate of disappearance of 2.0 μg of acetate/gram of mud per h. The formation of C¹⁴H₄ from [U-C¹⁴]-L-lactate, suggests a substrate relationship between sulfate-reducing and methane-producing bacteria. Results of chemostat experiments gave further supporting evidence of such a relationship. The influence of an acetate-producing organism,Desulfovibrio desulfuricans, on the fermentation of limiting amounts of acetate by a methane-producing organism,Methanobacterium sp., was studied in mixed continuous cultures. The results of these experiments indicated the existence of a commensalism. Paper read at the Symposium on the Sulphur Cycle, Wageningen, May 1974.     

Social Relationships and Mortality Risk: A Meta-analytic Review

Background

The quality and quantity of individuals'' social relationships has been linked not only to mental health but also to both morbidity and mortality.

Objectives

This meta-analytic review was conducted to determine the extent to which social relationships influence risk for mortality, which aspects of social relationships are most highly predictive, and which factors may moderate the risk.

Data Extraction

Data were extracted on several participant characteristics, including cause of mortality, initial health status, and pre-existing health conditions, as well as on study characteristics, including length of follow-up and type of assessment of social relationships.

Results

Across 148 studies (308,849 participants), the random effects weighted average effect size was OR = 1.50 (95% CI 1.42 to 1.59), indicating a 50% increased likelihood of survival for participants with stronger social relationships. This finding remained consistent across age, sex, initial health status, cause of death, and follow-up period. Significant differences were found across the type of social measurement evaluated (p<0.001); the association was strongest for complex measures of social integration (OR = 1.91; 95% CI 1.63 to 2.23) and lowest for binary indicators of residential status (living alone versus with others) (OR = 1.19; 95% CI 0.99 to 1.44).

Conclusions

The influence of social relationships on risk for mortality is comparable with well-established risk factors for mortality. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Exploring Market State and Stock Interactions on the Minute Timescale

A stock market is a non-stationary complex system. The stock interactions are important for understanding the state of the market. However, our knowledge on the stock interactions on the minute timescale is limited. Here we apply the random matrix theory and methods in complex networks to study the stock interactions and sector interactions. Further, we construct a new kind of cross-correlation matrix to investigate the correlation between the stock interactions at different minutes within one trading day. Based on 50 million minute-to-minute price data in the Shanghai stock market, we discover that the market states in the morning and afternoon are significantly different. The differences mainly exist in three aspects, i.e. the co-movement of stock prices, interactions of sectors and correlation between the stock interactions at different minutes. In the afternoon, the component stocks of sectors are more robust and the structure of sectors is firmer. Therefore, the market state in the afternoon is more stable. Furthermore, we reveal that the information of the sector interactions can indicate the financial crisis in the market, and the indicator based on the empirical data in the afternoon is more effective.     

Dynamic Evolution of Cross-Correlations in the Chinese Stock Market

The analysis of cross-correlations is extensively applied for the understanding of interconnections in stock markets and the portfolio risk estimation. Current studies of correlations in Chinese market mainly focus on the static correlations between return series, and this calls for an urgent need to investigate their dynamic correlations. Our study aims to reveal the dynamic evolution of cross-correlations in the Chinese stock market, and offer an exact interpretation for the evolution behavior. The correlation matrices constructed from the return series of 367 A-share stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange from January 4, 1999 to December 30, 2011 are calculated over a moving window with a size of 400 days. The evolutions of the statistical properties of the correlation coefficients, eigenvalues, and eigenvectors of the correlation matrices are carefully analyzed. We find that the stock correlations are significantly increased in the periods of two market crashes in 2001 and 2008, during which only five eigenvalues significantly deviate from the random correlation matrix, and the systemic risk is higher in these volatile periods than calm periods. By investigating the significant contributors of the deviating eigenvectors in different time periods, we observe a dynamic evolution behavior in business sectors such as IT, electronics, and real estate, which lead the rise (drop) before (after) the crashes. Our results provide new perspectives for the understanding of the dynamic evolution of cross-correlations in the Chines stock markets, and the result of risk estimation is valuable for the application of risk management.     

Relationships Between Animal Health Monitoring and the Risk Assessment Process

Risk assessment is part of the risk analysis process as it is used in veterinary medicine to estimate risks related to international trade and food safety. Data from monitoring and surveillance systems (MO&SS) are used throughout the risk assessment process for hazard identification, release assessment, exposure assessment and consequence assessment. As the quality of risk assessments depends to a large extent on the availability and quality of input data, there is a close relationship between MO&SS and risk assessment. In order to improve the quality of risk assessments, MO&SS should be designed according to minimum quality standards. Second, recent scientific developments on state-of-the-art design and analysis of surveys need to be translated into field applications and legislation. Finally, knowledge about the risk assessment process among MO&SS planners and managers should be promoted in order to assure high-quality data.     

Impact of Stock Market Structure on Intertrade Time and Price Dynamics

We analyse times between consecutive transactions for a diverse group of stocks registered on the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, and we relate the dynamical properties of the intertrade times with those of the corresponding price fluctuations. We report that market structure strongly impacts the scale-invariant temporal organisation in the transaction timing of stocks, which we have observed to have long-range power-law correlations. Specifically, we find that, compared to NYSE stocks, stocks registered on the NASDAQ exhibit significantly stronger correlations in their transaction timing on scales within a trading day. Further, we find that companies that transfer from the NASDAQ to the NYSE show a reduction in the correlation strength of transaction timing on scales within a trading day, indicating influences of market structure. We also report a persistent decrease in correlation strength of intertrade times with increasing average intertrade time and with corresponding decrease in companies'' market capitalization–a trend which is less pronounced for NASDAQ stocks. Surprisingly, we observe that stronger power-law correlations in intertrade times are coupled with stronger power-law correlations in absolute price returns and higher price volatility, suggesting a strong link between the dynamical properties of intertrade times and the corresponding price fluctuations over a broad range of time scales. Comparing the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, we demonstrate that the stronger correlations we find in intertrade times for NASDAQ stocks are associated with stronger correlations in absolute price returns and with higher volatility, suggesting that market structure may affect price behavior through information contained in transaction timing. These findings do not support the hypothesis of universal scaling behavior in stock dynamics that is independent of company characteristics and stock market structure. Further, our results have implications for utilising transaction timing patterns in price prediction and risk management optimization on different stock markets.     

Profitability of Contrarian Strategies in the Chinese Stock Market

This paper reexamines the profitability of loser, winner and contrarian portfolios in the Chinese stock market using monthly data of all stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange covering the period from January 1997 to December 2012. We find evidence of short-term and long-term contrarian profitability in the whole sample period when the estimation and holding horizons are 1 month or longer than 12 months and the annualized return of contrarian portfolios increases with the estimation and holding horizons. We perform subperiod analysis and find that the long-term contrarian effect is significant in both bullish and bearish states, while the short-term contrarian effect disappears in bullish states. We compare the performance of contrarian portfolios based on different grouping manners in the estimation period and unveil that decile grouping outperforms quintile grouping and tertile grouping, which is more evident and robust in the long run. Generally, loser portfolios and winner portfolios have positive returns and loser portfolios perform much better than winner portfolios. Both loser and winner portfolios in bullish states perform better than those in the whole sample period. In contrast, loser and winner portfolios have smaller returns in bearish states, in which loser portfolio returns are significant only in the long term and winner portfolio returns become insignificant. These results are robust to the one-month skipping between the estimation and holding periods and for the two stock exchanges. Our findings show that the Chinese stock market is not efficient in the weak form. These findings also have obvious practical implications for financial practitioners.     

Relationships between proteasomes and viral gene products

The interrelationships between proteasomes and viral gene products are very complex. 20S proteasomes associate with a number of viral mRNAs which are cleaved by proteasome's associated endonuclease activity. In addition proteasome's endopeptidase activities are involved in the presentation of viral antigens. Viral proteins of different origin associate with the 20S and 26S complexes and interfere with their enzymatic activities. A major part of this review deals with the interactions between 20S proteasomes and the gene products of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) which has been studied in detail by our group.     

Relationships between direct predation and risk effects

Risk effects arise when prey alter their behavior in response to predators, and these responses carry costs. Empirical studies have found that risk effects can be large. Nonetheless, studies of predation in vertebrate conservation and management usually consider only direct predation. Given the ubiquity and strength of behavioral responses to predators by vertebrate prey, it is not safe to assume that risk effects on dynamics can be ignored. Risk effects can be larger than direct effects. Risk effects can exist even when the direct rate of predation is zero. Risk effects and direct effects do not necessarily change in parallel. When risk effects reduce reproduction rather than survival, they are easily mistaken for limitation by food supply.     

Relationships between coral reef substrata and fish

 The objective of this work is to identify which substrata characteristics (such as coral morphology, coral diversity, coral species richness, percentage coverage by live coral or by algae) influence the structure and abundance of fish communities. The study was carried out at Reunion Island, Indian Ocean, where six sites were sampled in two zones (reef flat and outer reef slope). Quantitative data were collected by visual census techniques, along a linear transect of 50 m for the substratum, and a belt of 50×2 m for the fish communities. Correspondence analysis (CA) and an optimising cluster analysis, called dynamic clustering method (DCM) were used to describe and compare fish assemblages with the benthic composition. The relationships between benthic and fish communities were examined using the classes revealed by the partitioning of the substratum with DCM. This partitioning allowed us to derive four classes of substratum: the non-disturbed reef flat, the non-disturbed outer reef slope, the perturbed reef habitat and the reef pass. The analysis of the partitioning based on the coral variables suggests that there are significant relationships between benthic and fish assemblages. Accepted: 26 July 1996     

Relationships between individual- and population-based plankton models

Two simulations of plankton dynamics are combined: an N/P/Zmodel and an optimal foraging strategy dependent on variablevertical migration. We show that there is no optimal individualstrategy consistent with a copepod population that has two generationsand is a significant grazer on its limiting food supply. Alternativeroles for did vertical migration are considered.