Ancestral inference and the study of codon bias evolution: implications for molecular evolutionary analyses of the Drosophila melanogaster subgroup

Reliable inference of ancestral sequences can be critical to identifying both patterns and causes of molecular evolution. Robustness of ancestral inference is often assumed among closely related species, but tests of this assumption have been limited. Here, we examine the performance of inference methods for data simulated under scenarios of codon bias evolution within the Drosophila melanogaster subgroup. Genome sequence data for multiple, closely related species within this subgroup make it an important system for studying molecular evolutionary genetics. The effects of asymmetric and lineage-specific substitution rates (i.e., varying levels of codon usage bias and departures from equilibrium) on the reliability of ancestral codon usage was investigated. Maximum parsimony inference, which has been widely employed in analyses of Drosophila codon bias evolution, was compared to an approach that attempts to account for uncertainty in ancestral inference by weighting ancestral reconstructions by their posterior probabilities. The latter approach employs maximum likelihood estimation of rate and base composition parameters. For equilibrium and most non-equilibrium scenarios that were investigated, the probabilistic method appears to generate reliable ancestral codon bias inferences for molecular evolutionary studies within the D. melanogaster subgroup. These reconstructions are more reliable than parsimony inference, especially when codon usage is strongly skewed. However, inference biases are considerable for both methods under particular departures from stationarity (i.e., when adaptive evolution is prevalent). Reliability of inference can be sensitive to branch lengths, asymmetry in substitution rates, and the locations and nature of lineage-specific processes within a gene tree. Inference reliability, even among closely related species, can be strongly affected by (potentially unknown) patterns of molecular evolution in lineages ancestral to those of interest.     

An improved likelihood ratio test for detecting site-specific functional divergence among clades of protein-coding genes

Maximum likelihood codon substitution models have proven useful for studying when and how protein function evolves, but they have recently been criticized on a number of fronts. The strengths and weaknesses of such methods must therefore be identified and improved upon. Here, using simulations, we show that the Clade model C versus M1a test for functional divergence among clades is prone to false positives under simple evolutionary conditions. We then propose a new null model (M2a_rel) that better accounts for among-site variation in selective constraint. We show that the revised test has an improved false-positive rate and good power. Applying this test to previously analyzed data sets of primate ribonucleases and mammalian rhodopsins reveals that some conclusions may have been misled by the original method. The improved test should prove useful for identifying patterns of divergence in selective constraint among paralogous gene families and among orthologs from ecologically divergent species.     

ALF--a simulation framework for genome evolution

In computational evolutionary biology, verification and benchmarking is a challenging task because the evolutionary history of studied biological entities is usually not known. Computer programs for simulating sequence evolution in silico have shown to be viable test beds for the verification of newly developed methods and to compare different algorithms. However, current simulation packages tend to focus either on gene-level aspects of genome evolution such as character substitutions and insertions and deletions (indels) or on genome-level aspects such as genome rearrangement and speciation events. Here, we introduce Artificial Life Framework (ALF), which aims at simulating the entire range of evolutionary forces that act on genomes: nucleotide, codon, or amino acid substitution (under simple or mixture models), indels, GC-content amelioration, gene duplication, gene loss, gene fusion, gene fission, genome rearrangement, lateral gene transfer (LGT), or speciation. The other distinctive feature of ALF is its user-friendly yet powerful web interface. We illustrate the utility of ALF with two possible applications: 1) we reanalyze data from a study of selection after globin gene duplication and test the statistical significance of the original conclusions and 2) we demonstrate that LGT can dramatically decrease the accuracy of two well-established orthology inference methods. ALF is available as a stand-alone application or via a web interface at http://www.cbrg.ethz.ch/alf.     

Implications of Fluctuations in Substitution Rates: Impact on the Uncertainty of Branch Lengths and on Relative-Rate Tests

Many tests of the lineage dependence of substitution rates, computations of the error of evolutionary distances, and simulations of molecular evolution assume that the rate of evolution is constant in time within each lineage descended from a common ancestor. However, estimates of the index of dispersion of numbers of mammalian substitutions suggest that the rate has time-dependent variations consistent with a fractal-Gaussian-rate Poisson process, which assumes common descent without assuming rate constancy. While this model does not affect certain relative-rate tests, it substantially increases the uncertainty of branch lengths. Thus, fluctuations in the rate of substitution cannot be neglected in calculations that rely on evolutionary distances, such as the confidence intervals of divergence times and certain phylogenetic reconstructions. The fractal-Gaussian-rate Poisson process is compared and contrasted with previous models of molecular evolution, including other Poisson processes, the fractal renewal process, a Lévy-stable process, a fractional-difference process, and a log-Brownian process. The fractal models are more compatible with mammalian data than the nonfractal models considered, and they may also be better supported by Darwinian theory. Although the fractal-Gaussian-rate Poisson process has not been proven to have better agreement with data or theory than the other fractal models, its Gaussian nature simplifies the exploration of its impact on evolutionary distance errors and relative-rate tests. Received: 29 September 1999 / Accepted: 20 January 2000     

Recombination Detection Under Evolutionary Scenarios Relevant to Functional Divergence

Recombination can negatively impact methods designed to detect divergent gene function that rely on explicit knowledge of a gene tree. However, we know little about how recombination detection methods perform under evolutionary scenarios encountered in studies of functional molecular divergence. We use simulation to evaluate false positive rates for six recombination detection methods (GENECONV, MaxChi, Chimera, RDP, GARD-SBP, GARD-MBP) under evolutionary scenarios that might increase false positives. Broadly, these scenarios address: (i) asymmetric tree topology and sequence divergence, (ii) non-stationary codon bias and selection pressure, and (iii) positive selection. We also evaluate power to detect recombination under truly recombinant history. As with previous studies, we find that power increases with sequence divergence. However, we also find that accuracy to correctly infer the number of breakpoints is extremely low. When recombination is absent, increased sequence divergence leads to increased false positives. Furthermore, one method (GARD-SBP) is sensitive to tree shape, with higher false positive rates under an asymmetric tree topology. Somewhat surprisingly, all methods are robust to the simulated heterogeneity in codon bias, shifts in selection pressure and presence of positive selection. Based on these findings, we recommend that studies of functional divergence in systems where recombination is plausible can, and should, include a pre-test for recombination. Application of all methods to the core genome of Prochlorococcus reveals a substantial lack of concordance among results. Based on analysis of both real and simulated datasets we present some guidelines for the investigation of recombination in genes that may have experienced functional divergence.     

Assessing the performance of DNA barcoding using posterior predictive simulations

Accurate estimates of biodiversity are required for research in a broad array of biological subdisciplines including ecology, evolution, systematics, conservation and biodiversity science. The use of statistical models and genetic data, particularly DNA barcoding, has been suggested as an important tool for remedying the large gaps in our current understanding of biodiversity. However, the reliability of biodiversity estimates obtained using these approaches depends on how well the statistical models that are used describe the evolutionary process underlying the genetic data. In this study, we utilize data from the Barcode of Life Database and posterior predictive simulations to assess the performance of DNA barcoding under commonly used substitution models. We demonstrate that the success of DNA barcoding varies widely across DNA substitution models and that model choice has a substantial impact on the number of operational taxonomic units identified (changing results by ~4–31%). Additionally, we demonstrate that the widely followed practice of a priori assuming the Kimura 2‐parameter model for DNA barcoding is statistically unjustified and should be avoided. Using both data‐based and inference‐based test statistics, we detect variation in model performance across taxonomic groups, clustering algorithms, genetic divergence thresholds and substitution models. Taken together, these results illustrate the importance of considering both model selection and model adequacy in studies quantifying biodiversity.     

Modeling amino acid replacement.

The estimation of amino acid replacement frequencies during molecular evolution is crucial for many applications in sequence analysis. Score matrices for database search programs or phylogenetic analysis rely on such models of protein evolution. Pioneering work was done by Dayhoff et al. (1978) who formulated a Markov model of evolution and derived the famous PAM score matrices. Her estimation procedure for amino acid exchange frequencies is restricted to pairs of proteins that have a constant and small degree of divergence. Here we present an improved estimator, called the resolvent method, that is not subject to these limitations. This extension of Dayhoff's approach enables us to estimate an amino acid substitution model from alignments of varying degree of divergence. Extensive simulations show the capability of the new estimator to recover accurately the exchange frequencies among amino acids. Based on the SYSTERS database of aligned protein families (Krause and Vingron, 1998) we recompute a series of score matrices.     

CodonTest: Modeling Amino Acid Substitution Preferences in Coding Sequences

Codon models of evolution have facilitated the interpretation of selective forces operating on genomes. These models, however, assume a single rate of non-synonymous substitution irrespective of the nature of amino acids being exchanged. Recent developments have shown that models which allow for amino acid pairs to have independent rates of substitution offer improved fit over single rate models. However, these approaches have been limited by the necessity for large alignments in their estimation. An alternative approach is to assume that substitution rates between amino acid pairs can be subdivided into rate classes, dependent on the information content of the alignment. However, given the combinatorially large number of such models, an efficient model search strategy is needed. Here we develop a Genetic Algorithm (GA) method for the estimation of such models. A GA is used to assign amino acid substitution pairs to a series of rate classes, where is estimated from the alignment. Other parameters of the phylogenetic Markov model, including substitution rates, character frequencies and branch lengths are estimated using standard maximum likelihood optimization procedures. We apply the GA to empirical alignments and show improved model fit over existing models of codon evolution. Our results suggest that current models are poor approximations of protein evolution and thus gene and organism specific multi-rate models that incorporate amino acid substitution biases are preferred. We further anticipate that the clustering of amino acid substitution rates into classes will be biologically informative, such that genes with similar functions exhibit similar clustering, and hence this clustering will be useful for the evolutionary fingerprinting of genes.     

A random effects branch-site model for detecting episodic diversifying selection

Adaptive evolution frequently occurs in episodic bursts, localized to a few sites in a gene, and to a small number of lineages in a phylogenetic tree. A popular class of "branch-site" evolutionary models provides a statistical framework to search for evidence of such episodic selection. For computational tractability, current branch-site models unrealistically assume that all branches in the tree can be partitioned a priori into two rigid classes--"foreground" branches that are allowed to undergo diversifying selective bursts and "background" branches that are negatively selected or neutral. We demonstrate that this assumption leads to unacceptably high rates of false positives or false negatives when the evolutionary process along background branches strongly deviates from modeling assumptions. To address this problem, we extend Felsenstein's pruning algorithm to allow efficient likelihood computations for models in which variation over branches (and not just sites) is described in the random effects likelihood framework. This enables us to model the process at every branch-site combination as a mixture of three Markov substitution models--our model treats the selective class of every branch at a particular site as an unobserved state that is chosen independently of that at any other branch. When benchmarked on a previously published set of simulated sequences, our method consistently matched or outperformed existing branch-site tests in terms of power and error rates. Using three empirical data sets, previously analyzed for episodic selection, we discuss how modeling assumptions can influence inference in practical situations.     

Codon substitution models based on residue similarity and their applications

Codon models are now widely used to draw evolutionary inferences from alignments of homologous sequence data. Incorporating physicochemical properties of amino acids into codon models, two novel codon substitution models describing the evolution of protein-coding DNA sequences are presented based on the similarity scores of amino acids. To describe substitutions between codons a continue-time Markov process is used. Transition/transversion rate bias and nonsynonymous codon usage bias are allowed in the models. In our implementation, the parameters are estimated by maximum-likelihood (ML) method as in previous studies. Furthermore, instantaneous mutations involving more than one nucleotide position of a codon are considered in the second model. Then the two suggested models are applied to five real data sets. The analytic results indicate that the new codon models considering physicochemical properties of amino acids can provide a better fit to the data comparing with existing codon models, and then produce more reliable estimates of certain biologically important measures than existing methods.     

Evaluating the robustness of phylogenetic methods to among-site variability in substitution processes

Computer simulations provide a flexible method for assessing the power and robustness of phylogenetic inference methods. Unfortunately, simulated data are often obviously atypical of data encountered in studies of molecular evolution. Unrealistic simulations can lead to conclusions that are irrelevant to real-data analyses or can provide a biased view of which methods perform well. Here, we present a software tool designed to generate data under a complex codon model that allows each residue in the protein sequence to have a different set of equilibrium amino acid frequencies. The software can obtain maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters of the Halpern and Bruno model from empirical data and a fixed tree; given an arbitrary tree and a fixed set of parameters, the software can then simulate artificial datasets.We present the results of a simulation experiment using randomly generated tree shapes and substitution parameters estimated from 1610 mammalian cytochrome b sequences.We tested tree inference at the amino acid, nucleotide and codon levels and under parsimony, maximum-likelihood, Bayesian and distance criteria (for a total of more than 650 analyses on each dataset). Based on these simulations, nucleotide-level analyses seem to be more accurate than amino acid and codon analyses. The performance of distance-based phylogenetic methods appears to be quite sensitive to the choice of model and the form of rate heterogeneity used. Further studies are needed to assess the generality of these conclusions. For example, fitting parameters of the Halpern Bruno model to sequences from other genes will reveal the extent to which our conclusions were influenced by the choice of cytochrome b. Incorporating codon bias and more sources heterogeneity into the simulator will be crucial to determining whether the current results are caused by a bias in the current simulation study in favour of nucleotide analyses.     

Disparity index: a simple statistic to measure and test the homogeneity of substitution patterns between molecular sequences.

A common assumption in comparative sequence analysis is that the sequences have evolved with the same pattern of nucleotide substitution (homogeneity of the evolutionary process). Violation of this assumption is known to adversely impact the accuracy of phylogenetic inference and tests of evolutionary hypotheses. Here we propose a disparity index, ID, which measures the observed difference in evolutionary patterns for a pair of sequences. On the basis of this index, we have developed a Monte Carlo procedure to test the homogeneity of the observed patterns. This test does not require a priori knowledge of the pattern of substitutions, extent of rate heterogeneity among sites, or the evolutionary relationship among sequences. Computer simulations show that the ID-test is more powerful than the commonly used chi2-test under a variety of biologically realistic models of sequence evolution. An application of this test in an analysis of 3789 pairs of orthologous human and mouse protein-coding genes reveals that the observed evolutionary patterns in neutral sites are not homogeneous in 41% of the genes, apparently due to shifts in G + C content. Thus, the proposed test can be used as a diagnostic tool to identify genes and lineages that have evolved with substantially different evolutionary processes as reflected in the observed patterns of change. Identification of such genes and lineages is an important early step in comparative genomics and molecular phylogenetic studies to discover evolutionary processes that have shaped organismal genomes.     

Markovian and non-Markovian protein sequence evolution: aggregated Markov process models

Over the years, there have been claims that evolution proceeds according to systematically different processes over different timescales and that protein evolution behaves in a non-Markovian manner. On the other hand, Markov models are fundamental to many applications in evolutionary studies. Apparent non-Markovian or time-dependent behavior has been attributed to influence of the genetic code at short timescales and dominance of physicochemical properties of the amino acids at long timescales. However, any long time period is simply the accumulation of many short time periods, and it remains unclear why evolution should appear to act systematically differently across the range of timescales studied. We show that the observed time-dependent behavior can be explained qualitatively by modeling protein sequence evolution as an aggregated Markov process (AMP): a time-homogeneous Markovian substitution model observed only at the level of the amino acids encoded by the protein-coding DNA sequence. The study of AMPs sheds new light on the relationship between amino acid-level and codon-level models of sequence evolution, and our results suggest that protein evolution should be modeled at the codon level rather than using amino acid substitution models.     

Synonymous substitutions substantially improve evolutionary inference from highly diverged proteins

Codon-and amino acid-substitution models are widely used for the evolutionary analysis of protein-coding DNA sequences. Using codon models, the amounts of both nonsynonymous and synonymous DNA substitutions can be estimated. The ratio of these amounts represents the strength of selective pressure. Using amino acid models, the amount of nonsynonymous substitutions is estimated, but that of synonymous substitutions is ignored. Although amino acid models lose any information regarding synonymous substitutions, they explicitly incorporate the information for amino acid replacement, which is empirically derived from databases. It is often presumed that when the protein-coding sequences are highly divergent, synonymous substitutions might be saturated and the evolutionary analysis may be hampered by synonymous noise. However, there exists no quantitative procedure to verify whether synonymous substitutions can be ignored; therefore, amino acid models have been arbitrarily selected. In this study, we investigate the issue of a statistical comparison between codon-and amino acid-substitution models. For this purpose, we propose a new procedure to transform a 20-dimensional amino acid model to a 61-dimensional codon model. This transformation reveals that amino acid models belong to a subset of the codon models and enables us to test whether synonymous substitutions can be ignored by using the likelihood ratio. Our theoretical results and analyses of real data indicate that synonymous substitutions are very informative and substantially improve evolutionary inference, even when the sequences are highly divergent. Therefore, we note that amino acid models should be adopted only after carefully investigating and discarding the possibility that synonymous substitutions can reveal important evolutionary information.     

Spatial and Temporal Simulation of Human Evolution. Methods,Frameworks and Applications

Analyses of human evolution are fundamental to understand the current gradients of human diversity. In this concern, genetic samples collected from current populations together with archaeological data are the most important resources to study human evolution. However, they are often insufficient to properly evaluate a variety of evolutionary scenarios, leading to continuous debates and discussions. A commonly applied strategy consists of the use of computer simulations based on, as realistic as possible, evolutionary models, to evaluate alternative evolutionary scenarios through statistical correlations with the real data. Computer simulations can also be applied to estimate evolutionary parameters or to study the role of each parameter on the evolutionary process. Here we review the mainly used methods and evolutionary frameworks to perform realistic spatially explicit computer simulations of human evolution. Although we focus on human evolution, most of the methods and software we describe can also be used to study other species. We also describe the importance of considering spatially explicit models to better mimic human evolutionary scenarios based on a variety of phenomena such as range expansions, range shifts, range contractions, sex-biased dispersal, long-distance dispersal or admixtures of populations. We finally discuss future implementations to improve current spatially explicit simulations and their derived applications in human evolution.     

Evolutionary models accounting for layers of selection in protein-coding genes and their impact on the inference of positive selection

The selective forces acting on a protein-coding gene are commonly inferred using evolutionary codon models by contrasting the rate of nonsynonymous substitutions to the rate of synonymous substitutions. These models usually assume that the synonymous substitution rate, Ks, is homogenous across all sites, which is justified if synonymous sites are free from selection. However, a growing body of evidence indicates that the DNA and RNA levels of protein-coding genes are subject to varying degrees of selective constraints due to various biological functions encoded at these levels. In this paper, we develop evolutionary models that account for these layers of selection by allowing for both among-site variability of substitution rates at the DNA/RNA level (which leads to Ks variability among protein-coding sites) and among-site variability of substitution rates at the protein level (Ka variability). These models are constructed so that positive selection is either allowed or not. This enables statistical testing of positive selection when variability at the DNA/RNA substitution rate is accounted for. Using this methodology, we show that variability of the baseline DNA/RNA substitution rate is a widespread phenomenon in coding sequence data of mammalian genomes, most likely reflecting varying degrees of selection at the DNA and RNA levels. Additionally, we use simulations to examine the impact that accounting for the variability of the baseline DNA/RNA substitution rate has on the inference of positive selection. Our results show that ignoring this variability results in a high rate of erroneous positive-selection inference. Our newly developed model, which accounts for this variability, does not suffer from this problem and hence provides a likelihood framework for the inference of positive selection on a background of variability in the baseline DNA/RNA substitution rate.     

Maximum-likelihood models for combined analyses of multiple sequence data

Models of nucleotide substitution were constructed for combined analyses of heterogeneous sequence data (such as those of multiple genes) from the same set of species. The models account for different aspects of the heterogeneity in the evolutionary process of different genes, such as differences in nucleotide frequencies, in substitution rate bias (for example, the transition/transversion rate bias), and in the extent of rate variation across sites. Model parameters were estimated by maximum likelihood and the likelihood ratio test was used to test hypotheses concerning sequence evolution, such as rate constancy among lineages (the assumption of a molecular clock) and proportionality of branch lengths for different genes. The example data from a segment of the mitochondrial genome of six hominoid species (human, common and pygmy chimpanzees, gorilla, orangutan, and siamang) were analyzed. Nucleotides at the three codon positions in the protein-coding regions and from the tRNA-coding regions were considered heterogeneous data sets. Statistical tests showed that the amount of evolution in the sequence data reflected in the estimated branch lengths can be explained by the codon-position effect and lineage effect of substitution rates. The assumption of a molecular clock could not be rejected when the data were analyzed separately or when the rate variation among sites was ignored. However, significant differences in substitution rate among lineages were found when the data sets were combined and when the rate variation among sites was accounted for in the models. Under the assumption that the orangutan and African apes diverged 13 million years ago, the combined analysis of the sequence data estimated the times for the human-chimpanzee separation and for the separation of the gorilla as 4.3 and 6.8 million years ago, respectively.