海南岛青梅种群生物学研究简报

青梅Vatica hainanensis (V.astroricha)广泛分布在我国海南岛各主要林区700米以下的山地和岛东南沿海滩涂,是海南岛热带雨林主要优势种和珍贵木材。本项研究以海南岛霸王岭混合雨林的青梅为重点,应用种群生物学的原理方法和数学矩阵技术,着重研究     

致倦库蚊实验种群动态研究

本文应用考虑年龄——龄期及雌雄性的生命表方法和传统的生命表方法计算,分析了致倦库蚊实验种群在温度为25℃条件下的种群增长参数,稳定年龄——龄期分布情况。在生命表分析的基础上,用转移矩阵模拟了致倦库蚁数量变动的规律。     

基于栖息地恢复对群落不同种群演化影响的模拟

通过建立基于栖息地恢复的多种群演化动力学模式,模拟了不同群落结构的不同物种种群的演化特点。模拟结果发现了两类灭绝机制,揭示了(1)小规模栖息地的恢复对群落中的弱小物种的影响是非常有限的,不会给弱小物种种群带来灭绝风险。大幅度的栖息地增加几乎使所有的物种种群都在最初数百年中内都有出现一定的增加,特别是竞争能力最强的物种,其幅度的增加最为显著,但次最强的物种种群可能会在千年左右灭绝。群落内幸存的种群将经历3个阶段迅速壮大(增加)阶段震荡阶段稳定阶段;(2)存在着协同现象,栖息地减少所导致种群的协同演化规律与栖息地恢复所导致的种群的演化规律两者之间既有共同点,又有不同点。毁坏是一种破坏,大规模的栖息地的恢复对已适应于破坏后新环境的某些物种也可能是一种威胁,这类似于生态入侵的初始阶段。     

安徽皇藏峪自然保护区青檀种群数量动态

根据野外调查资料编制皇藏峪自然保护区不同生境青檀种群的静态生命表,绘制存活曲线、死亡率曲线、消失率曲线以及4个生存函数曲线,分析种群数量特征。同时,结合种群动态量化方法和时间序列预测模型,分析种群数量动态变化。结果表明:1)不同生境青檀种群径级结构大体呈金字塔型,中、幼龄阶段个体数量丰富,老龄阶段个体数量相对较少,种群在发育过程中存在一定波动性,但种群数量变化动态指数Vpi和Vpi’(考虑外部干扰时)均大于零。种群属稳定增长型。2)不同生境青檀种群在幼龄阶段死亡率较高,随着龄级的增加,死亡率逐渐降低。进入生理衰老阶段时,阳坡、阴坡种群死亡率再次上升,而坡谷种群由于老龄个体受到较好保护,死亡率略有下降。3)不同生境存活曲线存在差异,阳坡、阴坡种群趋于Deevey-Ⅱ型,坡谷种群趋于Deevey-Ⅲ型。4)生存分析表明,阳坡、阴坡种群具有前期锐减、中期稳定、后期衰退的特点;坡谷种群表现为前期锐减、中后期稳定的特点。5)在未来2年、5年中,不同生境青檀种群呈增长趋势。     

猎物密度对七星瓢虫与异色瓢虫种间竞争的影响

通过单种群与混合种群饲养,研究了猎物密度对七星瓢虫Coccinella septempunctata和异色瓢虫Leis axyridis种间竞争影响,并用Lotka-Volterra种间竞争模型对两种瓢虫在猎物相对充足与不足条件下的种间竞争进行模拟,结果表明：猎物充足,两种瓢虫的种群增长呈线性增长趋势;猎物不足时,单独饲养时,两种瓢虫的种群增长趋势呈Logistic曲线,混合饲养时异色瓢虫的种群增长呈上升趋势,七星瓢虫趋于下降。在两种瓢虫的种间竞争中,异色瓢虫占相对优势,竞争的结局是二者可以形成一个稳定的平衡局面而得以共存。     

Allee效应对单种群模型动力学行为影响研究

提出具有Allee效应的抽象的单种群模型,证得如果原系统有唯一的全局稳定的正平衡点,则具有Allee效应的单种群模型仍然具有唯一的全局稳定的正平衡点.Allee效应并不改变种群的平衡位置和稳定性;其后,针对具有Allee效应的对数种群模型,食物有限的单种群模型,Ayala型单种群模型分别进行了数值模拟,数值模拟表明随着Allee效应增大,系统的解需要更久的时间才能趋于正平衡点,从这一角度讲,Allee效应不利于系统的稳定,种群在受到外界干扰时,可能种群密度更容易出现剧烈波动.     

模拟风雨对麦长管蚜自然种群发展的干扰作用

麦长管蚜Macrosiphum avenae（Fabricius）是我国小麦生产上的重大害虫,给小麦生产造成严重的威胁。本研究采用人工模拟风雨气象因子的方法,研究了吹风和喷水对麦长管蚜种群数量的干扰作用,解析了麦长管蚜在种群不同发展阶段受模拟风雨干扰后种群变化的特征,明确了麦长管蚜受模拟风雨作用影响其种群生长的关键时期。结果表明,在小麦田进行模拟风雨试验,处理强度越大,防治效果越好;有目标的对靶喷施处理的防治效果明显高于非目标喷施处理;确定人工喷水或吹风处理的最佳时期为小麦灌浆初期,即在该阶段进行一次喷水处理,可以获得最佳的防治效果和保产作用。     

根茎型木本克隆植物准噶尔无叶豆的种群数量动态

 根据根茎型木本克隆植物的特征, 不以种群的分株数量代表种群大小, 而尝试以不同茎级的根茎长度代表种群大小, 运用种群静态生命表、存活曲线、生殖力表和Leslie矩阵模型, 研究了准噶尔无叶豆(Eremosparton songoricum)的两个种群——A种群(46°31.09′ N, 88°33.06′ E, 紧邻乌伦古湖)和B种群(46°28.07′ N, 88°33.07′ E, 位于沙漠腹地)的种群数量动态。结果表明: 种群存活表现为Deevey-I型。A种群在中龄阶段受到的人为干扰较大, 死亡率出现高峰, 种群的净增长率(R₀)、内禀增长率(r_m)和周限增长率(λ)较低, 表现为衰退型种群, Leslie矩阵模型的模拟结果表明, 15 a内种群呈现下降趋势; B种群所受到的压力主要是干旱贫瘠的荒漠环境所导致的系统压力, 种群的R₀、r_m和λ值适中, 表现为缓慢增长型种群, Leslie矩阵模型的模拟结果表明, 15 a内种群呈现先下降、再上升的趋势。此外, 研究结果验证了Leslie矩阵模型可以扩展应用到根茎型木本克隆植物这类特殊生活型植物的种群数量动态研究上。     

浙江省松阳县黄山松种群的密度与生物量动态

 本文研究了浙江省松阳县关山源地区黄山松种群的密度与生物量动态以及它们之间的相互关系。黄山松是该地区森林演替中的先锋种群之一。在演替过程中,黄山松种群的动态可分成三个阶段。大约在黄山松种群入侵次生裸地的最初10年期间,种群的密度和生物量迅速增长(阶段Ⅰ)。此后,种群密度达到饱和,由于自疏作用出现以及其他阔叶树种的入侵,种群密度开始急剧下降,个体平均重量和种群生物量迅速增长(阶段Ⅱ),–3/2自疏定律适用于种群动态的此阶段。随着阔叶树种进入林冠层,虽然个体平均重量仍缓慢增长,黄山松种群的密度和种群生物量逐渐下降直至退出群落(阶段Ⅲ)。但在一些特殊生境中(如裸岩陡坡或山脊),黄山松种群可形成稳定的地形顶极群落,其种群密度、个体平均重量和种群生物量可长期维持相对稳定的状态。     

稻纵卷叶螟(Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guene''e)种群生命系统模型的研究

经过五年来对稻纵卷叶螟自然种群生命表的研究,组建了预测种群动态的生命系统模拟模型。本模型为一变维矩阵组合模型。除能随环境温度而改变矩阵维数外,采用生理年龄为矩阵步长。每一虫期内各个体的发育不一致,矩阵中各元素均为某些环境因素的函数,共组建有18个子模式。在输入起始日期,预测期限,水稻生育期,环境温、湿度和初始种群各年龄向量后,即可自动打印出逐日种群年龄向量及总虫量。计算机模拟曲线与实测曲线基本吻合。本模型可用来预测南京地区稻纵卷叶螟二代迁入峰后种群的发展以至第三代种群各虫态的起始虫量和发生期。     

Compartmental models and their application : Keith Godfrey,Academic Press,London, 1983, xiv+293 pp., $50.00

For the Leslie-matrix population projection model, a simple auxiliary quantity, termed the single-year reduced growth factor, is introduced and used to deduce bounds for the growth factor of the model, i.e. the dominant eigenvalue of the Leslie matrix involved. Extension to the case of internal survival in the age groups and reformulation of parameter sensitivity are briefly discussed.     

Modeling the population dynamics of annual plants with seed bank and density dependent effects

A model is proposed for the population dynamics of an annual plant (Sesbania vesicaria) with a seed bank (i.e. in which a proportion of seeds remain dormant for at least one year). A simple linear matrix model is deduced from the life cycle graph. The dominant eigenvalue of the projection matrix is estimated from demographic parameters derived from field studies. The estimated values for population growth rate () indicates that the study population should be experiencing a rapid exponential increase, but this was not the case in our population.The addition of density dependent effects on seedling survivorship and adult fecundity, effects for which field studies provide evidence, considerably improves our model. Depending on the demographic parameters, the model leads to stable equilibrium, oscillations, or chaos. Study of the behaviour of this model in the parameter space shows that the existence of a seed bank allows higher among-year variation of adult fecundity, without leaving the region of demographic stability. Field data obtained over 3 years confirm this prediction.     

Two paradigms of mathematical population biology. Attempting to synthesise

Whatever popular the slogan of nonlinear ecological interactions has been in theory, practical ecology professes the projection matrix paradigm, which is essentially linear, i.e., the linear matrix model paradigm for discrete-structured population dynamics. The dominant eigenvalue lamda1, of the projection matrix L is considered as a growth potential of the population. It provides for a quantitative measure of the fitness at which the species is adapted to the given environment, the measure being adequate and accurate, given the data of"identified individuals" type. The case of"identified individuals with unknown parents" bears uncertainty in the status-specific reproduction rates, which eliminates in a unique way (for a broad class of structures and life cycle graphs) by maximizing lamda1(L) under the constraints ensuing from the data and knowledge of species biology. The paradigm of linearity gives way to nonlinear models when modeled are species interactions, such as competition for shared resources, and where the outcome of interaction depends on the population structure of the competitors. This circumstance dictates a need for the synthesis of two paradigms, which is achieved in nonlinear matrix operators as models of interaction between the species whose populations are discrete-structured.     

Elasticity analysis of density-dependent matrix population models: the invasion exponent and its substitutes

In density-independent models, the population growth rate lambda measures population performance, and the perturbation analysis of lambda (its sensitivity and elasticity) plays an important role in demography. In density-dependent models, the invasion exponent lambdaI replaces lambda as a measure of population performance. The perturbation analysis of lambdaI reveals the effects of environmental changes and management actions, gives the direction and intensity of density-dependent natural selection on life history traits, and permits calculation of the sampling variance of the invasion exponent. Because density-dependent models require more data than density-independent models, it is tempting to look for substitutes for the invasion exponent, the sensitivity and elasticity of which can be calculated from a density-independent model. Here we examine the accuracy of two such substitutes: the dominant eigenvalue of the projection matrix evaluated at equilibrium (An) and the dominant eigenvalue of the matrix averaged over the attractor (A). Using a two-stage model that represents a wide range of life history types, we find that the elasticities of An or A often agree to within less than 5% error with those of the invasion exponent, even when population dynamics are chaotic. The exceptions are for semelparous life histories, especially when density-dependence affects fertility. This suggests that the elasticity analysis of density-independent models near equilibrium, or averaged over the attractor, provides useful information about the elasticity of the invasion exponent in density-dependent models.     

Matrix population model with density-dependent recruitment for assessment of age-structured wildlife populations

A logistic density-dependent matrix model is developed in which the matrices contain only parameters and recruitment is a function of adult population density. The model was applied to simulate introductions of white-tailed deer into an area; the fitted model predicted a carrying capacity of 215 deer, which was close to the observed carrying capacity of 220 deer. The rate of population increase depends on the dominant eigenvalue of the Leslie matrix, and the age structure of the simulated population approaches a stable age distribution at the carrying capacity, which was similar to that generated by the Leslie matrix. The logistic equation has been applied to study many phenomena, and the matrix model can be applied to these same processes. For example, random variation can be added to life history parameters, and population abundances generated with random effects on fecundity show both the affect of annual variation in fecundity and a longer-term pattern resulting from the age structure.     

The effect of epistasis on the excess of the additive and nonadditive variances after population bottlenecks

The effect of population bottlenecks on the components of the genetic variance generated by two neutral independent epistatic loci has been studied theoretically (VA, additive; VD, dominant; VAA, additive x additive; VAD, additive x dominant; VDD; dominant x dominant components of variance). Nonoverdominance and overdominance models were considered, covering all possible types of marginal gene action at the single locus level. The variance components in an infinitely large panmictic population (ancestral components) were compared with their expected values at equilibrium, after t consecutive bottlenecks of equal size N (derived components). Formulae were obtained in terms of allele frequencies and effects at each locus and the corresponding epistatic value. An excess of VA after bottlenecks can be assigned to two sources: (1) the spatiotemporal changes in the marginal average effects of gene substitution alpha(i), which are equal to zero only for additive gene action within and between loci; and (2) the covariance between alpha2(i) and the heterozygosity at the loci involved, which is generated by dominance, with or without epistasis. Numerical examples were analyzed, indicating that an increase in VA after bottlenecks will only occur if its ancestral value is minimal or very small. For the nonoverdominance model with weak reinforcing epistasis, that increase has been detected only for extreme frequencies of the negative allele at one or both loci. With strong epistasis, however, this result can be extended to a broad range of intermediate frequencies. With no epistasis, the same qualitative results were found, indicating that dominance can be considered as the primary cause of an increase in VA following bottlenecks. In parallel, the derived total nonadditive variance exceeded its ancestral value (V(NA) = V(D) + V(AA) + V(AD) + V(DD)) for a range of combinations of allele frequencies covering those for an excess of VA and for very large frequencies of the negative allele at both loci. For the overdominance model, an increase in V(A) and V(NA) was respectively observed for equilibrium (intermediate) frequencies at one or both loci or for extreme frequencies at both loci. For all models, the magnitude of the change of V(A) and V(NA) was inversely related to N and t. At low levels of inbreeding, the between-line variance was not affected by the type of gene action. For the models considered, the results indicate that it is unlikely that the rate of evolution may be accelerated after population bottlenecks, in spite of occasional increments of the derived V(A) over its ancestral value.     

Mutation-Selection Balance at a Modifier-of-Imprinting Locus

We propose a pair of population genetic models for a modifier-of-imprinting locus for which different genotypes imprint different proportions of an imprintable target locus in their gametes. The two models examine the situations in which imprinting is advantageous or disadvantageous, and we discuss three cases for which the modifier is respectively partially dominant, dominant, or recessive. The models predict the stable equilibrium frequencies of the mutant modifier and functionally diploid individuals in a large population in terms of up to four parameters: the mutation rate at the modifier locus, V; the selection coefficient against the disadvantageous phenotype, s; the proportion of unimprinted eggs produced by homozygotes for the mutant modifier, θ, and, in the partially dominant models, the dominance parameter, k. The equilibrium frequency of the mutant phenotypes is shown to be approximately twice that of standard Mendelian models: 2V/s or 4V/s when the modifier is recessive or dominant, respectively. Mathematical equivalences between these and nonimprinting models are noted.     

Demographic analysis of a dominant shrub (Cytisus scoparius): Prospects for encroachment control

Shrub encroachment in pastoral areas subsequent to land-use changes has become a major problem for biodiversity and pastoral resource conservation. Controlling encroachment by grazing is the most promising prospect at this time, but the impact of small domestic ruminants on the population dynamics of dominant shrubby species is still poorly understood. To control the rapid densification of dominant shrub populations means that we have to focus on the early stages of shrub colonisation. In this paper, we present a modelling approach that includes deterministic matrix modelling to understand demography strategy at the very beginning of shrub population growth and to identify potential targeted life stages for control. We collected demographic data over a period of 5 years on the European dominant shrub, Cytisus scoparius (Scotch broom; Fabaceae), which is often part of the heathlands that establish themselves on former permanent grasslands in Europe. Our results reveal a very high variation in flowering frequency between years and a large contribution of the seed bank to the total number of seedlings that emerge each year. Modelling shows that population growth is very vigorous and is not stopped by repeated “bad years” for seed production. Sensitivity analyses indicate that early life stage survival (seedling, juvenile) has the greatest impact on population growth. These results make it possible to identify juveniles as one of the best targets for control since they combine a high degree of sensitivity in terms of population demography, good palatability for domestic herbivores and easy accessibility within a management schedule.     

Using statistics to design and estimate vital rates in matrix population models for a perennial herb

Matrix population models are widely used to assess population status and to inform management decisions. Despite existing theories for building such models, model construction is often partially based on expert opinion. So far, model structure has received relatively little attention, although it may affect estimates of population dynamics. Here, we assessed the consequences of two published matrix structures (a 4 × 4 matrix based on expert opinion and a 10 × 10 matrix based on statistical modeling) for estimates of vital rates and stochastic population dynamics of the long-lived herb Astragalus scaphoides. We explored the ways in which choice of model structure alters the accuracy (i.e., mean) and precision (i.e., variance) of predicted population dynamics. We found that model structure had a negligible effect on the accuracy and precision of vital rates and stochastic stage distribution. However, the 10 × 10 matrix produced lower estimates of stochastic population growth rates than the 4 × 4 matrix, and more accurately predicted the observed trends in population abundance for three out of four study populations. Moreover, estimates of realized variation in population growth rate due to fluctuations in population stage structure over time were occasionally sensitive to matrix structure, suggesting differential roles of transient dynamics. Our study indicates that statistical modeling for choosing categories in matrix models might be preferable over expert opinion to accurately predict population trends and can provide a more objective way for model construction when the biological knowledge of the species is limited.     

Evaluation of the population dynamics of the forage legume (Lotus corniculatus), using matrix population models

The population dynamics of perennial crop plants are influenced by numerous factors, including management practices. Conditions in the field vary from year to year, and matrix population models are useful for evaluating population behaviour in relation to environmental variability. In Missouri, the stand persistence of birdsfoot trefoil ( Lotus corniculatus ), a perennial legume, is often limited by disease and poor seed production. A stage-based, matrix population model was developed to evaluate the population dynamics of birdsfoot trefoil in relation to clipping treatment. The plant growth stages represented in the model were seeds, seedlings, mature vegetative and reproductive plants. Two phases of population growth were evaluated in clipped and unclipped stands. Establishment-phase populations were characterized by relatively high mortality and low reproduction. Elasticity analysis indicated that growth of these populations was most sensitive to the survival of vegetative plants. Mature vegetative plants and seeds comprised the majority of surviving individuals in clipped and unclipped populations, respectively; however, establishment-phase populations under both management treatments tended toward extinction. Populations in the post-establishment phase of growth were characterized by relatively low mortality and high reproduction. Population growth in this phase of growth was most sensitive to seed production, and most individuals in these populations were at the seed stage.