Mangrove resilience to climate extreme events in a Colombian Caribbean Island

Extreme events affect coastal vegetation in several ways. They cause massive tree defoliations and mortality that carry changes in vegetation structure and floristic composition. In order to assess these changes in dry tropical forests, coastal vegetation and mangroves in El Rosario archipelago, and their relationship with extreme events between 2002 and 2014, Quickbird and Worldview Satellite images with uneven periodicity were analyzed and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was calculated for these vegetation covers. Time series analysis was performed to oceanographic and climate variables such as maximum wind velocity, daily precipitation, significant wave height, peak wave period and maximum and minimum air temperatures. The first two axes of a redundancy analysis explained 65% of data variance (p value ≤ 0.05) and showed that the decrease of the NDVI and extension of beach vegetation were related to increases in wind frequency and intensity. However, mangrove vegetation was benefited by the increase in the frequency of short drought events, although their NDVI decreased when these drought events became longer. Drought events were related to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) anomalies that had the strongest effects on coastal vegetation and dry forest, as shown by the minimum values of NDVI recorded in 2010. Mangrove vegetation was more resilient to such droughts and strong winds than coastal and dry forest vegetation due to their location along bays or surrounding internal lagoons.     

Observed relationships between El Niño‐Southern Oscillation,rainfall variability and vegetation and fire history on Halmahera,Maluku, Indonesia

A temporally high‐resolution palynological study of the uppermost section of core MD98‐2180 from Kau Bay, Halmahera, Indonesia, provides a vegetation and fire record covering the last 250 years. The record is compared with the Maluku Rainfall Index, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and southern hemisphere winter sea surface temperatures (SST) for the central Pacific Ocean based on instrumental data, as well as reconstructions of the SOI and the central Pacific SST and historically recorded El Niño events. The results show that significant El Niño events are generally associated with increased representation of Dipterocarpaceae pollen, probably reflecting the mass‐flowering of this taxon during El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) droughts, and elevated charcoal levels, reflecting a greater incidence of fires during these extremely dry periods, while humid phases show increased fern numbers. Our findings demonstrate that pollen records ‘ecological’ in scale can provide useful additional proxy records of ENSO events.     

Preliminary Evidence of the Importance of ENSO in Modifying Food Availability for White‐tailed Deer in a Mexican Tropical Dry Forest1

The influence of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on rainfall and its possible effect on availability of food for white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in a tropical dry forest in the Pacific coast of Mexico was studied. From 1977 to 2003 there were three significant El Niño and La Niña events. During El Niño years rainfall decreased during the wet season ( June to October) and increased during the dry season (November to May), with the opposite effect during La Niña years. Plant diversity was monitored in permanent plots during the wet and dry seasons of 1989–1993. The results provide evidence that ENSO events affect deer food availability, particularly in the dry season.     

Monitoring and predictive mapping of floristic biodiversity along a climatic gradient in ENSO's terrestrial core region,NW Peru

The tropical dry forests of NW Peru are heavily shaped by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), where especially El Niño brings rain to arid to semi-arid areas. However, the resulting effects on biodiversity patterns remain largely unknown as well as the effect of environmental variables on the floristic composition under varying rainfall patterns. Therefore, we studied the spatio-temporal effects of different ENSO episodes on floristic biodiversity along a climatic gradient ranging from the coastal desert to the Andean foothills. We sampled 50 vegetation plots in four years representing different ENSO episodes. To highlight the spatio-temporal changes in floristic composition and beta diversity across ENSO episodes, we predicted ordination scores with a Generalized Additive Model. We applied variation partitioning to test if topographic or edaphic variables gained in importance during more humid ENSO episodes. Additionally, we executed an irrigation–fertilization experiment to quantify the beneficial effects of the water–nutrient interaction under different simulated ENSO rainfall scenarios. Plant species richness increased under humid conditions during the humid La Niña (2012) and the moderate El Niño (2016), and slightly decreased under the very humid conditions during the coastal El Niño (2017). The spatial prediction revealed that specific vegetation formations became more pronounced with increasing water input, but that a large water surplus led to the disruption of the strict order along the climatic gradient. Edaphic and topographic variables gained in importance with increased water availability (2012 and 2016), however, this effect was not further amplified under very wet conditions (2017). The experiment showed that plant cover under Super Niño conditions was three times higher when fertilized. Overall, our spatial predictions concede detailed insights into spatio-temporal ecosystem dynamics in response to varying rainfall caused by different ENSO episodes while the results of the experiment can support farmers regarding a sustainable agrarian management.     

Coral reef resilience to thermal stress in the Eastern Tropical Pacific

Coral reefs worldwide are threatened by thermal stress caused by climate change. Especially devastating periods of coral loss frequently occur during El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events originating in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP). El Niño‐induced thermal stress is considered the primary threat to ETP coral reefs. An increase in the frequency and intensity of ENSO events predicted in the coming decades threatens a pan‐tropical collapse of coral reefs. During the 1982–1983 El Niño, most reefs in the Galapagos Islands collapsed, and many more in the region were decimated by massive coral bleaching and mortality. However, after repeated thermal stress disturbances, such as those caused by the 1997–1998 El Niño, ETP corals reefs have demonstrated regional persistence and resiliency. Using a 44 year dataset (1970–2014) of live coral cover from the ETP, we assess whether ETP reefs exhibit the same decline as seen globally for other reefs. Also, we compare the ETP live coral cover rate of change with data from the maximum Degree Heating Weeks experienced by these reefs to assess the role of thermal stress on coral reef survival. We find that during the period 1970–2014, ETP coral cover exhibited temporary reductions following major ENSO events, but no overall decline. Further, we find that ETP reef recovery patterns allow coral to persist under these El Niño‐stressed conditions, often recovering from these events in 10–15 years. Accumulative heat stress explains 31% of the overall annual rate of change of living coral cover in the ETP. This suggests that ETP coral reefs have adapted to thermal extremes to date, and may have the ability to adapt to near‐term future climate‐change thermal anomalies. These findings for ETP reef resilience may provide general insights for the future of coral reef survival and recovery elsewhere under intensifying El Niño scenarios.     

The effects of El Niño–La Niña on reproductive parameters of elephant seals feeding in the Bellingshausen Sea

Aim To assess the impacts of El Niño–La Niña events on the pup weaning mass and diet of female southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) feeding in the Bellingshausen Sea, Antarctica, and to understand the ecological processes that drive these impacts. Location Atlantic southern elephant seal weaning mass and diet were measured at King George Island (62º14′ S, 58º30′ W). Feeding areas for pregnant female seals from King George Island are located west of Alexander Island in the Bellingshausen Sea. Methods Data on weaning mass were collected between 1985 and 1994 during the breeding season (September–November). Moulting females were anaesthetized and cephalopod beaks were isolated and identified from stomach contents obtained from stomach lavages. Sea‐surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) data for the ‘El Niño 3.4’ geographical region (5º N–5º S, 120º W–170º W) were used to define El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event years (grouped as El Niño, La Niña and Neutral) as well as the strength of each ENSO event year. Using data from the US National Center for Environmental Prediction, temperature, sea ice concentration and atmospheric pressure anomalies in the Bellingshausen Sea were calculated from March to August, corresponding to the feeding period of pregnant female seals. Results Positive temperature anomalies and negative pressure anomalies in the Bellingshausen Sea were observed during La Niña years and negative temperature anomalies and positive pressure anomalies during El Niño years. These data correlate with sea ice concentration anomalies, which are highly negative during La Niña years and highly positive during El Niño years. Warm temperature conditions in the Bellingshausen Sea during La Niña years are strongly related to both higher weaning mass in elephant seals and to an increase in squid beaks in the stomach contents of females. Main conclusions It is possible that higher elephant seal weaning masses in La Niña years correlate with warmer waters in the Bellingshausen Sea leading to the rapid growth of squid and their more frequent descents to depths frequented by elephant seals. This results in increased predation by pregnant females, leading to a greater mass among weaned pups. This hypothesis may guide future research about interactions between climate and the marine biosphere.     

Teleconnection between tree growth in the Amazonian floodplains and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation effect

There is a limited knowledge about the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects on the Amazon basin, the world's largest tropical rain forest and a major factor in the global carbon cycle. Seasonal precipitation in the Andean watershed annually causes a several month‐long inundation of the floodplains along the Amazon River that induces the formation of annual rings in trees of the flooded forests. Radial growth of trees is mainly restricted to the nonflooded period and thus the ring width corresponds to its duration. This allows the construction of a tree‐ring chronology of the long‐living hardwood species Piranhea trifoliata Baill. (Euphorbiaceae). El Niño causes anomalously low precipitation in the catchment that results in a significantly lower water discharge of the Amazon River and consequently in an extension of the vegetation period. In those years tree rings are significantly wider. Thus the tree‐ring record can be considered as a robust indicator reflecting the mean climate conditions of the whole Western Amazon basin. We present a more than 200‐year long chronology, which is the first ENSO‐sensitive dendroclimatic proxy of the Amazon basin and permits the dating of preinstrumental El Niño events. Time series analyses of our data indicate that during the last two centuries the severity of El Niño increased significantly.     

Climate‐growth analysis for a Mexican dry forest tree shows strong impact of sea surface temperatures and predicts future growth declines

Tropical forests will experience relatively large changes in temperature and rainfall towards the end of this century. Little is known about how tropical trees will respond to these changes. We used tree rings to establish climate‐growth relations of a pioneer tree, Mimosa acantholoba, occurring in tropical dry secondary forests in southern Mexico. The role of large‐scale climatic drivers in determining interannual growth variation was studied by correlating growth to sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, including the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Annual growth varied eightfold over 1970–2007, and was correlated with wet season rainfall (r=0.75). Temperature, cloud cover and solar variation did not affect growth, although these climate variables correlated with growth due to their relations with rainfall. Strong positive correlations between growth and SSTA occurred in the North tropical Atlantic during the first half of the year, and in the Pacific during the second half of the year. The Pacific influence corresponded closely to ENSO‐like influences with negative effects of high SSTA in the eastern Pacific Niño3.4 region on growth due to decreases in rainfall. During El Niño years growth was reduced by 37%. We estimated how growth would be affected by the predicted trend of decreasing rainfall in Central America towards the end of this century. Using rainfall predictions of two sets of climate models, we estimated that growth at the end of this century will be reduced by 12% under a medium (A1B) and 21% under a high (A2) emission scenario. These results suggest that climate change may have repercussions for the carbon sequestration capacity of tropical dry forests in the region.     

Application of remote sensing to site characterisation and environmental change analysis of North African coastal lagoons

This article describes the use of satellite imagery for identifying key environmental characteristics within three North African coastal lagoons (Merja Zerga, Morocco; Ghar El Melh, Tunisia and Lake Manzala, Egypt) and for detecting the major environmental changes within these environments. A combination of Landsat MSS, Landsat TM, Landsat ETM+ and ASTER imagery was acquired for the three sites for a period covering the last three decades (1972–2004). Following geometric correction and enhancement, the interpretation of the most recent image acquired for each of the three lagoons provides important insights into their current conditions. For Merja Zerga, these include the distribution of the largest channels which drain extensive inter-tidal mudflats and the two major depositional features associated with sources of freshwater. The distribution of marginal aquatic vegetation is highlighted as is the intensive use of the surrounding landscape for agriculture. Intensive agriculture around Ghar El Melh is also indicated. The influence of the Mejerda River, which was diverted away from the lagoon over 100 years ago, is shown to persist as a residual area of deltaic deposits in shallow water that has been eroded over time. Coastal processes including the direction of the alongshore sediment transport and the influence of engineering work associated with port construction can also be recognised. Within Lake Manzala, vegetated islands divide the lake into a series of sub-basins which can be clearly distinguished. The large influence of human activities within this lake can be identified and include reclamation for agriculture and the conversion of parts of the lake bed for fish farms. The historical images available for the three lagoons provide important insights into decadal scale changes, which have been greatest at Lake Manzala. Since the early 1970s large parts of the lake, in particular in the southwest where the shoreline has migrated northwards, have been reclaimed. Major engineering works, such as the El Salam Canal and road embankments, are shown to have resulted in significant lake change. The distribution of emergent vegetation within the lake has also changed. Classification of images for this lake into open water, vegetation and land enables the quantification of these changes. Between 1973 and 2003, the lake declined in area by approximately 50%. Changes at Merja Zerga over the last three decades include reconfiguration of the marine outlet and the expansion of the internal delta at the end of the Nador Canal. The images of this site clearly demonstrate the intensification of agriculture around the lagoon. The most marked changes evident within the images of Ghar El Melh concern the sand bars that separate the lagoon from the sea. Geomorphological processes operating within the coastal zone have resulted in the straightening of the bars with central sections migrating out towards the sea. Remote sensing is established as a promising application for detecting the quantitative surface cover changes in coastal lagoons and their near landscapes. Guest editors: J. R. Thompson & R. J. Flower Hydro-ecological Monitoring and Modelling of North African Coastal Lagoons     

Climate fluctuation effects on breeding of blue penguins (Eudyptula minor)

Abstract

El Niño and La Niña climate perturbations alter sea currents and food availability for seabirds in many areas of the world. This changes their breeding success and mortality. Blue penguin (Eudyptula minor) breeding success is dependent upon whether one or two clutches per season are laid, and the hatching and fledging success of these clutches. This study uses six years of data from five blue penguin breeding colonies, three from Taiaroa Head, Otago Peninsula and two from Oamaru, to examine whether annual variation in breeding success correlates with El Niño/La Niña perturbations. When La Niña conditions prevailed, penguins started breeding later, and there was a lower proportion of double breeders than in El Niño and normal years. The probability of a newly hatched chick surviving to fledging was also dependent on whether large‐scale climatic conditions prevailed, whereas hatching success and overall breeding success (number of fledged chicks per breeding pair) showed no correlation with climate perturbations.     

Short‐term propagation of rainfall perturbations on terrestrial ecosystems in central California

Question: Does vegetation buffer or amplify rainfall perturbations, and is it possible to forecast rainfall using mesoscale climatic signals? Location: Central California (USA). Methods: The risk of dry or wet rainfall events was evaluated using conditional probabilities of rainfall depending on El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The propagation of rainfall perturbations on vegetation was calculated using cross‐correlations between monthly seasonally adjusted (SA) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), and SA antecedent rainfall at different time‐scales. Results: In this region, El Niño events are associated with higher than normal winter precipitation (probability of 73%). Opposite but more predictable effects are found for La Niña events (89% probability of dry events). Chaparral and evergreen forests showed the longest persistence of rainfall effects (0‐8 months). Grasslands and wetlands showed low persistence (0‐2 months), with wetlands dominated by non‐stationary patterns. Within the region, the NDVI spatial patterns associated with higher (lower) rainfall are homogeneous (heterogeneous), with the exception of evergreen forests. Conclusions: Knowledge of the time‐scale of lagged effects of the non‐seasonal component of rainfall on vegetation greenness, and the risk of winter rainfall anomalies lays the foundation for developing a forecasting model for vegetation greenness. Our results also suggest greater competitive advantage for perennial vegetation in response to potential rainfall increases in the region associated with climate change predictions, provided that the soil allows storing extra rainfall.     

El Niño episodes coincide with California moray Gymnothorax mordax settlement around Santa Catalina Island,California

The hypothesis that El Niño events influence the settlement patterns of the California moray Gymnothorax mordax is tested. The pelagic larval duration (PLD) of larval G. mordax is unknown, but studies on leptocephalus of related species suggest that larvae are long‐lived, up to 2 years. Gymnothorax mordax, an elusive predatory species and the only muraenid off the coast of California, is considered abundant in the waters around Catalina Island. Thirty‐three individuals were collected from Two Harbors, Catalina Island, and otoliths were taken to provide estimates of their age. Settlement year for each individual was backcalculated using estimated age from otolith measurements. These ages were then cross referenced with the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) developed by the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to correlate estimated age of settlement with known El Niño years. Of the 33 individuals collected, 30 settled at Catalina Island during El Niño years. The oldest individual in the data‐set was 22 years old, placing G. mordax as one of the longer‐lived predatory fishes in the system. The present study represents the first account of wild G. mordax ages and suggests that El Niño events have an important role in driving the settlement of recruits towards the northern edge of their range.     

Influence of precipitation seasonality on piñon pine cellulose δD values

The influence of seasonal to interannual climate variations on cellulose hydrogen isotopic composition (δD) was assessed by analysing tree rings and needles of piñon pine (Pinus edulis and P. monophylla). Sites spanned a gradient of decreasing summer precipitation, from New Mexico to Arizona to Nevada. Tree rings were divided into earlywood, latewood and whole‐year increments, and annual cohorts of needles were collected. The study period (1989–96) included two La Niña events (1989, 1996) and a prolonged El Niño event (1991–95). Winter and spring moisture conditions were strongly related to October–March Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) in New Mexico and Arizona, with above‐average precipitation occurring in El Niño years. Wood δD values at these sites were correlated with winter and spring moisture conditions. Needle δD values were correlated with summer moisture conditions in New Mexico and with winter moisture and SOI in Arizona. Low cellulose δD values observed from 1991 to 1993 in both wood and needles occurred during wet El Niño years, whereas high δD values in needles were present during the dry, La Niña years of 1989 and 1996. North‐eastern Nevada does not receive precipitation anomalies related to ENSO, and thus cellulose δD values did not reflect the ENSO pattern observed at the other sites. Cellulose δD values were strongly, inversely correlated with relative humidity variations at all sites, as predicted by a mechanistic model. Contrary to predictions from the same model and observations from more mesic areas, time series of cellulose δD values were not directly correlated with interannual or seasonal variations in precipitation δD values or temperature at any of the sites. On a regional basis, however, mean δD values in needles and wood were correlated with mean annual temperature and δD values of precipitation. This suggests that temporal averaging may bias relationships between biological systems and climate.     

El Niño,grazers and fisheries interact to greatly elevate extinction risk for Galapagos marine species

Comparisons between historical and recent ecological datasets indicate that shallow reef habitats across the central Galapagos Archipelago underwent major transformation at the time of the severe 1982/1983 El Niño warming event. Heavily grazed reefs with crustose coralline algae (‘urchin barrens’) replaced former macroalgal and coral habitats, resulting in large local and regional declines in biodiversity. Following recent threat assessment workshops, a total of five mammals, six birds, five reptiles, six fishes, one echinoderm, seven corals, six brown algae and nine red algae reported from coastal environments in Galapagos are now recognized as globally threatened. The 2008 International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List includes 43 of these species, while two additional species (Galapagos damsel Azurina eupalama and 24‐rayed sunstar Heliaster solaris) not seen for > 25 years also fulfil IUCN threatened species criteria. Two endemic species (Galapagos stringweed Bifurcaria galapagensis and the damselfish A. eupalama) are now regarded as probably extinct, while an additional six macroalgal species (Dictyota galapagensis, Spatoglossum schmittii, Desmarestia tropica, Phycodrina elegans, Gracilaria skottsbergii and Galaxaura barbata) and the seastar H. solaris are possibly extinct. The removal of large lobster and fish predators by artisanal fishing probably magnified impacts of the 1982/1983 El Niño through a cascade of indirect effects involving population expansion of grazing sea urchins. Marine protected areas with adequate enforcement are predicted to ameliorate but not eliminate ecosystem impacts caused by increasing thermal anomalies associated with El Niño and global climate change.     

SCALE‐DEPENDENT PATTERNS OF DISTURBANCE AND RECOVERY IN GIANT KELP FORESTS

We studied spatial variability in giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) forests at 84 sites along the west coast of North America in order to assess the impacts of the 1997–98 El Niño. Our sites spanned the geographic range of giant kelp in the Northern Hemisphere and were surveyed just before, immediately following, several months after, more than one year after, and nearly two years after the El Niño. Interspersion of sample units allowed us to compare the effects of this disturbance among spatial scales ranging from a few meters to more than a thousand kilometers. Variance components analyses revealed that El Niño shifted the relative importance of factors that regulate giant kelp communities from factors acting at the scale of a few meters (local control) to factors operating at hundreds of kilometers (regional control). Moreover, El Niño resulted in a near‐to‐complete loss of giant kelp populations throughout nearly two‐thirds of the species' range. Evaluation of these effects along with oceanographic data (at the “appropriate” spatial scales), along with closer examination of giant kelp populations in the most severely impacted region (Baja) suggested that the among‐region differences in giant kelp survival was due, at least in part, to El Niño‐induced differences in ocean climate. Giant kelp recovery following El Niño was also scale‐dependent, but driven by factors different from those of the disturbance. Here, we present results for several species of macroalgae in an attempt to relate the importance of El Niño to that of other processes in creating scale‐dependent patterns of variability.     

Effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation on avian breeding phenology

Aim

Climate oscillations are known to influence the reproductive phenology of birds. Here, we quantify the effects of cyclic climatic variation, specifically El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), on birds that breed opportunistically. We aim to show how inter‐decadal climate fluctuations influence opportunistic breeding. This knowledge is essential for tracking the phenological responses of birds to climate change.

Location

Temperate and arid Australia.

Methods

We assessed variation in egg‐laying (start, peak, conclusion, length) during the three phases of ENSO (El Niño, La Niña and Neutral) for 64 temperate and 15 arid region species using ~80,000 observations. Linear mixed‐effect models and analysis of variance were used to (1) determine if, on average within each region, egg‐laying dates differed significantly among species between Neutral‐El Niño and Neutral‐La Niña phases, and (2) assess how La Niña and El Niño episodes influence egg‐laying in birds which breed early in the year.

Results

During La Niña phases, which are characterized by mild/wet conditions, most bird species in the temperate and arid regions exhibited longer egg‐laying periods relative to Neutral phases. However, there was substantial variation across species. This effect was strongly seasonal; species breeding in spring experienced the greatest increases in egg‐laying periods during La Niña. Further, we found only small differences in peak egg‐laying dates during Neutral and La Niña in the arid region; suggesting that hot temperatures may constrain breeding regardless of rainfall. The effects of El Niño on breeding phenology were not consistent in the temperate and arid regions and may be confounded by highly mobile species opportunistically moving and breeding with localized rainfall during dry periods.

Main conclusions

In both arid and temperate regions, increased rainfall associated with La Niña phases positively influences avian breeding, and likely recruitment. However, dry El Niño phases may not have the dramatic impacts on breeding phenology that are commonly assumed.

     

El Niño,Host Plant Growth,and Migratory Butterfly Abundance in a Changing Climate

In the wet forests of Panama, El Niño typically brings a more prolonged and severe dry season. Interestingly, many trees and lianas that comprise the wet forests increase their productivity as a response to El Niño. Here, we quantify the abundance of migrating Marpesia chiron butterflies over 17 yr and the production of new leaves of their hostplants over 9 yr to test the generality of the El Niño migration syndrome, i.e., whether increased abundance of migrating insects and productivity of their food plants are associated with El Niño and La Niña events. We find that the quantity of M. chiron migrating across the Panama Canal was directly proportional to the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly of the Pacific Ocean, which characterizes El Niño and La Niña events. We also find that production of new leaves by its larval host trees, namely Brosimum alicastrum, Artocarpus altilis, and Ficus citrifolia, was directly proportional to the SST anomaly, with greater leaf flushing occurring during the period of the annual butterfly migration that followed an El Niño event. Combining these and our previously published results for the migratory butterfly Aphrissa statira and its host lianas, we conclude that dry season rainfall and photosynthetically active radiation can serve as primary drivers of larval food production and insect population outbreaks in Neotropical wet forests, with drier years resulting in enhanced plant productivity and herbivore abundance. Insect populations should closely track changes in both frequency and amplitude of the El Niño Southern Oscillation with climate change.     

Global vegetation productivity response to climatic oscillations during the satellite era

Climate control on global vegetation productivity patterns has intensified in response to recent global warming. Yet, the contributions of the leading internal climatic variations to global vegetation productivity are poorly understood. Here, we use 30 years of global satellite observations to study climatic variations controls on continental and global vegetation productivity patterns. El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases (La Niña, neutral, and El Niño years) appear to be a weaker control on global‐scale vegetation productivity than previously thought, although continental‐scale responses are substantial. There is also clear evidence that other non‐ENSO climatic variations have a strong control on spatial patterns of vegetation productivity mainly through their influence on temperature. Among the eight leading internal climatic variations, the East Atlantic/West Russia Pattern extensively controls the ensuing year vegetation productivity of the most productive tropical and temperate forest ecosystems of the Earth's vegetated surface through directionally consistent influence on vegetation greenness. The Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) simulations do not capture the observed patterns of vegetation productivity responses to internal climatic variations. Our analyses show the ubiquitous control of climatic variations on vegetation productivity and can further guide CCSM and other Earth system models developments to represent vegetation response patterns to unforced variability. Several winter time internal climatic variation indices show strong potentials on predicting growing season vegetation productivity two to six seasons ahead which enables national governments and farmers forecast crop yield to ensure supplies of affordable food, famine early warning, and plan management options to minimize yield losses ahead of time.     

Extreme plasticity in life‐history strategy allows a migratory predator (jumbo squid) to cope with a changing climate

Dosidicus gigas (jumbo or Humboldt squid) is a semelparous, major predator of the eastern Pacific that is ecologically and commercially important. In the Gulf of California, these animals mature at large size (>55 cm mantle length) in 1–1.5 years and have supported a major commercial fishery in the Guaymas Basin during the last 20 years. An El Niño event in 2009–2010, was accompanied by a collapse of this fishery, and squid in the region showed major changes in the distribution and life‐history strategy. Large squid abandoned seasonal coastal‐shelf habitats in 2010 and instead were found in the Salsipuedes Basin to the north, an area buffered from the effects of El Niño by tidal upwelling and a well‐mixed water column. The commercial fishery also relocated to this region. Although large squid were not found in the Guaymas Basin from 2010 to 2012, small squid were abundant and matured at an unusually small mantle‐length (<30 cm) and young age (approximately 6 months). Juvenile squid thus appeared to respond to El Niño with an alternative life‐history trajectory in which gigantism and high fecundity in normally productive coastal‐shelf habitats were traded for accelerated reproduction at small size in an offshore environment. Both small and large mature squid, were present in the Salsipuedes Basin during 2011, indicating that both life‐ history strategies can coexist. Hydro‐acoustic data, reveal that squid biomass in this study area nearly doubled between 2010 and 2011, primarily due to a large increase in small squid that were not susceptible to the fishery. Such a climate‐driven switch in size‐at‐maturity may allow D. gigas to rapidly adapt to and cope with El Niño. This ability is likely to be an important factor in conjunction with longerterm climate‐change and the potential ecological impacts of this invasive predator on marine ecosystems.     

El Niño,Climate, and Cholera Associations in Piura,Peru, 1991–2001: A Wavelet Analysis

In Peru, it was hypothesized that epidemic cholera in 1991 was linked to El Niño, the warm phase of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. While previous studies demonstrated an association in 1997–1998, using cross-sectional data, they did not assess the consistency of this relationship across the decade. Thus, how strong or variable an El Niño–cholera relationship was in Peru or whether El Niño triggered epidemic cholera early in the decade remains unknown. In this study, wavelet and mediation analyses were used to characterize temporal patterns among El Niño, local climate variables (rainfall, river discharge, and air temperature), and cholera incidence in Piura, Peru from 1991 to 2001 and to estimate the mediating effects of local climate on El Niño–cholera relationships. The study hypothesis is that El Niño-related connections with cholera in Piura were transient and interconnected via local climate pathways. Overall, our findings provide evidence that a strong El Niño–cholera link, mediated by local hydrology, existed in the latter part of the 1990s but found no evidence of an El Niño association in the earlier part of the decade, suggesting that El Niño may not have precipitated cholera emergence in Piura. Further examinations of cholera epicenters in Peru are recommended to support these results in Piura. For public health planning, the results may improve existing efforts that utilize El Niño monitoring for preparedness during future climate-related extremes in the region.