Modelling range shifts and assessing genetic diversity distribution of the montane aquatic mayfly Ameletus inopinatus in Europe under climate change scenarios

Genetic diversity is one of the most important criteria to identify unique populations for conservation purposes. In this study we analyze the genetic population structure of the endangered montane mayfly Ameletus inopinatus in its European range. The species is restricted to unpolluted cold-water streams, and exhibits an insular distribution across highlands of Central Europe and a more continuous distribution across Fennoscandia and Northern Euro-Siberia. We genotyped 389 individuals from 31 populations for eight highly polymorphic microsatellite loci to investigate genetic diversity and population structure within and among European mountain ranges. Genetic diversity of A. inopinatus decreases along an east?Cwest gradient in Central Europe and along a north?Csouth gradient in Fennoscandia, respectively. Centres of exceptionally high genetic diversity are located in the Eastern Alps (Andertal Moor, Austria), the High Tatra, the Beskides, the Sudety Mountains and the Eastern German Highlands. Species distribution modelling for 2080 projects major regional habitat loss, particularly in Central Europe mountain ranges. By relating these range shifts to our population genetic results, we identify conservation units primarily in Eastern Europe, that if preserved would maintain high levels of the present-day genetic diversity and continue to provide long-term suitable habitat under future climate warming scenarios.     

Isolated remnant or recent introduction? Estimating the provenance of Yellingbo Leadbeater's possums by genetic analysis and bottleneck simulation

Effective conservation management requires that genetically divergent populations potentially harbouring important local adaptations be identified and maintained as separate management units. In the case of the endangered Australian Leadbeater's possum (Gymnobelideus leadbeateri), an arboreal marsupial endemic to Victoria, uncertainty over the evolutionary origin of a potentially important extant wild population recently discovered in atypical habitat (lowland swamp) at Yellingbo is hampering such efforts. The population is rumoured to be a recent introduction. Microsatellite allele frequencies at Yellingbo differed substantially from those in sampled populations in montane ash forest (F_ST between 0.23 and 0.36), and Bayesian clustering analyses of genotypes strongly separated them (K = 2). We conducted a suite of bottlenecking tests which all indicated that Yellingbo had undergone a recent reduction in size. The extent to which the distinctiveness of Yellingbo animals might be expected solely through bottlenecking associated with a recent introduction, was tested by simulating population–history scenarios seeded with genotypes from candidate wild and captive sources. No bottleneck scenario reproduced anything approaching the genetic distinction of the Yellingbo population, with all structure analyses placing Yellingbo in a separate cluster to simulated populations (K = 2, minimum F_ST = 0.13). These results suggest that Yellingbo does not share recent ancestry with other extant populations and instead may be a remnant of an otherwise extinct gene pool. Importantly, this may include genes involved in adaptation to a lowland swamp environment, substantially adding to the conservation importance of this population, and suggesting that separate management may be prudent until evidence suggests otherwise.     

Predicting the abundance of hollow-bearing trees in montane forests of southeastern Australia

Poisson regression analyses were used to relate the number of hollow-bearing trees on 523 sites in the montane ash forests of the Central Highlands of Victoria to a range of environmental variables. Region, logging history, the dominant species of eucalypt, slope angle, topographic position and the age of the stand influenced significantly the number of hollow-bearing trees. A simple predictive model containing these factors has possible application in geographic information systems and may assist in the assessment of wildlife habitat. The number of multi-aged stands and living trees with fire scars indicates that some individuals of ‘fire-sensitive’ montane ash eucalypts appear to survive intense wildfire.     

A biogeoclimatic analysis of Nothofagus cunninghamii (Hook.) Oerst. in southeastern Australia

The geographical limits of Nothofagus cunninghamii are highly correlated with climate and appear to be more or less in equilibrium with the climate of the present century in all but one of the areas of its present range. It is suggested that suitable climates for the species occur in the highlands of northeastern Victoria and southern New South Wales, beyond its present range, and it is possible that it occurred within the predicted area prior to the last ice age. It is suggested that populations of N. cunninghamii along the northeastern edge of its present range in the Central Highlands of Victoria may be migrating northeast along a narrow corridor of apparently suitable climate to re-occupy the postulated former range. The rate of migration would be expected to be extremely slow because of the poor dispersal ability of the species and the adverse impact of recurrent fires.     

Patterns of co-occurrence among arboreal marsupials in the forests of central Victoria,southeastern Australia

Abstract Patterns of co-occurrence were examined among the suite of species of arboreal marsupials that inhabit the montane ash forests of the Central Highlands of Victoria, southeastern Australia. The data used in our analyses were counts of different species of arboreal marsupials derived from stagwatching surveys of 152 sites throughout the Central Highlands region. Our work investigated both the number of species that tend to occur together, as well as identity of the taxa in such associations. A total of eight different species of arboreal marsupials were recorded from field surveys of montane ash forests: Leadbeater's Possum (Gymnobelideus leadbeateri), Sugar Glider (Petaurus breviceps), Yellow-bellied Glider (Petaurus australis), Greater Glider (Petauroides volans), Mountain Brushtail Possum (Trichosurus caninus), Feathertail Glider (Acrobates pygmaeus), Common Ringtail Possum (Pseudocheirusperegrinus), and Eastern Pygmy Possum (Cercartetus nanus). Large assemblages of taxa were rare and no sites supported the full array of species of arboreal marsupials– the maximum number of species recorded on a given 3 ha site was five. The results of our analyses indicated that if any one species of arboreal marsupials was present at a site, then on average 1. 5 other taxa will co-inhabit that site. The exception was the Common Ringtail Possum. When this species was detected, few other arboreal marsupial taxa tended to be recorded with it. Principal Co-ordinates Analysis showed that although combinations of animals comprised of either Mountain Brushtail Possum, Leadbeater's Possum, or Greater Glider were often recorded, there were no strong patterns in the identities of co-occurring taxa. This finding, together with the result that most taxa in these forests typically co-occurred with one or two other species, indicates that none of the arboreal marsupials inhabiting the montane ash forests of the Central Highlands of Victoria would be a good surrogate for (or ‘indicator’ of), the presence of the suite of other species in the assemblage.     

Tracking climate change in a dispersal-limited species: reduced spatial and genetic connectivity in a montane salamander

Tropical montane taxa are often locally adapted to very specific climatic conditions, contributing to their lower dispersal potential across complex landscapes. Climate and landscape features in montane regions affect population genetic structure in predictable ways, yet few empirical studies quantify the effects of both factors in shaping genetic structure of montane-adapted taxa. Here, we considered temporal and spatial variability in climate to explain contemporary genetic differentiation between populations of the montane salamander, Pseudoeurycea leprosa. Specifically, we used ecological niche modelling (ENM) and measured spatial connectivity and gene flow (using both mtDNA and microsatellite markers) across extant populations of P. leprosa in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TVB). Our results indicate significant spatial and genetic isolation among populations, but we cannot distinguish between isolation by distance over time or current landscape barriers as mechanisms shaping population genetic divergences. Combining ecological niche modelling, spatial connectivity analyses, and historical and contemporary genetic signatures from different classes of genetic markers allows for inference of historical evolutionary processes and predictions of the impacts future climate change will have on the genetic diversity of montane taxa with low dispersal rates. Pseudoeurycea leprosa is one montane species among many endemic to this region and thus is a case study for the continued persistence of spatially and genetically isolated populations in the highly biodiverse TVB of central Mexico.     

Whole range and regional‐based ecological niche models predict differing exposure to 21st century climate change in the key cool temperate rainforest tree southern beech (Nothofagus cunninghamii)

The warmer and drier climates projected for the mid‐ to late‐21st century may have particularly adverse impacts on the cool temperate rainforests of southeastern Australia. Southern beech (Nothofagus cunninghamii; Nothofagaceae), a dominant tree species in these forests, may be vulnerable to minor changes in its climate envelope, especially at the edge of the species range, with Holocene fossil evidence showing local extinction of populations in response to small climate changes. We modelled the stability of this species climate envelope using the maximum entropy algorithm implemented in Maxent and two thresholds of presence/absence by projecting the modern climate envelope onto four Global Circulation Models forecasted for two time periods (2050s and 2070s). The climate envelope, as estimated from the species present climatic range, is predicted to shrink by up to 49% by the 2050s and up to 64% by the 2070s. The greatest predicted reduction is in Victoria with 91–100% of its current range being climatically unsuitable by the 2070s. Climatically similar areas to the species present range are predicted to remain in mountainous areas of western Tasmania, the Northeast Highlands of Tasmania, and the Baw Baw Plateau in the Central Highlands of Victoria. However, region‐specific modelling approaches made very different predictions from the whole‐range based models, especially in the severity of the predicted decline for Victorian populations of N. cunninghamii which occur in much warmer climates than the rest of the species geographical range. This shows that, for widespread species that span a range of climate zones, the exposure of current populations to climate change may be better modelled using a regional based approach. How the species responds to climate change will depend on the species ability to respond to drier and warmer climates and the concomitant increase in fire intensity.     

Differentiation in neutral genes and a candidate gene in the pied flycatcher: using biological archives to track global climate change

Global climate change is one of the major driving forces for adaptive shifts in migration and breeding phenology and possibly impacts demographic changes if a species fails to adapt sufficiently. In Western Europe, pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) have insufficiently adapted their breeding phenology to the ongoing advance of food peaks within their breeding area and consequently suffered local population declines. We address the question whether this population decline led to a loss of genetic variation, using two neutral marker sets (mitochondrial control region and microsatellites), and one potentially selectively non‐neutral marker (avian Clock gene). We report temporal changes in genetic diversity in extant populations and biological archives over more than a century, using samples from sites differing in the extent of climate change. Comparing genetic differentiation over this period revealed that only the recent Dutch population, which underwent population declines, showed slightly lower genetic variation than the historic Dutch population. As that loss of variation was only moderate and not observed in all markers, current gene flow across Western and Central European populations might have compensated local loss of variation over the last decades. A comparison of genetic differentiation in neutral loci versus the Clock gene locus provided evidence for stabilizing selection. Furthermore, in all genetic markers, we found a greater genetic differentiation in space than in time. This pattern suggests that local adaptation or historic processes might have a stronger effect on the population structure and genetic variation in the pied flycatcher than recent global climate changes.     

Predicting the effects of climate change on population connectivity and genetic diversity of an imperiled freshwater mussel,Cumberlandia monodonta (Bivalvia: Margaritiferidae), in riverine systems

In the face of global climate change, organisms may respond to temperature increases by shifting their ranges poleward or to higher altitudes. However, the direction of range shifts in riverine systems is less clear. Because rivers are dendritic networks, there is only one dispersal route from any given location to another. Thus, range shifts are only possible if branches are connected by suitable habitat, and stream‐dwelling organisms can disperse through these branches. We used Cumberlandia monodonta (Bivalvia: Unionoida: Margaritiferidae) as a model species to investigate the effects of climate change on population connectivity because a majority of contemporary populations are panmictic. We combined ecological niche models (ENMs) with population genetic simulations to investigate the effects of climate change on population connectivity and genetic diversity of C. monodonta. The ENMs were constructed using bioclimatic and landscape data to project shifts in suitable habitat under future climate scenarios. We then used forward‐time simulations to project potential changes in genetic diversity and population connectivity based on these range shifts. ENM results under current conditions indicated long stretches of highly suitable habitat in rivers where C. monodonta persists; populations in the upper Mississippi River remain connected by suitable habitat that does not impede gene flow. Future climate scenarios projected northward and headwater‐ward range contraction and drastic declines in habitat suitability for most extant populations throughout the Mississippi River Basin. Simulations indicated that climate change would greatly reduce genetic diversity and connectivity across populations. Results suggest that a single, large population of C. monodonta will become further fragmented into smaller populations, each of which will be isolated and begin to differentiate genetically. Because C. monodonta is a widely distributed species and purely aquatic, our results suggest that persistence and connectivity of stream‐dwelling organisms will be significantly altered in response to future climate change.     

Anthropogenic refugia ameliorate the severe climate-related decline of a montane mammal along its trailing edge

We conducted detailed resurveys of a montane mammal, Urocitellus beldingi, to examine the effects of climate change on persistence along the trailing edge of its range. Of 74 California sites where U. beldingi were historically recorded (1902-1966), 42 per cent were extirpated, with no evidence for colonization of previously unoccupied sites. Increases in both precipitation and temperature predicted site extirpations, potentially owing to snowcover loss. Surprisingly, human land-use change buffered climate change impacts, leading to increased persistence and abundance. Excluding human-modified sites, U. beldingi has shown an upslope range retraction of 255 m. Generalized additive models of past distribution were predictive of modern range contractions (AUC = 0.76) and projected extreme reductions (52% and 99%, respectively) of U. beldingi's southwestern range to 2080 climates (Hadley and CCCMA A2). Our study suggests the strong impacts of climate change on montane species at their trailing edge and how anthropogenic refugia may mitigate these effects.     

Effects of ecogeographic variables on genetic variation in montane mammals: implications for conservation in a global warming scenario

Aim Evolutionary theory predicts that levels of genetic variation in island populations will be positively correlated with island area and negatively correlated with island isolation. These patterns have been empirically established for oceanic islands, but little is known about the determinants of variation on habitat islands. The goals of this study were twofold. Our first aim was to test whether published patterns of genetic variation in mammals occurring on montane habitat islands in the American Southwest conformed to expectations based on evolutionary theory. The second aim of this research was to develop simple heuristic models to predict changes in genetic variation that may occur in these populations as a result of reductions in available mountaintop habitat in response to global warming. Location Habitat islands of conifer forest on mountaintops in the American Southwest. Methods Relationships between island area and isolation with measures of allozyme variation in four species of small mammal, namely the least chipmunk (Tamias minimus), Colorado chipmunk (Tamias quadrivittatus), red squirrel (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus), and Mexican woodrat (Neotoma mexicana), were determined using correlation and regression techniques. Significant relationships between island area and genetic variation were used to develop three distinct statistical models with which to predict changes in genetic variation following reduction in insular habitat area arising from global warming. Results Patterns of genetic variation in each species conformed to evolutionary predictions. In general, island area was the most important determinant of heterozygosity, while island isolation was the most important determinant of polymorphism and allelic diversity. The heuristic models predicted widespread reductions in genetic variation, the extent of which depended on the population and model considered. Main conclusions The results support a generalized pattern of genetic variation for any species with an insular distribution, with reduced variation in smaller, more isolated populations. We predict widespread reductions in genetic variation in isolated populations of montane small mammals in the American Southwest as a result of global warming. We conclude that climate‐induced reductions in the various dimensions of genetic variation may increase the probability of population extinction in both the short and long term.     

The genetic structure of the European breeding populations of a declining farmland bird,the ortolan bunting (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Emberiza hortulana</Emphasis>), reveals conservation priorities

Anthropogenic activities, such as agricultural intensification, caused large declines in biodiversity, including farmland birds. In addition to demographic consequences, anthropogenic activities can result in loss of genetic diversity, reduction of gene flow and altered genetic structure. We investigated the distribution of the genetic variation of a declining farmland and long-distance migratory bird, the ortolan bunting Emberiza hortulana, across its European breeding range to assess the impact of human-driven population declines on genetic diversity and structure in order to advise conservation priorities. The large population declines observed have not resulted in dramatic loss of genetic diversity, which is moderate to high and constant across all sampled breeding sites. Extensive gene flow occurs across the breeding range, even across a migratory divide, which contributes little to genetic structuring. However, gene flow is asymmetric, with the large eastern populations acting as source populations for the smaller western ones. Furthermore, breeding populations that underwent the largest declines, in Fennoscandia and Baltic countries, appear to be recently isolated, with no gene exchange occurring with the eastern or the western populations. These are signs for concern as declines in the eastern populations could affect the strength of gene flow and in turn affect the western populations. The genetic, and demographic, isolation of the northern populations make them particularly sensitive to loss of genetic diversity and to extinction as no immigration is occurring to counter-act the drastic declines. In such a situation, conservation efforts are needed across the whole breeding range: in particular, protecting the eastern populations due to their key role in maintaining gene flow across the range, and focussing on the northern populations due to their recent isolation and endangered status.     

High gene flow across large geographic scales reduces extinction risk for a highly specialised coral feeding butterflyfish

The vulnerability of ecologically specialised species to environmental fluctuations has been well documented. However, population genetic structure can influence vulnerability to environmental change and recent studies have indicated that specialised species may have lower genetic diversity and greater population structuring compared to their generalist counterparts. To examine whether there were differences in population genetic structure between a dietary specialist (Chaetodon trifascialis) and a dietary generalist (Chaetodon lunulatus) we compared the demographic history and levels of gene flow of two related coral-feeding butterflyfishes. Using allele frequencies of ≥11 microsatellite loci and >350 bases of mitochondrial control region sequence our analyses of C. trifascialis and C. lunulatus from five locations across the Pacific Ocean revealed contrasting demographic histories and levels of genetic structure. Heterozygosity excess tests, neutrality tests and mismatch distributions were all highly significant in the dietary specialist C. trifascialis (all P < 0.01), suggesting genetic bottlenecks have occurred in all locations. In contrast, we found little evidence of genetic bottlenecks for the dietary generalist C. lunulatus. High gene flow and low genetic structuring was detected among locations for C. trifascialis (amova: R(ST) = 0.0027, P = 0.371; Φ(ST) = 0.068, P < 0.0001). Contrary to our expectations, a greater level of genetic structuring between locations was detected for C. lunulatus (amova: R(ST) = 0.0277, Φ(ST) = 0.166, both P < 0.0001). These results suggest that dietary specialisation may affect demographic history through reductions in population size following resource declines, without affecting population structure through reductions in gene flow in the same way that habitat specialisation appears to. Although C. trifascialis is highly vulnerable to coral loss, the high gene flow detected here suggests populations will be able to recover from local declines through the migration of individuals.     

Diversification in a biodiversity hot spot: landscape correlates of phylogeographic patterns in the African spotted reed frog

The Eastern Afromontane Biodiversity Hotspot is known for microendemism and exceptional population genetic structure. The region's landscape heterogeneity is thought to limit gene flow between fragmented populations and create opportunities for regional adaptation, but the processes involved are poorly understood. Using a combination of phylogeographic analyses and circuit theory, I investigate how characteristics of landscape heterogeneity including regional distributions of slope, rivers and streams, habitat and hydrological basins (drainages) impact genetic distance among populations of the endemic spotted reed frog (Hyperolius substriatus), identifying corridors of connectivity as well as barriers to dispersal. Results show that genetic distance among populations is most strongly correlated to regional and local hydrologic structure and the distribution of suitable habitat corridors, not isolation by distance. Contrary to expectations, phylogeographic structure is not coincident with the two montane systems, but instead corresponds to the split between the region's two major hydrological basins (Zambezi and East Central Coastal). This results in a paraphyletic relationship for the Malawian Highlands populations with respect to the Eastern Arc Mountains and implies that the northern Malawian Highlands are the diversity centre for H. substriatus. Although the Malawian Highlands collectively hold the greatest genetic diversity, individual populations have lower diversity than their Eastern Arc counterparts, with an overall pattern of decreasing population diversity from north to south. Through the study of intraspecific differentiation across a mosaic of ecosystem and geographic heterogeneity, we gain insight into the processes of diversification and a broader understanding of the role of landscape in evolution.     

Climate‐driven range shifts explain the distribution of extant gene pools and predict future loss of unique lineages in a marine brown alga

The climate‐driven dynamics of species ranges is a critical research question in evolutionary ecology. We ask whether present intraspecific diversity is determined by the imprint of past climate. This is an ongoing debate requiring interdisciplinary examination of population genetic pools and persistence patterns across global ranges. Previously, contrasting inferences and predictions have resulted from distinct genomic coverage and/or geographical information. We aim to describe and explain the causes of geographical contrasts in genetic diversity and their consequences for the future baseline of the global genetic pool, by comparing present geographical distribution of genetic diversity and differentiation with predictive species distribution modelling (SDM) during past extremes, present time and future climate scenarios for a brown alga, Fucus vesiculosus. SDM showed that both atmospheric and oceanic variables shape the global distribution of intertidal species, revealing regions of persistence, extinction and expansion during glacial and postglacial periods. These explained the distribution and structure of present genetic diversity, consisting of differentiated genetic pools with maximal diversity in areas of long‐term persistence. Most of the present species range comprises postglacial expansion zones and, in contrast to highly dispersive marine organisms, expansions involved only local fronts, leaving distinct genetic pools at rear edges. Besides unravelling a complex phylogeographical history and showing congruence between genetic diversity and persistent distribution zones, supporting the hypothesis of niche conservatism, range shifts and loss of unique genetic diversity at the rear edge were predicted for future climate scenarios, impoverishing the global gene pool.     

Projected Loss of a Salamander Diversity Hotspot as a Consequence of Projected Global Climate Change

Background

Significant shifts in climate are considered a threat to plants and animals with significant physiological limitations and limited dispersal abilities. The southern Appalachian Mountains are a global hotspot for plethodontid salamander diversity. Plethodontids are lungless ectotherms, so their ecology is strongly governed by temperature and precipitation. Many plethodontid species in southern Appalachia exist in high elevation habitats that may be at or near their thermal maxima, and may also have limited dispersal abilities across warmer valley bottoms.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We used a maximum-entropy approach (program Maxent) to model the suitable climatic habitat of 41 plethodontid salamander species inhabiting the Appalachian Highlands region (33 individual species and eight species included within two species complexes). We evaluated the relative change in suitable climatic habitat for these species in the Appalachian Highlands from the current climate to the years 2020, 2050, and 2080, using both the HADCM3 and the CGCM3 models, each under low and high CO₂ scenarios, and using two-model thresholds levels (relative suitability thresholds for determining suitable/unsuitable range), for a total of 8 scenarios per species.

Conclusion/Significance

While models differed slightly, every scenario projected significant declines in suitable habitat within the Appalachian Highlands as early as 2020. Species with more southern ranges and with smaller ranges had larger projected habitat loss. Despite significant differences in projected precipitation changes to the region, projections did not differ significantly between global circulation models. CO₂ emissions scenario and model threshold had small effects on projected habitat loss by 2020, but did not affect longer-term projections. Results of this study indicate that choice of model threshold and CO₂ emissions scenario affect short-term projected shifts in climatic distributions of species; however, these factors and choice of global circulation model have relatively small affects on what is significant projected loss of habitat for many salamander species that currently occupy the Appalachian Highlands.     

Projected impacts of climate and land-use change on the global diversity of birds

Over the past few decades, land-use and climate change have led to substantial range contractions and species extinctions. Even more dramatic changes to global land cover are projected for this century. We used the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios to evaluate the exposure of all 8,750 land bird species to projected land-cover changes due to climate and land-use change. For this first baseline assessment, we assumed stationary geographic ranges that may overestimate actual losses in geographic range. Even under environmentally benign scenarios, at least 400 species are projected to suffer >50% range reductions by the year 2050 (over 900 by the year 2100). Although expected climate change effects at high latitudes are significant, species most at risk are predominantly narrow-ranged and endemic to the tropics, where projected range contractions are driven by anthropogenic land conversions. Most of these species are currently not recognized as imperiled. The causes, magnitude and geographic patterns of potential range loss vary across socioeconomic scenarios, but all scenarios (even the most environmentally benign ones) result in large declines of many species. Whereas climate change will severely affect biodiversity, in the near future, land-use change in tropical countries may lead to yet greater species loss. A vastly expanded reserve network in the tropics, coupled with more ambitious goals to reduce climate change, will be needed to minimize global extinctions.     

Climate as a driver of tropical insular diversity: comparative phylogeography of two ecologically distinctive frogs in Puerto Rico

The effects of late Quaternary climate on distributions and evolutionary dynamics of insular species are poorly understood in most tropical archipelagoes. We used ecological niche models under past and current climate to derive hypotheses regarding how stable climatic conditions shaped genetic diversity in two ecologically distinctive frogs in Puerto Rico. Whereas the mountain coquí Eleutherodactylus portoricensis is restricted to montane forest in the Cayey and Luquillo Mountains, the red‐eyed coquí E. antillensis is a habitat generalist distributed across the entire Puerto Rican Bank (Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, excluding St Croix). To test our hypotheses, we conducted phylogeographic and population genetic analyses based on mitochondrial and nuclear loci of each species across their range in Puerto Rico. Patterns of population differentiation in E. portoricensis, but not in E. antillensis, supported our hypotheses. For E. portoricensis, these patterns include: individuals isolated by long‐term unsuitable climate in the Río Grande de Loíza Basin in eastern Puerto Rico belong to different genetic clusters; past and current climate strongly predicted genetic differentiation; and Cayey and Luquillo Mountains populations split prior to the last interglacial. For E. antillensis, these patterns include: genetic clusters did not fully correspond to predicted long‐term unsuitable climate; and past and current climate weakly predicted patterns of genetic differentiation. Genetic signatures in E. antillensis are consistent with a recent range expansion into western Puerto Rico, possibly resulting from climate change and anthropogenic influences. As predicted, regions with a large area of long‐term suitable climate were associated with higher genetic diversity in both species, suggesting larger and more stable populations. Finally, we discussed the implications of our findings for developing evidence‐based management decisions for E. portoricensis, a taxon of special concern. Our findings illustrate the role of persistent suitable climatic conditions in promoting the persistence and diversification of tropical island organisms.     

Genetic structure,diversity and distribution of a threatened lizard affected by widespread habitat fragmentation

Understanding the demographic consequences of habitat loss on populations is essential for the conservation of threatened species. The threatened swamp skink (Lissolepis coventryi) is restricted to fragmented wetland habitats in Victoria and southeast South Australia. It has experienced significant habitat loss in the last 150 years, particularly around the Melbourne metropolitan area, where several small and isolated populations remain. Using mtDNA and nuDNA SNPs, we examined distribution patterns and population structure to infer evolutionary history and genetic distinctiveness of populations throughout the species’ range. For populations in the Melbourne metropolitan area, we examined genetic diversity. We found the species to be highly divergent, separating into two distinct lineages to the east and west of Melbourne, likely due to geological and climate influences causing isolation of populations. Species’ detectability was low, particularly in the far east despite relatively intact habitat and presumed higher abundance. Melbourne populations showed signs of limited genetic diversity. We suggest that translocations to promote gene diversity amongst these populations, together with habitat restoration and protection, present an important management strategy for L. coventryi.

     

Climate‐change winners and losers: stream macroinvertebrates of a submontane region in Central Europe

1. Freshwater ecosystems will be profoundly affected by global climate change, especially those in mountainous areas, which are known to be particularly vulnerable to warming temperatures. We modelled impacts of climate change on the distribution ranges of 38 species of benthic stream macroinvertebrates from nine macroinvertebrate orders covering all river zones from the headwaters to large river reaches. 2. Species altitudinal shifts as well as range changes up to the year 2080 were simulated using the A2a and B2a Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate‐warming scenarios. Presence‐only species distribution models were constructed for a stream network in Germany’s lower mountain ranges by means of consensus projections of four algorithms, as implemented in the BIOMOD package in R (GLM, GAM, GBM and ANN). 3. Species were predicted to shift an average of 122 and 83 m up in altitude along the river continuum by the year 2080 under the A2a and B2a climate‐warming scenarios, respectively. No correlation between altitudinal shifts and mean annual air temperature of species’ occurrence could be detected. 4. Depending on the climate‐warming scenario, most or all (97% for A2a and 100% for B2a) of the macroinvertebrate species investigated were predicted to survive under climate change in the study area. Ranges were predicted to contract for species that currently occur in streams with low annual mean air temperatures but expand for species that inhabit rivers where air temperatures are higher. 5. Our models predict that novel climate conditions will reorganise species composition and community structure along the river continuum. Possible effects are discussed, including significant reductions in population size of headwater species, eventually leading to a loss of genetic diversity. A shift in river species composition is likely to enhance the establishment of non‐native macroinvertebrates in the lower reaches of the river continuum.