中国东北样带（NECT）：十年集成与未来挑战

作为“国际地圈-生物圈计划(IGBP)”的15条陆地样带之一,中国东北样带(Northeast China Transect,NECT)在IGBP核心项目“全球变化与陆地生态系统(GCTE)”中已经建立10年之久。该样带位于中纬度温带半干旱地区,跨越北纬42~46,东经110~132,其主要全球变化驱动因素为降水,次要驱动因素为土地利用强度。在过去的10年里,中国东北样带的研究进展表现在以下几个方面:生态数据库发展、气候及其变异性、植物对环境的生态生理响应、植被和景观变化、生物多样性格局及其变化、植物功能型和植物性状及气候梯度分析、生产力和碳动态、花粉-植被相互关系、痕量气体放散、土地利用和土地覆盖变化以及生物地理和生物地球化学模拟。为达到更高水平的集成研究,中国东北样带今后需要:统一框架下的坚实的基础数据集、进一步的野外实验和观测、从斑块、景观到生物群区尺度的植被结构、过程和功能的集成模拟、样带内和与其他IGBP样带研究结果的相互比较、多学科交叉研究、国内和国际协作以及完整的科学计划和实施对策。     

Biotic and abiotic factors determine species diversity–productivity relationships in mountain meadows

生物和非生物因素决定高山草甸物种多样性-生产力相互关系 自然条件下物种多样性-生产力相互关系取决于生物和非生物因素，但其相对重要性及相互作用仍不清晰，特别是在未来的气候变化情景下。为此，我们在中国玉龙雪山3处不同海拔的高山草甸开展了模拟气候变暖和大气氮沉降的完全随机组块析因试验。除物种多样性外，我们根据株高、比叶面积、叶片碳、氮、磷含量计算了实验处理下草甸植物群落的功能多样性，并将其作为关键生物因素。此外，我们测量了气温、降雨以及土壤的化学属性作为潜在重要的非生物因素。我们利用广义线性混合模型研究了物种多样性和植物生产力对海拔、增温、施肥及其可能的交互作用的响应，同时评估了上述生物和非生物因素对物种多样性-生产力相互关系的影响。研究结果表明，物种多样性随海拔升高而降低并且在增温处理下有下降趋势且在中间海拔最为强烈。相对而言，植物生产力仅随海拔升高而下降。功能丰富度、最高气温、土壤pH对物种多样性-生产力相互关系表现出强烈的负交互作用，即物种多样性-生产力相互关系随着这些因素的增加从正相互关系变为中性关系，然后变为轻微的负相互关系。我们的研究指出短期增温对高山草甸物种多样性的负面影响，并强调生物和非生物因素决定了自然条件下物种多样性-生产力相互关系。     

BIOME系列模型: 主要原理与应用

 基于过程的平衡态陆地生物圈模型-BIOME系列及其动态发展(LPJ-DGVM: Sitch et al.,2000) 已经成为模拟大尺度(全球至区域)的植被地理分布、净第一性生产力和碳平衡以及预测气候变化对陆地生态系统潜在影响的有效工具。本文综述了BIOME系列模型的发展过程,包括每个模型的主要原理、优点和缺陷,论述了模型在国际以及我国全球变化研究中的应用,并简单讨论了模型未来发展的趋势。以植物功能型作为基本研究单元,BIOME系列模型的控制因素从单纯的生物气候变量和生态生理限制因子(BIOME1),发展     

基于植物-地形关系的物种丰富度空间格局预测——GAMs途径的一种应用

将基于样本调查数据的群落-生境因子回归分析与GIS支持下的植物属性空间格局预测结合起来,是国际上植被-环境关系定量研究的新途径。通用可加性模型（GAM）的非参数属性使之具有对不同数据类型的广泛适应性,成为这种“回归分析＋空间预测”途经的有效手段;不同程度上依赖于数字高程模型的环境空间数据集是实现空间预测的必要条件。介绍了这一新的研究途径,并应用于案例研究区域植物多样性指标空间格局的预测和分析。野外调查的一组样方地形特征指标和植物多样性指标（包括样方物种丰富度及乔木、灌木、草本、常绿木本、珍稀种类的丰富度）,分别作为预测变量和响应变量,建立GAM模型。结合研究区域10m分辨率的数字高程模型,对该区域植物物种丰富度的空间格局进行空间预测,并对预测模型和结果进行统计分析和检验。结果表明：（1）不同的多样性指标具有不同的模型结构和模拟效果,重复模拟的结果稳定性也不同,反映了所受地形因子影响的差异;（2）影响各多样性指标空间格局的地形变量主要是坡位和坡度等小尺度特征,大尺度海拔因素的影响并不显著;（3）模拟结果与独立检验数据的相关分析表明,对乔木种、草本种、珍稀种的模拟全部有效;对常绿种和样方物种总数的模拟部分有效;而对灌木种丰富度的预测基本失败。（4）模型预测变量有效性和全面性决定了模型对数据的解释能力,样本大小对模型的稳定性和可靠性也有显著影响。就地形因子对生境条件的代表性、模拟误差的来源及GAMs模型的优缺点和应用前景进行了讨论。     

森林土壤有机碳分解对模拟增温的响应

由化石燃料燃烧和土地利用变化引起的全球气候变暖是地球上最严重的人为干扰之一,对陆地生态系统结构和功能产生重要的影响。土壤有机碳（SOC）是陆地生态系统最大的碳库,其微小变化都会影响全球碳平衡和气候变化。近30年来,国内外学者在不同森林生态系统相继开展了野外模拟增温对SOC分解的影响及其调控机制研究。基于在全球建立的26个野外模拟气候变暖实验平台,系统分析增温对森林生态系统SOC分解的影响格局和潜在机制,发现增温通常促进森林SOC的分解,对气候变暖产生正反馈作用。然而,因增温方式和持续时间、土壤微生物群落结构和功能的多样性、SOC结构和组成的复杂性、植物-土壤-微生物之间相互作用以及森林类型等不同而存在差异,导致人们对森林SOC分解响应气候变暖的程度及时空格局变化缺乏统一的认识,且各类生物和非生物因子的相对贡献尚不清楚。基于已有研究,从土壤微生物群落结构和功能、有机碳组分以及植物-土壤-微生物互作3个方面构建了气候变暖影响SOC分解的概念框架,并进一步阐述了今后的重点研究方向,以期深入理解森林生态系统碳-气候反馈效应,为制定森林生态系统管理措施和实现"碳中和"提供科学依据。1）加强模拟增温对不同森林生态系统（特别是热带亚热带森林生态系统） SOC分解的长期观测研究,查明SOC分解的时空动态特征;2）加强土壤微生物功能群与SOC分解之间关系的研究,揭示SOC分解对增温响应的微生物学机制;3）形成统一的SOC组分研究方法,揭示不同碳组分对增温的响应特征和机制;4）加强森林生态系统植物-土壤-微生物间相互作用对模拟增温的响应及其对SOC分解调控的研究;5）加强模拟增温与其他全球变化因子（例如降水格局变化、土地利用变化、大气氮沉降）对SOC分解的交互作用,为更好评估未来全球变化背景下森林土壤碳动态及碳汇功能的维持提供理论基础。     

土地利用约束下中国东部南北样带生产力和植被分布对全球变化的响应

对现有的区域植被动态模拟模型进行了改进,使之包含了土地利用分布格局对植被和生态系统相关过程的影响.改进后的模型被用于研究中国东部南北样带(NSTEC)植被和净第一性生产力对未来气候变化的响应.模拟结果显示土地利用格局对未来气候条件下植被分布的变迁和生产力形成过程有非常显著的影响.与没有土地利用约束的情形相比较,土地利用作为限制条件缓减了植被类型之间的竞争,从而减少了模拟的样带区域内常绿阔叶林,但增加了模拟灌木和草地的分布.土地利用约束使得模拟得到的当前条件下的净第一性生产力更为接近实际情况,且未来气候条件下的生产力改变量更为可信.对未来CO2倍增条件下7个大气环流模型预测的气候情景的模拟结果表明:落叶阔叶林将显著增加,但针叶林、灌木和草原的分布将下降.未来气候条件下NSTEC样带的净第一性生产力总量将增加.预测样带北部的净第一性生产力的变化范围大于样带南部.温度变化比降水变化对样带的生产力具有更强的控制.     

土地利用约束下中国东部南北样带生产力和植被分布对全球变化的响应

对现有的区域植被动态模拟模型进行了改进,使之包含了土地利用分布格局对植被和生态系统相关过程的影响。改进后的模型被用地研究中国东部南北样带(NSTEC)植被和净第一性生产力对未来气候变化的响应。模拟结果显示土地利用格局对未来气候条件下植被分布的变迁和生产力形成过程有非常显著的影响。与没有土地利用约束的情形相比较,土地利用作为限制条件缓减了植被类型之间的竞争,从而减少了模拟的样带区域内常绿阔叶林,但增加了模拟灌木和草地的分布。土地利用约束使得模拟得到的当前条件下的净第一性生产力更为接近实际情况,且未来气候条件下的生产力改变量更为可信。对未来CO2倍增条件下7个大气环流模型预测的气候情景的模拟结果表明：落叶阔叶林将显著增加,但针叶林、灌木和草原的分布将下降。未来气候条件下NSTEC样带的净第一性生产力总量将增加。预测样带北部的净第一性生产力的变化范围大于样带南部。温度变化比降水变化对样带的生产力具有更强的控制。     

全球气候变化下植物水分利用效率研究进展

气候变化是20世纪80年代以来全球最为关注的环境问题之一,显著影响着植物的生产力以及水分运移和利用格局,改变植物个体、群落及生态系统的水分利用效率（WUE）,最终影响植被分布格局和群落结构.开展植物WUE的研究有助于理解和预测陆地植被对全球变化的响应和适应对策,从而为应对全球变化提供新的依据.本文从叶片、个体、群体或生态系统等不同尺度简要介绍了植物水分利用效率的概念及测定方法,着重综述了气候变暖、CO₂浓度升高、降水变化和氮沉降等重要气候因子及其复合作用对植物WUE的影响研究进展,以及不同立地条件下植物WUE变化特征及生存适应策略,指出当前研究中存在的问题,并对全球气候变化下植物WUE的研究进行展望.     

CLM3.0-DGVM中植物叶面积指数与气候因子的时空关系

作为陆面模型里植被的特征量,叶面积值数（LAI）和植被覆盖度在陆地-大气相互作用的相关研究里被广泛应用。LAI的模拟是动态植被模式（DVM）的核心任务之一,需要对模拟的LAI与气候因子间的时空关系进行评估以更好的了解模式性能以及理解植被-大气反馈过程。用1950—1999年的气象数据驱动通用陆面模式的动态植被模式（CLM3.0-DGVM）模拟得到的全球潜在植被的LAI和2001—2003年MODIS观测资料衍生出的LAI数据进行对比,并在此基础上研究当前气候条件下不同植物功能型（PFT）的LAI与不同气候因子在年际尺度上的时空关系,包括运用Moran系数理论分析空间自相关性、运用逐步回归算法构建空间最优一阶线性回归方程、分析模式LAI与气候因子间的滞后相关性。研究表明：1）以MODIS衍生数据作参照,改进后的CLM3.0-DGVM能较好地模拟不同PFTs的LAI年最大值的空间分布型,但是在物候模拟即LAI的季节循环上存在不足;2）植物LAI的分布具有正的空间自相关性。对潜在植物LAI和气候因子进行拟合时不同气候因子对不同PFTs的方差贡献不一样,一般降水最大、风速最小。这反映了陆地生态系统和气候间复杂的相互关系;3）模式模拟的LAI和气候因子有显著的1～2年的滞后相关,其中光照、降水和LAI的滞后相关性波动较大,而温度、比湿的较小,风速的不明显。这些基于CLM3.0-DGVM的结论在自然界的植物–气候相互作用系统中具有普遍意义：不同地区不同植物受不同气候因子的影响不一样;找出不同PFT的主要气候影响因子和理解其中最关键的生物物理和生物化学过程是至关重要的。进一步工作需要用更精确和更高分辨率的气候数据以及局地观测的LAI对DGVM做评估,同时DGVM本身也需要继续改进（例如加入农作物和灌溉过程的模拟）。     

基于IBIS模型的东北森林净第一性生产力模拟

集成生物圈模型(the integrated biosphere simulator, IBIS)作为目前最复杂的基于动态植被模型的陆面生物模型之一,已经成为模拟大尺度(全球区域)的植被地理分布、净第一性生产力和碳平衡以及预测气候变化对陆地生态系统潜在影响的有效工具.应用IBIS模型对2004～2005年大小兴安岭的植被净第一性生产力(net primary productivity, NPP)进行了定量估算,模拟与研究了大小兴安岭森林生态系统植被NPP的空间分布格局以及不同植被类型的NPP季节变化特征,结果表明:大小兴安岭森林植被年均NPP值为494.7 gCm-2 · a-1,年吸收0.06Pg的大气碳.研究区年均NPP的空间分布主要受热量条件的影响,大兴安岭地区基本上呈现出由北向南增加的趋势,小兴安岭地区除单位面积年均NPP大于1.1kgCm-2 · a-1在小兴安岭北部孙吴和逊克地区分布外,基本上呈现出均匀分布的趋势.加强基础数据研究的同时如何根据中国的实际合理确定模型参数,使模型在我国典型生态系统中应用是值得进一步研究的.     

Quantifying the biologically possible range of steady-state soil and surface climates with climate model simulations

The terrestrial biosphere shapes the exchange fluxes of energy and mass at the land surface. The diversity of plant form and functioning can potentially result in a wide variety of possible climatic conditions at the land surface and in the soil, which in turn feed back to more or less suitable conditions for terrestrial productivity. Here, I use sensitivity simulations to vegetation form and functioning with a global climate model to quantify this possible range of steady-states (“PROSS”) of the surface energy-and mass balances. The surface energy-and water balances over land are associated with substantial sensitivity to vegetation parameters, with precipitation varying by more than a factor of 2, and evapotranspiration by a factor of 5. This range in biologically possible climatic conditions is associated with drastically different levels of vegetation productivity. Optimum conditions for maximum productivity are close to the simulated climate of present-day conditions. These results suggest the conclusions that (a) climate does not determine vegetation form and function, but merely constrains it, and (b) the emergent climatic conditions at the land surface seem to be close to optimal for the functioning of the terrestrial biosphere.     

The role of climate and plant functional trade‐offs in shaping global biome and biodiversity patterns

Aim Two of the oldest observations in plant geography are the increase in plant diversity from the poles towards the tropics and the global geographic distribution of vegetation physiognomy (biomes). The objective of this paper is to use a process‐based vegetation model to evaluate the relationship between modelled and observed global patterns of plant diversity and the geographic distribution of biomes. Location The global terrestrial biosphere. Methods We implemented and tested a novel vegetation model aimed at identifying strategies that enable plants to grow and reproduce within particular climatic conditions across the globe. Our model simulates plant survival according to the fundamental ecophysiological processes of water uptake, photosynthesis, reproduction and phenology. We evaluated the survival of an ensemble of 10,000 plant growth strategies across the range of global climatic conditions. For the simulated regional plant assemblages we quantified functional richness, functional diversity and functional identity. Results A strong relationship was found (correlation coefficient of 0.75) between the modelled and the observed plant diversity. Our approach demonstrates that plant functional dissimilarity increases and then saturates with increasing plant diversity. Six of the major Earth biomes were reproduced by clustering grid cells according to their functional identity (mean functional traits of a regional plant assemblage). These biome clusters were in fair agreement with two other global vegetation schemes: a satellite image classification and a biogeography model (kappa statistics around 0.4). Main conclusions Our model reproduces the observed global patterns of plant diversity and vegetation physiognomy from the number and identity of simulated plant growth strategies. These plant growth strategies emerge from the first principles of climatic constraints and plant functional trade‐offs. Our study makes important contributions to furthering the understanding of how climate affects patterns of plant diversity and vegetation physiognomy from a process‐based rather than a phenomenological perspective.     

Biogeographic historical legacies in the net primary productivity of Northern Hemisphere forests

It has been suggested that biogeographic historical legacies in plant diversity may influence ecosystem functioning. This is expected because of known diversity effects on ecosystem functions, and impacts of historical events such as past climatic changes on plant diversity. However, empirical evidence for a link between biogeographic history and present‐day ecosystem functioning is still limited. Here, we explored the relationships between Late‐Quaternary climate instability, species‐pool size, local species and functional diversity, and the net primary productivity (NPP) of Northern Hemisphere forests using structural equation modelling. Our study confirms that past climate instability has negative effects on plant functional diversity and through that on NPP, after controlling for present‐day climate, soil conditions, stand biomass and age. We conclude that global models of terrestrial plant productivity need to consider the biogeographical context to improve predictions of plant productivity and feedbacks with the climate system.     

生态系统模拟模型的研究进展

从四个方面概述了生态系统模拟模型的发展现状：1)个体及种群,种群动态模型主要模拟在一个生境中单个种的动、植物个体出生或发芽、成长及其死亡过程,还有种内竞争和种间相互作用,主要分析生境中生物之间的相互作用。主要概述了林窗模型和土壤一植物一大气系统模型。2)群落与生态系统,概述了生态系统生产力模型、生物地球化学循环模型及演替模型。主要模拟植物种类在整个生态系统发展过程中的变化,以及植被类型的转变和相关的生物地球化学循环过程的改变,从而反映生物群落对气候变化的响应。3)景观生态系统,景观动态研究包含了时空两个方面的动态变化,一般可分为随机景观模型和基于过程的景观模型。随机模型用于模拟群落格局在演替过程中的动态变化等,基于过程的景观模型深入研究组成景观的各生态系统的空间结构。4)生物圈与地球生态系统,基于过程的陆地生物地球化学模式被用来研究自然生态系统中碳和其它矿物营养物质的潜在通量和蓄积量,较为流行的模式有陆地生态系统模式TEM、CENTURY、法兰克福生物圈模式FBM、Biome-BGC、卡内基-埃姆斯-斯坦福方法CASA等。这些模式己被用于估算自然生态系统对大气CO2加倍及相关气候变化在区域和全球尺度的平衡响应。最后,结合实际工作展望了生态系统模拟模型在各方面的发展方向。     

A global distribution of biodiversity inferred from climatic constraints: results from a process‐based modelling study

We investigated the connection between plant species diversity and climate by using a process‐based, generic plant model. Different ‘species' were simulated by different values for certain growth‐related model parameters. Subsequently, a wide range of values were tested in the framework of a ‘Monte Carlo' simulation for success; that is, the capability of each plant with these parameter combinations to reproduce itself during its lifetime. The range of successful parameter combinations approximated species diversity. This method was applied to a global grid, using daily atmospheric forcing from a climate model simulation. The computed distribution of plant ‘species' diversity compares very well with the observed, global‐scale distribution of species diversity, reproducing the majority of ‘hot spot' areas of biodiversity. A sensitivity analysis revealed that the predicted pattern is very robust against changes of fixed model parameters. Analysis of the climatic forcing and of two additional sensitivity simulations demonstrated that the crucial factor leading to this distribution of diversity is the early stage of a plant's life when water availability is highly coupled to the variability in precipitation because in this stage root‐zone storage of water is small. We used cluster analysis in order to extract common sets of species parameters, mean plant properties and biogeographic regions (biomes) from the model output. The successful ‘species' cannot be grouped into typical parameter combinations, which define the plant's functioning. However, the mean simulated plant properties, such as lifetime and growth, can be grouped into a few characteristic plant ‘prototypes', ranging from short‐lived, fast growing plants, similar to grasses, to long‐lived, slow growing plants, similar to trees. The classification of regions with respect to similar combinations of successful ‘species' yields a distribution of biomes similar to the observed distribution. Each biome has typical levels of climatic constraints, expressed for instance by the number of ‘rainy days' and ‘warm days'. The less the number of days favourable for growth, the greater the level of constraints and the less the ‘species' diversity. These results suggest that climate as a fundamental constraint can explain much of the global scale, observed distribution of plant species diversity.     

Coupling dynamic models of climate and vegetation

Numerous studies have underscored the importance of terrestrial ecosystems as an integral component of the Earth's climate system. This realization has already led to efforts to link simple equilibrium vegetation models with Atmospheric General Circulation Models through iterative coupling procedures. While these linked models have pointed to several possible climate–vegetation feedback mechanisms, they have been limited by two shortcomings: (i) they only consider the equilibrium response of vegetation to shifting climatic conditions and therefore cannot be used to explore transient interactions between climate and vegetation; and (ii) the representations of vegetation processes and land-atmosphere exchange processes are still treated by two separate models and, as a result, may contain physical or ecological inconsistencies. Here we present, as a proof concept, a more tightly integrated framework for simulating global climate and vegetation interactions. The prototype coupled model consists of the GENESIS (version 2) Atmospheric General Circulation Model and the IBIS (version 1) Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. The two models are directly coupled through a common treatment of land surface and ecophysiological processes, which is used to calculate the energy, water, carbon, and momentum fluxes between vegetation, soils, and the atmosphere. On one side of the interface, GENESIS simulates the physics and general circulation of the atmosphere. On the other side, IBIS predicts transient changes in the vegetation structure through changes in the carbon balance and competition among plants within terrestrial ecosystems. As an initial test of this modelling framework, we perform a 30 year simulation in which the coupled model is supplied with modern CO₂ concentrations, observed ocean temperatures, and modern insolation. In this exploratory study, we run the GENESIS atmospheric model at relatively coarse horizontal resolution (4.5° latitude by 7.5° longitude) and IBIS at moderate resolution (2° latitude by 2° longitude). We initialize the models with globally uniform climatic conditions and the modern distribution of potential vegetation cover. While the simulation does not fully reach equilibrium by the end of the run, several general features of the coupled model behaviour emerge. We compare the results of the coupled model against the observed patterns of modern climate. The model correctly simulates the basic zonal distribution of temperature and precipitation, but several important regional biases remain. In particular, there is a significant warm bias in the high northern latitudes, and cooler than observed conditions over the Himalayas, central South America, and north-central Africa. In terms of precipitation, the model simulates drier than observed conditions in much of South America, equatorial Africa and Indonesia, with wetter than observed conditions in northern Africa and China. Comparing the model results against observed patterns of vegetation cover shows that the general placement of forests and grasslands is roughly captured by the model. In addition, the model simulates a roughly correct separation of evergreen and deciduous forests in the tropical, temperate and boreal zones. However, the general patterns of global vegetation cover are only approximately correct: there are still significant regional biases in the simulation. In particular, forest cover is not simulated correctly in large portions of central Canada and southern South America, and grasslands extend too far into northern Africa. These preliminary results demonstrate the feasibility of coupling climate models with fully dynamic representations of the terrestrial biosphere. Continued development of fully coupled climate-vegetation models will facilitate the exploration of a broad range of global change issues, including the potential role of vegetation feedbacks within the climate system, and the impact of climate variability and transient climate change on the terrestrial biosphere.     

Decadal change in wetland–woodland boundaries during the late 20th century reflects climatic trends

Wetlands are important and restricted habitats for dependent biota and play vital roles in landscape function, hydrology and carbon sequestration. They are also likely to be one of the most sensitive components of the terrestrial biosphere to global climate change. An understanding of relationships between wetland persistence and climate is imperative for predicting, mitigating and adapting to the impacts of future climate change on wetland extent and function. We investigated whether mire wetlands had contracted, expanded or remained stable during 1960–2000. We chose a study area encompassing a regional climatic gradient in southeastern Australia, specifically to avoid confounding effects of water extraction on wetland hydrology and extent. We first characterized trends in climate by examining data from local weather stations, which showed a slight increase in precipitation and marked decline in pan evaporation over the relevant period. Remote sensing of vegetation boundaries showed a marked lateral expansion of mires during 1961–1998, and a corresponding contraction of woodland. The spatial patterns in vegetation change were consistent with the regional climatic gradient and showed a weaker co‐relationship to fire history. Resource exploitation, wildland fires and autogenic mire development failed to explain the observed expansion of mire vegetation in the absence of climate change. We therefore conclude that the extent of mire wetlands is likely to be sensitive to variation in climatic moisture over decadal time scales. Late 20th‐century trends in climatic moisture may be related primarily to reduced irradiance and/or reduced wind speeds. In the 21st century, however, net climatic moisture in this region is projected to decline. As mires are apparently sensitive to hydrological change, we anticipate lateral contraction of mire boundaries in coming decades as projected climatic drying eventuates. This raises concerns about the future hydrological functions, carbon storage capacity and unique biodiversity of these important ecosystems.     

苔藓植物分布及其物种多样性的研究评述

苔藓植物由于其重要的生态功能及其在植物界中的系统位置而日益受到人们的重视,但是随着全球气候的变化,其多样性受到严重的威胁。文中综述了苔藓植物分布和物种多样性的研究进展,并对其影响因素作了分析,认为环境条件,包括植被、气候、干扰度等均对分布和多样性产生重要影响。对苔藓植物研究方法进行了探讨,认为应对研究方法进行广泛深入的研究,引入新的研究方法和思路,为开展大尺度的苔藓植物综合研究和为生物多样性保护奠定基础。     

Mesocosms Reveal Ecological Surprises from Climate Change

Understanding, predicting, and mitigating the impacts of climate change on biodiversity poses one of the most crucial challenges this century. Currently, we know more about how future climates are likely to shift across the globe than about how species will respond to these changes. Two recent studies show how mesocosm experiments can hasten understanding of the ecological consequences of climate change on species’ extinction risk, community structure, and ecosystem functions. Using a large-scale terrestrial warming experiment, Bestion et al. provide the first direct evidence that future global warming can increase extinction risk for temperate ectotherms. Using aquatic mesocosms, Yvon-Durocher et al. show that human-induced climate change could, in some cases, actually enhance the diversity of local communities, increasing productivity. Blending these theoretical and empirical results with computational models will improve forecasts of biodiversity loss and altered ecosystem processes due to climate change.     

A palaeobotanical perspective on the great end-Permian biotic crisis

Mass extinctions are crucial to understanding changes in biodiversity through time. However, it is still disputed whether extinction dynamics in the marine and terrestrial biotas followed comparable trajectories. For instance, while marine realms have suffered five strong depletions in diversity, the so-called ‘Big Five’ mass extinctions, only the end-Permian event appears to have also resulted in a major abrupt reduction in continental diversity. However, recent evidence based on the diversity dynamics of vegetation has suggested the presence of two major episodes of extinction in the terrestrial environments, at the end-Carboniferous and the end-Permian times. This apparent contradiction is addressed in the present study. Here, we show that while the end-Carboniferous plant extinction was focused on particular environments (e.g. tropical wetlands) and affected mainly the free-sporing plant diversity (i.e. lycopsids, ferns and progymnosperms), only the end-Permian mass extinction had devastating effects on vegetation on a global scale. If we take the biosphere as a whole, the results highlight that the end-Permian biotic crisis was the only genuine global mass extinction event, affecting widely both the marine and terrestrial environments.