Diversity and coexistence are influenced by time‐dependent species interactions in a predator–prey system

Although numerous studies show that communities are jointly influenced by predation and competitive interactions, few have resolved how temporal variability in these interactions influences community assembly and stability. Here, we addressed this challenge in experimental microbial microcosms by employing empirical dynamic modelling tools to: (1) detect causal interactions between prey species in the absence and presence of a predator; (2) quantify the time‐varying strength of these interactions and (3) explore stability in the resulting communities. Our findings show that predators boost the number of causal interactions among community members, and lead to reduced dynamic stability, but higher coexistence among prey species. These results correspond to time‐varying changes in species interactions, including emergence of morphological characteristics that appeared to reduce predation, and indirectly facilitate growth of predator‐susceptible species. Jointly, our findings suggest that careful consideration of both context and time may be necessary to predict and explain outcomes in multi‐trophic systems.     

Periodic travelling waves in cyclic predator–prey systems

Predation is an established cause of cycling in prey species. Here, the ability of predation to explain periodic travelling waves in prey populations, which have recently been found in a number of spatiotemporal field studies, is examined. The nature of periodic waves in these systems, and the way in which they can be generated by the invasion of predators into a prey population is discussed. A theoretical calculation that predicts, as a function of two parameter ratios, whether such an invasion will lead to a stable periodic travelling wave that would be observed in practice is presented ‐ the alternative outcome is spatiotemporal chaos. The calculation also predicts quantitative details of the periodic waves, such as speed and amplitude. The results give new insights into the types of predator‐prey systems in which one would expect to see periodic travelling waves following an invasion by predators.     

Effects of warming on predator–prey interactions – a resource‐based approach and a theoretical synthesis

We theoretically explore consequences of warming for predator–prey dynamics, broadening previous approaches in three ways: we include beyond‐optimal temperatures, predators may have a type III functional response, and prey carrying capacity depends on explicitly modelled resources. Several robust patterns arise. The relationship between prey carrying capacity and temperature can range from near‐independence to monotonically declining/increasing to hump‐shaped. Predators persist in a U‐shaped region in resource supply (=enrichment)‐temperature space. Type II responses yield stable persistence in a U‐shaped band inside this region, giving way to limit cycles with enrichment at all temperatures. In contrast, type III responses convey stability at intermediate temperatures and confine cycles to low and high temperatures. Warming‐induced state shifts can be predicted from system trajectories crossing stability and persistence boundaries in enrichment‐temperature space. Results of earlier studies with more restricted assumptions map onto this graph as special cases. Our approach thus provides a unifying framework for understanding warming effects on trophic dynamics.     

Life‐history traits buffer against heat wave effects on predator–prey dynamics in zooplankton

In addition to an increase in mean temperature, extreme climatic events, such as heat waves, are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity with climate change, which are likely to affect organism interactions, seasonal succession, and resting stage recruitment patterns in terrestrial as well as in aquatic ecosystems. For example, freshwater zooplankton with different life‐history strategies, such as sexual or parthenogenetic reproduction, may respond differently to increased mean temperatures and rapid temperature fluctuations. Therefore, we conducted a long‐term (18 months) mesocosm experiment where we evaluated the effects of increased mean temperature (4°C) and an identical energy input but delivered through temperature fluctuations, i.e., as heat waves. We show that different rotifer prey species have specific temperature requirements and use limited and species‐specific temperature windows for recruiting from the sediment. On the contrary, co‐occurring predatory cyclopoid copepods recruit from adult or subadult resting stages and are therefore able to respond to short‐term temperature fluctuations. Hence, these different life‐history strategies affect the interactions between cyclopoid copepods and rotifers by reducing the risk of a temporal mismatch in predator–prey dynamics in a climate change scenario. Thus, we conclude that predatory cyclopoid copepods with long generation time are likely to benefit from heat waves since they rapidly “wake up” even at short temperature elevations and thereby suppress fast reproducing prey populations, such as rotifers. In a broader perspective, our findings suggest that differences in life‐history traits will affect predator–prey interactions, and thereby alter community dynamics, in a future climate change scenario.     

Reversed predator–prey cycles are driven by the amplitude of prey oscillations

Ecoevolutionary feedbacks in predator–prey systems have been shown to qualitatively alter predator–prey dynamics. As a striking example, defense–offense coevolution can reverse predator–prey cycles, so predator peaks precede prey peaks rather than vice versa. However, this has only rarely been shown in either model studies or empirical systems. Here, we investigate whether this rarity is a fundamental feature of reversed cycles by exploring under which conditions they should be found. For this, we first identify potential conditions and parameter ranges most likely to result in reversed cycles by developing a new measure, the effective prey biomass, which combines prey biomass with prey and predator traits, and represents the prey biomass as perceived by the predator. We show that predator dynamics always follow the dynamics of the effective prey biomass with a classic ¼‐phase lag. From this key insight, it follows that in reversed cycles (i.e., ¾‐lag), the dynamics of the actual and the effective prey biomass must be in antiphase with each other, that is, the effective prey biomass must be highest when actual prey biomass is lowest, and vice versa. Based on this, we predict that reversed cycles should be found mainly when oscillations in actual prey biomass are small and thus have limited impact on the dynamics of the effective prey biomass, which are mainly driven by trait changes. We then confirm this prediction using numerical simulations of a coevolutionary predator–prey system, varying the amplitude of the oscillations in prey biomass: Reversed cycles are consistently associated with regions of parameter space leading to small‐amplitude prey oscillations, offering a specific and highly testable prediction for conditions under which reversed cycles should occur in natural systems.     

Systematic deviations from linear size spectra of lake fish communities are correlated with predator–prey interactions and lake‐use intensity

Size structure of organisms at logarithmic scale (i.e. size spectrum) can often be described by a linear function with a negative slope; however, substantial deviations from linearity have often been found in natural systems. Theoretical studies suggest that greater nonlinearity in community size spectrum is associated with high predator–prey size ratios but low predator–prey abundance ratios; however, empirical evaluation of the effects of predator–prey interactions on nonlinear structures remains scarce. Here, we aim to empirically explore the pattern of the size‐specific residuals (i.e. deviations from the linear regression between the logarithmic fish abundance and the logarithmic mean fish size) by using size spectra of fish communities in 74 German lakes. We found that nonlinearity was strong in lakes with high predator–prey abundance ratios but at low predator–prey size ratios. More specifically, our results suggest that only large predators, even if occurring in low abundances, can control the density of prey fishes in a broad range of size classes in a community and thus promote linearity in the size spectrum. In turn, the lack of large predator fishes may cause high abundances of fish in intermediate size classes, resulting in nonlinear size spectra in these lakes. Moreover, these lakes were characterized by a more intense human use including high fishing pressure and high total phosphorus concentrations, which have negative impacts on the abundance of large, predatory fish. Our findings indicate that nonlinear size spectra may reflect dynamical processes potentially caused by predator–prey interactions. This opens a new perspective in the research on size spectrum, and can be relevant to further quantify the efficiency of energy transfer in aquatic food webs.     

Stability and distribution of predator–prey systems: local and regional mechanisms and patterns

Explaining the coexistence and distribution of species in time and space remains a fundamental challenge. While species coexistence depends on both local and regional mechanisms, it is sometimes unclear which role each mechanism takes in a given ecosystem. Consequently, it is very hard to predict the response of the ecosystem to environmental changes. Here, we develop a model to study spatial patterns of coexistence, focusing on predator–prey and host–parasite populations. We show, both theoretically and empirically, that these systems may exhibit both local and regional patterns and mechanisms of coexistence. Changes in environmental parameters, such as spatial connectivity, may lead to a transition from regional to local coexistence or it may lead directly to extinction, depending on demographic parameters. This demonstrates the importance of simultaneously analysing interacting mechanisms that act at different spatial scales to understand the response of ecosystems to environmental changes.     

Local genetic adaptation generates latitude‐specific effects of warming on predator–prey interactions

Temperature effects on predator–prey interactions are fundamental to better understand the effects of global warming. Previous studies never considered local adaptation of both predators and prey at different latitudes, and ignored the novel population combinations of the same predator–prey species system that may arise because of northward dispersal. We set up a common garden warming experiment to study predator–prey interactions between Ischnura elegans damselfly predators and Daphnia magna zooplankton prey from three source latitudes spanning >1500 km. Damselfly foraging rates showed thermal plasticity and strong latitudinal differences consistent with adaptation to local time constraints. Relative survival was higher at 24 °C than at 20 °C in southern Daphnia and higher at 20 °C than at 24 °C, in northern Daphnia indicating local thermal adaptation of the Daphnia prey. Yet, this thermal advantage disappeared when they were confronted with the damselfly predators of the same latitude, reflecting also a signal of local thermal adaptation in the damselfly predators. Our results further suggest the invasion success of northward moving predators as well as prey to be latitude‐specific. We advocate the novel common garden experimental approach using predators and prey obtained from natural temperature gradients spanning the predicted temperature increase in the northern populations as a powerful approach to gain mechanistic insights into how community modules will be affected by global warming. It can be used as a space‐for‐time substitution to inform how predator–prey interaction may gradually evolve to long‐term warming.     

Ecological costs of climate change on marine predator–prey population distributions by 2050

Identifying and quantifying the effects of climate change that alter the habitat overlap of marine predators and their prey population distributions is of great importance for the sustainable management of populations. This study uses Bayesian joint models with integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) to predict future spatial density distributions in the form of common spatial trends of predator–prey overlap in 2050 under the “business‐as‐usual, worst‐case” climate change scenario. This was done for combinations of six mobile marine predator species (gray seal, harbor seal, harbor porpoise, common guillemot, black‐legged kittiwake, and northern gannet) and two of their common prey species (herring and sandeels). A range of five explanatory variables that cover both physical and biological aspects of critical marine habitat were used as follows: bottom temperature, stratification, depth‐averaged speed, net primary production, and maximum subsurface chlorophyll. Four different methods were explored to quantify relative ecological cost/benefits of climate change to the common spatial trends of predator–prey density distributions. All but one future joint model showed significant decreases in overall spatial percentage change. The most dramatic loss in predator–prey population overlap was shown by harbor seals with large declines in the common spatial trend for both prey species. On the positive side, both gannets and guillemots are projected to have localized regions with increased overlap with sandeels. Most joint predator–prey models showed large changes in centroid location, however the direction of change in centroids was not simply northwards, but mostly ranged from northwest to northeast. This approach can be very useful in informing the design of spatial management policies under climate change by using the potential differences in ecological costs to weigh up the trade‐offs in decisions involving issues of large‐scale spatial use of our oceans, such as marine protected areas, commercial fishing, and large‐scale marine renewable developments.     

Variable prey development time suppresses predator–prey cycles and enhances stability

Although theoretical models have demonstrated that predator–prey population dynamics can depend critically on age (stage) structure and the duration and variability in development times of different life stages, experimental support for this theory is non‐existent. We conducted an experiment with a host–parasitoid system to test the prediction that increased variability in the development time of the vulnerable host stage can promote interaction stability. Host–parasitoid microcosms were subjected to two treatments: Normal and High variance in the duration of the vulnerable host stage. In control and Normal‐variance microcosms, hosts and parasitoids exhibited distinct population cycles. In contrast, insect abundances were 18–24% less variable in High‐ than Normal‐variance microcosms. More significantly, periodicity in host–parasitoid population dynamics disappeared in the High‐variance microcosms. Simulation models confirmed that stability in High‐variance microcosms was sufficient to prevent extinction. We conclude that developmental variability is critical to predator–prey population dynamics and could be exploited in pest‐management programs.     

Temperature and prey density jointly influence trophic and non‐trophic interactions in multiple predator communities

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Temperature,predator–prey interaction strength and population stability

Warming could strongly stabilize or destabilize populations and food webs by changing the interaction strengths between predators and their prey. Predicting the consequences of warming requires understanding how temperature affects ingestion (energy gain) and metabolism (energy loss). Here, we studied the temperature dependence of metabolism and ingestion in laboratory experiments with terrestrial arthropods (beetles and spiders). From this data, we calculated ingestion efficiencies (ingestion/metabolism) and per capita interaction strengths in the short and long term. Additionally, we investigated if and how body mass changes these temperature dependencies. For both predator groups, warming increased metabolic rates substantially, whereas temperature effects on ingestion rates were weak. Accordingly, the ingestion efficiency (the ratio of ingestion to metabolism) decreased in all treatments. This result has two possible consequences: on the one hand, it suggests that warming of natural ecosystems could increase intrinsic population stability, meaning less fluctuations in population density; on the other hand, decreasing ingestion efficiencies may also lead to higher extinction risks because of starvation. Additionally, predicted long‐term per capita interaction strengths decreased with warming, which suggests an increase in perturbation stability of populations, i.e., a higher probability of returning to the same equilibrium density after a small perturbation. Together, these results suggest that warming has complex and potentially profound effects on predator–prey interactions and food‐web stability.     

Assessing changes in arthropod predator–prey interactions through DNA‐based gut content analysis—variable environment,stable diet

Analysing the structure and dynamics of biotic interaction networks and the processes shaping them is currently one of the key fields in ecology. In this paper, we develop a novel approach to gut content analysis, thereby deriving a new perspective on community interactions and their responses to environment. For this, we use an elevational gradient in the High Arctic, asking how the environment and species traits interact in shaping predator–prey interactions involving the wolf spider Pardosa glacialis. To characterize the community of potential prey available to this predator, we used pitfall trapping and vacuum sampling. To characterize the prey actually consumed, we applied molecular gut content analysis. Using joint species distribution models, we found elevation and vegetation mass to explain the most variance in the composition of the prey community locally available. However, such environmental variables had only a small effect on the prey community found in the spider's gut. These observations indicate that Pardosa exerts selective feeding on particular taxa irrespective of environmental constraints. By directly modelling the probability of predation based on gut content data, we found that neither trait matching in terms of predator and prey body size nor phylogenetic or environmental constraints modified interaction probability. Our results indicate that taxonomic identity may be more important for predator–prey interactions than environmental constraints or prey traits. The impact of environmental change on predator–prey interactions thus appears to be indirect and mediated by its imprint on the community of available prey.     

Modelling inducible defences in predator–prey interactions: assumptions and dynamical consequences of three distinct approaches

Inducible defences against predation are widespread in the natural world, allowing prey to economise on the costs of defence when predation risk varies over time or is spatially structured. Through interspecific interactions, inducible defences have major impacts on ecological dynamics, particularly predator–prey stability and phase lag. Researchers have developed multiple distinct approaches, each reflecting assumptions appropriate for particular ecological communities. Yet, the impact of inducible defences on ecological dynamics can be highly sensitive to the modelling approach used, making the choice of model a critical decision that affects interpretation of the dynamical consequences of inducible defences. Here, we review three existing approaches to modelling inducible defences: Switching Function, Fitness Gradient and Optimal Trait. We assess when and how the dynamical outcomes of these approaches differ from each other, from classic predator–prey dynamics and from commonly observed eco‐evolutionary dynamics with evolving, but non‐inducible, prey defences. We point out that the Switching Function models tend to stabilise population dynamics, and the Fitness Gradient models should be carefully used, as the difference with evolutionary dynamics is important. We discuss advantages of each approach for applications to ecological systems with particular features, with the goal of providing guidelines for future researchers to build on.     

Predator–prey interactions in the canopy

Small mammal abundances are frequently limited by resource availability, but predators can exert strong lethal (mortality) and nonlethal (e.g., nest abandonment) limitations. Artificially increasing resource availability for uncommon small mammals provides a unique opportunity to examine predator–prey interactions. We used remote cameras to monitor 168 nest platforms placed in the live tree canopy (n = 23 young forest stands), primarily for arboreal red tree voles (tree voles; Arborimus longicaudus), over 3 years (n = 15,510 monitoring‐weeks). Tree voles frequently built nests and were detected 37% of monitoring‐weeks, whereas flying squirrels (Glaucomys oregonensis) built nests infrequently but were detected 45% of monitoring‐weeks. Most nest predators were detected infrequently (<1% of monitoring‐weeks) and were positively correlated with tree vole presence. Weasels (Mustela spp.) were highly effective predators of tree voles (n = 8 mortalities; 10% of detections) compared to owls (n = 1), flying squirrels (n = 2), and Steller's jays (n = 1). Tree vole activity decreased from 84.1 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 56.2, 111.9) detections/week 1‐week prior to a weasel detection to 4.7 detections/week (95% CI: 1.7, 7.8) 1‐week postdetection and remained low for at least 12 weeks. Interpretations of predator–prey interactions were highly sensitive to how we binned continuously collected data and model results from our finest bin width were biologically counter‐intuitive. Average annual survival of female tree voles was consistent with a previous study (0.14; 95% CI: ?0.04 [0.01], 0.32) and high compared to many terrestrial voles. The relative infrequency of weasel detections and inefficiency of other predators did not provide strong support for the hypothesis that predation per se limited populations. Rather, predation pressure, by reducing occupancy of already scarce nest sites through mortality and nest abandonment, may contribute to long‐term local instability of tree vole populations in young forests. Additional monitoring would be needed to assess this hypothesis.     

Climate warming moderates the impacts of introduced sportfish on multiple dimensions of prey biodiversity

Human‐assisted introductions of exotic species are a leading cause of anthropogenic change in biodiversity; however, context dependencies and interactions with co‐occurring stressors impede our ability to predict their ecological impacts. The legacy of historical sportfish stocking in mountainous regions of western North America creates a unique, natural quasiexperiment to investigate factors moderating invasion impacts on native communities across broad geographic and environmental gradients. Here we synthesize fish stocking records and zooplankton relative abundance for 685 mountain lakes and ponds in the Cascade and Canadian Rocky Mountain Ranges, to reveal the effects of predatory sportfish introduction on multiple taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic dimensions of prey biodiversity. We demonstrate an innovative analytical approach, combining exploratory random forest machine learning with confirmatory multigroup analysis using multivariate partial least‐squares structural equation models, to generate and test hypotheses concerning environmental moderation of stocking impacts. We discovered distinct effects of stocking across different dimensions of diversity, including negligible (nonsignificant) impacts on local taxonomic richness (i.e. alpha diversity) and trophic structure, in contrast to significant declines in compositional uniqueness (i.e. beta diversity) and body size. Furthermore, we found that stocking impacts were moderated by cross‐scale interactions with climate and climate‐related land‐cover variables (e.g. factors linked to treeline position and glaciers). Interactions with physical morphometric and lithological factors were generally of lesser importance, though catchment slope and habitat size constraints were relevant in certain dimensions. Finally, applying space‐for‐time substitution, a strong antagonistic (i.e. dampening) interaction between sportfish predation and warmer temperatures suggests redundancy of their size‐selective effects, meaning that warming will lessen the consequences of introductions in the future and stocked lakes may be less impacted by subsequent warming. While both stressors drive biotic homogenization, our results have important implications for fisheries managers weighing the costs/benefits of stocking—or removing established non‐native populations—under a rapidly changing climate.     

Boosted food web productivity through ocean acidification collapses under warming

Future climate is forecast to drive bottom‐up (resource driven) and top‐down (consumer driven) change to food web dynamics and community structure. Yet, our predictive understanding of these changes is hampered by an over‐reliance on simplified laboratory systems centred on single trophic levels. Using a large mesocosm experiment, we reveal how future ocean acidification and warming modify trophic linkages across a three‐level food web: that is, primary (algae), secondary (herbivorous invertebrates) and tertiary (predatory fish) producers. Both elevated CO₂ and elevated temperature boosted primary production. Under elevated CO₂, the enhanced bottom‐up forcing propagated through all trophic levels. Elevated temperature, however, negated the benefits of elevated CO₂ by stalling secondary production. This imbalance caused secondary producer populations to decline as elevated temperature drove predators to consume their prey more rapidly in the face of higher metabolic demand. Our findings demonstrate how anthropogenic CO₂ can function as a resource that boosts productivity throughout food webs, and how warming can reverse this effect by acting as a stressor to trophic interactions. Understanding the shifting balance between the propagation of resource enrichment and its consumption across trophic levels provides a predictive understanding of future dynamics of stability and collapse in food webs and fisheries production.     

Antagonistic species interaction drives selection for sex in a predator–prey system

The evolutionary maintenance of sexual reproduction has long challenged biologists as the majority of species reproduce sexually despite inherent costs. Providing a general explanation for the evolutionary success of sex has thus proven difficult and resulted in numerous hypotheses. A leading hypothesis suggests that antagonistic species interaction can generate conditions selecting for increased sex due to the production of rare or novel genotypes that are beneficial for rapid adaptation to recurrent environmental change brought on by antagonism. To test this ecology‐based hypothesis, we conducted experimental evolution in a predator (rotifer)–prey (algal) system by using continuous cultures to track predator–prey dynamics and in situ rates of sex in the prey over time and within replicated experimental populations. Overall, we found that predator‐mediated fluctuating selection for competitive versus defended prey resulted in higher rates of genetic mixing in the prey. More specifically, our results showed that fluctuating population sizes of predator and prey, coupled with a trade‐off in the prey, drove the sort of recurrent environmental change that could provide a benefit to sex in the prey, despite inherent costs. We end with a discussion of potential population genetic mechanisms underlying increased selection for sex in this system, based on our application of a general theoretical framework for measuring the effects of sex over time, and interpreting how these effects can lead to inferences about the conditions selecting for or against sexual reproduction in a system with antagonistic species interaction.     

Predator–prey interactions,flight initiation distance and brain size

Prey avoid being eaten by assessing the risk posed by approaching predators and responding accordingly. Such an assessment may result in prey–predator communication and signalling, which entail further monitoring of the predator by prey. An early antipredator response may provide potential prey with a selective advantage, although this benefit comes at the cost of disturbance in terms of lost foraging opportunities and increased energy expenditure. Therefore, it may pay prey to assess approaching predators and determine the likelihood of attack before fleeing. Given that many approaching potential predators are detected visually, we hypothesized that species with relatively large eyes would be able to detect an approaching predator from afar. Furthermore, we hypothesized that monitoring of predators by potential prey relies on evaluation through information processing by the brain. Therefore, species with relatively larger brains for their body size should be better able to monitor the intentions of a predator, delay flight for longer and hence have shorter flight initiation distances than species with smaller brains. Indeed, flight initiation distances increased with relative eye size and decreased with relative brain size in a comparative study of 107 species of birds. In addition, flight initiation distance increased independently with size of the cerebellum, which plays a key role in motor control. These results are consistent with cognitive monitoring as an antipredator behaviour that does not result in the fastest possible, but rather the least expensive escape flights. Therefore, antipredator behaviour may have coevolved with the size of sense organs, brains and compartments of the brain involved in responses to risk of predation.