Population genetics reveals origin and number of founders in a biological invasion

Propagule pressure is considered the main determinant of success of biological invasions: when a large number of individuals are introduced into an area, the species is more likely to establish and become invasive. Nevertheless, precise data on propagule pressure exist only for a small sample of invasive species, usually voluntarily introduced. We studied the invasion of the American bullfrog, Rana catesbeiana, into Europe, a species that is considered a major cause of decline for native amphibians. For this major invader with scarce historical data, we used population genetics data (a partial sequence of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene) to infer the invasion history and to estimate the number of founders of non-native populations. Based on differences between populations, at least six independent introductions from the native range occurred in Europe, followed by secondary translocations. Genetic diversity was strongly reduced in non-native populations, indicating a very strong bottleneck during colonization. We used simulations to estimate the precise number of founders and found that most non-native populations derive from less than six females. This capability of invasion from a very small number of propagules challenges usual management strategies; species with such ability should be identified at an early stage of introduction.     

Niche-based modelling as a tool for predicting the risk of alien plant invasions at a global scale

Predicting the probability of successful establishment of plant species by matching climatic variables has considerable potential for incorporation in early warning systems for the management of biological invasions. We select South Africa as a model source area of invasions worldwide because it is an important exporter of plant species to other parts of the world because of the huge international demand for indigenous flora from this biodiversity hotspot. We first mapped the five ecoregions that occur both in South Africa and other parts of the world, but the very coarse definition of the ecoregions led to unreliable results in terms of predicting invasible areas. We then determined the bioclimatic features of South Africa's major terrestrial biomes and projected the potential distribution of analogous areas throughout the world. This approach is much more powerful, but depends strongly on how particular biomes are defined in donor countries. Finally, we developed bioclimatic niche models for 96 plant taxa (species and subspecies) endemic to South Africa and invasive elsewhere, and projected these globally after successfully evaluating model projections specifically for three well‐known invasive species (Carpobrotus edulis, Senecio glastifolius, Vellereophyton dealbatum) in different target areas. Cumulative probabilities of climatic suitability show that high‐risk regions are spatially limited globally but that these closely match hotspots of plant biodiversity. These probabilities are significantly correlated with the number of recorded invasive species from South Africa in natural areas, emphasizing the pivotal role of climate in defining invasion potential. Accounting for potential transfer vectors (trade and tourism) significantly adds to the explanatory power of climate suitability as an index of invasibility. The close match that we found between the climatic component of the ecological habitat suitability and the current pattern of occurrence of South Africa alien species in other parts of the world is encouraging. If species' distribution data in the donor country are available, climatic niche modelling offers a powerful tool for efficient and unbiased first‐step screening. Given that eradication of an established invasive species is extremely difficult and expensive, areas identified as potential new sites should be monitored and quarantine measures should be adopted.     

Climate change and plant distribution: local models predict high-elevation persistence

Mountain ecosystems will likely be affected by global warming during the 21st century, with substantial biodiversity loss predicted by species distribution models (SDMs). Depending on the geographic extent, elevation range, and spatial resolution of data used in making these models, different rates of habitat loss have been predicted, with associated risk of species extinction. Few coordinated across-scale comparisons have been made using data of different resolutions and geographic extents. Here, we assess whether climate change-induced habitat losses predicted at the European scale (10 × 10' grid cells) are also predicted from local-scale data and modeling (25 m × 25 m grid cells) in two regions of the Swiss Alps. We show that local-scale models predict persistence of suitable habitats in up to 100% of species that were predicted by a European-scale model to lose all their suitable habitats in the area. Proportion of habitat loss depends on climate change scenario and study area. We find good agreement between the mismatch in predictions between scales and the fine-grain elevation range within 10 × 10' cells. The greatest prediction discrepancy for alpine species occurs in the area with the largest nival zone. Our results suggest elevation range as the main driver for the observed prediction discrepancies. Local-scale projections may better reflect the possibility for species to track their climatic requirement toward higher elevations.     

Integrating the Study of Non-native Plant Invasions across Spatial Scales

Non-native (alien, exotic) plant invasions are affecting ecological processes and threatening biodiversity worldwide. Patterns of plant invasions, and the ecological processes which generate these patterns, vary across spatial scales. Thus, consideration of spatial scale may help to illuminate the mechanisms driving biological invasions, and offer insight into potential management strategies. We review the processes driving movement of non-native plants to new locations, and the patterns and processes at the new locations, as they are variously affected by spatial scale. Dispersal is greatly influenced by scale, with different mechanisms controlling global, regional and local dispersal. Patterns of invasion are rarely documented across multiple spatial scales, but research using multi-scale approaches has generated interesting new insights into the invasion process. The ecological effects of plant invasions are also scale-dependent, ranging from altered local community diversity and homogenization of the global flora, to modified biogeochemical cycles and disturbance regimes at regional or global scales. Therefore, the study and control of invasions would benefit from documenting invasion processes at multiple scales.