Globally consistent climate sensitivity of natural disturbances across boreal and temperate forest ecosystems

Disturbance regimes are changing in forests across the world in response to global climate change. Despite the profound impacts of disturbances on ecosystem services and biodiversity, assessments of disturbances at the global scale remain scarce. Here, we analyzed natural disturbances in boreal and temperate forest ecosystems for the period 2001–2014, aiming to 1) quantify their within- and between-biome variation and 2) compare the climate sensitivity of disturbances across biomes. We studied 103 unmanaged forest landscapes with a total land area of 28.2 × 10⁶ ha, distributed across five continents. A consistent and comprehensive quantification of disturbances was derived by combining satellite-based disturbance maps with local expert knowledge of disturbance agents. We used Gaussian finite mixture models to identify clusters of landscapes with similar disturbance activity as indicated by the percent forest area disturbed as well as the size, edge density and perimeter–area-ratio of disturbed patches. The climate sensitivity of disturbances was analyzed using Bayesian generalized linear mixed effect models and a globally consistent climate dataset. Within-biome variation in natural disturbances was high in both boreal and temperate biomes, and disturbance patterns did not vary systematically with latitude or biome. The emergent clusters of disturbance activity in the boreal zone were similar to those in the temperate zone, but boreal landscapes were more likely to experience high disturbance activity than their temperate counterparts. Across both biomes high disturbance activity was particularly associated with wildfire, and was consistently linked to years with warmer and drier than average conditions. Natural disturbances are a key driver of variability in boreal and temperate forest ecosystems, with high similarity in the disturbance patterns between both biomes. The universally high climate sensitivity of disturbances across boreal and temperate ecosystems indicates that future climate change could substantially increase disturbance activity.     

Impacts of climate variability on tree demography in second growth tropical forests: the importance of regional context for predicting successional trajectories

Naturally regenerating and restored second growth forests account for over 70% of tropical forest cover and provide key ecosystem services. Understanding climate change impacts on successional trajectories of these ecosystems is critical for developing effective large‐scale forest landscape restoration (FLR) programs. Differences in environmental conditions, species composition, dynamics, and landscape context from old growth forests may exacerbate climate impacts on second growth stands. We compile data from 112 studies on the effects of natural climate variability, including warming, droughts, fires, and cyclonic storms, on demography and dynamics of second growth forest trees and identify variation in forest responses across biomes, regions, and landscapes. Across studies, drought decreases tree growth, survival, and recruitment, particularly during early succession, but the effects of temperature remain unexplored. Shifts in the frequency and severity of disturbance alter successional trajectories and increase the extent of second growth forests. Vulnerability to climate extremes is generally inversely related to long‐term exposure, which varies with historical climate and biogeography. The majority of studies, however, have been conducted in the Neotropics hindering generalization. Effects of fire and cyclonic storms often lead to positive feedbacks, increasing vulnerability to climate extremes and subsequent disturbance. Fragmentation increases forests’ vulnerability to fires, wind, and drought, while land use and other human activities influence the frequency and intensity of fire, potentially retarding succession. Comparative studies of climate effects on tropical forest succession across biogeographic regions are required to forecast the response of tropical forest landscapes to future climates and to implement effective FLR policies and programs in these landscapes.     

Large‐scale disturbance legacies and the climate sensitivity of primary Picea abies forests

Determining the drivers of shifting forest disturbance rates remains a pressing global change issue. Large‐scale forest dynamics are commonly assumed to be climate driven, but appropriately scaled disturbance histories are rarely available to assess how disturbance legacies alter subsequent disturbance rates and the climate sensitivity of disturbance. We compiled multiple tree ring‐based disturbance histories from primary Picea abies forest fragments distributed throughout five European landscapes spanning the Bohemian Forest and the Carpathian Mountains. The regional chronology includes 11,595 tree cores, with ring dates spanning the years 1750–2000, collected from 560 inventory plots in 37 stands distributed across a 1,000 km geographic gradient, amounting to the largest disturbance chronology yet constructed in Europe. Decadal disturbance rates varied significantly through time and declined after 1920, resulting in widespread increases in canopy tree age. Approximately 75% of current canopy area recruited prior to 1900. Long‐term disturbance patterns were compared to an historical drought reconstruction, and further linked to spatial variation in stand structure and contemporary disturbance patterns derived from LANDSAT imagery. Historically, decadal Palmer drought severity index minima corresponded to higher rates of canopy removal. The severity of contemporary disturbances increased with each stand's estimated time since last major disturbance, increased with mean diameter, and declined with increasing within‐stand structural variability. Reconstructed spatial patterns suggest that high small‐scale structural variability has historically acted to reduce large‐scale susceptibility and climate sensitivity of disturbance. Reduced disturbance rates since 1920, a potential legacy of high 19th century disturbance rates, have contributed to a recent region‐wide increase in disturbance susceptibility. Increasingly common high‐severity disturbances throughout primary Picea forests of Central Europe should be reinterpreted in light of both legacy effects (resulting in increased susceptibility) and climate change (resulting in increased exposure to extreme events).     

Moderate disturbances accelerate forest transition dynamics under climate change in the temperate–boreal ecotone of eastern North America

Several temperate tree species are expected to migrate northward and colonize boreal forests in response to climate change. Tree migrations could lead to transitions in forest types, but these could be influenced by several non‐climatic factors, such as disturbances and soil conditions. We analysed over 10,000 forest inventory plots, sampled from 1970 to 2018 in meridional Québec, Canada, to identify what environmental conditions promote or prevent regional‐scale forest transitions. We used a continuous‐time multi‐state Markov model to quantify the probabilities of transitions between forest states (temperate, boreal, mixed, pioneer) as a function of climate (mean temperature and climate moisture index during the growing season), soil conditions (pH and drainage) and disturbances (severity levels of natural disturbances and logging). We further investigate how different disturbance types and severities impact forests' short‐term transient dynamics and long‐term equilibrium using properties of Markov transition matrices. The most common transitions observed during the study period were from mixed to temperate states, as well as from pioneer to boreal forests. In our study, transitions were mainly driven by natural and anthropogenic disturbances and secondarily by climate, whereas soil characteristics exerted relatively minor constraints. While major disturbances only promoted transitions to the pioneer state, moderate disturbances increased the probability of transition from mixed to temperate states. Long‐term projections of our model under the current environmental conditions indicate that moderate disturbances would promote a northward shift of the temperate forest. Moreover, disturbances reduced turnover and convergence time for all transitions, thereby accelerating forest dynamics. Contrary to our expectation, mixed to temperate transitions were not driven by temperate tree recruitment but by mortality and growth. Overall, our results suggest that moderate disturbances could catalyse rapid forest transitions and accelerate broad‐scale biome shifts.     

Estimating carbon carrying capacity in natural forest ecosystems across heterogeneous landscapes: addressing sources of error

Evaluating contributions of forest ecosystems to climate change mitigation requires well‐calibrated carbon cycle models with quantified baseline carbon stocks. An appropriate baseline for carbon accounting of natural forests at landscape scales is carbon carrying capacity (CCC); defined as the mass of carbon stored in an ecosystem under prevailing environmental conditions and natural disturbance regimes but excluding anthropogenic disturbance. Carbon models require empirical measurements for input and calibration, such as net primary production (NPP) and total ecosystem carbon stock (equivalent to CCC at equilibrium). We sought to improve model calibration by addressing three sources of errors that cause uncertainty in carbon accounting across heterogeneous landscapes: (1) data‐model representation, (2) data‐object representation, (3) up‐scaling. We derived spatially explicit empirical models based on environmental variables across landscape scales to estimate NPP (based on a synthesis of global site data of NPP and gross primary productivity, n=27), and CCC (based on site data of carbon stocks in natural eucalypt forests of southeast Australia, n=284). The models significantly improved predictions, each accounting for 51% of the variance. Our methods to reduce uncertainty in baseline carbon stocks, such as using appropriate calibration data from sites with minimal human disturbance, measurements of large trees and incorporating environmental variability across the landscape, have generic application to other regions and ecosystem types. These analyses resulted in forest CCC in southeast Australia (mean total biomass of 360 t C ha^?1, with cool moist temperate forests up to 1000 t C ha^?1) that are larger than estimates from other national and international (average biome 202 t C ha^?1) carbon accounting systems. Reducing uncertainty in estimates of carbon stocks in natural forests is important to allow accurate accounting for losses of carbon due to human activities and sequestration of carbon by forest growth.     

Functional trait variation of forest understorey plant communities across Europe

Global environmental changes are expected to alter the functional characteristics of understorey herb-layer communities, potentially affecting forest ecosystem functioning. However, little is known about what drives the variability of functional traits in forest understories. Here, we assessed the role of different environmental drivers in shaping the functional trait distribution of understorey herbs in fragmented forests across three spatial scales. We focused on 708 small, deciduous forest patches located in 16 agricultural landscape windows, spanning a 2500-km macroclimatic gradient across the temperate forest biome in Europe. We estimated the relative effect of patch-scale, landscape-scale and macroclimatic variables on the community mean and variation of plant height, specific leaf area and seed mass. Macroclimatic variables (monthly temperature and precipitation extremes) explained the largest proportion of variation in community trait means (on average 77% of the explained variation). In contrast, patch-scale factors dominated in explaining community trait variation (on average 68% of the explained variation). Notably, patch age, size and internal heterogeneity had a positive effect on the community-level variability. Landscape-scale variables explained only a minor part of the variation in both trait distribution properties. The variation explained by shared combinations of the variable groups was generally negligible. These findings highlight the importance of considering multiple spatial scales in predictions of environmental-change effects on the functionality of forest understories. We propose that forest management sustainability could benefit from conserving larger, historically continuous and internally heterogeneous forest patches to maximise ecosystem service diversity in rural landscapes.     

Landscape-Scale Controls on Aboveground Forest Carbon Stocks on the Osa Peninsula,Costa Rica

Tropical forests store large amounts of carbon in tree biomass, although the environmental controls on forest carbon stocks remain poorly resolved. Emerging airborne remote sensing techniques offer a powerful approach to understand how aboveground carbon density (ACD) varies across tropical landscapes. In this study, we evaluate the accuracy of the Carnegie Airborne Observatory (CAO) Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) system to detect top-of-canopy tree height (TCH) and ACD across the Osa Peninsula, Costa Rica. LiDAR and field-estimated TCH and ACD were highly correlated across a wide range of forest ages and types. Top-of-canopy height (TCH) reached 67 m, and ACD surpassed 225 Mg C ha^-1, indicating both that airborne CAO LiDAR-based estimates of ACD are accurate in tall, high-biomass forests and that the Osa Peninsula harbors some of the most carbon-rich forests in the Neotropics. We also examined the relative influence of lithologic, topoedaphic and climatic factors on regional patterns in ACD, which are known to influence ACD by regulating forest productivity and turnover. Analyses revealed a spatially nested set of factors controlling ACD patterns, with geologic variation explaining up to 16% of the mapped ACD variation at the regional scale, while local variation in topographic slope explained an additional 18%. Lithologic and topoedaphic factors also explained more ACD variation at 30-m than at 100-m spatial resolution, suggesting that environmental filtering depends on the spatial scale of terrain variation. Our result indicate that patterns in ACD are partially controlled by spatial variation in geologic history and geomorphic processes underpinning topographic diversity across landscapes. ACD also exhibited spatial autocorrelation, which may reflect biological processes that influence ACD, such as the assembly of species or phenotypes across the landscape, but additional research is needed to resolve how abiotic and biotic factors contribute to ACD variation across high biomass, high diversity tropical landscapes.     

Woody riparian plant distributions in western Oregon,USA: comparing landscape and local scale factors

We studied riparian forests along mountain streams in four large watersheds of western Oregon and far northern California, USA, to better understand the multiscale controls on woody riparian vegetation in a geographically complex region. In each of the four-study watersheds, we sampled woody riparian vegetation in161-ha sampling reaches that straddled the stream channel. Within each hectare, we sampled riparian vegetation and local environmental factors in 40 m² sampling plots arrayed along topographic transects. We also surveyed natural disturbance gaps in 6 ha in each watershed to explore the effects of fine scale disturbance on species distributions. We compared species composition across our study watersheds and used Nonmetric Multidimensional Scaling (NMS) and chi-squared analyses to compare the relative importance of landscape scale climate variables and local topographic and disturbance variables in explaining species distributions at sampling plot and hectare scales. We noted substantial turnover in the riparian flora across the region, with greatest numbers of unique species in watersheds at the ends of the regional gradient. In NMS ordinations at both scales, variation in woody riparian species composition showed strongest correlations with climatic variables and Rubus spectabilis cover, but the latter was only an important factor in the two northern watersheds. At the smaller scale, topographic variables were also important. Chi-squared analyses confirmed that more species showed landscape scale habitat preferences (watershed associations) than associations with topographic position (94.7% vs. 42.7% of species tested) or gap versus forest setting (94.7% vs. 24.6% of species tested). The woody riparian flora of western Oregon shows important biogeographic variation; species distributions showed strong associations with climatic variables, which were the primary correlates of compositional change between riparian sites at both scales analyzed. Additional local variation in composition was explained by measures of topography and disturbance.     

Spatial and topographic trends in forest expansion and biomass change,from regional to local scales

Natural forest growth and expansion are important carbon sequestration processes globally. Climate change is likely to increase forest growth in some regions via CO₂ fertilization, increased temperatures, and altered precipitation; however, altered disturbance regimes and climate stress (e.g. drought) will act to reduce carbon stocks in forests as well. Observations of asynchrony in forest change is useful in determining current trends in forest carbon stocks, both in terms of forest density (e.g. Mg ha^?1) and spatially (extent and location). Monitoring change in natural (unmanaged) areas is particularly useful, as while afforestation and recovery from historic land use are currently large carbon sinks, the long‐term viability of those sinks depends on climate change and disturbance dynamics at their particular location. We utilize a large, unmanaged biome (>135 000 km²) which spans a broad latitudinal gradient to explore how variation in location affects forest density and spatial patterning: the forests of the North American temperate rainforests in Alaska, which store >2.8 Pg C in biomass and soil, equivalent to >8% of the C in contiguous US forests. We demonstrate that the regional biome is shifting; gains exceed losses and are located in different spatio‐topographic contexts. Forest gains are concentrated on northerly aspects, lower elevations, and higher latitudes, especially in sheltered areas, whereas loss is skewed toward southerly aspects and lower latitudes. Repeat plot‐scale biomass data (n = 759) indicate that within‐forest biomass gains outpace losses (live trees >12.7 cm diameter, 986 Gg yr^?1) on gentler slopes and in higher latitudes. This work demonstrates that while temperate rainforest dynamics occur at fine spatial scales (<1000 m²), the net result of thousands of individual events is regionally patterned change. Correlations between the disturbance/establishment imbalance and biomass accumulation suggest the potential for relatively rapid biome shifts and biomass changes.     

Disturbance history and stand dynamics in tall open forest and riparian rainforest in the Central Highlands of Victoria

Abstract Spatial heterogeneity in the intensity of past disturbances has directly influenced the structure and composition of present‐day forests around the world. In south‐eastern Australia infrequent, high‐intensity wildfires are a major part of the historical disturbance regime. While these fires are often assumed to produce even‐aged stands, spatial heterogeneity in fire intensity due to highly variable topography may lead to more complex forest age structures. Our study describes the influence of disturbance on the age structure and dynamics of a mosaic of tall, open eucalypt forest, cool temperate rainforest and mixed species forest surrounding Bellel Creek in the Central Highlands of Victoria using dendrochronological techniques. We were particularly interested in the impacts of the 1939 Black Friday fire and its effects on forest age structure and subsequent stand development patterns. Within our study site tall open forest displayed two distinct age cohorts: (i) trees that established immediately after the 1939 fire and accounted for the majority of individuals in the forest, and (ii) scattered groups of older trees estimated to be approximately 200–250 years old. Cool temperate rainforest and mixed forest were also dominated by the post‐1939 fire age cohort. However, a greater proportion of trees in these forest types survived the 1939 fire relative to the tall open forest. The impact of the 1939 fire on the growth of surviving trees was highly variable but generally short‐lived. In most cases growth decreased after the 1939 fire, but generally returned to prefire levels within 1–3 years. Non‐fire disturbances were limited to small‐scale branch‐ and tree‐fall events, although the extreme snowstorm of 1977 appears to have caused extensive damage to rainforest communities. Our study demonstrates the opportunities for dendroecological studies to reconstruct historical dynamics and disturbance patterns in Australian forests and provides important insights into variation in landscape‐scale fire impacts and their effect on subsequent forest development patterns.     

Lowland tapirs facilitate seed dispersal in degraded Amazonian forests

The forests of southeastern Amazonia are highly threatened by disturbances such as fragmentation, understory fires, and extreme climatic events. Large‐bodied frugivores such as the lowland tapir (Tapirus terrestris) have the potential to offset this process, supporting natural forest regeneration by dispersing a variety of seeds over long distances to disturbed forests. However, we know little about their effectiveness as seed dispersers in degraded forest landscapes. Here, we investigate the seed dispersal function of lowland tapirs in Amazonian forests subject to a range of human (fire and fragmentation) and natural (extreme droughts and windstorms) disturbances, using a combination of field observations, camera traps, and light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data. Tapirs travel and defecate more often in degraded forests, dispersing much more seeds in these areas [9,822 seeds per ha/year (CI_95% = 9,106; 11,838)] than in undisturbed forests [2,950 seeds per ha/year (CI_95% = 2,961; 3,771)]. By effectively dispersing seeds across disturbed forests, tapirs may contribute to natural forest regeneration—the cheapest and usually the most feasible way to achieve large‐scale restoration of tropical forests. Through the dispersal of large‐seeded species that eventually become large trees, such frugivores also contribute indirectly to maintaining forest carbon stocks. These functions may be critical in helping tropical countries to achieve their goals to maintain and restore biodiversity and its ecosystem services. Ultimately, preserving these animals along with their habitats may help in the process of natural recovery of degraded forests throughout the tropics. Abstract in Portuguese is available with online material.     

Impact of a drier Early-Mid-Holocene climate upon Amazonian forests

This paper uses a palaeoecological approach to examine the impact of drier climatic conditions of the Early-Mid-Holocene (ca 8000-4000 years ago) upon Amazonia's forests and their fire regimes. Palaeovegetation (pollen data) and palaeofire (charcoal) records are synthesized from 20 sites within the present tropical forest biome, and the underlying causes of any emergent patterns or changes are explored by reference to independent palaeoclimate data and present-day patterns of precipitation, forest cover and fire activity across Amazonia. During the Early-Mid-Holocene, Andean cloud forest taxa were replaced by lowland tree taxa as the cloud base rose while lowland ecotonal areas, which are presently covered by evergreen rainforest, were instead dominated by savannahs and/or semi-deciduous dry forests. Elsewhere in the Amazon Basin there is considerable spatial and temporal variation in patterns of vegetation disturbance and fire, which probably reflects the complex heterogeneous patterns in precipitation and seasonality across the basin, and the interactions between climate change, drought- and fire susceptibility of the forests, and Palaeo-Indian land use. Our analysis shows that the forest biome in most parts of Amazonia appears to have been remarkably resilient to climatic conditions significantly drier than those of today, despite widespread evidence of forest burning. Only in ecotonal areas is there evidence of biome replacement in the Holocene. From this palaeoecological perspective, we argue against the Amazon forest 'dieback' scenario simulated for the future.     

Understanding and predicting frost‐induced tropical tree mortality patterns

Extreme climatic and weather events are increasing in frequency and intensity across the world causing episodes of widespread tree mortality in many forested ecosystems. However, we have a limited understanding about which local factors influence tree mortality patterns, restricting our ability to predict tree mortality, especially within topographically complex tropical landscapes with a matrix of mature and secondary forests. We investigated the effects of two major local factors, topography and forest successional type, on climate‐induced tropical tree mortality patterns using an observational and modeling approach. The northernmost Neotropical dry forest endured an unprecedented episode of frost‐induced tree mortality after the historic February 2011 cold wave hit northwestern Mexico. In a moderately hilly landscape covering mature and secondary tropical dry forests, we surveyed 454 sites for the presence or absence of frost‐induced tree mortality. In addition, across forty‐eight 1 ha plots equally split into the two forest types, we examined 6,981 woody plants to estimate a frost‐disturbance severity metric using the density of frost‐killed trees. Elevation is the main factor modulating frost effects regardless of forest type. Higher occurrence probabilities of frost‐induced tree mortality at lowland forests can be explained by the strong influence of elevation on temperature distribution since heavier cold air masses move downhill during advective frosts. Holding elevation constant, the probability of frost‐induced tree mortality in mature forests was twice that of secondary forests but severity showed the opposite pattern, suggesting a cautious use of occurrence probabilities of tree mortality to infer severity of climate‐driven disturbances. Extreme frost events, in addition to altering forest successional pathways and ecosystem services, likely maintain and could ultimately shift latitudinal and altitudinal range margins of Neotropical dry forests.     

Unraveling the drivers of intensifying forest disturbance regimes in Europe

Natural disturbances like wildfire, windthrow and insect outbreaks are critical drivers of composition, structure and functioning of forest ecosystems. They are strongly climate‐sensitive, and are thus likely to be distinctly affected by climatic changes. Observations across Europe show that in recent decades, forest disturbance regimes have intensified markedly, resulting in a strong increase in damage from wind, bark beetles and wildfires. Climate change is frequently hypothesized as the main driving force behind this intensification, but changes in forest structure and composition associated with management activities such as promoting conifers and increasing standing timber volume (i.e. ‘forest change’) also strongly influence susceptibility to disturbances. Here, we show that from 1958 to 2001, forest change contributed in the same order of magnitude as climate change to the increase in disturbance damage in Europe's forests. Climate change was the main driver of the increase in area burnt, while changes in forest extent, structure and composition particularly affected the variation in wind and bark beetle damage. For all three disturbance agents, damage was most severe when conducive weather conditions and increased forest susceptibility coincided. We conclude that a continuing trend towards more disturbance‐prone conditions is likely for large parts of Europe's forests, and can have strong detrimental effects on forest carbon storage and other ecosystem services. Understanding the interacting drivers of natural disturbance regimes is thus a prerequisite for climate change mitigation and adaptation in forest ecosystem management.     

Natural regeneration as a tool for large‐scale forest restoration in the tropics: prospects and challenges

A major global effort to enable cost‐effective natural regeneration is needed to achieve ambitious forest and landscape restoration goals. Natural forest regeneration can potentially play a major role in large‐scale landscape restoration in tropical regions. Here, we focus on the conditions that favor natural regeneration within tropical forest landscapes. We illustrate cases where large‐scale natural regeneration followed forest clearing and non‐forest land use, and describe the social and ecological factors that drove these local forest transitions. The self‐organizing processes that create naturally regenerating forests and natural regeneration in planted forests promote local genetic adaptation, foster native species with known traditional uses, create spatial and temporal heterogeneity, and sustain local biodiversity and biotic interactions. These features confer greater ecosystem resilience in the face of future shocks and disturbances. We discuss economic, social, and legal issues that challenge natural regeneration in tropical landscapes. We conclude by suggesting ways to enable natural regeneration to become an effective tool for implementing large‐scale forest and landscape restoration. Major research and policy priorities include: identifying and modeling the ecological and economic conditions where natural regeneration is a viable and favorable land‐use option, developing monitoring protocols for natural regeneration that can be carried out by local communities, and developing enabling incentives, governance structures, and regulatory conditions that promote the stewardship of naturally regenerating forests. Aligning restoration goals and practices with natural regeneration can achieve the best possible outcome for achieving multiple social and environmental benefits at minimal cost.     

Spatiotemporally explicit demographic modelling supports a joint effect of historical barriers to dispersal and contemporary landscape composition on structuring genomic variation in a red‐listed grasshopper

Inferring the processes underlying spatial patterns of genomic variation is fundamental to understand how organisms interact with landscape heterogeneity and to identify the factors determining species distributional shifts. Here, we use genomic data (restriction site‐associated DNA sequencing) to test biologically informed models representing historical and contemporary demographic scenarios of population connectivity for the Iberian cross‐backed grasshopper Dociostaurus hispanicus, a species with a narrow distribution that currently forms highly fragmented populations. All models incorporated biological aspects of the focal taxon that could hypothetically impact its geographical patterns of genomic variation, including (a) spatial configuration of impassable barriers to dispersal defined by topographic landscapes not occupied by the species; (b) distributional shifts resulting from the interaction between the species bioclimatic envelope and Pleistocene glacial cycles; and (c) contemporary distribution of suitable habitats after extensive land clearing for agriculture. Spatiotemporally explicit simulations under different scenarios considering these aspects and statistical evaluation of competing models within an Approximate Bayesian Computation framework supported spatial configuration of topographic barriers to dispersal and human‐driven habitat fragmentation as the main factors explaining the geographical distribution of genomic variation in the species, with no apparent impact of hypothetical distributional shifts linked to Pleistocene climatic oscillations. Collectively, this study supports that both historical (i.e., topographic barriers) and contemporary (i.e., anthropogenic habitat fragmentation) aspects of landscape composition have shaped major axes of genomic variation in the studied species and emphasizes the potential of model‐based approaches to gain insights into the temporal scale at which different processes impact the demography of natural populations.     

Conservation strategies for Araucaria Forests in Southern Brazil: assessing current and alternative approaches

Efforts to protect the remaining Araucaria Forest fragments in Southern Brazil have focused on large forests dominated by the threatened species Araucaria angustifolia. However, such an approach can miss significant biodiversity by ignoring smaller forest fragments scattered throughout the landscape, many of which exist on small farms. Here, I evaluate the method used to define a set of natural reserves in Southern Brazil to assess if it captures and preserves the significant biodiversity that exists in this unique biome. I used a relatively simple field sampling methodology and statistical analyses to evaluate floristic and structural parameters, comparing tree species diversity within a large forest fragment (with and without A. angustifolia dominance) to smaller fragments in the surrounding landscape. While stands dominated by A. angustifolia showed primary forest‐like physiognomy, they did not have the levels of diversity expected for old‐growth forests. Traditional forestry parameters, especially basal area and number of individuals, are useful for differentiating forest types in terms of structure. While no single diversity index provides a complete picture of the composition and variation of diversity in forest fragments, when taken together and assessed using extrapolation and comparative statistics, they provide a meaningful method for comparing and identifying high priority areas for conservation. Future conservation strategies should look to alternative approaches for assessing biodiversity across the landscape, while including small‐scale landowners in conservation efforts.     

Disturbances in deciduous temperate forest ecosystems of the northern hemisphere: their effects on both recent and future forest development

Disturbances in forests can kill mature trees, but also create the conditions necessary for the establishment of new tree cohorts and create micro-habitats for new plant and animal species, thereby increasing the species diversity compared to undisturbed stands. We review the types and intensities of disturbances on forests in three regions of the temperate zone of the northern hemisphere: northeastern North America, Central Europe, and East Asia. We focus on (1) the ways in which disturbances affect forest stand development; (2) the differences among the three areas in this regard; (3) the consequences for future forest management. In both northeastern North America and East Asia, hurricanes and typhoons represent the major mode of natural disturbance, while in Central Europe winter windstorms occur after deciduous trees have lost their leaves. Tornadoes can have even greater destructive power (but affect relatively narrow strips of land), and the more severe of these mainly occur in North America. The general disturbance patch system therefore is relatively large in northeastern North America, small in Central Europe, and of intermediate size in temperate East Asia. In addition to wholly natural disturbance factors, human commerce and globalization have enabled new disturbance types by introducing pests and diseases from one region to another. In North America especially, several of the most important foundation species in temperate forests are strongly affected, so that not just the species composition but also the whole forest structure is changing fundamentally. In all three areas in the past the change in land use by growing human populations strongly affected the structure as well as the species composition of forests. Nearly all the recent forest stands of the temperate zone had been used in the past in a particular way, and many of today’s forests had previously been converted into agricultural land. Finally climate change is superimposing itself on forest development worldwide. Nevertheless, climate change is not a new phenomenon, so forest ecosystems in all time periods have been exposed to changing climatic conditions and have had to adapt. Each forest stand therefore represents a unique recent expression of the interaction of environmental conditions and plant species, a “snapshot” of the relevant abiotic and biotic factors, including human impact.     

Carbon cycling and storage in world forests: biome patterns related to forest age

Forest age, which is affected by stand‐replacing ecosystem disturbances (such as forest fires, harvesting, or insects), plays a distinguishing role in determining the distribution of carbon (C) pools and fluxes in different forested ecosystems. In this synthesis, net primary productivity (NPP), net ecosystem productivity (NEP), and five pools of C (living biomass, coarse woody debris, organic soil horizons, soil, and total ecosystem) are summarized by age class for tropical, temperate, and boreal forest biomes. Estimates of variability in NPP, NEP, and C pools are provided for each biome‐age class combination and the sources of variability are discussed. Aggregated biome‐level estimates of NPP and NEP were higher in intermediate‐aged forests (e.g., 30–120 years), while older forests (e.g., >120 years) were generally less productive. The mean NEP in the youngest forests (0–10 years) was negative (source to the atmosphere) in both boreal and temperate biomes (?0.1 and –1.9 Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1, respectively). Forest age is a highly significant source of variability in NEP at the biome scale; for example, mean temperate forest NEP was ?1.9, 4.5, 2.4, 1.9 and 1.7 Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1 across five age classes (0–10, 11–30, 31–70, 71–120, 121–200 years, respectively). In general, median NPP and NEP are strongly correlated (R²=0.83) across all biomes and age classes, with the exception of the youngest temperate forests. Using the information gained from calculating the summary statistics for NPP and NEP, we calculated heterotrophic soil respiration (R_h) for each age class in each biome. The mean R_h was high in the youngest temperate age class (9.7 Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1) and declined with age, implying that forest ecosystem respiration peaks when forests are young, not old. With notable exceptions, carbon pool sizes increased with age in all biomes, including soil C. Age trends in C cycling and storage are very apparent in all three biomes and it is clear that a better understanding of how forest age and disturbance history interact will greatly improve our fundamental knowledge of the terrestrial C cycle.     

Multiple successional pathways in human‐modified tropical landscapes: new insights from forest succession,forest fragmentation and landscape ecology research

Old‐growth tropical forests are being extensively deforested and fragmented worldwide. Yet forest recovery through succession has led to an expansion of secondary forests in human‐modified tropical landscapes (HMTLs). Secondary forests thus emerge as a potential repository for tropical biodiversity, and also as a source of essential ecosystem functions and services in HMTLs. Such critical roles are controversial, however, as they depend on successional, landscape and socio‐economic dynamics, which can vary widely within and across landscapes and regions. Understanding the main drivers of successional pathways of disturbed tropical forests is critically needed for improving management, conservation, and restoration strategies. Here, we combine emerging knowledge from tropical forest succession, forest fragmentation and landscape ecology research to identify the main driving forces shaping successional pathways at different spatial scales. We also explore causal connections between land‐use dynamics and the level of predictability of successional pathways, and examine potential implications of such connections to determine the importance of secondary forests for biodiversity conservation in HMTLs. We show that secondary succession (SS) in tropical landscapes is a multifactorial phenomenon affected by a myriad of forces operating at multiple spatio‐temporal scales. SS is relatively fast and more predictable in recently modified landscapes and where well‐preserved biodiversity‐rich native forests are still present in the landscape. Yet the increasing variation in landscape spatial configuration and matrix heterogeneity in landscapes with intermediate levels of disturbance increases the uncertainty of successional pathways. In landscapes that have suffered extensive and intensive human disturbances, however, succession can be slow or arrested, with impoverished assemblages and reduced potential to deliver ecosystem functions and services. We conclude that: (i) succession must be examined using more comprehensive explanatory models, providing information about the forces affecting not only the presence but also the persistence of species and ecological groups, particularly of those taxa expected to be extirpated from HMTLs; (ii) SS research should integrate new aspects from forest fragmentation and landscape ecology research to address accurately the potential of secondary forests to serve as biodiversity repositories; and (iii) secondary forest stands, as a dynamic component of HMTLs, must be incorporated as key elements of conservation planning; i.e. secondary forest stands must be actively managed (e.g. using assisted forest restoration) according to conservation goals at broad spatial scales.